2020 Sea ice area and extent data

[Tom_Mazanec]

binntho:
1947 was in the 19th Century?
Do you mean 1847, or the 20th Century?

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 3 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,696,375 km2

A surprise - a sea ice area LOSS of 7K

Total Area           12,696,375    km2        315,702    km2   >   2010's average.  264,393    km2   >   2019 -140,072    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -7    k   loss  Peripheral Seas     12    k   gain  Central Seas__    -23    k   loss  Other Seas___     3    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     11    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain  Greenland____     18    k   gain  Barents ______    -25    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss           Kara_________   -7    k   loss Laptev_______   -4    k   loss Chukchi______    0    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    10    k   gain St Lawrence___    3    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -9    k   loss

Daily LOSS 7 k, 38 k less than the 2010's average gain of 31 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 316 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 264 k
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.3 to +1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea.

I am now totally confused on whether the overall the outlook is more favourable or less favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC AREA GRAPHS

PACIFIC GATEWAY

What a difference a year makes - Bering & Chukchi recovery.

ATLANTIC FRONT
Greenland Sea still below 2010's average.
Barents Sea well above 2010's average, but currently losing ice.

Strong winds but variable in direction likely to continue.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC AREA GRAPHS

Okhotsk & St Lawrence above 2010's average

Hudson Bay a surprise drop.

Baffin Bay now nearly at 2010's average.

[binntho]

binntho:
1947 was in the 19th Century?
Do you mean 1847, or the 20th Century?

Presenility hits again! The 20th Century of course!

[Fritz]

I'm looking up the weather forecasts of several stations around the arctis. I believe it correlates with sea ice extent and area. For this reason I expected a pause or decline in extension and area in these days. For me it's bothersome to search for weather forecasts, because I didn't find yet a site, which shows it all at first glimpse. In the next days we will see an increase, because the temperatures go down. What I don't know is the influence of warmer ocean currents. That should also be visible on some sites. It would be great to have it all here in combination.
Another number astounds me. The Hudson Bay sea ice area shrinks (1,103,974 km² now) although the temperatures around the Hudson Bay are very cold. What's the reason?

[gerontocrat]

Here are 2 graphs of NSIDC Extent divided by area as %- i.e how dispersed the ice is. If the result is 100% it means the seas are completely filled.

The graph attached is for the 7 central seas - the High Arctic. It shows that this year in early Feb the seas are 99% full, which is a 2nd lowest in the satellite record. This is another indicator of how the ice has recovered. Tomorrow a look at Wipneus' volume data.

Has volume also recovered somewhat, especially in these central seas ?

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 4^th, 2020:
     13,770,861 km², a small increase of 284 km².
     2020 is now 12^th lowest on record.
     2010 has not an official value for Feb 4th. Average used.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,770,577 km2（February 4, 2020）

- Extent gain on this day 0 k, 16 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 16 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,807 k, 654 k (7.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,153 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 434 k more than 2017
- Extent is 337 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 216 k (1.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 93.0% of extent gain for the the season done, 35 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is still merely 107k less than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2017

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.46 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.58 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.7 to +0.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold will probably fool me yet again.
_______________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

Variable daily change now and for the next month or two.

3 days of zero daily change is not that unusual at this time. I attach a table of of daily change in recent years in the beginning of February. As you can see, there are times when several days of extent losses happen before extent gain resumes.

The plume of forward projections of JAXA arctic extent also show this high variability. Yet another reason why NSIDC uses monthly averages as the main basis or their analyses.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 4 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,670,346 km2

Another surprise - a sea ice area LOSS of 26K

Total Area           12,670,346    km2        269,873    km2   >   2010's average.  270,701    km2   >   2019 -187,434    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -26    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -6    k   loss  Central Seas__    -21    k   loss  Other Seas___     1    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     8    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____    -2    k   loss  Greenland____     16    k   gain  Barents ______    -27    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__   -2    k   loss Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss           Kara_________   -7    k   loss Laptev_______   -4    k   loss Chukchi______   -1    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    8    k   gain St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss

Daily LOSS 26 k, 46 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 20 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 270 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 271 k
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.7 to +0.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold will probably fool me yet again.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 5^th, 2020:
     13,853,440 km², an increase of 82,579 km².
     2020 is now 14^th lowest on record.
     2010 has not an official value for Feb 5th. Average used.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,853,440 km2（February 5, 2020）

- Extent gain on this day 83 k, 76 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 7 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,889 k, 730 k (8.0%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,159 k.
- Extent is 14th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 530 k more than 2017
- Extent is 412 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 292 k (2.2%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 93.1% of extent gain for the the season done, 34 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is only 25 k less than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2017

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.54 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.66 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.8 to +0.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 5 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,659,132 km2

Total Area           12,659,132    km2        244,744    km2   >   2010's average.  272,834    km2   >   2019 -223,290    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -11    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -4    k   loss  Central Seas__    -20    k   loss  Other Seas___     13    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     5    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____    -7    k   loss  Greenland____     10    k   gain  Barents ______    -12    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss           Kara_________   -7    k   loss Laptev_______   -5    k   loss Chukchi______   -2    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    12    k   gain St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily LOSS 11 k, 25 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 14 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 245 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 273 k
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.8 to +0.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 6^th, 2020:
     13,939,559 km², an increase of 86,119 km².
     2020 is 14^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

P.S. Only  60.5K km² to be above 14 million km².
      Could it happen tomorrow? So soon? I'm surprised!
      Some years we made polls to bet if this milestone could happen or not ...

[Wherestheice]

This winter looks like it will be a winter that stands out in the general trend. What do you think is the reason for this? It looks like there is some extreme cold over the bering sea rn

[Lord M Vader]

Juan C: which are the other years next to 2004? I.e the years at place 16-20.

[blumenkraft]

It has taken a lot of time and energy, successes and failures to build a library of spreadsheets and data sources. So it is a bit annoying to think people have to wade through a load of clutter to reach the data.

This is a data thread. So, please please please bring data or a new way of looking at the data (when discussion is great).
If not, bugger off.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,939,559 km2（February 6, 2020）

- Extent gain on this day 86 k, 65 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,975 k, 795 k (8.7%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,180 k.
- Extent is 14th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 592 k more than 2017
- Extent is 426 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 358 k (2.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- Extent is 61 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017.


- on average 93.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 33 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.60 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.72 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.9 to +0.7 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,939,559 km2（February 6, 2020）
Addendum

- Extent on this day is 61 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017, with on average 33 days on average to maximum. I think that is an event

Only 1 question left. How high can it go?

Table attached compares current day's extent with previous years' maxima.

[Juan C. García]

Juan C: which are the other years next to 2004? I.e the years at place 16-20.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 6 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,688,572 km2

Total Area           12,688,572    km2        273,730    km2   >   2010's average.  293,308    km2   >   2019 -219,095    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     29    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     14    k   gain  Central Seas__    -13    k   loss  Other Seas___     29    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     6    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____    -9    k   loss  Greenland____     8    k   gain  Barents ______     9    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss CAA_________   -0    k   loss East Siberian__   -0    k   loss Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss           Kara_________   -4    k   loss Laptev_______   -4    k   loss Chukchi______   -3    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    20    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain

Daily gain 29 k, 29 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 0.5k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 274 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 293 k
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.9 to +0.7 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC January Update @ http://nsidc.org/articseaicenews/

[Stephan]

I took the monthly extent value for January 2020 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average January extent is now 14,25 M km². January 2020 had an average extent of 13,65 M km², which is 0,60 M km² less than that average.
The higher than average extent gains in this month pushed the actual value well above the red long term linear trend line by 1,09 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this January should have been at 13,16 M km²).
The slope of the linear trend line has thus decreased by two digits (-0,0558 instead of -0,0560).

See attached graph.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 7^th, 2020:
     13,989,242 km², an increase of 49,683 km².
     2020 is 14^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,989,242 km2（February 7, 2020）

- Extent gain on this day 50 k, 39 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 11 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,025 k, 834 k (9.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,191 k.
- Extent is 14th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 638 k more than 2017
- Extent is 470 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 396 k (2.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- Extent is 111 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017.


- on average 93.4% of extent gain for the the season done, 32 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.64 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.76 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.8 to -0.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,939,559 km2（February 7, 2020）
Addendum

Extent on this day is 111 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017, with on average 32 days on average to maximum.

If extent gain stopped on this day 2020 maximum would be 5th lowest in the satellite record (3rd lowest on the previous day). And this 5th position is where it stops for a bit

Only 1 question left. How high can it go?

Table attached compares current day's sea ice extent with previous years' maxima.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 7 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,724,547  km2

Total Area           12,724,547    km2        313,005    km2   >   2010's average.  302,774    km2   >   2019 -209,184    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     36    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     9    k   gain  Central Seas__     0    k   gain  Other Seas___     27    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     1    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____    -8    k   loss  Greenland____     1    k   gain  Barents ______     15    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic_    3    k   gain           Kara_________    0    k   gain Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Chukchi______   -2    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    22    k   gain St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    20    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain

Daily gain 36 k, 39 k more than the 2010's average LOSS of 3k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 313 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 303 k
- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.8 to -0.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 8^th, 2020:
     14,017,548 km², an increase of 28,306 km², breaking the 14M km² milestone.
     2020 is 14^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,017,548 km2（February 8, 2020）

- Extent gain on this day 28 k, 3 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 28 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,053 k, 832 k (9.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,222 k.
- Extent is 14th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 660 k more than 2017
- Extent is 460 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 394 k (2.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- Extent is 139 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017.


- on average 93.7% of extent gain for the the season done, 31 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.64 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.76 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.7 to -0.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________

[weatherdude88]

The NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area daily values show big gains over the last 4 days.

For 2.9.2020, the raw daily value is 12.985 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 61,496 square kilometers from the previous day.

The last 4 days have now seen increases from the previous day of 72,109, 148,507, 52,689, and 61,496 square kilometers of sea ice area (334,801 square kilometers in total) respectively.

We currently have significant freezing momentum.

The 2017 freezing season had a maximum sea ice area value of 12.837 millions of square kilometers on 3.6.2017. We are already 147,686 square kilometers above the 2017 freezing season single daily maximum sea ice area value.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 8 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,783,977 km2

Total Area           12,783,977    km2        368,506    km2   >   2010's average.  323,827    km2   >   2019 -181,525    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     59    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     26    k   gain  Central Seas__     9    k   gain  Other Seas___     25    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     15    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____    -3    k   loss  Greenland____    -4    k   loss  Barents ______     18    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    0    k   gain CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__    4    k   gain Central Arctic_    5    k   gain           Kara_________    3    k   gain Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Chukchi______   -0    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    16    k   gain St Lawrence___    4    k   gain Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain

Daily gain 59 k, 55 k more than the 2010's average gain of 4k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 369 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 324 k
- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.7 to -0.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average)  12,783,977  km2（February 8, 2020）
- Area gain on this day 59 k, 55 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 4k,
- Area gain in this freezing season to date is 9.874 k, 490 k (5.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,384 k.
- Area is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Area is 522 k more than 2016
- Area is 324 k MORE than 2019
- Area is 369 k MORE than the 2010's average.

- Area is already 154 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2016.

- on average 93.4% of extent gain for the the season done, 35 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily area gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining area gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2016 by 0.82 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.7 to -0.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________

[Feeltheburn]

The NSIDC shows 2020 in 15th place on Feb. 8, just now surpassing 2004.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

ADS has not updated the values.
If someone post the data, as soon as it is published.

Thanks.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[MrGreeny]

Still hasn't updated but will keep an eye out.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 9 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,836,472 km2

Total Area           12,836,472    km2        418,532    km2   >   2010's average.  352,001    km2   >   2019 -164,417    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     52    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     23    k   gain  Central Seas__     12    k   gain  Other Seas___     17    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     14    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     2    k   gain  Greenland____    -7    k   loss  Barents ______     15    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    0    k   gain CAA_________   -3    k   loss East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic_    6    k   gain           Kara_________    5    k   gain Laptev_______    0    k   gain Chukchi______   -0    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    4    k   gain St Lawrence___    6    k   gain Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain

Daily gain 52 k, 50 k more than the 2010's average gain of 2k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 419 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 352 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by only 164 k

- 2020 area 14th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.7 to -0.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.
At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev from interior Western Russia.
A messy picture as the warmth from the rising sun fights the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

Overall I now have not a clue (nor did I ever), as to whether the outlook is more favourable or not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue in the peripheral seas. Beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Sea Ice Area as at 9 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,836,472 km2

ADDENDUM

The table attached compares current sea ice area with previous years' maxima. Current area is already greater than 2 previous years' maxima,  (2016 by 206K), and likely by at least 2 more years in the next day or two.

It is even possible that this year's maximum could be greater than the 2000's average maximum.
____________________-
Caveat:
The first graph - the plume of projected sea ice area from previous years' daily change - shows how variable that change is during progress to maximum.
__________________________
The second graph shows how the 365 day trailing average of Arctic sea ice area is now very much on the rise, and will continue until such time the current sea ice area becomes less than that of one year ago.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 9^th, 2020:
     14,033,312 km², an increase of 15,764 km².

February 10^th, 2020:
     14,012,340 km², a drop of -20,972 km².
     2020 is now 13^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,012,340 km2（February 10, 2020）

I hope none are in too much distress from a day's missing Jaxa Update.


- Extent loss (a -ve gain) on this day 21 k, 31 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 10 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,048 k, 790 k (8.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,258 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 641 k more than 2017
- Extent is 363 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 353 k (2.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- Extent is 134 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017.


- on average 94.1% of extent gain for the the season done, 29 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.60 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.72 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.9 to +0.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.
At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev from interior Western Russia.
A messy picture as the warmth from the rising sun fights the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

Overall I now have not a clue (nor did I ever), as to whether the outlook is more favourable or not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue in the peripheral seas. Beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 10 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,875,584 km2

Total Area           12,875,584    km2        454,260    km2   >   2010's average.  373,273    km2   >   2019 -161,126    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     39    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     20    k   gain  Central Seas__     11    k   gain  Other Seas___     7    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     18    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain  Greenland____    -10    k   loss  Barents ______     4    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    0    k   gain CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__    1    k   gain Central Arctic_    5    k   gain           Kara_________    5    k   gain Laptev_______    1    k   gain Chukchi______    1    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss St Lawrence___    7    k   gain Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain

Daily gain 39 k, 36 k more than the 2010's average gain of 3 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 454 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 33 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by only 161 k

- 2020 area 14th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.9 to +0.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.
At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev from interior Western Russia.
A messy picture as the warmth from the rising sun fights the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

Overall I now have not a clue (nor did I ever), as to whether the outlook is more favourable or not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue in the peripheral seas. Beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

It is the Bering & Barents Seas that are really doing the biz at the moment.

[Shared Humanity]

Thanks again for the updates...a must visit for me...

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 11^th, 2020:
     13,992,038 km², a drop of -20,302 km².
     2020 is 13^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,992,038 km2（February 11, 2020）

2 days of 20k daily losses

- Extent loss (i.e. -ve gain) on this day 20 k, 34 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 14 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,028 k, 756 k (8.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,272 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 641 k more than 2017
- Extent is 297 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 318 k (2.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 94.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 28 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.60 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.72 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +0.3 to +1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev into the CAB from interior Western Russia.

A messy picture as the warmth from the rising sun fights the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

Overall I now have not a clue (nor did I ever), as to whether the outlook is more favourable or not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue in the peripheral seas. Beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________

[roger white]

Very interesting what a cold winter it is in the arctic with the sea ice extent greater than 9 out of the 10 past years.
Indeed the sea ice this winter seems greater than the 2010's average.
Looks like a 2-3% decadal decrease in arctic sea ice since the 80's & no signs of acceleration of this trend decade by decade.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 11 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,884,326 km2

Total Area           12,884,326    km2        450,944    km2   >   2010's average.  365,954    km2   >   2019 -184,808    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     9    k   gain  Peripheral Seas    -1    k   loss  Central Seas__     3    k   gain  Other Seas___     7    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     12    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     11    k   gain  Greenland____    -12    k   loss  Barents ______    -12    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    0    k   gain CAA_________   -3    k   loss East Siberian__   -0    k   loss Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss           Kara_________    2    k   gain Laptev_______    3    k   gain Chukchi______    1    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -7    k   loss St Lawrence___    5    k   gain Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain

Daily gain 9 k, 3 k less than the 2010's average gain of 12 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 451 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 366 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by only 185 k

- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +0.3 to +1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev into the CAB from interior Western Russia.

A messy picture as the warmth from the rising sun fights the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much as to make projections a mugs' game
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 12^th, 2020:
     13,939,657 km², a drop of -52,381 km².
     2020 is now 12^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,939,657 km2（February 12, 2020）

2 days of 20k daily losses followed by a 52k loss is a substantial wobble but not unprecedented.

- Extent loss (i.e. -ve gain) on this day 52 k, 84 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 32 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,975 k, 672 k (7.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,304 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 542 k more than 2017
- Extent is 184 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 234 k (2.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 94.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 27 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.48 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.60 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +1.1 to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev into the CAB from interior Western Russia.

A messy picture as the warmth from the rising sun fights the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much as to make projections a mugs' game
_______________________________________________________________________

[gandul]

And this is happening with a polar vortex on steroids and the Arctic Oscillation in an all-time, record-breaking maximum. What gives? Textbook says the Arctic should be very cold and the ice pack  expanding.