2020 Sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 15 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,114,908  km2

A sea of red except for the Barents & Greenland Seas (and a < 1 k gain in the Kara Sea)

Total Area           13,040,385    km2        47,058    km2   >   2010's average. -82,910    km2   <   2019 -293,576    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -74    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -8    k   loss  Central Seas__    -35    k   loss  Other Seas___    -32    k   loss            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -30    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain  Greenland____     5    k   gain  Barents ______     10    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss           Kara_________    0    k   gain Laptev_______   -9    k   loss Chukchi______   -11    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -26    k   loss St Lawrence___   -6    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Sea ice area loss on this day 74 k, 84 k less than the 2010's average gain of 10 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 47 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 83 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 294 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.

Note
- the very large loss of sea ice area in the Okhotsk Sea for the 3rd day..
- both the Bering, the Chukchi ad the Beaufort Seas lost sea ice area again.
- the Laptev & ESS all lost sea ice,
- while the Barents & Greenland seas gained area.

Strong winds perhaps more important than warmth.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of +0.3 to +1.7 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Warmth spreading into the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and into the North American half of the Arctic Ocean.

Still windy in the Arctic Ocean - drift likely to be a major impact.

[Stephan]

The last days saw a slight increase in extent, and massive losses in area. Will these curves follow different directions or is a convergence ahead?

[jdallen]

The last days saw a slight increase in extent, and massive losses in area. Will these curves follow different directions or is a convergence ahead?

Convergence, once CAPIE drops sufficiently.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 16^th, 2020:
     14,270,983 km², a drop of -14,333 km².
     2020 is 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years (in order to include 2012).
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[coelho]

Wondering if we'll see short term effects (Ice decrease this summer and Ice increase next winter) as a consequence of the collapsing economies due to Corona.

<edit Neven: This is the wrong thread for such a discussion.>

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,270,983 km2（March 16, 2020）

- Extent loss on this day 14 k, 14 k less than the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 0 k,
- Extent LOSS from maximum on this date is 177 k, 91 k (106%) more than the 10 year average of 86 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 565 k more than 2017
- Extent is 178 k more than 2019
- Extent is 113 k (0.8%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

From this day the projections are of the minimum..

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.41 million km2, 1.23 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +0.3 to +2.5 celsius.
Especially cold extending from NE Greenland to West Siberia and later into Central Siberia.
Generally postive anomalies in Eastern Siberia.

Warmth in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and later into the North American half of the Arctic Ocean perhaps briefly above zero as far as and beyond the Bering Strait.

Still windy in the Arctic Ocean - drift will be a major impact.
_____________________
ps: I am no longer posting the table (JAXA-Arc3) of the comparison of extent now with previous years' as Juan's table is more comprehensive, e.g. highlighting the 4 record years of 2007, 2012, 2016 & 2019.

But here is a table of recent and future daily changes for those record years and 2020.

[Pmt111500]

In the first excerpt, you mean the resulting 2020 minimum, I guess?

[gerontocrat]

The last days saw a slight increase in extent, and massive losses in area. Will these curves follow different directions or is a convergence ahead?

Convergence, once CAPIE drops sufficiently.

Good question.

It's all down to the capability of the NSIDC satellite, which sends data from 625 km2 squares of the Arctic. The NSIDC algorthm then says if the signal says a square is more than 15% ice, that square goes into the extent figure as 100%. The area data for any square above 15% ice is updated according to the percentage estimated from the signal, (which is prone to greater error.) Newer satellites with higher resolution produce a lower difference between the two measures.

During the melting season (see first graph) the difference between Extent and Area increases from about 1.25 to 2.5 million km2 . This is because the ice pack becomes very fragmented. When freezing gets underway the pack becomes much more solid and the difference declines. 

We are in the period when this difference starts to grow. The second graph takes a closer look a March. It suggests on average a hiccup up this week, then a drop before the difference grows when the melting season gets into full swing. However, individual years can e very different.

From the two tables attached you can see that the NSIDC data for the EXTENT of the central arctic seas is still at 100% with no melt, while the AREA table shows melt has started for many of these seas.

ps: 2020 saw a recovery in sea ice extent - meaning a lot of thin and fragile ice. The stormy weather may be responsible for breaking up and fragmenting much of this ice, which shows in the area abut not the extent data

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 16 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,988,601  km2

A sea of red except for the Barents & Greenland  and Kara Seas.
This loss in the Central Seas does not show in the extent data at all - i.e. all Central Seas extent at 100% full. A good illustration of why I use AREA data for these tables - it picks up change earlier even though area data is more prone to data errors.

Total Area           12,988,601    km2        9,148    km2   >   2010's average. -124,796    km2   <   2019 -342,064    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -52    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -10    k   loss  Central Seas__    -17    k   loss  Other Seas___            -25    k   loss            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -35    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____     4    k   gain  Greenland____     12    k   gain  Barents ______     9    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss CAA_________   -3    k   loss East Siberian__   -2    k   loss Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss           Kara_________    4    k   gain Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Chukchi______   -9    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -16    k   loss St Lawrence___   -8    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Sea ice area loss on this day 52 k, 56 k less than the 2010's average gain of 4 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 9 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 125 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 342 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.

Note
- the very large loss of sea ice area in the Okhotsk Sea for the 4th day..
- both the Bering, the Chukchi ad the Beaufort Seas lost sea ice area again.
- the Laptev & ESS & Beaufort lost sea ice again,
- while the Barents & Greenland seas gained area again.

Strong winds perhaps more important than warmth.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +0.3 to +2.5 celsius.
Especially cold extending from NE Greenland to West Siberia and later into Central Siberia.
Generally positive anomalies in Eastern Siberia.

Warmth in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and later into the North American half of the Arctic Ocean perhaps briefly above zero as far as and beyond the Bering Strait.

Still windy in the Arctic Ocean - drift will still be a major impact.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 17^th, 2020:
     14,275,509 km², an increase of 4,526 km².
     2020 is 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years (in order to include 2012).
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,275,509 km2（March 17, 2020）

- Extent gain on this day 5 k, 29 k different from the average LOSS on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24 k,
- Extent LOSS from maximum on this date is 172 k, 63 k (57%) more than the 10 year average of 110 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 668 k more than 2017
- Extent is 258 k more than 2019
- Extent is 141 k (1.0%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.43 million km2, 1.25 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  +1.5 to +2.9 celsius.
The cold anomalies extend from NE Greenland to West Siberia and later into Central Siberia.
Generally postive anomalies in Eastern Siberia.

Extreme warmth in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and later into the North American half of the Arctic Ocean diminish after 3-4 days.
Still windy in the Arctic Ocean - drift should be a major impact, ice export into the Barents and Greenland Seas, wind pushing into the Ocean via the Bering Strait
_____________________

[gerontocrat]

The last days saw a slight increase in extent, and massive losses in area. Will these curves follow different directions or is a convergence ahead?

Convergence, once CAPIE drops sufficiently.

Thought I would find out what CAPIE is, and lo & behold, below is an extract from a post by Neven from August 2012 - https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/new-capie-record.html

CAPIE stands for Cryosphere-today Area Per IJIS Extent, and it tells us something about the compactness (official scientific term) of the ice. It all revolves around the different definitions for sea ice area and sea ice extent, which are two ways of calculating the total ice cover. The NSIDC explains it well:

Area and extent are different measures and give scientists slightly different information. Some organizations, including Cryosphere Today, report ice area; NSIDC primarily reports ice extent. Extent is always a larger number than area, and there are pros and cons associated with each method.

A simplified way to think of extent versus area is to imagine a slice of swiss cheese. Extent would be a measure of the edges of the slice of cheese and all of the space inside it. Area would be the measure of where there is cheese only, not including the holes. That is why if you compare extent and area in the same time period, extent is always bigger. A more precise explanation of extent versus area gets more complicated.

Extent defines a region as “ice-covered” or “not ice-covered.” For each satellite data cell, the cell is said to either have ice or to have no ice, based on a threshold. The most common threshold (and the one NSIDC uses) is 15 percent, meaning that if the data cell has greater than 15 percent ice concentration, the cell is considered ice covered; less than that and it is said to be ice free. Example: Let’s say you have three 25 kilometer (km) x 25 km (16 miles x 16 miles) grid cells covered by 16% ice, 2% ice, and 90% ice. Two of the three cells would be considered “ice covered,” or 100% ice. Multiply the grid cell area by 100% sea ice and you would get a total extent of 1,250 square km (482 square miles).

Area takes the percentages of sea ice within data cells and adds them up to report how much of the Arctic is covered by ice; area typically uses a threshold of 15%. So in the same example, with three 25 km x 25 km (16 miles x 16 miles) grid cells of 16% ice, 2% ice, and 90% ice, multiply the grid cell areas that are over the 15% threshold by the percent of sea ice in those grid cells, and add it up. You would have a total area of 662 square km (255.8 square miles).

If we divide area by extent, we get an idea about how spread out the ice pack is or not (which is determined by wind patterns). When the ice pack is compact, for instance during winter, all the 'holes in the cheese' freeze over, and so the area and extent numbers come very close, and CAPIE oscillates around the 95% mark.

At the start of the melting season melt ponds fool satellite sensors into thinking that there is open water where there is none (which get calculated for area, but not for extent). This makes CAPIE go down. As the melting season progresses, melt ponds become less and less of an influence because they drain, or the ice floes they are on break up.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 17 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,967,354  km2

On this day the rate of ice area loss much less, and the average daily change switches to losses.

Total Area           12,967,354    km2       -2,120    km2   <   2010's average. -113,783    km2   <   2019 -366,291    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -21    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -17    k   loss  Central Seas___    -9    k   loss  Other Seas____     5    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -28    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____     5    k   gain  Greenland____    -0    k   loss  Barents ______     6    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss           Kara_________    4    k   gain Laptev_______    3    k   gain Chukchi______   -9    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    5    k   gain St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Sea ice area loss on this day 21 k, 11k more than the 2010's average loss of 10 k.

- 2020 Area less than the 2010's average by 2 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 114 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 366 k

- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.

Note
- both the Bering, the Chukchi and the Beaufort Seas lost sea ice area again.
- the Laptev & ESS & Beaufort lost sea ice again,
- while the Barents Sea but not the Greenland sea gained area again.

Strong winds continue to be perhaps more important than warmth.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  +1.5 to +2.9 celsius.
The cold anomalies extend from NE Greenland to West Siberia and later into Central Siberia.
Generally positive anomalies in Eastern Siberia.

Extreme warmth in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and later into the North American half of the Arctic Ocean diminish after 3-4 days.
Still windy in the Arctic Ocean - drift should be a major impact, ice export into the Barents and Greenland Seas, wind pushing into the Ocean via the Bering Strait

[jdallen]

The last days saw a slight increase in extent, and massive losses in area. Will these curves follow different directions or is a convergence ahead?

Convergence, once CAPIE drops sufficiently.

Thought I would find out what CAPIE is, and lo & behold, below is an extract from a post by Neven from August 2012 - https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/new-capie-record.html

CAPIE stands for Cryosphere-today Area Per IJIS Extent, and it tells us something about the compactness (official scientific term) of the ice. It all revolves around the different definitions for sea ice area and sea ice extent,...
<snippage>

Sorry, I should have made the reference clearer.

That said, my point was, that as that ratio drops, it will indicate the ice reaching a threshold of concentration where extent drops will start catching up with area, as concentration drops below the 10% or 30% threshold used to define what constitutes "extent", which itself varies by information provider.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 18^th, 2020:
     14,209,562 km², a drop of -65,947 km².
     2020 is 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years (in order to include 2012).
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,209,562 km2（March 18, 2020）

- Extent loss on this day 66 k, 51 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 15 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 238 k, 113 k (90%) more than the 10 year average of 125 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 653 k more than 2017
- Extent is 204 k more than 2019
- Extent is 91 k (0.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.38 million km2, 1.20 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  +1.8 to +3.0 celsius.
The cold anomalies extend from NE Greenland to West Siberia and later into Central Siberia.
Generally positive anomalies in Eastern Siberia, & signs of warmth in the Barents after 3-4 days.

Extreme warmth in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and later into the North American half of the Arctic Ocean diminish after 3-4 days.
Still windy in the Arctic Ocean - drift should be a major impact, ice export into the Barents and Greenland Seas, wind pushing into the Ocean via the Bering Strait.
_____________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 18 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,964,670   km2

On this day the rate of ice area loss reduced to almost nothing, suggesting a new pattern of wind and warmth in the Arctic

Total Area           12,964,670    km2        14,735    km2   >   2010's average. -69,973    km2   <   2019 -373,226    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -3    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -12    k   loss  Central Seas___     7    k   gain  Other Seas____     2    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -15    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____    -1    k   loss  Greenland____    -1    k   loss  Barents ______     5    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__    0    k   gain Central Arctic_    3    k   gain           Kara_________    5    k   gain Laptev_______    4    k   gain Chukchi______   -2    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    10    k   gain St Lawrence___   -9    k   loss Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Sea ice area loss on this day 3 k, 17k less than the 2010's average loss of 20 k.

- 2020 Area less than the 2010's average by 15 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 70 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 373 k

- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  +1.8 to +3.0 celsius.
The cold anomalies extend from NE Greenland to West Siberia and later into Central Siberia.
Generally positive anomalies in Eastern Siberia, & signs of warmth in the Barents after 3-4 days.

Extreme warmth in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and later into the North American half of the Arctic Ocean diminish after 3-4 days.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 19^th, 2020:
     14,178,358 km², a drop of -31,204 km².
     2020 is 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years (in order to include 2012).
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,178,358 km2（March 19, 2020）

- Extent loss on this day 31 k, 10 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 269 k, 123 k (84%) more than the 10 year average of 146 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 618 k more than 2017
- Extent is 181 k more than 2019
- Extent is 81 k (0.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.37 million km2, 1.19 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  +2.1 to +3.2 celsius.
Generally positive anomalies in Eastern Siberia, & signs of warmth in the Atlantic Front after 1-2 days.

Extreme warmth in the North American half of the Arctic Ocean diminish after 2-3 days.
Still windy in the Arctic Ocean for 2 more days then quieter - drift should be a major impact for these 2 days, ice export into the Barents and Greenland Seas, on the Pacific side wind pushing into the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait.
_____________________

[gerontocrat]

as at 14:20 GMT no data update from NSIDC  / Colorado.

Maintenance or lockdown?

I'll try again later.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 19 March 2020 (5 day trailing average)

The data arrived, I forgot to check, it's late, so graph & tables only.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 20^th, 2020:
     14,135,924 km², a drop of -42,434 km².
     2020 is 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years (in order to include 2012).
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,135,924 km2（March 20, 2020）

- Extent loss on this day 42 k, 26 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 16 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 312 k, 150 k (92%) more than the 10 year average of 162 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 577 k more than 2017
- Extent is 119 k more than 2019
- Extent is   54 k (0.4%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.35 million km2, 1.17 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  decrease from +3.5 to +1.4 celsius.

A new pattern emerges by day with strong+ve temp anomalies on the Pacific Side in Eastern Siberia, Bering/Chukchi and Western Alaska, and in the Atlantic Front in the Barents/Kara, and cool in the central Arctic Ocean.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 20 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,961,360   km2

After a 4 k rise the day before, on this day a 7k drop, maybe suggesting a new pattern of wind and warmth in the Arctic is being established

Total Area           12,961,360    km2        49,871    km2   >   2010's average.  27,874    km2   >   2019 -362,798    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -7    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -31    k   loss  Central Seas___     11    k   gain  Other Seas____     13    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -20    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____    -13    k   loss  Greenland____    -1    k   loss  Barents ______     4    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_    1    k   gain           Kara_________    5    k   gain Laptev_______    7    k   gain Chukchi______    1    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    10    k   gain St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain

Sea ice area loss on this day 7 k, 11 k less than the 2010's average loss of 18 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 50 k.
- 2020 Area is more than 2019 by 28 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 363 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  decrease from +3.5 to +1.4 celsius.

A new pattern emerges by day 4 with strong+ve temp anomalies on the Pacific Side in Eastern Siberia, Bering/Chukchi and Western Alaska, and on the Atlantic Front in the Barents/Kara Seas, and cool in the central Arctic Ocean. Baffin Bay also getting warmer.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 20 March 2020

The Bering Sea sea ice area after a spectacular rise showing what could turn out to be a spectacular fall.

The Chukchi Sea  sea ice area showing a fall but not yet significant.

[echoughton]

The Bering looks like the Dow...

[Juan C. García]

The Bering looks like the Dow...

             

[It seemed funny when I first read it]

[gandul]

The Bering looks like the Dow...

             

[It seemed funny when I first read it]

I tell you for once both curves March-December may look similar. The Bering may recover first afterwards.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 21^st, 2020:
     14,064,688 km², a drop of -71,236 km².
     2020 is 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[Stephan]

Thanks to you, Juan, for keeping us up-to-date day by day.
I checked the JAXA website and found that yesterday was the first day since Jan 13, where the daily value was below 2010s average.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,064,688 km2（March 21, 2020）

- Extent loss on this day 71 k, 58 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 13 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 383 k, 208 k (119%) more than the 10 year average of 175 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 524 k more than 2017
- Extent is     8 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is     4 k (0.0%) LESS than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.29 million km2, 1.11 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

It is from now that 2019 started its impressive sea ice losses. Will 2020 follow?
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  decrease from +3.0 to +1.8 celsius.

A new pattern emerges  with strong+ve temp anomalies on the Pacific Side in Eastern Siberia, Bering/Chukchi and Western Alaska, and in the Atlantic Front in the Barents/Kara, and cool in the central Arctic Ocean.

For at least the next 5 days strong winds from the Atlantic with above freezing temperatures head up the Norwegian Sea as far as Novaya Zemla. (Nullschool well worth a look).

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 21 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,923,685   km2

Total Area           12,923,685    km2        28,324    km2   >   2010's average.  25,897    km2   >   2019 -389,282    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -38    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -25    k   loss  Central Seas___     1    k   gain  Other Seas____    -14    k   loss            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -18    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____    -1    k   loss  Greenland____    -7    k   loss  Barents ______     1    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss           Kara_________    3    k   gain Laptev_______    1    k   gain Chukchi______    2    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -11    k   loss St Lawrence___   -7    k   loss Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain

Sea ice area loss on this day 38 k, 22 k more than the 2010's average loss of 16 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 28 k.
- 2020 Area is more than 2019 by 26 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 389 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  decrease from +3.0 to +1.8 celsius.

A new pattern emerges  with strong+ve temp anomalies on the Pacific Side in Eastern Siberia, Bering/Chukchi and Western Alaska, and in the Atlantic Front in the Barents/Kara, and cool in the central Arctic Ocean.

For at least the next 5 days strong winds from the Atlantic with above freezing temperatures head up the Norwegian Sea as far as Novaya Zemla. (Nullschool well worth a look).

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 22^nd, 2020:
     14,006,955 km², a drop of -57,733 km².
     2020 is 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,006,955 km2（March 22, 2020）

- Extent loss on this day 58 k, 38 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 20 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 441 k, 246 k (126%) more than the 10 year average of 195 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 126 k more than 2007
- Extent is 574 k less   than 2012
- Extent is  81 k more than 2016
- Extent is    6 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is   42 k (0.3%) LESS than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.25 million km2, 1.07 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

It is from now that 2019 started its impressive sea ice losses. Will 2020 follow?
Note how at this time 2012 extent was still very high.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  decrease from +3.0 to +0.3 celsius.

[gerontocrat]

Better late than never ?

NSIDC Total Area as at 22 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,866,179 km2

Total Area           12,866,179    km2       -22,528    km2   <   2010's average. -10,717    km2   <   2019 -426,893    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -57    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -17    k   loss  Central Seas___     1    k   gain  Other Seas____    -42    k   loss            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -17    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____    -10    k   loss  Greenland____     6    k   gain  Barents ______     4    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__   -5    k   loss Central Arctic_    0    k   gain           Kara_________    6    k   gain Laptev_______   -2    k   loss Chukchi______    3    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -23    k   loss St Lawrence___   -16    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Sea ice area loss on this day 57 k, 50 k more than the 2010's average loss of 7 k.

- 2020 Area more less than the 2010's average by 23 k.
- 2020 Area is more less than 2019 by 11 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 427 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  decrease from +3.0 to +0.3 celsius.

Strong +ve temp anomalies on the Pacific Side in Eastern Siberia, Bering/Chukchi and Western Alaska, and in the Atlantic Front in the Barents/Kara, and cool in the central Arctic Ocean.

For at least the next 4 days strong winds from the Atlantic with above freezing temperatures head up the Norwegian Sea as far as Novaya Zemla. (Nullschool well worth a look). (maybe / perhaps after that the southerly winds closer to the Greenland coast & Svalbard, with Arctic winds exporting the cold to the UK).

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 23^rd, 2020:
     13,944,190 km², a drop of -62,765 km².
     2020 is 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 13,944,190 km2（March 23, 2020）

- Extent loss on this day 63 k, 32 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 31 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 503 k, 278 k (123%) more than the 10 year average of 226 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  68 k more than 2007
- Extent is 626 k less   than 2012
- Extent is   44 k more than 2016
- Extent is   33 k more than 2019
- Extent is   74 k (0.5%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done., and 175 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.22 million km2, 1.04 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

It is from now that 2019 started its impressive sea ice losses. Will 2020 follow?
Note how at this time 2012 extent was still very high.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +3.1 & +0.5 celsius.

[gerontocrat]

Better earlier than late ?

NSIDC Total Area as at 23 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,802,385 km2

Total Area           12,802,385    km2       -80,214    km2   <   2010's average. -44,076    km2   <   2019 -468,934    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -64    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -20    k   loss  Central Seas___     2    k   gain  Other Seas____    -45    k   loss            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -17    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____    -7    k   loss  Greenland____     4    k   gain  Barents ______    -1    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_    1    k   gain           Kara_________    3    k   gain Laptev_______   -0    k   loss Chukchi______    2    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -31    k   loss St Lawrence___   -13    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Sea ice area loss on this day 64 k, 50 k more than the 2010's average loss of 6 k.

Most of the sea ice area losses in the Bering, Okhotsk and St. Lawrence Seas

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 80 k.
- 2020 Area  less than 2019 by 44 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 469 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th[/s] 8th lowest in the satellite record.


________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +3.1 & +0.5 celsius.

Winds variable in strength and direction.

[Stephan]

So it is Okhotsk, Bering, St Lawrence and (to a smaller extent) Baffin that delivered the largest part of area losses in the last days. St Lawrence can go on in this pace only for a few further days because it doesn't have too much ice left. CAB Seas, Barents and Grønland Sea seem quite stable at the moment.

[Tammukka]

According nsidc daily Sea extent has dropped from maximum record amount 684 000km^2. I mean its record that at date 23.3 or ealier extent has dropped such amount. Thin ice breaks/melts faster.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 24^th, 2020:
     13,824,816 km², the 1^st century drop of the melting season: -119,374 km².
     2020 changed from 10^th to 4^th lowest on record. 
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 24^th, 2020:
     Graph with today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted 3 years with September lowest min (2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[Lewis]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 24^th, 2020:
     13,824,816 km², the 1^st century drop of the melting season: -119,374 km².
     2020 changed from 10^th to 4^th lowest on record. 
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

I have a feeling we will be hitting new records this year, dropping 6 slots in a day wow.

[pauldry600]

I'm not surprised. The ice that has formed is relatively weak in many areas

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,824,816 km2（March 24, 2020）

- On this day sea ice extent is at last below the record low maximum of 13.88 million km2 on 6th March 2017. Note also that the 2017 minimum was nothing special at 4.47 million km2. (Compare this with max & min 2012)
- Moving from 10th to 4th lowest is a result of not just the very high daily loss on this day, but also shows that at and around maximum the values for many years are tightly clustered in a narrow range.
- An extent loss of 119k is a rarity at this time of year, only 5 instances of a greater daily extent loss in the whole of march in all the years from 2002 to the present. 

- Extent loss on this day 119 k, 97 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 22 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 623 k, 375 k (151%) more than the 10 year average of 248 k.
- Extent is 10th 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  24 k less than 2007
- Extent is 687 k less   than 2012
- Extent is   37 k less than 2016
- Extent is   15 k less than 2019
- Extent is  171 k (1.2%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done., and 174 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.12 million km2, 0.94 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

It is from now that 2019 started its impressive sea ice losses. Will 2020 continue to follow?
Note how at this time 2012 extent was still very very high.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +2.9 & +0.8 celsius.
____________________________________
ps: If 2020 overall extent losses continue to exceed those of 2019 just a chance of the 365 day trailing average having another go at below the record minimum set on 1st? April 2017.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 24 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,731,597  km2

This day's large area loss entirely in the peripheral seas apart from a small area loss in the Kara Sea.

Total Area           12,731,597    km2       -145,071    km2   <   2010's average. -63,577    km2   <   2019 -525,041    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change    -71    k   loss  Peripheral Seas    -34    k   loss  Central Seas___     7    k   gain  Other Seas____    -44    k   loss            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______    -15    k   loss  Baffin  Bay____    -3    k   loss  Greenland____    -5    k   loss  Barents ______    -12    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    2    k   gain CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__    0    k   gain Central Arctic_    2    k   gain           Kara_________   -1    k   loss Laptev_______    2    k   gain Chukchi______    2    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -34    k   loss St Lawrence___   -8    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Sea ice area loss on this day 71 k, 65 k more than the 2010's average loss of 6 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 145 k.
- 2020 Area  less than 2019 by 64 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 525 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th 8th[/s] 7th lowest in the satellite record.


________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +3.1 & +0.5 celsius.

Winds variable in strength and direction. See the new wavy jetstream thread

[gerontocrat]

And just a reminder about why I use NSIDC Area data, not extent.

[Stephan]

And just a reminder about why I use NSIDC Area data, not extent.

...which means to me that every single grid cell in all of the seas is covered by at least 15% of ice.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Sea Ice Area - 3 seas leading the downward charge (for the moment?)

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 25^th, 2020:
     13,682,550 km², the 2^nd century drop of the melting season: -142,266 km².
     2020 is 4^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent