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Author Topic: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences  (Read 38634 times)

sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #800 on: August 03, 2020, 06:28:39 AM »
Re: Reopening schools

https://jamanetwork.com/channels/health-forum/fullarticle/2767982

"compared with adults, children are 3-fold less susceptible to infection, more likely to be asymptomatic, and less likely to be hospitalized and die. "

"School closures have many profound consequences on children ... regressions in academic gains, heightened depression and anxiety symptoms, greater digital dependence, and numerous unmet social needs"

" 27 million workers depend on schools for childcare, prolonging school closures will also preclude the United States from effectively reopening and sustaining the economy"

"Some schools in Germany are providing self-administered viral tests with overnight results and allowing attendance only if the child has a negative result. "

"Once in class, children could stay there through the day while teachers rotate. Denmark has temporarily closed shared spaces, such as libraries and gyms. "

"Most countries that have reopened schools have alcohol-based rubs inside classrooms and enforce periodic handwashing. Facilities are being cleaned and disinfected at least once a day "

"Protecting the workforce that interacts with children is also imperative. "

"proposals have included prioritizing children of essential workers. Irrespective of who is allowed back first, all children should be given the choice to opt out of face-to-face instruction to accommodate their own health needs or those of high-risk family members."

" none of the 22 European nations that have reopened schools have observed an increase in infections among children, parents, or staff. In time, best practices and successful implementation strategies from some of these countries could be adapted in the United States."

"With states cutting education budgets, heterogeneous resource availability among US school districts, and geographic variability in COVID-19 incidence, a 1-size-fits-all solution is unlikely. "

Read the whole thing:

https://jamanetwork.com/channels/health-forum/fullarticle/2767982

sidd

Paddy

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #801 on: August 03, 2020, 08:01:13 AM »
Statistical musings: what will the impact of COVID be on global life expectancy in 2020?

As things stood pre-COVID, global life expectancy was 73. We were seeing about 58 million deaths per year, half of them in people under 73, half in older.

If COVID causes a million excess deaths worldwide, and half a million of them are in people under the age of 73... it probably won't damage global life expectancy very perceptibly. Maybe we'll see a bit of a dip in countries with a relatively high life expectancy and a relatively high death toll (such as the UK, Spain,  Belgium, Chile, USA etc).

But if we see 10 million excess deaths this year, the additional 5 million or so people dying younger than 73 may well pull the global figure down a little, with rather more noticeable drops among countries that both have a high pre-COVID life expectancy and a high death toll.

Hopefully, a vaccine should significantly reduce global direct COVID mortality from 2021 onwards. But then we have the economic consequences of this situation, which may have a more lasting impact.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #802 on: August 03, 2020, 12:10:26 PM »
Is This An L Shaped Recovery?
https://upfina.com/is-this-an-l-shaped-recovery/
Quote
The labor market is in trouble and the number of businesses that are permanently shutting down is increasing. California is underperforming. That’s the worst state to be in trouble because it’s the biggest economy. The stock market sees what is now obvious. It has decided not to sell off all stocks, especially not the big internet names (until recently). Instead it has gone with sector rotation. Usually, in slowdowns and recessions, the most expensive stocks underperform, but this time value stocks are underperforming (until recently). The concept of there being safety in value hasn’t worked out yet.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #803 on: August 03, 2020, 11:16:25 PM »
(USA)

Arizona school superintendent: Reopening is a fantasy

"The governor has told us we have to open our schools to students on August 17th, or else we miss out on five percent of our funding"

"high-needs district in middle-of-nowhere Arizona. We’re 90 percent Hispanic and more than 90 percent free-and-reduced lunch."

"I already lost one teacher to this virus. "

"your classic one-horse town"

"We still haven’t received our order of Plexiglas barriers, so we’re cutting up shower curtains and trying to make do"

"last week I found out we had another staff member who tested positive"

"We got back two of those tests already — both positive. We’re still waiting on eight more. That makes 11 percent of my staff that’s gotten covid, and we haven’t had a single student in our buildings since March. Part of our facility is closed down for decontamination, but we don’t have anyone left to decontaminate it unless I want to put on my hazmat suit and go in there. "

"I don’t understand how anyone could expect us to reopen the building this month in a way that feels safe. "

"every time I start to play out what that looks like on August 17th, I get sick to my stomach. "

"it’s a fantasy. Kids will get sick, or worse. Family members will die. Teachers will die."

