AGW in general > Consequences

Global Dimming - The aerosol masking effect

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harpy:
There's a number of published papers demonstrating that the removal of the aerosol masking effect, AKA global dimming, will result in a rapid increase in global average temperature.  Above our current level, within a short period of time (weeks to months).

Depending on the reference, the figures apparently range from approximately 1C-3C of global average temperature rise is being "masked" by aerosol particulates in the atmosphere. 

Below are a number of peer-reviewed articles, and essays that focus exclusively on this subject, and propose varying numbers for the aerosol masking effect.

Hansen's 2011 Paper entitled, Earth's energy imbalance and implications informs us of a 1C global average temperature is not being fully realized due to the aerosol masking effect.

References:

Earth's energy imbalance and implications  https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha06510a.html

Cooling from atmospheric particles may mask greater warming  https://www.sustainability-times.com/environmental-protection/research-cooling-from-atmospheric-particles-may-mask-greater-warming/

The roles of aerosol direct and indirect effects in past and future climate change
 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jgrd.50192

Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low-level clouds
 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6427/eaav0566

The Aerosol Masking Effect: A Brief Overview  The Aerosol Masking Effect: A Brief Overview

Ken Feldman:
Harpy,

There's a forum in the Science section about aerosols.  We've shared many papers on the subject.

Recently, someone went to a talk by a scientist specializing in aerosols and asked about the warming that would occur if we stopped producing man-made aerosols suddenly.


--- Quote from: Ktb on September 05, 2019, 01:31:42 AM ---
--- Quote from: Ken Feldman on September 04, 2019, 11:15:55 PM ---
Did the question about a possible spike in warming from reduced aerosols with the reduction in fossil fuel burning come up?  If so, what was the answer?

--- End quote ---

Yes, I actually asked about Hansen et al.'s 2013 paper on aerosol masking, and the effect that immediately stopping production of sulfates via oil/coal/etc. Dr. Haywood said he respected Dr. Hansen, but believed that the warming effect would not be as great or as rapid as Hansen described. Additionally, Dr. Haywood said that sulfates would be replaced with other aerosols that occur naturally, the names of which escape me.

--- End quote ---

harpy:

--- Quote from: Ken Feldman on October 11, 2019, 08:12:34 PM ---Harpy,

There's a forum in the Science section about aerosols.  We've shared many papers on the subject.

Recently, someone went to a talk by a scientist specializing in aerosols and asked about the warming that would occur if we stopped producing man-made aerosols suddenly.


--- Quote from: Ktb on September 05, 2019, 01:31:42 AM ---
--- Quote from: Ken Feldman on September 04, 2019, 11:15:55 PM ---
Did the question about a possible spike in warming from reduced aerosols with the reduction in fossil fuel burning come up?  If so, what was the answer?

--- End quote ---

Yes, I actually asked about Hansen et al.'s 2013 paper on aerosol masking, and the effect that immediately stopping production of sulfates via oil/coal/etc. Dr. Haywood said he respected Dr. Hansen, but believed that the warming effect would not be as great or as rapid as Hansen described. Additionally, Dr. Haywood said that sulfates would be replaced with other aerosols that occur naturally, the names of which escape me.

--- End quote ---

--- End quote ---

That's not even the correct year of Hansen's paper. 

TerryM:
^^
Good catch ;)
Terry

sidd:
Re: Hansen, aerosol forcing, 2013

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2 , technically in published 2012, but has extensive discussion of aerosol effect

Hansen and Sato, Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change, A. Berger et al. (eds.), Climate Change, Springer-Verlag Wien 2012

2013 was his royal society paper too, but the one cited above has better review of aerosol.

sidd

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