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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #200 on: February 13, 2020, 03:59:05 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,869,832 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,869,832    km2      
 415,358    km2   >   2010's average.
 338,681    km2   >   2019
-226,369    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -15    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -15    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -8    k   loss
 Other Seas___     8    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     9    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     10    k   gain
 Greenland____    -8    k   loss
 Barents ______    -26    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain
Daily LOSS (i.e. -ve gain) of 15 k, 36 k less than the 2010's average gain of 21 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 415 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 339 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by only 226 k

- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +1.1 to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev into the CAB from interior Western Russia.

A messy picture, being the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much as to make projections a mugs' game.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #201 on: February 13, 2020, 04:21:07 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,869,832 km2
Some graphs


The Bering Sea's impressive sea ice gains are now at the 2000's average.
The Baffin Sea is still at a low area.

On the Atlantic Front it is probably mostly to do with the strong north and south winds in recent weeks.
The Greenland Sea ice area has been impressively wobbly, sea ice area mostly below the 2010's average since the beginning of December.

The Barents Sea ice area has been mostly at or above the 2000's average since early December, and now seems to have caught a dose of the wobbles virus. Blame the very strong polar vortex as it crosses the Atlantic (at 250 hpa up to 350km/h ).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #202 on: February 13, 2020, 08:15:18 PM »
And this is happening with a polar vortex on steroids and the Arctic Oscillation in an all-time, record-breaking maximum. What gives? Textbook says the Arctic should be very cold and the ice pack  expanding.

If you simply read gerontocrat's comprehensive post, you will have your answer. Fluctuations are normal this time of year.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #203 on: February 14, 2020, 05:09:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 13th, 2020:
     13,903,299 km2, a drop of -36,358 km2.
     2020 is now 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #204 on: February 14, 2020, 11:00:06 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,903,299 km2(February 13, 2020)

2 days of 20k daily losses followed by a 52k and a 36k loss is a substantial wobble but not unprecedented.

- Extent loss (i.e. -ve gain) on this day 36 k, 87 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 51 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,939 k, 584 k (6.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,355 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 467 k more than 2017
- Extent is 43 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 147 k (1.1%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 95.0% of extent gain for the the season done, 26 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.39 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.51 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +1.7 to +2.9 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev into the CAB from interior Western Russia.

A messy picture, being the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much as to make projections a mugs' game.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #205 on: February 14, 2020, 11:09:56 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,903,299 km2(February 13, 2020)
Postscript - the Perils of Projections[/b]

I attach a table of the daily change of sea ice extent in February in recent years. Ups and downs like a demented yo-yo. It is the same in March.

Thus the plume of forward projections looks like the data came from a random number generator.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Downpuppy

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #206 on: February 14, 2020, 02:19:59 PM »
So you're saying we can't call maximum & open the Melting Season thread?
Drat! :-\

karl dubhe2

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #207 on: February 14, 2020, 04:15:15 PM »


I attach a table of the daily change of sea ice extent in February in recent years. Ups and downs like a demented yo-yo. It is the same in March.


So, could we start a thread about the Demented Yo-Yo season?   (kidding!)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #208 on: February 14, 2020, 04:32:27 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,835,329 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,835,329    km2      
 357,211    km2   >   2010's average.
 275,541    km2   >   2019
-275,660    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -35    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -31    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -15    k   loss
 Other Seas___     12    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -2    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     5    k   gain
 Greenland____    -2    k   loss
 Barents ______    -32    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -14    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Daily LOSS (i.e. -ve gain) of 35 k, 59 k less than the 2010's average gain of 24 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 357 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 276 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 276 k

- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +1.7 to +2.9 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev into the CAB from interior Western Russia.

A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice). To add to that, the extra strong polar vortex in the Atlantic spawned Storm Ciara and now Storm Dennis which look like it has caused, is causing and will cause havoc in the Atlantic Front.

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much as to make projections a mugs' game.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 04:39:56 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #209 on: February 15, 2020, 05:19:35 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 14th, 2020:
     13,930,708 km2, an increase of 27,409 km2.
     2020 is now 9th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #210 on: February 15, 2020, 12:18:19 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,930,708 km2(February 14, 2020)

Back to a sea ice extent gain.

- Extent gain on this day 27 k, 27 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 54 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,966 k, 558 k (5.9%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,409 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 384 k more than 2017
- Extent is 23 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 120 k (0.8%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 95.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 25 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.36 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.48 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +2.1 to +3.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy picture, being the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

Indeed so messy and so quickly changing that the best thing to do is to go to https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom and look for yourself.

