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Wherestheice

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #400 on: March 26, 2020, 05:14:28 AM »
Wow things have really accelerated here recently. Considering the winter maximum was so much higher than recent years, this must mean that it was only very weak ice, and now we are seeing the correction to truly reflect the state of the ice?
"When the ice goes..... F***

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #401 on: March 26, 2020, 05:28:58 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 25th, 2020:
     13,682,550 km2, the 2nd century drop of the melting season: -142,266 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
2018 and 2006 had an increase of extent on March 26th, so tomorrow 2020 only needs to have a drop of -19,002 km2 to become the 3rd lowest on record and a drop of -40,116 km2 to become the 2nd lowest on record.

In fact, the 3 years (2006, 2017 & 2018) had some extent increases on the following days. So, if 2020 has an accumulated drop of -110,515 km2 on the next 4 days or -106,951 km2 on the next 5 days, 2020 will become the lowest on record.

Afterwards (from March 30st), 2020 will need to compete with 2019, year that will take the lead of being the lowest on record.

[ Sorry for making so many corrections. Hope that it is fine now.  ;) ]
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 06:25:07 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #402 on: March 26, 2020, 08:30:39 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,824,816 km2(March 24, 2020)


- An extent loss of 119k followed by an extent loss of 142k is a 2 day total sea ice loss 261k, which might well be a record for the month of March .
Note that 2019 has the record for the one day March loss daily extent loss, 166k on the 30 March


- Extent loss on this day 142 k, 144 k more than the average -ve loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of -2 k (i.e. a gain of 2k),
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 765 k, 519 k (210%) more than the 10 year average of 246 k.
- Extent is 10th 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 220 k less than 2007
- Extent is 869 k less than 2012
- Extent is 141 k less than 2016
- Extent is   74 k less than 2019
- Extent is  315 k (1.2%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done., and 173 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.98 million km2, 0.80 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +2.3 & +0.9 celsius.
____________________________________
ps: Some people wanted the daily change graph (Arc2) to show 2019 as well as 2012 (te record low minmum year). I have not added 2019 to the graph - but the last image is a copy of graph Arc2 with the 2019 daily change instead of 2012.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #403 on: March 26, 2020, 08:51:31 AM »
Insolation levels are still very, very low and the ocean is losing heat which means there is less energy later in water as more heat is being lost when sea ice area is smallish. Later in spring this is opposite.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #404 on: March 26, 2020, 06:05:26 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,665,657 km2

This day's large area loss is again largely confined to  the peripheral seas apart from a medium-sized area loss in the Kara Sea.

For the 26th (tomorrow's posting) and a further two days, the 10 year average daily change is a smallish gain. An oddity, but shows the last feeble grasp of winter.

                                 
Total Area         
 12,665,657    km2      
-207,821    km2   <   2010's average.
-47,440    km2   <   2019
-575,772    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -66    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -31    k   loss
 Central Seas___     9    k   gain
 Other Seas____    -44    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -10    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -1    k   loss
 Greenland____    -4    k   loss
 Barents ______    -16    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -30    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -12    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 66 k, 69 k more than the 2010's average loss of 3 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 208 k.
- 2020 Area  less than 2019 by 47 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 576 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th 8th 7th[/s] 6th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +2.3 & +0.9 celsius.

Winds variable in strength and direction, & probably still the major factor in the amount of sea ice loss and where it is happening?
________________________________________
Hudson Bay Area column is resurrected from where it was hiding. Not the faintest idea of when or how I did that
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kassy

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #405 on: March 26, 2020, 07:11:04 PM »
For the 26th (tomorrow's posting) and a further two days, the 10 year average daily change is a smallish gain. An oddity, but shows the last feeble grasp of winter.

Now lets see what this year does.
It was an interesting freeze season and this looks like a promising melt season...

