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When will we next see a new lowest 365 day trailing average extent?

2019
0 (0%)
Within the first three months of 2020
10 (62.5%)
Within months 4 to 6 of 2020
2 (12.5%)
Later in 2020
2 (12.5%)
2021
0 (0%)
2022 or later
2 (12.5%)

Total Members Voted: 14

Voting closed: September 26, 2019, 11:37:24 AM

Author Topic: 365 day average extent poll  (Read 6267 times)

gerontocrat

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Re: 365 day average extent poll
« Reply #50 on: October 02, 2020, 01:02:49 PM »
But now daily extent gains have trended well below average so a 2020 record low is in play again.

On the other hand 2019 extent gains are also about to slow substantially, which led to a record low October monthly average last year. But from late October 2019 extent gains accelerated.

Graphs & table attached.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2020, 04:51:09 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 365 day average extent poll
« Reply #51 on: October 05, 2020, 01:07:54 PM »
A 2020 record low 365 day minimum still in play.

A small milestone just passed. In late 2019 the progress towards a record low petered out on the 6th December at a 365 day average of 9.751 million km2. The 4/10/2020 365 day average is just  below 9.750 million km2.

« Last Edit: October 05, 2020, 10:59:40 PM by gerontocrat »
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Paddy

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Re: 365 day average extent poll
« Reply #52 on: October 05, 2020, 09:10:11 PM »
A 2020 record low 365 day minimum still in play.

A small milestone just passed. In late 2019 the progress towards a record low petered out on the 6th December at a 365 day average of 9.751 million km2. The 4/10/2020 365 day average is just  below 3.750 million km2.

I think you mean 9.750?

gerontocrat

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Re: 365 day average extent poll
« Reply #53 on: October 05, 2020, 11:00:04 PM »
A 2020 record low 365 day minimum still in play.

A small milestone just passed. In late 2019 the progress towards a record low petered out on the 6th December at a 365 day average of 9.751 million km2. The 4/10/2020 365 day average is just  below 3.750 million km2.

I think you mean 9.750?
bummer
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gerontocrat

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Re: 365 day average extent poll
« Reply #54 on: October 16, 2020, 11:44:53 AM »
From the 4th to the 14th October 2020 daily extent gains were mostly above 2019 extent gains. The possibility of a 2020 record low 365 day average seemed to slip away.

On the 15th, a very low daily 2020 extent gain reversed the trend. But will it continue enough to bring a 2020 record low into play? It all depends on whether 2020 follows 2012 and 2019 in an October rebound in arctic sea ice extent, or follows 2016, which did not.
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Paddy

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Re: 365 day average extent poll
« Reply #55 on: October 18, 2020, 04:15:40 PM »
With high temps forecast for the ten days ahead, I expect the gap with 2019 can only widen in the immediate future. A new minimum this year looks ever more likely.

gerontocrat

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Re: 365 day average extent poll
« Reply #56 on: October 18, 2020, 06:49:09 PM »
Getting to be very interesting again...

click an image to make it bigger
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oren

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Re: 365 day average extent poll
« Reply #57 on: October 18, 2020, 07:14:01 PM »
Thanks for these updates Gero.
Looking at the long term chart it is quite obvious that Arctic sea ice has not been stable since 2012 (or 2007) as some people think.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 11:18:06 AM by oren »

gerontocrat

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Re: 365 day average extent poll
« Reply #58 on: October 19, 2020, 10:32:11 AM »
Back on track for a 365 day trailing average record low in December 2020.

but......
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gerontocrat

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Re: 365 day average extent poll
« Reply #59 on: October 21, 2020, 10:39:13 AM »
Confidence in a record low 365 day trailing average in 2020 increases day by day.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 365 day average extent poll
« Reply #60 on: October 23, 2020, 01:12:58 PM »
The 365 day trailing average continues to reduce at an accelerating rate. Given that 2019 daily extent gains are about to rocket upwards, this continue for at least a few days more. A reminder - it is the amount by which 2020 extent is lower than 2019 that determines the rate by which this average reduces.

A record low 365 day average in November is now a possibility, though perhaps not a probability.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)