Tropical cyclone, Hurricane Season 2023

[gerontocrat]

Among the factors hobbling accurate intensity forecasts of Otis on Tuesday: There was only one flight by the Hurricane Hunters (with just two penetrations) into Otis, and there was no Doppler weather radar available, either ground-based or from reconnaissance flights. Moreover, in the days leading up to Otis, forecast models struggled to determine whether Otis would make landfall at all. Some of the leading models kept Otis offshore for days, which matches typical hurricane behavior in this region much more closely than what actually happened.

It seems that the Hurricane Hunters (propellor-driven) are somewhat ancient & coming to the end of their life. BUT, the trouble is, I read recently that it seems that propellor-driven planes can fly into hurricane weather conditions where jet aircraft just cannot go.

The Hurricane Hunters and the instruments on board can still get better data on what is happening inside a hurricane than from satellites and radar, and there is a shortage of local radar stations in many places vulnerable to hurricanes.

It may well also be that the Hurricane Hunter pilots are a special breed, not just from training and experience in frightful weather but also with that extra something.

[vox_mundi]

Into the Eye of a Hurricane: How NOAA Uses Drones to Penetrate Monster Storms
https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2023/08/23/noaa-hurricane-hunters-drone-technology/70373262007/

Infographics ^^

https://www.noaa.gov/stories/drones-hunt-hurricanes-noaa-puts-some-to-test

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/altius-drone-flies-hurricane-ian/

New NOAA program to support and expand agency’s use of unmanned systems

https://nrc.noaa.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=0I2p2-Gu3rA%3d&tabid=91&portalid=0

[Renerpho]

The UK or western Europe may see some very nasty weather next week, with the possibility of hurricane force winds over France or the UK (forecasts vary on location and strength) around November 2nd.

You can find images for forecasts and analysis in the original posts linked below.

This is getting serious. Global models are starting to converge on a powerful hurricane-force bomb cyclone impacting parts of western Europe mid next week. Details will certainly change but definitely one to watch.

And a thread about it (posted earlier today):

(1/) The Embryonic Low which will highly likely become the next name storm is now developing along a developing frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley. This Low will move East across the Atlantic where it will come under the influence of the powerful 160-170Knt (nr 200mph) Jet

(2/) The low is set to deepen rapidly as it crosses the Atlantic, though there remains some uncertainty in the models with respect to when the most explosive phase of deepening will occur & how near this is to the UK. The 00Z Suite of models have backed off (thankfully) a little

(3/) from the very concerning extreme solutions seen on Saturday evening. However there is still cause for serious concern with where this low tracks. There is 100-200m Spread in some of the solutions, which if the low is passing NW of the UK doesn't make that much difference

(4/) but when a low is passing from the Celtic SEa across Wales, Midlands & Lincs that makes a BIG difference to the zone of stronger winds. The ECMWF & its ensemble are quite clear this morning on a track towards the Southern Celtic Sea across S Wales/Bristol Channel exiting

(5/) over lincs. Whilst other models have slightly different tracks the overall evolution & expected track are similar. The Ensemble indicates near 100% of Ensemble runs have >60Knt winds near west Cornwall & the risk of damaging winds through the Channel with nearly all models

(6/) having 80-90mph gusts for the Channel Islands, What we have less certainty on is the strength & inland penetration of the strong winds across London & the SE of England. Here there is much less model agreement on the shape of the low. Because of the high population

(7/) here I am not going to speculate further until we have better model agreement, but at this point we can be increasingly confident of a major windstorm moving across the UK on Weds Night through Thursday with Damaging Wind & Gust potential anywhere over Southern/SE England

(8/) & the Channel Islands & anyone here should pay careful attention to future forecasts.

[KiwiGriff]

We seem to have missed cyclone lola down here in the  southwest pacific .
Short lived and well out of season she  struck Vanatu as a category 4 storm on October 25.
The remnants are presently hovering over northland nz causing yet another round of slips flooding  and power outages.
No work for me today no power .Smug feeling when I turned up for the day unaware of the outage as I live off grid. First I knew of the power cut was the candles in the office.

 

[gerontocrat]

We seem to have missed cyclone lola down here in the  southwest pacific .
Short lived and well out of season she  struck Vanatu as a category 4 storm on October 25.
The remnants are presently hovering over northland nz causing yet another round of slips flooding  and power outages.
No work for me today no power .Smug feeling when I turned up for the day unaware of the outage as I live off grid. First I knew of the power cut was the candles in the office.

KiwiGriff,
In China there is a push for public buildings and businesses to get solar power. Time for your office to get with the programme?

Meanwhile...
Vanuatu is getting for than its fair share of cyclones.

https://www.ifrc.org/press-release/cyclone-lola-leaves-trail-destruction-northern-vanuatu-warning-cyclone-season
Cyclone Lola leaves trail of destruction in Northern Vanuatu, warning for cyclone season
Port Vila/Kuala Lumpur/Geneva, 26 October 2023 – Thousands of people have been greatly affected by the recent Category 5 Cyclone Lola in Vanuatu. Making landfall on 26 October 2023, the cyclone has left a path of destruction with damage to houses, schools, infrastructure, plantations, and roads – making some of the most affected communities currently inaccessible to outside assistance. The devastation left by the cyclone is immense, especially in the northern provinces of the country. Connectivity to these provinces – where the cyclone’s most destructive winds were felt at Category 5 - remains down.

