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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #850 on: June 25, 2020, 03:19:38 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,436,977 KM2 as at 24-Jun-2020

EDIT


Something must have gone badly wrong at NSIDC. The data for the 24th June has been significantly changed in the data files for the update produced on the 26th.

e.g.
total area loss according to NSIDC data for the 24th June produced on the 25th = 34k,

total area loss according to NSIDC data for the 24th June produced on the 26th = 60k,

So the data and tables produced by the sweat of my brow that were attached  are completely useless, of value Sweet FA.

Hence this edit is deleting the data from this post, from whence it will be consigned to the Vale of Tears to join most of Humanity's achievements.
_____________________________________
« Last Edit: June 26, 2020, 03:20:41 PM by gerontocrat »
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #851 on: June 26, 2020, 05:47:11 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 25th, 2020:
     9,348,063 km2, a drop of -88,914 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #852 on: June 26, 2020, 08:26:55 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,348,063 KM2 as at 25-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 89k, 16 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 73k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,100 k, 460 k, 9.9% more than the 10 year average of 4,640 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -156 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  97 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  146 k LESS than 2012
______________________________-
On average 46.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 81 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.04 million km2, 0.86 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #853 on: June 26, 2020, 03:24:21 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,613,043 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 7,613,043    km2      
-231,871    km2   <   2010's average.
 25,998    km2   >   2019
-868,707    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -61    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -52    k   loss
Central Seas___   -9    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -26    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -11    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
Beaufort_____    16    k   gain
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__    12    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -17    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Kara_________   -15    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 61 k, 38 k less than the 2010's average loss of 99 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 232 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 869 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 95 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 26 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 231 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #854 on: June 26, 2020, 07:00:46 PM »
4 NSIDC Area Graphs

The CAA did hit the dogleg, but at an area between 75 & 100k less than "normal". When will area loss resume - still very warm to hot in the region.

Russian Shore ...
The Kara Sea continues to shed sea ice area at a high rate. The Eastern end where ice remains is still warm while the Western end, where ice is gone, looks cool.

The Laptev Sea ice area flirts with #1 & #2 position, currently #1. It looks really hot there.

The ESS sea ice area has stalled & gone into reverse. One more day's increase and 1990 becomes the year at #1.
It looks COLD in far Eastern Siberia.

« Last Edit: June 26, 2020, 07:32:08 PM by gerontocrat »
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #855 on: June 27, 2020, 06:00:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 26th, 2020:
     9,291,764 km2, a drop of -56,299 km2.
     2020 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #856 on: June 27, 2020, 09:56:05 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,291,764 KM2 as at 26-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 56k, 24 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 80k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,156 k, 436 k, 9.2% more than the 10 year average of 4,720 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  150 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  89 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  97 k LESS than 2012
______________________________-
On average 47.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 80 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.06 million km2, 0.88 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #857 on: June 27, 2020, 03:16:55 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 26-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,503,961 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 7,503,961    km2      
-240,057    km2   <   2010's average.
 35,983    km2   >   2019
-877,663    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -109    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -45    k   loss
Central Seas___   -64    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -27    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -26    k   loss
Laptev_______   -16    k   loss
Kara_________   -22    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 109 k, 8 k more than the 2010's average loss of 101 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #5 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 240 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 878 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 74 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 36 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 238 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Area loss only just over the average area loss- these few days to mid-July are the peak of sea ice area losses at around 100k per day
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #858 on: June 27, 2020, 06:32:22 PM »
Thanks for keeping us so up to date, day by day.
I am still looking for seas that lose 10% of their ice area over several consecutive days - so far without "success".
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #859 on: June 28, 2020, 06:06:47 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 27th, 2020:
The data is half and hour late.
I will look for it in an hour.

P.S. Still waiting.
In my opinion and without the data, Bremen seems to show an important drop, specially on Hudson Bay.

P.S. [2]  ADS is now two hours late. It is time for me to go to bed.
If someone else post the update...
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Good morning, afternoon or night, where ever you are.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2020, 07:41:59 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #860 on: June 28, 2020, 08:22:38 AM »
The latest JAXA data is still from June 26, 2020.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

pauldry600

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #861 on: June 28, 2020, 11:24:55 AM »
Still no data

I'd say about 60k drop

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #862 on: June 28, 2020, 03:45:13 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 27-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,379,692 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 7,379,692    km2      
-255,137    km2   <   2010's average.
 52,691    km2   >   2019
-906,998    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -124    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -38    k   loss
Central Seas___   -86    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -23    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -11    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -12    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -29    k   loss
Laptev_______   -25    k   loss
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 124 k, 15 k more than the 2010's average loss of 109 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #5 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 255 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 907 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 22 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 53 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 213 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
The really below average area losses in the peripheral seas remain - despite the warmth & oftimes real heat  in and around Hudson Bay & The Greenland Sea. Aluminium's gifs seem to show most times sea ice is still being pushed into the Greenland sea from the CAB, offsetting warmth from the south melting the ice .

Even if a bit late, Hudson Bay will completely melt out. The Greenland Sea final result will depend on the strength of ice import.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #863 on: June 28, 2020, 04:37:35 PM »
A look at the Arctic Peripheral Seas analysed in my JAXA extent format

A significant change from being #1 early in the melt season to this day at #9.

NSIDC PERIPHERAL ARCTIC SEAS - ICE AREA:  1,196,081 KM2 as at 27-Jun-2020

- Area loss on this day 38k, 6 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 44k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,555 k, 211 k, 6.2% more than the 10 year average of 3,344 k.
- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record
- Extent is  96 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  151 k MORE than 2016
______________________________-
On average 76.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 73 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 0.19 million km2, 0.11 million km2 above the 2018 minimum of 0.08 million km2.
________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #864 on: June 29, 2020, 06:24:08 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 27th, 2020:
     9,244,082 km2, a drop of -47,682 km2.

June 28th, 2020:
     9,180,076 km2, a drop of -64,006 km2.
     2020 is now 4th lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 07:02:01 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #865 on: June 29, 2020, 10:52:50 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,180,076 KM2 as at 28-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 64k, 40 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 104k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,268 k, 353 k, 7.2% more than the 10 year average of 4,914 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  10 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  96 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  103 k LESS than 2012
______________________________-
On average 49.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 78 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.14 million km2, 0.97 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Slow extent losses - even though large parts of the Arctic remain extremely warm. Maybe this is due of lack of winds encouraging compaction, while thinning and reduction of concentration of the ice continues?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #866 on: June 29, 2020, 04:52:22 PM »
EDIT !!

NSIDC Total Area as at 28-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,276,501 KM2         
         

NSIDC did it again. Posted a revised set of spreadsheets later in the day with significantly different data. Nothing to do but delete all the data as it is WRONG.

Bummer.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2020, 07:36:36 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #867 on: June 30, 2020, 06:29:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 29th, 2020:
     9,050,230 km2, a century drop of -129,846 km2.
     2020 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. The lowest is 2010, but soon it is going to lose this place.
      2020 is very close to 2nd. lowest.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2020, 06:24:04 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #868 on: June 30, 2020, 09:54:58 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,050,230 KM2 as at 29-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 130k, 38 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 92k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,397 k, 391 k, 7.8% more than the 10 year average of 5,006 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  45 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  17 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  114 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  549 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 50.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 77 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.11 million km2, 0.93 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #869 on: June 30, 2020, 07:32:42 PM »
NSIDC Data errors Twice in the last week NSIDC have made major revisions to the data on their spreadsheets later in the same day the data was made available. (It was data for the 23rd and 28th June).

Because of this, and because my lousy internet connection is usually at its worst during the early afternoon, from now I will not be posting NSIDC data until at least 6 p.m. GMT. Hopefully any revised spreadsheets will have been uploaded by then.

NSIDC Total Area as at 29-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,197,150 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 7,197,150    km2      
-218,453    km2   <   2010's average.
 124,140    km2   >   2019
-894,981    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -92    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -33    k   loss
Central Seas___   -58    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -28    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -11    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -16    k   loss
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__   -7    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -18    k   loss
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 92 k, 15 k less than the 2010's average loss of 107 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #5 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 218 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 895 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 5 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 124 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 261 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
« Last Edit: June 30, 2020, 07:38:28 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #870 on: June 30, 2020, 07:52:08 PM »
Evaluation of sea ice area "relative area wise" June 16-June 29.
There are two laggards:
CAB        - 4%
Beaufort  - 7%
Three seas with a slow decrease:
ESS         - 14%
Chukchi   - 18%
Grønland - 20%
Among the faster seas are:
Barents   - 26%
CAA         - 29%
The leaders are:
Laptev     - 32%
Baffin       - 35%
Kara        - 38%
Hudson    - 39%
Okhotsk, Bering and St. Lawrence were not evaluated (they almost melted completely)
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #871 on: July 01, 2020, 06:20:27 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 30th, 2020:
     8,918,818 km2, a century drop of -131,412 km2.
     2020 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #872 on: July 01, 2020, 07:00:01 AM »
??Is this now a start of consecutive days with century losses of JAXA sea ice extent??
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #873 on: July 01, 2020, 08:27:04 AM »
??Is this now a start of consecutive days with century losses of JAXA sea ice extent??
If the weather forecast charts posted in the melting season thread are anything  like correct, the answer must be surely be a big YES.   (but... so many times, sigh.)

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,918,818 KM2 as at 30-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 131k, 51 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 80k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,529 k, 442 k, 8.7% more than the 10 year average of 5,087 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  118 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  55 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  121 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  551 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 51.1% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 76 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.05 million km2, 0.88 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
A good chance that Jaxa extent data will be writing a line on an unused part of the Graph paper this first week of July..
_______________________________________
I also attach the June monthly average extent graph. The average turned out at 9.96 million km2, just 52k (almost exactly one year) below the linear trend value of 10.01 million km2. This is 2nd lowest i the satellite record - 2016's early melt in May to early June made it the record breaker.
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jdallen

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #874 on: July 01, 2020, 09:36:51 AM »
??Is this now a start of consecutive days with century losses of JAXA sea ice extent??
I don't pay a lot of attention until we've got at least 5 in a row, to start.  I'm still primarily focused on weather and the trend.
This space for Rent.

Ktb

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #875 on: July 01, 2020, 10:13:43 AM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation.

As of June 30th, extent is 8,918,818 km2. With on average 75 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -105,584 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

Total extent loss so far this season is -5,528,823 km2. This has resulted in the current season average daily drop of -46,461 km2. Since the year 2007, this is the 6th fastest average daily loss from maximum to June 30th (2007-2020). (See Attachment 2).

Total extent loss from maximum is 3rd highest on record since 2007 --- 2010 and 2012 had monster Junes. (See Attachment 3).

Looking only at the month of June, 2020 lost -1,915,658 km2, averaging -63,855 km2 per day. This is the 8th largest loss since 2007. (See Attachment 4).
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Ktb

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #876 on: July 01, 2020, 10:21:20 AM »
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from June 1st to their respective minimums. (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From July 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement of -105,584 km2 is the 8th lowest value, of which 2010 is the leader. (See attachment 2).


As an aside, for those holding out hope for a BOE to occur, we must melt ~143% of 2012 every day until the minimum.
For the few votes in the 2-2.5 million km2 JAXA daily poll we must average between -92,251 and -85,584 km2 or ~125% to 116% more daily melt than 2012.
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #877 on: July 01, 2020, 06:12:57 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,103,305 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 7,103,305    km2      
-216,158    km2   <   2010's average.
 151,271    km2   >   2019
-884,859    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -94    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -24    k   loss
Central Seas___   -70    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -18    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -14    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -15    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -23    k   loss
CAA_________    7    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______   -17    k   loss
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 94 k, 2 k less than the 2010's average loss of 96 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 216 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 885 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 19 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 151 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 273 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note the area increases in the Barents & especially the Greenland Sea. There is a certainty that sea ice is melting in the Greenland Sea especially - Fram export encouraged & increased by winds from the Russian shores into the Atlantic has ramped up.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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MrGreeny

