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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1850 on: November 11, 2020, 04:35:46 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 9th, 2020:
     8,284,105 km2, a century break increase of 153,116 km2.

November 10th, 2020:
     8,369,720 km2, an increase of 85,615 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 11 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.
   
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2020, 04:47:09 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1851 on: November 11, 2020, 12:29:54 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,369,720 KM2 as at 10-Nov-2020

- Extent gain on this day 86k, 7 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 79k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 4,815 k, which is 275 k, 6% more than the 10 year average of 4,540 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  223 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  235 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  91 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  871 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  523 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 46.0% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 121 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.70 million km2, 0.18 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Extent gains remain above averge.
On 24th October extent gain from minimum was 1.043 million km2 below the average of the previous 10 days, on this day 0.275 million km2 above that average.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1852 on: November 11, 2020, 03:07:30 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 10-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,850,324 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 6,850,324    km2      
-813,306    km2   <   2010's average.
-696,838    km2   <   2019
-1,591,838    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    143    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    21    k   gain
Central Seas___    122    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    6    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    15    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    62    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    27    k   gain
Kara_________    24    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 143 k, 88 k more than the 2010's average gain of 55 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 813 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,592 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 342 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 697 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 387 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 10-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 8,380,872 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 108 k, 37 k more than the 2010's average gain of 71k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 661 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,288 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 171 k more than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 370 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 295 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Niall Dollard

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1853 on: November 11, 2020, 07:18:12 PM »
Hi Gero & Juan

You can kill me for this, but just wondering if there is any possibility the choice of colour schemes for key individual years could be harmonised on the Jaxa extent graphs ?

E.g. I was looking at what's ahead on Gero's extent graph and saw the big green dip ahead. My eyesight on phone isnt great and thought it was 2012 and only when zoomed in I realised Juan uses green for 2012 and Gero uses green for 2016.

If this is too problematic, it doesnt matter but thought it would be useful to have one or two key years the same colour.

Btw thanks for all your timely updates. I am one of the many who check in every day.  :)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1854 on: November 12, 2020, 04:32:18 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 11th, 2020:
     8,422,404 km2, an increase of 52,684 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 11 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.
   
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2020, 04:47:17 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1855 on: November 12, 2020, 05:04:50 AM »
Hi Gero & Juan

You can kill me for this, but just wondering if there is any possibility the choice of colour schemes for key individual years could be harmonised on the Jaxa extent graphs ?

E.g. I was looking at what's ahead on Gero's extent graph and saw the big green dip ahead. My eyesight on phone isnt great and thought it was 2012 and only when zoomed in I realised Juan uses green for 2012 and Gero uses green for 2016.

If this is too problematic, it doesnt matter but thought it would be useful to have one or two key years the same colour.

Btw thanks for all your timely updates. I am one of the many who check in every day.  :)

Hi Niall.

There is no problem with your question.

I use the graph capabilities that ADS VISHOP give us on their chart when you select the 2000-2020 years view. I change the colors a little, but not too much. By example, I change 2016 to orange, because I do not like the yellow that they used. I highlight some years to have a better view and I work the graph with Paint, just to give a closer look of the chart and to save some data space on the Forum server.

Other than that, I try to avoid too many changes, because I repeat this work every night and because on the melting season, the Forum users look to have the information as soon as possible.

On the other hand, I do not know how the ADS VISHOP standard in a couple of months will be, when they start including 2021.

So, I prefer to keep the colors that I use now.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1856 on: November 12, 2020, 10:02:48 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,422,404 KM2 as at 11-Nov-2020

- Extent gain on this day 53k, 26 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 79k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 4,868 k, which is 254 k, 6% more than the 10 year average of 4,613 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  245 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  134 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  116 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  878 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  549 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 46.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 120 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.67 million km2, 0.21 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
A below average extent gain for the first time since the 27th October.
Just a blip, or is the big extent gain catch-up sort of done?

Or maybe resistance to freezing expecially on the Atlantic Front will lead to a period of below average extent gains?

