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Author Topic: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year  (Read 32243 times)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #100 on: May 18, 2020, 12:43:18 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ 17th May

A small SMB daily loss.

The SMB today image shows that it was a combination of low precipitation (blue), sublimation (pink), and the relatively small amount of run-off (red (& pink?)) that resulted from surface melt.

« Last Edit: May 18, 2020, 12:53:45 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #101 on: May 20, 2020, 09:09:18 AM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/


Minuscule SMB losses in the last 4 days, the result of some melt + very low precipitation.
Accumulated SMB gain this year at 500GT is about 50GT below the average.

Modest precipitation and modest melt look set to continue to the end of the month.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #102 on: May 20, 2020, 10:13:20 AM »
& attached is the graph that shows that if SMB gain has peaked, it has peaked about 2 weeks early & somewhere between 50 to 75 GT less than average.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #103 on: May 21, 2020, 09:13:26 AM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/


Data as at 20th May 2020

Minuscule SMB losses in the last 5 days, the result of some melt + very low precipitation.
Accumulated SMB gain this year at 500GT is about 75GT below the average.

Modest precipitation and modest melt look set to continue to the end of the month.

If the SMB gain for this year has peaked at just almost 500GT, it is about 3 weeks early and nearly 100 GT below the average of nearly 600GT.
__________________________________
ps:- I have written to DMI & requested they download the average SMB & Melt daily data. I am hopeful for a +ve result next week
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #104 on: May 23, 2020, 08:30:26 AM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 22 May 2020


I didn't see this sort of melt coming at all. A large area of melt but an SMB gain. If you compare the daily SMB and melt maps you can see..
- In the West & North insolation causing both sublimation (inland)and run-off (coastal).
- in the SouthWest melt is associated with precipitation - but as  rain.

It is a reminder that at lower altitudes precipitation during the warmer months is likely to be a mixture of snow and rain.
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Stephan

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #105 on: May 23, 2020, 08:47:06 AM »
- in the SouthWest melt is associated with precipitation - but as  rain.
Wet and not so warm times are expected in S Grønland. Forecast for Narsarsuaq for May 23 - June 05, 2020.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #106 on: May 28, 2020, 10:41:18 AM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 27 May 2020
SMB cumulative gain still dithering around the current max of 500 GT

The very large melt on 22nd May did not happen - DMI revised the data.

You can see from the maps where at lower altitudes precipitation during the warmer months is likely to be a mixture of snow and rain.

No significant acceleration in melt likely in the next 5 days - but after that GFS says maybe.
Ditto for precipitation.
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Stephan

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #107 on: May 28, 2020, 05:45:30 PM »
Melting season makes a little pause as Freya Gletscher Webcam shows (May 26)
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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #108 on: June 02, 2020, 02:44:19 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 1 June 2020

SMB cumulative up by 5GT since the last posting.
SMB loss of 0.4GT on this day - low oprecip+average melt.

Looks like high afternoon temperatures will generate a significant melt in the next 3 days or so, but moderating after that.
__________________________________
« Last Edit: June 02, 2020, 02:57:11 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #109 on: June 03, 2020, 12:52:23 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

Data as at 2 June 2020

High precipitation greater than above average melt = SMB gain

Note that in the south much precipitation falling as rain but mostly not resulting in run-off

Looks like even higher afternoon temperatures will generate a significant melt in the next 3 days or so, but moderating after that.

Also in the south - rain. If that persists increased run-off to be the result?
__________________________________
[/quote]
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paolo

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #110 on: June 03, 2020, 08:28:33 PM »
Image Sentinel-2 of 02/06 (B8A/B03/B02) of SE Greenland.
The melt seems to be well established

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #111 on: June 04, 2020, 12:32:49 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

Data as at 3 June 2020

Very high precipitation greater than much above average melt = SMB gain


Note that in the south west much precipitation falling as rain but mostly not resulting in run-off.

Looks like continuing high afternoon temperatures will generate a significant melt in the next 3 days or so.

Also in the south - more rain. If that persists increased run-off to be the result? Definitely will do some more damage to the ice sheet in any event.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #112 on: June 05, 2020, 12:18:57 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

Data as at 3 4 June 2020 - same as 3rd June

High precipitation greater than much above average melt = SMB gain (but much less than June 3)


Note that in the south west some precipitation falling as rain but mostly not resulting in run-off.

