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Freegrass

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Nullschool Animations
« on: September 09, 2019, 03:12:29 PM »
I will be posting my Nullschool animations here from now on.
I hope you Like Them! And don't be shy to post your own!

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« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 11:30:06 AM by Freegrass »
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blumenkraft

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Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2019, 03:27:12 PM »
That's a good idea, Freegrass. :)
Refugees welcome

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2019, 03:40:16 PM »
It's difficult to do good for everyone, so this is an elegant solution.
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2019, 07:15:54 PM »
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water Forecast
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 11:27:34 AM by Freegrass »
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stjuuv

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Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2019, 07:39:09 PM »
Thank you for these, Freegrass!

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2019, 07:43:52 PM »
You're welcome! Glad you like them!
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2019, 09:48:33 PM »
Wind @ 250hPa Forecast
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 11:27:56 AM by Freegrass »
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petm

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Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2019, 04:03:19 AM »
Good job on making this thread Freegrass. :)

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2019, 08:10:15 AM »
Wind @ Surface Forecast

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« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 11:28:04 AM by Freegrass »
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2019, 08:58:21 AM »
Wind + Temp @ Surface

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« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 11:28:44 AM by Freegrass »
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Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
« Reply #10 on: September 10, 2019, 09:59:08 AM »
I also thank you, Freegrass, but I'm also interested in hindcasts. Perhaps this is an appropriate place for me to explain why -- without spawning an OT clog in the main thread where angels fear to tread? (Speaking of chatter: I must say I am continually blown away that technology at the level of Nullschool is freely available. The more I learn about atmospheric science, the more amazed I am.)

With my production technique (using a Photoshop doc to stack up screengrabs -- what the hell) I'm seeing a lot more volatility in hindcasts than might be expected. I mean, this is supposed to be past-tense, but it hasn't settled down, evidently, because data assimilation continues for awhile.

That was my impression, but I wanted proof. So I put together the following to illustrate the jitter of data assimilation -- with 24 hours between screengrab runs (the more recent, with the same timestamp, appearing second). Sorry this one has to be so jittery.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 10:14:26 AM by Aleph_Null »

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2019, 10:07:51 AM »
Oops, I got so relaxed in your nice den here, Freegrass, I forgot to say why I like hindcasts. Watching the smoothed-out choreography of the hindcast versus the toggling, increasingly uncertain-looking movement quality of the forecast... that's what interests me. When I realized that Dorian was playing the same guessing game we've seen in the Arctic all year, I wanted to find out more about how models work, and whether chaotic factors are noticeably rising.

Thanks for listening!

Freegrass

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Nullschool Animations
« Reply #12 on: September 10, 2019, 10:48:34 AM »
I must say I am continually blown away that technology at the level of Nullschool is freely available. The more I learn about atmospheric science, the more amazed I am.
Thanks for the kind words and your contributions Aleph_Null! Keep them coming! I've been using Nullschool for many years now, and I love it. I prefer these visuals over raw data any day. That's probably because I'm not a real scientist, and I'm pretty sure there are many more people like me on this forum; People without a masters degree that just want to know more about the climate.

Did you know Nullschool is an open source Github project?
https://github.com/cambecc/earth

I just changed the topic title to "Nullschool Animations", that way it includes forecasts, hindcasts, and specials. Or do you have another suggestion?

Again, thank you for adding to this thread! There are so many possibilities with Nullschool that I'm sure we can turn this into a valuable place.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 11:09:11 AM by Freegrass »
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2019, 11:37:19 AM »
Animation of intense 2019 Siberian wildfires, visualized as carbon monoxide concentrations.

This two month time-lapse animation shows carbon monoxide surface concentration over Siberia, as modeled by GEOS-5, between June 1st and Aug 23rd, 2019.

« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 11:42:35 AM by Freegrass »
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2019, 11:41:20 AM »
Time-lapse animation of 2019 Amazon rainforest fires visualized with carbon monoxide.

This animation is a one month time-lapse of carbon monoxide surface concentration, as modeled by GEOS-5. Fires begin to intensify on Aug 5th, 2019.

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Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2019, 12:11:13 PM »
That'll do, thanks. It looks like you're starting to flex your knuckles and dress up the place with fabulous new designs, now that you have some room to work!

The daily pulse of smoke and flame in both of those time-lapse offerings is something I haven't seen before. It looks like respiration. I never imagined massive wildfires could seem so organic, like something happening in a petri dish. Deeply shocking.

Now I'm wondering what Nullschool thinks of those fires... oh: I see something very similar in Chem mode.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 12:27:06 PM by Aleph_Null »

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2019, 12:49:57 PM »
The daily pulse of smoke and flame in both of those time-lapse offerings is something I haven't seen before. It looks like respiration. I never imagined massive wildfires could seem so organic, like something happening in a petri dish. Deeply shocking.
That's actually day and night that you are seeing. The trees must be the ones doing the breathing.

