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Author Topic: Slater's thread  (Read 59013 times)

blumenkraft

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Re: Slater's thread
« Reply #150 on: June 20, 2020, 03:12:25 PM »
Hey, OTG, welcome to the forum.

That link (https://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/this_year_map.png) is updated daily. If you open this link (which happens when you open this thread) it would only see the recent uploaded file at that link.

If you want to keep the original, you have to download it from the Slater site, and then upload it to the forum as an attachment to your post.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Freegrass

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Re: Slater's thread
« Reply #151 on: June 20, 2020, 03:23:00 PM »
Oops... My bad. It is indeed updating.
Freethinkers are those who are willing to use their minds without prejudice and without fearing to understand things that clash with their own customs, privileges, or beliefs. This state of mind is not common, but it is essential for right thinking.

blumenkraft

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Re: Slater's thread
« Reply #152 on: June 20, 2020, 03:26:18 PM »
Think about it, FG. There is no date in the URL. How would the server know which picture you mean without that? So logically it can only be the most recent one at this URL.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

OffTheGrid

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Re: Slater's thread
« Reply #153 on: June 22, 2020, 02:08:59 AM »
 Heres the tenth of August as a reference to return to.
Does this model usually return such jagged prediction curve? Seems weird. Can't predict weather 50 days ahead.

Freegrass

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Re: Slater's thread
« Reply #154 on: June 22, 2020, 02:32:01 AM »
I still haven't figured out what the light blue line indicates. What does anomaly forecast mean?
Freethinkers are those who are willing to use their minds without prejudice and without fearing to understand things that clash with their own customs, privileges, or beliefs. This state of mind is not common, but it is essential for right thinking.

oren

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Re: Slater's thread
« Reply #155 on: June 22, 2020, 08:57:43 AM »
Heres the tenth of August as a reference to return to.
Does this model usually return such jagged prediction curve? Seems weird. Can't predict weather 50 days ahead.
I am almost certain the jagged prediction curve is a result of the abnormally jagged NSIDC area curve at the time the forecast was made. And in general I doubt this model's output.

binntho

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Re: Slater's thread
« Reply #156 on: June 22, 2020, 09:12:47 AM »
And in general I doubt this model's output.

As do I. But in an earlier discussion, it was pointed out that Slater's model apparently has the best track record at predicting the average September extent.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

oren

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Re: Slater's thread
« Reply #157 on: June 22, 2020, 10:01:04 AM »
OTG, bear in mind the model does not predict the path of extent, just a point 50 days ahead based on the currently available data. This prediction is generated every day, and you can connect the resulting points using the thick blue line, and it looks like a path, but it's not. Just a collection of predictions made at different times for different times.
Caveat: this was discussed last year and many people said it was a predicted path. Just be aware of the various opinions.

Freegrass

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Re: Slater's thread
« Reply #158 on: July 06, 2020, 10:48:08 AM »
Slater is going mental. 4,05 on August 24.
That red over the CAB is where the ice got "stretched out" as I said it back then.
Freethinkers are those who are willing to use their minds without prejudice and without fearing to understand things that clash with their own customs, privileges, or beliefs. This state of mind is not common, but it is essential for right thinking.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Slater's thread
« Reply #159 on: July 06, 2020, 11:18:58 AM »
What does anomaly forecast mean?

That if its 100k below the norm for the time of year now, it will be 100k below the norm for the time of year in future.