2020 Sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 14 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,897,388 km2

Total Area           11,897,388    km2        119,422    km2   >   2010's average.  12,140    km2   >   2019 -308,267    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     39    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     22    k   gain  Central Seas__    -2    k   loss  Other Seas___     18    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -11    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____     4    k   gain  Greenland____     8    k   gain  Barents ______     22    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__   -0    k   loss Central Arctic_    6    k   gain           Kara_________    2    k   gain Laptev_______   -3    k   loss Chukchi______   -3    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    19    k   gain St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Daily gain 39 k, 4 k LESS than the 2010's average of 43 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 119 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 12 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 797 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +3.3 to +1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably, with extreme +ve temp anomalies spreading to over most of the Arctic Ocean. Canada & Alaska and the Atlantic front cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea, but cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast.

This pattern of warmth and winds looks looks set to continue for a bit longer but maybe changes on the horizon..
________________________________________________________________________

[Phil.]

Extent gain on this day 84 k, 34 k less more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 50 k,

[charles_oil]

Keep up the great work, geron and Juan...sounds like a 70s pop group
GERON AND JUAN!!!
But I thank you for the thankless (not anymore) daily task!

Plus one - many thanks for all the regular data - hard work and much appreciated !

[Juan C. García]

Keep up the great work, geron and Juan...sounds like a 70s pop group
GERON AND JUAN!!!
But I thank you for the thankless (not anymore) daily task!

Plus one - many thanks for all the regular data - hard work and much appreciated !

You are welcome. 

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 15^th, 2020:
     13,014,754 km², an increase of 95,612 km².
     2020 is now 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,014,754 km2（January 15, 2020）

- Extent gain on this day 96 k, 41 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 55 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,051 k, 500 k (5.8%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,551 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 594 k more than 2017
- Extent is 26 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 21 k (0.2%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 86.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 55 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.31 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.43 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +3.9 to +1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm. Bering and Chukchi very warm, with extreme +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean. Canada & Alaska and the Atlantic front cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea, but cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast.

This pattern of warmth and winds looks looks set to continue for a bit longer but looks like significant changes on the horizon..
____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 15 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,955,812 km2

Total Area           11,955,812    km2        139,102    km2   >   2010's average.  53,067    km2   >   2019 -291,566    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     58    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     38    k   gain  Central Seas__     2    k   gain  Other Seas___     18    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -8    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____     12    k   gain  Greenland____     9    k   gain  Barents ______     26    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_    6    k   gain           Kara_________    11    k   gain Laptev_______   -4    k   loss Chukchi______   -6    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    17    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 58 k, 19 k MORE than the 2010's average of 39 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 139 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 53 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 859 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +3.9 to +1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm. Bering and Chukchi very warm, with extreme +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean. Canada & Alaska and the Atlantic front cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea, but cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast.

This pattern of warmth and winds looks looks set to continue for a bit longer but looks like significant changes on the horizon..
________________________________________________________________________

[Stephan]

I wish that Geron and Juan could report on ice areas and extents as large as they were in the 1970s.....

[Rodius]

I wish that Geron and Juan could report on ice areas and extents as large as they were in the 1970s.....

The satellite records only began in 1979

[Tor Bejnar]

I'll take "1979" ice extent and area (and volume).  Beats where we're going.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 16^th, 2020:
     13,063,241 km², an increase of 48,487 km².
     2020 is 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

[Juan C. García]

I wish that Geron and Juan could report on ice areas and extents as large as they were in the 1970s.....

[coelho]

I wish that Geron and Juan could report on ice areas and extents as large as they were in the 1970s.....

So there's 'only' a 10% ice loss since the 1980s, correct? That's way less than I would assume based on the alarming messages.

Of course I see the trend and of course it IS alarming, but I'm just surprised that it's way less than I thought.


PS. Why these bizarre questions for a post? I'm a reader but I have not much knowledge. How should I know which river flows into Laptev Sea 

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,063,241 km2（January 16, 2020）

- Extent gain on this day 48 k, 6 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 42 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,099 k, 506 k (5.9%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,593 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 566 k more than 2017
- Extent is 15 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 68 k (0.5%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 87.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 54 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.31 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.43 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS 5 day outlook.
Overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +3.8 to -0.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side mostly relatively warm.
Bering will switch from warm to cold.
The extreme +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean will diminish to modest +ve anomalies.
Canada & Alaska will say mostly cold.
The Atlantic front cold will switch to modest +ve temp anomalies.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea.
The cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast look like diminishing allowing a more general dominance of winds and warmth from the south.
____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

I wish that Geron and Juan could report on ice areas and extents as large as they were in the 1970s.....

You could go to "Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica", currently 13th lowest and greater than 6 years from the 1980s and 1990s.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.msg244870.html#msg244870

But if you read the next post you will see my speculation that increased sea ice in the Antarctic might not be a good thing

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.msg244871.html#msg244871

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 16 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,000,402 km2

Total Area           12,000,402    km2        150,494    km2   >   2010's average.  67,038    km2   >   2019 -298,358    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     45    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     36    k   gain  Central Seas__    -6    k   loss  Other Seas___     15    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -9    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____     12    k   gain  Greenland____     10    k   gain  Barents ______     23    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__   -4    k   loss Central Arctic_    4    k   gain           Kara_________    13    k   gain Laptev_______   -3    k   loss Chukchi______   -12    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    14    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Daily gain 45 k, 12 k MORE than the 2010's average of 33 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 150 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 67 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 900 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS 5 day outlook.
Overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +3.8 to -0.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side mostly relatively warm.
Bering will switch from warm to cold.
The extreme +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean will diminish to modest +ve anomalies.
Canada & Alaska will say mostly cold.
The Atlantic front cold will switch to modest +ve temp anomalies.

NullSchool
Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea.
The cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast look like diminishing allowing a more general dominance of winds and warmth from the south.
________________________________________________________________________

[Neven]

So there's 'only' a 10% ice loss since the 1980s, correct? That's way less than I would assume based on the alarming messages.

Of course I see the trend and of course it IS alarming, but I'm just surprised that it's way less than I thought.

That's because it's winter and the ice can't move further than the shores, whether it's 1980 or 2020. If it could move further, it wouldn't go nearly as far in 2020 as it could in 1980.

Besides, we are talking extent which is 2D. Volume would paint a more accurate picture. Especially during summer, where I believe sea ice volume loss comes down to around 75%.

PS. Why these bizarre questions for a post? I'm a reader but I have not much knowledge. How should I know which river flows into Laptev Sea 

You can look it up. I'm trying to keep spambots at bay.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 17^th, 2020:
     13,120,139 km², an increase of 56,898 km².
     2020 is now 9^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,120,139 km2（January 17, 2020）

- Extent gain on this day 57 k, 33 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 24 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,156 k, 539 k (6.3%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,617 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 517 k more than 2017
- Extent is 42 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 102 k (0.8%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 87.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 53 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.35 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.47 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS 5 day outlook.
Overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +3.3 to -0.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side mostly relatively warm.
Bering switching from warm to cold.
The extreme +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean will diminish to modest +ve anomalies.
Canada & Alaska will say mostly cold.
The Atlantic front cold will switch to modest +ve temp anomalies.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea.
The cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast look like diminishing allowing a more general dominance of winds and warmth from the south for a day or two.
____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 17 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,032,147  km2

Total Area           12,032,147    km2        146,974    km2   >   2010's average.  38,046    km2   >   2019 -316,785    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     32    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     31    k   gain  Central Seas__    -16    k   loss  Other Seas___     17    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -6    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____     11    k   gain  Greenland____     10    k   gain  Barents ______     15    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__   -4    k   loss Central Arctic_    0    k   gain           Kara_________    7    k   gain Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Chukchi______   -14    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    11    k   gain St Lawrence___    4    k   gain Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 32 k, 3 k LESS than the 2010's average of 35 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 147 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 38 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 900 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS 5 day outlook.
Overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +3.3 to -0.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side mostly relatively warm.
Bering switching from warm to cold.
The extreme +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean will diminish to modest +ve anomalies.
Canada & Alaska will say mostly cold.
The Atlantic front cold will switch to modest +ve temp anomalies.

NullSchool
Southerly warm winds currently in the Bering Sea and entering the Pacific Gateway are likely to dissipate soon.
Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea.
The cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast look like diminishing allowing a more general dominance of winds and warmth from the south for a day or two.
________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

The Barents Sea ice daily area gain continues to be impressively strong,
while The Bering Sea  ice daily area loss continues to be impressively strong and a dip in Chukchi area.


However I would not be surprised to see a reversal after the next 3 or 4 days.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,174,294 km2（January 18, 2020）

- Extent gain on this day 54 k, 33 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,210 k, 572 k (6.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,638 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 523 k more than 2017
- Extent is 76 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 134 k (1.0%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 87.8% of extent gain for the the season done, 52 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.38 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.50 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS 5 day outlook.
Overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +2.9 to -1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side mostly relatively warm.
Bering switching from warm to cold.
The extreme +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean will diminish to modest +ve anomalies.
Canada & Alaska will say mostly cold.
The Atlantic front  mostly cold or very cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea.
The cold contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast look like being very variable.

Overall the outlook seems more favourable than not for the strong recovery in sea ice extent to continue.
____________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 18^th, 2020:
     13,174,294 km², an increase of 54,155 km².
     2020 is 9^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 18 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,066,112  km2

Total Area           12,066,112    km2        150,532    km2   >   2010's average. -800    km2   <   2019 -333,205    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     34    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     31    k   gain  Central Seas__    -14    k   loss  Other Seas___     17    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -0    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____     14    k   gain  Greenland____     9    k   gain  Barents ______     8    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss CAA_________   -0    k   loss East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss           Kara_________    5    k   gain Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Chukchi______   -10    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    10    k   gain St Lawrence___    4    k   gain Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain

Daily gain 34 k, 4 k MORE than the 2010's average of 30 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 151 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by <1 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 914 km2
- 2020 area 7th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS 5 day outlook.
Overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +2.9 to -1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side mostly relatively warm.
Bering switching from warm to cold.
The extreme +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean will diminish to modest +ve anomalies.
Canada & Alaska will say mostly cold.
The Atlantic front  mostly cold or very cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea.
The cold contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast look like being very variable.

Overall the outlook seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 19^th, 2020:
     13,260,794 km², an increase of 86,500 km².
     2020 is now 11^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,260,794 km2（January 19, 2020）

- Extent gain on this day 87 k, 44 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 43 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,297 k, 616 k (7.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,681 k.
- Extent is 11 th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 492 k more than 2017
- Extent is 111 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 178 k (1.4%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 88.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 51 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.42 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.54 million km2.
________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 19 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,103,918 km2

Total Area           12,103,918    km2        159,983    km2   >   2010's average. -27,342    km2   <   2019 -350,425    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     38    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     29    k   gain  Central Seas__    -6    k   loss  Other Seas___     15    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     4    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     12    k   gain  Greenland____     6    k   gain  Barents ______     6    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss CAA_________   -0    k   loss East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_    1    k   gain           Kara_________    5    k   gain Laptev_______    0    k   gain Chukchi______   -7    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    13    k   gain St Lawrence___    5    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Daily gain 38 k, 10 k MORE than the 2010's average of 28 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 160 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 27 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 924 km2
- 2020 area 7th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +1.6 to -1.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 20^th, 2020:
     13,292,492 km², an increase of 31,698 km².
     2020 is 11^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,292,492 km2（January 20, 2020）

