Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

Which forecasts do you prefer? (3 votes)

Wind @ Surface
4 (16.7%)
Wind + Temp @ Surface
10 (41.7%)
Wind + Temp @ 1000hPa
0 (0%)
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
4 (16.7%)
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
5 (20.8%)
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
0 (0%)
Another one which I'll write down below
1 (4.2%)
Wind @ Surface + 3-hour Precipitation Accumulation
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 13

Author Topic: Nullschool Forecasts  (Read 24951 times)

Aleph_Null

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 157
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 253
Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #150 on: December 23, 2019, 01:18:16 PM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/18 to 12/23, Forecast: 12/23 to 12/26.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]

Aleph_Null

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 157
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 253
Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #151 on: December 29, 2019, 02:31:50 AM »
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
probably discontinued


Sorry about that. Nullschool's WPD overlay went blank some days ago. If it comes back, the animation series can resume. I can't find an adequate substitute, so this might be it, for awhile.

I'm very grateful for the opportunity to share some visual inquiries here. Thanks, everyone!

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2373
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1142
  • Likes Given: 982
Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #152 on: December 29, 2019, 04:48:26 PM »
Lets hope it comes back. Have you asked them why it is blank now?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9104
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3597
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #153 on: December 29, 2019, 05:25:26 PM »
Lets hope it comes back. Have you asked them why it is blank now?

And "calling year 2020. Where are you?"
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Aleph_Null

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 157
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 253
Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #154 on: December 29, 2019, 05:35:24 PM »
Have you asked them why it is blank now?

For my part, I'm satisfied with waiting to see if WPD is dropped from the interface. Right now it's indistinguishable from the None overlay on my machine, and has been for at least a week. Whatever's going on over there, my inquiry would likely be more bothersome than helpful. (Plus: I don't have a contact there -- after all, I haven't paid them anything.) If there's any information available about this outage, I'd certainly be interested.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2019, 05:46:39 PM by Aleph_Null »

Aleph_Null

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 157
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 253
Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #155 on: January 01, 2020, 04:49:19 PM »
And "calling year 2020. Where are you?"

I've now welcomed the New Year in California, but 2020 has yet to show up on Nullschool's date menu. This gives me hope: maybe everyone's on break out there, and they'll restore WPD when they get back. (I can dream, can't I?)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9104
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3597
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #156 on: January 01, 2020, 10:58:57 PM »
And "calling year 2020. Where are you?"

I've now welcomed the New Year in California, but 2020 has yet to show up on Nullschool's date menu. This gives me hope: maybe everyone's on break out there, and they'll restore WPD when they get back. (I can dream, can't I?)
2020 is there but invisible. After opening Nullschol and choosing date,just ignore the year row and choose the days in January you want. It worked for me. (I checked by selecting 8th Jan, i.e. more than 5 days forward, and it responded - no data.)

I guess they, like me, are having some problems with the year change.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Aleph_Null

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 157
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 253
Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #157 on: January 17, 2020, 11:03:31 PM »
In this experiment, I want to observe sea-level pressure superimposed on wind at the 250hPa geopotential height (in which I take the bright red bands as an approximation to jet-stream winds) -- to watch the temporal relation. I like the Winkel projection for not losing roundness while showing the whole planetary surface, but it's not as good a view for things specifically Arctic.

The color-scheme of wind remains as captured from Nullschool. MSLP (mean sea-level pressure) was flattened into a grayscale image, so that wind colors stay legible, while low-pressure areas look like shadows. This is my first crack at a quarterly product, which I don't plan to share anywhere else besides this Nullschool Animations thread.

sea-level pressure with wind @ 250hPa
September, October, November 2019.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #158 on: May 07, 2020, 01:15:49 AM »
Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6191
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2252
  • Likes Given: 1889
Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #159 on: May 07, 2020, 03:14:03 AM »
Thank you FG for posting these periodically. I find them quite useful. And yes, Fram export does appear to be making a comeback

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Animations
« Reply #160 on: May 07, 2020, 03:33:41 AM »
Thank you FG for posting these periodically. I find them quite useful. And yes, Fram export does appear to be making a comeback
I was surprised to see the dipole break up this quickly. Previous forecasts had it last longer. Or wasn't this the big one yet? Time will tell... But a lot of the ice will still go down the drain this week!  >:( 

Thanks for the support and the kind words!  :D
« Last Edit: May 07, 2020, 03:42:36 AM by Freegrass »
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #161 on: May 09, 2020, 01:42:26 AM »
Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface

It looks like a large amount of ice will be exported out of the arctic in the coming week. Luckily that giant storm at the end will smash itself to dead quickly against Greenland.

This is what the temperature at the pole looks like on day 5 from now...  ???
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/13/1200Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,1723/loc=-00.000,90.000

I'll do temperature tomorrow.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2020, 01:51:27 AM by Freegrass »
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #162 on: May 11, 2020, 01:25:35 AM »
Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #163 on: May 12, 2020, 01:20:32 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface

I'm curious to see how much ice will pile up in the ESS with those anticyclonic winds.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2020, 01:44:16 PM by Freegrass »
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #164 on: May 18, 2020, 12:45:18 PM »
I'm going to make another forecast today, and I'm curious to see which one is preferred here. I always like the temp @ surface one, and the wind, but I've added this poll now to see what others like.

