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Author Topic: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year  (Read 33969 times)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #150 on: July 07, 2020, 02:22:22 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 6 July 2020.
Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 5 July. Melt is down a bit to 35.1% of the surface area of Greenland.
Precipitation very low. The result was a daily SMB loss of 5.4 GT, which is above average for this day.

Might be a extra high melt on Thursday + low precipitation apart frm the SW corner - but that looks like mainly rain. So maybe a big daily SMB loss. After that looks more like melt moderating somewhat.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #151 on: July 08, 2020, 02:33:13 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 6 July 2020.
Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 6 July. Melt is up a bit to 35.1% of the surface area of Greenland.
Precipitation   low. The result was a daily SMB loss of 5.7 GT, which is above average for this day and the highest so far this year.

Might be an extra high melt on Thursday + low precipitation apart from the SW quadrant - but that looks like mainly rain. So maybe a big daily SMB loss. After that looks more like melt moderating somewhat.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2020, 07:14:16 PM by gerontocrat »
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #152 on: July 08, 2020, 03:23:44 PM »
I feel a big Thanks is due to you for your tireless efforts across the whole site Gerontocrat!

Without your data getting my 'daily overview' of the world would be a much longer exercise but be it Arctic,Antarctic,Greenland,Global you're there in spades!!!
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #153 on: July 09, 2020, 07:01:59 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 8 July 2020.
Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 7 July. Melt is down a bit to 34.9% of the surface area of Greenland.
Precipitation   low. The result was a daily SMB loss of 5.8 GT, which is above average for this day and the highest so far this year.

Might be an extra high melt on Thursday (i.e. today) + low precipitation apart from the SW quadrant - but that looks like mainly rain. So maybe a big daily SMB loss. After that looks more like melt moderating considerably.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #154 on: July 10, 2020, 01:24:25 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 9 July 2020.
Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 8 July. Melt as expected rose to 37.8% of the surface area of Greenland.
Precipitation   higher than I expected. The result was a daily SMB loss of 3.6 GT, whichbelow average for this day.

It looks like melt moderating considerably during the next eek or two.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #155 on: July 11, 2020, 11:58:54 AM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 10 July 2020.
Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 9 July. Melt unexpectedly rose to 42.3% of the surface area of Greenland, highest for the year.
But Precipitation much higher than I expected. The result was a daily SMB loss of 2 GT, well below the average for this day.

It still looks like melt moderating considerably during the next week or two, but what do I know (sigh).
[/quote]
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #156 on: July 12, 2020, 06:27:21 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 11 July 2020.
Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 10 July. Melt down a bit to 39.7% of the surface area of Greenland, 2nd highest for the year.
But Precipitation highbut less than yesterday. The result was a daily SMB loss of 4.4 GT, about the average for this day.

It still looks like melt moderating considerably during the next week or two, but what do I know? (sigh).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #157 on: July 13, 2020, 12:40:58 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 12 July 2020.
Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 11 July. Melt down a bit to 38.7% of the surface area of Greenland, 2nd highest for the year.
But Precipitation high.
The result was a daily SMB loss of 3.5 GT, below the average for this day.

ISo far this season is characterised by very much above average melt but above average precipitation resulting in a fairly average net SMB change so far - but 50 days to go.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #158 on: July 14, 2020, 12:04:27 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 13 July 2020.
Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 12 July. Melt the same at 38.7% of the surface area of Greenland, 2nd highest for the year.
But Precipitation high(ish).
The result was a daily SMB loss of 4.2 GT, about the average for this day.

ISo far this season is characterised by very much above average melt but above average precipitation resulting in a fairly average net SMB change so far - but 49 days to go.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 450 GT, about 70GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of 380GT.
.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #159 on: July 14, 2020, 01:16:25 PM »
Greenland SMB Change, Gross Mass Change and Net Mass Chnage to mid-may 2015

The GRACE-FO satellites are recording the net mass change of Greenland consisting of the melting of ocean-terminating glaciers less the increase in the Surface Mass Balance.

