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Author Topic: The 2020/2021 freezing season  (Read 93013 times)

oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #850 on: November 21, 2020, 08:24:49 AM »
The CAB is clawing its way again to FJL. Meanwhile in the southern Kara a massive retreat. Did that ice actually melt or was it squeezed in somehow?

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #851 on: November 21, 2020, 12:58:41 PM »
Here's the slow sea ice concentration animation for the last week.

Regionally, big gains in Hudson Bay and along the Atlantic edge, mixed changes in Baffin, slight losses in Chukchi and big losses in the Kara Sea.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #852 on: November 21, 2020, 01:07:37 PM »
The CAB is clawing its way again to FJL. Meanwhile in the southern Kara a massive retreat. Did that ice actually melt or was it squeezed in somehow?

Looks like both. Southwesterly wind and temps a little above freezing for most of the last week.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Vince O

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #853 on: November 22, 2020, 11:50:17 AM »
Well it looks like the ice is going to get a double whammy on both sides of the pack in the next week. According to the forecast on both Climate Reanalyzer and Earth nullschool the Pacific side which is already suffering a melt / push back (I'm being honest, I don't know why) will be getting sustained 50-60 km/h winds in exactly the direction it doesn't want along the Chuckchi and East Siberian Seas coast line. Sure that will push the ice back considerably.
     Then we have ther forecast on the Atlantic side for next Friday / Saturday (Yes, I know it's past four days, just) which, looking at both C.ReA and Earth Nulls conferring with each other the approach. I know things change, esp this year but it does look quite aweful hitting again where the ice is thin and only just getting itself reconsolidated after the last storm. This one looks bigger, deeper through the Fram Straight again. Can only watch tomorrow and Tuesday to see what might happen but with both forecasts having the storm come up Greenlands coast on Thurday late evening it doesn't look good.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #854 on: November 22, 2020, 07:09:25 PM »
Here's the slow sea ice concentration animation for the last week.

Regionally, big gains in Hudson Bay and along the Atlantic edge, mixed changes in Baffin, slight losses in Chukchi and big losses in the Kara Sea.

Also interesting (and probably worrying):  the new ice pack temporarily detaching from almost the entire Laptev coast and from some islands in the Laptev Sea on your animation BFTV.   Probably caused by SSW winds? -- the same winds you mention in your reply to oren above?  This sure looks like ice motion rather than ice melting.
 
Thanks as ever for these superb animations.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2020, 08:04:43 PM by Pagophilus »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #855 on: November 23, 2020, 12:23:12 PM »
Not only the Laptev. The Alaskan coast in the Beaufort is also looking unsettled. Southerly winds, then persistent easterlies drawing ice out to sea. (ice to the right of wind) Possible there is also upwelling there.
http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20201101/20201123/2/2

amsr2 awi v103, nov14-22
the swaths on this dev version not quite overlapping on nov15

The low concentration area verifies on viirs brightness temperature https://go.nasa.gov/3pTbTsN
Nullschool has ~-16C there today so the leads will be refreezing except those close to the chukchi.

edit: added laptev while it's all set up
« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 01:10:02 PM by uniquorn »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #856 on: November 25, 2020, 05:46:04 AM »
November 18-24.

2019.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #857 on: November 25, 2020, 04:40:44 PM »
Some general context via NOAA on where the Earth has been anomalously warmest this year through Oct 31.  And how hot the Northern Hemisphere has been during this period.  My bolding.

"The global land-only January–October 2020 temperature departure of +1.60°C (+2.88°F) tied with 2016 as the highest temperature for January–October on record. The global ocean-only surface temperature was the second highest on record, behind the record set in 2016. The Northern Hemisphere land and ocean surface temperature was 1.29°C (2.32°F) above average and the highest on record for the January–October period , exceeding the previous record set in 2019 by 0.02°C (0.04°F). "

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202010

Central Siberia is obvious.  The cold blob in the North Atlantic is still going strong.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2020, 04:46:31 PM by Pagophilus »

grixm

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #858 on: November 26, 2020, 02:28:41 PM »
Just a tip guys, if you're like me and check cryospherecomputing.tk regularly, but noticed that it has been down for the last few days, then the old site hosted by google but containing most of the same charts, is still up:

https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/daily-data

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #859 on: November 27, 2020, 03:55:45 PM »
As I suspected would occur, Hudson's refreeze was very rapid and is now almost complete. Ahead of any year since 1995, it seems per El Cid's data. I think this will aid in advection of Atlantic oceanic heat into the Barents / Kara / Laptev / CAB and we have now made up a big chunk of the "easy" gains as well. The fact we lost ice yesterday (while Hudson is still making its last leaps forward) is a very bad sign for the actual Arctic Basin, IMO.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #860 on: November 27, 2020, 04:00:46 PM »
Russian Arctic sea's have flatlined in the last 10 days and are back below 2012. Without a significant acceleration in growth, 2020 will be back to the lowest values in a week.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Vince O

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #861 on: November 27, 2020, 07:19:25 PM »
So looks like consistent 60-70km/hr winds driving out of the Fram Starit to the Atlantic for just over 24 hrs and a storm just North with 60 km/hr winds blowing into the pack. Does anyone think there might be any disruption of the ice on the Greenland North-East peninsula ? Maybe the winds this strong for a 24hr period might have some effect ?

oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #862 on: November 27, 2020, 10:22:45 PM »
As I suspected would occur, Hudson's refreeze was very rapid and is now almost complete. Ahead of any year since 1995, it seems per El Cid's data. I think this will aid in advection of Atlantic oceanic heat into the Barents / Kara / Laptev / CAB and we have now made up a big chunk of the "easy" gains as well. The fact we lost ice yesterday (while Hudson is still making its last leaps forward) is a very bad sign for the actual Arctic Basin, IMO.
Indeed, you predicted fast Hudson Bay growth which materialized, as also shown by the AMSR2 area data.
As El Cid notes, 2018 is still ahead of 2020 by a bit, though this might change in a few days. In addition, 2014 is not far behind.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #863 on: November 27, 2020, 10:40:18 PM »
amsr2 awi v103 hudson, nov1-27(early) click for animation
noaa sea ice concentration, hudson nov27, 1981-2019 animation and compressed static (might be useful for the atmospheric connections thread) No data for 82 and 85.
The static image is compressed 1/10 width for easier visual comparison see more detail for other areas on the mosaic thread here
amap hudson bay currents.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2020, 11:06:15 PM by uniquorn »