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Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #100 on: September 20, 2019, 09:40:41 PM »
The OT Gauntlet

In an earlier post, I closed by making fun of moderators a little bit, which should now be tempered with effusive appreciation of how moderation has preserved the value of the historically-vital online resource for the world which is ASIF. There was some fascinating description in the main thread yesterday from Sark, who obviously has profound insights, but leaves many of us in the dust, yearning to better understand the numbers he regularly posts. A couple of posters were finally bold enough to beg for more, and Sark complied, but that led to some of to the usual OT arguments (possibly sooner than necessary, imho).

At any rate, a positive outcome was a most loving and concise explanation of why OT matters, from F.Tnioli, which I'd like to reproduce here for reference. It's a subject of interest to Nullschool Animators, perhaps:

Sam, multi-year dynamics are off-topic here as long as discussing them does not lead to anyhow better understanding of the 2019 melting season. The _topic_ is named "The 2019 melting season", and thus any discussion which does not and/or can not allow to gain knowledge about this one single melting season, in here - is off-topic by definition. This does not anyhow reduce such discussion's own value, of course. The term "off-topic" merely indicates the discussion, however valuable, is not supposed to happen in this particular topic, nothing more and nothing else.

That said, there are indeed some subjects which, despite being off-topic, may be allowed to be discussed in this topic by the board's administration, to some finite length. The one Sark so originally touched - is probably among them. Importance and obvious relation to this melting season are among probable reasons for it to be. However, please always remember that the more off-topic discussion we'd do here, the less compact and "handy" the topic becomes for great many people who come to it for information specifically about the melting season itself. It is, you see, much about respect to other people to limit off-topic discussion here quite much, even if and when there would be good reasons to have it.

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #101 on: September 21, 2019, 08:45:16 PM »
The following animated investigation (and monthly documentation scheme) was conceived, in part, to validate my hunch that such hijinks @ 850hPa bear a temporal relationship to jiggling ice. At least one of our correspondents doesn't think mp4's belong in the main thread, period (an attitude addressed previously). I have implicitly pled guilty to presumptuousness in planting several 5 MB datamap-movies where their heft was troublesome. I wanted assurance from the iwpd data that it does, indeed, seem to move with the ice. Without it, I would withhold my 1/4 scale, doubletime hindcast/forecast from the season thread, even though it's only 3/4 of a MB.

My nickname for the following is Arctic Synchronicity because I'm wary of cause and effect around the atmosphere (remembering my hurricane-hunter's mantra). We see two things happening in concert, not necessarily one causing the other. U. Hamburg's sea-ice concentration maps are wondrous to behold. I feel immeasurably wealthy to have access (like everyone else) to their AMSR2 datamaps.

That much needed to be said. I'll save further reflections for later, except to mention in passing that I'm happy about how this experiment turned out, and it wouldn't have happened without the fellow who started Nullschool Animations, for whom my gratitude is boundless.

Dedicated with love and respect to Freegrass...

amsr2+iwpd@850hPa (full-size versions)
2019 March-April-May

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #102 on: September 21, 2019, 08:47:55 PM »
One more post with doubletime miniviews attached, in case these are handy anywhere. The weather moves so quickly it can be tough to follow at two frames per day. (Full-size versions of amsr2+iwpd carry four frames of weather data per day.)

amsr2+iwpd@850hPa (tiny versions)
2019 March-April-May

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #103 on: September 22, 2019, 12:48:23 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
September 21 - 26

Wind + Temp @ Surface
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #104 on: September 22, 2019, 01:52:10 PM »
Hindcast: 9/18 to 9/22, Forecast: 9/22 to 9/26.
IWPD @ 850hPa, Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa (full-size versions)

[Instantaneous Wind Power Density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3]

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #105 on: September 23, 2019, 02:02:21 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 22- 28

Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
« Last Edit: September 23, 2019, 02:30:18 PM by Freegrass »
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #106 on: September 23, 2019, 06:22:41 PM »
Suddenly last summer...

amsr2+iwpd@850hPa (full-size versions)
2019 June-July-August

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #107 on: September 23, 2019, 06:25:24 PM »
amsr2+iwpd@850hPa (tiny versions)
2019 June-July-August

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #108 on: September 23, 2019, 11:43:17 PM »
This half-month, too-recent acquisition still looks a little wild, because data-assimilation for 850hPa takes a while, I suspect. At any rate, the grabs I got in this run leave me with a thorough means of independently determining, on the output end, when the GFS data from Nullschool settles down. I wouldn't be surprised if it takes longer than two weeks, though.

My impression, educated solely by the data, is that much about 850hPa is inferred from diverse sources of measurement. Initial approximations get revised to make fluid-dynamical sense, perhaps. (The forecast end of hindcast/forecast views I've shared are replete with loud examples of fluid-dynamical apparent nonsense, from one 3-hour interval to the next. Sorry about that.)

At any rate, this quick take should be deprecated when the full-month version (which should be smoother) joins the archive.

[weather data acquired 9/23]
amsr2+iwpd@850hPa (full-size version)
2019 September 1-15

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #109 on: September 24, 2019, 01:02:52 PM »
Hindcast: 9/20 to 9/24, Forecast: 9/24 to 9/28.
IWPD @ 850hPa, Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa (full-size versions)


[Instantaneous Wind Power Density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #110 on: September 24, 2019, 10:32:12 PM »
Same as the half-month quick-take before, only adding a little mean sea-level pressure to the mix. A triple-layer cake. I'm wary of making it too complicated (not for production, for the viewer). My first impression: this way might be more legible for me, trying to read the weather as the frames go by. There are basic cognitive reasons I prefer blobs to streaks, again having to do with avoiding excessive noisiness for the viewer. The AMSR2 datamaps are so beautiful, I mean to slightly illuminate without blocking them.

amsr2+mslp+iwpd@850hPa.mp4
2019 September 1-15

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #111 on: September 25, 2019, 09:55:33 AM »
One more try, with more pressure. Sorry to post a third revision if that's annoying. Possibly it's interesting to some here to watch something like this develop.

amsr2+mslp+iwpd@850hPa.mp4
2019 September 1-15

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #112 on: September 27, 2019, 01:33:24 PM »
Hindcast: 9/22 to 9/27, Forecast: 9/27 to 9/30.
AMSR2 [U. Bremen sea ice concentration] + MSLP [mean sea level pressure] + IWPD@850hPa [instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3] (full-size version)

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #113 on: September 27, 2019, 08:08:14 PM »
Sky & Ice

The closer I examine U. Bremen sea ice concentration datamaps [ASI (from AMSR2) ver. 5.4, Grid 6.25 km], the more I find to appreciate. The depth of information compiled in their visual renditions is amazing -- particularly when compared sequentially. But -- what is it with these people? -- someone over there decided it would also be informative to make their datamap renditions beautiful, of all things! A humble artist stands at risk of falling in love.

I've heard the question raised: What are you-all trying to prove with these animations? Perfectly sensible question, I think, from busy people with no time for any of that touchy-feely nonsense. I can't speak for anyone else but myself. The nature of my work is more a question than a statement. The sky & ice relate to each other in so many complex ways -- can sequential imagery bring to light any interesting details of that relationship?

For me it can, but U. Bremen's naturalistic-looking approach constrains me, as I figure out how much sky to show with this ice (I know it's concentration data, but it sure looks like ice). Cognitively, we're simply incapable of comprehending two unrelated things simultaneously. (Try counting to ten: English number-names for even, German for odd. No, I mean out loud, and faster. See?) There's so much happening in the atmosphere every three hours (as reported by Nullschool). If I don't want to graphically blast U. Bremen's gorgeous work to smithereens with incomprehensible noise, I can only pick a few key details.

I've settled on the depiction above for both the hindcast-forecast and for the monthly look-back I'm working on. Taking it to the hindcast-forecast necessitated a second (usually redundant) date-stamp pertaining only to the once-a-day AMSR2 image (so that the date-stamp is always accurate for the AMSR2 datamap displayed).

As part of production, I wind up compiling unadorned AMSR2 monthly sequences. Below is August 2019.

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #114 on: September 30, 2019, 02:14:37 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 9/25 to 9/30, Forecast: 9/30 to 10/3.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #115 on: October 03, 2019, 01:21:36 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 9/28 to 10/3, Forecast: 10/3 to 10/6.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

sailor

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #116 on: October 03, 2019, 07:33:47 PM »
Hindcast: 9/22 to 9/27, Forecast: 9/27 to 9/30.
AMSR2 [U. Bremen sea ice concentration] + MSLP [mean sea level pressure] + IWPD@850hPa [instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3] (full-size version)
Some of these visualizations are really really good in showing the effect of winds and coldness on ice expansion.
I wonder if you could use amsr2 Uni Hamburg (with a ftp client you can download an entire season if you wanted) and transform the blue outside the ice in transparent, the white of the ice in transparent leaving only the edge against the nullschool material overlaid... Uniquorn uses that to overlay ocean temp and it is really cool.
That I would like to try if I had the software/skills. Which I do not.
On the thin ice of modern life

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #117 on: October 03, 2019, 10:43:26 PM »
Some of these visualizations are really really good in showing the effect of winds and coldness on ice expansion.
I wonder if you could use amsr2 Uni Hamburg (with a ftp client you can download an entire season if you wanted) and transform the blue outside the ice in transparent, the white of the ice in transparent leaving only the edge against the nullschool material overlaid...

