2020 Sea ice area and extent data

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 6^th, 2020:
     14,345,802 km², a drop of -49,755 km².
     2020 is 11^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[Wherestheice]

A couple more days of drops like this and i'm calling maximum

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,345,802 km2（March 6, 2020）

Sea ice extent losses in the last 3 days of 102 k from the current maximum on 3rd March. Speculation on whether the maximum has been reached reaches fever pitch. 

Tempers are frayed! Tut, tut.

- Extent LOSS on this day 50 k, 71 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,382 k, 691 k (7.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,691 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 468 k more than 2017
- Extent is 279 k more than 2019
- Extent is 253 k (1.8%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 99.0% of extent gain for the the season done, 4 days on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Projections for 8 of the last 12 years say the maximum has been reached (14.45 million km2).

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 14.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.69 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from -1.0 to -2.5 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies in Northern Europe and most of Siberia.

Add possible storms and a really mixed picture emerges. What are people saying on the freezing season thread?

[Ktb]

Slater's Projection is up and running for those interested.

https://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

[Tom_Mazanec]

IIRC the last melting season thread started March 1.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 6 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,357,582  km2

Total Area           13,357,582    km2        470,874    km2   >   2010's average.  541,833    km2   >   2019 -52,978    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     19    k   gain  Peripheral Seas    -0    k   loss  Central Seas__     22    k   gain  Other Seas___    -3    k   loss            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     2    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____    -1    k   loss  Greenland____    -6    k   loss  Barents ______     5    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__    1    k   gain Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss           Kara_________    12    k   gain Laptev_______    9    k   gain Chukchi______    1    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    2    k   gain St Lawrence___   -7    k   loss Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain

Sea ice area gain on this day 19 k, 3 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 16 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 471 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 542 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by a mere 53 k

- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from -1.0 to -2.5 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies in Northern Europe and most of Siberia.

Add possible storms and a really mixed picture emerges.

[gerontocrat]

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Monthly update for Feb 2020 out. Quite a recovery in sea ice extent.

A positively persistent, persistently positive Arctic Oscillation
March 4, 2020

Sea ice extent for February 2020 tracked below average, ranking as the thirteenth lowest monthly average in the satellite record. A brief pause in ice growth in the middle of February was related to the regional wind pattern. As has been the case for the past several months, the Arctic Oscillation was in a persistently positive phase. This manifested as unusually low sea level pressure over the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean and high pressure over Eastern Eurasia, extending eastward into Arctic Canada.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 7^th, 2020:
     14,290,131 km², a drop of -55,671 km².
     2020 is now 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[Wherestheice]

One more day and I think we should start the melting season thread

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,290,131 km2（March 7, 2020）

Sea ice extent losses in the last 4 days of 158 k from the current maximum on 3rd March of 14.45 milion km2.

- Extent LOSS on this day 56 k, 72 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 16 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,326 k, 619 k (6.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,707 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 424 k more than 2017
- Extent is 197 k more than 2019
- Extent is 182 k (1.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 99.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 3 days on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Projections for 8 of the last 12 years say the maximum has been reached (14.45 million km2).
An oddity:
- The average date of maximum is 10th March when calculated from the simple average of the date of maximum  in each of the last 10 years.
- The average date of maximum is 16th March when calculated from the simple average of the future daily sea ice gains/losses in March of the last 10 years.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 14.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.69 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from -1.0 to -3.2 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land in Northern Europe and Western +Central Siberia.

Add possible storms and a really mixed picture emerges.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 7 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,362,233  km2

Total Area           13,362,233    km2        469,564    km2   >   2010's average.  527,086    km2   >   2019 -46,662    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     5    k   gain  Peripheral Seas    -6    k   loss  Central Seas__     26    k   gain  Other Seas___    -15    k   loss            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     6    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____    -4    k   loss  Greenland____    -3    k   loss  Barents ______    -5    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    5    k   gain Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss           Kara_________    12    k   gain Laptev_______    10    k   gain Chukchi______    1    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss St Lawrence___   -6    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss

Sea ice area gain on this day 5 k, 1 k less than the 2010's average gain of 6 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 470 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 527 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by a mere 47 k

- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from -1.0 to -3.2 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land in Northern Europe and Western +Central Siberia.

Add possible storms and a really mixed picture emerges.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 8^th, 2020:
     14,281,584 km², a drop of -8,547 km².
     2020 is 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[Fractious]

The reports of my extent are greatly exaggerated.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,281,584 km2（March 8, 2020）

Sea ice extent losses in the last 5 days of 167 k from the current maximum on 3rd March of 14.45 milion km2.

- Extent LOSS on this day 9 k, 1 k more than the average loss  on this day (of the last 10 years) of 8 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,317 k, 619 k (6.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,698 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 424 k more than 2017
- Extent is 197 k more than 2019
- Extent is 181 k (1.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 99.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 2 days on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Projections for 10 of the last 12 years say the maximum has been reached (14.45 million km2).

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 14.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.69 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -0.7 to -3.2 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land in Northern Europe and Western +Central Siberia.

By Friday a burst of warmth into the Bering/Chukchi. Add possible storms and a really mixed picture emerges.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 8 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,349,814  km2

The tables showing quite a lot of data in red especially in the peripheral seas.
A sea (ice) change starts?

Total Area           13,349,814    km2        452,952    km2   >   2010's average.  494,980    km2   >   2019 -60,210    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -12    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -9    k   loss  Central Seas__     21    k   gain  Other Seas___    -25    k   loss            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     10    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____    -8    k   loss  Greenland____    -1    k   loss  Barents ______    -11    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__    6    k   gain Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss           Kara_________    7    k   gain Laptev_______    9    k   gain Chukchi______    2    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -11    k   loss St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss

Sea ice area loss on this day 5 k, 17 k less than the 2010's average gain of 2 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 453 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 495 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by a mere 60 k

- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -0.7 to -3.2 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land in Northern Europe and Western +Central Siberia.

By Friday a burst of warmth into the Bering/Chukchi. Add possible storms and a really really mixed picture emerges.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 9^th, 2020:
     14,296,768 km², an increase of 15,184 km².
     2020 is 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[Juan C. García]

If the 2020 max happened on March 3^rd, then 2020 is the year with the 10^th lowest max.

Source: [ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[Juan C. García]

If the 2020 max happened on March 3^rd, then 2020 is the year with the 12^th earliest max (or 14^th, taking into account that 2020 is a leap year and it had 1 more day).

Source: [ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[oren]

Thank you for these tables and for your dependable updates Juan.

[gerontocrat]

The early bird (Juan) catches the data. JAXA has gone into maintenance, methinks, as it now sends you to a tweet.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,296,768 km2（March 9, 2020）

- Extent GAIN on this day 15 k, 36 k more than the average LOSS  on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,333 k, 656 k (6.8%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,698 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 526 k more than 2017
- Extent is 146 k more than 2019
- Extent is 218 k (1.5%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- 1 day on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Projections for 10 of the last 12 years say the maximum has been reached (14.45 million km2).
Also look at the plume - including last year about to start its major sea ice extent losses.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 14.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.69 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -0.1 to -2.7 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land in Northern Europe and Western +Central Siberia.

By Friday a burst of warmth into the Bering/Chukchi, into the Beaufort Sea on Saturday. Add possible storms and a really mixed picture emerges.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 9 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,321,392 km2

For a second day the tables showing quite a lot of data in red especially in the peripheral seas.
A sea (ice) change starts?

Total Area           13,321,392    km2        424,531    km2   >   2010's average.  466,559    km2   >   2019 -88,632    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -28    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -8    k   loss  Central Seas__     12    k   gain  Other Seas___    -33    k   loss            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     12    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____    -11    k   loss  Greenland____     2    k   gain  Barents ______    -11    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    0    k   gain CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__    7    k   gain Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss           Kara_________    3    k   gain Laptev_______    5    k   gain Chukchi______    2    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -15    k   loss St Lawrence___   -5    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -14    k   loss

Sea ice area loss on this day 28 k, 32 k less than the 2010's average gain of 4 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 425 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 467 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by a 89 k

- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -0.1 to -2.7 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold for the next three days  in the Bering Sea and for longer north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land in Northern Europe and Western +Central Siberia.

By Friday a burst of warmth into the Bering/Chukchi, into the Beaufort Sea on Saturday. Add possible storms and a really mixed picture emerges.

[gerontocrat]

And a look at NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Area according to JAXA format pstings. .

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA as at March 9, 2020 (5 day trailing average) : 13,321,392 km2

- AREA gain in this freezing season to date is 10,412 k, 542 k (5.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,870 k.
- AREA is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- AREA is 664 k more than 2017
- AREA is 467 k more than 2019
- AREA is 422 k (3.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- 5 days on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily AREA gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Not much indication that the maximum has been reached.
Also look at the plume .

Average remaining AREA gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 13.50 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2016 (of 12.63 million km2) by 0.87 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

Thank you for these tables and for your dependable updates Juan.

You are welcome, Oren! 
The true is that I really appreciate this Forum and other people posts (like yours...  ). So, I am glad to make a contribution to this Forum.

Thanks, Neven, for your leadership and work on the Blog and the Forum.

_____________________________

Unlucky, today ADS is sending me to Twitter. It seems that there will be not data today. I will wait an hour, to see if the problem is fixed.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[mabarnes]

Still down ... and nobody's thought "Maybe I should TWEET the Extent figure" ... argh.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 10 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,305,781 km2

For a third day the tables showing quite a lot of data in red especially in the peripheral seas, but not by so much..
A sea (ice) change starts (or does not)?

Total Area           13,305,781    km2        406,508    km2   >   2010's average.  420,620    km2   >   2019 -97,724    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -16    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -9    k   loss  Central Seas__     8    k   gain  Other Seas___    -15    k   loss            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     13    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____    -13    k   loss  Greenland____     7    k   gain  Barents ______    -17    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    5    k   gain Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss           Kara_________    0    k   gain Laptev_______    3    k   gain Chukchi______    1    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss St Lawrence___    5    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -15    k   loss

Sea ice area loss on this day 16 k, 18 k less than the 2010's average gain of 2 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 407 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 421 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 98 k

- 2020 area still 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -2.1 to +0.7 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western +Central Siberia.

Warmth spreading into the Bering/Chukchi  and the Beaufort Seas, perhaps briefly above zero as far as the Bering Strait.

[Stephan]

I took the monthly extent value for February 2020 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the extent anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average February extent is now 15.12 M km². February 2020 had an average extent of 14.69 M km², which is 0.43 M km² less than that average.
The higher than average extent gains in this month pushed the actual value well above the red long term linear trend line by 0.72 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this February should have been at 13.96 M km²).
The slope of the linear trend line has thus decreased by five digits (-0.0553 instead of -0.0558).

See attached graph.

[Juan C. García]

Google translate:

The Arctic Data Archive System (ADS) has been unable to access the website since March 11, 2020 (Wednesday) due to a server problem.

https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR/status/1237540342892613632

[Juan C. García]

VISHOP is back up.

Thank you for the post. 

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 10^th, 2020:
     14,292,368 km², a drop of -4,400 km².

March 11^th, 2020:
     14,286,701 km², a drop of -5,667 km².
     2020 is 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,286,701 km2（March 11, 2020）

- Extent loss on this day 6 k, 35 k less than the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 29 k,
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 505 k more than 2017
- Extent is  35 k more than 2019
- Extent is 177 k (1.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Just to confuse things....
- Average date of maximum based on average dates in last 10 years) 1 day ago..
- Average date of maximum based on average daily extent change in last 10 years) is in 4 days time.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Projections for 11 of the last 12 years say the maximum has been reached (14.45 million km2).
Also look at the plume.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 14.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.57 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -1.9 to +0.3 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Warmth spreading into the Bering/Chukchi  and the Beaufort Seas, perhaps briefly above zero as far as the Bering Strait.

[gerontocrat]

A look at the February Monthly Average

The (experimental) graph attached shows the deviation from the linear trend in Feb 2020 was the 2nd highest in in the satellite record.

Shows the extent of the recovery in sea ice extent that already seems to be diminishing.

[nanning]

I think it's a good graph gerontocrat.

edit: you could try to remove the lower half of the left axis and the top half of the axis on the right hand side. For clarity.

[Pmt111500]

Arctic vortex has been compact but way smaller than in 2002, one of the first years I followed the ice...

[gerontocrat]

I think it's a good graph gerontocrat.

edit: you could try to remove the lower half of the left axis and the top half of the axis on the right hand side. For clarity.

Given the package I am using (LibreOffice), that is as good as it gets if it's all on one graph.
Nothing like having to look twice to see things more clearly. (That's my excuse)

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 11 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,290,607 km2

For a fourth day the tables showing quite a lot of data in red especially in the peripheral seas, but is it enough to say the sea (ice) change has started ?

Total Area           13,290,607    km2        385,596    km2   >   2010's average.  353,815    km2   >   2019 -98,203    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -15    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -1    k   loss  Central Seas__    -3    k   loss  Other Seas___    -11    k   loss            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     12    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____    -9    k   loss  Greenland____     8    k   gain  Barents ______    -12    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss           Kara_________   -3    k   loss Laptev_______   -3    k   loss Chukchi______    1    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss St Lawrence___    11    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -14    k   loss

Sea ice area loss on this day 15 k, 21 k less than the 2010's average gain of 6 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 386 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 354 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 98 k

- 2020 area still 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -1.9 to +0.3 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Warmth spreading into the Bering, Chukchi  and Beaufort Seas, perhaps briefly above zero as far as the Bering Strait.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 12^th, 2020:
     14,266,701 km², a drop of -20,000 km².
     2020 is now 9^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,266,701 km2（March 12, 2020）

- Extent loss on this day 20 k, 44 k less than the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24 k,
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 419 k more than 2017
- Extent is  4 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 133 k (0.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Just to confuse things....
- Average date of maximum based on average dates in last 10 years) 2 days ago..
- Average date of maximum based on average daily extent change in last 10 years) is in 3 days time.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Projections for 10 of the last 12 years say the maximum has been reached (14.45 million km2).

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 14.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.57 million km2.

Must be switching to the minimum projections very sson.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -1.0 to +1.0 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Warmth spreading into the Bering/Chukchi  and the Beaufort Seas, perhaps briefly above zero as far as the Bering Strait.
_____________________________-
ps: Also attached is an extract (from 2014) of the 365 day averages showing how it has risen due to 2020 extent being greater than 2019 over much of the winter. Now extent is 4k less than 2019. Will the 2010 melt be more or less than 2019's progress to 2nd lowest? No doubt the melting season thread (when Neven opens it) will be discussing that.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 12 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,255,614  km2

For a fifth day the tables showing quite a lot of data in red , i.e. area loss on all of the 5 days since the current maximum on the 7th March of 13,362,269 km2.
Is it enough to say the sea (ice) change has started ?

Total Area           13,255,614    km2        337,841    km2   >   2010's average.  263,492    km2   >   2019 -118,390    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -35    k   loss  Peripheral Seas     4    k   gain  Central Seas__    -12    k   loss  Other Seas___    -27    k   loss            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     3    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____    -6    k   loss  Greenland____     9    k   gain  Barents ______    -1    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss           Kara_________   -4    k   loss Laptev_______   -6    k   loss Chukchi______   -0    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -28    k   loss St Lawrence___    7    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss

Sea ice area loss on this day 35 k, 49 k less than the 2010's average gain of 14 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 338 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 263 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 118 k

- 2020 area still 12th lowest in the satellite record.

Note the very large loss of sea ice area in the Okhotsk Sea.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -1.0 to +1.0 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Warmth spreading into the Bering/Chukchi  and the Beaufort Seas, perhaps briefly above zero as far as the Bering Strait.

The Arctic Ocean looking a very windy place at the moment.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 13^th, 2020:
     14,279,066 km², an increase of  12,365 km².
     2020 is 9^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,279,066 km2（March 13, 2020）

- Extent GAIN on this day 12 k, 11 k more than the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 1 k,
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 463 k more than 2017
- Extent is  54 k more than 2019
- Extent is 144 k (1.0%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Just to confuse things....
- Average date of maximum based on average dates in last 10 years) 3 days ago..
- Average date of maximum based on average daily extent change in last 10 years) is in 3 days time.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Projections for 11 of the last 12 years say the maximum has been reached (14.45 million km2).
The Plume shows how steeply extent must fall to match 2019.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 14.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.57 million km2.

Must be switching to the minimum projections very soon.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -0.3 to +1.3 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Continuous pulses of warmth spreading into the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and into the Pacific half of the Arctic Ocean perhaps briefly above zero as far as the Bering Strait.
_____________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 13 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,188,935  km2

For a sixth day the tables showing quite a lot of data in red , i.e. area loss on all of the 6 days since the current maximum on the 7th March of 13,362,269 km2.
With a 67 k sea ice area loss on this day  surely it is enough to say the sea (ice) change has started

Total Area           13,188,935    km2        248,538    km2   >   2010's average.  146,474    km2   >   2019 -168,865    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -67    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -19    k   loss  Central Seas__    -33    k   loss  Other Seas___    -15    k   loss            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -21    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____    -4    k   loss  Greenland____     8    k   gain  Barents ______    -2    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss           Kara_________   -5    k   loss Laptev_______   -8    k   loss Chukchi______   -10    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -24    k   loss St Lawrence___    11    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Sea ice area loss on this day 67 k, 90 k less than the 2010's average gain of 23 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 249 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 146 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 169 k

- 2020 area still 12th lowest in the satellite record.

Note
- the very large loss of sea ice area in the Okhotsk Sea for the 2nd day..
- both the Bering and the Chukchi lost sea ice area.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -0.3 to +1.3 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Continuous pulses of warmth spreading into the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and into the Pacific half of the Arctic Ocean perhaps briefly above zero as far as the Bering Strait.

The Arctic Ocean looking a very windy place at the moment - that must have had an effect.

[Stephan]

gerontocrat,
could you please unhide the area values of Hudson Bay? Thanks a lot! 

[gerontocrat]

Here is the NSIDC sea ice extent data analysed according to my JAXA postings....

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT (5 day trailing averager):  14,838,185 km2（March 13, 2020）

- Extent GAIN on this day 7 k, 8 k less than the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 15 k,
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 620 k more than 2017
- Extent is 212 k more than 2019
- Extent is 336 k (2.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Just to confuse things....
- Average date of maximum based on average dates in last 10 years) 2 days ago (11th March)..
- Average date of maximum based on average daily extent change in last 10 years) is in 5 days time (18th March)
- In 3 of the last 12 years remaining extent gains would produce a new maximum

We are still in the period when daily extent gains and losses are highly variable.

Projections.

Projections for 9 of the last 12 years say the maximum has been reached (14.88 million km2).

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 14.94 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2018 by 0.70 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

gerontocrat,
could you please unhide the area values of Hudson Bay? Thanks a lot! 

Sorry Stephan, but I am not understanding..

what data to unhide re Hudson Bay?.

[Rodius]

gerontocrat,
could you please unhide the area values of Hudson Bay? Thanks a lot! 

Sorry Stephan, but I am not understanding..

what data to unhide re Hudson Bay?.

The total area for Hudson is missing

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 14^th, 2020:
     14,281,147 km², a small increase of 2,081 km².
     2020 is now 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,281,147 km2（March 14, 2020）

- Extent GAIN on this day 2 k, 2 k less than the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 4 k,
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 446 k more than 2017
- Extent is  96 k more than 2019
- Extent is 142 k (1.0%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.
But in all of the last 12 years there is not enough remaining gain to produce a new maximum.
So the table has essentially closed itself down, and from tomorrow I post the projections of the minimum.

So the maximum for 2019-20 was  14,447,641 km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.57 million km2, and 10th lowest in the satellite record.
See last table attached
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of +0.1 to +1.8 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Pulses of warmth spreading into the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and into the Pacific half of the Arctic Ocean perhaps briefly above zero as far as and beyond the Bering Strait.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 14 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,114,908  km2

For a seventh day the tables showing quite a lot of data in red , i.e. area loss on all of the 6 days since the maximum on the 7th March of 13,362,269 km2.
With a 74 k sea ice area loss on this day and 67k on the previous day the melt season is surely upon us

Total Area           13,114,908    km2        153,730    km2   >   2010's average.  23,944    km2   >   2019 -228,815    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -74    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -15    k   loss  Central Seas__    -43    k   loss  Other Seas___    -16    k   loss            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -26    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____     4    k   gain  Greenland____     5    k   gain  Barents ______     2    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss CAA_________   -0    k   loss East Siberian__   -4    k   loss Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss           Kara_________   -6    k   loss Laptev_______   -11    k   loss Chukchi______   -12    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -20    k   loss St Lawrence___    4    k   gain Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Sea ice area loss on this day 74 k, 95 k less than the 2010's average gain of 21 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 154 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 24 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 228 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.

Note
- the very large loss of sea ice area in the Okhotsk Sea for the 2nd day..
- both the Bering and the Chukchi lost sea ice are.
- the Kara, Laptev & ESS all lost sea ice,
- while the Barents & Greenland seas gained area.

Strong winds perhaps more important than warmth
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of +0.1 to +1.8 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Pulses of warmth spreading into the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and into the Pacific half of the Arctic Ocean perhaps briefly above zero as far as and beyond the Bering Strait.

The Arctic Ocean a very windy place at the moment - looking likely to reinforce the losses and gains in the various seas as mentioned above for at least the next 4-5 days. It would be nice if the melting thread was looking at short and medium term outlooks for winds and warmth as well as aerosols.

[gerontocrat]

gerontocrat,
could you please unhide the area values of Hudson Bay? Thanks a lot! 

Sorry Stephan, but I am not understanding..

what data to unhide re Hudson Bay?.

The total area for Hudson is missing

Hullo Stephan,

What I can post is limited by time, 4 images per posting, and I keep to the 700 pixel width limit so all the data is visible.

All the data for the NSIDC postings comes from downloads at https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/
To find the files scroll down until you come to ...
View more detailed documentation

1.  All daily (single day and five-day trailing average) extent values in one file, updated daily (Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx)
2. Monthly sea ice average extent and area, and rankings
3. (Sea_Ice_Index_Monthly_Data_with_Statistics_G02135_v3.0.xlsx)
Sea ice extent and area organized by year (Sea_Ice_Index_Monthly_Data_by_Year_G02135_v3.0.xlsx)
4. Minimum and maximum extent values and dates for each month and year, with rankings (Sea_Ice_Index_Min_Max_Rankings_G02135_v3.0.xlsx)
5. Sea ice extent rates of change (Sea_Ice_Index_Rates_of_Change_G02135_v3.0.xlsx)
6. Daily sea ice extent, by region (Sea_Ice_Index_Regional_Daily_Data_G02135_v3.0.xlsx)
7. Monthly sea ice extent, by region (Sea_Ice_Index_Regional_Monthly_Data_G02135_v3.0.xlsx)
8. Daily sea ice extent 1981-2010 climatology (N_seaice_extent_climatology_1981-2010_v3.0.csv and S_seaice_extent_climatology_1981-2010_v3.0.csv)

I use files 1. & 6., mostly 6. as it has daily data for both area and extent for each sea. Usually updated daily at around 1.45 pm GMT.

Just click on the url and a download happens.

But just for you, here are..
- the extent and area graphs from the beginning of the freezing season to date.
  Shows why I use area graphs - the extent graph shows Hudson Bay still 100% full up.

Qu. But why Hudson Bay ? - it's been a bit ordinary.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 15^th, 2020:
     14,285,316 km², a small increase of 4,169 km².
     2020 is 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years (in order to see 2012).
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,285,316 km2（March 15, 2020）

- Extent GAIN on this day 4 k, 14 k less than the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 14 k,
- Extent LOSS from maximum on this date is 162 k, 76 k (90%) more than the 10 year average of 86 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 467 k more than 2017
- Extent is 137 k more than 2019
- Extent is 127 k (0.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

From this day the projections are of the minimum..

Average melt from today would produce a minimum of 4.42 million km2, 1.24 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of +0.3 to +1.7 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Warmth spreading into the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and into the North American half of the Arctic Ocean perhaps briefly above zero as far as and beyond the Bering Strait.

Still windy in the Arctic Ocean - drift will be a major impact.