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Which forecasts do you prefer? (3 votes)

Wind @ Surface
4 (16.7%)
Wind + Temp @ Surface
10 (41.7%)
Wind + Temp @ 1000hPa
0 (0%)
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
4 (16.7%)
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
5 (20.8%)
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
0 (0%)
Another one which I'll write down below
1 (4.2%)
Wind @ Surface + 3-hour Precipitation Accumulation
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 13

Author Topic: Nullschool Forecasts  (Read 25707 times)

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #200 on: June 18, 2020, 01:36:15 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Well, it's happening. This storm has a new feeding ground on the pacific side and ends up in this forecast with food on both sides. If this pattern holds, I can see a lot of destruction to the ice. Winds will be persistent over the same piece of ocean. If they get any stronger, this storm will turn out to be a disaster for the ice. But again, this is a layman's opinion...

It also seems as if I was right that this cold air has gotten warmer than the models initially predicted. But I have no idea how to quantify this. It is just my perception.


To be continued...

PS: can we start calling this storm the 2020 GAC? Or is it still to small for that?
Edit: I just checked the long term forecast, and that's not looking good...
« Last Edit: June 18, 2020, 01:47:21 AM by Freegrass »
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #201 on: June 18, 2020, 07:41:33 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #202 on: June 18, 2020, 01:45:14 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

It looks like a little more cold air has reached the core of this storm again, weakening it, and cutting it off from new food on the pacific side. The long term forecast now doesn't show that big storm anymore. Instead we get high pressure.


To be continued...

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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #203 on: June 18, 2020, 07:53:34 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

On the forecast from 18 hours ago you can clearly see a small curl over the Chukchi sea that was going to add a new pulse of energy to this storm. But that little disturbance is now gone, cut off by a pulse of cold air, effectively killing this storm... RIP JAC! Maybe...
« Last Edit: June 18, 2020, 07:58:44 PM by Freegrass »
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #204 on: June 18, 2020, 09:44:28 PM »
Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface

I've added a picture of the area where the strongest winds will occur (with this forecast). The image is from June 11, the first cloudless day I could find. The area is a little north of the Chukchi sea. I'm curious to see how much these cracks will open up due to this storm. But overall the ice is pretty solid there, so we may be dodging another bullet if this forecast holds. But experience tells me this storm can still strengthen again.


To be continued...
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #205 on: June 19, 2020, 02:00:03 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

This storm became a little stronger again, but seems to be fading out near the end due to a lack of food... There's still so much hot and moist air around this storm though to reignite it, so I'm not giving up on this little storm just yet! A little shift can make a big difference...


To be continued...
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #206 on: June 19, 2020, 07:15:26 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Big change. The storm has connected again with that little disturbance on the pacific side and thus found some more food to keep going in the opposite direction towards the CAA now. Can't wait to see the next forecast. This isn't over yet!
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #207 on: June 19, 2020, 01:51:13 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ Surface

Pinball JAC is back! This storm keeps bouncing off the coasts where it finds a lot of new food to feed on. On the long term forecast things are turning bad again, and so now I have to keep doing this for another 10 days? Damn you JAC!  ::)

There's a lot of energy available on the Atlantic side now. Once it starts feeding there, this could become a monster...


To be continued for sure...
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #208 on: June 19, 2020, 07:26:31 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Some cold air has come in between the handshake of these 2 low pressure systems, effectively weakening the storm before it can find some more food coming in from the Fram. This is yet another interesting development to follow, so...


To be continued...
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #209 on: June 20, 2020, 02:16:23 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

I guess that's the end of JAC Daniel's... But plenty of energy left to rebuild a new one.
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #210 on: June 20, 2020, 06:44:52 AM »
Thanks FG, this thread is fun to watch.

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #211 on: June 20, 2020, 07:35:12 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

You're welcome HapHazard. I'm glad you're enjoying it. :)
It's been real fun watching this storm that is starting to live up to the name that I gave it.

JD is behaving like a waggling drunk right now who hasn't got a clue where to go next. Am I going, am I staying, or shall I have another drink with my new found buddy that is keeping me upright? He really doesn't have a clue...


So to be continued...
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #212 on: June 20, 2020, 03:01:38 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

This storm is strengthening again. There's way to much heat around, now on the Atlantic side. The Pacific side has cooled significantly. But I guess that's only temporarily...
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #213 on: June 20, 2020, 07:51:27 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Cold air entering the storm and moving out on the long term forecast.
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #214 on: June 21, 2020, 01:32:04 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

JD is finding more food again. It's like there's too much energy available all around it, effectively trapping it in the Arctic.

I guess Pinball JAC wasn't a bad name for it after all...  :-\
« Last Edit: June 21, 2020, 03:08:56 AM by Freegrass »
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #215 on: June 21, 2020, 09:31:23 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #216 on: June 21, 2020, 02:06:42 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ Surface

It seems like there's too much cold air entering the system that is weakening the storm. This cold air can't rise anymore, so it's dropping, creating a high near the CAA that is pushing the storm away.

Or am I completely wrong about that? Isn't that how it works?
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #217 on: June 21, 2020, 08:18:55 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Is anyone else still interested in what I'm doing here? If not, I'm gonna end these 6 hour updates. The storm is ending anyway, so... THE END!
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #218 on: June 21, 2020, 08:49:28 PM »
I like the gifs Freegrass. I am one of the 9 of 18 respondents who prefers the wind + temp option.

Keep in mind that the forecasts are not 100% reliable. If GFS is indicating a likelihood that JAC Daniels will run out of gas in 5 days, it may still last longer.

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #219 on: June 21, 2020, 08:57:42 PM »
I'm not gonna stop making these forecasts. I'm just gonna stop making these 6 hour updates on JD. It was just an experiment, and it's time to end it. I learned a lot from it. Hope others did too.
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #220 on: June 21, 2020, 11:16:29 PM »
I watch every animation but yeah, 6 hour updates seems like a lot of work, and the model seems to be quite indecisive 5 days out.

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #221 on: June 22, 2020, 12:04:19 AM »
That's true Oren, the model does change a lot, but it's from those little changes that I learned a lot. Maybe I drew the wrong conclusions sometimes, but I found it fascinating to watch how the forecast could radically change because of minor delicate interactions. That's why it's damn impressive what these weather models are capable of doing these days.


But it's also clear now that they still have a lot of work to do...
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Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #222 on: June 22, 2020, 01:30:41 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

I'll try to keep making them every 12 hours. Halve the work, and I'm watching MSNBC on my computer around that time anyway. So hope you like it.
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #223 on: June 22, 2020, 01:39:18 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #224 on: June 23, 2020, 01:26:10 AM »
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Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #225 on: June 23, 2020, 02:23:21 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ Surface
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #226 on: June 24, 2020, 02:13:00 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Things are heating up again over the arctic ocean, and the Bering Strait is gonna get it's pipes cleaned it seems. I think this will bring in a lot of hot water from the Bering Sea, while the Chukchi gets a good stir.

Boy is this fun to do now with my new computer. It takes a fraction of the time now to make these graphics. :D
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #227 on: June 24, 2020, 01:44:10 PM »
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Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #228 on: June 24, 2020, 02:35:44 PM »
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #229 on: June 24, 2020, 03:25:51 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #230 on: June 24, 2020, 03:30:00 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Nice.

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #231 on: June 24, 2020, 03:42:49 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Nice.
It only takes me a few minutes to make these now, while before it took me forever on that old laptop. So this is fun now. :)

I'll make one with rain now. Big storms are showing up as well.
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #232 on: June 24, 2020, 03:51:35 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + 3-hour Precipitation Accumulation

The ESS is gonna get a lot of rain this week.
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #233 on: June 24, 2020, 08:40:11 PM »
I find the wind+temps really useful for gauging expected effects on sea ice, and the new clouds thing is also very interesting during peak insolation.

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #234 on: June 24, 2020, 08:57:51 PM »
I find the wind+temps really useful for gauging expected effects on sea ice, and the new clouds thing is also very interesting during peak insolation.
I really love the Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water. But you might have guessed that by now...   :-\
There's so much you can see on that IMIO (In My Ignorant Opinion). Blue is bad... Brown is good... Where else do you see that in our society? I know Hitler would have hated that...   ::)

I'm on whisky and weed right now...
Happy mood... ;)
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #235 on: June 25, 2020, 01:37:10 AM »
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Wind + Temp @ Surface
Should do a number on the Chukchi.
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #236 on: June 25, 2020, 02:10:10 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

It looks like the arctic wants to get "high"...
Goodbye JAC!  :'(
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #237 on: June 25, 2020, 03:49:14 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ Surface
« Last Edit: June 25, 2020, 04:05:05 PM by Freegrass »
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #238 on: June 26, 2020, 03:40:10 AM »
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #239 on: June 26, 2020, 01:40:30 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #240 on: June 27, 2020, 02:04:09 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

Sunny and hot with clear skies.
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #241 on: June 28, 2020, 01:53:40 AM »
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Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #242 on: June 28, 2020, 09:36:10 PM »
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Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #243 on: June 28, 2020, 09:51:29 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Wind @ Surface + 3-hour Precipitation Accumulation
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #244 on: July 01, 2020, 08:26:27 PM »
FG, are you ok? I got hooked on your posts here.

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #245 on: July 02, 2020, 01:19:34 AM »
FG, are you ok? I got hooked on your posts here.
I'm going through some very bad days again right now. The anger is gone now, and sadness has taken over again...  :'(  Depression is a bitch...  :'(

I just posted a temp Gif on the melting thread though. Here it is.
One frame didn't update yet on Nullschool. That's the error you see at the end.
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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #246 on: July 06, 2020, 09:05:17 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

It's time to start making these again, because something is brewing on the Atlantic side. Just look at all that energy that's present in the arctic. This has to explode into something big.

Let's hope I'm wrong about this, but the long term forecast seems to agree, even though it's not reliable at all. But something has to give with all that food around, so let's keep an eye on this new possible monster...

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #247 on: July 17, 2020, 07:30:54 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

11 days ago some storms started appearing in the forecasts, but none ever materialized over the CAB.

It seems highly likely that this will change in the coming days. The boring - yet destructive - weather pattern is finally over. Let's see what this low can do. So far it seems it doesn't want to eat the available food. Let's see if that changes with that second storm.

Sorry about the 2 errors. Nullschool is slow in updating again it seems. I made this twice already and the error remains. So I'll make another one later in the day without errors hopefully.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #248 on: July 18, 2020, 02:01:15 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

WTF is wrong with Nullschool lately? 2 hours after the weather update it's still showing errors.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Freegrass

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Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« Reply #249 on: July 18, 2020, 01:00:20 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama