ENSO 2023

[Sublime_Rime]

Just a heads up that we've had quite the jump over the past couple days. Given the differing baselines used, I think the current level would equate to >2C on the scale NOAA uses. Will it persist and deliver a "Super" El nino?

[kassy]

Persist? Yes. Super depends on what is super.

The ongoing 2023 El Niño may be releasing even more warmth than previous ones, because the world had previously been in an extended cool phase - an opposite weather system known as La Niña.

...

Normally, scientists expect a delay of around three months between maximum El Niño strength and global air temperatures peaking, explains Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, a science organisation in the US.

But air temperatures have risen much more quickly during this El Niño than with previous ones, and it's not even reached full strength yet.

As Dr Hausfather puts it, "this El Niño is weird."

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67360929

And to complicate things there probably is some global response to overall warming which manifested at the same time while it is not related to EN per se. See early 2023 Atlantic temps for example.

[grixm]

The sudden daily rise continues. 1.615 today

[Sublime_Rime]

Thanks Kassy, I was going by the 2.0C threshold for Super, though it is somewhat arbitrary and I'm sure other factors play an important role in how strongly the EN effects manifest. The 2C assumes a roughly 0.5C higher baseline than used on Tropicaltidbits.com, so we are around 2.1C as of today. But they use 3 month averages, so this would not count as >2C unless it persists for another 2-3 months.

As you allude to, I think Zeke is assuming the temp rise is entirely associated with EN, which seems presumptuous.

[Steven]

Thanks Kassy, I was going by the 2.0C threshold for Super, though it is somewhat arbitrary and I'm sure other factors play an important role in how strongly the EN effects manifest. The 2C assumes a roughly 0.5C higher baseline than used on Tropicaltidbits.com, so we are around 2.1C as of today. But they use 3 month averages, so this would not count as >2C unless it persists for another 2-3 months.

Interesting to see the recent uptick in the daily Nino 3.4 values.  We'll see whether or not this shows up in the weekly and monthly reports, which all use different datasets for sea surface temperature.  The weekly reports use OISSTv2.1, while the 3-monthly ONI values use ERSSTv5, and the daily values use CDAS reanalysis.

I would rather use the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) to judge the strength of El Nino.  This index has been rather mediocre for the 2023 El Nino so far, much weaker than the 2015/16 and 1997/98 events.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/#data

[kassy]

As you allude to, I think Zeke is assuming the temp rise is entirely associated with EN, which seems presumptuous.

I did no such thing. It is a short quote from a longer article which talks about various facets of the temperature rise and they asked him about EN. So i don´t think Zeke is assuming what you think he is assuming.

Anyway if 2C on that metric is what makes it super it will probably reach that but then there are other metrics such the one Steven mentioned above.

We will see how far it goes.

[Sublime_Rime]

My apologies for putting words into your mouth.

But from how the article quotes Zeke (for whom I have quite a bit of respect), both in the section you quoted and what he says regarding the changes to aerosols, it does seem to imply that the El Nino is "weird" because we are seeing its warming effect earlier than anticipated, when a much simpler explanation would be there is more at play than just an El Nino. They the bring up the other factors, but the tone is dismissive in each case.

I think they should have instead said something like: "This is a strange year, climactically, because we are seeing warming that doesn't fit a typical El Nino pattern, and therefore implies that other factors are at play"

An even greater error, from my persective, is that the article says we are seeing the El Nino ramp up faster than expected, when it seems like the opposite is true. Other major El Nino years showed earlier Nino 3.4 index increases than we are seeing currently, but attributed warming was delayed relatively.

The pattern of warming, from my perspective, seems to support the contribution of removal of aerosols over the oceans, as one would expect this to bury heat in the ocean while in a La Nina phase and during the warm season, and then release that heat even more so while in an El Nino and cold or transitional season.

[Steven]

The westerly wind burst that caused the recent increase of SST in the Nino 3.4 region has ended.  The daily Nino 3.4 index is slightly decreasing now, but is still much higher than 10 days ago.  So the weekly index might still reach +2C, as Sublime_Rime suggested upthread  (we'll see tomorrow, last Monday the weekly index was already +1.9C).  But probably it won't be sustained long enough for the 3-monthly index. 

Maybe (probably) this was the peak for Nino 3.4 for this El Nino event?