Looks like continuing high afternoon temperatures will continue the significant melt for the next 3 days or so.

Also in the south - a bit more rain/snow mix but getting dryer. If that high melt persists increased run-off to be the result? Definitely will do some more damage to the ice sheet in any event.
_________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #113 on: June 06, 2020, 01:18:08 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 3 5 June 2020 - same as 3rd & 4th June

High precipitation greater than much above average melt = SMB gain (but much less than June 3)


Note that in the south west some precipitation falling as rain but mostly not resulting in run-off.

In the south - a bit more rain/snow mix but getting dryer in the coming days.
But as Greenland gets dryer looks like temperatures a bit cooler, i.e. less melt.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #114 on: June 07, 2020, 02:48:43 PM »
I wonder if melt + precipitation as rain & snow on such a scale is unusual?
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #115 on: June 09, 2020, 12:36:28 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 3 8 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 7th June

i.e. High precipitation minus much above average melt still = SMB gain (but much less than June 3)


GFS 5 day forecast says afternoon temperatures still much above freezing, and quite a lot of precipitation. Will persistent melt force increasing run-off leading to net SMB loss?
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #116 on: June 10, 2020, 12:05:51 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

Data as at 3 9 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 8th June. Definitely a melting event & set to continue.

i.e. High precipitation minus much above average melt still = SMB gain (but only just)


GFS 5 day forecast says afternoon temperatures still much above freezing, and note the warmth that is developing in the Greenland Sea and the entire East coast of Greenland.

Precipitation, if anything looks like being even higher. But much must fall as rain at low and perhaps even higher altitudes.. Will this persistent melt, especially as rain, force increasing run-off leading to net SMB loss?

This is a very active weather picture. This is a warmer wetter Greenland (at the moment).
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #117 on: June 10, 2020, 07:36:04 PM »
GRACE-FO - Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) mass loss to mid-March 2020.

It looks like the scientists recalculated GIS mass loss going all the way back to 2002. Perhaps this was the cause of a 2 month delay in new data. Hopefully from now on we might get data a bit earlier.

In the period mid-Feb to mid-March SMB increased by 30 GT, while GIS mass reduced by 100GT.
That means in the dead of winter there was a gross mass loss of 130GT - i.e. below surface melting of marine-terminating glaciers does not stop.

The attached graph shows the cumulative GIS gross mass change, cumulative SMB change, and cumulative net GIS mass loss from October 2018. If we get previous year SMB data from DMI, I should be able to go back to previous years.

I also attach cumulative mass loss graphs from 2002 to date. (Note that many months GRACE  data between June 2017 and September 2018 were not collected as the GRACE satellites died before GRACE-FO was launched.)
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #118 on: June 11, 2020, 11:56:46 AM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

Data as at 10 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 8th June. Definitely a melting event & set to continue.

On this day very high precipitation minus much above average melt, results in a  sgnifcant SMB gain


GFS 5 day forecast says afternoon temperatures still much above freezing, and warmth that is developing in the Greenland Sea and the entire East coast of Greenland.

Precipitation, looks like remaining high. But much must fall as rain at low and perhaps even higher altitudes.. Will this persistent melt, especially as rain, force increasing run-off leading to net SMB loss? NOT YET.

This is a very active weather picture. This is a warmer wetter Greenland (at the moment).
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #119 on: June 12, 2020, 12:39:57 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/


Data as at 11 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 10th June.

Definitely a real and very persistent melting event & set to continue.

On this day very high precipitation minus even more above average melt, results in a  significant SMB gain.

GFS 5 day forecast says afternoon temperatures still much above freezing, and yet more warmth  in the Greenland Sea and the entire East coast of Greenland.

Precipitation, looks like remaining high. But much must fall as rain at low and perhaps even higher altitudes.. Will this persistent melt, especially as rain, force increasing run-off leading to net SMB loss? NOT YET.

This is a very active weather picture. This is a warmer wetter Greenland at the moment, with no sign of any change - except perhaps getting even warmer).
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Stephan

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #120 on: June 12, 2020, 02:24:17 PM »
mostly wet in the next days and then drier and warmer in the south. Forecast Narsarsuaq 12 through 25 June, 2020.

dry, mild and sunny and more melt ponds on Freya Gletscher in the (Northern) East of Grønland. It even looks as if the snow on the glacier is melting and bare ice is visible on its surface.

See attached pictures.

