2020 Sea ice area and extent data

[Fractious]

on track for 4.61

[Frivolousz21]

The sea ice area going up is because of massive fog everywhere.

And some light snow on the Atlantic side of the CAB and towards the Kara

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 4^th, 2020:
     10,672,471 km², a drop of -59,427 km².
     2020 is 4^th lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. From June 4^th to June 13^th,  the ASI on 2012 dropped 1,130K km², an average of -126K km² on 9 days.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,672,471 KM2 as at 04-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 59k, -27 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 32k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,775 k, 449 k, 13.5% more than the 10 year average of 3,327 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  147 k MORE than 2019,
- Extent is  318 k MORE than 2016,
______________________________-
On average 33.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 102 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.05 million km2, 0.87 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
An above average daily sea ice extent loss for a change.
If temperatures are any guide, maybe the first day of a wave of high daily sea ice losses.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 04-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,719,558 KM2         

Total Area           9,719,558    km2       -57,611    km2   <   2010's average.  241,753    km2   >   2019 -549,880    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    9    k   gain Peripheral Seas   -9    k   loss Central Seas___    17    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss Bering _______   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -5    k   loss St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss Greenland____    4    k   gain Barents ______   -5    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -8    k   loss Beaufort_____    5    k   gain CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    16    k   gain Central Arctic_    14    k   gain Laptev_______    2    k   gain Kara_________   -12    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss gain on this day 9 k, 79 k more than the 2010's average loss of 70 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 58 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 550 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 583 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 242 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
And yes, another record-breaking day of sea ice area gain instead of a loss, but a lower gain.
The tide may be turning.

 

[gerontocrat]

And then there were 7 6 peripheral seas with ice remaining. (June NSIDC mask adjustment does it every year).

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Central Arctic Sea  - Area & Extent graphs.

After a very high sea ice AREA maximum, rapid area loss,  most of which has been reversed.

Extent remained at maximum during much of that area loss (15% rule), and is back to within 10k of maximum.

Also note that although 2019 was 2nd lowest in total Arctic sea ice extent at minimum, the extent losses in the central arctic sea at minimum were much below average, and area only at the 2010's average.... unlike the outcome in 2012 & 2016.

[weatherdude88]

And yes, another record-breaking day of sea ice area gain instead of a loss, but a lower gain.
The tide may be turning.

Indeed,

For 6.4.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 9.651397 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 70,824 square kilometers from the previous day.

The change from the previous daily value, over the past five days are as follows:

+86,619 (5.31)
+53,058 (6.1)
+4,992 (6.2)
-53,089 (6.3)
-70,824 (6.4)

The Central Arctic is nearly full with high concentration ice. The NSIDC 5-day trailing mean should show near average sea ice area losses within 3 days.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 5^th, 2020:
     10,629,897 km², a drop of -42,574 km².
     2020 is now 5^th lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. From June 4^th to June 13^th,  the ASI on 2012 dropped 1,130K km², an average of -126K km² on 9 days.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,629,897 KM2 as at 05-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 43k, 17 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 60k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,818 k, 431 k, 12.7% more than the 10 year average of 3,387 k.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- Extent is  149 k MORE than 2019,
- Extent is  277 k MORE than 2016,
______________________________-
On average 34.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 101 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.07 million km2, 0.89 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
And back to below average extent loss

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 05-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,699,452 KM2         

Total Area           9,699,452    km2       -2,462    km2   <   2010's average.  276,531    km2   >   2019 -505,670    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change   -20    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -19    k   loss Central Seas___   -1    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss Greenland____    4    k   gain Barents ______   -6    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -11    k   loss Beaufort_____    6    k   gain CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__    9    k   gain Central Arctic_    6    k   gain Laptev_______   -8    k   loss Kara_________   -5    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 20 k, 55 k less than the 2010's average loss of 75 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #5 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 2 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 506 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 632 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 277 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
The tide has turned - but a 20k loss is still the lowest sea ice area loss at least since 2002.

[Phoenix]

      
The tide has turned - but a 20k loss is still the lowest sea ice area loss at least since 2002.

The new average suggests a daily loss of ~ 35k. Momentum will take a bigger kick to really get going. We approach the impressive 35 day century streak of 2019 which began June 11. The "Great Mid-May Melting Event" may turn out to be 2020's brief claim to fame.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 6^th, 2020:
     10,566,711 km², a drop of -63,186 km².
     2020 is now 4^th lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. From June 4^th to June 13^th,  the ASI on 2012 dropped 1,130K km², an average of -126K km² on 9 days.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,566,711 KM2 as at 06-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 63k, 1 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 62k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,881 k, 433 k, 12.5% more than the 10 year average of 3,448 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  130 k MORE than 2019,
- Extent is  234 k MORE than 2016,
______________________________-
On average 34.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 100 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.06 million km2, 0.89 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
And an amazing 1k above average extent loss

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 06-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,659,307 KM2         

Total Area           9,659,307    km2        32,001    km2   >   2010's average.  290,594    km2   >   2019 -475,743    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change   -40    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -19    k   loss Central Seas___   -21    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______   -2    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Greenland____    2    k   gain Barents ______   -4    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -9    k   loss Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic_    6    k   gain Laptev_______   -13    k   loss Kara_________   -5    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 40 k, 35 k less than the 2010's average loss of 75 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #5 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 32 k more than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 476 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 672 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 291 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Area loss still way below average

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 7^th, 2020:
     10,487,367 km², a drop of -79,344 km².
     2020 is 4^th lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. From June 4^th to June 13^th,  the ASI on 2012 dropped 1,130K km², an average of -126K km² on 9 days.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,487,367 KM2 as at 07-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 79k, 25 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,960 k, 458 k, 13.1% more than the 10 year average of 3,502 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  101 k MORE than 2019,
- Extent is  190 k MORE than 2016,
______________________________-
On average 35.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 99 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.04 million km2, 0.86 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
And will we see a run above average extent losses?

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 07-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,612,694 KM2         

Total Area           9,612,694    km2        56,086    km2   >   2010's average.  280,191    km2   >   2019 -455,738    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change   -47    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -19    k   loss Central Seas___   -28    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Greenland____    1    k   gain Barents ______   -2    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -4    k   loss Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__   -8    k   loss Central Arctic_    5    k   gain Laptev_______   -11    k   loss Kara_________   -7    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 47 k, 24 k less than the 2010's average loss of 71 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 56 k more than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 456 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 687 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 280 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Daily Sea Ice Area loss up a bit but still well below average, as is daily extent loss.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 8^th, 2020:
     10,388,040 km², an almost century drop of -99,327 km².
     2020 is now 3^rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. From June 4^th to June 13^th,  the ASI on 2012 dropped 1,130K km², an average of -126K km² on 9 days.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,388,040 KM2 as at 08-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 99k, 46 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,060 k, 504 k, 14.2% more than the 10 year average of 3,555 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  27 k MORE than 2019,
- Extent is  109 k MORE than 2016,
______________________________-
On average 35.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 98 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.99 million km2, 0.82 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Yesterday I asked - "And will we see a run above average extent losses?"
My answer to me is probably yes. It is just too warm over too much of the Arctic  (land & sea) to think otherwise. Even the Canadian cold blob shrinks and fades away - with mildly +ve temperature anomalies developing in the CAA

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 08-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,550,692 KM2         

Total Area           9,550,692    km2        69,805    km2   >   2010's average.  247,376    km2   >   2019 -455,511    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change   -62    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -24    k   loss Central Seas___   -38    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Greenland____    1    k   gain Barents ______   -5    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -3    k   loss Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__   -7    k   loss Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss Laptev_______   -11    k   loss Kara_________   -7    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 62 k, 14 k less than the 2010's average loss of 76 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 70 k more than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 456 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 696 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 247 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Area is back to where it was a week ago. Area (and extent) loss up again but still a bit below average.
I, for one, expect daily losses to continue to increase for some days to come.