_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1857 on: November 12, 2020, 10:09:25 AM »
Hi Gero & Juan

You can kill me for this, but just wondering if there is any possibility the choice of colour schemes for key individual years could be harmonised on the Jaxa extent graphs ?

E.g. I was looking at what's ahead on Gero's extent graph and saw the big green dip ahead. My eyesight on phone isnt great and thought it was 2012 and only when zoomed in I realised Juan uses green for 2012 and Gero uses green for 2016.

If this is too problematic, it doesnt matter but thought it would be useful to have one or two key years the same colour.

Btw thanks for all your timely updates. I am one of the many who check in every day.  :)

Hi Niall.

There is no problem with your question.

I use the graph capabilities that ADS VISHOP give us on their chart when you select the 2000-2020 years view. I change the colors a little, but not too much. By example, I change 2016 to orange, because I do not like the yellow that they used. I highlight some years to have a better view and I work the graph with Paint, just to give a closer look of the chart and to save some data space on the Forum server.

Other than that, I try to avoid too many changes, because I repeat this work every night and because on the melting season, the Forum users look to have the information as soon as possible.

On the other hand, I do not know how the ADS VISHOP standard in a couple of months will be, when they start including 2021.

So, I prefer to keep the colors that I use now.
Hullo Niall,

I have sort-of standardised the colour scheme and line appearance (continuous or dashed) across Jaxa data (Arctic, Antarctic, Global) and NSIDC / PIOMAS Data (total, 14 seas, extent and area and volume).

That's an awful lot of graphs, and it took quite a lot of time.

So regretfully, the answer is a dusty no.

Gero.
________________________________
ps: Not a clue about what to do in 2021. if 2020 had not been a very low minimum, I would have probably kept 2019 and dumped 2020, but.....
« Last Edit: November 12, 2020, 02:58:19 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1858 on: November 12, 2020, 03:42:52 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 11-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,995,842 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 6,995,842    km2      
-728,542    km2   <   2010's average.
-610,041    km2   <   2019
-1,516,933    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    146    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    21    k   gain
Central Seas___    124    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    6    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    15    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    54    k   gain
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
Laptev_______    27    k   gain
Kara_________    19    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 146 k, 85 k more than the 2010's average gain of 61 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 729 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,517 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 401 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 610 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 292 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 11-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 8,506,431 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 126 k, 53 k more than the 2010's average gain of 73k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 609 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,225 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 200 k more than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 308 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 250 k less than 2012   
__________________________________________
Jaxa extent gains slowed - not much sign of it on NSIDC area & extent - yet.      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Niall Dollard

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1859 on: November 12, 2020, 06:43:45 PM »
Thanks Gero & Juan for your replies. Sounds like 2021 will present more decisions.

But anyhow, better let thread go back to the data reporting.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1860 on: November 13, 2020, 04:47:12 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 12th, 2020:
     8,516,166 km2, an increase of 93,762 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 12 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.
   
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 04:57:04 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1861 on: November 13, 2020, 12:39:17 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,516,166 KM2 as at 12-Nov-2020

- Extent gain on this day 94k, 33 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 61k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 4,961 k, which is 298 k, 6% more than the 10 year average of 4,663 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  255 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  156 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  129 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  853 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  516 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 47.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 119 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.70 million km2, 0.17 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Extent gains persist above average
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

MrGreeny

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1862 on: November 13, 2020, 01:26:24 PM »
I don't normally visit this forum after melting season is done but I thought I might pop in and say hi.