Thank you most egregiously for your kind words. The Monthly Review portion of my "pressure, etc." series  is the main emphasis of my effort. Different folks have different approaches. My idea is to keep to the same visual language, as it were, for both the Hindcast-Forecast and the Monthly Review (not yet released). Hopefully, the two modest views can reinforce and explain each other. My overarching goal is merely to provide concise, comprehensible documentation of atmosphere and sea ice as they engage each other, through the seasons.

For the first time ever in my career as a production artist, I'm under no obligation to heed the demands of design-by-committee here, and I can't fully express how exhilarating that freedom feels for me! From my professional experience I know that ambition kills, if I take on too much at once, it will be too much for the form of sequential imagery I work in. Just try explaining something like that to a damn committee!

So I'm not necessarily looking for new visual experiments (thanks anyways, I might in future be probing mechanically to assess forecasting skill, that kind of thing). The expressiveness of the U. Bremen maps has me so floored, I can't imagine anything better, for my purposes. I even like the occasional stab of gray no-data, to remind folks this isn't really a photo!

I go back many seasons from monthly directories like this at U. Bremen, at present:
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2019/oct/Arctic/
« Last Edit: October 03, 2019, 11:14:39 PM by Aleph_Null »

sailor

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #118 on: October 03, 2019, 11:37:06 PM »
OK, they are great as they are, especially the one showing wind density power, like how the ice pack responds to cold strong wind, as the recent refreeze at Beaufort.
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Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #119 on: October 04, 2019, 01:17:41 AM »
I'm seeing some shapes and transitions I didn't know could be physical, but (as Dave Barry says) I swear I'm not making this up. (Processing kept as minimal as possible) Continuity gives much more room for synchronicity to show itself, so the monthly review (September 2019 coming soon) will hopefully make more sense. The weather moves so gosh-darn fast, those doubletime post-it notes I cook up for the main thread can be a bit startling to the uninitiated. (I'm getting so I can read these blobs, even when they're not moving.)

Your support, sailor, is a first for me, in a way. Thanks much. I'm still tying off details of "pressure etc." production (the size of work-files involved is formidable). One idea that keeps haunting the back of my mind is that AAM that's been going around (wow! I just made a pun!) If the Atmospheric Angular Momentum is something distinct from the pace at which the Earth turns, I'm curious how it would look to graphically stabilize the atmosphere, let Greenland spin around instead. Probably silly.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2019, 01:31:25 AM by Aleph_Null »

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #120 on: October 04, 2019, 01:48:00 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
October 3 - 9

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #121 on: October 06, 2019, 02:18:02 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/1 to 10/6, Forecast: 10/6 to 10/9.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #122 on: October 07, 2019, 09:40:36 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
September 2019 review, with September 2018.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size versions]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #123 on: October 09, 2019, 12:12:04 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/4 to 10/9, Forecast: 10/9 to 10/12.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #124 on: October 12, 2019, 12:57:26 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/7 to 10/12, Forecast: 10/12 to 10/15.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #125 on: October 15, 2019, 01:45:51 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/10 to 10/15, Forecast: 10/15 to 10/18.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #126 on: October 18, 2019, 01:04:27 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/13 to 10/18, Forecast: 10/18 to 10/21.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #127 on: October 21, 2019, 12:37:13 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/16 to 10/21, Forecast: 10/21 to 10/24.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #128 on: October 24, 2019, 01:06:33 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/19 to 10/24, Forecast: 10/24 to 10/27.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #129 on: October 27, 2019, 12:21:24 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/22 to 10/27, Forecast: 10/27 to 10/30.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #130 on: October 30, 2019, 12:17:40 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/25 to 10/30, Forecast: 10/30 to 11/2.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #131 on: November 02, 2019, 11:31:01 AM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/28 to 11/2, Forecast: 11/2 to 11/5.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #132 on: November 05, 2019, 01:20:39 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/31 to 11/5, Forecast: 11/5 to 11/8.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #133 on: November 08, 2019, 12:31:10 AM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
October 2019 review, with synchronized comparison {2019, 2018, 2017, 2016}.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size versions]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #134 on: November 08, 2019, 01:03:48 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/3 to 11/8, Forecast: 11/8 to 11/11.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #135 on: November 11, 2019, 12:37:16 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/6 to 11/11, Forecast: 11/11 to 11/14.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

Aleph_Null

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Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #136 on: November 14, 2019, 12:30:00 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/9 to 11/14, Forecast: 11/14 to 11/17.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]