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Author Topic: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data  (Read 505358 times)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1500 on: September 08, 2020, 08:27:03 PM »
Evaluation of Arctic sea ice area "relative area wise" Aug 22 - Sep 07, 2020.
The list becomes shorter, as most of the seas have melted out more or less completely.
The others here in a list, ordered by relative losses:
CAB        -   2%
ESS        -   2%
Kara       -   7%
Beaufort - 15%
CAA        - 20%
Grønland - 23%
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Michael J

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1501 on: September 09, 2020, 06:41:15 AM »
Their lastest twitter page says the system is now down for "planned system maintenance" which does seem ridiculous at this time ???

Arctic Data archive System (ADS) will be unavailable due to the planned system maintenance.
We are sorry for the inconvenience this may cause.
<Maintenance window>
7 Sep. 2020 at 12:00JST  -  10 Sep. at 12:00 JST

"Planned" can mean planned a week ahead for emergency repairs rather than part of a 12 month plan

S.Pansa

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1502 on: September 09, 2020, 06:46:33 AM »
https://data.meereisportal.de/maps/latest/extent_long_n_en.png

.... Have we reached the bottom?


Not yet it seems
01.09 3.60
02.09 3.56
03.09 3.50
04.09 3.39
05.09 3.39
06.09 3.39
07.09 3.41
08.09 3.32

I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1503 on: September 09, 2020, 06:48:17 AM »
What was the minimum 2012 Bremen dataset value? Seems like another wobble like today might bring 2020 within range, but I can't seem to find the raw numbers anywhere to confirm

MrGreeny

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1504 on: September 09, 2020, 10:07:22 AM »
ADS site should be back on in approximately 19hrs. Should be getting the last 6 days of extent data when it updates.

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ArcticMelt2

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glennbuck

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1506 on: September 09, 2020, 02:17:03 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area: September 8th

Arctic Sea ice area: 2,672,099 million km^2

Change from yesterday: Area gain of 21,864 km^2

(2020) NSIDC: Area daily: 2.672               NSIDC: Extent daily: 3.770


NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 17
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21
« Last Edit: September 09, 2020, 05:27:10 PM by glennbuck »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1507 on: September 09, 2020, 02:20:11 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 08-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,694,090 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,694,090    km2      
-382,798    km2   <   2010's average.
-295,206    km2   <   2019
-1,360,594 km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -14    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    1    k   gain
Central Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -11    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 14 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 13 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 383 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,361 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 245 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 295 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 365 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 08-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,800,456 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 34 k, 8 k more than the 2010's average loss of 26k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 768 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,839 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 369 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 565 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 293 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1508 on: September 09, 2020, 03:11:36 PM »
NSIDC Extent Graphs

melt / increased concentration in these seas might delay the minimum for a little bit.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1509 on: September 09, 2020, 03:54:23 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Today's 1-day change was −7

7-day average:  (3770 − 4004) / 7  =  −33
14-day average: (3770 − 4429) / 14  =  −47

2020-08-25  4.429
2020-08-26  4.427      −2
2020-08-27  4.363    −64
2020-08-28  4.448    +85
2020-08-29  4.365    −83
2020-08-30  4.260  −105
2020-08-31  4.200    −60
2020-09-01  4.004  −196
2020-09-02  4.051    +47
2020-09-03  3.939  −112
2020-09-04  3.822  −117
2020-09-05  3.822        0
2020-09-06  3.811    −11
2020-09-07  3.777    −34
2020-09-08  3.770      −7

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1510 on: September 09, 2020, 06:00:19 PM »
NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,800,456 KM2 as at 08-Sep-2020

- Extent loss on this day 34k, 8 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 11,083 k; 1,024 k, (10.2%) more than the 10 year average of 10,059 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  531 k LESS than 2007.
- Extent is  293 k MORE than 2012,
- Extent is  369 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  565 k LESS than 2019,
_____________________________________________
On average 98.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 6 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC-EXTENT-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.69 million km2, 0.30 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.39 million km2.
__________________________________
IDLE(?) Speculation
JAXA Data should (crossed fingers) return tomorrow or the day after.
At this time of year on average JAXA extent is well over 200k LESS than NSIDC extent data.