- Extent gain on this day 32 k, 2 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 3 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,328 k, 617 k (7.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,711 k.
- Extent is 11 th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 424 k more than 2017
- Extent is 86 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 179 k (1.4%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 88.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 50 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.42 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.54 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +0.9 to -1.7 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi and the Atlantic Front cold to very cold.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 20 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,143,799 km2

Total Area           12,143,799    km2        170,071    km2   >   2010's average. -48,366    km2   <   2019 -361,038    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     40    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     20    k   gain  Central Seas__     3    k   gain  Other Seas___     17    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     5    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     11    k   gain  Greenland____     1    k   gain  Barents ______     3    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__   -0    k   loss Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss           Kara_________    5    k   gain Laptev_______    3    k   gain Chukchi______   -3    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    20    k   gain St Lawrence___    3    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss

Daily gain 40 k, 10 k MORE than the 2010's average of 30 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 170 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 48 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 921 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +0.9 to -1.7 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi and the Atlantic Front cold to very cold.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 21^st, 2020:
     13,332,633 km², an increase of 40,141 km².
     2020 is 11^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,332,633 km2（January 21, 2020）

- Extent gain on this day 40 k, 3 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 37 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,368 k, 620 k (7.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,748 k.
- Extent is 11 th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 359 k more than 2017
- Extent is 90 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 182 k (1.4%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 88.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 49 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.43 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.55 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +0.4 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi and the Atlantic Front cold to very cold.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________

[Tom_Mazanec]

When does the freezing season normally end, again? About the Vernal Equinox? Or earlier?

[pleun]

usually around the date of the maximum ?  see post above yours.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Thanks, pleun.
Should have looked closer.
Wow, the date is all the way from Feb 15 to 31 Mar. Why the wide variation, different air masses passing over the Pole? I don't recall, does the thaw have such a wide range of ending dates?

[gerontocrat]

Thanks, pleun.
Should have looked closer.
Wow, the date is all the way from Feb 15 to 31 Mar. Why the wide variation, different air masses passing over the Pole? I don't recall, does the thaw have such a wide range of ending dates?

At maximum sea ice extent /area change is of thin ice in peripheral seas.  Thus a small variation in winds / temperatures can halt or increase sea ice extent enough for an early or late maximum date.

Note that for a month or so after extent/area maximum, the Arctic Ocean is damn cold, and ice thickness continues to increase at a greater pace than ice is lost in the periphery. Hence ice VOLUME maximum is in April.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 21 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,199,967 km2

Total Area           12,199,967    km2        195,604    km2   >   2010's average. -63,066    km2   <   2019 -336,135    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     56    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     17    k   gain  Central Seas__     14    k   gain  Other Seas___     25    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     10    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     9    k   gain  Greenland____     0    k   gain  Barents ______    -2    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    3    k   gain Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss           Kara_________   -0    k   loss Laptev_______    4    k   gain Chukchi______    8    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    23    k   gain St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain 56 k, 15 k MORE than the 2010's average of 31 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 196 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 63 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 920 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +0.4 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi and the Atlantic Front cold to very cold.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________

[Tor Bejnar]

When does the freezing season normally end, again? About the Vernal Equinox? Or earlier?

March 13 (or thereabouts), according to the JAXA graph Gerontocrat just published, excerpt below (yellow arrow and red type added):

[jdallen]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 21^st, 2020:
     13,332,633 km², an increase of 40,141 km².
     2020 is 11^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

Interesting statistical bit to note - the 6th through 15th years on that chart lie in a band only 250k km2 wide, with 2020 right about square in the middle of it.  Still deciding what meaning it has to over all system behavior.

[Shared Humanity]

Thanks, pleun.
Should have looked closer.
Wow, the date is all the way from Feb 15 to 31 Mar. Why the wide variation, different air masses passing over the Pole? I don't recall, does the thaw have such a wide range of ending dates?

At maximum sea ice extent /area change is of thin ice in peripheral seas.  Thus a small variation in winds / temperatures can halt or increase sea ice extent enough for an early or late maximum date.

Note that for a month or so after extent/area maximum, the Arctic Ocean is damn cold, and ice thickness continues to increase at a greater pace than ice is lost in the periphery. Hence ice VOLUME maximum is in April.

And since volume is the most important metric, I would base the end of the freeze season on this.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 22^nd, 2020:
     13,382,493 km², an increase of 49,860 km².
     2020 is now 13^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 21^st, 2020:
     13,332,633 km², an increase of 40,141 km².
     2020 is 11^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

Interesting statistical bit to note - the 6th through 15th years on that chart lie in a band only 250k km2 wide, with 2020 right about square in the middle of it.  Still deciding what meaning it has to over all system behavior.

I wonder if this is the time when more ASI implies that the ocean loses less heat. The worst September minimums seem to have more ice now. But I never know what is going to happen in September. So let's wait and see.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,382,493 km2（January 22, 2020）

- Extent gain on this day 50 k, 12 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 38 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,418 k, 632 k (7.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,786 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 380 k more than 2017
- Extent is 126 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 195 k (1.5%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 89.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 48 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.44 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.56 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.0 to -1.4 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi and the Atlantic Front cold to very cold.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 22 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,265,459 km2

Total Area           12,265,459    km2        228,991    km2   >   2010's average. -44,155    km2   <   2019 -295,868    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     65    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     19    k   gain  Central Seas__     18    k   gain  Other Seas___     28    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     16    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     9    k   gain  Greenland____     0    k   gain  Barents ______    -5    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    3    k   gain CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss           Kara_________   -4    k   loss Laptev_______    3    k   gain Chukchi______    14    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    21    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain

Daily gain 65 k, 33 k MORE than the 2010's average of 32 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 229 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 44 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 893 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.0 to -1.4 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi and the Atlantic Front cold to very cold.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 23^rd, 2020:
     13,472,422 km², an increase of 89,929 km².
     2020 is 13^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

[Stephan]

If 2020 marches further upwards, it will soon fall off of the "top 15" list. 2009, 2007 and 2004 are not out of reach, when increases well above average continue...

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,472,422 km2（January 23, 2020）

After being 2nd lowest in September and after a very slow start to the freezing season, the recovery in sea ice extent and area is impressive, perhaps unmatched except for the 2012-13 freezing season.

Caveat -still could see a moderation in extent gain in the last 7 weeks or so of this freezing season

- Extent gain on this day 90 k, 50 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 40 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,508 k, 683 k (7.7%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,825 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 391 k more than 2017
- Extent is 180 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 245 k (1.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 89.7% of extent gain for the the season done, 47 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.49 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.61 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.4 to -1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Aaska & much of the Canadian far north and the Atlantic Front cold to very cold.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________

[PragmaticAntithesis]

Wow, these extent gains are seriously impressive! I wonder if they'll translate to a less worrying spring and summer this year.

[Quantum]

Wow, these extent gains are seriously impressive! I wonder if they'll translate to a less worrying spring and summer this year.

Feels like 2012/2013 all over again. Increased bering sea ice can't be a bad thing though, will help protect the chukchi. On the other hand the continents will also heat up faster if there is reduced snowcover/lake ice.
 

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 23 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,334,287 km2

Total Area           12,334,287    km2        266,956    km2   >   2010's average. -9,437    km2   <   2019 -247,564    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     69    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     17    k   gain  Central Seas__     22    k   gain  Other Seas___     30    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     14    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     10    k   gain  Greenland____    -2    k   loss  Barents ______    -5    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    5    k   gain CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__    0    k   gain Central Arctic_    0    k   gain           Kara_________   -0    k   loss Laptev_______    3    k   gain Chukchi______    13    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    19    k   gain St Lawrence___    4    k   gain Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain

Daily gain 69 k, 38 k MORE than the 2010's average of 31 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 267 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 9 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 842 km2
- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.4 to -1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up the Norwegian Sea and cold Northerlies out of the CAB down the Greenland East Coast

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 24^th, 2020:
     13,491,629 km², an increase of 19,207 km².
     2020 is 13^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.