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bluesky

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #900 on: August 09, 2019, 11:08:39 PM »
In Carbon Brief, mention of a new Nature Climate Change paper on SLR. Acceleration of SLR started in the 60ies, 30 years earlier than current belief and primarily causes by acceleration of the westerlies in the Southern Hemisphere generating upwelling of more deep cold water absorbing more heat therefore generating more oceanic thermal expansion. Contribution of ice melting did happen in the 1930ies as a late response of the end of the LIA, but ice melting did not contribute in the 50ies and 60ies and has been contributing again since the early 90ies. Acceleration of westerlies could be climate change (human) induced , but the causality is not proven for the moment
https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-sea-level-rise-began-accelerating-30-years-earlier-than-previously-thought

DrTskoul

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #901 on: August 10, 2019, 03:57:42 AM »
Science: The ocean’s tallest waves are getting taller

Quote
In the Southern Ocean, the trends are particularly strong. For instance, although average wind speeds there have increased by 2 centimeters per second each year, the speed of the top 10% fastest winds has increased by 5 centimeters per second per year. And although average wave heights there have increased by just 0.3 centimeters per year, the top 10% highest has grown by an average of 1 centimeter per year—a growth of 30 centimeters since 1985, they report today in Science.
The trends could be bad news for coastal communities, which face serious risks from sea level rise and extreme storm events, Young says. If oceanic winds are stronger and waves are taller, storms could be far more damaging.


DrTskoul

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #902 on: August 10, 2019, 04:01:55 AM »
Ocean at the Door: New Homes and the Rising Sea

PDF: 2019 Research Report by Climate Central and Zillow

Quote
Connecticut is developing risk zones more than 3x faster than safer locations

Delaware, Mississippi, New Jersey, Rhode Island are developing risk zones more than 2x faster than safer locations

Maine, New Hampshire, and South Carolina are developing risk zones faster than safer locations

New Jersey, Florida, and North Carolina have allowed the most homes built in risk zones, more than 9,000 since 2010

24 cities—including New York, Tampa, Virginia Beach, Charleston, and Galveston—have allowed at least 100 homes built in risk zones since 2010



bligh8

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #903 on: August 10, 2019, 06:09:39 AM »
Gatta love Zillow .. put out a report like this,  then try to sell ya waterfront properity.

The wave in the above post, that kinda wave hurts boats, that thing is breaking and tumbling heavily.  knockdown a sailboat & stove in freeboard on bulk carriers, that's how they break within Ocean currents, the gulf stream's North wall comes to mind.

bligh   

TerryM

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #904 on: August 10, 2019, 08:37:10 AM »
<snipped>

The wave in the above post, that kinda wave hurts boats, that thing is breaking and tumbling heavily.  knockdown a sailboat & stove in freeboard on bulk carriers, that's how they break within Ocean currents, the gulf stream's North wall comes to mind.

bligh


I've never seen a wave like that bligh - but then they're probably the last thing that many ever see.
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #905 on: August 21, 2019, 12:51:54 AM »
The East Coast is sinking under water—this photographer is documenting it as it disappears
In “On the Edge,” photographer J. Henry Fair shows how sea-level rise is slowly eating away at coastal communities and landscapes.
https://www.fastcompany.com/90391923/the-east-coast-is-sinking-under-water-this-photographer-is-documenting-it-as-it-disappears
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sidd

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #906 on: August 21, 2019, 07:58:44 AM »
Time to revise calculations for coastal realestate financing doom down again.

Another bit that concerns me is flooding inland after more violent precipitation events. But that's for another thread.

sidd

bligh8

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #907 on: August 21, 2019, 02:55:46 PM »

Another bit that concerns me is flooding inland after more violent precipitation events. But that's for another thread.

sidd

Hey...seems others are concerned as well ..

Re: Precipitation trends
« Reply #28 on: Today at 02:47:32 PM »

bligh

bligh8

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #908 on: August 27, 2019, 05:28:37 PM »
                           Staten Island seawall: Designing for climate change
                                            Updated 14th July 2019


"By 2025, New York's Staten Island will be fortified by a towering seawall running 5.3 miles along the coast, an engineering feat designed to ward off a growing threat.
The climate crisis is predicted to create more powerful and extreme weather systems all over the world, and coastal engineers are racing to respond with structures to reduce their impact.
The first seawalls were built centuries ago, though there are now, arguably, greater assets to protect and more people living along vulnerable coastlines than ever before.
A recent report by the Center for Climate Integrity estimated it could cost the US more than $400 billion over the next 20 years to protect coastal communities."

                                                 "Staten Island's new wall
When Hurricane Sandy smashed into the US East Coast in 2012, Staten Island was overwhelmed by massive waves that swept away properties and killed 24 of the dozens of people who eventually died in the storm.
With a population of almost half a million, low-lying Staten Island was no match for the waves whipped up in New York Harbor, one of which reached a record 32.5 feet high."

"Mostly granite is being used but in some cases we are using vegetation -- a particular type of vegetation from the trees there," Pareeth said.