Lola - the third cyclone for the country in seven months, has meant that communities only just beginning to recover from the twin cyclones, Judy and Kevin, are now reeling in the wake of their compounded impact.

Vanuatu Red Cross Society Secretary General, Dickinson Tevi, said:

"From the information we have gathered, we believe some communities have suffered more damage than from Cyclone Harold in 2020, which was also a Category 5. The only difference is that Lola was very slow-moving - which meant more destruction in some places.

Our Red Cross volunteers are part of these communities and are already in action. An initial rapid assessment in Torba, for example, came within hours of the cyclone passing yesterday. We are ready to be mobilized into other communities once we can gain access.

Our priority right now is to reach the worst affected areas with immediate relief items. Some of the reports coming back highlight the immediate need for temporary shelter. Some families have lost everything."

One of our greatest concerns, however, is that Cyclone Lola, an out-of-season Category 5 nightmare for the communities of Northern Vanuatu – has just sent an 'Early Warning' shot for this cyclone season to the country and its neighbours in the Blue Pacific. This season will likely have an above-average number of severe tropical cyclones (between 5 to 7) due to the heightened ferocity that can come with a forecasted 'strong' El Nino event. We are all on notice to prepare for what may lie ahead."

[gerontocrat]

GFS has two storms concentrating their wrath on the UK & France, on Nov2 & Nov4

Both come up the English Channel and then turn more northwards into the North Sea.

[Richard Rathbone]

There's  some discussion of  Ciaran in Eye on the Storm, plus Pilar and a possible Vince.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/10/late-week-western-caribbean-disturbance-may-develop/

An unusually powerful Atlantic storm will pass just south of Ireland on Wednesday and is expected to blast the UK and France with destructive winds on Thursday, November 2. This storm, named Ciarán by the UK Met Office, is predicted to have one of the lowest pressures ever observed in the UK in November.

  948.4 hPa is the record low and its expected to be there or  thereabouts.

Pilar is forecast to approach Central America but do an about turn before landfall. Potentially close  enough to drop a lot of rain in the same place while its doing its turn.

Tropical-storm-force winds only extend about 70 miles from Pilar, and that radius is not expected to change dramatically, so Central America is unlikely to experience major wind damage from Pilar. However, as the circulation expands over time, persistent heavy rain bands pivoting around Pilar could push well inland, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday, exacerbated by upslope flow into rugged terrain. The heaviest rains — locally five to 10 inches, with higher amounts possible, perhaps triggering flash floods and mudslides — will most likely be in the onshore flow near and just east of Pilar’s center, along the coastlines and the Pacific-facing slopes of eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and western Nicaragua.

This sort of setup for Vince isn't unusual at this time of year in Nina seasons, but it is for Nino. Fairly typical for 2023, high SST has trumped extra  shear from Nino so far.

The most recent set of model runs predicted that a ridge of high pressure to the north of the Caribbean would keep anything that develops on a mostly westward trajectory, giving Nicaragua and surrounding portions of Central America the potential to see a landfalling system from the Caribbean on Friday or Saturday. By early next week, a trough of low pressure passing to the north might be capable of pulling a potential Caribbean system northward into the Gulf of Mexico or Cuba, though this has looked increasingly unlikely in recent model runs. In their 8 a.m. EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave a future western Caribbean disturbance two-day and seven-day odds of development of 10% and 50%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Vince.

Otis destruction update.

The death toll from the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Otis in Mexico has risen to 48 with six missing, according to the latest statement from the Mexican government on Sunday. Otis made landfall in Acapulco on Wednesday, October 25, as a Category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds, making it the strongest Pacific hurricane on record to hit Mexico. Satellite mapping (see Tweet below) has revealed that damage from Otis was heaviest in the high-elevation areas at the edges of the city, where high winds and landslides from heavy rains falling on the steep slopes combined to cause massive destruction. Few portions of the city escaped damage.

[Renerpho]

Southern England and Northern France may see conditions never witnessed before.

948.4 hPa is the record low and its expected to be there or thereabouts.

The forecast below is for 948 hPa. Wind will be the biggest issue over southern England and northern France, with gusts up to 178 kmh (110 mph), and 10m sustained winds up to 135 kmh (84 mph), equivalent to a category 1 hurricane. Heavy rain may also hit Ireland, Wales, and the Iberian Peninsula.

I think that would make it the first hurricane over the British Isles since Debbie hit Ireland in 1961; and the first to make landfall over the southern UK since... uhm...?

[Richard Rathbone]

I think that would make it the first hurricane over the British Isles since Debbie hit Ireland in 1961; and the first to make landfall over the southern UK since... uhm...?

Except its not tropical and not a hurricane. Hurricane force storms are nowhere near as rare as hurricanes in the UK. So far its only the November pressure record thats under threat, not wind records. Its big, so it has to be deeper for the same wind maximum than a smaller storm.