Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data  (Read 293030 times)

Niall Dollard

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 723
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 294
  • Likes Given: 63
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #600 on: May 07, 2020, 10:20:54 AM »
         
 Total Change     10    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas___    18    k   gain
      
Sea ice area loss gain on this day +10 k -10k, 66 k less than the 2010's average loss of 56 k         


Think that bit's right now !  :)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #601 on: May 07, 2020, 12:10:46 PM »
         
 Total Change     10    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas___    18    k   gain
      
Sea ice area loss gain on this day +10 k -10k, 66 k less than the 2010's average loss of 56 k         
I made the commentary work on autopilot - and forgot that it would not cope with gains when losses are the norm.

Think that bit's right now !  :)
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #602 on: May 07, 2020, 12:25:49 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,369,413 KM2 as at 06-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 30k, 19 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 49k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,078 k, 301 k, 16.9% more than the 10 year average of 1,778 k.
- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record
- Extent is  393 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________
On average 17.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 131 days to minimum
_____
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.20 million km2, 1.02 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Now looks probable that above freezing temperatures will enter a considerable part of the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific end starting this weekend into at least early next week
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #603 on: May 07, 2020, 03:23:39 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 06-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,329,528 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,329,528    km2      
-194,045    km2   <   2010's average.
 268,998    km2   >   2019
-606,962    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -8    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -19    k   loss
Central Seas___    11    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -7    k   loss
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 8 k, 35 k less than the 2010's average loss of 43 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -194 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -607 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 269 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Perhaps one can see the first signs of the change from area loss stalling to ...?... as above freezing temperatures enter a considerable part of the Arctic Ocean in the next few days
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1927
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 947
  • Likes Given: 635
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #604 on: May 08, 2020, 05:46:41 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 7th, 2020:
     12,294,656 km2, a drop of -74,757 km2.
     2020 is 6th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #605 on: May 08, 2020, 08:44:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,294,656 KM2 as at 07-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 75k, -25 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 50k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,153 k, 325 k, 17.8% more than the 10 year average of 1,828 k.
- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record
- Extent is  352 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 18.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 130 days to minimum
_____
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.17 million km2, 0.99 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #606 on: May 08, 2020, 03:32:38 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 07-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,298,255 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,298,255    km2      
-184,636    km2   <   2010's average.
 277,719    km2   >   2019
-594,327    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -31    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -33    k   loss
Central Seas___    2    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 31 k, 10 k less than the 2010's average loss of 41 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -185 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -594 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 278 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         

It looks very much as if one can see the first signs of the change from area loss stalling to a new wave of area losses as above freezing temperatures enter a considerable part of the Arctic Ocean starting this weekend.

Daily Extent has lost 200k in 2 days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1927
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 947
  • Likes Given: 635
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #607 on: May 09, 2020, 06:10:44 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Google traductor:

The Arctic Data Archive System (ADS) will be closed at the following times due to system maintenance.
We apologize for any inconvenience caused.
・ Maintenance date and time
Friday, May 8, 2020 17:00 to May 11, 9:00

https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR/status/1258615077885759499?s=20
 :(
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2078
  • 0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 323
  • Likes Given: 17277
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #608 on: May 09, 2020, 04:31:10 PM »
Take a well deserved break Juan! Leave your tech at home for a couple of days.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #609 on: May 09, 2020, 04:33:52 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 08-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,260,469 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,260,469    km2      
-180,124    km2   <   2010's average.
 277,480    km2   >   2019
-584,265    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -38    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -31    k   loss
Central Seas___   -7    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -14    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 38 k, 4 k less than the 2010's average loss of 42 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -180 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -584 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 277 k more than 2019          
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1271
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 526
  • Likes Given: 220
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #610 on: May 10, 2020, 11:15:38 AM »
Evaluation "relative area wise" from Apr 21 to May 08, 2020.
No changes in most of the Central Arctic Seas. The only relevant differences were detected in ESS and Kara Seas (each -6%).
All of the Peripheral Seas show losses. The last of the seas (Hudson) now also joined the melting season. The list is dominated by Okhotsk (-63 %), followed by
Bering (-25 %) and Barents (-17 %).
Hudson, Baffin and Grønland Seas lost 8-9 % of their ice area.
More or less irrelevant is the 5 % loss of St. Lawrence which has almost melted completely.

It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #611 on: May 10, 2020, 03:41:16 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 09-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,212,190 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,212,190    km2      
-181,544    km2   <   2010's average.
 258,817    km2   >   2019
-583,880    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -48    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -33    k   loss
Central Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______   -14    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________   -14    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 48 k, -1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 47 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -182 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -584 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 259 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Area loss up a bit more.
It just maybe that over the next week or more we will see Arctic sea ice (and snow cover) under attack on all  fronts at various times - i.e. a major warming event
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

zufall

  • New ice
  • Posts: 65
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 28
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #612 on: May 11, 2020, 06:42:07 AM »
JAXA ViSHOP available again, but with no new data. The extent of May 7 is still the latest value.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1927
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 947
  • Likes Given: 635
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #613 on: May 11, 2020, 07:24:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 10th, 2020:
     
The system is back, but it is 2 hours later than usual and they have not posted the new data.
It is time for me to go to bed.
If someone else (surely Gerontocrat) post the data.
Thanks.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5822
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1969
  • Likes Given: 1728
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #614 on: May 11, 2020, 12:37:29 PM »
I have moved two good posts to the melting season thread where they fit better, but then realized a part was pertinent here:
It is 1030 am. & still no JAXA data - patience is a virtue?


gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #615 on: May 11, 2020, 03:27:49 PM »
I have moved two good posts to the melting season thread where they fit better, but then realized a part was pertinent here:
It is 1030 am. & still no JAXA data - patience is a virtue?

Quite right, Oren - it's just that they get so ratty on the melting thread. Meanwhile - NSIDC Area Data

NSIDC Total Area as at 10-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,144,179 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,144,179    km2      
-199,626    km2   <   2010's average.
 222,516    km2   >   2019
-607,260    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -68    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -42    k   loss
Central Seas___   -26    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -18    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -10    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Kara_________   -16    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 68 k, -18 k more than the 2010's average loss of 50 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -200 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -607 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 223 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Arctic temperature anomaly +2.0 celsius now, + 4.1 by the 15th May, (and perhaps between +4 & +4.5 for the week after.). Methinks lot of ice and a lot of snow is going to melt.

Watch this space for the unfolding of the Great 2020 Mid-May Melting Event ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #616 on: May 11, 2020, 03:40:24 PM »
The Peripheral Seas continue to lose ice area ahead of schedule.

The Central Seas resist - with the Kara looking the most vulnerable.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #617 on: May 11, 2020, 07:37:10 PM »
A closer look at the 7 Peripheral seas

NSIDC - PERIPHERAL ARCTIC Area Analysis in Jaxa Format at 10 May 2020  2,810,027 km2

4th lowest after a few days of below average area loss.
A new wave of losses may have started.

The failed spreadsheet of projections still looking at zero ice at minimum, but with more years showing ice at greater than zero.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #618 on: May 11, 2020, 07:38:32 PM »
and here is the plume of projections using previous years' remaining melt.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1927
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 947
  • Likes Given: 635
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #619 on: May 12, 2020, 05:52:49 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 8th, 2020:
     12,203,915 km2, a drop of -90,741 km2.
May 9th, 2020:
     12,142,756 km2, a drop of -61,159 km2.
May 10th, 2020:
     12,072,219 km2, a drop of -70,537 km2.

May 11th, 2020:
     12,019,349 km2, a drop of -52,870 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     2013 has a missing value, average calculated.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #620 on: May 12, 2020, 06:07:18 AM »
Kara should go berserk soon as the WAA is heading for the area.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #621 on: May 12, 2020, 10:59:14 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,019,349 KM2 as at 11-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 53k, 4 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 57k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,428 k, 354 k, 17.1% more than the 10 year average of 2,075 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  208 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 20.8% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 126 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.14 million km2, 0.97 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.5 to +4.5 celsius in the next 5 days, (and maybe after that in the range +3.5 to + 4.5).  The last table shows the daily change in extent in May of the 4 years with the lowest September minimum. If the forecast temperatures hold, 2020 may well stay in that group.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #622 on: May 12, 2020, 03:27:36 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,082,598 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,082,598    km2      
-209,433    km2   <   2010's average.
 178,874    km2   >   2019
-620,320    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -62    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -34    k   loss
Central Seas___   -27    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -16    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 62 k, -10 k more than the 2010's average loss of 52 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -209 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -620 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 179 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
13 out of 14 seas with an area loss.
With the likelihood that the Arctic temperature will remain considerably above the average, some acceleration in area (and extent) loss is possible or even probable.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #623 on: May 12, 2020, 03:40:01 PM »
Hudson Bay & the Kara Sea are certainly candidates for significant ice losses over the next week or so, reflecting that the warmth is all over the place at various times.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1927
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 947
  • Likes Given: 635
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #624 on: May 13, 2020, 05:46:09 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 12th, 2020:
     11,961,735 km2, a drop of -57,614 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     2013 has a missing value, average calculated.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #625 on: May 13, 2020, 09:18:53 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,961,735 KM2 as at 12-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 58k, 8 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 66k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,486 k, 345 k, 16.1% more than the 10 year average of 2,141 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  173 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 21.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 125 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.15 million km2, 0.97 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #626 on: May 13, 2020, 03:10:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,028,014 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,028,014    km2      
-207,617    km2   <   2010's average.
 153,061    km2   >   2019
-625,109    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -55    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -24    k   loss
Central Seas___   -30    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -13    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 55 k, 1 k less than the 2010's average loss of 56 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -208 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -625 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 153 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Steady but not remarkable area losses in the last few days.
Kara loses ice, & Barents/Greenland Seas gain ice, but by this time of year freezing in these seas is pretty much ceased. So any additional ice arriving in the Barents/Greenland is being sent to oblivion, i.e. a watery grave (sorry), impoverishing ice content in the CAB.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1927
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 947
  • Likes Given: 635
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #627 on: May 14, 2020, 05:47:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 13th, 2020:
     11,896,812 km2, a drop of -64,923 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     2013 has a missing value, average calculated.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #628 on: May 14, 2020, 09:02:06 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,896,812 KM2 as at 13-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 65k, -12 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,551 k, 357 k, 16.3% more than the 10 year average of 2,193 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  175 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 22.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 124 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.14 million km2, 0.96 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #629 on: May 14, 2020, 03:25:46 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,950,184 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,950,184    km2      
-227,586    km2   <   2010's average.
 109,394    km2   >   2019
-654,592    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -78    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -36    k   loss
Central Seas___   -42    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -17    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -7    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Kara_________   -14    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 78 k, -20 k more than the 2010's average loss of 58 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 228 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 655 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 109 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Steady but not remarkable area losses gradually increasing in the last few days - now at well above average.