"A bunch of our teachers have told me they will put in for retirement if we open up this month. They’re saying: “Please don’t make us go back. This is crazy. We’re putting the whole community at risk.” "

"I agree with them 100 percent. "

" why are we getting bullied into opening? This district isn’t ready to open. I can’t have more people getting sick. Why are they threatening our funding? "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/01/schools-reopening-coronavirus-arizona-superintendent/

sidd

sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #804 on: August 04, 2020, 06:27:42 AM »
(USA)

Galloway on universities: reopening driven by money

"Right now half of colleges and universities plan to offer in-person classes, something resembling a normal college experience, this fall. This cannot happen. In-person classes should be minimal, ideally none."

"The economic circumstances for many of these schools are dire"

"many college presidents believe they have no choice. "

"the bulk of colleges have become tuition dependent. If students don’t return in the fall, many colleges will have to take drastic action that could have serious long-term impacts on their ability to fulfill their missions. "

"Universities owning up to the truth have one thing in common: they can afford to. Harvard, Yale, and the Cal State system have announced they will hold most or all classes online. The elite schools’ endowments and waiting lists make them largely bullet proof, and more resilient to economic shock"

"It’s delusional to think students will keep 6 feet apart."

"Thrive: The elite schools and those that offer strong value have an opportunity to emerge stronger "

"Challenged: ...  high admit rates, high tuition, low endowments, dependence on international students, and weak brand equity."

"Many are not prepared for a surge of infections. Some have permanent populations with high numbers of retirees attracted by the cultural benefits of a nearby college. Other at-risk cohorts include cafeteria workers, maintenance crews, security guards, librarians, bartenders, cab drivers, their spouses and family members, and anyone else unfortunate enough to have made the once perfectly reasonable decision to live in a college town. And if/when there is an outbreak, the healthcare infrastructure of these university towns could be overrun in a matter of weeks, if not days. "

https://www.profgalloway.com/uss-university

sidd

The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #805 on: August 04, 2020, 04:40:34 PM »
Many colleges are requiring that all students test negative for Covid before arriving on campus.  Once on campus, students are restricted room leaving - the colleges are cancelling breaks and leaves.  For many schools, this creates an "island" within the larger community.  Some schools cannot accomplish this due to their location within the community and proximity to others.  How well this works, rest upon the students. 

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #806 on: August 04, 2020, 04:42:23 PM »
Next COVID casualty: Cities hit hard by the pandemic face bankruptcy
https://theconversation.com/next-covid-casualty-cities-hit-hard-by-the-pandemic-face-bankruptcy-142539
Quote
The pandemic will reduce local government revenues by an estimated US$11.6 billion in 2020. With COVID-19 requiring residents to stay home and stores to shutter, the bulk of this reduction comes from a slump in local sales taxes. Declines will continue into 2021.

State revenues are heading in the same direction, so many U.S. cities will need to rely on help from the federal government. Aid to cities may be part of the next pandemic aid package now being discussed by members of the House and Senate. But so far, the Republicans’ bill leaves out any new funding for state and local governments, while the Democrats’ bill includes $1 trillion for it.

And if federal assistance arrives, it will not fix every city’s budget.

The pandemic has hit budgets so hard that even cities in relatively good financial health – including those with rainy day funds to help them through an emergency – will face significant changes to staffing and services.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Alexander555

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #807 on: August 04, 2020, 09:06:16 PM »
Massive money printing to fight the results of the covid-19 outbreak is pushing gold above 2000 usd/ounce for the first time ever. Silver up 6 %. And the winter in the NH still has to start. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-prices-edge-higher-but-march-to-2000-hamstrung-by-rising-dollar-2020-08-04?mod=hp_LATEST

glennbuck

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #808 on: August 05, 2020, 11:24:31 AM »
Covid-19 crisis devastates Spain’s tourism industry

The sector has recorded its worst semester ever, with a 97% drop in visitors and 750,000 jobs at risk

"The Spanish tourism sector has lost 27.3 million visitors and €28.4 billion in revenue in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. And the new outbreaks, coupled with travel advisories issued by several countries, suggest that things will not improve significantly during the second half of the year."

https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-08-05/covid-19-crisis-devastates-spains-tourism-industry.html?fbclid=IwAR32Osp_UMZZ1yWh5JYBoEXPT4YH2UCEncENIDLmTeX3mdrPgkIk6V9A3QA