If that is replicated this year, JAXA extent is already below 3.75 million km2, with a possible minimum of below 3.5 million km2.

______________________________
click each image for full size
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JNap

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1511 on: September 10, 2020, 05:24:24 AM »
JAXA is back up!  Data is updated through 09/09.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

I will let Juan post the specifics.
Science matters.

RikW

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1512 on: September 10, 2020, 08:46:29 AM »
For those who can't wait:

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 
3,860,699 02 sept
3,804,272 03 sept  -56k
3,732,809 04 sept  -71k
3,687,319 05 sept  -45k
3,659,270 06 sept  -28k
3,607,577 07 sept  -52k
3,589,809 08 sept  -18k
3,586,426 09 sept   -3k


jdallen

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1513 on: September 10, 2020, 09:15:10 AM »
For those who can't wait:

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 
<snip>
3,586,426 09 sept   -3k
The difference between 2020 and 2012 is mostly academic at this point.
This space for Rent.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1514 on: September 10, 2020, 10:04:47 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,586,426 KM2 as at 09-Sep-2020

- Extent loss on this day 3k, 9 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 12k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 10,861 k, 989 k, 10.0% more than the 10 year average of 9,873 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  584 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  445 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  304 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  587 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 99.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 5 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.51 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

As we are already beyond the date of the minimum for several years this table is more or less beyond its useful life.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1515 on: September 10, 2020, 10:32:12 AM »
JAXA Data, a bit more.

Assuming average extent loss and average extent gain after minimum would give a September monthly average of 3.74 million km2, only the second time with a below 4 million km2 monthly average. This would be 446k, or nearly 5 years, ahead of the linear trend.

As one can see from the plume, the actual monthly average will depend very much on the spread of extent gain, which is highly variable.

I also attach the minima table, that compares the current extent with previous years' minima.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2020, 10:52:12 AM by gerontocrat »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1516 on: September 10, 2020, 01:41:46 PM »
Which is more important for meteorological effects, area or extent?
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Général de GuerreLasse

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1517 on: September 10, 2020, 02:08:27 PM »
Which is more important for meteorological effects, area or extent?

Hello Tom, as they say at home I'm going to give you a Norman answer  8) (maybe yes, maybe no). Intuitively you might think that the surface of the ice is more important than the extent for its effect on the climate, but what about the state of the ice? If there are more or less melting ponds, how do we do it? I also think that the snow cover or not of the continents and the ice plays a very important role on the climate by modifying the albedo. And I'm sure I'm forgetting a lot of things like clouds.  :P  :-[
In the Arctic there are no simple answers, we would have known it by now. :)
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1518 on: September 10, 2020, 02:12:00 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 09-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,694,491 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,694,491    km2      
-372,890    km2   <   2010's average.
-301,563    km2   <   2019
-1,360,536    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    0    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    2    k   gain
Central Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__   -7    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 0 k, 10 k less than the 2010's average loss of 10 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 373 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,361 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 216 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 302 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 376 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 09-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,791,569 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 9 k, 10 k less than the 2010's average loss of 19k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 758 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,834 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 354 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 584 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 294 k more than 2012
   
______________________________________

Extent and area losses tending to zero.
      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1519 on: September 10, 2020, 02:14:50 PM »
NSIDC Extent Graphs

Three seas still showing extent losses.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1520 on: September 10, 2020, 03:12:57 PM »
For those who can't wait:

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 
<snip>
3,586,426 09 sept   -3k
The difference between 2020 and 2012 is mostly academic at this point.