[be cause]

.. you are not alone .. b.c.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 9^th, 2020:
     10,316,109 km², a drop of -71,931 km².
     2020 is now 2^nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. From June 4^th to June 13^th,  the ASI on 2012 dropped 1,130K km², an average of -126K km² on 9 days.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,316,109 KM2 as at 09-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 72k, 16 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 56k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,132 k, 520 k, 14.4% more than the 10 year average of 3,611 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -2 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  79 k LESS than 2016,
______________________________-
On average 36.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 97 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.98 million km2, 0.80 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
And will we see a run of above average extent losses continuing? 
GFS says temperatures just getting a bit warmer day by day over all the Arctic

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 09-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,456,650 KM2         

Total Area           9,456,650    km2        57,407    km2   >   2010's average.  190,224    km2   >   2019 -490,976    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change   -94    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -28    k   loss Central Seas___   -66    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss Bering _______   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -11    k   loss St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Greenland____   -6    k   loss Barents ______   -5    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -0    k   loss Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss CAA_________   -4    k   loss East Siberian__   -16    k   loss Central Arctic_   -14    k   loss Laptev_______   -8    k   loss Kara_________   -12    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 94 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average loss of 82 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 57 k more than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 491 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 689 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 190 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Note that this large increase in daily sea ice area loss only brings it to 12k above the 2010's average. Daily sea ice area loss from mid-June to mid-July is on most days above 100k - i.e. we are entering the peak period of  area losses.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 10^th, 2020:
     10,259,982 km², a drop of -56,127 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. From June 4^th to June 13^th,  the ASI on 2012 dropped 1,130K km², an average of -126K km² on 9 days.

[nowayout]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

...

P.S. From June 4^th to June 13^th,  the ASI on 2012 dropped 1,130K km², an average of -126K km² on 9 days.

Progress in times of climate change: nothing to do here, ice is already gone this year. As it was last year.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,259,982 KM2 as at 10-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 56k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 59k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,188 k, 518 k, 14.1% more than the 10 year average of 3,670 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -18 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  70 k MORE than 2016,
______________________________-
On average 36.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 96 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.98 million km2, 0.80 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
And will we see a run above average extent losses continuing? 
Not on this day. But both 2016 & 2019 saw a bit of a lull in extent loss at this time, so 2020 could easiy be #1 in a few days while 2012 finishes its run to become a contender.

And yes, GFS says temperatures just getting gradually warmer day by day over nearly all the Arctic

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 10-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,375,762 KM2         

Total Area           9,375,762    km2        56,588    km2   >   2010's average.  184,865    km2   >   2019 -509,136    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change   -81    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -22    k   loss Central Seas___   -59    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______   -2    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Greenland____   -5    k   loss Barents ______   -5    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -1    k   loss Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss CAA_________   -7    k   loss East Siberian__   -16    k   loss Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss Laptev_______   -4    k   loss Kara_________   -17    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 81 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 80 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 57 k more than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 509 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 666 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 185 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Area loss on this day a mere 1k above average for the day.

[Frivolousz21]

SIA is probably going to have a huge cliff like 2012.

Probably displaced by a week maybe less.

[weatherdude88]

For 6.10.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 9.187098 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 5,231 square kilometers from the previous day.

The change from the previous daily value, over the past five days are as follows:

-21,230 (June 6th)
-26,022 (June 7th)
-131,266 (June 8th)
-231,367 (June 9th)
+5,231 (June 10th)

The NSIDC 5-day trailing mean volatility may continue.

[Alison]

Extent is  70 k LESS than 2016

More?

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 11^th, 2020:
     10,228,472 km², a drop of -31,510 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. From June 4^th to June 13^th,  the ASI on 2012 dropped 1,130K km², an average of -126K km² on 9 days.
P.S.(2): The 9 lowest years today: 2015-2020 & 2010-2012.

