Semimonthly BOE evaluation - Mid monthly so no BOE comparison to other years
May 15th extent was 11,637,165 km2. With on average 121 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -87,910 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).
Total extent loss thus far in May 2020 was -989,855 km2. And total extent loss so far this season is -2,810,476 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily melt rate of -38,500 km2. If the month of May ended today, this would be the 12th slowest rate of melt for the same period for the years 2007-2020. (See Attachment 2).
Additional note: The average melt from maximum to May 31st (2007-2019) is ~3.1 mil km2, we are some 290,000 km2 away with 16 days in May to go.
Looking only at the month of May thus far, we have averaged -65,990 km2 per day. If the month of May ended today, this average daily drop places May 2020 as 2nd out of 14 (2007-2020) in average daily May melt, behind only 2010. (See Attachment 3).
What do the ASIF gods see in the melt season thread? Preconditioning. Albedo loss. Anomalous heat. High pressure ridging. Impending/continued snow loss over Eurasia.