"The design of seawalls has evolved over time, from rock -- which is still used -- to interlocking concrete units, including the Tetrapods commonly seen in Japan. When rock isn't available, concrete can be more cost-efficient, allowing large numbers of correctly-sized parts to be produced.

"In recent years there's been a greater push towards natural solutions -- using dunes, mangroves and man-made reefs alongside man-made walls to help calm the sea.
"We're not only building a structure that is functional in an engineering sense but it's functional in an environmental sense," said Matt Eliot, a coastal engineer and direct of Seashore Engineering based in Perth, Australia. "We're using that to look for what habitats we can encourage to make it better for the plants and animals in the area."
In some cases, holes and crevices are being built into the walls to encourage nature to grow around them. Other designs seek to reduce the impact of waves before they hit."

More within the article
https://www.cnn.com/style/article/staten-island-seawall-climate-crisis-design/index.html



 

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #909 on: August 27, 2019, 08:49:01 PM »
Sea Level Rise Task Force Wraps Up, Will Urge Jacksonville To Curb Emissions
https://news.wjct.org/post/sea-level-rise-task-force-wraps-will-urge-jacksonville-curb-emissions
Quote
Jacksonville’s state mandated sea level rise task force has wrapped up its work, approving the remaining proposals in a list of recommendations that will eventually go before City Council.

The group also agreed to urge the City to reduce its contributions to climate change.
Well, I guess for Florida this is big progress!
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #910 on: September 04, 2019, 06:39:25 PM »
The country disappearing under rising tides
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190829-bangladesh-the-country-disappearing-under-rising-tides
Quote
Bangladesh has been a vulnerable state for much of its short existence. People in this flood-prone country have coped with rising water levels with a combination of innovation, flexibility and resilience – but the extremes the environment is now throwing at them might be beyond anyone’s endurance.

As climate change accelerates, the pressures on rural Bangladeshis mount. Where previously people might have been able to move away for the worst of seasonal flooding, the regularity of waterlogging is making it impossible to farm. Crop varieties cannot cope with the saltwater, and career alternatives are limited.
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wolfpack513

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #911 on: September 07, 2019, 09:32:02 PM »
AVISO(JASON-3) global mean sea level updated through July 5, 2019.  You can see the slight jump the past 12 months due to the El Niño.  Level has also been above the linear trend for 4 years now.  With Acceleration GMSL should continue to outpace 1993-2019 linear regression.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #912 on: September 24, 2019, 08:49:46 PM »
‘Beyond what our instruments can tell us’: merging Indigenous knowledge and Western science at the edge of the world
https://thenarwhal.ca/beyond-instruments-can-tell-us-merging-indigenous-knowledge-western-science-end-world/
Quote
Residents of remote Tuktoyaktuk — which may become the first community in Canada to relocate due to coastal erosion and sea level rise — are taking climate data gathering into their own hands

The melting Arctic is Shanghai's worst nightmare
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/node/5425
Quote
The National Snow and Ice Data Center estimated that 55 billion tons of Greenland ice melted into the ocean during the unusual warm days between July 30 and August 2 this summer.

The news comes along with a growing awareness that sea levels may rise much faster than previously predicted by scientists.

For the 24 million people living in Shanghai that is very bad news.

This week, world leaders gather for the UN Climate Summit in New York to address the crisis. The summit is the most important since the 2015 Paris climate agreement on limiting global average warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

Shanghai is one of several megacities in the world at high risk of being flooded if nothing is done to curb global warming.

A recent study warns sea level rise could be twice as bad as the upper limit outlined in the last report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC).

“For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm Sea Level Rise contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm,” the report reads.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2019, 09:25:18 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #913 on: September 25, 2019, 01:57:04 PM »
First time I have seen a UN report saying there will be severe consequences even if everything required is done and on time.

UN Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate


Links:-
Summary for Policymakers....
https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_SPM_Approved.pdf

Press Release...
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/09/SROCC_PressRelease_EN.pdf

Headline Statements
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/09/SROCC_SPM_HeadlineStatements.pdf

some figures from the report attached

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/25/extreme-sea-level-events-will-hit-once-a-year-by-2050
Extreme sea level events ‘will hit once a year by 2050’
Climate report says intense storms and loss of marine life are already inevitable

Quote
The stark assessment of the climate crisis in the world’s oceans and ice caps concludes that many serious impacts are already inevitable, from more intense storms to melting permafrost and dwindling marine life.

But far worse impacts will hit without urgent action to cut fossil fuel emissions, including eventual sea level rise of more than 4 metres in the worst case, an outcome that would redraw the map of the world and harm billions of people.

The report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and approved by its 193 member nations, says that “all people on Earth depend directly or indirectly on the ocean” and ice caps and glaciers to regulate the climate and provide water and oxygen. But it finds unprecedented and dangerous changes being driven by global heating.

Sea level rise is accelerating as losses from Greenland and Antarctica increase, and the ocean is getting hotter, more acidic and less oxygenated. All these trends will continue to the end of the century, the IPCC report said.

Half the world’s megacities, and almost 2 billion people, live on coasts. Even if heating is restricted to just 2C, scientists expect the impact of sea level rise to cause several trillion dollars of damage a year, and result in many millions of migrants.