Keep up the good work Geronto and Juan, I might be back in March when the melting season starts again until then \o
The ice spins right round baby right round, like a record baby right round round round ~

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1863 on: November 13, 2020, 02:25:52 PM »
I come here every day to look at these charts...don't comment much here anymore...likely won't ever again but this thread and the melting and freezing season threads will have me as a regular visitor...keep up the good work.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1864 on: November 13, 2020, 04:18:12 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 12-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,143,114 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 7,143,114    km2      
-653,543    km2   <   2010's average.
-518,595    km2   <   2019
-1,431,652    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    147    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    25    k   gain
Central Seas___    122    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    14    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
Beaufort_____    10    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    51    k   gain
Central Arctic_    14    k   gain
Laptev_______    27    k   gain
Kara_________    15    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 147 k, 75 k more than the 2010's average gain of 72 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 654 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,432 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 457 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 519 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 225 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 12-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 8,632,387 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 126 k, 52 k more than the 2010's average gain of 74k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 557 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,159 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 235 k more than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 280 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 194 k less than 2012
_______________________________________________
Still not much sign of sea ice gains on NSIDC area & extent - yet.     
Maybe as Laptev & ESS are nearly full up ice we will see a slowdown over the next week
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1865 on: November 14, 2020, 04:37:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 13th, 2020:
     8,592,673 km2, an increase of 76,507 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 12 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.
   
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: November 14, 2020, 04:48:18 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1866 on: November 14, 2020, 11:33:43 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,592,673 KM2 as at 13-Nov-2020

- Extent gain on this day 77k, 18 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 59k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5,038 k, which is 328 k, 7% more than the 10 year average of 4,710 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  304 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  194 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  122 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  813 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  499 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 47.9% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 118 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.72 million km2, 0.16 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Daily extent gains are reducing but remain above average.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1867 on: November 14, 2020, 03:30:03 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 13-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,272,786 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 7,272,786    km2      
-607,238    km2   <   2010's average.
-443,751    km2   <   2019
-1,355,431    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    130    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    24    k   gain
Central Seas___    106    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    16    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
Beaufort_____    13    k   gain
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__    47    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______    24    k   gain
Kara_________    15    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 130 k, 47 k more than the 2010's average gain of 83 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 607 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,355 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 497 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 444 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 202 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 13-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 8,734,922 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 103 k, 29 k more than the 2010's average gain of 74k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 528 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,114 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 260 k more than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 278 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 165 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1868 on: November 15, 2020, 04:53:01 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 14th, 2020:
     8,687,981 km2, an increase of 95,308 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 12 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.
   
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2020, 05:04:40 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

HapHazard

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1869 on: November 15, 2020, 06:19:27 AM »
I love you folks. Just wanted to say that. Thanks.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1870 on: November 15, 2020, 11:51:24 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,687,981 KM2 as at 14-Nov-2020

- Extent gain on this day 95k, 22 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 73k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5,133 k, which is 343 k, 7% more than the 10 year average of 4,790 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  268 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  254 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  103 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  727 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  476 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 48.6% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 117 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.74 million km2, 0.13 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Daily sea ice extent gains continue relenlessly above average
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1871 on: November 15, 2020, 04:01:27 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 14-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,359,354 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 7,359,354    km2      
-613,211    km2   <   2010's average.
-421,929    km2   <   2019
-1,318,342    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    87    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    22    k   gain
Central Seas___    65    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    15    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____    6    k   gain
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__    36    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______    24    k   gain
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 87 k, 6 k less than the 2010's average gain of 93 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 613 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,318 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 482 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 422 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 255 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 14-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 8,806,156 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 71 k, 1 k less than the 2010's average gain of 72k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 529 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,096 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 273 k more than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 320 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 163 k less than 2012   
_________________________________________
Just maybe a sea-change to lower daily extent and area sea ice gains is arriving.
Daily extent gain only 35k on this day.
A look at Nico Sun's graph on https://cryospherecomputing.tk/ seems to say daily sea ice area change has stalled or even reversed on this day.

Perhaps due to Laptev and ESS nearly maxed out and other seas not taking up the slack.

Mind you, not much sign of a reduction in extent gains in the JAXA data.   
___________________________________________         

Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1872 on: November 16, 2020, 04:52:53 AM »
I love you folks. Just wanted to say that. Thanks.
:)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 15th, 2020:
     8,703,052 km2, an increase of 15,071 km2:o
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 12 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.
   