It was, never the less, an exciting melt season.

glennbuck

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1521 on: September 10, 2020, 03:34:46 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area: September 9th

Arctic Sea ice area: 2,732,571 million km^2

Change from yesterday: Area gain of 60,472 km^2


NSIDC Daily Area, September 7th, 2,650,235 million km^2, is the low for the year to date. 

(2020) NSIDC: Area daily: 2.732               NSIDC: Extent daily: 3.777


NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 17
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21
« Last Edit: September 10, 2020, 10:10:33 PM by glennbuck »

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1522 on: September 10, 2020, 04:42:16 PM »
JAXA is back up!  Data is updated through 09/09.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

I will let Juan post the specifics.

Sorry I thought they will post a day later. My mistake.
Thanks JNap, RikW & Gerontocrat.  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 9th, 2020:
     3,586,426 km2, a drop of -3,383 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: September 10, 2020, 04:50:36 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1523 on: September 10, 2020, 06:10:57 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Today's 1-day change was +7

7-day average:  (3777 − 4051) / 7  =  −39
14-day average: (3777 − 4427) / 14  =  −46

2020-08-26  4.427
2020-08-27  4.363    −64
2020-08-28  4.448    +85
2020-08-29  4.365    −83
2020-08-30  4.260  −105
2020-08-31  4.200    −60
2020-09-01  4.004  −196
2020-09-02  4.051    +47
2020-09-03  3.939  −112
2020-09-04  3.822  −117
2020-09-05  3.822        0
2020-09-06  3.811    −11
2020-09-07  3.777    −34
2020-09-08  3.770      −7
2020-09-09  3.777      +7

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1524 on: September 11, 2020, 05:29:58 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 10th, 2020:
     3,571,043 km2, a drop of -15,383 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S.: As a curious fact, the 2020 ASI extent is only 49.4% of 1980's average. That is, 2020 ASI extent is 44,313 km2 less than the half (3,615,356 km2) of 1980's average.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 05:48:07 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1525 on: September 11, 2020, 06:00:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

P.S.: As a curious fact, the 2020 ASI extent is only 49.4% of 1980's average. That is, 2020 ASI extent is 44,313 km2 less than the half (3,615,356 km2) of 1980's average.

Same graph, but including decade averages. It becomes a very different image. We often forget where we are when we compare with the first years of satellite data.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 06:08:18 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

DavidR

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1526 on: September 11, 2020, 06:15:08 AM »
Another interesting fact is that 2020 is now just over 393K below the minimum for 2019 (2nd lowest) and 393K above the minimum for 2012 (lowest).
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Andre Koelewijn

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1527 on: September 11, 2020, 09:24:06 AM »
Same graph, but including decade averages. It becomes a very different image. We often forget where we are when we compare with the first years of satellite data.
Nice graph for comparison.

Yes, it's a long way down.
To see how far we can go at most, this graph starting at 0 on the vertical axis might be an idea.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1528 on: September 11, 2020, 11:51:28 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,571,043 KM2 as at 10-Sep-2020

- Extent loss on this day 15k, 20 k more than the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of -5k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 10,877 k, 1,009 k, 10.2% more than the 10 year average of 9,867 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  579 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  505 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  306 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  574 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 99.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 4 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.49 million km2, 0.32 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size
« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 12:32:46 PM by gerontocrat »
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glennbuck

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1529 on: September 11, 2020, 02:07:19 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area: September 10th

Arctic Sea ice area: 2,712,284 million km^2

Change from yesterday: Area loss of 20,287 km^2


NSIDC Daily Area, September 7th, 2,650,235 million km^2, is the current low for the year.

(2020) NSIDC: Area daily: 2.712               NSIDC: Extent daily: 3.763


NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 17
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21
« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 11:15:06 PM by glennbuck »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1530 on: September 11, 2020, 02:13:48 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,693,644 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,693,644    km2      
-368,101    km2   <   2010's average.
-308,500    km2   <   2019
-1,360,352    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -1    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas___   -5    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__   -6    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 1 k, 5 k less than the 2010's average loss of 6 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 368 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,360 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 184 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 309 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 389 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 10-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,779,609 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 12 k, 1 k less than the 2010's average loss of 13k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 756 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,826 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 358 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 594 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 293 k more than 2012

__________________________________
The melting season may be dying, but it ain't dead - yet.         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1531 on: September 11, 2020, 03:38:42 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Today's 1-day change was −14

7-day average:  (3763 − 3939) / 7  =  −25
14-day average: (3763 − 4363) / 14  =  −43

2020-08-27  4.363
2020-08-28  4.448    +85
2020-08-29  4.365    −83
2020-08-30  4.260  −105
2020-08-31  4.200    −60
2020-09-01  4.004  −196
2020-09-02  4.051    +47
2020-09-03  3.939  −112
2020-09-04  3.822  −117
2020-09-05  3.822        0
2020-09-06  3.811    −11
2020-09-07  3.777    −34
2020-09-08  3.770      −7
2020-09-09  3.777      +7
2020-09-09  3.763    −14

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1532 on: September 11, 2020, 03:57:21 PM »
NSIDC Extent graphs

These seas are still losing extent

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1533 on: September 11, 2020, 07:19:14 PM »
I added the monthly extent value for August 2020 into my long-term plot where I calculate the extent anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average (1979-2020) August extent is now 6.18 M km². August 2020 had an average extent of 5.09 M km², which is 1.09 M km² less than that long-term average.
The much higher than normal losses in July 2020 had pushed the actual value below the red long-term linear trend line, where it remains in August. The difference is -0.54 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this August should have been at 5.63 M km²).
The slope of the long-term linear trend line has become steeper by two digits (-0.0553 instead of -0.0551).

See attached graph.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1534 on: September 12, 2020, 05:35:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 11th, 2020:
     3,562,288 km2, a drop of -8,755 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: September 12, 2020, 05:45:56 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1535 on: September 12, 2020, 11:23:51 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,562,288 KM2 as at 11-Sep-2020

- Extent loss on this day 9k, 9 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 0k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 10,885 k, 1,018 k, 10.3% more than the 10 year average of 9,867 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  548 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  562 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  328 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  564 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 99.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 3 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

This table shows the average remaining extent loss of the years that have yet to reach minimum by this date. So the average remaining extent loss is exaggerated - and the table is now redundant and will be replaced when freezing has started and I get around to doing it.
_____________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1536 on: September 12, 2020, 12:27:42 PM »
As the melting season is nearly over, here is some end-of-season stuff.

The Plume - just to show that maybe it ain't all over yet,

Comparison of today's 2020 extent with previous years' minima,

A graph showing the daily change over the whole season for selected years, smoothed into 7 day trailing averages.
______________________________________
Click on image for full size
« Last Edit: September 12, 2020, 12:52:30 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1537 on: September 12, 2020, 02:19:23 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,701,113 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,701,113    km2      
-360,699    km2   <   2010's average.
-293,052    km2   <   2019
-1,356,928    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    7    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    3    k   gain
Central Seas___    5    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 7 k, 7 k more than the 2010's average gain of 0 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 361 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,357 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 140 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 293 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 407 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 11-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,769,877 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 10 k, 0 k less than the 2010's average loss of 10k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 756 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,820 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 369 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 594 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 290 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click on an image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1538 on: September 12, 2020, 07:14:41 PM »
NSIDC is reporting no change in daily extent today.