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much that I am just sitting back and watching with a coffee.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #211 on: February 15, 2020, 03:42:03 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,828,103 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,828,103    km2      
 314,007    km2   >   2010's average.
 215,196    km2   >   2019
-291,879    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -7    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -9    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -19    k   loss
 Other Seas___     21    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     3    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     2    k   gain
 Greenland____     12    k   gain
 Barents ______    -27    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -18    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    14    k   gain
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Daily LOSS (i.e. -ve gain) of 7 k, 41 k less than the 2010's average gain of 36 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 314 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 215 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 292 k

- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.

Note how wind/warmth has reached the Barents & the Kara Seas.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +2.1 to +3.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy picture, being the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

Indeed so messy and so quickly changing that the best thing to do is to go to https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom and look for yourself.

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much that I am just sitting back and watching with a coffee.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #212 on: February 16, 2020, 04:49:48 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 15th, 2020:
     13,994,194 km2, an increase of 63,486 km2.
     2020 is now 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #213 on: February 16, 2020, 09:28:01 AM »
The lowest September years were 2012, 2019, 2016, and 2007.
If I look at the actual Sea Ice Extent, the years 2013, 2020, and 2008 (each of them five months after very low minima) have a higher than average Sea Ice Extent. The only exception is 2017, but in this case we had record low values in Oct/Nov/Dec 2016, and not enough time for a re-freeze to an extent needed to be above average as well.
Is this a kind of a bounce-back, i.e. a negative feedback loop, or just an expression of natural variability?
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #214 on: February 16, 2020, 01:51:31 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,994,194 km2(February 15, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 63 k, 22 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 41 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,030 k, 580 k (6.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,449 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 320 k more than 2017
- Extent is 49 k more than 2019
- Extent is 143 k (1.0%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 96.0% of extent gain for the the season done, 24 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.39 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.51 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.4 to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).
Indeed so messy and so quickly changing that the best thing to do is to go to https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom and look for yourself.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #215 on: February 16, 2020, 05:15:05 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,815,738 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,815,738    km2      
 258,683    km2   >   2010's average.
 157,252    km2   >   2019
-317,014    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -12    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -18    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -16    k   loss
 Other Seas___     21    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -3    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -2    k   loss
 Greenland____     6    k   gain
 Barents ______    -19    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -14    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Daily LOSS (i.e. -ve gain) of 12 k, 55 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 43 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 29 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 157 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 317 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.

Note how wind/warmth has reached the Barents & the Kara Seas.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.4 to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

Indeed so messy and so quickly changing that the best thing to do is to go to https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom and look for yourself.

For a better look at the winds goto NullSchool, e.g. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-45.71,79.73,562/loc=88.996,88.996
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Shared Humanity

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #216 on: February 16, 2020, 07:11:54 PM »

Is this a kind of a bounce-back, i.e. a negative feedback loop, or just an expression of natural variability?

The latter IMHO but there are others here who can offer more.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #217 on: February 16, 2020, 07:14:35 PM »

Is this a kind of a bounce-back, i.e. a negative feedback loop, or just an expression of natural variability?

The latter IMHO but there are others here who can offer more.
The freezing thread is where one hopes to find the whys and wherefores of what is happening. You might be lucky if you take a look.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #218 on: February 16, 2020, 07:28:47 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) - 3 Graphs

On the Atlantic Front the winds and warmth are producing area losses in the Barents and Kara Seas, while a contrary wind is encouraging ice export into the Greenland Sea.

Might last a few days more.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #219 on: February 17, 2020, 05:00:40 AM »
Is this a kind of a bounce-back, i.e. a negative feedback loop, or just an expression of natural variability?
I think it is natural variability.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 16th, 2020:
     13,979,513 km2, a drop of-14,681 km2.
     2020 is now 9th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: February 17, 2020, 05:12:10 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #220 on: February 17, 2020, 12:25:53 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,979,513 km2(February 16, 2020)

- Extent loss (-ve gain) on this day 15 k, 36 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,015 k, 545 k (5.8%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,471 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 270 k more than 2017
- Extent is 60 k more than 2019
- Extent is 107 k (0.8%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 96.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 23 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.35 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.47 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.2 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 55+ days after the winter solstice).

Indeed so messy and so quickly changing that the best thing to do is to go to https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom and look for yourself.

For a better look at the winds goto NullSchool, e.g. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-45.71,79.73,562/loc=88.996,88.996
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #221 on: February 17, 2020, 03:30:36 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,813,605 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,813,605    km2      
 211,735    km2   >   2010's average.
 109,561    km2   >   2019
-336,393    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -2    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -6    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -7    k   loss
 Other Seas___     11    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -1    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -3    k   loss
 Greenland____     5    k   gain
 Barents ______    -8    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Daily LOSS (i.e. -ve gain) of 2 k, 47 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 45 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 212 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 110 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 336 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.2 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 55+ days after the winter solstice).

Indeed so messy and so quickly changing that the best thing to do is to go to https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom and look for yourself.

For a better look at the winds goto NullSchool, e.g. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-45.71,79.73,562/loc=88.996,88.996
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #222 on: February 18, 2020, 04:44:09 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 17th, 2020:
     13,952,752 km2, a drop of -26,761 km2.
     2020 is now 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #223 on: February 18, 2020, 08:46:52 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,952,752 km2(February 17, 2020)

- Extent loss (-ve gain) on this day 27 k, 22 k more than the average loss (of the last 10 years) of 5 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,989 k, 523 k (5.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,466 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 230 k more than 2017
- Extent is 26 k more than 2019
- Extent is 85 k (0.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 96.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 22 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.31 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.43 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.4 to +2.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 55+ days after the winter solstice).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #224 on: February 18, 2020, 03:22:59 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,830,513 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,830,513    km2      
 188,707    km2   >   2010's average.
 85,345    km2   >   2019
-343,122    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     17    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     9    k   gain
 Central Seas__     2    k   gain
 Other Seas___     6    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     0    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -2    k   loss
 Greenland____     5    k   gain
 Barents ______     5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Daily gain of 17 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 40 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 189 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 85 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 343 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.4 to +2.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 55+ days after the winter solstice).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #225 on: February 19, 2020, 04:57:40 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 18th, 2020:
     13,955,872 km2, a small increase of 3,120 km2.
     2020 is now 9th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #226 on: February 19, 2020, 10:22:39 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,955,872 km2(February 18, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 3 k, 0 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 3 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,992 k, 523 k (5.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,469 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 225 k more than 2017
- Extent is 7 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 85 k (0.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 96.4% of extent gain for the the season done, 21 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.31 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.43 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.8 to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #227 on: February 19, 2020, 04:12:12 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,855,739  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,855,739    km2      
 183,900    km2   >   2010's average.
 86,420    km2   >   2019
-343,523    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     25    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     12    k   gain
 Central Seas__     4    k   gain
 Other Seas___     9    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     3    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     3    k   gain
 Greenland____     5    k   gain
 Barents ______     0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Daily gain of 25 k, 5 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 30 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 184 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 86 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 344 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.8 to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #228 on: February 20, 2020, 04:46:19 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 19th, 2020:
     13,984,579 km2, an increase of 28,707 km2.
     2020 is 9th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #229 on: February 20, 2020, 11:23:23 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,984,579 km2(February 19, 2020)

Current maximum 2020 is still 14.03 million km2 on the 9th February.

- Extent gain on this day 29 k, 7 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 22 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,020 k, 529 k (5.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,491 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 206 k more than 2017
- Extent is 28 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 91 k (0.7%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 96.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 20 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.32 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.44 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.6 to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #230 on: February 20, 2020, 03:10:02 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,860,204  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,860,204    km2      
 164,618    km2   >   2010's average.
 70,281    km2   >   2019
-361,474    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     4    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     1    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -10    k   loss
 Other Seas___     14    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -1    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     12    k   gain
 Greenland____    -6    k   loss
 Barents ______    -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Daily gain of 4 k, 20 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 24 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 165 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 70 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 361 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.6 to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America .
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #231 on: February 21, 2020, 04:48:09 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 20th, 2020:
     14,099,241 km2, a century increase of 114,662 km2:o
     2020 is now 10th lowest on record (& even with 2012, the 11th lowest).
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #232 on: February 21, 2020, 10:22:29 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,099,241 km2(February 20, 2020)

There's a surprise. 115k extent increase and a new current maximum.

- Extent gain on this day 115 k, 95 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 20 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,135 k, 624 k (8.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,511k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 322 k more than 2017
- Extent is 14 k more than 2019
- Extent is 186 k (1.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 96.8% of extent gain for the the season done, 19 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.42 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.44 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America .
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #233 on: February 21, 2020, 03:53:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,878,752 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,878,752    km2      
 166,589    km2   >   2010's average.
 54,998    km2   >   2019
-352,563    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     19    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     18    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -16    k   loss
 Other Seas___     16    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     5    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     17    k   gain
 Greenland____     3    k   gain
 Barents ______    -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    9    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Daily gain of 19 k, 2 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 17 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 167 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 55 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 353 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America .
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #234 on: February 22, 2020, 04:46:35 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 21st, 2020:
     14,182,140 km2, an increase of 82,899 km2 (and new 2020 max).
     2020 is now 14th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #235 on: February 22, 2020, 03:10:33 PM »
Wow, almost 200k in two days. Those are some rather impressive gains!
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jdallen

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #236 on: February 22, 2020, 10:39:36 PM »
Wow, almost 200k in two days. Those are some rather impressive gains!
Interesting in that it appears mostly to be via dispersion.  Area hasn't climbed nearly as fast.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #237 on: February 22, 2020, 11:30:38 PM »
Area hasn't climbed nearly as fast.