Edit: Just by chance I found that grixm has posted the same picture in the Greenland melt season thread.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #121 on: June 13, 2020, 08:57:06 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

Data as at 12 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 10th June.

Definitely a real and very persistent melting event, that looks like moderating a bit and then after 5 days set to increase again..

On this day  high precipitation minus even more well above average melt, results in a  significant SMB gain of just over 3GT.

Definitely a real and very persistent melting event, that looks like moderating a bit and then after 5 days 0r so may increase again..

Precipitation looks like remaining high for the duration.
_________________________________
« Last Edit: June 13, 2020, 09:07:40 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #122 on: June 14, 2020, 06:22:41 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

Data as at 13 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 12th June.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #123 on: June 15, 2020, 02:29:53 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/


Data as at 14 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 13th June.
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oren

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #124 on: June 15, 2020, 06:32:15 PM »
The SMB positive event is becoming quite prolonged, making up a bit of the ground lost during the lackluster accumulation season.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #125 on: June 16, 2020, 10:03:04 AM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

Data as at 15 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 13th June.

Despite these significant daily SMB gains at a time of high melting, the cumulative SMB gain for the year is still well below the long-term average.

Starting at the weekend melt may increase and precipitation decrease.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #126 on: June 17, 2020, 12:51:42 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

Data as at 16 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 115th June.

Despite these significant daily SMB gains at a time of high melting, the cumulative SMB gain for the year is still well below the long-term average.

Starting at the weekend melt may increase and precipitation decrease. And Monday could be the first day this year for a major SMB net loss.(Very warm & very little precipitation.)
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #127 on: June 18, 2020, 01:22:34 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/


Data as at 17 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 16th June.
But a bit dryer, so melt > precipitation = SMB loss.


Despite these significant daily SMB gains at a time of high melting, the cumulative SMB gain for the year is still well below the long-term average.

Starting at the weekend melt is very likely to increase and precipitation decrease. And SUNDAY could be the first day this year for a major SMB net loss.(Very warm & little precipitation, much as rain in the SE corner.)
[/quote]
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #128 on: June 19, 2020, 12:56:32 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

Data as at 18 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 1th June.
But a bit wetter, so melt< precipitation = (a small) SMB loss.


Despite the recent significant daily SMB gains at a time of high melting, the cumulative SMB gain for the year is still well below the long-term average.

Starting at the weekend melt is very likely to increase and precipitation decrease. And SUNDAY could be the first day this year for a major SMB net loss.(Very warm & little precipitation, much as rain in the SE corner - as usual.)
« Last Edit: June 20, 2020, 12:12:39 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #129 on: June 20, 2020, 12:32:42 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

Data as at 19 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 18th June.
But a bit dryer, so melt > precipitation = (a small) SMB loss.


Despite the recent significant daily SMB gains at a time of high melting, the cumulative SMB gain for the year is still well below the long-term average.

Starting at the weekend (i.e. today) melt is very likely to increase and precipitation decrease. And SUNDAY could be the first day this year for a decent SMB net loss. (Very warm & little precipitation, much as rain in the SE corner - as usual.)
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #130 on: June 21, 2020, 12:10:12 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/


Data as at 20 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 19th June.
But somewhat dryer, so even though melt is less than yesterday, it is still > precipitation = (a modest) SMB loss.


SUNDAY (today) could be the first day this year for a decent SMB net loss. (Very warm & little precipitation, much as rain in the SE corner - as usual.)
« Last Edit: June 21, 2020, 12:25:58 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #131 on: June 22, 2020, 12:26:06 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

Data as at 21 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 20th June.
But sufficient precipitation , so that even though melt was highest so far (just) this year, the result was a merely a modest SMB loss.

Yesterday I wrote...
SUNDAY (today) could be the first day this year for a decent SMB net loss.

I was wrong. Ho hum.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2020, 12:21:04 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #132 on: June 23, 2020, 12:31:03 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 22 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 21st June,
except that melt rose to 29% of the surface area of Greenland,  while precipitation was a bet less than in recent days. The result was a merely an SMB loss of just above 3GT, well above average..

Sunday was supposed to be the first day this year for a decent SMB net loss.
Sunday became Monday


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« Last Edit: June 24, 2020, 10:32:23 AM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #133 on: June 24, 2020, 10:44:05 AM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 23 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 22nd June,
except that melt rose to 32% of the surface area of Greenland,  while precipitation was also a bit more than in recent days. The result was an SMB loss of just above 1.3 GT, which is below average..

Precipitation and temperatures see to indicate more of the same for the next few days, with most precipitation on the  eastern half of Greenland, i.e. most SMB loss in the Western coastal region.
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Freegrass

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #134 on: June 24, 2020, 11:18:38 PM »
Shit just went bad on Greenland...

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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #135 on: June 25, 2020, 12:37:51 AM »
Shit just went bad on Greenland...


The percentage area of melt is pretty much the same on the NSIDC Greenland Today graph and the DMI graph. High, but not that unusual

This year is nothing special SO FAR.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #136 on: June 25, 2020, 12:12:44 PM »
Shit just went bad on Greenland...


The percentage area of melt is pretty much the same on the NSIDC Greenland Today graph and the DMI graph. High, but not that unusual

This year is nothing special SO FAR.
Perhaps I will have to eat my words.....

Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 24 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 23rd June,

except that melt rose again, now at 34.5% of the surface area of Greenland,  while precipitation stayed pretty strong. The result was an SMB loss of just above 2 GT, which is close to average..

Precipitation and temperatures seem to indicate more of the same for the next few days, with most precipitation on the  eastern half of Greenland, i.e. most SMB loss in the Western coastal region and also the far north.

But each day the melt gets stronger, and the temperature anomalies remain strongly +ve, especially in the north on both sides of the Nares strait. How the arch in the strait has survived given the strong meltwater runoff and warmth I do not know. Perhaps it will just dissolve in situ?

- it is this persistence in combined high melt and precipitation that is interesting -  has a pattern of higher-energy weather set in? (AGW + Polar amplification?)
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ps For those with failing eyesight - e.g. me, click on the images for a clearer view.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #137 on: June 26, 2020, 09:34:47 AM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 25 June 2020 - very much the same as 3rd to 24th June,

except that melt rose yet again, now at 35.8% of the surface area of Greenland,  while precipitation stayed not as strong. The result was an SMB loss of nearly 3 GT, which is close to and a bit above average..

Precipitation and temperatures seem to indicate more of the same for the next few days, with most precipitation on the  eastern half of Greenland, i.e. most SMB loss in the Western coastal region and also the far north.

But each day the melt gets stronger, and the temperature anomalies remain strongly +ve, especially in the north on both sides of the Nares strait. How the arch in the strait has survived given the strong meltwater runoff and warmth I do not know. Perhaps it will just dissolve in situ?

- it is this persistence in combined high melt and precipitation that is interesting -  has a pattern of higher-energy weather set in? (AGW + Polar amplification?)
_______________________________________-
ps For those with less than perfect eyesight - e.g. me, click on the images for a clearer view.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

FrostKing70

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #138 on: June 26, 2020, 08:40:13 PM »
Very early in the year, and we are about 100 GT below the average.  Is this the year we end up with a negative for SMB?

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #139 on: June 27, 2020, 11:00:44 AM »
Very early in the year, and we are about 100 GT below the average.  Is this the year we end up with a negative for SMB?
Below the average, yes, but above last year. I think it can only happen if precipitation in the next two months is well below average - i.e. sunny days & dry. See below....
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Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 26 June 2020. Melt very much the same as 3rd to 25th June, i.e. gradual intensification of melt. Melt rose yet again, now at 36.4% of the surface area of Greenland. 
Precipitation for once was low. The result was an SMB loss of nearly 3.6 GT, which is above average..

Temperatures seem, if anything, rising for the next few days, with real heat in the long afternoons. Most precipitation forecast to be confined to the SE quadrant of Greenland, and somewhat lower than in recent weeks.

 i.e. There may be some SMB gains in that SE quadrant and perhaps significant losses in all the rest of the coastal regions.

Will Greenland get dryer for the rest of the melt season?
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oren

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #140 on: June 27, 2020, 01:30:57 PM »
With the average SMB gain at nearly 400GT, it would take a very exceptional year to reach negative territory. So far this year is not showing the signs, but surprises can happen.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #141 on: June 28, 2020, 07:35:08 AM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 27 June 2020. Melt very much the same as 3rd to 26th June, i.e. gradual intensification of melt. Melt rose yet again, now at 37.2% of the surface area of Greenland. 
Precipitation for a second time was low. The result was an SMB loss of just over 4 GT, which is above average..

Temperatures seem, if anything, rising for the next few days, with real heat in the long afternoons. Most precipitation is forecast to be confined to the SE quadrant of Greenland, and continuing somewhat lower than in recent weeks.

 i.e. There may be some SMB gains in that SE quadrant and perhaps even greater significant losses in all the rest of the coastal regions.

Will Greenland get dryer for the rest of the melt season? They tell us that dry sunny days are the no. #1 snow & ice killer on the land surface during the brief summer to mid-August.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #142 on: June 29, 2020, 12:18:31 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 28 June 2020. Melt very much the same as 3rd to 27th June, i.e. gradual intensification of melt. Melt rose yet again, now at 37.5% of the surface area of Greenland. 
Precipitation a bit higher. The result was an SMB loss of just over 2 GT, which is below average..
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #143 on: June 30, 2020, 08:07:40 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 29 June 2020. Melt very much the same as 3rd to 28th June, i.e. though perhaps melt has peaked.. Melt down a teensy bit to 37.1% of the surface area of Greenland. 
Precipitation a bit higher. The result was an SMB loss of just over 2 GT, which is below average..

The melt and meltwater run-off in the NE and North is really quite spectacular. A lot of H2O in liquid form must be getting into the Nares Strait from both sides.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #144 on: July 01, 2020, 10:58:48 AM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 30 June 2020. Melt very much the same as 3rd to 28th June. I thought perhaps melt has peaked, but melt up a teensy bit to 38.2% of the surface area of Greenland. 
Precipitation a bit lower. The result was an SMB loss of just over 3 GT, which is a bit above average..

The melt and meltwater run-off in the NE and North is really quite spectacular. A lot of H2O in liquid form must be getting into the Nares Strait from both sides. You can see that even more clearly in the accumulated SMB anomaly graph.

It still looks as if melt might peak within the next 3 days. But GFS also forecasts precipitation will be much less (ha ha?). The chances of a record low SMB gain for the year look very remote indeed, though a below average gain might be considered the new normal for a few years more.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #145 on: July 02, 2020, 05:27:00 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 1 July 2020. Melt very much the same as 3rd to 30th June. I thought perhaps melt has peaked, but melt is gain up a teensy bit to 38.5% of the surface area of Greenland.
Precipitation much lower. The result was an SMB loss of 5.6 GT, which is very much above average, and the first b> 5gt daily SMB for this melt season.

This illustrates well how dryness is the key to SMB loss even when melt is high.
I also don't remember melt being so consistently high for so long.


It still looks as if melt might peak within the next 3 days. But GFS also forecasts precipitation will be remain low. The chances of a record low SMB gain for the year look very remote indeed, though a below average gain might be considered the new normal.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #146 on: July 03, 2020, 02:05:48 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 2 July 2020. Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 1 July. Melt is down a bit to 37.2% of the surface area of Greenland.
Precipitation about the same - low. The result was an SMB loss of 4.4 GT, which is around average.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #147 on: July 04, 2020, 11:20:33 AM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 3 July 2020. Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 1 July. Melt is down a bit to 36.8% of the surface area of Greenland.
Precipitation very low. The result was a daily SMB loss of exactly 5GT, which is a bit above average.

You can see from the SMB graph that cumulative SMB gain for the year (493 GT) is already less than the final result for 2017-18 (a bit above 500 GT).

However, matching last year (2018-19) would require a further SMB loss of around 320GT, which is highly unlikely. It would need continuous high daily melt and a continuous drought over Greenland for the next 8 weeks.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #148 on: July 05, 2020, 11:40:22 AM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 3 July 2020. Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 1 July. Melt is down a bit to 36.8% of the surface area of Greenland.
Precipitation very low. The result was a daily SMB loss of exactly 5GT, which is a bit above average.

You can see from the SMB graph that cumulative SMB gain for the year (493 GT) is already less than the final result for 2017-18 (a bit above 500 GT).

However, matching last year (2018-19) would require a further SMB loss of around 320GT, which is highly unlikely. It would need continuous high daily melt and a continuous drought over Greenland for the next 8 weeks.

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« Last Edit: July 06, 2020, 11:54:58 AM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #149 on: July 06, 2020, 01:19:02 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 5 July 2020. Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 4 July. Melt is down a bit to 36.5% of the surface area of Greenland.
Precipitation low. The result was a daily SMB loss of 4.75 GT, which is a bit above average.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)