2020-09-10: 3.763
2020-09-11: 3.763


glennbuck

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1539 on: September 12, 2020, 09:54:05 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area, no updates today.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1540 on: September 13, 2020, 05:37:33 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 12th, 2020:
     3,563,856 km2, a small increase of  1,568 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: September 13, 2020, 05:47:09 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1541 on: September 13, 2020, 10:18:18 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,563,856 KM2 as at 12-Sep-2020

- Extent gain on this day 2k, 9 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 7k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 10,884 k, 1,010 k, 10.2% more than the 10 year average of 9,874 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  523 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  640 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  357 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  565 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 99.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 2 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Warmth, including rain, is travelling from the Siberian shore across the central arctic. Just a chance of a last gasp of extent losses before freeze commences.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1542 on: September 13, 2020, 02:17:34 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,720,496 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,720,496    km2      
-348,687    km2   <   2010's average.
-268,189    km2   <   2019
-1,345,714    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    16    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    1    k   gain
Central Seas___    15    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    15    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 16 k, 9 k more than the 2010's average gain of -7 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 349 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,346 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 89 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 268 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 444 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 12-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,757,952 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 7 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 6k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 762 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,817 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 411 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 589 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 299 k more than 2012

_____________________________________________
Looks like area has hit the minimum - on 10th September, but extent might have a little bit more to go.         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click on an image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1543 on: September 13, 2020, 03:24:18 PM »
As NSIDC area seems to have reached the minimum, and perhaps extent has not, here is the extent analysis as in the area analysis above.

NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 12-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,757,952 KM2         
         
Total EXTENT         
 3,757,952    km2      
-761,561    km2   <   2010's average.
-589,056    km2   <   2019
-1,816,527    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -7    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    1    k   gain
Central Seas___   -9    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________    2    k   gain
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 7 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 6k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 762 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,817 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 411 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 589 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 299 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click on an image to see it full-size         

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1544 on: September 13, 2020, 04:16:05 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

NOTES:

1. The extent for 2020-09-11 was revised from 3.763 to 3.740

2. As seen in the attached screenshot, the numbers for 2020-09-12 are just a copy of 2020-09-11, so they've been dropped

September 11: 1-day change was -23

7-day average:  (3740 − 3822) / 7  =  −12
14-day average: (3740 − 4448) / 14  =  −51

2020-08-28  4.448
2020-08-29  4.365    −83
2020-08-30  4.260  −105
2020-08-31  4.200    −60
2020-09-01  4.004  −196
2020-09-02  4.051    +47
2020-09-03  3.939  −112
2020-09-04  3.822  −117
2020-09-05  3.822        0
2020-09-06  3.811    −11
2020-09-07  3.777    −34
2020-09-08  3.770      −7
2020-09-09  3.777      +7
2020-09-10  3.763    −14
2020-09-11  3.740    −23

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1545 on: September 13, 2020, 04:38:41 PM »
NSIDC sent an email today .... and not for the first time in the last few days.
_____________________________________
Hi Matt,

I'm sorry to say there is an issue with the database that posts data to the site, so the data has not updated. This is a problem on our end, and it is currently being fixed. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Best,
Nic
__________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1546 on: September 13, 2020, 06:35:11 PM »
Matt,
This would be a good time to thank the good folks at NSIDC for making data available to us!  Could you do this for us?

There is nothing like a vote of confidence when things are going badly!
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Fractious

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1547 on: September 13, 2020, 07:05:05 PM »
No
2020 Artic Ice Extent will be 14,610,011

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1548 on: September 13, 2020, 07:47:47 PM »
Matt,
This would be a good time to thank the good folks at NSIDC for making data available to us!  Could you do this for us?

There is nothing like a vote of confidence when things are going badly!
Will do, got some stuff to talk about with them as well.

Ps: i am too tired to be fractious
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Pagophilus

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1549 on: September 13, 2020, 08:22:10 PM »
Keep up the great work, geron and Juan...sounds like a 70s pop group
GERON AND JUAN!!!
But I thank you for the thankless (not anymore) daily task!

^^^ echoughton.

Thank you, Gerontocrat and Juan, for all your tireless, reliable, expert, foundational work through yet another season.  You are the backbone of the threads that I look at here. 

I shall be turning the millstone of work for the next few months, but I shall also be lurking all winter, closely following the data and interpretation you bring us. 

And if you do put out a single, I will buy it!