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Which forecasts do you prefer? (3 votes)

Wind @ Surface
3 (16.7%)
Wind + Temp @ Surface
9 (50%)
Wind + Temp @ 1000hPa
0 (0%)
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
1 (5.6%)
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
4 (22.2%)
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
0 (0%)
Another one which I'll write down below
1 (5.6%)
These forecasts are completely useless
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 11

Author Topic: Nullschool Forecasts  (Read 16793 times)

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #150 on: December 23, 2019, 01:18:16 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/18 to 12/23, Forecast: 12/23 to 12/26.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #151 on: December 29, 2019, 02:31:50 AM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
probably discontinued


Sorry about that. Nullschool's WPD overlay went blank some days ago. If it comes back, the animation series can resume. I can't find an adequate substitute, so this might be it, for awhile.

I'm very grateful for the opportunity to share some visual inquiries here. Thanks, everyone!

kassy

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #152 on: December 29, 2019, 04:48:26 PM »
Lets hope it comes back. Have you asked them why it is blank now?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

gerontocrat

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #153 on: December 29, 2019, 05:25:26 PM »
Lets hope it comes back. Have you asked them why it is blank now?

And "calling year 2020. Where are you?"
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #154 on: December 29, 2019, 05:35:24 PM »
Have you asked them why it is blank now?

For my part, I'm satisfied with waiting to see if WPD is dropped from the interface. Right now it's indistinguishable from the None overlay on my machine, and has been for at least a week. Whatever's going on over there, my inquiry would likely be more bothersome than helpful. (Plus: I don't have a contact there -- after all, I haven't paid them anything.) If there's any information available about this outage, I'd certainly be interested.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2019, 05:46:39 PM by Aleph_Null »

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #155 on: January 01, 2020, 04:49:19 PM »
And "calling year 2020. Where are you?"

I've now welcomed the New Year in California, but 2020 has yet to show up on Nullschool's date menu. This gives me hope: maybe everyone's on break out there, and they'll restore WPD when they get back. (I can dream, can't I?)

gerontocrat

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #156 on: January 01, 2020, 10:58:57 PM »
And "calling year 2020. Where are you?"

I've now welcomed the New Year in California, but 2020 has yet to show up on Nullschool's date menu. This gives me hope: maybe everyone's on break out there, and they'll restore WPD when they get back. (I can dream, can't I?)
2020 is there but invisible. After opening Nullschol and choosing date,just ignore the year row and choose the days in January you want. It worked for me. (I checked by selecting 8th Jan, i.e. more than 5 days forward, and it responded - no data.)

I guess they, like me, are having some problems with the year change.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #157 on: January 17, 2020, 11:03:31 PM »
In this experiment, I want to observe sea-level pressure superimposed on wind at the 250hPa geopotential height (in which I take the bright red bands as an approximation to jet-stream winds) -- to watch the temporal relation. I like the Winkel projection for not losing roundness while showing the whole planetary surface, but it's not as good a view for things specifically Arctic.

The color-scheme of wind remains as captured from Nullschool. MSLP (mean sea-level pressure) was flattened into a grayscale image, so that wind colors stay legible, while low-pressure areas look like shadows. This is my first crack at a quarterly product, which I don't plan to share anywhere else besides this Nullschool Animations thread.

sea-level pressure with wind @ 250hPa
September, October, November 2019.

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #158 on: May 07, 2020, 01:15:49 AM »
Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
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oren

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #159 on: May 07, 2020, 03:14:03 AM »
Thank you FG for posting these periodically. I find them quite useful. And yes, Fram export does appear to be making a comeback

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #160 on: May 07, 2020, 03:33:41 AM »
Thank you FG for posting these periodically. I find them quite useful. And yes, Fram export does appear to be making a comeback
I was surprised to see the dipole break up this quickly. Previous forecasts had it last longer. Or wasn't this the big one yet? Time will tell... But a lot of the ice will still go down the drain this week!  >:( 

Thanks for the support and the kind words!  :D
« Last Edit: May 07, 2020, 03:42:36 AM by Freegrass »
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #161 on: May 09, 2020, 01:42:26 AM »
Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface

It looks like a large amount of ice will be exported out of the arctic in the coming week. Luckily that giant storm at the end will smash itself to dead quickly against Greenland.

This is what the temperature at the pole looks like on day 5 from now...  ???
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/13/1200Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,1723/loc=-00.000,90.000

I'll do temperature tomorrow.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2020, 01:51:27 AM by Freegrass »
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #162 on: May 11, 2020, 01:25:35 AM »
Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #163 on: May 12, 2020, 01:20:32 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface

I'm curious to see how much ice will pile up in the ESS with those anticyclonic winds.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2020, 01:44:16 PM by Freegrass »
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #164 on: May 18, 2020, 12:45:18 PM »
I'm going to make another forecast today, and I'm curious to see which one is preferred here. I always like the temp @ surface one, and the wind, but I've added this poll now to see what others like.

You can change your 3 votes at anytime to bring another preference to the top.
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #165 on: May 19, 2020, 01:50:57 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
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Glen Koehler

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #166 on: May 19, 2020, 05:57:26 PM »
   For the Kara Sea, in addition to warm surface temperatures in the current GFS forecast (which are easier to see in Climate Renanalyzer), it seems like the winds (which are easier to see in Nullschool) will also contribute to ice losses over the next 5 days.