[gerontocrat]

Thanks Alison - dumb mistake fixed.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,228,472 KM2 as at 11-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 32k, 22 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,219 k, 495 k, 13.3% more than the 10 year average of 3,724 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -5 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  74 k MORE than 2016,
______________________________-
On average 37.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 95 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.00 million km2, 0.82 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Such a low extent loss was a real surprise

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 11-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,278,982 KM2         

Total Area           9,278,982    km2        44,666    km2   >   2010's average.  195,553    km2   >   2019 -546,456    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change   -97    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -32    k   loss Central Seas___   -65    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    1    k   gain Bering _______   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Greenland____   -9    k   loss Barents ______   -7    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -3    k   loss Beaufort_____   -14    k   loss CAA_________   -10    k   loss East Siberian__   -11    k   loss Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss Laptev_______   -4    k   loss Kara_________   -15    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 97 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average loss of 85 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #7 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 45 k more than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 546 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 630 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 196 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         

[Alison]

Thanks again for all you do Ger - I read few things as closely as your contributions!

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 12^th, 2020:
     10,193,501 km², a drop of -34,971 km².
     2020 is now 3^rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,193,501 KM2 as at 12-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 35k, 27 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 62k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,254 k, 468 k, 12.4% more than the 10 year average of 3,786 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  1 k MORE than 2019,
- Extent is  63 k MORE than 2016,
______________________________-
On average 38.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 94 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.03 million km2, 0.85 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
& yet another lack-lustre extent loss

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 12-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,160,467 KM2         

Total Area           9,160,467    km2        20,401    km2   >   2010's average.  206,940    km2   >   2019 -600,021    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change   -118    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -39    k   loss Central Seas___   -79    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    1    k   gain Bering _______   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -17    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Greenland____   -11    k   loss Barents ______   -7    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -4    k   loss Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss CAA_________   -15    k   loss East Siberian__   -9    k   loss Central Arctic_   -13    k   loss Laptev_______   -17    k   loss Kara_________   -12    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 118 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average loss of 94 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 20 k more than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 600 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 563 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 207 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Once again far more area loss in the Central seas, though perhaps Hudson Bay sea ice is at last on the steep slope to oblivion

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 13^th, 2020:
     10,143,000 km², a drop of -50,501 km².
     2020 is now 2^nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,143,000 KM2 as at 13-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 51k, 5 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 56k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,305 k, 463 k, 12.0% more than the 10 year average of 3,842 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -64 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  42 k MORE than 2016,
______________________________-
On average 38.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 93 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.03 million km2, 0.86 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Another mediocre JAXA extent loss on this day.

Extent rises by one notch to #2 in the satellite record, but only because on this day extent in 2019 increased by 15k (and 6k on the 14th).

On graph-Arc2 - Daily Changes I have added 2016 and 2019. You can see now the record-breaking run in 2012 is over, from now, at least for the next month, daily changes in those 3 years (with ups and downs) are pretty similar.

The plume graph shows the effect on increasing the minimum minimum from 2012 daily changes is now just above 3 million km2, simply because by this date much of 2012's record extent losses are past.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 13-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,042,486 KM2         

Total Area           9,042,486    km2       -3,205    km2   <   2010's average.  240,288    km2   >   2019 -647,496    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change   -118    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -35    k   loss Central Seas___   -83    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -18    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss Greenland____   -8    k   loss Barents ______   -3    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -6    k   loss Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss CAA_________   -18    k   loss East Siberian__   -20    k   loss Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss Laptev_______   -16    k   loss Kara_________   -10    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 118 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average loss of 94 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 3 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 647 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 474 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 240 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Still a marked contrast between very large area losses in the Central Seas(The High Arctic) and below average losses in the Peripheral seas.

Also a contrast between these very high area losses and below average extent losses. I am thinking melt ponds  and/or disintegration of large areas of ice not subject to wind driven compaction - temperatures rule, OK?

