Happy New Year 2024 (and sorry for the forum being offline some hours) /DM
Total Members Voted: 14
Voting closed: September 26, 2019, 11:37:24 AM
A 2020 record low 365 day minimum still in play.A small milestone just passed. In late 2019 the progress towards a record low petered out on the 6th December at a 365 day average of 9.751 million km2. The 4/10/2020 365 day average is just below 3.750 million km2.
Quote from: gerontocrat on October 05, 2020, 01:07:54 PMA 2020 record low 365 day minimum still in play.A small milestone just passed. In late 2019 the progress towards a record low petered out on the 6th December at a 365 day average of 9.751 million km2. The 4/10/2020 365 day average is just below 3.750 million km2.I think you mean 9.750?
A sine wave might be a smarter fit for the data (and then someone will need to figure out what the decadal influence is ...). That polynomial certainly shows why extrapolating can be dangerous!
thank you for all this data GerontocratAre there any 365-day volume survey charts (month by month certainly)? I don't seem to have seen any on the forumthank you
Quote from: Positive retroaction on November 01, 2020, 09:01:59 PMthank you for all this data GerontocratAre there any 365-day volume survey charts (month by month certainly)? I don't seem to have seen any on the forumthank youYou will see something on 365 day averages on this thread when we have the October PIOMAS data.
JAXA Extent DataIf 2020 daily extent gains do not substantially reduce in the next few days 2020 sea ice extent will become greater than 2019. At that time the 365 day trailing average would start to increase.
2019 underperforms for the next 10 days, so it will be tough.
Quote from: oren on November 22, 2020, 12:12:47 PM2019 underperforms for the next 10 days, so it will be tough.JAXA Arctic sea ice extent data,,,,but happened, and is likely to continue happening - see Oren's postI attach latest table and graphs. - 2020 extent now only 147k less than 2019,-10k to go for a new record low 365 day trailing average, which at the current rate of daily reduction happens on the 20th of December.....but could easily be delayed indefinitely.
Not long now, surely.
Is the next poll how long it stays at record low levels?
It look's like today's the day the graph ventures into new unmarked space.
So this measure may be a bit niche for anyone to be issuing a press release... But does it seem likely at year's end that someone will publicise 2020 having the lowest annual average extent on record of, as seems likely, it's still number one on December 31st?
Quote from: Paddy on December 15, 2020, 06:16:48 AMSo this measure may be a bit niche for anyone to be issuing a press release... But does it seem likely at year's end that someone will publicise 2020 having the lowest annual average extent on record of, as seems likely, it's still number one on December 31st?The odds are that it will still be lowest at Dec 31. It means that 2020 is the year with the lowest sea ice extent. In my mind it is more significant than (say) the record low Sept minimum of 2012 because we are talking about sustained periods of record low sea ice and record high open water.But the annual minima is the one that get the headlines.