Thanks for all the work!
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #406 on: March 26, 2020, 07:43:54 PM »
First analysis of the sea ice extent - relative area wise - of this melting season. Last 11 days Mar 15- Mar 25, 2020.
As gerontocrat correctly wrote, it all depended on three seas:
St Lawrence   - 69%
Bering           - 36%
Okhotsk         - 16%
Small and negligible losses (-1 to -4%) in Baffin, Beaufort and Chukchi Seas
Small and negligible gains (+1 to +4%) in Kara, Laptev, Barents and Grønland Seas
The rest was more or less constant.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #407 on: March 26, 2020, 08:07:04 PM »
First analysis of the sea ice extent - relative area wise - of this melting season. Last 11 days Mar 15- Mar 25, 2020.
As gerontocrat correctly wrote, it all depended on three seas:
St Lawrence   - 69%
Bering           - 36%
Okhotsk         - 16%
Small and negligible losses (-1 to -4%) in Baffin, Beaufort and Chukchi Seas
Small and negligible gains (+1 to +4%) in Kara, Laptev, Barents and Grønland Seas
The rest was more or less constant.
The graphs show the same.

Look also at the Big Beast - the 3.22 million km2 of the Central Arctic Sea. Still totally inviolate and concentration (Area divided by Extent) at almost at 100% of absolute maximum.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #408 on: March 26, 2020, 11:40:54 PM »
NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average:   12,665,657  km2(March 25, 2020)

Analysis as in JAXA postings


- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 697 k, 360k (107%) more than the 10 year average of 337 k.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  15 k less than 2007
- Extent is 713 k less than 2012
- Extent is   80 k more than 2016
- Extent is   47 k less than 2019
- Extent is  208 k (1.6%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 3.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done., and 173 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table NSDC-Area1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 2.82 million km2, 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 minimum sea ice area of 2.25 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #409 on: March 27, 2020, 04:42:14 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 26th, 2020:
     13,632,064 km2, a drop of -50,486 km2.
     2020 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #410 on: March 27, 2020, 12:25:31 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:   13,632,064 km2(March 26, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 50 k, 44 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 6 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 816 k, 563 k (223%) more than the 10 year average of 252 k.
- Extent is 10th 4th 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 303 k less than 2007
- Extent is 815 k less than 2012
- Extent is 172 k less than 2016
- Extent is   97 k less than 2019
- Extent is  359 k (2.6%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done., and 172 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.93 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

Not a clue & no time to find out.
____________________________________
ps: One Swallow does not make a Summer.

The only year with lower extent on this day is 2017. But that year's minimum was nearly 200k more than the 10 year average.
2012 Extent on this day is + 800k more than 2020. Who would have thought then that 2012 would be the year of the record low minimum ?

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #411 on: March 27, 2020, 11:13:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,615,868  km2

This day's large area loss is again largely confined to  the peripheral seas apart from a another medium-sized area loss in the Kara Sea, and the first loss for some time in the Chukchi.

For this day and a further two days, the 10 year average daily change is a smallish gain. An oddity, but shows the last feeble grasp of winter.

                                 
Total Area         
 12,615,868    km2      
-263,268    km2   <   2010's average.
-14,814    km2   <   2019
-610,997    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -50    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -40    k   loss
 Central Seas___     8    k   gain
 Other Seas____    -18    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -9    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -10    k   loss
 Greenland____    -5    k   loss
 Barents ______    -15    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 50 k, 56 k more less than the 2010's average loss gain of 6 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 263 k.
- 2020 Area  less than 2019 by 15 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 611 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th 8th 7th 6th[/s] 5th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +2.1 & +1.3 celsius.

Winds variable in strength and direction, & probably still the major factor in the amount of sea ice loss and where it is happening?
________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

wdmn

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #412 on: March 28, 2020, 06:50:45 AM »
In lieu of Juan:

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 27th, 2020:
     13,579,397 km2, a drop of -52,667 km2.
     2020 is the 2nd lowest on record (behind 2017: 13,542,425 km2).

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #413 on: March 28, 2020, 09:43:55 AM »
JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent:
The top ten list of March 27th (all values in M km²)
2017   13.54
2020   13.58
2006   13.62
2018   13.70
2019   13.73
2016   13.80
2005   13.83
2015   13.84
2007   13.91
2011   13.96
(2010s ave 13.99)
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #414 on: March 28, 2020, 10:47:08 AM »
Juan - r u OK ?

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:   13,579,397 km2(March 27, 2020)

Extent on this day is less than all years except 2017 which is 37k less. However, on the 28th March he daily change in 2017 was a gain of 29 k. An extent loss of of 6k or more on the 28th will make 2020, however briefly, lowest in the satellite record.

- Extent loss on this day 53 k, 56 k different from  the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 3 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 868 k, 619 k (248%) more than the 10 year average of 249 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 332 k less than 2007
- Extent is 959 k less than 2012
- Extent is 221 k less than 2016
- Extent is 156 k less than 2019
- Extent is 415 k (3.0%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 171 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.88 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
ps: One Swallow does not make a Summer.

The only year with lower extent on this day is 2017. But that year is likely to be history from the 28th March
2012 Extent on this day is + 41 k shy of 1 million km2  more than 2020. Who would have thought then that 2012 would be the year of the record low minimum ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #415 on: March 28, 2020, 05:31:15 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,590,318 km2

Sea ice area loss declining day by day - but waves of large then small ice losses seem to be the norm
                                 
Total Area         
 12,590,318    km2      
-296,053    km2   <   2010's average.
 31,061    km2   >   2019
-620,723    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -26    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -30    k   loss
 Central Seas___     4    k   gain
 Other Seas____     1    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -8    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -3    k   loss
 Greenland____    -7    k   loss
 Barents ______    -13    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Sea ice area loss on this day 26 k, 33 k more less than the 2010's average loss gain of 7 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 296 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 31 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 621 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th 8th 7th 6th 5th 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #416 on: March 29, 2020, 05:50:12 AM »
Juan - r u OK ?
I'm fine. Thank you for asking! And thanks, wdmn and Stephan for the posts!
Sorry that I missed my post yesterday.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 28th, 2020:
     13,559,443 km2, a drop of -19,954 km2.
     2020 is now the lowest on record.   :P
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 06:00:17 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #417 on: March 29, 2020, 12:35:48 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:   13,559,443 km2(March 28, 2020)

Extent on this day is #1. The probability is only for one day more due to 113k and 166k losses in 2019 in the next 2 days. After that - ? -

- Extent loss on this day 20k, 2 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 22 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 888 k, 617 k (228%) more than the 10 year average of 271 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 298 k less than 2007
- Extent is 963 k less than 2012
- Extent is 221 k less than 2016
- Extent is 142 k less than 2019
- Extent is 414 k (3.0%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 170 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.88 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #418 on: March 29, 2020, 08:03:50 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,582,200 km2

Sea ice area loss continues declining day by day - but waves of large then small ice daily changes seem to be the norm
                                 
Total Area         
 12,582,200 km2      
-306,647    km2   <   2010's average.
 83,352    km2   >   2019
-612,793    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -8    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -22    k   loss
 Central Seas___     8    k   gain
 Other Seas____     6    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -5    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -2    k   loss
 Greenland____    -7    k   loss
 Barents ______    -9    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Sea ice area loss on this day 8 k, 10 k more less than the 2010's average loss gain of 2 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 307 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 83 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 613 k

- 2020 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Rodius

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #419 on: March 30, 2020, 01:25:12 AM »
Is it my imagination or has nsidc extent numbers not been delivered for two days running?

(Yes, I know it is the methadone of data, but I like it like that)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #420 on: March 30, 2020, 05:36:12 AM »
Is it my imagination or has nsidc extent numbers not been delivered for two days running?

(Yes, I know it is the methadone of data, but I like it like that)

They've been uploading files daily but there's no new data in them.

This is the last few rows from the .CSV file uploaded this morning [ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/N_seaice_extent_daily_v3.0.csv]


Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #421 on: March 30, 2020, 05:48:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 29th, 2020:
     13,628,026 km2, an increase of 68,583 km2.
     2020 is now 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #422 on: March 30, 2020, 11:59:55 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 13,628,026 km2(March 29, 2020)

Only made one day as #1

- Extent loss gain on this day 69k, 101 k less more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 32 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 820 k, 517 k (171%) more than the 10 year average of 302 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 150 k less than 2007
- Extent is 908 k less than 2012
- Extent is  69 k less than 2016
- Extent is  39 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 313 k (2.2%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 3.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 169 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.98 million km2, 0.80 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #423 on: March 30, 2020, 07:39:58 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 29 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,579,677 km2

Sea ice area loss almost stalled
                                 
Total Area         
 12,579,677    km2      
-308,174    km2   <   2010's average.
 133,875    km2   >   2019
-601,134    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -3    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -4    k   loss
 Central Seas___     1    k   gain
 Other Seas____     1    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     1    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -1    k   loss
 Greenland____     2    k   gain
 Barents ______    -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 3 k, 2 k more than the 2010's average loss of 1 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 308 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 134 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 601 k
- 2020 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
ps: Missing updates of NH daily extent

Missing for the third day.
Sent e-mail yesterday to NSIDC also mentioning that all else seems to be updated OK.
NSIDC have sent an answer
Thank you for contacting the NSIDC and for letting us know about this issue. We are currently looking into it to try and resolve it.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #424 on: March 31, 2020, 05:49:03 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 30th, 2020:
     13,621,422 km2, a small drop of -6,604 km2.
     2020 is now 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #425 on: March 31, 2020, 12:58:34 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,621,422 km2(March 30, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 7k, 24k ess than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 31 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 826 k, 493 k (148%) more than the 10 year average of 333 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  198 k MORE than 2019

On average 3.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 168 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.00 million km2, 0.82 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #426 on: March 31, 2020, 07:57:54 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,495,253 km2

2 days ago  I sent an e-mail to NSIDC about missing NH-Extent data. They now tell me that it is fixed. They did not tell me that the fix goes back to the 26th March and substantially changes AREA data for all the seas from that date.

So my posting for those days are based on duff data. Oh well, there has to be a first time for everything, even a SNAFU in which I am not the culprit.

                                 
Total Area         
 12,495,253    km2      
-385,800    km2   <   2010's average.
 104,887    km2   >   2019
-674,428    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -25    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas     13    k   gain
 Central Seas___    -12    k   loss
 Other Seas____    -26    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     3    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -6    k   loss
 Greenland____     8    k   gain
 Barents ______     7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -9    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -27    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 25 k, 18 k more than the 2010's average loss of 7 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 386 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 105 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 674 k
- 2020 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #427 on: April 01, 2020, 05:54:50 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 31st, 2020:
     13,599,874 km2, a drop of -21,548 km2.
     2020 is 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Ktb

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #428 on: April 01, 2020, 09:42:06 AM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation.

The max was reached on March 3rd. Extent was 14,447,631 km2. As of March 31st, extent is 13,599,874 km2. With on average 166 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -75,903 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

We had a 10 day stretch in early March with many small gains and small losses, the result was extent dropped by only -14,622 km2 during that period. Thus greatly hampering the massive impact on averages that our two century drops had.

Total extent loss so far this season is -847,767 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -30,277 km2. This is the 3rd highest average daily loss from maximum to March 31st (2007-2020), behind 2014 (Minimum on March 20th) and 2019 (Minimum on March 12). (See Attachment 2).

Although it is worth noting that the total extent loss from maximum is 2nd highest on record behind only 2019. 2019 lost ~50,000 km2 more in 9 fewer days. Wow. (See Attachment 3).

Keep in mind that there are a wide range of minimums since 2007, ranging from Feb 24th to March 31st.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #429 on: April 01, 2020, 09:59:02 AM »
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from April 1 to their respective minimums (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From April 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement is the 6th highest value. Keep in mind that 2018's minimum was reached on September 21st, and that 2016's minimum was reached on September 7th. (See attachment 2). End
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #430 on: April 01, 2020, 10:55:20 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,599,874 km2(March 31, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 22k, 11k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 11 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 848 k, 504 k (146%) more than the 10 year average of 344 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  225 k MORE than 2019

On average 3.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 167 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.99 million km2, 0.81 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 11:16:06 AM by gerontocrat »
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #431 on: April 01, 2020, 11:14:31 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,599,874 km2(March 31, 2020 - Some other stuff

March Monthly Averages - (March and September graphs attached)

March 2020 average shows the 4th highest deviation above the the linear trend in the satellite record.

The March average is only 95k above the February average, compared with a 235k average increase in the the last 10 years. The recovery in Arctic sea ice, if it was a recovery, was halted and reversed in March.

Comparing the deviations in March and September suggests no meaningful correlation between the March maximum and the following September minimum?

Will 2020 play catch-up with 2019?

After exhaustive research and deep thought, I ain't gotta clue.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #432 on: April 01, 2020, 04:48:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 31 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,480,575 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,480,575    km2      
-385,389    km2   <   2010's average.
 141,774    km2   >   2019
-676,030    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -15    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas     9    k   gain
 Central Seas___    -6    k   loss
 Other Seas____    -18    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     0    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -9    k   loss
 Greenland____     1    k   gain
 Barents ______     17    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -8    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    11    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -18    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Sea ice area loss on this day 15 k, 0 k more than the 2010's average loss of 15 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 386 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 142 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 676 k
- 2020 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Loads more ice sent into the Barents. Looks like strong winds sending more into the Barents and / or the Greenland sea in the next few days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #433 on: April 02, 2020, 06:16:08 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 1st, 2020:
     13,583,490 km2, a drop of -16,384 km2.
     2020 is now 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #434 on: April 02, 2020, 01:07:18 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,583,490 km2(April 1, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 16 k, 5k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 864 k, 499 k (137%) more than the 10 year average of 365 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  275 k MORE than 2019

On average 3.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 166 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.00 million km2, 0.82 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #435 on: April 02, 2020, 03:40:54 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 April 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,462,278 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,462,278    km2      
-381,959    km2   <   2010's average.
 179,752    km2   >   2019
-683,445    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -18    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas     8    k   gain
 Central Seas___    -3    k   loss
 Other Seas____    -23    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -1    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -12    k   loss
 Greenland____    -1    k   loss
 Barents ______     22    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    12    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -21    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 18 k, 4 k less than the 2010's average loss of 22 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 382 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 180 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 683 k
- 2020 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Yet more ice sent into the Barents. Looks like strong winds sending more into the Barents and / or the Greenland sea in the next few days & then quietening down.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #436 on: April 03, 2020, 05:50:11 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 2nd, 2020:
     13,557,918 km2, a drop of -25,572 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #437 on: April 03, 2020, 10:39:57 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 13,557,918 km2(April 2, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 26 k, 2 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 28 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 890 k, 496 k (126%) more than the 10 year average of 393 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  323 k MORE than 2019

On average 4.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 165 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.00 million km2, 0.82 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #438 on: April 03, 2020, 05:01:42 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 April 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,448,274 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,448,274    km2      
-375,898    km2   <   2010's average.
 219,507    km2   >   2019
-686,878    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -14    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas     1    k   gain
 Central Seas___     1    k   gain
 Other Seas____    -17    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -4    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -8    k   loss
 Greenland____    -5    k   loss
 Barents ______     19    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -14    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 14 k, 6 k less than the 2010's average loss of 20 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 376 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 220 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 687 k
- 2020 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Even more ice sent into the Barents. Looks like strong winds sending more into the Barents and / or the Greenland sea in the next 3 days or so & then quietening down.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #439 on: April 04, 2020, 06:02:05 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 3rd, 2020:
     13,525,457 km2, a drop of -32,461 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #440 on: April 04, 2020, 10:47:46 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 13,525,457 km2(April 3, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 32 k, 7 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 39 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 922 k, 489 k (113%) more than the 10 year average of 433 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  326 k MORE than 2019

On average 4.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 164 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.01 million km2, 0.83 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #441 on: April 04, 2020, 04:42:49 PM »
NSIDC Total nArea as at 3 April 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,427,857 km2

I've moved all the peripheral seas into one section. I think it makes more sense.
                                 
Total Area         
 12,427,857    km2      
-376,926    km2   <   2010's average.
 247,247    km2   >   2019
-693,049    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -20    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -16    k   loss
 Central Seas___    -4    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
 Bering _______    -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -8    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -11    k   loss
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
 Greenland____    -5    k   loss
 Barents ______     17    k   gain
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__    9    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 20 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 19 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 377 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 247 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 693 k
- 2020 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Even more ice sent into the Barents. Looks like strong winds sending more into the Barents and / or the Greenland sea in the next 2 days or so & then quietening down (and starting up again by the 8th April?).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #442 on: April 04, 2020, 06:09:24 PM »
I've moved all the peripheral seas into one section. I think it makes more sense.

I also think it makes more sense. I even would have used the same order (from Okhotsk to Barents)
Thank you anyway for your daily reports on extent and area and for the clear graphs
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #443 on: April 05, 2020, 10:38:15 AM »
Arctic Sea Ice Extent top twelve list as of April 4 (all values in M km²). Arrows indicate the change of ranking since March 27.
2019  13.13 ↑
2018  13.39 ↑
2016  13.42 ↑
2020  13.46 ↓
2015  13.50 ↑
2017  13.55 ↓
2006  13.58 ↓
(2010s ave 13.77)
2005  13.80 ↓
2007  13.65 →
2011  13.80 →
2014  13.85 →
1996  14.05 ↑
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #444 on: April 05, 2020, 12:19:36 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 13,459,304 km2(April 4, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 66 k, 20 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 40 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 988 k, 510 k (107%) more than the 10 year average of 478 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  327 k MORE than 2019

On average 4.8% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 163 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.99 million km2, 0.81 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #445 on: April 05, 2020, 02:08:06 PM »
Welcome back ASIF!  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 4rd, 2020:
     13,459,304 km2, a drop of -66,153 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #446 on: April 05, 2020, 04:37:38 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 April 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,397,190 km2

With the space created by moving all the peripheral seas into one table, I am able to add the overall NSIDC extent data into the first table attached.
                                 
Total Area         
 12,397,190    km2      
-385,777    km2   <   2010's average.
 238,880    km2   >   2019
-707,269    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -31    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -27    k   loss
 Central Seas___    -4    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
 Bering _______    -10    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -8    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -16    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
 Greenland____    -5    k   loss
 Barents ______     13    k   gain
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__    8    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 31 k, 9 k more than the 2010's average loss of 22 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 386 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 239 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 707 k
- 2020 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Yet even more ice sent into the Barents. Looks like strong winds sending more into the Barents and / or the Greenland sea in the next 2 days or so & then quietening down (and starting up again by the 8th April?)
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #447 on: April 05, 2020, 05:16:05 PM »
NSIDC SEA ICE AREA - SOME GRAPHS

Spring is gradually pushing its way into the Arctic. One by one the Arctic Seas are waking up from their stormy and restless winter hibernation....

Pacific Gateway.

The Bering Sea ice falling to well below average area,
The Chukchi seems in a maybe mode,
The Beaufort has woken up,
as has the ESS.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #448 on: April 05, 2020, 05:27:41 PM »
NSIDC SEA ICE AREA - SOME GRAPHS

Spring is gradually pushing its way into the Arctic. One by one the Arctic Seas are waking up from their stormy and restless winter hibernation....

Pacific Gateway.

......and the Okhotsk sea ice goes down towards oblivion.

Atlantic Front
It looks like export from the Central Arctic Sea into the Greenland & Barents Seas continues apace.

Baffin Bay The impressively slow freeze is now being matched by significant sea ice loss along the entire length of the Canadian East seaboard and across to the West coast of Greenland.

A signal for Greenland Ice Sheet melt this year?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #449 on: April 06, 2020, 05:50:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 5th, 2020:
     13,388,020 km2, a drop of -71,284 km2.
     2020 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.