[Stephan]

I took the monthly extent value for May 2020 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the extent anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average (1979-2020) May extent is now 13.13 M km². May 2020 had an average extent of 12.36 M km², which is 0.77 M km² less than that long-term average.
The more or less parallel to normal development in May 2020 kept the actual value above the red long-term linear trend line by 0.35 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this May should have been at 12.01 M km²).
The slope of the long-term linear trend line has thus further decreased by one digit (-0.0549 instead of -0.0550).

See attached graph.

[VeliAlbertKallio]

The stable rate (1997-2007), has remained variable since 2007 unprecedented event (2007-2020). Likewise, the higher variability in sea ice extent also preceded that period (1979-1997). For the future prediction the reasons for these changing variabilities in Arctic sea ice compactness need better understood. I could conceive that thinner sea ice and open waters help now variability, but what then caused the higher sea ice variability (1979-1997)? Was it the weakening of the peripheral seas ice that is then followed by the weakening of the Central Arctic? These questions must be urgently answered if we want to understand when the ocean becomes ice free, and whether it is then regular or irregular.

Ref: see the attached graph on previous post below.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 14^th, 2020:
     10,093,549 km², a drop of -49,451 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,093,549 KM2 as at 14-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 49k, 9 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,354 k, 455 k, 11.7% more than the 10 year average of 3,900 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -120 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  39 k MORE than 2016,
______________________________-
On average 39.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 92 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.04 million km2, 0.86 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Yet another below average extent loss.

[The Walrus]

The stable rate (1997-2007), has remained variable since 2007 unprecedented event (2007-2020). Likewise, the higher variability in sea ice extent also preceded that period (1979-1997). For the future prediction the reasons for these changing variabilities in Arctic sea ice compactness need better understood. I could conceive that thinner sea ice and open waters help now variability, but what then caused the higher sea ice variability (1979-1997)? Was it the weakening of the peripheral seas ice that is then followed by the weakening of the Central Arctic? These questions must be urgently answered if we want to understand when the ocean becomes ice free, and whether it is then regular or irregular.

Ref: see the attached graph on previous post below.

You make some very good points.  It would be better to compare recent years to similar years, rather than those of higher ice.

[gerontocrat]

The stable rate (1997-2007), has remained variable since 2007 unprecedented event (2007-2020). Likewise, the higher variability in sea ice extent also preceded that period (1979-1997). For the future prediction the reasons for these changing variabilities in Arctic sea ice compactness need better understood. I could conceive that thinner sea ice and open waters help now variability, but what then caused the higher sea ice variability (1979-1997)? Was it the weakening of the peripheral seas ice that is then followed by the weakening of the Central Arctic? These questions must be urgently answered if we want to understand when the ocean becomes ice free, and whether it is then regular or irregular.

Ref: see the attached graph on previous post below.

You make some very good points.  It would be better to compare recent years to similar years, rather than those of higher ice.

All you've got to do now is dig out the data.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 14-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 8,936,001 KM2         

Total Area           8,936,001    km2       -4,269    km2   <   2010's average.  287,519    km2   >   2019 -666,413    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change   -106    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -41    k   loss Central Seas___   -66    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -25    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Greenland____   -2    k   loss Barents ______   -3    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -10    k   loss Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss CAA_________   -11    k   loss East Siberian__   -18    k   loss Central Arctic_    4    k   gain Laptev_______   -17    k   loss Kara_________   -7    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 106 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 105 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 4 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 666 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 388 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 288 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
The contrast between High Arctic & Peripheral Arctic sea ice area losses continues, as does the contrast between daily area losses and daily extent losses..

[Downpuppy]

Comparing area loss:
Peripheral total area 1,739,818 - loss 40,886, 2.35%
Central seas total area 7,196,183 - 65,559, 0.91%

Cut out the pure Central Arctic (Gain 0.1%) and they're pretty similar, with the Other Central about 1.8%