“The future for low-lying coastal communities looks extremely bleak,” said Prof Jonathan Bamber at Bristol University in the UK, who is not one of the report’s authors. “But the consequences will be felt by all of us. There is plenty to be concerned about for the future of humanity and social order from the headlines in this report.”

The new IPCC projections of likely sea level rise by 2100 are higher than those it made in 2014, due to unexpectedly fast melting in Antarctica. Without cuts in carbon emissions, the ocean is expected to rise between 61cm and 110cm, about 10cm more than the earlier estimate. A 10cm rise means an additional 10 million people exposed to flooding, research shows.

IPCC Report in numbers

5.4 metres: highest likely sea level rise by 2300, if global carbon emissions are not cut.

653bn tonnes: average ice melted in Greenland, Antarctica and mountain glaciers every year from 2006-2016, equivalent to 500 Olympic swimming pools every minute.

100-1,000 times: the increase in coastal flood damages expected in 2100 unless major adaptation efforts are made.

1.8 billion people: the number likely to be directly affected by sea level rise on low-lying coasts and melting glaciers in high mountain regions in 2050.

1,500bn tonnes: the carbon stored in permafrost, almost double all the carbon in the atmosphere.

7,000: the number of scientific articles considered by the 104 expert authors from 36 countries.
[/size]
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #914 on: September 25, 2019, 02:37:33 PM »
The BBC's report about the UN report

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49817804

All you city dwellers - take note. It isn't just the South Pacific Island States and Louisiana's Boot.

Not 2100, try 2050, and for some even earlier.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #915 on: September 25, 2019, 05:04:38 PM »
Gerontocrat, I saw that also.  But much is overhype.  They forecast sea level rise around England at about half a meter, while London sits at 12m above sea level.  Istanbul and Seoul are further above sea level (~40m), with a similar forecasted SLR.  Lima is not even close to sea level, rising almost 300 m above the sea. 

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #916 on: September 25, 2019, 05:22:41 PM »
KK, cities are not points. One part of a city may be a hundred feet above sea level, and another neighborhood may be seven inches above sea level.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #917 on: September 25, 2019, 05:57:28 PM »
Gerontocrat, I saw that also.  But much is overhype.  They forecast sea level rise around England at about half a meter, while London sits at 12m above sea level.  Istanbul and Seoul are further above sea level (~40m), with a similar forecasted SLR.  Lima is not even close to sea level, rising almost 300 m above the sea.
If all of London was at 12 m above sea level, the Thames Barrier would not have been built. The Houses of Parliament are merely one iconic symbol of the vulnerability of Central London along the Thames that already exists without any further sea level rise. Flooding is one of London’s highest risks with up to 680,000 properties at risk of flooding across the capital. Add half a metre sea level rise?

Lima - from a 2014 report. Half a metre sea level rise would, I think, make many low flooding risk areas into high-risk flooding areas.

I have to say your post is extremely misleading, much more than the BBC article.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #918 on: September 25, 2019, 06:26:30 PM »
KK, cities are not points. One part of a city may be a hundred feet above sea level, and another neighborhood may be seven inches above sea level.

Tom,
None of these cities have neighborhoods that you describe.  London and Seoul are not even on the coast.  The lowest point in London along the Thames, still 5m above sea level.  The Han River running through Seoul is 16M above sea level.  Istanbul rises rapidly from the sea, and Lima is located on a 70m cliff overlooking the ocean. 

We will have much bigger problems, if these cities have SLR issues.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #919 on: September 25, 2019, 06:30:36 PM »
Gerontocrat, I saw that also.  But much is overhype.  They forecast sea level rise around England at about half a meter, while London sits at 12m above sea level.  Istanbul and Seoul are further above sea level (~40m), with a similar forecasted SLR.  Lima is not even close to sea level, rising almost 300 m above the sea.
If all of London was at 12 m above sea level, the Thames Barrier would not have been built. The Houses of Parliament are merely one iconic symbol of the vulnerability of Central London along the Thames that already exists without any further sea level rise. Flooding is one of London’s highest risks with up to 680,000 properties at risk of flooding across the capital. Add half a metre sea level rise?

Lima - from a 2014 report. Half a metre sea level rise would, I think, make many low flooding risk areas into high-risk flooding areas.

I have to say your post is extremely misleading, much more than the BBC article.

What is extremely misleading is posting flood risks due to rivers overflowing, and claiming that it is due to sea level rise.  Read your links please.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #920 on: September 25, 2019, 06:40:43 PM »
The threat to London is definitely overhyped. Cities which aren't controlling their groundwater extraction and are subsiding far faster than the sea is rising are in a much worse situation.

Plans are in place at the moment to deal with 2.7m rise by 2100 and major expenditure to protect London isn't anticipated till the 2050s/60s with the Thames barrier expected to provide its designed level of protection until about 2070.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/322061/LIT7540_43858f.pdf

2010 plan for 2100, 2015 review found changes were proceeding as expected, next review due next year.