As we now have both sets of data, I can plot the gross and net mass change in the Greenland Ice Sheet. I can only go back to November 2018 for annual totals due to that the continuous monthly GRACE-FO data only begins in November 2018.

The table and graph show that submarine melting of glaciers by contact with the ocean continues throughout the winter months even when there is surface sea ice. Net mass loss is at over 500 GT per annum, while gross mass loss, i.e. melting of marine-terminating glaciers, is approaching 700GT per annum.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #160 on: July 14, 2020, 02:53:47 PM »
Attached are the graphs of Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss from 2002 to Mid-May 2020.

Source is from GRACE-FO data processed by http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de/greenland
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences.
The data shows total ice mass loss at 3,893 GT and is monthly totals analysed by basin.

Meanwhile, the JPL  GRACE-FO data is available @
 https://podaac-tools.jpl.nasa.gov/drive/files/allData/tellus/L4/ice_mass/RL06/v02/mascon_CRI
This data shows total ice mass loss at 4,725 GT and is just a simple text file of monthly totals. A difference of 832GT is not good.

I suppose I will have to ask them about it.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #161 on: July 15, 2020, 06:21:29 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 14 July 2020.
Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 13 July.

If you look at the SMB graph you would think that melt has been pretty average this year. But no, it has been very much above average continuously since the beginning of June. It is precipitation that has held back SMB losses.

Perhaps the future has arrived - a warmer wetter Greenland.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #162 on: July 16, 2020, 06:21:59 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 15 July 2020.
Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 14 July. Melt lower at 34.8% of the surface area of Greenland, still very much above average.
But Precipitation, for a change, low.
The result was a daily SMB loss of 5.6 GT, well above the average for this day.

Precipitation may be low for much of the next 5 to 10 days.
Melt looks about the same until the weekend, then increasing day by day by Tuesday and staying high for a few days more.

So we just might see some high SMB loss days during the next week.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 440 GT, about 60GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of 380GT.
.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #163 on: July 17, 2020, 02:01:41 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 16 July 2020.
Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 15 July. Melt a ta higher at 35.1% of the surface area of Greenland, still very much above average.
But Precipitation low.
The result was a daily SMB loss of 6.2 GT, well above the average for this day and a record for this year.

Precipitation may be low for much of the next 5 to 10 days.
Melt looks about the same until the weekend, then increasing day by day by Tuesday and staying high for a few days more.

So we just might see some high SMB loss days during the next week.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 434 GT, about 55GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of 380GT. Looks like SMB gain for the year will be below average - but by how much?

And how strong will be glacier calving and submarine melting of marine terminating glaciers
.
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Sublime_Rime

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #164 on: July 18, 2020, 06:40:40 PM »
Amazing Gerontocrat, thanks for your informative posts. I am noting in particular the marked depth of melt in the Northern and western low-altitude regions, while surface melt area only seems moderately above average. I am curious what the impact of this marked thinning will have on calving and the rate of ice flow from higher elevatons. Does anyone know of studies correlating the effect of surface melt to changes in ice flow rate?  I wonder if there could be a troublesome feedback loop set up here.

My apologies if this is inappropriate for a data thread, but I thought more people might be stopping by with more expertise than this humble biologist.
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FrostKing70

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #165 on: July 18, 2020, 07:46:33 PM »
I suspect we will get to 10 GT loss in the next few days, and staying near that number for several days.   Will pretty quickly wipe out the 55 GT referenced above.

I believe there have been some studies linking high surface melt with increased flow rates, due to the water traveling to the base of the ice and lubricating the movement.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #166 on: July 18, 2020, 10:38:16 PM »
Does anyone know of studies correlating the effect of surface melt to changes in ice flow rate?  I wonder if there could be a troublesome feedback loop set up here.
Try this one (open access)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05002-0
Hydrology and the future of the Greenland Ice Sheet
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #167 on: July 18, 2020, 10:47:03 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 17 July 2020.
Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 16 July. Melt lower at 33% of the surface area of Greenland, still very much above average.
But Precipitation very low.
The result was a daily SMB loss of 6.6 GT, well above the average for this day and a record for this year.