Also an interesting switch - area loss in the Central Seas higher than in the periphery for the last 2 days. I thought this switch normally came later when peripheral seas had lost much more ice.

Kara loses ice, & Greenland Sea gains ice (Fram export), but by this time of year freezing in the Greenland sea is pretty much history.

Average Arctic temperatures look like staying well above average for the next 10 days - Western & Central Siberia look like damnation without relief. Only marginal +ve anomalies in the CAA and Pacific end of the Arctic Ocean.

This could be a long period of above average sea ice area losses.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #630 on: May 14, 2020, 03:47:28 PM »
NSIDC - HIGH ARCTIC Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 13-May-2020 :- 8,234,529 km2

With melting in the 7 seas of the High Arctic underway, here is some data..

Area 3rd lowest in the satellite record, down from 21st, yes #21, on April 17.

Area loss from maximum 523k km2, 156k ( 42% ) less than the average of 156k.

Too early in the season to make meaningful projections, so instead here is the official map of the NSIDC Arctic seas, that are consistent with the tables posted abve.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1927
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 947
  • Likes Given: 635
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #631 on: May 15, 2020, 05:54:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 14th, 2020:
     11,744,488 km2, a century drop of -152,324 km2:o
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     2013 has a missing value, average calculated.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #632 on: May 15, 2020, 10:45:22 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,744,488 KM2 as at 14-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 152k, -99 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,703 k, 457 k, 20.4% more than the 10 year average of 2,246 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  87 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 22.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 123 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.04 million km2, 0.86 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
“What a difference a day makes, 24 little hours...”
This daily area loss is the maximum daily loss in May (since 2002) by 21k.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

wallen

  • New ice
  • Posts: 67
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 17
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #633 on: May 15, 2020, 12:55:09 PM »
152k extent loss fro the 14th May. Is this record for May or at least the first half of May?

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7680
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1039
  • Likes Given: 504
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #634 on: May 15, 2020, 01:17:18 PM »
152k extent loss fro the 14th May. Is this record for May or at least the first half of May?

It is in my spreadsheet, which starts in 2005:
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #635 on: May 15, 2020, 01:30:45 PM »
152k extent loss fro the 14th May. Is this record for May or at least the first half of May?
Why do I post? Read it.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

wallen

  • New ice
  • Posts: 67
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 17
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #636 on: May 15, 2020, 03:09:30 PM »
152k extent loss fro the 14th May. Is this record for May or at least the first half of May?
Why do I post? Read it.

No offence meant I did read your post. Nevin's spreadsheet gave me a better read on what I was looking for.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #637 on: May 15, 2020, 03:44:56 PM »
152k extent loss fro the 14th May. Is this record for May or at least the first half of May?
Why do I post? Read it.
No offence meant I did read your post. Nevin's spreadsheet gave me a better read on what I was looking for.
Sorry, I was listening to Radio4 talking about what our Govt is doing about Covid-19.
Enough to make the most even-tempered individual feeling really ratty.

Meanwhile....

NSIDC Total Area as at 14-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,881,568 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,881,568    km2      
-231,465    km2   <   2010's average.
 89,890    km2   >   2019
-671,697    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -69    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -34    k   loss
Central Seas___   -35    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
Bering _______   -10    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -11    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -6    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 69 k, -4 k more than the 2010's average loss of 65 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 231 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 672 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 90 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Note that this daily area loss is only 4k less than the 2010's average for this day.
We are soon to enter the peak melting period. By mid-June the average daily sea ice area loss is over 100k.