You can change your 3 votes at anytime to bring another preference to the top.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #165 on: May 19, 2020, 01:50:57 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Glen Koehler

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 334
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 329
  • Likes Given: 732
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #166 on: May 19, 2020, 05:57:26 PM »
   For the Kara Sea, in addition to warm surface temperatures in the current GFS forecast (which are easier to see in Climate Renanalyzer), it seems like the winds (which are easier to see in Nullschool) will also contribute to ice losses over the next 5 days.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #167 on: May 20, 2020, 01:50:56 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #168 on: May 20, 2020, 02:00:10 PM »
   For the Kara Sea, in addition to warm surface temperatures in the current GFS forecast (which are easier to see in Climate Renanalyzer), it seems like the winds (which are easier to see in Nullschool) will also contribute to ice losses over the next 5 days.
Hi Glen. I don't think the wind in the Kara will be a very big problem. They seem to pass very quickly, so the impact should be minimal.

Edit: Temperatures in the Kara will be a problem of course. Combined with the wind, the Kara will suffer.

What I'll be watching for is if the ice pack will spread out again with that low centered over the CAB. The High from last week compacted the ice, and I don't think it all froze together much yet. That could mean that extent will increase again over the coming days.

It's interesting to see the ESS fill up again as I predicted. Of course that means more open water in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas.

Edit 2: Will that high on top of the Beaufort start up the Beaufort gyre? Or is that too early still?
« Last Edit: May 20, 2020, 03:21:02 PM by Freegrass »
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #169 on: May 21, 2020, 04:28:47 AM »
WTF happened? Is modeling software fucking up because they're unable to adjust for particle reduction due to the crisis?

Is shit getting worse then models could predict? Or am I just too drunk?
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 04:37:51 AM by Freegrass »
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Glen Koehler

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 334
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 329
  • Likes Given: 732
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #170 on: May 21, 2020, 03:14:14 PM »
      FG  and others - when you comment on a benign or threatening forecast, please specify what it is you are referring to.  Otherwise, I may not be able to see what you are seeing, and I suspect neither do a lot of other people.  Sorry to nag, but this has happened a lot lately by various posters - noting something extreme or of supposed importance without specifying what it is. 
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 08:05:08 PM by Glen Koehler »

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6191
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2252
  • Likes Given: 1889
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #171 on: May 24, 2020, 02:42:58 PM »
I sympathize Glen. I've learned over the years to recognize some of the hinted phenomena, but I still often find myself cluelessly scratching my head while someone goes gaga about a forecast.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 11:33:43 PM by oren »

HapHazard

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 355
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2631
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #172 on: May 24, 2020, 09:33:48 PM »
I sympathize Glen. I've learned over the years to recognize some of the hinted phenomena, but I still often mind myself cluelessly scratching my head while someone goes gaga about a forecast.

Same boat here. I get some of it, but other times I don't know what the heck a poster is on about.

It's like having a nice conversation with someone then out of nowhere they throw in a few sentences using an alien language, then revert back like no big deal.  ??? ???

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #173 on: May 26, 2020, 01:57:31 PM »
Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Ice Shieldz

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 249
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 59
  • Likes Given: 57
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #174 on: May 26, 2020, 10:36:12 PM »
Hey Freegrass  - thanks for your excellent animations. This has probably been discussed before, but is there anyway you can include the surface temps with the winds? Seems more important now for late spring and summer. 🌞

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #175 on: May 27, 2020, 01:55:37 AM »

Hi Ice. Thank you for the kind words! I usually post the Wind + Temp @ Surface videos on the melting thread, because as you said, they are the most valuable right now.

You can find the latest one from Monday here.

It's probably a good idea that I will link to them here in the future. Thanks for bringing that to my attention!
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #176 on: May 27, 2020, 01:36:34 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #177 on: May 27, 2020, 02:13:37 PM »
      FG  and others - when you comment on a benign or threatening forecast, please specify what it is you are referring to.  Otherwise, I may not be able to see what you are seeing, and I suspect neither do a lot of other people.  Sorry to nag, but this has happened a lot lately by various posters - noting something extreme or of supposed importance without specifying what it is.
The problem is that I'm starting to understand the impact of the weather on the ice, but I don't have the skills to explain it all in a proper scientific way. My brain works completely different... I can see it and understand it, but I can't explain it...

I'm always hoping I can find someone who could...
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Glen Koehler

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 334
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 329
  • Likes Given: 732
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #178 on: May 28, 2020, 05:32:25 AM »
       FG - I'm not asking for a seminar, or an explanation of the reasoning for your alarm, just the name of the thing that grabbed your attention.  Is it the wind?  The temperature?  Particular locations? Precipitable water?  Is it a strong low-pressure system near the Bering Strait?  Or high pressure dominating the CAB?

       Since the image clips don't show the scale legend to allow interpreting what the colors mean, and since most of us won't bother to go over to NullSchool to find the legend bar, the colors in the images are intriguing but not quantitatively informative.  If you are referring to temperature in a certain region, use your text message to tell us how high they are such that they grabbed your eye.

