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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #100 on: January 25, 2020, 12:20:05 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,491,629 km2(January 24, 2020)

And just for a change a below average extent gain on this day

- Extent gain on this day 19 k, 29 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 48 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,527 k, 654 k (7.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,873 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 30 k more than 2017
- Extent is 159 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 216 k (1.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 90.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 46 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.46 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.58 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.3 to -0.9 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up the Norwegian Sea and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia down the Greenland East Coast

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #101 on: January 25, 2020, 03:23:21 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,386,296 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,386,296    km2      
 292,545    km2   >   2010's average.
-5,144    km2   <   2019
-211,396    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     52    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     5    k   gain
 Central Seas__     19    k   gain
 Other Seas___     29    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     14    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     4    k   gain
 Greenland____    -7    k   loss
 Barents ______    -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    10    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    20    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain

Daily gain 52 k, 26 k MORE than the 2010's average of 26 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 293 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 5 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 78 km2
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.3 to -0.9 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up the Norwegian Sea and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia down the Greenland East Coast

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #102 on: January 26, 2020, 05:17:12 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 25th, 2020:
     13,527,040 km2, an increase of 35,411 km2.
     2020 is now 11th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #103 on: January 26, 2020, 09:34:08 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,527,040 km2(January 25, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 35 k, 4 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 39 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,563 k, 651 k (7.3%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,912 k.
- Extent is 11th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 311 k more than 2017
- Extent is 180 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 213 k (1.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 90.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 45 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.46 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.58 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.2 to -0.9 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, with signs the warmer southerlies in the ascendant.

Overall the outlook still seems equally favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #104 on: January 26, 2020, 10:22:03 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,424,178 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,424,178    km2      
 302,224    km2   >   2010's average.
-6,516    km2   <   2019
-185,671    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     38    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     3    k   gain
 Central Seas__     13    k   gain
 Other Seas___     22    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     10    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -3    k   loss
 Greenland____    -5    k   loss
 Barents ______     1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    10    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain

Daily gain 38 k, 10 k MORE than the 2010's average of 28 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 302 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 7 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 732 km2
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.2 to -0.9 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, with signs the warmer southerlies in the ascendant.

Overall the outlook still seems equally favourable for and against the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #105 on: January 27, 2020, 04:58:32 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 26th, 2020:
     13,563,010 km2, an increase of 35,970 km2.
     2020 is now 12th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #106 on: January 27, 2020, 01:49:24 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,563,010 km2(January 26, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 36 k, 22 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 14 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,599 k, 672 k (7.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,926 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 424 k more than 2017
- Extent is 180 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 193 k (1.8%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 90.7% of extent gain for the the season done, 44 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.48 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.60 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.4 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, with signs the warmer southerlies may be in the ascendant.

Overall the outlook still seems equally favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #107 on: January 27, 2020, 03:48:58 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,445,265 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,445,265    km2      
 297,690    km2   >   2010's average.
-5,202    km2   <   2019
-183,017    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     21    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     5    k   gain
 Central Seas__     11    k   gain
 Other Seas___     4    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     6    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -1    k   loss
 Greenland____    -10    k   loss
 Barents ______     10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain

Daily gain 21 k, 5 k LESS than the 2010's average of 26 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 298 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 5 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 703 km2
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.4 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, with signs the warmer southerlies may be in the ascendant.

Overall the outlook still seems equally favourable for and against the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #108 on: January 28, 2020, 04:52:33 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 27th, 2020:
     13,569,681 km2, an increase of 6,671 km2.
     2020 is 12th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #109 on: January 28, 2020, 11:02:14 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,569,681 km2(January 27, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 7 k, 0 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 7 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,605 k, 672 k (7.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,933 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 492 k more than 2017
- Extent is 120 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 234 k (1.8%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 90.8% of extent gain for the the season done, 43 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.48 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.60 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.4 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, with signs the warmer southerlies may be in the ascendant.

Overall the outlook still seems equally favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #110 on: January 28, 2020, 03:10:36 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 January 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,459,027 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,459,027    km2      
 288,868    km2   >   2010's average.
-12,363    km2   <   2019
-196,136    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     14    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     12    k   gain
 Central Seas__     15    k   gain
 Other Seas___    -13    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     3    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     1    k   gain
 Greenland____    -13    k   loss
 Barents ______     20    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________    9    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Daily gain 14 k, 9 k LESS than the 2010's average of 23 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 289 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 12 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 705 km2
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.4 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, with signs the warmer southerlies may be in the ascendant.

Overall the outlook still seems equally favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #111 on: January 28, 2020, 06:31:46 PM »
A look at the seas still in play for this freezing season as regards sea ice area change.

Okhotsk Sea - well above 2010's average.
Bering Sea - gain continuing.

Outlook for both seas looks favourable for more sea ice area gain.

Hudson Bay - pretty much at maximum. May be some wobbles but probably of little significance.
                   Last post until melt begins
Baffin Bay - continues to be at well below 2010's average.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #112 on: January 28, 2020, 06:37:46 PM »
A look at the other seas still in play for this freezing season as regards sea ice area change.

St. Lawrence - it must be cold there as sea ice area quite high,

Barents Sea - sea ie still increasing at a rate of knots while
the Greenland Sea Ice Area wobbles around the 2010's average.

Warm winds coming up from the Atlantic still not reaching the Barents.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #113 on: January 29, 2020, 04:51:22 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 28th, 2020:
     13,592,834 km2, an increase of 23,153 km2.
     2020 is 12th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #114 on: January 29, 2020, 12:05:27 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,592,834 km2(January 28, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 23 k, 11 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 12 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,629 k, 683 k (7.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,946 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 489 k more than 2017
- Extent is 115 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 245 k (1.8%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 90.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 42 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.49 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.61 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.8 to -1.4 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, with signs the warmer southerlies may be in the ascendant.

Overall the outlook still seems perhaps more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #115 on: January 29, 2020, 03:57:26 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 28 January 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,475,900  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,475,900    km2      
 284,581    km2   >   2010's average.
-13,422    km2   <   2019
-212,083    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     17    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     19    k   gain
 Central Seas__     13    k   gain
 Other Seas___    -16    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     4    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -0    k   loss
 Greenland____    -12    k   loss
 Barents ______     28    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    8    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -8    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss

Daily gain 17 k, 4 k LESS than the 2010's average of 21 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 284 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 13 k
- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.8 to -1.4 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems perhaps more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite the last 2 days of low sea ice area gain.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #116 on: January 30, 2020, 04:54:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 29th, 2020:
     13,625,071 km2, an increase of 32,237 km2.
     2020 is 12th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #117 on: January 30, 2020, 12:04:29 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,625,071 km2(January 29, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 32 k, 5 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 27 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,662 k, 688 k (7.7%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,973 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 502 k more than 2017
- Extent is 150 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 250 k (1.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 91.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 41 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.49 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.61 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.8 to -2.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems perhaps more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #118 on: January 30, 2020, 03:47:35 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 29 January 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,515,460 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,515,460    km2      
 299,846    km2   >   2010's average.
 21,429    km2   >   2019
-203,814    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     40    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     38    k   gain
 Central Seas__     12    k   gain
 Other Seas___    -10    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     5    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     12    k   gain
 Greenland____    -10    k   loss
 Barents ______     31    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    7    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain 40 k, 16 k MORE than the 2010's average of 24 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 300 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 21 k
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.8 to -2.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #119 on: January 30, 2020, 03:50:02 PM »
Quote
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #120 on: January 31, 2020, 04:57:26 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 30th, 2020:
     13,686,680 km2, an increase of 61,609 km2.
     2020 is now 13th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #121 on: January 31, 2020, 02:31:50 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,686,680 km2(January 30, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 62 k, 21 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 41 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,722 k, 708 k (7.9%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,014 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 506 k more than 2017
- Extent is 187 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 270 k (2.0%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 91.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 40 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is now merely 202k less than the record minimum maximum - i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record - in March 2017

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.51 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.64 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.2 to -2.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
« Last Edit: January 31, 2020, 05:37:58 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #122 on: January 31, 2020, 03:25:40 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 January 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,571,344 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,571,344    km2      
 326,887    km2   >   2010's average.
 66,252    km2   >   2019
-178,561    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     56    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     48    k   gain
 Central Seas__     12    k   gain
 Other Seas___    -5    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     10    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     19    k   gain
 Greenland____    -6    k   loss
 Barents ______     25    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Daily gain 56 k, 27 k MORE than the 2010's average of 29 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 327 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 66 k
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.2 to -2.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #123 on: January 31, 2020, 03:38:44 PM »
Quote
We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is now merely 202k less than the record minimum in March 2017
You mean the record maximum?
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dnem

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #124 on: January 31, 2020, 04:25:06 PM »
The lowest maximum on record. The minimum maximum as it were.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #125 on: January 31, 2020, 05:36:32 PM »
Quote
We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is now merely 202k less than the record minimum in March 2017
You mean the record maximum?
I meant to write the - record minimum maximum - i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record.
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PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #126 on: January 31, 2020, 10:49:59 PM »
When are we going to blast past the minimum maximum? I'm calling January February 6th.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2020, 04:24:38 PM by PragmaticAntithesis »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #127 on: January 31, 2020, 10:56:41 PM »
When are we going to blast past the minimum maximum? I'm calling January 6th.
Isn't that in the past?
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #128 on: February 01, 2020, 01:03:36 AM »

That's what's meant by 'blast past'?

I'm sure he meant February...

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #129 on: February 01, 2020, 04:43:42 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 31st, 2020:
     13,734,882 km2, an increase of 48,202 km2.
     2020 is 13th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #130 on: February 01, 2020, 01:33:21 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,734,882 km2(January 31, 2020)

I am of the opinion that the sea ice extent and extent gain in January 2020 can be regarded as an event

- Extent gain on this day 48 k, 12 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 36 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,771 k, 721 k (8.0%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,050 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 518 k more than 2017
- Extent is 255 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 283 k (2.1%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 92.0% of extent gain for the the season done, 39 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is now merely 143k less than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2017

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.53 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.65 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from -0.3 to -2.1 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly vey cold to extemely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #131 on: February 01, 2020, 01:53:35 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT January Average

The first graph shows the simple average of JAXA Arctic Sea Ice daily extents for January, and the deviation from the linear trend.

The January 2020 deviation from the trend is the highest above the trend in the satellite record since 1979.

The table shows the current extent compared with previous year's maxima. Not far to go to pass by several of the previous years' maxima. As the days go by it will be interesting to see how many previous year's maxima will be exceeded and how early.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2020, 01:59:31 PM by gerontocrat »
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Niall Dollard

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #132 on: February 01, 2020, 02:37:27 PM »

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from -0.3 to -2.1 celsius over the next 5 days.

I would rephrase that by saying the anomaly (negative, as it is) is growing not declining !

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #133 on: February 01, 2020, 03:53:11 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 31 January 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,632,374 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,632,374    km2      
 356,071    km2   >   2010's average.
 124,504    km2   >   2019
-145,246    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     61    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     49    k   gain
 Central Seas__     9    k   gain
 Other Seas___     2    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     15    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     17    k   gain
 Greenland____     5    k   gain
 Barents ______     12    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    10    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss

Daily gain 61 k, 29 k MORE than the 2010's average of 32 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 356 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 125 k
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.3 to -2.1 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #134 on: February 02, 2020, 05:35:22 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 1st, 2020:
     13,771,405 km2, an increase of 36,523 km2.
     2020 is 13th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #135 on: February 02, 2020, 11:57:43 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,771,405 km2(February 1, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 37 k, 19 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 18 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,801 k, 739 k (8.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,068 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 466 k more than 2017
- Extent is 345 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 301 k (2.2%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 92.1% of extent gain for the the season done, 38 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is now merely 107k less than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2017

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.55 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.67 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.5 to -1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #136 on: February 02, 2020, 03:16:10 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,674,424  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,674,424    km2      
 361,347    km2   >   2010's average.
 179,667    km2   >   2019
-125,820    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     42    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     32    k   gain
 Central Seas__     3    k   gain
 Other Seas___     7    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     17    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     15    k   gain
 Greenland____     10    k   gain
 Barents ______    -10    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss

Daily gain 42 k, 5 k MORE than the 2010's average of 37 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 361 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 180 k
- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.5 to -1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Jim Hunt

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #137 on: February 02, 2020, 03:25:29 PM »
Might we perhaps add the word "volume" to the title of this thread at some point in the not too distant future?

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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #138 on: February 02, 2020, 07:11:17 PM »
I dusted off the cobwebs of my spreadsheet of NSIDC SEA ICE AREAin JAXa format to see how that looks c.f. JAXA Extent. so here is

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA  12,674,424  km2(February 1, 2020)analysed according to my JAXA analysis

- Area gain on this day 42 k, 5 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 37 k,
- Area gain in this freezing season to date is 9,765 k, 552 k (6.0%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,213 k.
- Area  is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Area is 855 k more than 2016
- Area is 514 k more than 2017
- Area is 180 k MORE than 2019
- Area is 361 k (2.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 92.3% of Area gain for the the season done, 42 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily Area gains are low but highly variable.
Area is already 40k MORE than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2016

Projections.

Average remaining Area gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.44 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2016 of 12.63 million km2 by 0.81 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.5 to -1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #139 on: February 03, 2020, 06:03:45 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 2nd, 2020:
     13,770,924 km2, a small drop of -481 km2.
     2020 is 13th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #140 on: February 03, 2020, 12:22:22 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,770,924 km2(February 2, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 0 k, 40 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 40 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,807 k, 698 k (7.7%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,108 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 400 k more than 2017
- Extent is 324 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 260 k (1.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 92.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 37 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is now merely 107k less than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2017

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.50 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.63 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.2 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain on this day.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #141 on: February 03, 2020, 03:35:52 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,703,174 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,703,174    km2      
 353,531    km2   >   2010's average.
 236,982    km2   >   2019
-116,110    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     29    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     32    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -13    k   loss
 Other Seas___     10    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     20    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     15    k   gain
 Greenland____     16    k   gain
 Barents ______    -19    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    11    k   gain
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -8    k   loss

Daily gain 29 k, 7 k LESS than the 2010's average of 36 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 354 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 237 k
- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.2 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite below average gain on this day.
________________________________________________________________________
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #142 on: February 03, 2020, 04:30:11 PM »
I would again like to express my gratitude to both of you for your posts tracking extent and area progress through the freeze season. I visit daily.

weatherdude88

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #143 on: February 03, 2020, 06:48:27 PM »
For 2.2.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 14.42 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 116,000 square kilometers from the previous day.

NSIDC sea ice extent is in 15th place for the date. 2020 has more sea ice extent than 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 for the date.

The next 4 closest years are 2009, 2008, 1996, and 1991. In 3 days, 2009 will have 24,000 square kilometers less sea ice extent, than the 2.2.2009 value. If 2020 gains more than 160,000 square kilometers over the next 3 days, we will fall to 16th place for the date.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2020, 07:20:39 PM by weatherdude88 »

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #144 on: February 04, 2020, 04:47:22 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 3rd, 2020:
     13,770,577 km2, a small drop of -347 km2.
     2020 is 13th lowest on record.
     2010 has not an official value for Feb 3rd. Average used.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gandul

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #145 on: February 04, 2020, 05:52:40 AM »
For 2.2.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 14.42 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 116,000 square kilometers from the previous day.

NSIDC sea ice extent is in 15th place for the date. 2020 has more sea ice extent than 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 for the date.

The next 4 closest years are 2009, 2008,...

In other words, the 17 years with lowest sea ice extent for the date are among the first 20 years of the 21st Century. A clear perspective of long-term trend of global warming, thanks weatherdude.

Observer2019

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #146 on: February 04, 2020, 10:00:59 AM »
In other words, the 17 years with lowest sea ice extent for the date are among the first 20 years of the 21st Century. A clear perspective of long-term trend of global warming, thanks weatherdude.

Take into account that this is all based on data from 1979 and on. There is no real data from before ( there are some very bad satellite pictures from 1975'ish). Before that there is reported anecdotal data from explorers and locals that in some cases point to low arctic ice.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #147 on: February 04, 2020, 11:30:53 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,770,577 km2(February 3, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 0 k, 28 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 28 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,806 k, 670 k (7.3%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,136 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 405 k more than 2017
- Extent is 342 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 232 k (1.7%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 92.8% of extent gain for the the season done, 36 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is still merely 107k less than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2017

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.48 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.60 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.3 to +1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the lat 2 days. But the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold may fool me yet again.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #148 on: February 04, 2020, 12:02:46 PM »
That's 2 zeroes in a row! Will we see a third?
A single seed in the right place can sprout an entire forest.

binntho

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #149 on: February 04, 2020, 01:43:49 PM »
In other words, the 17 years with lowest sea ice extent for the date are among the first 20 years of the 21st Century. A clear perspective of long-term trend of global warming, thanks weatherdude.

Take into account that this is all based on data from 1979 and on. There is no real data from before ( there are some very bad satellite pictures from 1975'ish). Before that there is reported anecdotal data from explorers and locals that in some cases point to low arctic ice.

You might want to look at this 1947 report from DMI on the state of the Arctic Sea Ice.

As you probably know, 1947 was at close height of the mid-19th century warm peak. The August extent in the DMI report is of a similar magnitude to what the winter extent is likely to be this year, so between 2 and 3 times more than this decade.

So any anectodal evidence for low sea ice extent from before 1979 will have to be taken with a ton of salt. Or rather, tied to a rock and thrown overboard. Any and all documentation from before 1979 shows greater sea ice extent than what we are seeing this last decade.

This paper from 2001 shows an estimate for the 20th century. August minimum in 1947 would have been around 12 million km2.

And another paper for 2009 seems to agree roughly, taking the estimate back to 1880, which may well have been the maximum sea ice extent since the last ice age.

Having said that, apparently we have to go at least back to around 1200 CE to see extent similar to what we have been seeing in the last decade.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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