But if the rest of this month shows above average loss the effect may be more significant (e.g. on AWP- Albedo Warming Potential) than larger losses at a later date.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #638 on: May 15, 2020, 04:17:17 PM »
NSIDC Area data (continued)

One oddity that is continuing is that
- area loss in the periphery now below average,
- area loss in the high Arctic now above average.

Not sure what that means (if anything). Ice in the Central seas (literally) in rotten shape?

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5822
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1969
  • Likes Given: 1728
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #639 on: May 15, 2020, 08:01:04 PM »
I moved the posts to the Melting Season thread where they belong, thank you BL for the heads up.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1927
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 947
  • Likes Given: 635
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #640 on: May 16, 2020, 05:53:32 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 15th, 2020:
     11,637,165 km2, a century drop of -107,323 km2.
     2020 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
      Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: May 16, 2020, 05:59:48 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #641 on: May 16, 2020, 08:30:35 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,637,165 KM2 as at 15-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 107k, -60 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 47k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,810 k, 518 k, 22.6% more than the 10 year average of 2,293 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  69 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 23.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 122 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.98 million km2, 0.80 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
“What a difference 2 days make, 48 little hours...”
The maximum daily loss in May (since 2002) by 21k followed by a century break counts as an event?

What comes next ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Ktb

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 228
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 110
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #642 on: May 16, 2020, 11:06:21 AM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation - Mid monthly so no BOE comparison to other years

May 15th extent was 11,637,165 km2. With on average 121 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -87,910 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

Total extent loss thus far in May 2020 was -989,855 km2. And total extent loss so far this season is -2,810,476 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily melt rate of -38,500 km2. If the month of May ended today, this would be the 12th slowest rate of melt for the same period for the years 2007-2020. (See Attachment 2).
Additional note: The average melt from maximum to May 31st (2007-2019) is ~3.1 mil km2, we are some 290,000 km2 away with 16 days in May to go.

Looking only at the month of May thus far, we have averaged -65,990 km2 per day. If the month of May ended today, this average daily drop places May 2020 as 2nd out of 14 (2007-2020) in average daily May melt, behind only 2010. (See Attachment 3).

What do the ASIF gods see in the melt season thread? Preconditioning. Albedo loss. Anomalous heat. High pressure ridging. Impending/continued snow loss over Eurasia.
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #643 on: May 16, 2020, 03:37:35 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,807,936 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,807,936    km2      
-241,934    km2   <   2010's average.
 61,614    km2   >   2019
-689,541    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -74    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -37    k   loss
Central Seas___   -37    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -11    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -20    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -13    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 74 k, -11 k more than the 2010's average loss of 63 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 242 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 690 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 62 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
A significant series of daily sea ice loss emerging - but 2016 is still the year when early melt really pushed the AWP graph up.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1927
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 947
  • Likes Given: 635
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #644 on: May 17, 2020, 05:49:04 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 16th, 2020:
     11,549,869 km2, a drop of -87,296 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
      Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #645 on: May 17, 2020, 09:23:58 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,549,869 KM2 as at 16-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 87k, -26 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 61k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,898 k, 545 k, 23.1% more than the 10 year average of 2,353 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  62 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 23.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 121 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.95 million km2, 0.77 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #646 on: May 17, 2020, 04:59:59 PM »
It looks like no NSIDC data arriving today.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1927
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 947
  • Likes Given: 635
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #647 on: May 18, 2020, 05:45:18 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 17th, 2020:
     11,463,303 km2, a drop of -86,566 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
      Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #648 on: May 18, 2020, 12:20:59 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,463,303 KM2 as at 17-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 87k, -29 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,984 k, 573 k, 23.8% more than the 10 year average of 2,411 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  42 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 24.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 120 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.92 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
With Arctic temperatures (per GFS) set to remain at 3 to 4.5 degrees celsius above average it is difficult not to see above average daily sea ice losses for the next week and more.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3398
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #649 on: May 18, 2020, 03:16:19 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 17-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,624,423 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,624,423    km2      
-300,436    km2   <   2010's average.
 12,616    km2   >   2019
-759,547    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -98    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -48    k   loss
Central Seas___   -50    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -28    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -13    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -10    k   loss
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Kara_________   -15    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 98 k, -37 k more than the 2010's average loss of 61 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 300 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 760 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 13 k more than 2019          
______________________________________________
After looking at the tables attached...
- my first reaction was a Friv to whit "Fuck-a-Duck",
- my 2nd reaction was that I could not remember seeing just about every sea being clobbered this widespread way,
- my third reaction was - but look at Hudson Bay & the CAA, the cold in North Central Canada still hanging on,
- my 4th reaction was - these are 5 day trailing averages, which means more to come

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)