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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #450 on: April 06, 2020, 09:50:08 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 13,388,020 km2(April 5, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 71 k, 30 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,060 k, 540 k (104%) more than the 10 year average of 519 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  327 k MORE than 2019

On average 5.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 162 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.96 million km2, 0.78 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #451 on: April 06, 2020, 01:36:39 PM »
I took the monthly extent value for March 2020 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the extent anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average (1979-2020) March extent is now 15.27 M km². March 2020 had an average extent of 14.78 M km², which is 0.49 M km² less than that long-term average.
The higher than average extent gains in February and the more or less parallel to normal development in March kept the actual value well above the red long-term linear trend line by 0.70 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this March should have been at 14.08 M km²).
The slope of the long-term linear trend line has thus further decreased by two digits (-0.0551 instead of -0.0553).

See attached graph.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #452 on: April 06, 2020, 06:16:25 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 05-Apr-2020(  (5 day trailing average) 12,354,423 KM2)         
         
Total Area         
 12,354,423    km2      
-403,930    km2   <   2010's average.
 226,736    km2   >   2019
-734,561    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -43    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -40    k   loss
 Central Seas___    -3    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -7    k   loss
 Bering _______    -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -18    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
 Greenland____    -1    k   loss
 Barents ______     6    k   gain
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    7    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 43 k, 18 k more than the 2010's average loss of 25 k.         

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 404 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 227 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 735 k
- 2020 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Ang again even more ice sent into the Barents.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #453 on: April 07, 2020, 05:44:50 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 6th, 2020:
     13,342,605 km2, a drop of -45,415 km2.
     2020 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #454 on: April 07, 2020, 07:54:59 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,342,605 km2(April 6, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 45 k, 9 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 36 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,05 k, 550 k (99%) more than the 10 year average of 555 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  330 k MORE than 2019

On average 5.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 161 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.95 million km2, 0.77 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #455 on: April 07, 2020, 04:03:12 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 06-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,322,453 KM2)         
         
Total Area         
 12,322,453    km2      
-411,051    km2   <   2010's average.
 244,288    km2   >   2019
-746,601    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -32    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -31    k   loss
 Central Seas___    -0    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
 Bering _______    -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -10    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -19    k   loss
St Lawrence__   -0    k   loss
 Greenland____     4    k   gain
 Barents ______     4    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 32 k, 7 k more than the 2010's average loss of -25 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -411 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -747 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 244 k more than 2019          
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #456 on: April 07, 2020, 05:45:23 PM »
Baffin Bay continues to lose an impressive amount of sea ice area.

Volume also declines in March.
Sea Ice thickness appears to increase in March,

i.e. the thin stuff is going first.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #457 on: April 07, 2020, 08:45:40 PM »
Is there any explanation why Baffin Sea Ice is so much thicker in average this year and 2019 in comparison with the 2000s or 2010s?
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

anaphylaxia

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #458 on: April 07, 2020, 09:35:17 PM »
I think it has to do with the persistant Nares outflow, prime 5m thick ice is coming from North of Greenland

be cause

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #459 on: April 08, 2020, 12:38:32 AM »
only Nares has been closed for months ... b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

oren

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #460 on: April 08, 2020, 02:07:39 AM »
Is there any explanation why Baffin Sea Ice is so much thicker in average this year and 2019 in comparison with the 2000s or 2010s?
In principle: Very thin ice gone away, so only normal ice remains. But in reality, I think there is some persistent problem with Baffin Bay volume numbers.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #461 on: April 08, 2020, 05:47:10 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 7th, 2020:
     13,371,025 km2, an increase of 28,420 km2.
     2020 is now 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. I am surprised to see 1989 on the list. It is going to be there several days this month.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #462 on: April 08, 2020, 09:27:57 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,371,025 km2(April 7, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 28 k, 57 k different from the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 29 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,077 k, 492 k (84%) more than the 10 year average of 584 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  398 k MORE than 2019

On average 5.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 160 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.00 million km2, 0.82 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #463 on: April 08, 2020, 04:36:46 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 07-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,305,666 KM2)         
         
Total Area         
 12,305,666    km2      
-403,340    km2   <   2010's average.
 268,341    km2   >   2019
-735,213    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -17    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -22    k   loss
 Central Seas___     6    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
 Bering _______     0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -22    k   loss
St Lawrence__   -1    k   loss
 Greenland____     1    k   gain
 Barents ______     9    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    7    k   gain
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________    3    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 17 k, -7 k less than the 2010's average loss of -24 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -403 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -735 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 268 k more than 2019          
_________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #464 on: April 08, 2020, 04:46:56 PM »
NSIDC Area Graphs.

Attached are the graphs for...
- Total Area
- the 7 High Arctic Seas Area,
- the 7 Peripheral Seas Area.
As one can see in the High Arctic melt has not started.

Also attached is Baffin Bay Sea Ice Area - now 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and currently the Poster Child for the 2020 melt season.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #465 on: April 09, 2020, 05:50:14 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 8th, 2020:
     13,300,719 km2, a drop of -70,306 km2.
     2020 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #466 on: April 09, 2020, 09:22:53 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,300,719 km2(April 8, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 70 k, 46 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,147 k, 538 k (88%) more than the 10 year average of 609 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  311 k MORE than 2019

On average 6.1% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 160 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.96 million km2, 0.78 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #467 on: April 09, 2020, 04:00:11 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 08-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,288,996 KM2)         
         
Total Area         
 12,288,996    km2      
-398,106    km2   <   2010's average.
 263,656    km2   >   2019
-718,488    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -17    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -29    k   loss
 Central Seas___     12    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
 Bering _______     4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -17    k   loss
St Lawrence__   -3    k   loss
 Greenland____    -3    k   loss
 Barents ______    -5    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________    8    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 17 k, -5 k less than the 2010's average loss of -22 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -398 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -718 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 264 k more than 2019          
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #468 on: April 10, 2020, 05:44:35 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 9th, 2020:
     13,248,209 km2, a drop of -52,510 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #469 on: April 10, 2020, 09:45:21 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,248,209 km2(April 9, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 53 k, 27 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,199 k, 565 k (89%) more than the 10 year average of 635 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  242 k MORE than 2019

On average 6.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 158 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.93 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #470 on: April 10, 2020, 03:16:17 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 09-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,281,465 KM2)         
         
Total Area         
 12,281,465    km2      
-384,464    km2   <   2010's average.
 259,720    km2   >   2019
-689,789    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -8    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -18    k   loss
 Central Seas___     10    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -8    k   loss
 Bering _______     7    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -9    k   loss
St Lawrence__   -1    k   loss
 Greenland____     0    k   gain
 Barents ______    -8    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________    5    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 8 k, -13 k less than the 2010's average loss of -21 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -384 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -690 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 260 k more than 2019          
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #471 on: April 11, 2020, 05:49:26 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 10th, 2020:
     13,198,416 km2, a drop of -49,793 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #472 on: April 11, 2020, 06:50:26 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,198,416 km2(April 10, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 50 k, 31 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 19 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,249 k, 595 k (91%) more than the 10 year average of 654 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  184 k MORE than 2019

On average 6.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 157 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.90 million km2, 0.72 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

Once again the average remaining melt is distorted by the melt in 2012 from a high maximum to a record low minimum. This can be seen by average remaining melt in the last 5 years being 300k less than the 10 year average, which would end with a minimum of 4.20 million km2.

Of note is the extent loss to date is only surpassed (just) by last year (2019) at least since 2007.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #473 on: April 11, 2020, 01:05:11 PM »
From NSIDC Data - The 7 Peripheral & 7 High Arctic Seas - Sea Ice AREA

The separation of the Arctic Seas into these two groups is starting to look interesting (I hope).

I attach two sets of graphs -

The first two look at the March monthly averages and deviations from trend from 1979 to 2020.

In the Peripheral seas there is a linear trend of just over 30 k  km2 area loss per year.
In the High Arctic seas there is a linear trend of 94 km2 (yes, a tiny 94 km2)area gain per year.

The next two graphs look at area from March to October from 1979 to 2020.

The peripheral Seas have lost a lot of ice at maximum and very little at minimum.
The High Arctic is opposite - ice area at maximum is unchanged, while ice area at minimum is greatly reduced..

If the High Arctic follows the curve shown in the peripheral graph, the High Arctic losses at minimum would continue on a broadly linear trend until most summer ice is gone, and then may well do an extended Gompertz tail.

As time goes by while in Purdah perhaps other stuff will emerge.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2020, 01:15:46 PM by gerontocrat »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #474 on: April 11, 2020, 04:20:33 PM »
It's posts like this, Gerontocrat, that warrant all the "Likes"!  Very interesting indeed!

It's almost intuitive (or "It's intuitive, once you look at the graphs!"):  the margins 'always' (mostly) melt out and are freezing less and less as the Earth's surface warms; the core still always freezes up and used to only thaw a little around the edges, but now melts more, as the Earth's surface warms.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #475 on: April 12, 2020, 05:57:01 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 11th, 2020:
     13,153,514 km2, a drop of -44,902 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

PS: 2016 (2nd lowest) had an increase of 50K km2 on April 12th, so 2020 is already 15K km2 lower than that. If there is a drop or an increase of less than 15K km2, 2020 will become 2nd lowest tomorrow.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #476 on: April 12, 2020, 08:17:04 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,153,514 km2(April 11, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 45 k, 17 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 28 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,294 k, 612 k (90%) more than the 10 year average of 682 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  164 k MORE than 2019

On average 6.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 156 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.88 million km2, 0.70 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

Once again the average remaining melt is distorted by the melt in 2012 from a high maximum to a record low minimum. This can be seen by average remaining melt in the last 5 years being 300k less than the 10 year average, which would end with a minimum of 4.18 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #477 on: April 12, 2020, 12:33:51 PM »
JAXA Data here are some graphs with the cobwebs dusted off.

Extent Plume of forward projections from last 10 years daily change...
I have extended this to 1st October, expecting the plume to widen like a trumpet- it hasn't, except for 2012.
If anyone needs any more evidence that 2012 was a bit unusual, this is it.

365 Day Average will continue to increase as long as 2020 extent is greater than 2019
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #478 on: April 13, 2020, 05:41:24 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 12th, 2020:
     13,106,131 km2, a drop of -47,383 km2.
     2020 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jdallen

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #479 on: April 13, 2020, 09:20:03 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 12th, 2020:
     13,106,131 km2, a drop of -47,383 km2.
     2020 is now 2nd lowest on record.
Sometime in the next week to 10 days or so, I think 2016,2019 & 2020 are going to start a spiral dance around one another, trading positions 1,2 & 3 back and forth possibly well into late spring.
This space for Rent.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #480 on: April 13, 2020, 12:58:42 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,106,131 km2(April 12, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 47 k, 18 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 29 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,342 k, 630 k (89%) more than the 10 year average of 711 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  161 k MORE than 2019

On average 7.1% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 155 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.87 million km2, 0.69 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #481 on: April 13, 2020, 03:36:33 PM »
NSIDC returns from Easter break?

NSIDC Total Area as at 12-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,236,061 KM2)         
         
Total Area         
 12,236,061    km2      
-355,470    km2   <   2010's average.
 180,382    km2   >   2019
-610,552    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -20    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -19    k   loss
 Central Seas___    -1    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -11    k   loss
 Bering _______    -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain
St Lawrence__   -1    k   loss
 Greenland____     4    k   gain
 Barents ______    -10    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 20 k, -8 k less than the 2010's average loss of -28 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -355 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -611 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 180 k more than 2019          
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #482 on: April 14, 2020, 05:41:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 13th, 2020:
     13,096,906 km2, a drop of -9,225 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #483 on: April 14, 2020, 08:21:36 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:   13,096,906 km2(April 13, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 9 k, 14 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,351 k, 616 k (84%) more than the 10 year average of 734 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  164 k MORE than 2019

On average 7.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 154 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.88 million km2, 0.70 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #484 on: April 14, 2020, 03:40:39 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,228,544 KM2)         
         
Total Area         
 12,228,544    km2      
-330,708    km2   <   2010's average.
 176,719    km2   >   2019
-577,897    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -8    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -11    k   loss
 Central Seas___     4    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -12    k   loss
 Bering _______    -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     1    k   gain
St Lawrence__    1    k   gain
 Greenland____     6    k   gain
 Barents ______     5    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 8 k, -24 k less than the 2010's average loss of -32 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -331 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -578 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 177 k more than 2019          
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #485 on: April 15, 2020, 02:56:29 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR/status/1250035644119658498
April 14th, 2020:
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #486 on: April 15, 2020, 04:00:26 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,226,174 KM2)

Looks like area loss has stalled - another change in warmth + winds underway?         
         
Total Area         
 12,226,174    km2      
-304,802    km2   <   2010's average.
 189,547    km2   >   2019
-540,999    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -2    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -16    k   loss
Central Seas___    14    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -14    k   loss
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________    2    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 2 k, 26 k less than the 2010's average loss of 28 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -305 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -541 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 190 k more than 2019          
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #487 on: April 16, 2020, 06:03:16 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 14th, 2020:
     13,091,552 km2, a drop of -5,354 km2.

April 15th, 2020:
     13,060,075 km2, a drop of -31,477 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 23 lowest years (in order to include 2012).  ;)
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. Today's difference [2012] - [2019] =  1,228,988 km2.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #488 on: April 16, 2020, 12:06:34 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,060,075 km2(April 15, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 31 k, 10 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,388 k, 579 k (72%) more than the 10 year average of 809 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  239 k MORE than 2019

On average 8.1% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 152 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.92 million km2, 0.74 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #489 on: April 16, 2020, 03:21:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,212,009 KM2)         
         
Total Area         
 12,212,009    km2      
-290,158    km2   <   2010's average.
 192,290    km2   >   2019
-514,580    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -14    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -34    k   loss
Central Seas___    20    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -14    k   loss
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Kara_________    3    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 14 k, 15 k less than the 2010's average loss of 29 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -290 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -515 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 192 k more than 2019          

Interesting contrast between the peripheral and the central seas over the last 2 weeks, the periphery losing ice area, the centre gaining ice area.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #490 on: April 16, 2020, 04:03:49 PM »
Sea Ice Area in the Barents & Greenland Seas at or above the 2000's average. When will that warmth advertised in he melting thread materialise?

Sea Ice Area in the Okhotsk and the Bering Seas low and getting lower.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #491 on: April 17, 2020, 05:55:28 AM »
April 16th, 2020:
     13,001,987 km2, a drop of -58,088 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years (in order to include 2012).  ;)
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. Today's difference [2012] - [2019] = 1,270,392 km2.
      And more that 1M km2 (2012 versus 2020). What a fall 2012 had!!!  ::)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Phoenix

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #492 on: April 17, 2020, 07:04:57 AM »
Random thank you to Gerontocrat and Juan for the community service here. Your updates are a very important pillar of the community.

The last 5 years being the lowest 5 in terms of extent at this point in the calendar truly reflect the chronic progression of AGW.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #493 on: April 17, 2020, 11:06:15 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,001,987 km2(April 16, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 58 k, 23 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 35 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,446 k, 602 k (71%) more than the 10 year average of 844 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  206 k MORE than 2019

On average 8.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 151 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.89 million km2, 0.71 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2020, 07:06:21 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #494 on: April 17, 2020, 10:16:44 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 16-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,185,787 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,185,787    km2      
-284,657    km2   <   2010's average.
 197,071    km2   >   2019
-502,405    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -26    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -40    k   loss
Central Seas___    13    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
Bering _______   -10    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -11    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    10    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 26 k, 6 k less than the 2010's average loss of 32 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -285 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -502 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 197 k more than 2019          
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #495 on: April 18, 2020, 05:51:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 17th, 2020:
     12,924,654 km2, a drop of -77,333 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years (in order to include 2012).  ;)
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #496 on: April 18, 2020, 07:04:57 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,924,654 km2(April 17, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 77 k, 34 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,523 k, 627 k (72%) more than the 10 year average of 886 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  168 k MORE than 2019

On average 8.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 150 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.86 million km2, 0.68 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #497 on: April 18, 2020, 03:23:39 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 17-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,137,146 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,137,146    km2      
-304,077    km2   <   2010's average.
 191,679    km2   >   2019
-518,096    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -49    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -48    k   loss
Central Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -8    k   loss
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -10    k   loss
Barents ______   -15    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    9    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 49 k, -20 k more than the 2010's average loss of 29 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -304 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -518 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 192 k more than 2019          

It looks like a new pattern of winds and warmth is causing a new wave of area lss- mostly in the peripheral seas - but for how long?

The contrast between sea ice area loss in the periphery and in the central seas is probably nearing the peak. I hope to demonstrate this later.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #498 on: April 18, 2020, 03:40:49 PM »
Thank you again for these daily reports...come here every day to read them.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #499 on: April 18, 2020, 06:31:52 PM »
Evaluation of arctic sea ice area - relative area wise from Apr 01 to Apr 176, 2020
A clear differentiation of the Central Arctic Seas & Hudson vs. the other peripheral seas

small gains in Chukchi (+5,5 %)
negligible gains in ESS and Beaufort (+2,3 %; +1,2 %)
almost no change in CAA, CAB and Kara (+0,1 % ... -0,5 %)
negligible loss in Laptev (-1,2 %)
small loss in Hudson (-4,4 %)
_____________

small gain in Barents (+ 4,6 %, not from freezing over but due to continuous import from CAB)
small losses in Grønland and St. Lawrence (-5,5 %; -5,8 %, the latter mostly ice-free)
losses in Baffin and Bering (-15,4 %; -19,4 %)
huge losses in Okhotsk (-32,6 %)
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change