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Which forecasts do you prefer? (3 votes)

Wind @ Surface
4 (16.7%)
Wind + Temp @ Surface
10 (41.7%)
Wind + Temp @ 1000hPa
0 (0%)
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
4 (16.7%)
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
5 (20.8%)
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
0 (0%)
Another one which I'll write down below
1 (4.2%)
Wind @ Surface + 3-hour Precipitation Accumulation
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 13

Author Topic: Nullschool Forecasts  (Read 26349 times)

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #250 on: July 19, 2020, 01:31:18 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

HapHazard

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #251 on: July 19, 2020, 09:02:10 PM »
Thanks again for these posts, FG.

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #252 on: July 20, 2020, 01:06:53 PM »
Thanks again for these posts, FG.
You're welcome HH. Glad you like them. Don't forget to click the like button from time to time. ;)
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #253 on: July 20, 2020, 01:16:28 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

I really thought we would be getting a bigger storm than what's coming now. So much energy around, and this thing seems to be anorexic...
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #254 on: July 21, 2020, 01:52:41 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

blumenkraft

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #255 on: July 21, 2020, 02:27:25 PM »
Just listening to the Deutschlandfunk science podcast. They mentioned the accuracy of weather forecasts decreased in 2020 due to fewer airplanes collecting data (Covid effect).

Thank you for those anyway, FG!! :)

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #256 on: July 21, 2020, 03:09:24 PM »
Yes, I heard about that problem a few times already, and the forecasts do suck hard this season. I thought the models had some problems with clean air, but airplanes is a more logical explanation.

Long term forecasts are completely useless now, but short term forecasts have their use.

I'm just waiting for that big storm now that's been predicted a gazillion times already in July, but I think the aliens keep stealing them...  ::)
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #257 on: July 23, 2020, 09:07:07 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

blumenkraft

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #258 on: July 23, 2020, 09:42:19 AM »
Clear sky over the Nares. Lookoing forward to make some nice export GIFs...  :-X

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #259 on: July 24, 2020, 01:40:13 PM »
Clear sky over the Nares. Looking forward to make some nice export GIFs...  :-X
It sucks hard that there are so many clouds over the ice right now. I was really getting used to clear skies to view the state of the ice.

Curious to see if that big floe will end up in Nares and block the channel. But that's for another thread.
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #260 on: July 24, 2020, 01:41:00 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #261 on: July 25, 2020, 07:43:15 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large Gif!
« Last Edit: July 25, 2020, 08:01:02 AM by Freegrass »
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #262 on: July 25, 2020, 01:54:31 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large Gif!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #263 on: July 25, 2020, 08:34:56 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Large gif!

It looks like tomorrow we'll know how strong the ice in the central CAB is. The wind is not that strong, but could certainly do some damage to weak ice.

The Pacific side is a disaster in the making.

Should I keep using Gifs, or switch back to MP4?
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

oren

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #264 on: July 25, 2020, 10:05:06 PM »
Use whatever is more convenient for you here. But in the season thread only gifs, to avoid auto-loading.

blumenkraft

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #265 on: July 25, 2020, 10:06:55 PM »
What Oren said. :)

oren

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #266 on: July 25, 2020, 10:17:51 PM »
And I should add that your contribution with these animated forecasts is much appreciated. Another one of those things I never bothered to check systematically, and is now being fed in a timely manner to me and many other readers.
Personally it is much easier for me to view the winds and temps this way than to read the atmospheric pressure contours that others find so intuitive.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2020, 09:51:14 AM by oren »

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #267 on: July 26, 2020, 08:32:52 AM »
And I should that your contribution with these animated forecasts is much appreciated. Another one of those things I never bothered to check systematically, and is now being fed in a timely manner to me and many other readers.
Personally it is much easier for me to view the winds and temps this way than to read the atmospheric pressure contours that others find so intuitive.
I agee Oren. Without a background in weather forecasting it's not always easy to interpret those forecast maps Friv and others use. Those charts also lack the details that can be seen on Nullschool.

My apologies for what happened yesterday. That was just an experiment gone bad.
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #268 on: July 26, 2020, 09:14:19 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind @ Surface
Large GiFS!

I'm curious to see what those persistent winds on the Atlantic side towards the Laptev will do to the ice. Apart from early on, those winds aren't that strong, but they are persistent and will be blowing over weak ice.

Export through Nares will be on hold for now.

I'm gonna stick to GIfs here as well if it's not a problem for server space on ASIF. They require one less step to make, and that way they don't all together autoload when people visit this thread.
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #269 on: July 27, 2020, 08:18:22 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind @ Surface
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!

And so it begins... We went from a 2 days storm to no storm and back to a five day storm now. It does weaken after a few days, but who is to say it can't find more energy to grow some more? Only time will tell...
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #270 on: July 27, 2020, 09:36:42 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiFS!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Rod

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #271 on: July 27, 2020, 09:52:27 PM »
Wow! That is a scary forecast for the ice!

Thank you for posting these Freegrass.

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #272 on: July 27, 2020, 10:11:37 PM »
I'm very surprised that this storm isn't growing bigger with all that energy around. But that's probably my lack of knowledge about those weather systems.

It'll be interesting to see what will happen to the ice NE of Greenland. HYCOM is saying that the ice there is very weak. Time will tell...
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

igs

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #273 on: July 28, 2020, 12:01:17 AM »
Wow! That is a scary forecast for the ice!

Thank you for posting these Freegrass.

True that and just imagine what will happen to the now slightly dispersed ice in warmer surrounding seas.

Area is on the drop and lowest already and won't fall back anytime soon and extent will follow suit with a few major successive drops once the dispersed junks of ice hat a few days time to melt.

Of course we all dunno the weather until it happens but currently it looks that way.