Alison

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #921 on: September 26, 2019, 05:53:45 AM »
Quote
What is extremely misleading is posting flood risks due to rivers overflowing, and claiming that it is due to sea level rise.

As I live next to the Thames, I’ll be sure to distinguish between sea water and river water when the inundation comes. In the interim, I’ll continue to lose sleep over a combination of the two...
« Last Edit: September 26, 2019, 07:11:07 AM by Alison »

Alison

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #922 on: September 26, 2019, 05:55:07 AM »
Quote
The threat to London is definitely overhyped.

That’s OK then.

oren

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #923 on: September 26, 2019, 06:09:11 AM »
KK, indeed it is a wonder why the Thames barrier was built, given that the elevation of London is 12m above sea level. These UK folks must be stupid.

Quote
The Thames Barrier prevents the floodplain of most of Greater London from being flooded by exceptionally high tides and storm surges moving up from the North Sea.

Rivers overflowing?

Alison

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #924 on: September 26, 2019, 06:43:31 AM »
The barrier is closed in response to the threat of tidal flooding or fluvial flooding in almost equal proportions. Sea level is rising and rainfall events are becoming more extreme.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2019, 07:13:25 AM by Alison »

sidd

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #925 on: September 26, 2019, 08:34:26 AM »
SLR is one of those effects singled out as "deeply uncertain."

After some naive and touching optimism in the first chapter

"Under RCP2.6, the rate is projected to reach 4 mm yr -1 (2–6 mm yr –1 , likely range) in 2100. "

(the rate is 3.6 mm/yr right now over the last 4 yr) they get down to the nub of the matter:

"Processes controlling the timing of future ice-shelf loss and the extent of ice sheet instabilities could increase Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise to values substantially higher than the likely range on century and longer time-scales (low confidence). Considering the consequences of sea level rise that a collapse of parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheet entails, this high impact risk merits attention."

You dont say ! Chapter 3 reveals the sausage making:

"However, the magnitude of additional rise beyond 2100, and the probability of greater sea level rise than that included in the likely range before 2100, are characterised by deep uncertainty"

"there is growing observational and modelling evidence that accelerated retreat may be underway in several major Amundsen Sea outlets, including Thwaites, Pine Island, Smith, and Kohler glaciers (e.g., Rignot et al., 2014) supporting the MISI hypothesis, although observed grounding-line retreat on retrograde slope is not definitive proof that MISI is underway."

"This ice cliff failure can lead to ice sheet retreat via a process called marine ice cliff instability (MICI; Figure CB8.1b), that has been hypothesized to cause partial collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet within a few centuries (Pollard et al., 2015; DeConto and Pollard, 2016)."

"Limited evidence is available to confirm the importance of MICI. In Antarctica, marine-terminating ice margins with the grounding lines thick enough to produce unstable ice cliffs are currently buttressed by ice shelves, with a possible exception of Crane glacier on the Antarctic Peninsula (Section 4.2.3.1.2). Overall, there is low agreement on the exact MICI mechanism and limited evidence of its occurrence in the present or the past. Thus the potential of MICI to impact the future sea level remains very uncertain (Edwards et al., 2019)."

"Limited evidence from geological records and ice sheet modelling suggests that parts of AIS experienced
rapid (i.e., on centennial time-scale) retreat likely due to ice sheet instability processes between 20,000 and
9,000 years ago (Golledge et al., 2014; Weber et al., 2014; Small et al., 2019)."

"Overall, this assessment finds that unstable retreat and thinning of some Antarctic glaciers, and to a lesser extent Greenland outlet glaciers, may be underway. However, the timescale and future rate of these processes is not well known, casting deep uncertainty on projections of the sea level contributions from the Antarctic ice sheet"

O dear. Looking at those curves for projected SLR over the years remind me of the projections for solar and wind power growth over the years. Consistently underestimated by huge margins.

They admit that GIS mass waste  doubles and AIS mass waste triples every decade, not counting other glaciers.  At this rate we will have close to half a meter cumulative SLR by 2050 when the ocean will be rising at several cm/yr. A meter cumulative will be 2060.

sidd

TerryM

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #926 on: September 26, 2019, 09:26:00 AM »
SLR is one of those effects singled out as "deeply uncertain."

After some naive and touching optimism in the first chapter

<snipped>

They admit that GIS mass waste  doubles and AIS mass waste triples every decade, not counting other glaciers.  At this rate we will have close to half a meter cumulative SLR by 2050 when the ocean will be rising at several cm/yr. A meter cumulative will be 2060.

sidd
That's going to be one hell of a decade!
Terry

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #927 on: September 26, 2019, 10:35:57 AM »
Hi all,
Thanks to Neven for a fascinating forum. I read mainly for the facts and to remind myself of the slow inexorable impact of climate change.

I would just like to say that the Thames in London is tidal. (up to Teddington Lock).
The Thames barrier was built to protect London from storm surge due to low pressure systems in North Sea, combined with high tides.
Flooding due to this type of event has occurred in the past 1928
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26153241
and a similar event 1953 (though not affecting London so much) caused the Thames Barrier to be built.