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #878 on: July 02, 2020, 05:43:47 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 1st, 2020:
       8,816,921km2 a century drop of -101,897km2
       2020 is now 1st lowest on record.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
     
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #879 on: July 02, 2020, 05:52:26 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 1st, 2020:
     8,816,921 km2, a century drop of -101,897 km2.
     2020 is now the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #880 on: July 02, 2020, 06:19:53 AM »
Is this the first time 2020 has been lowest?
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #881 on: July 02, 2020, 06:33:26 AM »
Is this the first time 2020 has been lowest?
Also, for only 1 day, on March 28th.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #882 on: July 02, 2020, 11:17:47 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,816,921 KM2 as at 01-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 102k, 4 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 98k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,631 k, 446 k, 8.6% more than the 10 year average of 5,185 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  97 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  73 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  124 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  505 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 52.1% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 75 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.05 million km2, 0.87 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
2020 JAXA Extent data should be writing a line on the unused part of the graph paper for a few days at least. But in my lexicon sea ice is only truly #1 when NSIDC extent and area data also say the same.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #883 on: July 02, 2020, 03:59:34 PM »
NSIDC daily extent numbers are interesting.

2020-06-27  9.854
2020-06-28  9.723  -131
2020-06-29  9.575  -148
2020-06-30  9.445  -130
2020-07-01  9.262  -183

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #884 on: July 02, 2020, 05:07:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 01-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,974,893 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 6,974,893    km2      
-235,264    km2   <   2010's average.
 137,114    km2   >   2019
-884,729    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -128    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -35    k   loss
Central Seas___   -93    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -20    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -11    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -19    k   loss
CAA_________    6    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -33    k   loss
Laptev_______   -24    k   loss
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 128 k, 19 k more than the 2010's average loss of 109 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 235 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 885 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 48 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 137 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 258 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #885 on: July 03, 2020, 05:47:46 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 2nd, 2020:
     8,752,970 km2, a drop of -63,951 km2.
     2020 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #886 on: July 03, 2020, 12:18:31 PM »
On July 1  Stephan asked
Quote
"Is this now a start of consecutive days with century losses of JAXA sea ice extent??"
I answered...
Quote
If the weather forecast charts posted in the melting season thread are anything  like correct, the answer must be surely be a big YES.   (but... so many times, sigh.)

And once again, here am I, stranded on the Bridge of Sighs....

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,752,970 KM2 as at 02-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 64k, 35 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 99k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,695 k, 411 k, 7.8% more than the 10 year average of 5,283 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  30 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  46 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  82 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  472 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 53.1% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 74 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.09 million km2, 0.91 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #887 on: July 03, 2020, 03:11:12 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 02-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,837,185 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 6,837,185    km2      
-268,830    km2   <   2010's average.
 108,490    km2   >   2019
-891,785    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -138    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -39    k   loss
Central Seas___   -99    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -18    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -14    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    11    k   gain
East Siberian__   -7    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -53    k   loss
Laptev_______   -19    k   loss
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 138 k, 34 k more than the 2010's average loss of 104 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 269 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 892 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 78 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 108 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 245 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Some more large area losses guaranteed for the next 2-3 days at least, courtesy of the 5-day trailing average.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #888 on: July 03, 2020, 03:31:40 PM »
NSIDC Sea Ice Area - random observations.

The contrast between the sea ice area in the High Arctic (2nd lowest) and the Peripheral Seas (13th lowest) is, if anything, increasing. It may all end up largely depending on the balance between ice export from the Central Arctic into the Greenland Sea.

The Laptev Sea melt continues apace.

The Central Arctic Sea is suddenly losing a lot of sea ice area - i.e. melt is nibbling away at North of 80.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #889 on: July 03, 2020, 05:27:10 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

2020-06-27  9.854
2020-06-28  9.723  -131
2020-06-29  9.575  -148
2020-06-30  9.445  -130
2020-07-01  9.262  -183
2020-07-02  9.142  -120

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #890 on: July 04, 2020, 06:00:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 3rd, 2020:
     8,633,133 km2, a century drop of -119,837 km2.
     2020 is now the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #891 on: July 04, 2020, 10:42:34 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,633,133 KM2 as at 03-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 120k, 38 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 82k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,815 k, 449 k, 8.4% more than the 10 year average of 5,365 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  44 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  74 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  113 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  431 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 53.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 73 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.05 million km2, 0.87 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
After a 35k below average extent loss on the 2nd July we get a 38k above average extent loss on the 3rd July, i.e. average for the 2 days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #892 on: July 04, 2020, 11:44:30 AM »
If extent is at the lowest in the record, that means it is likely this date’s lowest in over a hundred millennia.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #893 on: July 04, 2020, 11:58:48 AM »
At this point, 2020 is putting the leap year advantage to good use. 2019 would be ahead in extent using info which is based on a comparable # of days melt.

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #894 on: July 04, 2020, 03:00:48 PM »
Tom, the issue if what happened in past millennia is OT for this thread, and usually elicits responses, so should be avoided.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #895 on: July 04, 2020, 03:09:27 PM »
Tom, the issue if what happened in past millennia is OT for this thread, and usually elicits responses, so should be avoided.
past millennia   -  "But ah, I remember it well..."
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #896 on: July 04, 2020, 03:15:26 PM »
Meanwhile...

NSIDC Total Area as at 03-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,638,651 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 6,638,651    km2      
-356,408    km2   <   2010's average.
 36,470    km2   >   2019
-969,825    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -199    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -48    k   loss
Central Seas___   -150    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -23    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -14    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________    11    k   gain
East Siberian__   -18    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -85    k   loss
Laptev_______   -22    k   loss
Kara_________   -16    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 199 k, 88 k more than the 2010's average loss of 111 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 356 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 970 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 159 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 36 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 153 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Typical - the sea ice area and extent losses start to go through the roof on July 1,too late for comparison with the June PIOMAS data

Very high area & extent losses look to be guaranteed for at least 2-3 days more.
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Frosty

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #897 on: July 04, 2020, 03:32:02 PM »
All,

The NSIDC daily extent count just hit it's lowest ever for this day after a double century break of 200K. It's now 8.942km2 (2012 in column AK)

I don't post here because my lack of scientific knowledge, but I've been lurking for years. I'd like to give a quick thank you to Neven, Gerontocrat, Friv, Blumencraft, Oren and a whole bunch of others for keeping me updated.

[EDIT]: RETRACTION: I have forgotten to take into account leap years. Comparing day 185 with all day 185's, I find 2010 is lower with 8.938km2. I too now stand of the bridge of sighs...
« Last Edit: July 04, 2020, 04:09:25 PM by Frosty »

igs

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #898 on: July 04, 2020, 08:25:36 PM »
All,

The NSIDC daily extent count just hit it's lowest ever for this day after a double century break of 200K. It's now 8.942km2 (2012 in column AK)

I don't post here because my lack of scientific knowledge, but I've been lurking for years. I'd like to give a quick thank you to Neven, Gerontocrat, Friv, Blumencraft, Oren and a whole bunch of others for keeping me updated.

[EDIT]: RETRACTION: I have forgotten to take into account leap years. Comparing day 185 with all day 185's, I find 2010 is lower with 8.938km2. I too now stand of the bridge of sighs...


No worries, the value of the contribution doesn't suffer from this  8)  Means, THANKS

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #899 on: July 04, 2020, 09:52:13 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

This is getting ridiculous.

2020-06-27  9.854
2020-06-28  9.723  -131
2020-06-29  9.575  -148
2020-06-30  9.445  -130
2020-07-01  9.262  -183
2020-07-02  9.142  -120
2020-07-03  8.942  -200