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2020, 05:03:57 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1873 on: November 16, 2020, 10:10:32 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,703,052 KM2 as at 15-Nov-2020

- Extent gain on this day 15k, 66 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 81k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5,148 k, which is 264 k, 5% more than the 10 year average of 4,884 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  300 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  246 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  206 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  741 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  541 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 49.5% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 116 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.68 million km2, 0.20 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
The first below average extent gain since the 23rd October.
A one-off or a sea change?

_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1874 on: November 16, 2020, 11:10:51 AM »
JAXA data - a bit more

I attach the monthly average graph for November - 2020 data being actual daily extent to 15th November and assuming average extent gains from the 16th to the end of the month.

Despite the extreme extent gains from the 24th October to a few days ago (see 2nd graph attached), if extent gains are averge from now, the November 2020 average will be 2nd lowest and nearly 400k (or more than 6 years) below the linear trend value for 2020.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1875 on: November 16, 2020, 03:14:12 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 15-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,436,458 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 7,436,458    km2      
-633,761    km2   <   2010's average.
-399,842    km2   <   2019
-1,297,258    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    77    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    22    k   gain
Central Seas___    55    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    7    k   gain
East Siberian__    29    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______    32    k   gain
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 77 k, 21 k less than the 2010's average gain of 98 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 634 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,297 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 462 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 400 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 340 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 15-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 8,878,093 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 72 k, 2 k less than the 2010's average gain of 74k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 531 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,082 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 283 k more than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 360 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 180 k less than 2012   
_________________________________________
perhaps lower extent and area gains are here for a few days more.      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1876 on: November 16, 2020, 03:49:54 PM »
NSIDC data - a bit more

In the melting season, sea ice area is the leading indicator, extent the lagging indicator.
In the freezing season, the reverse, sea ice extent is the leading indicator, area the lagging indicator.

I think I should have switched to using extent data and graphs from the beginning of the freezing season. Ho hum.

Extent and area sea ice increases are falling, perhaps due to slow refreeze on the Atlantic Front, i.e. the Central Arctic, Kara and Barents, while on the Pacific side Chukchi sea ice gains are pretty much average. Graphs attached
______________________________________________
Mind you, all could change very quickly in these seas and rapid freeze is likely to commence in the peripheral seas, perhaps especially the Okhotsk, Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1877 on: November 17, 2020, 04:31:19 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 16th, 2020:
     8,767,010 km2, an increase of 63,958 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.
   
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2020, 04:42:16 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1878 on: November 17, 2020, 11:14:32 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,767,010 KM2 as at 16-Nov-2020

- Extent gain on this day 64k, 3 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 67k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5,212 k, which is 253 k, 5% more than the 10 year average of 4,959 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  296 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  302 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  293 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  724 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  545 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 50.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 115 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.68 million km2, 0.20 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1879 on: November 17, 2020, 04:44:05 PM »
I will mostly post Extent data for the rest of the freezing season as extent at this time of year is the leading indicator of sea ice gains. But also an eye on area is required for where sea ice concentration fails to reach 100%.

NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 16-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 8,942,480 KM2         
         
Total EXTENT         
 8,942,480    km2      
-535,827    km2   <   2010's average.
-384,247    km2   <   2019
-1,083,376    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    64    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    58    k   gain
Central Seas___    7    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    33    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    9    k   gain
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    -    k   loss
East Siberian__    10    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______    8    k   gain
Kara_________   -14    k   loss
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 64 k, 5 k less than the 2010's average gain of 69k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 536 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,083 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 300 k more than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 384 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 209 k less than 2012
_______________________________
___________________________________________________________________
NSIDC Total AREA as at 16-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,507,307 KM2

Sea ice area gain on this day 71 k, 19 k less than the 2010's average gain of 90 k

- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.
- 2020 Area is 652 k less than the 2010's average
- 2020 Area is 1,292 k less than the 2000's average
- 2020 Area is 484 k more than 2016
- 2020 Area is 367 k less than 2019
- 2020 Area is 421 k less than 2012
___________________________________________
Note: Click an image for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1880 on: November 18, 2020, 04:32:20 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 17th, 2020:
     8,805,658 km2, an increase of 38,648 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.
   