These events, while not common, will certainly be exacerbated by sea level rise of 0.5 meter.

all the bestDD

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #928 on: September 26, 2019, 12:53:36 PM »
You think that’s bad, wait till you get to 2070!
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #929 on: September 26, 2019, 01:03:19 PM »
You think that’s bad, wait till you get to 2070!

You might get to 2070, I won't.
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nanning

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #930 on: September 26, 2019, 05:53:35 PM »
Me neither.
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kassy

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #931 on: September 26, 2019, 09:27:52 PM »
I skipped kids so i hang out with my best friends ones. Last visit some newspaper headline was related to global warming so we briefly discussed it. So the kids asked what it was. He told them in a very general way and then they went on with their 7 and 5 yo business.

Born 2012 you are 58 in 2070, 38 in 2050.

We had our problems but the ozone hole got sort of fixed and we got rid of the acid rain.
If we had started tackling this problem then we could be so much further.

It is about those kids.

´You stole my dreams´

You have dreams about the future and then they either become true or they don´t. But they should have the same sort of chances we had. We do an awful job if you consider global warming, plastic pollution, chemical pollution in general, not sustainable land and sea use etc.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #932 on: September 26, 2019, 09:39:40 PM »
SLR is one of those effects singled out as "deeply uncertain."

After some naive and touching optimism in the first chapter

"Under RCP2.6, the rate is projected to reach 4 mm yr -1 (2–6 mm yr –1 , likely range) in 2100. "

(the rate is 3.6 mm/yr right now over the last 4 yr) they get down to the nub of the matter:

"Processes controlling the timing of future ice-shelf loss and the extent of ice sheet instabilities could increase Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise to values substantially higher than the likely range on century and longer time-scales (low confidence). Considering the consequences of sea level rise that a collapse of parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheet entails, this high impact risk merits attention."

You dont say ! Chapter 3 reveals the sausage making:

"However, the magnitude of additional rise beyond 2100, and the probability of greater sea level rise than that included in the likely range before 2100, are characterised by deep uncertainty"

"there is growing observational and modelling evidence that accelerated retreat may be underway in several major Amundsen Sea outlets, including Thwaites, Pine Island, Smith, and Kohler glaciers (e.g., Rignot et al., 2014) supporting the MISI hypothesis, although observed grounding-line retreat on retrograde slope is not definitive proof that MISI is underway."

"This ice cliff failure can lead to ice sheet retreat via a process called marine ice cliff instability (MICI; Figure CB8.1b), that has been hypothesized to cause partial collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet within a few centuries (Pollard et al., 2015; DeConto and Pollard, 2016)."

"Limited evidence is available to confirm the importance of MICI. In Antarctica, marine-terminating ice margins with the grounding lines thick enough to produce unstable ice cliffs are currently buttressed by ice shelves, with a possible exception of Crane glacier on the Antarctic Peninsula (Section 4.2.3.1.2). Overall, there is low agreement on the exact MICI mechanism and limited evidence of its occurrence in the present or the past. Thus the potential of MICI to impact the future sea level remains very uncertain (Edwards et al., 2019)."

"Limited evidence from geological records and ice sheet modelling suggests that parts of AIS experienced
rapid (i.e., on centennial time-scale) retreat likely due to ice sheet instability processes between 20,000 and
9,000 years ago (Golledge et al., 2014; Weber et al., 2014; Small et al., 2019)."

"Overall, this assessment finds that unstable retreat and thinning of some Antarctic glaciers, and to a lesser extent Greenland outlet glaciers, may be underway. However, the timescale and future rate of these processes is not well known, casting deep uncertainty on projections of the sea level contributions from the Antarctic ice sheet"

O dear. Looking at those curves for projected SLR over the years remind me of the projections for solar and wind power growth over the years. Consistently underestimated by huge margins.

They admit that GIS mass waste  doubles and AIS mass waste triples every decade, not counting other glaciers.  At this rate we will have close to half a meter cumulative SLR by 2050 when the ocean will be rising at several cm/yr. A meter cumulative will be 2060.

sidd

You're off by about a century in your projections, even if Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI), which is unproven, does occur.

Here is the paper by DeConto and Pollard on MICI:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X14007961

To get MICI, they first have to instantaneoly increase the ocean temperatures by 2 degrees from the current temperatures:

Quote
3. Results: warm climate forcing
To investigate the impact of the cliff-failure and melt-driven hydrofracture mechanisms, the ice-sheet model is run forward in time, forced by climate representative of past warm periods. Simulations are started from a previous spin-up of modern Antarctica using observed climatology. An instantaneous change to a warmer climate is applied, broadly representative of a warm Pliocene period.  The past warm atmospheric climate is obtained from the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model (Pal et al., 2007) applied over Antarctica with some physical adaptations for polar regions, and with 400 ppmv CO2 and an orbit yielding particularly strong austral summers (DeConto et al., 2012). Detailed simulation of ocean warming beneath Antarctic ice shelves is currently not feasible on these time scales, so a simple uniform increment of +2°C
is added to modern observed ocean temperatures
, broadly consistent with circum-Antarctic warming in Pliocene paleo-oceanic reconstructions (Dowsett et al., 2009). The climate forcings are described in more detail in Supplementary Material Section S.3.