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #167 on: May 20, 2020, 01:50:56 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #168 on: May 20, 2020, 02:00:10 PM »
   For the Kara Sea, in addition to warm surface temperatures in the current GFS forecast (which are easier to see in Climate Renanalyzer), it seems like the winds (which are easier to see in Nullschool) will also contribute to ice losses over the next 5 days.
Hi Glen. I don't think the wind in the Kara will be a very big problem. They seem to pass very quickly, so the impact should be minimal.

Edit: Temperatures in the Kara will be a problem of course. Combined with the wind, the Kara will suffer.

What I'll be watching for is if the ice pack will spread out again with that low centered over the CAB. The High from last week compacted the ice, and I don't think it all froze together much yet. That could mean that extent will increase again over the coming days.

It's interesting to see the ESS fill up again as I predicted. Of course that means more open water in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas.

Edit 2: Will that high on top of the Beaufort start up the Beaufort gyre? Or is that too early still?
« Last Edit: May 20, 2020, 03:21:02 PM by Freegrass »
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #169 on: May 21, 2020, 04:28:47 AM »
WTF happened? Is modeling software fucking up because they're unable to adjust for particle reduction due to the crisis?

Is shit getting worse then models could predict? Or am I just too drunk?
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 04:37:51 AM by Freegrass »
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Glen Koehler

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #170 on: May 21, 2020, 03:14:14 PM »
      FG  and others - when you comment on a benign or threatening forecast, please specify what it is you are referring to.  Otherwise, I may not be able to see what you are seeing, and I suspect neither do a lot of other people.  Sorry to nag, but this has happened a lot lately by various posters - noting something extreme or of supposed importance without specifying what it is. 
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 08:05:08 PM by Glen Koehler »

oren

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #171 on: May 24, 2020, 02:42:58 PM »
I sympathize Glen. I've learned over the years to recognize some of the hinted phenomena, but I still often find myself cluelessly scratching my head while someone goes gaga about a forecast.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 11:33:43 PM by oren »

HapHazard

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #172 on: May 24, 2020, 09:33:48 PM »
I sympathize Glen. I've learned over the years to recognize some of the hinted phenomena, but I still often mind myself cluelessly scratching my head while someone goes gaga about a forecast.

Same boat here. I get some of it, but other times I don't know what the heck a poster is on about.

It's like having a nice conversation with someone then out of nowhere they throw in a few sentences using an alien language, then revert back like no big deal.  ??? ???

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #173 on: May 26, 2020, 01:57:31 PM »
Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
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Ice Shieldz

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #174 on: May 26, 2020, 10:36:12 PM »
Hey Freegrass  - thanks for your excellent animations. This has probably been discussed before, but is there anyway you can include the surface temps with the winds? Seems more important now for late spring and summer. 🌞

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #175 on: May 27, 2020, 01:55:37 AM »

Hi Ice. Thank you for the kind words! I usually post the Wind + Temp @ Surface videos on the melting thread, because as you said, they are the most valuable right now.

You can find the latest one from Monday here.

It's probably a good idea that I will link to them here in the future. Thanks for bringing that to my attention!
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #176 on: May 27, 2020, 01:36:34 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #177 on: May 27, 2020, 02:13:37 PM »
      FG  and others - when you comment on a benign or threatening forecast, please specify what it is you are referring to.  Otherwise, I may not be able to see what you are seeing, and I suspect neither do a lot of other people.  Sorry to nag, but this has happened a lot lately by various posters - noting something extreme or of supposed importance without specifying what it is.
The problem is that I'm starting to understand the impact of the weather on the ice, but I don't have the skills to explain it all in a proper scientific way. My brain works completely different... I can see it and understand it, but I can't explain it...

I'm always hoping I can find someone who could...
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Glen Koehler

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #178 on: May 28, 2020, 05:32:25 AM »
       FG - I'm not asking for a seminar, or an explanation of the reasoning for your alarm, just the name of the thing that grabbed your attention.  Is it the wind?  The temperature?  Particular locations? Precipitable water?  Is it a strong low-pressure system near the Bering Strait?  Or high pressure dominating the CAB?

       Since the image clips don't show the scale legend to allow interpreting what the colors mean, and since most of us won't bother to go over to NullSchool to find the legend bar, the colors in the images are intriguing but not quantitatively informative.  If you are referring to temperature in a certain region, use your text message to tell us how high they are such that they grabbed your eye.

       If you just say "Oh My God!" with no text to identify what it is you are referring too, and post an image without a legend, it may not be clear to us what has your attention or what the image is representing. 

       Yes, we can watch the clip and get some sense of it, especially if we are used to NullSchool images.  So it's not that the images are useless without some explanation and a legend.  But if you are going to the trouble to make a clip, why not gift wrap it just a little bit to make it more meaningful? 

       When this is all in the history books, and your great grandchildren are looking back at what their 'Oompah' did during the great meltdown of 202?, make them proud.  Until then, thanks for your efforts.  I enjoy the freshness of your wonder and curiosity, and have learned from your queries.  Like you, I am a non-expert tuning into this drama, and just trying to figure out what's going on.  Even though it is a horror show when you consider the larger implications, it is a fascinating process to watch.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2020, 05:39:08 AM by Glen Koehler »

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #179 on: May 30, 2020, 02:15:21 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface

It looks like fram export will be back in a few days from now.
Curious to see if that wind in the Nares strait will move the ice in the Lincoln sea.
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