[kassy]

Why would it be? EN can build up through the new year. My guess would be that that is so because of southern hemisphere summer. So not sure if it is the peak.

[Steven]

Why would it be? EN can build up through the new year. My guess would be that that is so because of southern hemisphere summer. So not sure if it is the peak.

Maybe (hence the question mark above).  But I guess that would require more WWBs near 120-180°W to sustain the high values of the Nino 3.4 index.  We'll see.

Meanwhile the weekly Nino 3.4 index came in at +2.1°C according to NOAA.

[morganism]

(I am seeing some talk of major cooling off SA right now, and the fact that GSM model forecast going to neutral by end of year. )


Spot On Weather @eulermatthew4  Dec 5
What is going on in Nino 1+2 region?  Why such dramatic cooling?

No longer east based Nino. Idk why people keep claiming this. But its not modoki as well.

Spot On Weather @eulermatthew Dec 5
Correct, the NMME SST Anomaly forecast is nailing it!  That model has been showing a hybrid El Nino for a couple of months now.

https://nitter.poast.org/eulermatthew4/status/1731853462101483977#m



Met4Cast.
@Met4CastUK
Dec 3
As expected we have a +EAMT event underway.

Essentially, +Mountain Torque takes momentum from the earths orbit & dumps it into the atmosphere, in this case, the Pacific jet.

The jet extends east causing large wave-breaking events which ripple downstream. LATE DECEMBER COLD!

(gonna be wild!)

[Sigmetnow]

Signs of the atmosphere setting up for major storms striking the west coast of the US

Jason D Farhang ⁦‪
 
Friday, December 8, 2023, 6:51 PM PDT: Latest solutions are trending now that we might’ve woken up the bear of El Niño.

Something to continue to watch very closely in the next several days as this is a developing situation that is unfolding. I don’t wanna hear anyone complain about rain ever again. you asked for it you’re going to get it. If it continues to verify, this could be quite an interesting situation developing. #ElNino

12/8/23, 9:54 PM  https://x.com/jason61987/status/1733319227514479094
⬇️ First image below from:   pic.twitter.com/FMFMyAUyCl 
 
< Would be a great opportunity for farmers to fill their catchment basins. Everyone complains about wasted water going to the sea, but that cleans out a lot of rivers and streams which improves fish habitats. We’ve also got lots of rain only reservoirs.
<< It’ll be really interesting to see the effects on the western US reservoirs after this goes through. It’s early enough in the season that a lot of this will come down in rain versus snow. 
Having the reservoirs all topped off before January rolls around, could make for an interesting scenario if another heavy snowfall winter occurs

 

Ronald Martinez ⁦‪@CAStormLover‬⁩
 
4 different models, are in excellent agreement on a much wetter pattern later this month for California. A Pacific Jet is set to take shape by the end of this month and sweep across the North Pacific. The signal could not be more clear, widespread agreement among models. #CAwx #WxTwitter

12/10/23, 7:48 PM  https://x.com/castormlover/status/1734012312435245476
⬇️ 1 map is attached below; more at:  ➡️ pic.twitter.com/LYplQnur0S 

[Sigmetnow]

Southern California

SoCalWeather.net
⁦‪Interesting long range map from GFS computer showing 3-6"+ [76 - 150+ mm] of rain over most of SoCal through the 27th. Perfect example how just a couple major storms can drastically change the course of a Wet season in SoCal. Tropical storm Hillary was another example.
12/11/23, 1:44 PM  https://x.com/socalweathernet/status/1734283009011130752

[Sigmetnow]

J. Mesh, AMS 🇺🇸
Followers - Happy Monday! Hope all of you are safe and healthy. I was out of pocket most of the weekend, so sorry for the delay releasing an update. Below are some highlights of what I see and what the weather trends look like to finish out the year in CA:
 
 - The weather porn is epic, as the chatter on social media is the Eastern Asian Jet is going to extend into the West and CA and pound the areas into submission with rain/snow. 
 - Now, let’s come back from La La Land folks. First, every single pattern change in the long range from the past 2 months,  has flipped to a drier forecast and/or trended drier.  Will this pattern change 2 weeks out be the same? …

Lengthy write-up, with charts, continues at:  https://x.com/realwxforecast/status/1734308671356813480
 

Folks - one postscript. I don't think I have ever seen an 8-14 day forecast from @NWSCPC, with the whole country above average temps in December thru the holidays. Insane! 65 degrees in NYC on XMAS?? Now they are showing the rain coming into CA in the extended, so something to watch. Is this the cut-off low, or the EAJ? Now is rated 4 out of 5, so confidence is high...I repeat confidence is high. Time will tell what shakes out....

12/11/23, 5:00 PM  https://x.com/realwxforecast/status/1734332409829880097
 ⬇️

[kiwichick16]

will Americans living in northern parts of the country be surprised, upset, shocked , if they dont get a White Xmas ?

[gerontocrat]

CPC monthly ENSO update.....

more graphs on next post

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
14 December 2023
 
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

 
Synopsis:  El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (60% chance).

Sea surface temperatures (SST) were above average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1], increasing in the central and east-central Pacific during November. The growth in SST anomalies, however, abated in early December, with the latest weekly Niño index values at +1.4°C in Niño-4, +1.9°C in Niño-3.4, +2.0°C in Niño-3, and +1.3°C in Niño-1+2 [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased significantly during November [Fig. 3], reflecting the strengthening of above-average subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific associated with a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly in the central and eastern Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly across the Pacific. Convection/rainfall remained enhanced at the Date Line and was suppressed around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the station-based SOI were negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strong El Niño.

The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Based on the latest forecasts, there is now a 54% chance of a "historically strong" El Niño during the November-January season (≥ 2.0°C in Niño-3.4). An event of this strength would potentially be in the top 5 of El Niño events since 1950. While stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, it does not imply expected impacts will emerge in all locations or be of strong intensity (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (60% chance; [Fig. 7]).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 January 2024.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[gerontocrat]

CPC monthly ENSO update.....

more graphs

[Steven]

The daily Nino 3.4 index has been increasing again in the last few weeks, during another round of westerly wind bursts (starting near the international dateline and moving east the last few days).  It's still a bit below the November peak.

[gerontocrat]

CPC monthly ENSO update Jan 11 2024.....
CPC reckon it has peaked.

more graphs on next post

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
11 January 2024
 
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

 
Synopsis:  El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance).

Above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the largest anomalies observed in the central and east-central Pacific [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño index values remained at +1.4°C in Niño-4, +1.9°C in Niño-3.4, and +2.0°C in Niño-3, while Niño-1+2 weakened to +1.0°C [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged positive subsurface temperature anomalies decreased in December [Fig. 3], reflecting the strengthening and eastward expansion of below-average subsurface temperatures in the western Pacific [Fig. 4]. Over the east-central Pacific Ocean, low-level wind anomalies were westerly, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly. Convection/rainfall remained enhanced at the Date Line and was suppressed around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The equatorial and station-based SOI were negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strong and mature El Niño.

The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will gradually weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024 [Fig. 6]. Some state-of the-art dynamical climate models suggest a transition to ENSO-neutral as soon as March-May 2024. The forecast team, however, delays this timing and strongly favors a transition to ENSO-neutral in April-June 2024. There are also increasing odds of La Niña in the seasons following a shift to ENSO-neutral. It is typical for El Niño to peak in December/early January, but despite weakening, its impacts on the United States could last through April (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance; [Fig. 7]).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 February 2024.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[gerontocrat]

CPC monthly ENSO update Jan 11 2024..... more graphs

[Rodius]

How weird is it that La Nina goes on for 2 odd years, then straight into a El Nino that straight back to La Nina?

[Renerpho]

How weird is it that La Nina goes on for 2 odd years, then straight into a El Nino that straight back to La Nina?

Not weird at all. Last happened in 2010 and 1988.

[kiwichick16]

isn't weird going to be par for the course , going forward ?

[HapHazard]

If weird is par for the course then it's not weird it's normal. Normally. Kinda weird.

[kassy]

It does go via ENSO neutral in between.

[gerontocrat]

It's a forecast - & remember the "Spring Barrier" that makes such forecasts more difficult and less reliable.

[Renerpho]

Quite a dramatic decrease in SST's in the eastern Pacific over the past week. The beginning of the end of the current El Niño?

Niño 3.4 anomalies, measured further to the west, are remaining stable (for now), as does Niño1+2.