The result of that are:

Quote
...the new mechanisms cause retreat deep into the major East Antarctic basins within a few thousand years. As expected from previous modeling (Pollard and DeConto, 2009), the West Antarctic marine ice collapses first. It would collapse without the new mechanisms due to MISI, but here the WAIS retreat is greatly accelerated by the new mechanisms, occurring on decadal rather than century-to-millennial time scales.

Quote
The equivalent eustatic sea level rise reaches 5 m after ∼200 yr and 17 m after ∼3000 yr (Fig. 4, red curve), similar in magnitude to albeit uncertain proxy estimates of past sea-level variations mentioned above. About 3 mesl comes from West Antarctica, and the remaining
∼14mesl comes from East Antarctic basins. The bigger contribution of EAIS, despite its similar area of collapse to WAIS, is explained by the much greater volumes of ice above flotation in the East Antarctic basins, particularly in the Aurora

DeConto and Pollard go into more detail in their 2016 paper:

https://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/papers2/DeConto2016.pdf

Quote
Future simulations Using the same model physics and parameter values as used in the Pliocene and LIG simulations, we apply the ice-sheet model to longterm future simulations (Methods). Here, atmospheric forcing is  provided by high-resolution RCM simulations (Extended Data Fig. 4)  following ollowing three extended Representative Carbon Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)36. Future circum-Antarctic  ocean temperatures used in our time-evolving sub-ice melt-rate  calculations come from matching, high-resolution (1°) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) CCSM4 simulations  (ref. 37, Extended Data Fig. 5). The simulations begin in 1950 to provide  some hindcast spinup, and are run for 550 years to 2500.

The RCP scenarios (Fig. 4) produce a wide range of future Antarctic contributions to sea level, with RCP2.6 producing almost no net change by 2100, and only 20 cm by 2500. Conversely, RCP4.5 causes almost complete WAIS collapse within the next five hundred years, primarily owing to the retreat of Thwaites Glacier into the deep WAIS interior. The Siple Coast grounding zone remains stable until late in the simulation, thanks to the persistence of the buttressing Ross Ice Shelf (see Supplementary Video 2).  InRCP4.5, GMSL rise is 32 cm by 2100, but subsequent retreat of the WAIS interior, followed by the fringes of the Wilkes Basin and the Totten Glacier/Law Dome sector of the Aurora Basin produces 5 m of GMSL rise by 2500. In RCP8.5, increased precipitation causes an initial, minor gain in total ice mass (Fig. 4d), but rapidly warming summer air temperatures trigger extensive surface meltwater production38 and hydrofracturing of ice shelves by the middle of this century (Extended Data Fig. 4). The Larsen C is one of the first shelves to be lost, about 2055. Around the same time, major thinning and retreat of outlet glaciers commences in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, beginning with Pine Island Glacier (Fig. 4h), and along the Bellingshausen margin. Massive meltwater production on shelf surfaces, and eventually on the flanks of the ice sheet, would quickly overcome the buffering capacity of firn39. In the model, the meltwater accelerates WAIS retreat via its thermomechanical  influence on ice rheology (Methods) and the influence of hydrofacturing on crevassing and structural failure of the retreating margin. Antarctica contributes 77 cm of GMSL rise by 2100, and continued loss of the Ross and Weddell Sea ice shelves drives WAIS retreat from three sides simultaneously (the Amundsen, Ross, and Weddell seas), all with reverse-sloping beds into the deep ice-sheet interior. As a result, WAIS collapses within 250 years. At the same time, steady retreat into the Wilkes and Aurora basins, where the ice above floatation is >2,000 m thick, adds substantially to the rate of sea-level rise, exceeding 4 cm yr−1 (Fig. 4c) in the next century, which is comparable to maximum rates of sea-level rise during the last deglaciation40. At 2500, GMSL rise for the RCP8.5 scenario is 12.3 m. As in our LIG simulations, atmosphere–ice sheet coupling accounting for the warming feedback associated with the retreating ice sheet adds an additional 1.3 m of GMSL to the RCP8.5 scenario (Fig. 4b).

sidd

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #933 on: September 26, 2019, 11:11:10 PM »
I should say i'm basing the 2050 projection off the decadal doubling and tripling of mass waste on AIS and GRIS . If that rate slackens, then the prediction will be in error.

That said, i await GRACE-FO results over the next few years.

sidd

nanning

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #934 on: September 27, 2019, 04:44:48 AM »
<snip>

A bit late but: Welcome to the forum Diaminedave :).
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bluice

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #935 on: September 27, 2019, 02:37:00 PM »
I skipped kids so i hang out with my best friends ones. Last visit some newspaper headline was related to global warming so we briefly discussed it. So the kids asked what it was. He told them in a very general way and then they went on with their 7 and 5 yo business.

Born 2012 you are 58 in 2070, 38 in 2050.

We had our problems but the ozone hole got sort of fixed and we got rid of the acid rain.
If we had started tackling this problem then we could be so much further.