Quote
Now I'm wondering what Nullschool thinks of those fires.
That animation was posted by Cameron Beccario on his twitter feed, the man who created Nullschool. https://twitter.com/cambecc

I have to figure out now how to make such smooth animations. They're so well made.
I'm combining GIMP with EZgif now. I really need to learn more about GIMP, and how to create great animations with it.
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #17 on: September 10, 2019, 01:40:21 PM »
Wind @ Surface Forecast

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Jim Hunt

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #18 on: September 10, 2019, 02:55:44 PM »
I really need to learn more about GIMP, and how to create great animations with it.

You may wish to peruse the "Creating Animated GIFs" thread?
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #19 on: September 10, 2019, 03:44:42 PM »
I really need to learn more about GIMP, and how to create great animations with it.

You may wish to peruse the "Creating Animated GIFs" thread?
Thanks Jim! That's a lot of information. The A-team really went for it...
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Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #20 on: September 10, 2019, 05:11:42 PM »
The A-team really went for it...

I came across this interesting reply in the animated gifs thread:

One of these days I'm going to read through this thread again from start to finish, and will then hopefully fully understand what it is you guys are doing with what, and maybe then I can be a target user who is able to express what he needs.

Sorry for not understanding already. My head is too full. I know you're doing awesome stuff, grade A citizen science.

At the moment, I'm having similar difficulties. Perhaps I'll remain a modest admirer of such works for now. I just hope not to come out with a meteorological projection as mistaken as the Sharpie Over Alabama (wasn't that a Billie Holliday song?)! My "target user" is me. I just make what I want to see, selfish as hell.

Incidentally, Freegrass: Thanks again for reminding folks of this thread in the main thread. I'll do the same from now on. No point sprucing up the place if we never get any company.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 05:20:26 PM by Aleph_Null »

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2019, 01:26:21 AM »
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

2019-09-10 21:00 UTC
2019-09-15 18:00 UTC
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2019, 01:54:38 AM »
Wind + Temp @ 1000hPa

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oren

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2019, 03:22:15 AM »
This thread is a good idea.
In any case, better a smaller audience but that of of willing users who choose to participate and appreciate the effort.

binntho

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #24 on: September 11, 2019, 06:25:55 AM »
This thread is a good idea.
In any case, better a smaller audience but that of of willing users who choose to participate and appreciate the effort.
+1

I'm one of the regulars and appreciate the effort!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #25 on: September 11, 2019, 10:42:57 AM »
Thanks for the support guys! Like I said before, I think this is an elegant solution. Maybe a smaller crowd indeed, but that can always change. I love doing this. I learn a lot from it. And it's one of my little contributions to the climate change fight.

I'll do my best to make the graphics better! Feel free to add your own, and I'm always open to suggestions.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2019, 11:07:15 AM by Freegrass »
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #26 on: September 11, 2019, 02:09:41 PM »
Wind + Temp @ Surface

2019-09-11 09:00 UTC
2019-09-16 06:00 UTC

I'm making the GIFs now completely with GIMP, and I think they already look a little bit better, no? They are certainly smaller in size. I just need to figure out now how to make the transitions smoother between the frames. I still use EZGif to convert the GIF to an MP4.
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #27 on: September 11, 2019, 05:15:13 PM »
When I was posting videos, I used ffmpeg to convert GIFs to MP4s. I just took a quick look on Google and there are all kind of options for smoothing videos by interpolating frames.

https://www.google.com/search?q=ffmpeg+smoothing

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #28 on: September 11, 2019, 05:16:27 PM »
I just need to figure out now how to make the transitions smoother between the frames.

Attached please find a brief test of EZGif's crossfade (I always convert to mp4 before downloading), with frame-delay set to 100 and crossfade-delay set to 20. This is the first ten frames of my jitter test, above, slowed down a lot.

I seem to recall attaining a BA degree (fwiw!) in painting & animation. Somehow I gravitate to the non-lucrative pursuits. At any rate, perhaps it's interesting that my current focus (the swirly suites of IWPD) calls for an intentionally jerky look (because I want to scrutinize each 3-hour guess as it crosses my screen), while you aspire to the naturalistic feeling of the unforgettable COsc videos you posted. We both explore graphics to understand how weather works, but from different angles, at the moment -- with regard to crossfade, at least!

Note: This test of ten frames with crossfade makes a larger file than 50 frames without.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2019, 05:26:25 PM by Aleph_Null »

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #29 on: September 11, 2019, 06:02:04 PM »
Thanks for all the help! I just found this software. Is anyone familiar with it? I'm gonna play around with it a little to see what I can do with this. I've never done video editing though. This is all new for me, but it's always good to learn new things!

OpenShot is an award-winning free and open-source video editor for Linux, Mac, and Windows.
https://www.openshot.org/
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #30 on: September 11, 2019, 09:16:47 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
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Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #31 on: September 11, 2019, 09:57:22 PM »
On guessing games and interpretation of data animation

The architects of the weather-data detection, assimilation, and prediction frameworks culminating in GFS & EURO might bristle at the suggestion that theirs, the most expensive and sophisticated stretch to play the odds in human history (not to mention humankind's premiere scientific accomplishment, imho), amounts to a guessing game. A super smart guessing game: a half-dozen interlocking differential equations conceived as an impossible dream by Vilhelm Bjerknes -- how could this work when it takes an army of human "computers" more than a year to figure out tomorrow's weather?

Somehow it all came together, with a little help from supercomputers, and from visionaries wild enough to see what happens if you fly into the eye of a hurricane. That's Harry Wexler, who bestowed my mantra: "The atmosphere is indivisible." From this mantra emerges all understanding. It'll take you clear through Climate Science to general enlightenment. Everyone's allowed one foolish hope. I've got dibs on that one...

Regarding the Arctic this summer, I hear consternation about continual disagreement between models in the 2019 melting-season thread. (Lurkers like me have been kindly re-christened "new ice" -- I don't know if this level of forecasting churn is unusual or not.) Lurking Dorian raises the question: given that a model's basic function is to project forward from past events, is it reasonable to expect a model capable of predicting the unprecedented?

So there are a couple of things my swirly suite of IWPD animations are meant to keep an eye on: the health of the planet, and how well the calculus of GFS holds up today, under apparently burgeoning chaotic factors. In particular, these animations intend to sharpen questions about the model to inquiries such as "What, where, when, and how did the forecast miss, in this hand of the guessing game?"
« Last Edit: September 11, 2019, 10:23:25 PM by Aleph_Null »

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #32 on: September 11, 2019, 10:41:23 PM »
"What, where, when, and how did the forecast miss, in this hand of the guessing game?"
I don't think the models missed. I think someone altered the weather...

15 or 20 years ago I think it was I watched a documentary - on National Geographic I think it was - about "steering" hurricanes. They did it by altering the pressure through cloud seeding of systems around it. They said then it was possible to do this. So by this time, we have all these marvelous models that can predict the weather. So I don't think it's unreasonable to think that by now they have completely figured it out how to steer hurricanes. Just ask the model...

I remember from the documentary that they said that the more time they have, the easier it is to "steer" the hurricane. So when a hurricane threatens to destroy Mar-a-Lago, and someone tells Trump that they have the technology to avoid disaster, do you really think Trump would say no? He wanted to "nuke" the hurricanes...

So I don't think the predictions were wrong. I think that someone turned this hurricane into a weapon to destroy a "shithole country"...
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philopek

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #33 on: September 11, 2019, 10:47:39 PM »
"What, where, when, and how did the forecast miss, in this hand of the guessing game?"
I don't think the models missed. I think someone altered the weather...

15 or 20 years ago I think it was I watched a documentary - on National Geographic I think it was - about "steering" hurricanes. They did it by altering the pressure through cloud seeding of systems around it. They said then it was possible to do this. So by this time, we have all these marvelous models that can predict the weather. So I don't think it's unreasonable to think that by now they have completely figured it out how to steer hurricanes. Just ask the model...

I remember from the documentary that they said that the more time they have, the easier it is to "steer" the hurricane. So when a hurricane threatens to destroy Mar-a-Lago, and someone tells Trump that they have the technology to avoid disaster, do you really think Trump would say no? He wanted to "nuke" the hurricanes...

So I don't think the predictions were wrong. I think that someone turned this hurricane into a weapon to destroy a "shithole country"...

If that's a serious assumption/conclusion it has probably taken a lot of free grass LOL

Hoping for your sense of humor?

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #34 on: September 11, 2019, 10:51:36 PM »
If that's a serious assumption/conclusion it has probably taken a lot of free grass LOL

Hoping for your sense of humor?
No, I'm serious. I did watch that documentary, so I know it can be done. The question is; Has it ever been done? And there have been a few hurricanes now that completely veered off the predicted path. So I'm serious. I know it can be done. I'm just wondering if it ever was done.
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sailor

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #35 on: September 11, 2019, 11:10:24 PM »
"What, where, when, and how did the forecast miss, in this hand of the guessing game?"
I don't think the models missed. I think someone altered the weather...

15 or 20 years ago I think it was I watched a documentary - on National Geographic I think it was - about "steering" hurricanes. They did it by altering the pressure through cloud seeding of systems around it. They said then it was possible to do this. So by this time, we have all these marvelous models that can predict the weather. So I don't think it's unreasonable to think that by now they have completely figured it out how to steer hurricanes. Just ask the model...

I remember from the documentary that they said that the more time they have, the easier it is to "steer" the hurricane. So when a hurricane threatens to destroy Mar-a-Lago, and someone tells Trump that they have the technology to avoid disaster, do you really think Trump would say no? He wanted to "nuke" the hurricanes...

So I don't think the predictions were wrong. I think that someone turned this hurricane into a weapon to destroy a "shithole country"...
No, the creator of TropicalTidbits, Levi Cowan explains days before Dorian reaching Florida the uncertainty that there was depending on the strength of two highs at both sides of Florida, the interaction with a trough on North America and the relative timing of the hurricane arrival and of the displacement of the trough.

I advice you to watch this video and others that he prepared daily about the hurricane evolution and forecast.



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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #36 on: September 11, 2019, 11:14:56 PM »
Thanks Sailor. I'll watch it later. Probably better we move this discussion to another thread now. My bad to go OT!
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Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #37 on: September 11, 2019, 11:59:46 PM »
My bad to go OT!

OT? Oh shoot, I was proceeding on the assumption this is the OT thread. Now I'll have to sharpen up my discursive excursions, lest they wander into the dreaded swamplands. (Just yanking chains here, I hope that's okay in our Nullschool Greenroom.)

On-thread to the degree it's an image, off-thread in that it doesn't move. The following illustrates a double-exposure idea I'm kicking around. That IWPD layer works okay with the wind streaks as a monochrome image, which I can layer into a double-exposure as a tint. This one points out some places the forecast was wrong, from a couple of days before.

Pretty darn close, to be sure. The green layer is assimilated, the pink is forecast.

(Regarding whether weather can be controlled, I need to learn more about chaos theory, and the role it played in the development of atmospheric science.)

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #38 on: September 12, 2019, 01:41:22 AM »
Latest update, Wind @ Surface, September 11 - 16

Last week a depression dominated the CAB for a few days and the ice dispersed. Will this high pressure system compact the ice again and weld it together in a deep freeze?
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #39 on: September 12, 2019, 01:36:57 PM »
Latest update, Wind + Temp @ Surface, September 12 - 17
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Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #40 on: September 12, 2019, 01:53:31 PM »
Exclusively in the Nullschool Animations thread, this hindcast/forecast is the twin of the one in the main thread, except with the wind streaks turned off. IWPD factors in wind velocity, at least. Having a less fuzzy area to track will hopefully facilitate mechanical comparisons, such as pixel-counts. (Possibly a pixel hack could track GFS forecasting skill in the Arctic, as it varies.)

Hindcast: 9/8 to 9/12, Forecast: 9/12 to 9/16.
IWPD @ 850hPa [Instantaneous Wind Power Density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3]

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #41 on: September 12, 2019, 07:21:38 PM »
Latest update, Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
September 12 - 17
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #42 on: September 13, 2019, 07:08:27 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast.
I also included the last 24 hours this time. Use the pause function and the slider to go frame by frame.

Wind @ Surface
12 - 18 september
« Last Edit: September 13, 2019, 07:43:31 AM by Freegrass »
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #43 on: September 13, 2019, 07:22:11 AM »
Temp @ Surface
13 - 18 september
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #44 on: September 13, 2019, 08:01:58 AM »
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
13 - 18 september
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blumenkraft

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #45 on: September 13, 2019, 08:43:15 AM »
This one is most useful. If you could merge the temps in there that would be perfect.
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Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #46 on: September 13, 2019, 12:42:00 PM »
I'm not sure if this is comprehensible, or just confusing. I've combined Aluminium's last with the IWPD layer of my previous hindcast-forecast.

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #47 on: September 13, 2019, 01:04:14 PM »
This one is awesome Aleph_Null! I've been wanting to do this also, but I still have to figure out how.

Thank you for the feedback Blumenkraft! I was thinking that this one would be interesting. Clouds block the heat from escaping, right? And snow insulates the ice from freezing?

A combination of Nullschool graphics is also something that I've been wanting to do. I'll figure it out eventually! ;)

Keep the feedback coming!
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #48 on: September 13, 2019, 01:33:58 PM »
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
13 - 18 september 9 am UTC
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

blumenkraft

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #49 on: September 13, 2019, 01:36:01 PM »
I'm not sure if this is comprehensible, or just confusing.

It is really awesome. !!
Refugees welcome