Especially if you look at Wipneus' high res version!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

jdallen

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #238 on: February 23, 2020, 01:07:49 AM »
Area hasn't climbed nearly as fast.

Especially if you look at Wipneus' high res version!
Yeah, I glanced at that but was looking originally at the raw numbers from JAXA.

Still trying to decide on meaning.  Some interesting points along the way... DMI 80N temperatures appear to be ramping up to where they are taking a run at 2016 for FDD's, difference being from the last few years, things are starting colder and potentially ending warmer.

I'll be watching volume numbers and am wondering if we've reached peak extent/area.  Even if we haven't I suspect we are close. 

Northern hemisphere snow numbers don't seem that unusual aside from Europe, and I'm wondering what impact that might have for over-all warming and possible effect on the Barents and Kara numbers over the next couple of weeks.  But if nothing else, the divergence between area vs extent rise implies a mobile pack, at least on the Atlantic side.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #239 on: February 23, 2020, 04:48:18 AM »
Area hasn't climbed nearly as fast.

Especially if you look at Wipneus' high res version!
Interesting comments, jdallen & Jim  ;)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 22nd, 2020:
     14,226,335 km2, an increase of 44,195 km2 (and new 2020 max).
     2020 is now 13th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: February 23, 2020, 05:03:00 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #240 on: February 23, 2020, 09:14:23 PM »
Normal service will not be resumed for up to 2 weeks.
I was under the illusion that I was in control of my life - "events, dear boy, events".

Spasmodic postings at odd hours will hopefully continue.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,226,335 km2(February 22, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 44 k, 23 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,262 k, 705 k (7.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,557k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 414 k more than 2017
- Extent is 32 k more than 2019
- Extent is 267 k (1.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.1% of extent gain for the the season done, 17 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.51 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.63 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +4.0 to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Jim Hunt

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #241 on: February 23, 2020, 10:59:47 PM »
Interesting comments, jdallen & Jim  ;)

The abnormally low UH AMSR2 area didn't last. Possibly an artifact of recent "weather", or actual refreezing of actual low concentration areas created by said weather?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Glen Koehler

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #242 on: February 24, 2020, 01:49:36 AM »
Normal service will not be resumed for up to 2 weeks.
I was under the illusion that I was in control of my life - "events, dear boy, events".

   The older one gets the more often that realization gets thrown in our face. 
   Best wishes for whatever you are dealing with.  And thanks for whatever you can squeeze in for ASI updates along the way.

The Walrus

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #243 on: February 24, 2020, 02:51:03 AM »
You are probably right Jim.  The ice will probably increase once the weather subsided.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #244 on: February 24, 2020, 04:52:04 AM »
I was under the illusion that I was in control of my life - "events, dear boy, events".
Spasmodic postings at odd hours will hopefully continue.
Hope that everything will be fine, Gerontocrat. Best wishes from Mexico!

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 23rd, 2020:
     14,171,323 km2, a drop of -55,012 km2.
     2020 is now 11th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #245 on: February 24, 2020, 11:43:13 AM »
It is snowing, so events have interrupted the events, which means here is a spasmodic posting.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,171,323 km2(February 23, 2020)

- Extent LOSS on this day 55 k, 78 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 23 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,207 k, 627 k (6.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,580 k.
- Extent is 11th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 332 k more than 2017
- Extent is 15 k more than 2019
- Extent is 189 k (1.4%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.4% of extent gain for the the season done, 16 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.43 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.55 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +3.7 to +1.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Glen Koehler

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #246 on: February 24, 2020, 03:11:42 PM »
OT - I see gerontocrat has 7439 posts and is classified as "'First-year ice".  My God, what do you have to do to reach 2nd year ice?  Not even going to ask what it takes to reach "MYI". ;D

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #247 on: February 24, 2020, 03:50:58 PM »
No second year ice.
I think 10000 is multiyear ice.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #248 on: February 24, 2020, 07:33:21 PM »
What's in a name?

I think Frazil is more me  -Frazil ice is a collection of loose, randomly oriented, plate or discoid ice crystals formed in supercooled turbulent water.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #249 on: February 24, 2020, 07:46:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,962,961  km2
                                 
Total Area
 12,962,961    km2      
 212,015    km2   >   2010's average.
 32,029    km2   >   2019
-265,281    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     30    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     32    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -19    k   loss
 Other Seas___     16    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     12    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain
 Greenland____     10    k   gain
 Barents ______     2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -16    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    16    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Daily gain of 30 k, 16 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 14 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 212 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 32 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 265 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +3.7 to +1.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)