       If you just say "Oh My God!" with no text to identify what it is you are referring too, and post an image without a legend, it may not be clear to us what has your attention or what the image is representing. 

       Yes, we can watch the clip and get some sense of it, especially if we are used to NullSchool images.  So it's not that the images are useless without some explanation and a legend.  But if you are going to the trouble to make a clip, why not gift wrap it just a little bit to make it more meaningful? 

       When this is all in the history books, and your great grandchildren are looking back at what their 'Oompah' did during the great meltdown of 202?, make them proud.  Until then, thanks for your efforts.  I enjoy the freshness of your wonder and curiosity, and have learned from your queries.  Like you, I am a non-expert tuning into this drama, and just trying to figure out what's going on.  Even though it is a horror show when you consider the larger implications, it is a fascinating process to watch.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2020, 05:39:08 AM by Glen Koehler »

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #179 on: May 30, 2020, 02:15:21 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface

It looks like fram export will be back in a few days from now.
Curious to see if that wind in the Nares strait will move the ice in the Lincoln sea.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #180 on: June 11, 2020, 01:09:12 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
« Last Edit: June 11, 2020, 01:15:37 AM by Freegrass »
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #181 on: June 11, 2020, 02:58:28 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

There is one frame near the end that remains erroneous today. Usually it corrects itself after a while on Nullschool, but not today. The good thing is that you can compare two forecasts now. Enjoy!
« Last Edit: June 11, 2020, 05:09:50 PM by Freegrass »
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #182 on: June 12, 2020, 02:07:36 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ Surface
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #183 on: June 12, 2020, 09:54:31 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + 3-hour Precipitation Accumulation
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #184 on: June 14, 2020, 02:25:24 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #185 on: June 15, 2020, 01:53:01 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #186 on: June 15, 2020, 03:43:35 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ Surface

That storm is sucking in a lot of cold air that is making it weaker. But it seems like that cold air is being cut off a little in the latest forecast. If that cold air gets cut off more, that storm could get a lot bigger and stronger very quickly. So it'll be interesting the follow how this develops over the next few days.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #187 on: June 15, 2020, 07:26:36 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

I find it interesting to keep following the forecast of this storm more closely for a while. It looks like it's getting more cold air now, just 6 hours later. These subtle changes make a big difference in the forecast of this storm.


To be continued...
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #188 on: June 16, 2020, 01:49:03 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Next in the series. That pulse of cold air has now disorganized that storm and blown past it. I'm sure some of you will be more qualified to interpret all this, so I hope you like this little experiment.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #189 on: June 16, 2020, 11:08:42 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #190 on: June 16, 2020, 01:42:16 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

This shit just went bad... It's the first time this cold air gets exposed to real world temperatures on land, and it doesn't seem to look as cold anymore now. Is this prove of my theory, that the models are underestimating the weather the impact of the sun due to particle reduction? And does this mean that this storm could even get stronger as that cold air heats up even more?

Or am I seeing it all wrong? I know I lack the knowledge to understand all this. So help me out here guys!
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #191 on: June 16, 2020, 03:33:06 PM »
The storm is actually getting stronger because it's getting hot moist air from along the CAA coast. This air came all the way from Siberia, and spun around the storm.

Edit 1:It's getting a push from that cold air on the siberian side, and then feeds on the hot air from the CAA side.

Edit 2: And it looks like it'll find some more food on the pacific side soon. That could make this a monster...

I don't know about you guys, and maybe it's my ignorance, but I find this fascinating.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2020, 03:40:03 PM by Freegrass »
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #192 on: June 16, 2020, 07:19:37 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Cold air is entering the center of the storm again, making it weaker...
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #193 on: June 17, 2020, 02:55:54 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #194 on: June 17, 2020, 07:34:05 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Oh my... The trend seems to be towards a stronger storm. Winds above 50 km/h are now in the forecast. That'll do some damage...
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6191
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2252
  • Likes Given: 1889
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #195 on: June 17, 2020, 09:12:49 AM »
I assume the extensive moisture also means clouds, which could come in handy at this time of year, especially if the storm lingers.
BTW could you also post a wind+temps forecast?

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1379
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 597
  • Likes Given: 454
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #196 on: June 17, 2020, 11:34:11 AM »
Oh my .. machine gun .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #197 on: June 17, 2020, 02:00:23 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ Surface

That's right Oren, the sun will be blocked by this storm. And as you can see on the temp forecast, the temperatures on the ice will be going down. Now we just wait to see how much physical damage this storm will do to the ice. 50 km/h winds usually will do that, but it looks like the wind won't be to persistent over the same area.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #198 on: June 17, 2020, 04:26:24 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1556
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #199 on: June 17, 2020, 09:32:44 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

A little change again in the forecast that could have big consequences. The wind speed has gone down just a little below 50 km/h, but at the end of the forecast this storm seems to find some more food again on the Alaskan side. Curious to see how this develops in the next few forecasts.


To be continued...
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Did you know that Jesus was thought to be the reincarnation of a Buddhist monk?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
They came from the east! ;)