2020 Sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Sea Ice Area as at 23 February 2020 (5 day trailing average)
Addendum

Both the Bering and Okhotsk Seas sea ice area continue an impressive climb

The Barents Sea ice area steep decline has stalled.

Off-shore winds and high +ve temperature from Siberia have done a mischief to the sea ice in the Kara Sea.

I am blaming the very strong polar vortex provoking stormy weather in The North Pacific and the Atlantic Front.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 24^th, 2020:
     14,097,689 km², a drop of -73,634 km².
     2020 is now 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,097,689 km2（February 24, 2020）

- Extent LOSS on this day 74 k, 91 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 17 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,133 k, 536 k (5.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,597 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 291 k more than 2017
- Extent is 23 k more than 2019
- Extent is 98 k (0.7%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 15 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.34 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.46 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +3.4 to +0.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant still in play seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.

[Stephan]

Has Kara Sea already passed its maximum this winter? It has lost an area of ca. 120 kkm² inthe last days...

[interstitial]

Neven is first year Ice. While multi year ice is technically possible there is none and I think that is the point

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 24 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,992,571  km2

Total Area           12,992,571    km2        232,406    km2   >   2010's average.  69,319    km2   >   2019 -238,534    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     30    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     31    k   gain  Central Seas__    -11    k   loss  Other Seas___     10    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     16    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     3    k   gain  Greenland____     11    k   gain  Barents ______     1    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________   -0    k   loss East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_    0    k   gain           Kara_________   -11    k   loss Laptev_______   -2    k   loss Chukchi______    1    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    14    k   gain St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain of 30 k, 21k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 9 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 232 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 69 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 239 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +3.4 to +0.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now more than 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant still in play seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia. This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Neven is first year Ice. While multi year ice is technically possible there is none and I think that is the point

AbruptSLR and Sigmetnow are multiyear ice.

[blumenkraft]

It has taken a lot of time and energy, successes and failures to build a library of spreadsheets and data sources. So it is a bit annoying to think people have to wade through a load of clutter to reach the data.

This is a data thread. So, please please please bring data or a new way of looking at the data (when discussion is great).
If not, bugger off.

[interstitial]

@Tom
your right my bad.
Better to say it is rare.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 25^th, 2020:
     14,082,564 km², a drop of -15,125 km².
     2020 is now 9^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,082,564 km2（February 25, 2020）

- Extent LOSS on this day 15 k, 17 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 2 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,118 k, 519 k (5.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,599 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 310 k more than 2017
- Extent is 64 k more than 2019
- Extent is 82 k (0.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 14 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.32 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.44 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +2.7 to +0.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now more than 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant still in play seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia. This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 25 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,002,775  km2

Total Area           13,002,775    km2        229,879    km2   >   2010's average.  104,780    km2   >   2019 -237,619    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     10    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     20    k   gain  Central Seas__    -17    k   loss  Other Seas___     7    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     8    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     2    k   gain  Greenland____     11    k   gain  Barents ______     0    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    0    k   gain CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_    2    k   gain           Kara_________   -13    k   loss Laptev_______   -7    k   loss Chukchi______    1    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    9    k   gain St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain of 10 k, 3 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 13 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 230 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 105 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 238 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +2.7 to +0.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now more than 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant still in play seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia. This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.

[gerontocrat]

Kara Sea Ice area loss is impressive, but Bering Sea ice area gain is approaching astounding.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 26^th, 2020:
     14,168,505 km², an increase of 85,941 km².
     2020 is now 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[jdallen]

Kara Sea Ice area loss is impressive, but Bering Sea ice area gain is approaching astounding.

The Kara loss disturbs more than the Bering gain reassures me.

That gain is still only about 100K km2 more than the 2010's average and still well under 2012/13.

The Kara loss has the potential to weaken the central pack much more than the Bering increase will strengthen it.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,168,505 km2（February 26, 2020）

- Extent gain on this day 86 k, 76 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 10 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,204 k, 595 k (6.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,609 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 205 k more than 2017
- Extent is 173 k more than 2019
- Extent is 158 k (1.1%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 13 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.40 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.52 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +2.5 to +0.3 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now more than 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant still in play seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia. This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 26 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,011,317  km2

Total Area           13,011,317    km2        231,782    km2   >   2010's average.  161,075    km2   >   2019 -243,805    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     9    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     23    k   gain  Central Seas__    -20    k   loss  Other Seas___     5    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     5    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     6    k   gain  Greenland____     11    k   gain  Barents ______     2    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__   -4    k   loss Central Arctic_    4    k   gain           Kara_________   -12    k   loss Laptev_______   -10    k   loss Chukchi______    0    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    4    k   gain St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain

Daily gain of 9 k, 2 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 7 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 232 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 161 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 244 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.

The warmth & offshore winds in Siberia now resulting in sea ice area loss extending from the Kara Sea to the Laptev Sea & the ESS.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +2.5 to +0.3 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now less than 4 weeks from the Spring equinox).

However, one constant still persists -very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia. This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.

However, there are increasing signs that after 5 days this persistent weather pattern may be due for a significant change - but what to?

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Sorry guys, my Excel stop working… 

If someone else can make the post. Thanks!
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

(I hope that I could fix it tomorrow…     ).

P.S. Big increase, from 14.17 M to 14.3 M km². 130K km² aprox.
New 2020 max.

[gerontocrat]

ASIF returns from the dead - or was it just me?

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,295,372 km2（February 27, 2020）

Wot a large gain - the ups and downs in extent expected at this time of year are extra extreme this year

- Extent gain on this day 127 k, 140 k more than the average loss (of the last 10 years) of 13 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,331 k, 736 k (7.7%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,595 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 576 k more than 2017
- Extent is 336 k more than 2019
- Extent is 298 k (2.1%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 12 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.53 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.65 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +2.3 to +0.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now more than 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant still in play seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia. This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.

But there are ever increasing signs that after 4-5 days this persistent weather pattern may be due for a significant change - but what to?

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 27 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,019,043 km2

Total Area           13,019,043    km2        239,783    km2   >   2010's average.  231,047    km2   >   2019 -258,435    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     8    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     16    k   gain  Central Seas__    -14    k   loss  Other Seas___     5    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     3    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     4    k   gain  Greenland____     6    k   gain  Barents ______     3    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss CAA_________    4    k   gain East Siberian__   -5    k   loss Central Arctic_    3    k   gain           Kara_________   -5    k   loss Laptev_______   -9    k   loss Chukchi______   -1    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain

Daily gain of 8 k, 8 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 0 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 240 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 231 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 258 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.

The warmth & offshore winds in Siberia now resulting in sea ice area loss extending from the Kara Sea to the Laptev Sea & the ESS. It looks like in the days ahead Kara ice area loss will reverse into gain (offshore winds becoming onshore), while the Laptev and ESS might see accelerating ice area loss.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +2.3 to +0.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now more than 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant still in play seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia. This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.

But there are ever increasing signs that after 4-5 days this persistent weather pattern may be due for a significant change - but what to?

[Tom_Mazanec]

gerontocracy:
I was getting database error also.

[Archimid]

Not just you. I'm glad it is back.

[Juan C. García]

Not just you. I'm glad it is back.

+ 1

I am going to be without Excel for 2 or 3 days. Just posting the graph these days.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 28^th, 2020:
     14.35M km², an increase of ~50K km².
     New 2020 max record.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[Stephan]

On behalf of Juan's not working Excel programme here the JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent data for Feb 28, 2020, sorted by value:
  1. 2018 13.73 M km²
  2. 2017 13.75 M km²
  3. 2015 13.82 M km²
  4. 2011 13.91 M km²
  4. 2019 13.91 M km²
  6. 2006 13.92 M km²
  7. 2016 13.94 M km²
(-) 2010s 14.02 M km²
  8. 2014 14.03 M km²
  9. 2007 14.10 M km²
10. 2010 14.24 M km²
11. 2005 14.25 M km²
12. 2012 14.34 M km²
13. 2020 14.35 M km²
14. 2013 14.51 M km²
15. 2009 14.57 M km²
16. 2004 14.60 M km²
(-) 2000s 14.64 M km²

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 29^th, 2020:
     14.35M km², if I'm right with a manual calculation, a drop of only 4K km².
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

The 29th February does not exist in my spreadsheets.
So no postings on sea ice today.

50-50 chance of being able to post something tomorrow.

[PragmaticAntithesis]

Oh no, the accursed leap day strikes again!

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 1^st, 2020:
     14,386,278 km², an increase of 38,052 km².
     New 2020 max record.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
     

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,386,278 km2（March 1, 2020）

- Extent gain in the last 2 days 91 k, 35 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 56 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,384 k, 771 k (8.0%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,651 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 584 k more than 2017
- Extent is 477 k more than 2019
- Extent is 333 k (2.4%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.8% of extent gain for the the season done, 9 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.56 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.68 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +1.5 to -2.1 celsius over the next 5 days.

[Downpuppy]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,386,278 km2（March 1, 2020）

- Extent gain in the last 2 days 91 k,

I think this is a 3 day gain. Leap day isn't in your spreadsheet, but I fear it's real.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,386,278 km2（March 1, 2020）

- Extent gain in the last 2 days 91 k,

I think this is a 3 day gain. Leap day isn't in your spreadsheet, but I fear it's real.

My reality belongs to me, even though you are correct.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 1 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,147,968  km2

Total Area           13,147,968    km2        359,325    km2   >   2010's average.  482,807    km2   >   2019 -216,043    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     60    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     37    k   gain  Central Seas__     15    k   gain  Other Seas___     8    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     3    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     5    k   gain  Greenland____     5    k   gain  Barents ______     24    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__   -4    k   loss Central Arctic_    4    k   gain           Kara_________    17    k   gain Laptev_______   -2    k   loss Chukchi______   -1    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    2    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain

Daily gain of 60 k, 56 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 4 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 359 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 483 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 216 k

- 2020 area 14th lowest in the satellite record.

Kara ice area loss has reversed into gain (offshore winds becoming onshore), while the Laptev and ESS see some ice area loss.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +1.5 to -2.1 celsius over the next 5 days.

[Juan C. García]

I'm back to routine posts... 

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 2^nd, 2020:
     14,412,259 km², an increase of 25,981 km² (And new 2020 max).
     2020 is now 12^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[nanning]

Thank you for all your posts Juan.
I think it should be possible to put your Excel files on an usb stick and take them whereever you want.
I have my whole backup + files+ plug-in running linux/GNU system on an usb stick. If I put it in another computer, it will start up with my system and my desktop with my important files. In effect I carry my whole system wth me. This usb stick is behind a zipper in my wallet.

[Fractious]

It's getting down to the wire.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 3^rd, 2020:
     14,447,641 km², an increase of 35,382 km² (and new 2020 max).
     2020 is now 13^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[Juan C. García]

Thank you for all your posts Juan.
I think it should be possible to put your Excel files on an usb stick and take them whereever you want.
I have my whole backup + files+ plug-in running linux/GNU system on an usb stick. If I put it in another computer, it will start up with my system and my desktop with my important files. In effect I carry my whole system wth me. This usb stick is behind a zipper in my wallet.

Thank you for your comments, Nanning.
The true is that I don't use an Excel file that is mine, to make these posts. I just download the last ADS-NIPR-VISHOP file and work with it. It was impossible to do this work without the Excel program. I could use another computer, but I only have a permanent log-in on my computer.

I don't remember my original password to the ASIF, so I cannot log-in on another computer.    I hope I will not need it... 

[Back to topic...]

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,447,641 km2（March 3, 2020）

- Extent gain in the last 2 days 61 k, 15 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 46 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,483 k, 814 k (8.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,670 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 634 k more than 2017
- Extent is 433 k more than 2019
- Extent is 376 k (2.7%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 98.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 7 days on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.59 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.71 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +0.7 to -2.1 celsius over the next 5 days.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 3 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,249,753  km2

Total Area           13,249,753    km2        425,267    km2   >   2010's average.  552,161    km2   >   2019 -147,786    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     51    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     30    k   gain  Central Seas__     11    k   gain  Other Seas___     11    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     2    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     7    k   gain  Greenland____     1    k   gain  Barents ______     20    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_    1    k   gain           Kara_________    13    k   gain Laptev_______    2    k   gain Chukchi______   -1    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    10    k   gain St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain

A gain of 102 k in the last 2 days,, 62 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 36 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 425 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 552 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 148 k

- 2020 area 14th lowest in the satellite record.

In most seas ice area is gaining - at this time of year mostly meaning the gaps are filling in
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +0.7 to -2.1 celsius over the next 5 days.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 4^th, 2020:
     14,435,822 km², a drop of -11,819 km².
     2020 is now 12^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 18 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,435,822 km2（March 4, 2020）

- Extent LOSS on this day 12 k, 10 k more than the average LOSS (of the last 10 years) of 2 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,472 k, 804 k (8.3%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,668 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 606 k more than 2017
- Extent is 433 k more than 2019
- Extent is 366 k (2.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 98.7% of extent gain for the the season done, 6 days on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.57 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.69 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from -0.4 to -2.2 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 5^th, 2020:
     14,395,557 km², a drop of -40,265 km².
     2020 is 12^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[echoughton]

Max reached, perhaps??

[PragmaticAntithesis]

Max reached, perhaps??

People speculated that two weeks ago, then we got a century gain. I don't think it's time to open the melting thread just yet! (Though Neven may disagree)

[blumenkraft]

It has taken a lot of time and energy, successes and failures to build a library of spreadsheets and data sources. So it is a bit annoying to think people have to wade through a load of clutter to reach the data.

This is a data thread. So, please please please bring data or a new way of looking at the data (when discussion is great).

If not, bugger off.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,395,557 km2（March 5, 2020）

With sea ice extent losses in the last 2 days of 52 k, now is the season for speculating on whether the maximum has been reached. However, this is the thread for data for all of 2020. In my extremely unhumble opinion, speculation on the date of maximum belongs on the 2019-290 freezing season thread.

- Extent LOSS on this day 40 k, 42 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 2 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,431 k, 761 k (7.9%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,670 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 537 k more than 2017
- Extent is 351 k more than 2019
- Extent is 324 k (2.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 98.7% of extent gain for the the season done, 5 days on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.57 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.69 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from -1.2 to -2.5 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 5 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,339,134  km2

Total Area           13,339,134    km2        468,233    km2   >   2010's average.  557,571    km2   >   2019 -72,888    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     39    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     2    k   gain  Central Seas__     21    k   gain  Other Seas___     17    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -4    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____     3    k   gain  Greenland____    -6    k   loss  Barents ______     9    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    0    k   gain CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__   -2    k   loss Central Arctic_    1    k   gain           Kara_________    14    k   gain Laptev_______    8    k   gain Chukchi______    1    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    11    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain

A gain of 89 k in the last 2 days,, 43 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 46 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 468 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 558 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by a mere 72 k

- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.

In most seas ice area is gaining - at this time of year mostly meaning the gaps are filling in
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from -1.2 to -2.5 celsius over the next 5 days. Especially cold at times in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.

[Stephan]

Kara Sea Ice area has almost recovered to its level two weeks ago, and so Laptev seems to follow it with a time-lag.

[gandul]

<snip, don't compare people who ask to stay on-topic to Stasi or Gestapo, thanks; N.>

[jdallen]

<snip>

Replied in PM.  Please don't continue this subthread.