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2020, 04:42:26 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1881 on: November 18, 2020, 10:29:27 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,805,658 KM2 as at 17-Nov-2020

- Extent gain on this day 39k, 16 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 55k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5,251 k, which is 233 k, 5% more than the 10 year average of 5,018 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  341 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  388 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  371 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  768 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  561 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 50.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 114 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.66 million km2, 0.22 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1882 on: November 18, 2020, 03:32:46 PM »
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 17-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 8,999,071 KM2         
         
Total EXTENT         
 8,999,071    km2      
-541,253    km2   <   2010's average.
-380,577    km2   <   2019
-1,100,562    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    57    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    63    k   gain
Central Seas___   -7    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    40    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    9    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    10    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    -    k   loss
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Kara_________   -22    k   loss
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 57 k, 5 k less than the 2010's average gain of 62k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 541 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,101 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 357 k more than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 381 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 245 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________________________________         
NSIDC Total AREA as at 17-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,556,403 KM2         
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 49 k, 26 k less than the 2010's average gain of 75 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 678 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,318 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 553 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 335 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 508 k less than 2012
_____________________________________________
Another day of less than average area and extent gains.   
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1883 on: November 18, 2020, 03:36:33 PM »
NSIDC Extent - a bit more

there are only 2 seas showing strong daily extent gains at the moment - Greenland & Hudson Bay.

Extent gains in the other seas that are still in play are avergae to below average or in reverse (e.g. the Kara). The Central Arctic is in a dithering mode.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1884 on: November 18, 2020, 07:22:35 PM »
NSIDC Area Graph for Central Arctic

Once upon a time the Central Arctic was a solid lump.
But here we are more than 2 months into the freezing season and the Central Arctic Area graph has still got the wobbles (and area is nearly 300k below the 2010's average). That implies, at least to me, a certain lack of solidity of the ice there that allows such a wobbly graph.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1885 on: November 19, 2020, 04:57:28 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 18th, 2020:
     8,829,612 km2, an increase of 23,954 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 11 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.
    2005 and 2006 are without an official value, average used.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2020, 05:13:23 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1886 on: November 19, 2020, 10:28:08 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,829,612 KM2 as at 18-Nov-2020

- Extent gain on this day 24k, 24 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 48k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5,275 k, which is 211 k, 4% more than the 10 year average of 5,064 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  426 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  509 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  440 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  809 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  585 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 51.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 113 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.63 million km2, 0.24 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1887 on: November 19, 2020, 02:56:16 PM »
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 18-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,045,487 KM2         
         
Total EXTENT         
 9,045,487    km2      
-558,896    km2   <   2010's average.
-393,830    km2   <   2019
-1,124,667    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    46    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    60    k   gain
Central Seas___   -14    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    35    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    11    k   gain
Barents ______    17    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____    -    k   loss
CAA_________    -    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Kara_________   -28    k   loss
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 46 k, 18 k less than the 2010's average gain of 64k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 559 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,125 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 422 k more than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 394 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 302 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________________________________         
NSIDC Total AREA as at 18-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,587,635 KM2         
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 31 k, 35 k less than the 2010's average gain of 66 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 713 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,368 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 634 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 324 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 602 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1888 on: November 20, 2020, 04:42:26 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 19th, 2020:
     8,867,280 km2, an increase of 37,668 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 11 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.
    2006 is without an official value, average used.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2020, 04:49:58 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1889 on: November 20, 2020, 10:10:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,867,280 KM2 as at 19-Nov-2020

- Extent gain on this day 38k, 13 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 51k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5,312 k, which is 202 k, 4% more than the 10 year average of 5,110 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  483 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  565 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  538 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  872 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  598 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 51.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 112 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.62 million km2, 0.26 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
The 2016-17 freezing season ended with the current record low maximum sea ice extent.
However, from now on the remaining freeze for that year is very much the highest in the last 10 years and more, at 17% above the average. 2019-20 remaining freeze was just 7% above the 10 year average.