Precipitation may be low for much of the next 5 days.
Melt looks about the same until Sunday, then increasing  Monday Tuesday Wednesday and moderating a little bit after that.

So we just might see some high SMB loss days during the next week.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 427 GT, a bit below 50 GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of 380GT. Looks like SMB gain for the year will be below average - but by how much?

And how strong will be glacier calving and submarine melting of marine terminating glaciers
.
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oren

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #168 on: July 19, 2020, 12:27:36 AM »
I think 2012 (exceptional GIS melt year) saw an acceleration of Greenland glaciers.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #169 on: July 19, 2020, 11:52:28 AM »
I think 2012 (exceptional GIS melt year) saw an acceleration of Greenland glaciers.
A paper that does have more about it.
A switch from mass loss mainly down to glaciers calving  and acceleration to surface mass loss in SW Greenland. Latest GRACE-FO data (last image from GFZ data) confirms that most of that fresh water melt is heading into Baffin Bay.

Thanks Oren - well worth a search.

And it's an open access paper with loads of graphics & even a powerpoint you can download.

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/6/1934
Accelerating changes in ice mass within Greenland, and the ice sheet’s sensitivity to atmospheric forcing
Quote
Significance
The recent deglaciation of Greenland is a response to both oceanic and atmospheric forcings. From 2000 to 2010, ice loss was concentrated in the southeast and northwest margins of the ice sheet, in large part due to the increasing discharge of marine-terminating outlet glaciers, emphasizing the importance of oceanic forcing.

However, the largest sustained (∼10 years) acceleration detected by Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) occurred in southwest Greenland, an area largely devoid of such glaciers. The sustained acceleration and the subsequent, abrupt, and even stronger deceleration were mostly driven by changes in air temperature and solar radiation. Continued atmospheric warming will lead to southwest Greenland becoming a major contributor to sea level rise.

Abstract
From early 2003 to mid-2013, the total mass of ice in Greenland declined at a progressively increasing rate. In mid-2013, an abrupt reversal occurred, and very little net ice loss occurred in the next 12–18 months. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and global positioning system (GPS) observations reveal that the spatial patterns of the sustained acceleration and the abrupt deceleration in mass loss are similar. The strongest accelerations tracked the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The negative phase of the NAO enhances summertime warming and insolation while reducing snowfall, especially in west Greenland, driving surface mass balance (SMB) more negative, as illustrated using the regional climate model MAR. The spatial pattern of accelerating mass changes reflects the geography of NAO-driven shifts in atmospheric forcing and the ice sheet’s sensitivity to that forcing. We infer that southwest Greenland will become a major future contributor to sea level rise.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #170 on: July 19, 2020, 12:10:49 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 18 July 2020.
Melt very much the same as 3rd June to 17 July. Melt lower at 35% of the surface area of Greenland, still very much above average.
But Precipitation very low.
The result was a daily SMB loss of 5.7 GT, well above the average for this day.

Precipitation may be low for much of the next 5 days.
Melt looks possibly to be up a bit today (Sunday), then increasing  Monday Tuesday Wednesday and moderating a little bit after that.

So we just might see some more high SMB loss days during the next week.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 421 GT, a bit more than 40 GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of 380 GT. Looks like SMB gain for the year will end up below average - but by how much?

And how strong will be glacier calving and submarine melting of marine terminating glaciers
See previous posts on apparent changes to the relative importance of surface melt run-off and glacial calving and ocean melt of marine terminating glaciers.
.
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oren

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #171 on: July 19, 2020, 12:16:03 PM »
IMHO zero chance of not going below the average of 380GT. Best bet is hitting 200-300GT, but the field is wide open.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2020, 01:32:58 PM by oren »

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #172 on: July 20, 2020, 01:31:08 PM »
EDIT 21 July....

Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 19 July 2020.
Melt STILL very much the same as 3rd June to 18 July. Melt higher at 36.8% of the surface area of Greenland, and still very much above average.
But Precipitation up somewhat.
The result was a daily SMB loss of 5.8 4.8 GT, at about the average for this day.

Note that we are now, on average,  at the peak of daily SMB losses.

Precipitation still looks as if it may be low for much of the next 5 to 10 days.
Melt looks possibly to be up a bit more today (Monday), then increasing Tuesday Wednesday and (this is a change) staying high for at least several days after that.

So we just might see some above average SMB loss days during this next week, (and perhaps even beyond).

SMB gain for this year to date is at 417 GT, a bit less than 40 50 GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 380 370 GT**. It is very probable that SMB gain for the year will end up below average - but by how much?

** Had another look at the DMI graph and average SMB gain in a year looks more like 370 Gt, not 380 GT.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2020, 12:34:18 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #173 on: July 21, 2020, 12:30:42 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 20 July 2020.
Melt STILL very much the same as 3rd June to 19 July. Melt higher at 37.5% of the surface area of Greenland, and still very much above average.
But Precipitation up somewhat more than I expected.
The result was a daily SMB loss of 5.4 GT, a bit above the average for this day.

Note that we are now, on average,  at the peak of daily SMB losses.

Precipitation looks as if it may be very low until Friday, then higher from Saturday.
Melt looks possibly to be up a bit more today (Tuesday), then increasing Wednesday and staying high for a few days after that. On Sunday GFS says considerable melt in the North. After that looks like melt moderating.

So we just might see some above average SMB loss days during this week, (but not beyond ?).

SMB gain for this year to date is at 411 GT, about 40 GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 370 GT. It is very probable that SMB gain for the year will end up below average - but by how much?
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #174 on: July 22, 2020, 11:55:09 AM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 21 July 2020.
Melt STILL very much the same as 3rd June to 20 July. Melt higher at 41.8% of the surface area of Greenland, and 2nd highest for the year.
AND Precipitation low.
The result was a daily SMB loss of 6.8 GT, well above the average for this day and highest for the year to date.

Just for once things turned out on this day pretty much as expected.
Note that we are now, on average,  at the peak of daily SMB losses.

Precipitation looks as if it may be very low until Friday, then higher from Saturday.
Melt looks possibly to be and staying high for a few more days after that. For Sunday GFS says considerable melt in the North. After that looks like melt moderating.

So we just might see some above average SMB loss days during this week, (but not beyond ?).

SMB gain for this year to date is at 404 GT, somewhat above 30 GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 370 GT.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #175 on: July 23, 2020, 01:12:44 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 22 July 2020.
Melt STILL very much the same as 3rd June to 21 July. Melt higher at 42.75% of the surface area of Greenland, and highest for the year.
AND Precipitation low.
The result was a daily SMB loss of 7.3 GT, well above the average for this day, and highest for the year to date.

Precipitation looks as if it may be low until Friday, then a little bit higher from Sunday.
Melt looks possibly to be high for a few more days more. For Sunday to Tuesday GFS says considerable melt in the North. After that looks like melt moderating.

So we just might see some above average SMB loss days until next Tuesday, (but not beyond ?).

SMB gain for this year to date is at 397 GT, perhaps less than 30 GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 370 GT.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #176 on: July 24, 2020, 12:16:53 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 23 July 2020.
Melt STILL very much above average as it has been since early June.
On this day melt very high 42.45% of the surface area of Greenland, and 2nd highest for the year.

AND Precipitation low.

The result was a daily SMB loss of 6.8 GT, well above the average for this day.

Precipitation looks as if it may be a little bit higher from Sunday.
Melt looks possibly to be high for a few more days more.
After that looks like melt moderating but maybe still above average.

