Once again I attach a table and graph of the 365 day trailing average (JAXA extent data)
The average continues to decline - hesitantly as daily extent was sometimes below and sometimes above the 2020 daily extent. At 9.656 million km2 the 365 day trailing average is now just over 27k less than the previous minimum of August 2017.
If daily extent change from now is at the 10 average, the 365 day average will decline erratically to a low of 9.647 million on the 19th March and then increase strongly, simply because 2020 saw a very strong melting season, starting immediately after the maximum in mid-March. See the plume graph.
For the 365 day trailing average to decline further requires the 2021 melting season to do a Usain Bolt from the starting blocks and tend to above average melting for the melting sason. But who knows what the reality of the 2021 melting season will be? Not me.
Click image to enlarge