_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1890 on: November 20, 2020, 03:02:07 PM »
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 19-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,090,823 KM2         
         
Total EXTENT         
 9,090,823    km2      
-581,148    km2   <   2010's average.
-413,973    km2   <   2019
-1,151,438    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    45    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    50    k   gain
Central Seas___   -5    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    43    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______    9    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
Beaufort_____    -    k   loss
CAA_________    -    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    14    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________   -16    k   loss
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 45 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average gain of 68k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 581 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,151 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 491 k more than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 414 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 401 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________________________________         
NSIDC Total AREA as at 19-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,633,341 KM2         
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 46 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average gain of 69 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 736 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,405 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 707 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 323 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 684 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1891 on: November 20, 2020, 03:37:53 PM »
As I have said, in the freezing season seas ice extent gain is ahead of area gain.
Nevertheless, that can obscure that which may be more important.

The Latev extent graph shows the sea 100% full up ice by the 18th November.
But the Laptev area graph shows sea ice area below maximum by nearly 150,000 km2, and nearly 100,000 km2 below the 2010's average.

Thus the extent graph conceals the gradual weakening of winter sea ice.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1892 on: November 21, 2020, 04:57:29 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 20th, 2020:
     8,960,902 km2, an increase of 93,622 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2020, 05:14:13 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1893 on: November 21, 2020, 10:45:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,960,902 KM2 as at 20-Nov-2020

- Extent gain on this day 94k, 22 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 72k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5,406 k, which is 226 k, 4% more than the 10 year average of 5,180 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  447 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  558 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  540 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  874 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  577 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 52.5% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 111 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.64 million km2, 0.24 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1894 on: November 21, 2020, 01:10:07 PM »
Thank you for the timely updates...sipping coffee as I read them.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1895 on: November 21, 2020, 02:42:50 PM »
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 20-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,151,054 KM2         
         
Total EXTENT         
 9,151,054    km2      
-587,683    km2   <   2010's average.
-419,084    km2   <   2019
-1,155,021    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    60    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    56    k   gain
Central Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -7    k   loss
Bering _______    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    32    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____    14    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
Beaufort_____    -    k   loss
CAA_________    -    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    19    k   gain
Laptev_______    -    k   loss
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 60 k, 7 k less than the 2010's average gain of 67k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 588 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,155 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 557 k more than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 419 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 469 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________________________________         
NSIDC Total AREA as at 20-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,700,240 KM2         
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 67 k, 1 k less than the 2010's average gain of 68 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 737 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,412 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 775 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 332 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 736 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1896 on: November 22, 2020, 04:44:43 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 21st, 2020:
     9,121,696 km2, a century break increase of 160,794 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2020, 04:56:31 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1897 on: November 22, 2020, 10:43:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,121,696 KM2 as at 21-Nov-2020

- Extent gain on this day 161k, 76 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 85k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5,567 k, which is 301 k, 6% more than the 10 year average of 5,266 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  352 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  521 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  458 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  805 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  501 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 53.4% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 110 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.72 million km2, 0.16 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
back to above average extent gains, for how many days?
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1898 on: November 22, 2020, 03:10:05 PM »
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 21-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,210,855 KM2         
         
Total EXTENT         
 9,210,855    km2      
-598,392    km2   <   2010's average.
-434,049    km2   <   2019
-1,152,394    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    60    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    44    k   gain
Central Seas___    16    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    36    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    11    k   gain
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
Beaufort_____    -    k   loss
CAA_________    -    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_    23    k   gain
Laptev_______    -    k   loss
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 60 k, 11 k less than the 2010's average gain of 71k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 598 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,152 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 592 k more than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 434 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 524 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________________________________         
NSIDC Total AREA as at 21-Nov-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,770,365 KM2         
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 70 k, 0 k less than the 2010's average gain of 70 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 738 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,404 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 801 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 371 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 775 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1899 on: November 23, 2020, 04:35:36 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 22nd, 2020:
     9,304,459 km2, a century break increase of 182,763 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 04:47:46 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.