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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #550 on: April 29, 2020, 06:14:34 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,599,173 KM2 as at 28-Apr-2020

- Extent gain on this day 10k, 61 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 51k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,848 k, 486 k, 35.6% more than the 10 year average of 1,363 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  147 k MORE than 2019,

On average 13.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 139 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.01 million km2, 0.83 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

That was a surprise - a one-off, or the beginning of a sustained period of stalled extent loss?
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grixm

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #551 on: April 29, 2020, 08:28:45 AM »
gerontocrat: The last few posts your second and fouth images have been identical

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #552 on: April 29, 2020, 08:54:50 AM »
The difference I see is the comparison with respectively 2012 and 2019.
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grixm

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #553 on: April 29, 2020, 09:27:30 AM »
Hm I see that now. But is that deliberate? The last image used to be a spreadsheet comparing daily values, like in this post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg258560.html#msg258560

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #554 on: April 29, 2020, 11:12:01 AM »
Hm I see that now. But is that deliberate? The last image used to be a spreadsheet comparing daily values, like in this post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg258560.html#msg258560
Juan's postings now include the comparisons I used to post as table 3.
Not only that, he posts more years and orders them from lowest to highest extent.
His table is better and more informative than mine.
So my table is essentially redundant.

That gave me a spare slot. At the moment I use that slot so I can compare daily changes in 2020 with 2012 (the record low year), and with 2019 (which for a brief period looked like producing a new record low 365 day average). I tried putting both years on the same graph but it just makes a mess.

Maybe I will use that spare slot to post some of the other graphs gathering dust inside the machine.

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grixm

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #555 on: April 29, 2020, 11:33:27 AM »
Ok, thanks for the clarification :)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #556 on: April 29, 2020, 04:02:04 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 28-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,468,764 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,468,764    km2      
-516,479    km2   <   2010's average.
-130,591    km2   <   2019
-804,157    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -77    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -49    k   loss
Central Seas___   -28    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -10    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -6    k   loss
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 77 k, -26 k more than the 2010's average loss of 51 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -516 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -804 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is -131 k less than 2019          

On this day a contrast with NSIDC one day and JAXA 2 day extent which show an uptick. The 5 day average smooths out many of these kinks and wobbles.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #557 on: April 30, 2020, 05:57:18 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,650,631 KM2 as at 29-Apr-2020

- Extent gain on this day 51k, 107 k different from the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 56k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,797 k, 378 k, 26.6% more than the 10 year average of 1,419 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  291 k MORE than 2019,

On average 14.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 138 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.12 million km2, 0.94 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
________________________________________________
Looks like a sea ice extent gain of more than 50 k is unique for late April.
In the last 2 days a gain of 61k compared with average 2 day 107k loss.
A big contrast to NSIDC recent large sea ice area losses.

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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #558 on: April 30, 2020, 05:58:21 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 29th, 2020:
     12,650,631 km2, an increase of  51,458 km2:o  :o  :o
     2020 is now 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. My guess is that this increase is not good. We will have to check NSIDC area data (posted later by Gerontocrat). I think that the ASI is losing concentration, that at the end will generate more contact between the ice and the ocean water.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jdallen

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #559 on: April 30, 2020, 06:55:57 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 29th, 2020:
     12,650,631 km2, an increase of  51,458 km2:o  :o  :o
     2020 is now 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
 
P.S. My guess is that this increase is not good. We will have to check NSIDC area data (posted later by Gerontocrat). I think that the ASI is losing concentration, that at the end will generate more contact between the ice and the ocean water.
Yeah, CAPIE is going to go up sharply.  That's between 150-200K worth of dispersion.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #560 on: April 30, 2020, 08:11:25 AM »
Yeah, CAPIE is going to go up sharply.

Yup. The hi res AMSR2 equivalent:

P.S. Don't forget to scroll right!
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #561 on: April 30, 2020, 03:20:45 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 29-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,406,379 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,406,379    km2      
-527,948    km2   <   2010's average.
-161,609    km2   <   2019
-820,860    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -62    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -39    k   loss
Central Seas___   -23    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -15    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Kara_________    4    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 62 k, -11 k more than the 2010's average loss of 51 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -528 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -821 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is -162 k less than 2019          
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pleun

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #562 on: April 30, 2020, 03:42:47 PM »
the compaction graph from cryospherecomputing.tk

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #563 on: May 01, 2020, 05:47:22 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 30th, 2020:
     12,627,020 km2, a drop of -23,611 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Ktb

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #564 on: May 01, 2020, 09:27:57 AM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation. -- Sorry for missing the mid-month update, personal issues. By the time I was ready to post I figured I should just wait until the end of April anyway.

As of April 30th, extent is 12,627,020 km2. With on average 136 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -85,493 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).
Additional fun fact! In the month of April we had zero days where losses outstripped their daily BOE requirement. We had 4 of those days in April 2019.

Total extent loss so far this season is -1,820,621 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -31,390 km2. Since the year 2007, this is the 6th highest average daily loss from maximum to April 30th (2007-2020). (See Attachment 2).

Although it is worth noting that the total extent loss from maximum is 2nd highest on record behind only 2019. (See Attachment 3).

Looking only at the month of April, 2020 lost -972,854 km2, nearly 100,000 km2 less than the 2007-2019 average. This is the 5th smallest loss since 2007. (See Attachment 4).
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Ktb

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #565 on: May 01, 2020, 09:36:29 AM »
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from May 1st to their respective minimums. (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From May 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement is the 7th highest value, of which 2018 is the leader. Keep in mind that 2018's minimum was reached on September 21st, 8 days after our expected end of the season. (See attachment 2).
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #566 on: May 01, 2020, 10:23:37 AM »
Ktb,
thank you for that update - really appreciated that.
Has there ever been a green "TRUE" in your column "Are we on track?" since you started your evaluation?
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #567 on: May 01, 2020, 10:54:08 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,627,020 KM2 as at 30-Apr-2020

- Extent loss on this day 24k, 25 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 49k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,821 k, 353 k, 24.1% more than the 10 year average of 1,468 k.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- Extent is  322 k MORE than 2019,

On average 14.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 137 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.14 million km2, 0.97 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________
The last graph attached contains the April Monthly averages and deviations from trend. Overall the month was a bit below trend, and 3rd lowest in the satellite record, behind 2019 (#1) and 2016 (#2).
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #568 on: May 01, 2020, 03:42:38 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,359,282 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,359,282    km2      
-522,064    km2   <   2010's average.
-150,318    km2   <   2019
-821,067    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -47    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -29    k   loss
Central Seas___   -18    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -17    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Kara_________    8    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 47 k, 6 k less than the 2010's average loss of 53 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -522 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -821 k less than the 2000's average                  
- 2020 Area is -150 k less than 2019          
_____________________________________________
Daily Sea Ice Area loss is in decline. Yet another change in the winds & warmth weather pattern underway?
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #569 on: May 01, 2020, 04:33:26 PM »
It's end-of-the-month data time. We'll see how I get along.

NSIDC Total Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 30-04-2020

Sea Ice Area loss got into its stride from mid-April.
Area loss from maximum is 2.0 million km2, some 0.67 million km2, 51%, greater than the average of the last 10 years of 0.67 million km2.

At 30th April, 2020 sea ice area is 2nd lowest, just 64k km2 more than 2016.

Average remaining melt from now would give a minimum value of 2.51 million km2, some 0.38 million km2 above the 2012 record minimum of 2.25 million km2.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2020, 04:44:30 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #570 on: May 01, 2020, 04:43:59 PM »
NSIDC Total Area Analysis (contd)

The April monthly average is below trend, in contrast with the  March monthly average, which was well above trend.

Athough this April average is above that of 2019, the daily value at 30th April is 150k less than 2019, reflecting the very strong area loss from mid-April.

If 2020 area remains consistently below 2019, this will eventually be visible on the 36 day average graph.

This overall picture conceals some differences between the situation in the peripheral and central arctic seas.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #571 on: May 01, 2020, 05:19:12 PM »
NSIDC - HIGH ARCTIC Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 30th April 2020

High Arctic Sea Ice Area reached a 2nd mini-maximum in mid-April, and from then has declined very quickly indeed, but is still a very small proportion of the total melt of 2 million km2 to date.

Area loss from maximum is 0.44 million km2, some 0.24 million km2, 121%, greater than the average of the last 10 years of 0.20 million km2.

At 30th April, 2020 sea ice area is 3rd lowest, just 40k km2 more than 2016 and 101k km2 more than 2011.

Average remaining melt from now would give a minimum value for the High Arctic sea ice area of 2.73 million km2, some 0.66 million km2 above the 2012 record minimum of 2.07 million km2.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #572 on: May 01, 2020, 05:34:12 PM »
NSIDC High Arctic Area Analysis (contd)

The graphs attached show how the High Arctic has usually not really started significant ice loss in April.

The April monthly average is well below trend, in contrast with the  February monthly average, which was well above trend.

The sea ice area loss in these seas in April was worthy of note.
Future postings will show in which seas this loss has occurred.

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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #573 on: May 01, 2020, 05:57:16 PM »
NSIDC High Arctic Area Analysis (contd)

1st 4 area graphs attached for the Chukchi, ESS, Laptev, & Kara seas.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #574 on: May 01, 2020, 06:09:43 PM »
NSIDC High Arctic Area Analysis (contd)

Final 3 area graphs attached  - the CAA, Beaufort, Central Arctic  seas.

As can be seen from these last 2 postings, just about all the action is on the Russian side.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #575 on: May 01, 2020, 06:42:26 PM »
NSIDC - PERIPHERAL ARCTIC SEAS Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 30th April 2020

Peripheral Arctic Sea Ice Area reached a its maximum in early March at well above the 2010's average, and from then has declined very quickly indeed to well below the 2010's average.

Area loss from maximum is 1.71 million km2, some 0.64 million km2, 60%, greater than the average of the last 10 years of 1.07 million km2.

At 30th April, 2020 sea ice area is 2ndd lowest, just 25k km2 more than 2016.

Average remaining melt from now would give a minimum value for the High Arctic sea ice area of ZERO km2,but it seems the long right tail of the Gompertz curve rules that a bit if ice will remain at minimum..
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #576 on: May 01, 2020, 07:01:27 PM »
NSIDC - PERIPHERAL ARCTIC SEAS Area Analysis (contd)

The April & March monthly average graphs show area changed from well above average to well below average.

The Plume graph attached shows how in the peripheral seas melt is more or less complete by the end of July.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #577 on: May 01, 2020, 07:35:32 PM »
NSIDC Peripheral Arctic Area Analysis (contd)

1st 4 area graphs attached for the Okhotsk, Bering, Hudson & St. Lawrence Seas.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #578 on: May 01, 2020, 07:40:38 PM »
NSIDC Peripheral Arctic Area Analysis (contd)

Last 3 area graphs attached for Baffin Bay, the Greenland & Barents Seas.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #579 on: May 01, 2020, 07:41:46 PM »
?
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #580 on: May 01, 2020, 09:36:05 PM »
Thank you very much indeed for these analyses  :)
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Ktb

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #581 on: May 02, 2020, 03:19:15 AM »
Ktb,
thank you for that update - really appreciated that.
Has there ever been a green "TRUE" in your column "Are we on track?" since you started your evaluation?

In short, no. But previously if I play with the data I can get it to say TRUE at the start of every month if the first of the month has a high enough loss.

The way my spreadsheet is set up **this year compared to last years** we would need to drop -2.3 million km2 to get back on track and see a TRUE in that column.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2020, 05:15:18 AM by Ktb »
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #582 on: May 02, 2020, 05:47:04 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 1st, 2020:
     12,580,895 km2, a drop of -46,125 km2.
     2020 is now 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #583 on: May 02, 2020, 09:58:13 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,580,895 KM2 as at 01-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 46k, 13 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 59k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,867 k, 340 k, 22.3% more than the 10 year average of 1,526 k.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- Extent is  344 k MORE than 2019,

On average 15.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 136 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.16 million km2, 0.98 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
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VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #584 on: May 02, 2020, 10:25:14 AM »
"Average remaining melt from now would give a minimum value for the High Arctic sea ice area of ZERO km2,but it seems the long right tail of the Gompertz curve rules that a bit if ice will remain at minimum." NOTE: >>

The earlier in season the loss occurs, the less sea ice refugia remains: this increases chances for melting and sea ice scattering by wind or sea currents. It is far from necessity for some ice to remain, but Hudson Bay's Foxe Basin and Okhotsk Sea best proxies that melt-resisting corners might exist. High latitude insulation is 360 degree v. Ohotsk Sea or Hudson Bay's Foxe Basin where lightening conditions in midnight are lower. (Both these have mountains projecting shadows, you can see shadows' effect on the lakes on the spring.) If temperatures rise very high, air mixing leaves behind no cold corners (total loss event).

NSIDC - PERIPHERAL ARCTIC SEAS Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 30th April 2020

Peripheral Arctic Sea Ice Area reached a its maximum in early March at well above the 2010's average, and from then has declined very quickly indeed to well below the 2010's average.

Area loss from maximum is 1.71 million km2, some 0.64 million km2, 60%, greater than the average of the last 10 years of 1.07 million km2.

At 30th April, 2020 sea ice area is 2ndd lowest, just 25k km2 more than 2016.

Average remaining melt from now would give a minimum value for the High Arctic sea ice area of ZERO km2,but it seems the long right tail of the Gompertz curve rules that a bit if ice will remain at minimum..
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #585 on: May 02, 2020, 03:04:24 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 01-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,333,302 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,333,302    km2      
-482,546    km2   <   2010's average.
-92,731    km2   <   2019
-805,702    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -26    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -23    k   loss
Central Seas___   -3    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -12    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Kara_________    8    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 26 k, 39 k less than the 2010's average loss of 65 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -483 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -806 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is -93 k less than 2019          

Slow down in area loss continues.........
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #586 on: May 03, 2020, 06:05:18 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 2nd, 2020:
     12,539,699 km2, a drop of -41,196 km2.
     2020 is 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #587 on: May 03, 2020, 12:02:18 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,539,699 KM2 as at 02-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 41k, 9 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 50k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,908 k, 332 k, 21.1% more than the 10 year average of 1,576 k.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- Extent is  363 k MORE than 2019,

On average 15.8% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 135 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.16 million km2, 0.99 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #588 on: May 03, 2020, 03:36:26 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 02-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,333,896 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,333,896    km2      
-414,988    km2   <   2010's average.
 1,874    km2   >   2019
-767,246    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     1    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -12    k   loss
Central Seas___    13    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -8    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    10    k   gain
Kara_________    8    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day -1 k, 68 k less than the 2010's average loss of 67 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -415 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -767 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 2 k more than 2019          

Daily Sea Ice Area loss has declined to a stop. Will this persist or is it a brief pause while the weather moves into a different pattern? My guess is for subdued melt for several days
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #589 on: May 04, 2020, 06:01:52 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 3rd, 2020:
     12,500,250 km2, a drop of -39,449 km2.
     2020 is 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #590 on: May 04, 2020, 11:56:55 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,500,250 KM2 as at 03-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 39k, 10 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 49k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,947 k, 322 k, 19.8% more than the 10 year average of 1,625 k.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- Extent is  383 k MORE than 2019,

On average 16.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 134 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.17 million km2, 1.00 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

Sea Ice Extent loss remaining subdued - at least until the weekend?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #591 on: May 04, 2020, 03:06:55 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 03-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,329,365 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,329,365    km2      
-353,483    km2   <   2010's average.
 79,195    km2   >   2019
-732,523    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -5    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -17    k   loss
Central Seas___    12    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -8    k   loss
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -7    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
Laptev_______    9    k   gain
Kara_________    5    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 5 k, 61 k less than the 2010's average loss of 66 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -353 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -733 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 79 k more than 2019          

Sea ice are loss very low, while sea ice extent loss caught up a bit. Maybe area loss will stay subdued until the weekend - but then GFS says.....(no, too far ahead).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #592 on: May 05, 2020, 05:50:10 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 4th, 2020:
     12,423,678 km2, a drop of -76,572 km2.
     2020 is 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #593 on: May 05, 2020, 06:23:59 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,423,678 KM2 as at 04-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 77k, -26 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 51k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,024 k, 348 k, 20.7% more than the 10 year average of 1,676 k.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- Extent is  336 k MORE than 2019,

On average 16.8% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 133 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.15 million km2, 0.97 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

Earlier than I thought, warmth is building up in Western North America, & by Saturday at the Pacific end of the Arctic Ocean and over Western Siberia. Next week could be interesting.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #594 on: May 05, 2020, 09:45:08 PM »
I took the monthly extent value for April 2020 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the extent anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average (1979-2020) April extent is now 14.55 M km². April 2020 had an average extent of 13.73 M km², which is 0.82 M km² less than that long-term average.
The more or less parallel to normal development in April 2020 kept the actual value above the red long-term linear trend line by 0.29 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this April should have been at 13.44 M km²).
The slope of the long-term linear trend line has thus further decreased by one digit (-0.0550 instead of -0.0551).

See attached graph.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #595 on: May 05, 2020, 10:19:16 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 04-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,326,918 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,326,918    km2      
-295,490    km2   <   2010's average.
 148,621    km2   >   2019
-695,099    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -2    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -17    k   loss
Central Seas___    15    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -8    k   loss
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Kara_________    6    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 2 k, 58 k less than the 2010's average loss of 60 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -295 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -695 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 149 k more than 2019          

While area loss stalls, extent loss does not.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #596 on: May 06, 2020, 06:02:15 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,398,930 KM2 as at 05-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 25k, 28 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,049 k, 320 k, 18.5% more than the 10 year average of 1,729 k.
- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record
- Extent is  357 k MORE than 2019,

On average 17.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 132 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.18 million km2, 1.00 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

GFS still sayng that come the weekend much of Northern Europe is starting to be given a dose of Arctic cold whille above zero temperatures enter and spread over much of the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait.

The extent plume continues to show how much of an outlier 2012 really was.



"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #597 on: May 06, 2020, 06:03:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 5th, 2020:
     12,398,930 km2, a drop of -24,748 km2.
     2020 is 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: May 06, 2020, 06:43:36 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #598 on: May 06, 2020, 03:39:58 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 05-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,337,103 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,337,103    km2      
-229,485    km2   <   2010's average.
 221,969    km2   >   2019
-642,794    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     10    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas___    18    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -8    k   loss
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    4    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Kara_________    4    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day -10 k, 66 k less than the 2010's average loss of 56 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -229 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -643 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 222 k more than 2019          
____________________________________________-
Area loss not only stalls but goes into reverse, while extent loss in the peripheral seas remains strong.
However, GFS is still saying that come the weekend much of Northern Europe will be given a dose of Arctic cold while above zero temperatures enter and spread over much of the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait. When the GFS forecast stays pretty solid for several days my anecdotal experience is that it is more likely to be correct.

So maybe come the weekend and next week the Arctic ice will get somewhat of a battering?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #599 on: May 07, 2020, 06:07:49 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 6th, 2020:
     12,369,413 km2, a drop of -29,517 km2.
     2020 is now 6th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.