Semimonthly BOE evaluation.
The max was reached on March 3rd. Extent was 14,447,631 km2. As of March 31st, extent is 13,599,874 km2. With on average 166 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -75,903 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).
We had a 10 day stretch in early March with many small gains and small losses, the result was extent dropped by only -14,622 km2 during that period. Thus greatly hampering the massive impact on averages that our two century drops had.
Total extent loss so far this season is -847,767 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -30,277 km2. This is the 3rd highest average daily loss from maximum to March 31st (2007-2020), behind 2014 (Minimum on March 20th) and 2019 (Minimum on March 12). (See Attachment 2).
Although it is worth noting that the total extent loss from maximum is 2nd highest on record behind only 2019. 2019 lost ~50,000 km2 more in 9 fewer days. Wow. (See Attachment 3).
Keep in mind that there are a wide range of minimums since 2007, ranging from Feb 24th to March 31st.