Policy and solutions in the Netherlands

[kassy]

I think it will be interesting to report on the current situation in the Netherlands.

For a long time we were not really doing to much to help the climate. Politicians preferred paper solutions to real hard caps because well that is easier for them. Then someone fought the specific law and the law in general won.

1 Nitrogen policy

A while ago, around 2015 IIRC they had to craft a new law to protect nature from nitrogen pollution. This was required because of a European Union law that had to be translated into national law.

Our genius politicians wrote a law were current emissions were compensated by fictitious future gains in controlling the pollution. This would not work as the EU law states that you actually have to do something and that is not the same as kicking the can down the road. We have some institute that advises about laws and they said then that the law was not good enough but it still got voted into an official law.

A lawsuit followed and off course the dutch government lost.

The courts decision meant that most nitrogen permits for building were invalid.
This meant that all kind of building projects can not start so this costs tons of money.

And the real solution is not easy.

They appointed a commission with Remkes as chairman. He is VVD (right liberals, dominant party now) and a former interior minister.

Some of the proposed solutions they came up with:
1) Big reduction in cattle breeding. We are very big in this. Worldwide number 2 exporter for some products which is ridiculous since we are so small. Or if you look at it in a different way that means we are hugely succesfull and efficient at it. It also makes us a lot of money.

Meausures could include buy outs of the less efficient (old) farms.

The farmers felt threatened so they went to the Hague to protest on the Malieveld (veld is field and malie is an old game, it is basically croquet-field and now the place were big protests go).

The CDA our christian centrist party which is also the traditional farmers party and the one with the minister of agriculture hated this off course.

2) A reduction of the speed limit. It is (or was but we get to that next post) 130 km/h for no good reason and reducing it is a sore point for the VVD. They got to raise the speedlimit as a reward for an election victory while it only costs money for new signs and killed some more people and contributed to more congestion overall. Lowering it is seen as a defeat. They should just frame it as finally doing something sensible.

Some weeks ago the construction workers also collected at the Malieveld for a demonstration.  And since not building costs a lot of money and leads to big problems later since much of the projects are for sorely needed housing something needed to be done. And they did lower the speed but more about that in the next post.

*

Just lowering the speed limit is probably not enough so we will have to do something with farming too.

But there are many other developments at the same time.

2

The court case of the kids vs the dutch government is in the appeal stage. Dutch government lost the first round. They are appealing because they think they need some freedom to solve issues. You can read above how well that goes so it would be nice if they lose the appeal too.

Currently i have no idea about the timeline off that.

3

Closing the gas fields.

After years of extraction the earthquake damage in Groningen lead to the early closure of the big gas fields. This means we will have to compensate (NAM is already scouting small fields) and we will have to change much of our infrastructure. Basically almost everyone is on the gas net and we use it for heating and cooking.

We will have to build the new houses differently and we have to adapt many of the old ones.

There will be test areas and one of them should be near me.

4 Something with PFAS 

This is sort of the same problem as the nitrogen thing with a EU law an a local norm iirc but i will get back to that.

5) Adapting the grid

The grid is built to where the power was needed historically which means that it is not strong enough in the periphal regions to tie up all solar projects that people want to develop.

*

I have quite a collection of newspaper articles and reactions by the readers so i will have to sort them by time and by issue.

All kinds of interesting things pop up. For example at the german side of the border they get a subsidy to convert from coal to gas while on the dutch side we are removing the gas.

It will be interesting to see how the debate goes in this stamp of a country.
Plenty of action (hopefully helpful) up ahead.


 

[kassy]

Speeds limits are set to be reduced by almost 20mph on Dutch roads in an attempt to cut emissions, the Netherlands’ government has said.

From 2020 the current the current top speed of 81mph (130kph) will be reduced to to 62mph (100kph) between 6am and 7pm.

Overnight however, the old limit will remain in place.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/netherlands-national-speed-climate-change-crisis-pollution-a9201051.html

So this is a pill to swallow for the VVD. It is not nearly enough so there will also be measures to reduce cattle farming. Taking out the most inefficient ones should be a no brainer. Then again even more might be needed.

*

Long ago the maximum speed was 100 km/h on highways then it became 120 in the late eighties. In 2012 that became 130.

If you would drive from north groningen into the boot of Limburg that would be 260 km maybe. And not all roads are with that speed limit i think. The whole 120 to 130 change never made sense.

You spend money on new signs. People can drive a bit faster which ultimately leads to more deaths by worse accidents and more pollution for those living next to the road.

All driving 100 km/h should solve a bit of our congestion problem because it reduces the speed difference quite a lot.

It is a pity that they did not make the limit absolute but the VVD needs a bit of face saving here.
Not a total rout, just a practical one.

EDIT

"De ideale snelheid is 95 kilometer per uur. Dan is de wegbenutting optimaal. Als je langzamer gaat rijden, gebruik je de wegcapaciteit niet optimaal. Als je sneller rijdt, zorgt het voor meer opstoppingen, omdat je automatisch meer afstand neemt als je harder gaat en er dus minder auto's op de weg passen."

The ideal speed is 95 km/h. At that point the use of the road is optimal. If you are slower you are missing capacity, if you are quicker there are more congestions due to a bigger distance between cars so less fit on the road.

https://www.nu.nl/binnenland/5998958/verkeerskundigen-sneller-thuis-bij-verlaging-maximumsnelheid.html

[El Cid]

I think you should rename this thread to "Policy and solutions FOR the Netherlands", because by 2100 there will be no Netherlands. One third of your country is already under the sea level. If I were you I started packing. Seriously, real estate values by 2050 in one half of your country (the low part) will collapse, and the other half will go up (as everyone is going to move there)

[NeilT]

The Dutch are very good at water engineering.  They recognised the need to barricade off inland and Channel the water through to the sea more than 2 decades ago.

Also the Netherlands has a flourishing market in floating houses. I worked in an ABN datacentre, which was already floating, back in 2000.

[El Cid]

Also the Netherlands has a flourishing market in floating houses. I worked in an ABN datacentre, which was already floating, back in 2000.

All right then, problem solved

[Sigmetnow]

Netherlands is a top supporter of electric vehicles, on par with Norway.  Recently the Tesla Model 3 became the best-selling passenger car of any type in the country, beating the gas-powered VW Polo. 

I find the Danish government has said it wants to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 and hybrid vehicles from 2035, but Amsterdam city has taken even more aggressive action:

Cars and motorbikes running on petrol or diesel will be banned from driving in Amsterdam from 2030. …
From next year, diesel cars that are 15 years or older will be banned from going within the A10 ring road around the Dutch capital.

Public buses and coaches that emit exhaust fumes will no longer enter the city centre from 2022. By 2025, the ban will be extended to pleasure crafts on its waters, mopeds and light mopeds.  All traffic within the built-up area must be emission-free by 2030 under the Clean Air Action plan.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/03/amsterdam-ban-petrol-diesel-cars-bikes-2030

September: One Fifth Of Car Sales In The Netherlands Were Plug-Ins
https://insideevs.com/news/375048/september-one-fifth-car-sales-netherlands-plugins/

Tesla Model 3 Is Now #1 Selling Car In The Netherlands
https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2019/09/18/tesla-model-3-top-selling-car-netherlands-2/

[be cause]

One hell of a lot of emissions needed to go 'emission free' .. b.c.

[nanning]

Thank you for that view b.c.

[kassy]

In this case it is mostly about the journey being interesting.

A little background on CO2 from traffic. This should improve next year with the lower speeds and better traffic flow that should provide.

Het wegverkeer was in 2018 verantwoordelijk voor 17 procent van de totale hoeveelheid kooldioxide (CO2) die in Nederland werd uitgestoten, blijkt uit cijfers van het Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS).

De totale CO2-uitstoot van het wegverkeer in 2018 lag ruim 2 procent hoger dan een jaar eerder. Vergeleken met 1990 is de uitstoot met ruim 28 procent toegenomen.

Personenauto's namen 62 procent van de CO2-uitstoot van het wegverkeer voor hun rekening. Zware vrachtvoertuigen en bussen waren verantwoordelijk voor 20 procent.

https://www.nu.nl/binnenland/6011057/wegverkeer-verantwoordelijk-voor-17-procent-van-co2-uitstoot-in-2018.html

Dutch traffic in 2018 was responsible for 17% of dutch CO2 emissions.
This was 2% up from 2017 and 28% up compared to 1990.

Breakdown to car type:
62% personal cars
20% heavy trucks and buses.

I guess the other 18% are the small vans and cabs.

The article also mentions the kids vs gov case.

Voor het einde van volgend jaar wordt 23 procent minder broeikasgassen - waarvan CO2 het belangrijkste gas is - uitgestoten ten opzichte van ijkjaar 1990. Om aan de uitspraak van de Urgenda-zaak te voldoen, moet de afname minstens 25 procent zijn.

Duurzaamheidsorganisatie Urgenda dwong de overheid in 2015 via een rechtszaak zich te houden aan het zelfopgelegde klimaatdoel om in 2020 minimaal een kwart minder CO2 uit te stoten ten opzichte van 1990. Dit is een afspraak uit het in 2013 gesloten Energieakkoord.

So in 2013 the dutch government committed to emit 25% less greenhouse gasses in 2020 then in 1990. Then failed to actually do that and got taken to court.

The predicted value for the end of next year is 23%.

They should buy out a whole lot of cattle farmers quickly. The most inefficient ones in general and anything that is not up to standards near the nature areas because distance seems important there. This is due to the model they use (will get back to that in a later post). Depending on the pattern you might be able to salvage some areas by closing enough nearby sources.

If you then plan forwards and extend the nature areas there you keep on capturing carbon.

Probably won´t be our governments solution but we will see.

[Neven]

Thanks for this topic. I left the Netherlands with my family almost 12 years ago, climate change and the way it is handled/talked about being one of the reasons. I stopped reading Dutch news a while back as well, so it's nice to have an overview of the current situation.

[kassy]

Your welcome.

The nice thing about the current situation is that the government has finally been forced to act.
Much of the debate is ofc still cringe-worthy.

A VVD member suggested to cut down the number of nature reserves which is maybe not possible but that depends on EU law which i don´t know the specifics of. And some guy wrote in a letter to the newspaper that ´Since the judges now tell the government what to do the separation of powers (trias politica) has clearly failed.´

*

In Drenthe, Groningen en Zuid-Holland gaan vijftig waterstofbussen rijden in het openbaar vervoer.

...

Op een volle tank kan een bus 400 kilometer afleggen.

"Nu zijn er nog weinig tankstations voor waterstof, maar dat is natuurlijk een kip-eiverhaal. Deze vijftig bussen gaan straks allemaal tanken. Dat kan net het zetje in de rug zijn dat rijden op waterstof nodig heeft", aldus de minister.

Op dit moment rijden in Nederland acht bussen op waterstof. In totaal zijn er zo'n vijfhonderd bussen die rondrijden in Nederland zonder emissies uit te stoten.

De overheid heeft als doelstelling dat na 2025 elke nieuwe bus emissievrij gaat rijden en vanaf 2030 moeten alle bussen in het openbaar vervoer emissievrij rijden.

https://www.nu.nl/economie/6012199/kabinet-en-provincies-investeren-in-vijftig-waterstofbussen-voor-ov.html

50 hydrogen powered buses will be deployed in Drenthe, Groningen and Zuid-Holland

Map here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_the_Netherlands

The bus runs 400 km on a full tank.
There are very few hydrogen stations and they hope this will help build up the network.

Currently we have
8 hydrogen buses
about 500 emission free buses , so electric ones.

Current targets:
2025 every new bus needs to be emission free
2030 whole fleet should be emission free

Costs are 22,5 million euros but i have no idea what the worth of the same contract for old dirty buses would be. No mentions of specific investments in the hydrogen stations but it would be logical to put them at the bus stations (the depot one).

[kassy]

A request for our german members.

Recently there was a vote on the maximum speed on german roads and that got voted down.
What was the background of this vote and why did the vote go the way it went?

Also.

We are changing from gas to electric while currently the area next to the dutch border is transitioning to gas. Is nat gas just a (temporary) solution for the areas using coal? What is your national energy transition policy?

Thanks in advance!

[GrauerMausling]

A request for our german members.

Recently there was a vote on the maximum speed on german roads and that got voted down.
What was the background of this vote and why did the vote go the way it went?

Also.

We are changing from gas to electric while currently the area next to the dutch border is transitioning to gas. Is nat gas just a (temporary) solution for the areas using coal? What is your national energy transition policy?

Thanks in advance!

For the speed limit, that was a bill introduced by the Green Party and was voted down by the 'Große Koalition' that is the three parties forming the government (CDU/CSU and SPD) plus the FDP (liberal democrats) and of course the AFD, the right wing (or extremist) party which is denying climate change anyway.
The speed limit in Germany is something like guns in the US. I have got the impression that although probably a majority would support a speed limit - there a some polls indicating this - that the opponents are far more outspoken (not sure it this is the correct term). They dominate the public discussions and forums.
Our minister for transport commented on one study which promoted a speed limit, that a speed limit is against 'common sense'.....

For the transition to renewables, I don't see any plan at all, installation of new windmills is dropping like a stone, I think it is -80 % this year compared to the best years, new legislation is making it even harder to find a new place for a windmill as it has to have a minimum distance of 1000 m to the next 'community' which is a group of at least 5 houses. For off-shore wind the building of new power lines is still slow and private PV is still a disaster as it involves a lot of tax issues - usually you have to become an entrepreneur to install PV and feed the surplus electricity into the grid.

So, I in my opinion the current policies in Germany are really, really bad!

[TerryM]

^^
Great post - and "outspoken" is precisely the correct term.
Terry

[El Cid]

...... Is nat gas just a (temporary) solution for the areas using coal?

It never is, it never can be. Building the necessary infrastructure is a huge investment which is not planned for just a few yeasr and once it is built, people will use gas (it is very cheap and convenient) for decades! electricity is much more expensive for heating. once you have gas you are stuck with it

[RikW]

Well, in the Netherlands we are going off-grid with gas.

If I remember correctly since a couple of years it isn't obligated anymore when building a new houses to connect it to the gas-grid and in 2050 the gas-grid should be gone and everything should be done electric. So the gas network will be written off in 30 years.

Though it's weird our neighbours (germany f.e.) are transition to gas - which is better than what they currently have, but still weird.

We have too much people for the area of land we have/ are too efficient in using things/ are too rich compared to other countries thus our emissions are relative high, even though we are also relative clean. And the focus is too much on nations and not on continents/globally.

When we close steel factories in IJmuiden and the coal-power-plants, our emissions drop significant, but global emissions will probably be rise, because we need to buy our energy elsewhere and there still is demand for steel.

So I want us to give the good example and take action, but it shouldn't make the global situation worse. So which is the lesser evil to choose from? Do nothing or do something, but increase global emissions...

[kassy]

Thanks GrauerMausling...it´s only slightly worse then i thought... 

And RikW yes it is very complicated so it is interesting to see what solutions will come up.

It would be great if the EU actually made up some really sensible policies but so far they have failed. Allowing burning biomass to be counted as green fuel is wrong.
A case could be made for a select group of biomass to be used, lets say the part of municipal green maintenance waste that you can´t compost or use otherwise but that should be a small stream.

Of course this is a ploy to use the old plants.
It serves someones interest but not that of the planet or the interest of the people in the Netherlands. Sadly our politicians are still stuck in the past.

Wiebes snapt zorgen over biomassa, maar vindt energiebron verdedigbaar

...

Het komende jaar steekt het kabinet in totaal 11,4 miljard euro aan subsidie in biomassacentrales die belangrijk zijn voor het bereiken van de klimaatdoelen. Maar er bestaan veel vragen over de mate van duurzaamheid en de bijkomende luchtvervuiling.

"Hoe voorkomen we dat we biomassacentrales subsidiëren die niet duurzaam zijn?", vroeg D66-Kamerlid Matthijs Sienot aan Wiebes. Nu kunnen namelijk biomassacentrales zonder vergunningen en normen worden gebouwd voor de verwarming van bijvoorbeeld zwembaden of voor kleine wijken van zo'n twaalfduizend huizen.

...

Die centrales stoten CO2, stikstof en fijnstof uit. Dus met die duurzaamheid valt het wel mee, vindt D66.

...

Volgens Wiebes is er onder wetenschappers consensus dat biomassa nodig is om de klimaatdoelen te halen.

...

Onlangs kondigde Wiebes aan dat de subsidie voor de kleinere biomassaketels en pelletkachels vanaf volgend jaar wordt beëindigd. Het idee was om zo minder broeikasgassen uit te stoten, maar de luchtkwaliteit lijdt er te veel onder.

Overigens wees Wiebes er in het debat nog op dat barbecues en open haarden de grootste luchtvervuilers zijn. "Maar daar durft niemand zijn handen politiek aan te branden."

https://www.nu.nl/politiek/6012416/wiebes-snapt-zorgen-over-biomassa-maar-vindt-energiebron-verdedigbaar.html

I guess they had a debate.

We are about to invest 11,4 billion euros into subsidies for biomass while it causes particulate pollution and does not help the co2 problem either.

At the moments biomass burning plants can be build without permits or specific norms for heating swimming pools or up to 12000 houses.

Wiebes says there is a concensus among scientists that biomass burning is needed to hit the climate targets. (Bet there is some selective shopping there, you could try some ambition & empathy with the future generations, K ).

Next year the subsidy for small biomass kettles and pellet heaters will be removed. The idea of the subsidy was to decrease greenhouse gas emissions but it increased particulate matter pollution too much.

BBQs and open hearth are the biggest PM polluters but no one wants to make laws for those because it is political suicide.

...so that´s not to hopeful. Lets hope we get some severe restrictions on the type of biomass but i am not counting on that because there is so much they need to do and as ever they prefer the easy way out.

[Rob Dekker]

Thank you Kassy and RikW on giving your perspective on the Dutch policies regarding AGW.
I now live in live in California for the past 28 years, but I was born an raised in the Netherlands, and my heart will always be in the low lands.

I remember Holland being a pragmatic nation, no-nonsense, two feet on the ground, finding innovative solutions for real problems, in many ways similar to the line of thinking here in California.

But when RikW writes this here, I start to have some doubts :

Well, in the Netherlands we are going off-grid with gas.

If I remember correctly since a couple of years it isn't obligated anymore when building a new houses to connect it to the gas-grid and in 2050 the gas-grid should be gone and everything should be done electric. So the gas network will be written off in 30 years.

Heating homes with electricity ?
This does not seem smart at all, especially since most electricity in the Netherlands is still generated from ... wait for it ... natural gas !

So who came up with this idea to eliminate the "gas-grid" in the Netherlands ?

[TerryM]

FWIW
Southern California and Las Vegas shut down fireplaces decades ago because of the particulate problems, (and an inversion layer) I don't recall much political blowback.


Good luck with the biomass, so many seem blinded to the emissions & it's the same with wood/pellets.
Terry

[Neven]

IMO, if a house is well-insulated, it's fine to use electricity or biomass to heat it.

And the good thing about a gas grid, is that you can use it to store energy in it. There was talk about doing this in Germany, but I don't know if it's still a thing.

[kassy]

So who came up with this idea to eliminate the "gas-grid" in the Netherlands ?

We are winding down the exploitation of some big gas fields sooner then planned because they cause earthquakes and damage to houses in the Groningen area. From 2018 on we import more gas then we export.

As you can see there is quite a lot of bad energy sources that will need to be replaced:
https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2019/16/energieverbruik-gedaald-in-2018

It is not going to be easy but we cannot turn back.

It will be interesting to see what we will do with the old gas grid. We will use the places where the grid needs to be serviced due to age as areas to change to the future style housing first. One such area is part of Overvecht in Utrecht but that is only a proposal now, albeit a good one. It is one of the few test areas in big cties and thus a good learning experience.

Parts of the gas grid might be repurposed possibly for hydrogen but i think those plans are very much in their infancy. 

[blumenkraft]

outspoken (not sure it this is the correct term).

Well, not a native speaker myself either but wouldn't that imply some kind of substance to the arguments?

I would replace 'outspoken' with 'lound'.

Ansonsten i agree.

[pietkuip]

The Netherlands should work on adaptation.

Sea level rise is probably the most pressing problem. There is growing awareness: the weekly Vrij Nederland had an article earlier this year, also in English, with interesting maps for the year 2300.

One proposal there is to teach more German in school.

But the Dutch still seem to be underestimating the problem. What if there is no power for the pumps? What if Antarctic ice cliffs start to collapse?

[nanning]

But the Dutch still seem to be underestimating the problem.

That is an understatement .

Not so long ago we still had leadership, ideals and long term views such as "Deltawerken".

[What is the problem]

Sea level rise in the Netherlands is constant in the last 128 years (https://www.clo.nl/indicatoren/nl0229-zeespiegelstand-nederland-en-mondiaal). NO acceleration. Sea level rise was 1.9 mm per year of which 0.2 mm subsidence.
These measurements are considered very accurate and in my opinion better then general worldwide measurements / estimates. Expectation of a 10 mm rise or more per year until the end of the century is highly speculative and not based on any data.

[Rob Dekker]

So who came up with this idea to eliminate the "gas-grid" in the Netherlands ?

We are winding down the exploitation of some big gas fields sooner then planned because they cause earthquakes and damage to houses in the Groningen area. From 2018 on we import more gas then we export.

As you can see there is quite a lot of bad energy sources that will need to be replaced:
https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2019/16/energieverbruik-gedaald-in-2018

Exactly.

Natural gas is ideal (near 100% efficient) for heating so that would be the LAST thing to replace. Not the first !

I mean, if you want to reduce carbon emissions, then you should start replacing the least efficient, heavy stuff (coal for electricity generation) first, and the medium stuff (oil for transportation, natural gas for electricity) next, before you get to replace the most efficient, lightest stuff (nat gas for heating).

Your graph of Netherlands energy use (shown below) shows that your "overige energiedragers" (which is everything non-fossil) in 30 years did not even grow as large as you are still powering with coal today !

So I think the Netherlands needs to get serious about getting a lot of "overige energiedragers" (wind, biomass, nuclear, solar) online before you should be talking about shutting down your gas fields which the Netherlands completely depends on right now.

But that's just my opinion.

[TerryM]

While I was aware that the Netherlands was cutting gas exports, I'd no idea that they were now net importers. Will all gas production end, or only the portion that is for export?


Is the import of both electricity & gas expected to continue indefinitely? Are the electrical imports vetted as being relatively "clean", or is it more a case of purchasing whatever surplus is available at the time that electricity is required?


In the depths of winter natural gas can be an efficient heat source.
Terry

[kassy]

2030 was already the end date for the gas field. This has now been pulled forward to mid 2022.

The field will not be dismantled so we can use it if needed in a very cold winter in the 2020s.

At least we acknowledged that we cannot use this resource for much longer then 2030 for a long time. On paper we were committed but nothing much happened but increased earthquake damage forced the politicians hand...then again russian nat gas should be coming soon and that could have factored in but it is not something they talk about.

[kassy]

Varkenshouders in het zuiden van het land krijgen als ze overgaan op sanering veel meer geld per varken dan bedrijven in het oosten. De subsidieregeling voor het uitkopen van varkensboeren, 'warme sanering' genoemd, is in het leven geroepen om de stankoverlast en stikstofuitstoot van de sector te verminderen. Het ministerie van Landbouw maakte de tarieven van de subsidieregeling donderdag bekend.

Iemand die in het zuiden van het land tot sanering overgaat, ontvangt 151 euro per varken. In het oosten van het land ligt de vergoeding per varken een stuk lager: op 52 euro. De vergoeding per varken is berekend door Wageningen University & Research.

De reden voor het grote verschil in prijs per varken is een verschil in vraag en aanbod: in het oosten kan een varkenshouder nog volop varkensrechten kopen, in het zuiden zijn ze juist nog amper te krijgen. Het is voor boeren niet mogelijk om varkensrechten uit de andere regio te kopen.

https://www.nu.nl/economie/6012556/varkenshouder-in-het-zuiden-krijgt-bij-sanering-veel-meer-geld-per-varken.html

also see
https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/veehouderij/duurzame-varkenshouderij/subsidieregeling-sanering-varkenshouderij

180 million euros are reserved for a buy out of pig farmers. The program is voluntary and the compensation depends on which of the two main areas the farmer is in. The prize in the south is higher because you cannot buy new pig farming rights for the area.

The aim is to reduce nitrogen emissions and smell problems too.

[TerryM]

^^
That's an amazing loss of quality protein!
What is expected to fill the gap. What source would emit fewer emissions, and what will it taste like?
Won't prices for pork spike? What will the less affluent eat?


I'm amazed, and somehow disturbed.
I need more time to consider this.
Terry

[nanning]

I think we are here discussing another highly intelligent social mammal. My sensitive morality toe plays up again, giving me signals. 


Bruce, these industrial pig 'farms' are not comparable to your farm.

[Bruce Steele]

I am lucky that I can keep the pigs outdoors , even during the rain season the pigs can get under cover or go out in the mud. But rain season is short and it all dries out and honestly it doesn’t smell like a hog barn confinement farm.. Keeping pigs indoors is a stinky business .
 I have about a dozen sows ready to farrow and so I maintain a vigil going out at 11:00pm then 4:00am to check on them and turn on lights for heat when the piggies arrive. It is the only time the sows get a shed to sleep in but they can go in or out when they want till the piggies come off their nest. The sheds don’t stink cause the pigs know their bed isn’t a toilet.
 Around here farmers don’t have anything like “ pig growing rights “ or permits necessary to grow pigs because the economics make it about impossible to be a pig farmer. No profit, problem solved. Marketing a very rare pig into ethnic markets in Los Angeles and the west coast means I can sell into niche markets at high prices. Otherwise pigs in Calif. come from Iowa or somewhere with corn, soy and cheap labor.  The Netherlands will import their pork , export the smell and methane issues, and increase the carbon costs of transport. There may not be crops profitable enough to replace the pig businesses and in the end you will have fewer farmers also.
 If more people kept a couple pigs , a garden, and an orchard in their backyard it would obviate many of the “ moral “ concerns about confinement farms. We have chosen to keep our hands clean but our farm animals have suffered without a kind hand to keep them. 
 
 
 

[nanning]

Wow Bruce, thank you very much my friend for that information and advise .

"I am lucky that I can keep the pigs outdoors"
I think especially the pigs are lucky being kept by someone like you.

A second thanks for giving them a relatively (in captivity) good life. I really mean that Bruce because I have strong feelings concerning the destiny of a pig.

[TerryM]

I'm very fortunate for having a small pork producer that sells at a farmers market just blocks from my door. His pigs are (lovingly)? cared for with access to the outdoors should they desire it. He keeps pig families together as matriarchies until the day when all the siblings go squealing into the night.
He offers tours of his facilities, and though I haven't taken the tour others have told me that the photos on his fliers are representative.


In the past I've stayed with two different families that kept pigs as pets, and eventually as food. They were clean, no more odor than a dog, and their personalities resembled that of outdoor dogs.


Nice companions
Terry


Are the GHGs emitted really a matter of concern? I'm aware of the problems that cattle present, but this is the first I'd heard of pig emissions.

[Bruce Steele]

Terry, I think it is whether you have anaerobic or aerobic conditions . Ponds or wallows or any wet area will get nasty cause pigs pee in the wallow. So you need to dry out the wallow and move it around. If everything is wet all the time you will have problems. Stinky problems which are in part methane .
 I bet this is useless information ! 

[TerryM]

^^
Only in the sense that I've a broad, if not particularly up to date understanding, particularly regarding anaerobic digestion.


Both of the "pet" pig families I knew were on hobby farms with no standing water or streams. Sandy soils both in Southern California & in Southern Oregon precluded wallows, I recall the one in Oregon (George by name) regularly frisking and rolling in the sand. The pork producer here has a traditional Mennonite farm, most of which have had any naturally swampy areas and boggy patches drained a hundred years ago.


While Methane has no odor, other products of both aerobic and anaerobic digestion certainly do.


I assume you've looked up some of the sites with DIY instructions for methane capture, and found them wanting for some reason.


Dependant on soil composition to some extent, they offer the odorless (almost) digestion of pig pee and droppings while producing plenty of gas for heating, cooling (using gas fired AC), cooking, and allowing the surplus to be flared off. Compressing gas for transportation use is a seperate, and much more complex project, though firing a stationary generator might be relatively easy.
A few days with a backhoe, a modified septic tank and a load of 2"& 4" PVC is enough to heat your home and cook. Changing out your AC is an additional expense, and a month or so to designing a system to fit your needs is one of the major joys of such a project.


If you don't digest their waste and capture/burn the methane, the gas will still be produced and will find its way into the atmosphere. It's not just free energy for your use, it's a net benefit for everyone.


Damn, I sound like a salesman for Mother Jones, or whatever publication now publishes such plans.
My apologies to all


I've no financial interests in such systems. Just an abiding hatred of the regulators that once charged me with 68 felony counts for developing and selling enzyme based septic tank additives. Additives of the type now available in most rural country stores.
Terry

[kassy]

^^
That's an amazing loss of quality protein!
What is expected to fill the gap. What source would emit fewer emissions, and what will it taste like?
Won't prices for pork spike? What will the less affluent eat?


I'm amazed, and somehow disturbed.
I need more time to consider this.
Terry

TerryM don´t worry. 

Nederlandse export landbouwproducten in 2018 ruim € 90 miljard. In 2018 is voor een bedrag van € 90,3 miljard geëxporteerd aan landbouwgoederen. Dat is een lichte groei van 0,2% ten opzichte van 2017 (€ 90,1 miljard). Nederland is de op één na grootste landbouwexporteur van de wereld, na de Verenigde Staten.

https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/nieuws/2019/01/18/nederlandse-export-landbouwproducten-in-2018-ruim-90-miljard

Dutch agricultural export was worth 90 billion euros in 2018. We are the second biggest exporter worldwide after the US...and we are about 230 times smaller.

This does not include pig farming but the overall idea is the same. We export stuff so we can export less. In the netherlands we only eat choice parts of the animal. We don´t really do organ meat much so that was sold to france/southern europe. And recently we got export permission to export pigs again to China where they use all parts of it so you can sell all the other parts too them.

https://edepot.wur.nl/464128

The link above is a report on animal farming. For pigs see page 43.
It´s in dutch but google translate should work.

There are several ways to argue about this. One is the claim that we are actually efficient in emissions compared to most other countries and this is true but that still does not mean we have to produce their food or at least not as much as we do now.

As for pork prices...there is a huge ASF problem and there is not enough pork in the world for the chinese so we will see what that does in the short term for prices.

PS: the earlier concept version of the law had 120 million earmarked for buyouts and 40 million for ´innovation´. The 120 million is enough to buy out about 40 pig farms.

https://www.brabantsemilieufederatie.nl/nieuws/bmf-pleit-voor-verplicht-oplossen-stankoverlast-varkenshouderij/

[gerontocrat]

But if the defences against African Swine Fever fail.....

It's in Poland, only 70 km from the German border.
UK pig farmers are holding their breath.

And the world demand for pork (since China had to slaughter most of their pigs) is greater than world supply.

[kassy]

Yeah if it is in Germany it might do the same thing as in Poland because that just relates to bad practices in the sector. And then that would put it next to our swine sector number 2 but as soon as that gets hit the whole country locks down.

I wonder what the current remedy is. In many scenarios they would just cull the animals and start over.

Oh the joys of monoculture... 
 

[Bruce Steele]

Biosecurity and best practices , Wash and disinfect all trucks and trailers , chlorox tires, after every trip to slaughterhouse. Wear plastic or rubber boots at slaughterhouse, chlorox. Change clothes and wash before wearing around home herd.
 Never feed scraps ! Feed or what feed is transported in can spread disease from one farm to another as feed truck fill multiple farms feed bins, tires need washing and chlorox between farms, truck driver shoes need disinfecting between farms. People can move disease between farms on their shoes or clothes. Birds can move disease on their feet. Wild pigs and feral pigs are one of the biggest problems , double fences so domestic pigs and wild pigs can’t touch nose to nose.

Conventional hog confinement.
 Confinement with filtered air and double door entry/ exit . Shower in and change clothes on entry or between separate barns. Hog barns can be cleared of hogs and sterilized.

[Rob Dekker]

Varkenshouders in het zuiden van het land krijgen als ze overgaan op sanering veel meer geld per varken dan bedrijven in het oosten. De subsidieregeling voor het uitkopen van varkensboeren, 'warme sanering' genoemd, is in het leven geroepen om de stankoverlast en stikstofuitstoot van de sector te verminderen. Het ministerie van Landbouw maakte de tarieven van de subsidieregeling donderdag bekend.

Iemand die in het zuiden van het land tot sanering overgaat, ontvangt 151 euro per varken. In het oosten van het land ligt de vergoeding per varken een stuk lager: op 52 euro. De vergoeding per varken is berekend door Wageningen University & Research.

De reden voor het grote verschil in prijs per varken is een verschil in vraag en aanbod: in het oosten kan een varkenshouder nog volop varkensrechten kopen, in het zuiden zijn ze juist nog amper te krijgen. Het is voor boeren niet mogelijk om varkensrechten uit de andere regio te kopen.

https://www.nu.nl/economie/6012556/varkenshouder-in-het-zuiden-krijgt-bij-sanering-veel-meer-geld-per-varken.html

also see
https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/veehouderij/duurzame-varkenshouderij/subsidieregeling-sanering-varkenshouderij

180 million euros are reserved for a buy out of pig farmers. The program is voluntary and the compensation depends on which of the two main areas the farmer is in. The prize in the south is higher because you cannot buy new pig farming rights for the area.

The aim is to reduce nitrogen emissions and smell problems too.

Just like the "policy" to switch home heating to electricity, this "policy" of emission reduction by eliminating pig farms does not make any sense either.

First of all, if the Netherlands doesn't produce these pigs, some other country will.
And probably causing more emissions.

Also, can't you catch the methane emissions from the manure (for cows as well) ? :
https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/08/29/harnessing-the-hidden-power-of-cow-manure/
Would also compensate a bit for the lost gas after you shut down the gas wells

Finally, it seems that you are killing these pig farms not because of methane, but because of NOx emissions.

But aren't diesel/gasoline engines a much bigger contributor of NOx than pig manure ?

Do you have a link to that study from the University of Wageningen you refer to ?

[nanning]

Perhaps cars emit mainly N2O (GHG) and the pig farms mainly NO and NO2 (air pollution)?

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOx :
"Nitrous oxide plays hardly any role in air pollution, although it may have a significant impact on the ozone layer,[4] and is a significant greenhouse gas. "

"NOx gases are usually produced from the reaction among nitrogen and oxygen during combustion of fuels, such as hydrocarbons, in air; especially at high temperatures, such as occur in car engines.[1][2][3] In areas of high motor vehicle traffic, such as in large cities, the nitrogen oxides emitted can be a significant source of air pollution. "

[RikW]

The problem with the pigs isn't only the CO2, but also nitrogen which pollutes our (human-planned...) nature. Almost all pigs produced in those large farms are for the export and probably also with european subsidy. So f.e. China buys our cheaps pork meat, we have the pollution and pay for it also by subsidy's.

The heating should be done by heat pumps. I think the idea is that heat pumps are more efficient than burning fossil fuels, because you also need better isolation. And burning fossil fuels in large plants is most of the time more efficient than doing it at home.

[kassy]

The buyout is mainly for nitrogen and smell pollution (this was the original reason the law was already in the works). Remember these are big modern farms.

Of course there is technology to combat that but i guess that implementing that makes the pigs too expensive. 

First of all, if the Netherlands doesn't produce these pigs, some other country will.
And probably causing more emissions.

Ah yes but the nitrogen problem needs to be solved in the country because that is a EU law we signed on to and then not properly implemented. This is about our own emissions, our pollution.

So technically if someone across the border started a huge pig farm that would not be a problem.

But aren't diesel/gasoline engines a much bigger contributor of NOx than pig manure ?


The maximum speed for cars will be lowered, see first 2 posts of this thread.

Do you have a link to that study from the University of Wageningen you refer to ?

This one?

https://edepot.wur.nl/464128
The link above is a report on animal farming. For pigs see page 43.

The one on agriculture is linked under ´documenten´ on the first link.

[Rob Dekker]

Perhaps cars emit mainly N2O (GHG) and the pig farms mainly NO and NO2 (air pollution)?

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOx :
"Nitrous oxide plays hardly any role in air pollution, although it may have a significant impact on the ozone layer,[4] and is a significant greenhouse gas. "

"NOx gases are usually produced from the reaction among nitrogen and oxygen during combustion of fuels, such as hydrocarbons, in air; especially at high temperatures, such as occur in car engines.[1][2][3] In areas of high motor vehicle traffic, such as in large cities, the nitrogen oxides emitted can be a significant source of air pollution. "

According to that wiki page, NOx includes NO and NO2, and often also includes N2O, and that NOx is mostly emitted by burning hydrocarbons in car engines.

Also NOx emissions from pig farms (or agriculture in general) is minor compared to NOx emissions from car engines. See below a picture of the sources of NOx, from this reference :
https://www.rivm.nl/stikstof

Which shows that the vast majority of NOx still comes from traffic (even though it is much better than a few decades ago) and the energy industry (burning fossil fuels), and that NOx emissions from all of agriculture are still minor. Closing pig farms because of their minor NOx emissions is thus silly.

In fact, when above we talk about "stikstof" emissions from pig farms, it appears that we are talking about ammonia. Ammonia gets emitted from pig manure, and agriculture is the main source of ammonia emissions, as you can see in the second image below, from the same link.

Incidentally, ammonia is not a greenhouse gas, and the Netherlands is not exceeding its maximum ammonia quota yet, so that can't be the reason to close these pig farms either.

[Rob Dekker]

Do you have a link to that study from the University of Wageningen you refer to ?

This one?

https://edepot.wur.nl/464128
The link above is a report on animal farming. For pigs see page 43.

I actually was looking for that study that determined the compensation per pig for closing the farm : "In het oosten van het land ligt de vergoeding per varken een stuk lager: op 52 euro. De vergoeding per varken is berekend door Wageningen University & Research."

But your link above is also a really good report, with lots of very interesting information.
Thank you !

For example, I found the graph of the CO2eq emissions from all of agriculture very informative.

It shows that methane emissions from farting cows are about as bad as the CO2 emitted from burning natural gas to heat all these greenhouses that sustain the Netherlands' miracle indoor agriculture. Now if we could only find a way to capture the methane from the cows and use it to heat the greenhouses

[Hefaistos]

I was reading a very interesting paper and discussion between three climate professors on the so called tropical 'hot spot' at 'Climate dialogue', which is/was a platform based in the NL.

Seems there was some conflict around this platform, it had governement funding up until 2015 which was then withdrawn, and the platform ceased to be active.
Anyone from NL knows what it was all about?

Climatedialogue.org
https://www.mwenb.nl/climate-dialogue/
https://www.mwenb.nl/the-missing-tropical-hot-spot/

[Rob Dekker]

I was reading a very interesting paper and discussion between three climate professors on the so called tropical 'hot spot' at 'Climate dialogue', which is/was a platform based in the NL.

Yes, I remember that platform.
In fact, the first 'dialogue' there was about Arctic Sea Ice :
https://www.mwenb.nl/melting-of-the-arctic-sea-ice/

Both Neven and me posted comments there, which resulted in discussions by experts further down. Those were the good days !

The forum was not able to attract many scientists, and stated that :

In every discussion, at least one of the participating scientists was someone perceived to be a climate sceptic.

https://www.mwenb.nl/final-evaluation-report-of-climate-dialogue/

This concept givens an undue weight to skeptics and creates a false sense of disagreement about the facts. A sense that scientists are still arguing about AGW and its causes.
While in fact, the scientific discussion has long been settled.

The Dutch government must have realized that at some point and pulled the plug in 2015.

[Rob Dekker]

First of all, if the Netherlands doesn't produce these pigs, some other country will.
And probably causing more emissions.

Ah yes but the nitrogen problem needs to be solved in the country because that is a EU law we signed on to and then not properly implemented. This is about our own emissions, our pollution.

So technically if someone across the border started a huge pig farm that would not be a problem.

Thanks Kassy.
Yet, you are just moving the problem over the border with this "policy" of closing pig farms.

Also, which exact EU law is the Netherlands implementing here ?

[kassy]

I don´t know the proper name of EU the law but there are two things.

1) The EU countries agreed to appoint 17% of each country as a protected nature area (Natura2000 areas). I think this is an agreement and not a law in itself. So far the Netherlands has only 13% which basically means we are one of the lowest in Europe but our problem is that we are a small and very much of the area is in some economic use.

2) The EU law relates to protecting the Natura2000 areas from pollution. The main problem for us is the nitrogen pollution because we just emit too much of it. The only real world solution is emitting less but they tried a bookkeeping solution where damage now was compensated by future efficiency gains. That got shot down in court and rightly so.

So it is a local problem with a local solution.

This also means we are not moving the problem over the border. There is no requirement for other countries to produce the extra pigs. There is of course an incentive but that is something else and in reality it will be all dwarfed by the fall out of the ASF epidemic (prices are good).