So we just might see some above average SMB loss days for some time more..

SMB gain for this year to date is at 390 GT, a bit more than 20 GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 370 GT.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #177 on: July 25, 2020, 01:48:17 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 24 July 2020.
Melt STILL very much above average as it has been for such a long time.
On this day melt unchanged, very high at 42.45% of the surface area of Greenland, and 2nd highest for the year.

AND Precipitation a bit above average.

The result was a daily SMB loss of 5 GT, at the average for this day.

Precipitation looks as if it may be a little bit higher from Today until Tuesday, and just maybe dryer after that.
Melt looks possibly to be high for a few more days more.
After that looks like melt moderating but maybe still above average.

So we just might (or might not) see some above average SMB loss days for some time more..

SMB gain for this year to date is at 385 GT, a bit less than 20 GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 370 GT.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #178 on: July 26, 2020, 05:03:16 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 25 July 2020.
Melt STILL very much above average as it has been for such a long time.
On this day melt down a bit, still very high at 40.3% of the surface area of Greenland.

AND Precipitation well above average.

The result was a daily SMB loss of 2.2 GT, well below the average for this day. A good demonstration that high SMB loss needs high melt plus low precipitation.

Precipitation looks as if it may be a little bit higher from Today until Tuesday, and just maybe dryer after that. But the forecasts seem to vary muchly from day to day.
Melt looks possibly to be high for a few more days more.
After that looks like melt moderating but maybe still above average.

So we just might (or might not) see some above average SMB loss days for some time more..

SMB gain for this year to date is at 383 GT, a bit less than 20 GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 370 GT.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #179 on: July 27, 2020, 07:48:07 PM »
Tomorrow is another day....
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #180 on: July 28, 2020, 12:44:17 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 27 July 2020.
Melt STILL very much above average as it has been for such a long time.
On this day melt  at 41.3% of the surface area of Greenland.

AND Precipitation again above average.

The result was a daily SMB loss of 2.9 GT, well below the average for this day. Another good demonstration that for many days this season despite high melt, above average precipitation has meant below average SMB losses.

Precipitation looks as if it may be a little bit high today (Tuesday), and just maybe dryer after that. Melt looks possibly to be high but not as high as now for a few more days more.

So we just might (or might not) see some above average SMB loss in the next few days.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 378 GT, about 10 GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 370 GT.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #181 on: July 29, 2020, 02:24:05 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 28 July 2020.
Melt STILL very much above average as it has been for such a long time.
On this day melt  at 41.4% of the surface area of Greenland.

AND Precipitation again above average.

The result was a daily SMB loss of 1.8 GT, well below the average for this day. Another good demonstration that for many days this season despite high melt, above average precipitation has meant below average SMB losses.

Precipitation looks as if it may be less in the next few days after that. But......
Melt looks possibly to be high but not as high as now for a few more days more.

So we just might (or might not) see some above average SMB loss in the next few days.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 376 GT, about 10 GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 370 GT.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

lurkalot

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #182 on: July 30, 2020, 12:09:52 PM »
Thank you Gerontocrat for all your meticulous analyses. This one puzzles me, however. If the precipitation is snow then I understand the analysis. But if it is rain surely this will tend to increase the melt rather than counteract it. My apologies if this has been raised before.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #183 on: July 30, 2020, 05:43:10 PM »
If the precipitation is snow then I understand the analysis. But if it is rain surely this will tend to increase the melt rather than counteract it. My apologies if this has been raised before.
Not a problem...
Quote from DMI
Quote
Melting does not in itself necessarily give rise to mass loss, however. Much of the meltwater will refreeze in the surface snow layers rather than running off the ice sheet, and this process is included in the calculations of surface mass balance which is why the melt area plot may differ from the areas of negative mass balance seen on the map “Daily change”. Likewise, sublimation does not count as melting and surface mass balance can therefore occur with the surface temperature being far below the melting point. See further discussions of the difference between surface mass balance and melting here.

BUT.. there is a paper somewhere talking about how increased rain events (even in winter!) must in the end cause greater run-off. The run-off is part of the DMI model that calculates SMB loss or gain.  I bet there are heated discussions about the rain, and rain + surface melting percolating through the ice sheet to bedrock and finding its way to the ocean.

You will see from the SMB map how few meteo stations there are on Greenland, and even so it is better than it was. Lack of field observations limits the ability to test models against reality = the story of the Arctic and even more so in the Antarctic.

Meanwhile.....
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 29 July 2020.
Melt STILL very much above average as it has been for such a long time.
But on this day melt is down to 37.6% from 41.4% of the surface area of Greenland.

AND Precipitation lower than ysterday.

As a result was a daily SMB loss increased to 4.3 G from 1.8 GT, average for this day. This time a demonstration of how a lower precipitation has more effect than a lower melt on SMB loss.

Precipitation looks as if it may be less in the next few days but......
Melt looks possibly to be high but not as high as now for a few more days more.

So we just might (or might not) see some above average SMB loss in the next few days.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 372 GT, a few GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 370 GT. (see smb-graph)
« Last Edit: July 30, 2020, 05:48:29 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #184 on: July 31, 2020, 12:06:39 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 30 July 2020.
Melt STILL very much above average as it has been for such a long time.
But on this day melt is down to 36.5% from 37.6% of the surface area of Greenland.

AND Precipitation lower than yesterday.

As a result was a daily SMB loss increased again to 4.85 G from 4.3 GT, above average for this day. Another demo of how a lower precipitation has more effect than a lower melt on SMB loss.

Precipitation looks as if it may be less in the next few days and rain at low altitudes but......
Melt looks possibly to be high but not as high as now for a few more days more.

So we just might (or might not) see some above average SMB loss in the next few days.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 367 GT, 1 or 2 GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 365 GT. (see smb-graph).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #185 on: August 01, 2020, 02:19:09 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 31 July 2020.
Melt STILL very much above average as it has been for such a long time.
But on this day melt is down to 33% from 36.5% of the surface area of Greenland.

AND Precipitation perhaps the same as yesterday.

As a result was a daily SMB loss decreased to 4.5 G from 4.8 GT, at average for this day.

Precipitation looks as if it may be less in the next few days and rain at low altitudes but......
Melt looks possibly to be high but not as high as now for a few more days more.

So we just might (or might not) see some above average SMB loss in the next few days.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 363 GT, about 1 or 2 GT below the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 365 GT.
__________________________________
The accumulated SMB anomaly graph shows clearly the East / West divide between above / below average SMB gain.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #186 on: August 02, 2020, 11:30:28 AM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 31 July 2020.
Melt Very much above average as it has been for such a long time, but perhaps on a slow decline.
On this day melt is down to 31% from 33% of the surface area of Greenland.

AND Precipitation perhaps higher than yesterday.

As a result was a daily SMB loss decreased to 1.85 G from 4.5 GT, below average for this day.

Precipitation no longer looks as if it may be less in the next few days, but with rain at low altitudes,
Melt looks possibly to be high but not as high as now for a few more days more.

So my guess is the chances are that we won't see some above average SMB loss in the next few days.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 361 GT, a bit below the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 365 GT.
__________________________________
One year ago, in the 3 days from 31/7/2019 to 1/8/2019, SMB loss was over 30GT, i.e. more than 10GT per day. It was warm, melt exceeded 55% on the 1st August and it was also DRY.

This year the same 3 days saw of loss of lust over 11GT, i.e. an average of less than 4GT.
It was warm, melt well above average, but it was NOT DRY.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #187 on: August 03, 2020, 12:12:35 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 2 Aug 2020.
Melt Very much above average as it has been for such a long time, but perhaps on a slow decline.
On this day melt is unchanged at 31% of the surface area of Greenland.

AND Precipitation perhaps lower than yesterday.

As a result was a daily SMB loss increased to 2.5 GT from 1.85 GT, below average for this day.

Precipitation no longer looks as if it may be less in the next few days, but with rain at low altitudes,
Melt looks possibly to be high but not as high as now for the next 3-5 days, and just maybe a spike in melt Sat 8th to Mon 10th.

So my guess is the chances are that we won't see many above average SMB losses in the next few days.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 358 GT, a bit below the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 365 GT.
__________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

GG77

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #188 on: August 08, 2020, 07:46:52 AM »
gerontocrat - where have you gone, i enjoy reading your posts about Greenland.

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #189 on: August 09, 2020, 09:28:53 AM »
He had trouble with his laptop...

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #190 on: August 09, 2020, 09:44:34 AM »
Looks like Greenland had close to its first day since spring of SMB gain

Altai

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #191 on: August 09, 2020, 09:46:39 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_combine_SM_day_EN.png
No smb loss at the moment due to high precipitation.

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #192 on: August 12, 2020, 12:22:58 AM »
SMB gain in mid august, I don't think that happens very often!

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #193 on: August 12, 2020, 04:08:19 AM »
Well surprisingly we could finish the year with near-average SMB change. I would never have guessed it a month ago.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #194 on: August 16, 2020, 01:38:59 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 15 Aug 2020.
While I've been out of action for this month...

Melt has declined from a very much above average 30% to the 15 Aug value of 19.5%

Precipitation has been sometimes been very high.

As a result there were daily SMB gains from the 9th to the 14th August as opposed to the "normal" losses. Cumulative SMB gain for the year is 362 GT, a bit below the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 365 GT.

This near average SMB gain figure conceals high melt and high precipitation as can be seen in the accumulated SMB anomaly map (last image)

However, if GFS has got it right, Monday to Friday will see a return to high melt, and precipitation will be low. Maybe some late season SMB losses?
_______________________________________
click each image for full-size.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #195 on: August 16, 2020, 03:29:20 PM »
I am glad you got a new laptop Gerontocrat. I like so many others have missed the data.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #196 on: August 17, 2020, 01:19:56 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 16 Aug 2020.

Melt increased a little to 20.7% from the 15 Aug value of 19.5%, a bit above average for this date.

Precipitation high again.

The result is a daily SMB small gain of 0.65 GT as opposed to an average small loss. Cumulative SMB gain for the year is 362 GT, a bit below the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 365 GT.

GFS is still saying that Monday to Friday will see a return to high melt, and precipitation will be low. Maybe some late season SMB losses?
_______________________________________
click each image for full-size.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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FrostKing70

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #197 on: August 18, 2020, 11:23:47 PM »
What a difference a few days can make!  Hard to believe this year closed the gap to the mean!

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #198 on: August 19, 2020, 03:41:13 AM »
This would suggest me the west Greenland losing from additional climatic warming to the gain of east Greenland. Western winds carrying less humidity as they arrive from the continent, while the warmer Atlantic water body having more moisture, increasing precipitation. But once ice-free ocean in the north materialises early in insolation, we will see this set up crumbling and more melting everywhere.
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year
« Reply #199 on: August 19, 2020, 09:30:51 PM »
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 18Aug 2020.

Melt increased in the last 2 days to 24.4% from the 16 Aug value of 20.7%, above average for this date.

Precipitation somewhat lower..

The result is #daily SMB losses of 2.8 & 3.5 GT on the 2 days, somewhat above average. Cumulative SMB gain for the year is down to 356 GT, approaching 10GT below the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 365 GT.

GFS is still saying that from now to Friday will see a continuation high melt, and precipitation will be low. Maybe some more late season SMB losses?
_______________________________________
click each image for full-size.

& a gif to click to show how August has seen lots of melt but lots of precipitation.
(Playtime on the new computer)
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)