It is about those kids.

´You stole my dreams´

You have dreams about the future and then they either become true or they don´t. But they should have the same sort of chances we had. We do an awful job if you consider global warming, plastic pollution, chemical pollution in general, not sustainable land and sea use etc.
I hate it how it all comes down to my generation. We knew the problem, we knew the severity of consequences, but we failed to do anything about it.

My daughter was born in 2012. In 2050 I will be an old man, but she will be younger than I am today. She may or may not have her own children then.

2050 is about 30 years from today. 30 years may sound like a long time, but Berlin Wall was broken about 30 years ago. Saddam invaded Kuwait about 30 years ago. Hell, I saw Kurt Cobain in concert almost 30 years ago.

Majority of anthropocenic GHG were emitted within the last 30 years.

We failed and our children will hate our guts for it.
In PIOMAS we trust

nanning

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #936 on: September 27, 2019, 03:42:22 PM »
^^
Quote
We failed and our children will hate our guts for it.

Not everyone is guilty of that high energy consumerist behaviour. Not everyone is rich. Most are poor. (def: rich=non-poor)
Please keep that in mind.

They, the young people, will appreciate my behaviour because I took my personal moral responsibility (zero direct emissions etc), I have no children, chose to be poor and don't belong to the grown-up world of accumulation and I have never felt supreme over non-grown-ups, and I don't heat my house and don't use warm water. I'm outside a lot. I set a good example.

BUT!
It is not too late for you. You can still change! CONSIDER: How will the young humans judge you?

edit : added heating, warm water, outside
« Last Edit: September 28, 2019, 06:46:56 PM by nanning »
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bbr2314

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #937 on: September 28, 2019, 12:31:59 AM »
^^
Quote
We failed and our children will hate our guts for it.

Not everyone is guilty of that high energy consumerist behaviour. Not everyone is rich. Most are poor. (def: rich=non-poor)
Please keep that in mind.

They, the young people, will appreciate my behaviour because I took my personal moral responsibility (zero direct emissions etc), I have no children, chose to be poor and don't belong to the grown-up world of accumulation and I have never felt supreme over non-grown-ups. I set a good example.

BUT!
It is not too late for you. You can still change! CONSIDER: How will the young humans judge you?
Why would they appreciate your behavior if they don't know you exist or the way you acted. I don't think your consumption habits are bad but I do think you are deluded if you believe anyone will thank you for them. If humans had that kind of attitude we wouldn't be in today's climate situation.

The more likely outcome is that the young people of tomorrow will be even more stupidly brainwashed than the young people of today. They also face a greater likelihood of being pitted against one another in another way to expend excess population.

Greta's entire shtick is exactly that and I think it does more harm than good to the actual narrative on climate change when a little girl can dominate headlines with substance-less histrionics on the subject. Meanwhile climate scientists are incapable of explaining why catastrophe is actually impending, and instead spit out numbers like 1.5C bleep bloop bloop, sounding like sad little robots.

bluice

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #938 on: September 28, 2019, 09:09:10 AM »
Nanning, I meant we have failed collectively as a generation. Personally I have a fairly low carbon lifestyle but on the grand scheme of things it doesn’t really matter.
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nanning

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #939 on: September 28, 2019, 10:04:17 AM »
Nanning, I meant we have failed collectively as a generation. Personally I have a fairly low carbon lifestyle but on the grand scheme of things it doesn’t really matter.

You mean the poor people in Africa have failed as well?
And the Amazon indians have failed?
 >:(
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bluice

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #940 on: September 28, 2019, 10:26:19 AM »
Nanning, I meant we have failed collectively as a generation. Personally I have a fairly low carbon lifestyle but on the grand scheme of things it doesn’t really matter.

You mean the poor people in Africa have failed as well?
And the Amazon indians have failed?
 >:(
No Nanning, I don’t mean that. I mean us middle-aged educated people in well-off societies who’ve had the knowledge all this time. Our countries haven’t done shit about climate. Now we dragging the rest of the world as well as our own offspring down the drain.

We should have marched on the streets demanding change 30 years ago instead of sitting and waiting for somebody to fix everyting.
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wili

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #941 on: September 28, 2019, 03:37:09 PM »
"We should have marched on the streets demanding change 30 years ago instead of sitting and waiting for somebody to fix everyting."

Well, some of 'us' did.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2019, 03:42:18 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #942 on: September 28, 2019, 03:40:13 PM »
Actually it should have been 39 years ago when Reagan won. That was the turning point in AGW  (although PO was the issue at the time).
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

nanning

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #943 on: September 28, 2019, 06:03:04 PM »
Nanning, I meant we have failed collectively as a generation. Personally I have a fairly low carbon lifestyle but on the grand scheme of things it doesn’t really matter.

You mean the poor people in Africa have failed as well?
And the Amazon indians have failed?
 >:(
No Nanning, I don’t mean that. I mean us middle-aged educated people in well-off societies who’ve had the knowledge all this time. Our countries haven’t done shit about climate. Now we dragging the rest of the world as well as our own offspring down the drain.

We should have marched on the streets demanding change 30 years ago instead of sitting and waiting for somebody to fix everyting.

People are real. A country is not.
Humans can make choices. Personal choices and sacrifices to do the right thing. To not engage in a bad system.
For example: Why not do away with your car? Billions of humans don't have a car.

I'm sorry, but it is YOU, the rich people who are responsible with your voting and consumption and grown-up's accumulation and groupbehaviour. Voting in neo-liberalist parties every F* election.  >:(

I define 'rich' as being 'not poor'. There's nothing inbetween. I was puzzled for some time and considered different levels of richness but that's insane I have found. e.g. The insane class systems etc.

I don't mean to attack you specifically bluice but the general consumerist dreamworld, the car, fashion insanity, eating out, buying products in a shop that you didn't plan to buy, giving in to temptation, insane global tourism etc.


edit: added fashion and improved last sentence
« Last Edit: September 29, 2019, 05:07:23 AM by nanning »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #944 on: September 28, 2019, 07:20:09 PM »
This thread is for data & analysis thereof.
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nanning

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #945 on: September 29, 2019, 03:34:18 PM »
This thread is for data & analysis thereof.

Sorry gerontocrat, but I don't understand you. Don't you think these sort of discussions are important in the context of the cilmate- and biocollapse- crises? When are we finally past the point of "there's still time"? I think facing the reality consequences of what's happening is now more important than scientifically studying the ongoing collapse. I'd like to refer to the precautionary principle and the self-preservation instinct.
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oren

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #946 on: September 29, 2019, 05:21:28 PM »
Nanning I agree, of course these issues are very important and need to be discussed, they just belong better in an appropriate thread.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #947 on: September 29, 2019, 07:58:15 PM »
 Nanning, your strict black and white ignores the large number of people which are neither rich nor poor. 

nanning

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #948 on: September 30, 2019, 05:08:00 AM »
(My final off-topic here. Apologies gerontocrat and oren, I thought this isn't an important data thread)

Nanning, your strict black and white ignores the large number of people which are neither rich nor poor.

Yes Klondike, you don't understand :). There are only two forms: A person is either poor or rich.
The idea of rich persons is the problem. It shouldn't exist. It always brings supremacy and insanity.

Without the concept of rich persons, there are no poor persons either because that's just a consequence of that concept of rich persons.
Some insanity examples: Accumulation madness. Hierarchy madness. Status madness. Empire madness. Conquest madness. Growing inequality madness. High born madness. Inheritance madness. Not sharing madness.

From an Amazon chief: "we only eat when everyone has to eat". Now THAT is sanity and humanity. Do you understand?

Monetary and possessions wise a rich person is difficult to define, but not impossible. The point where 'rich' starts.
I am poor and cannot replace a broken oven or fridge. My neighbour can, so he is rich, but not rich in the way that you think of 'rich'. Should I ever need e.g. an electric bike, I won't be able to buy one. Too expensive for poor persons. I use 1 teabag a day for ca. 7 cups of tea because I need to watch my budget everywhere. Life for a poor person is unimaginable for most people who are not poor. The tight budget stresses even basic food and energy use.

Example from outside of civilisations:
Nobody is rich and nobody is poor.
Take a look at the indiginous humans in the Amazon who are outside of civilisation.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #949 on: October 29, 2019, 10:17:06 PM »
Quote
Posted by: nanning
« on: September 30, 2019, 04:08:00 AM »Insert Quote
(My final off-topic here. Apologies gerontocrat and oren, I thought this isn't an important data thread)

Some new data that some people might consider important

Open access
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/29/rising-sea-levels-pose-threat-to-homes-of-300m-people-study
Rising sea levels pose threat to homes of 300m people – study
Quote
Figure based on new analysis of coastlines is more than three times previous estimate[/b]
More than three times more people are at risk from rising sea levels than previously believed, research suggests.

Land that is currently home to 300 million people will flood at least once a year by 2050 unless carbon emissions are cut significantly and coastal defences strengthened, says the study, published in Nature Communications. This is far above the previous estimate of 80 million.

The upward revision is based on a more sophisticated assessment of the topography of coastlines around the world. Previous models used satellite data that overestimated the altitude of land due to tall buildings and trees. The new study used artificial intelligence to compensate for such misreadings.

Researchers said the magnitude of difference from the previous Nasa study came as a shock. “These assessments show the potential of climate change to reshape cities, economies, coastlines and entire global regions within our lifetimes,” said Scott Kulp, the lead author of the study and a senior scientist at Climate Central.

“As the tideline rises higher than the ground people call home, nations will increasingly confront questions about whether, how much and how long coastal defences can protect them.”

The biggest change in estimates was in Asia, which is home to the majority of the world’s population. The numbers at risk of an annual flood by 2050 increased more than eightfold in Bangladesh, sevenfold in India, twelvefold in India and threefold in China.

The threat is already being felt in Indonesia, where the government recently announced plans to move the capital city from Jakarta, which is subsiding and increasingly vulnerable to flooding. The new figures show 23 million people are at risk in Indonesia, up from the previous estimate of 5 million.
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