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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #650 on: May 18, 2020, 06:25:55 PM »
Another  look at NSIDC Area data.

NSIDC Total Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 17-05-2020 :-  10,624,423 km2

Area loss from maximum this season 2.74 million Km2, 0.45 million (20%) less MORE than the average of 2.29 million km2.

Average melt from now would give a minimum of 2.73 million km2, 0.48 million km2 greater than the record low 2016 minimum of 2.25 million km2.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2020, 06:44:40 AM by gerontocrat »
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jdallen

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #651 on: May 18, 2020, 10:37:22 PM »
Another  look at NSIDC Area data.

NSIDC Total Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 17-05-2020 :-  10,624,423 km2

Area loss from maximum this season 2.74 million Km2, 0.45 million (20%) less than the average of 2.29 million km2.

Average melt from now would give a minimum of 2.73 million km2, 0.48 million km2 greater than the record low 2016 minimum of 2.25 million km2.
Moreso than extent, this is the metric I will be watching most carefully over the coming months.

I'd prefer volume, but data on that is less certain.
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oren

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #652 on: May 18, 2020, 10:59:58 PM »
2012 was the record low 2.25M.
2016 came in as a respectable 2nd with 2.45M.

binntho

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #653 on: May 19, 2020, 04:11:18 AM »
Area loss from maximum this season 2.74 million Km2, 0.45 million (20%) less than the average of 2.29 million km2.

Not that I usually quibble over small mistakes (!) but this made me scratch my head. Isn't it more correct to say that area loss is 20% more than the average to date?

I.e. the average is 2.29, loss to date is 2.74, the difference is 0.45 which is 19.65% of the average.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #654 on: May 19, 2020, 06:25:39 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 18th, 2020:
     11,413,895 km2, a drop of -49,408 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
      Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #655 on: May 19, 2020, 06:41:53 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,413,895 KM2 as at 18-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 49k, 4 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,034 k, 569 k, 23.1% more than the 10 year average of 2,465 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  39 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 24.8% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 119 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.93 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #656 on: May 19, 2020, 03:20:58 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,545,085 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,545,085    km2      
-316,906    km2   <   2010's average.
 4,235    km2   >   2019
-778,003    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -79    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -44    k   loss
Central Seas___   -36    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -14    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______   -9    k   loss
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 79 k, -16 k more than the 2010's average loss of 63 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 317 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 778 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 4 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #657 on: May 19, 2020, 04:12:47 PM »
After a very high maximum and a slow start to melting, the Central Seas (aka High Arctic) are losing area fast, and mostly in the Kara Sea (now lowest in the satellite record ).
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #658 on: May 19, 2020, 10:45:55 PM »
Here is my long-term arctic sea ice volume deviation chart. Since December 2019 the values are above the long-term linear trend lines. These differences are larger compared to the early months in 2019. So the slope has slightly decreased compared with early 2019, when I published this graph the last time.

See attached graph.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #659 on: May 20, 2020, 05:45:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 19th, 2020:
     11,373,594 km2, a drop of -40,301 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #660 on: May 20, 2020, 08:23:52 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,373,594 KM2 as at 19-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 40k, 17 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 57k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,074 k, 552 k, 21.9% more than the 10 year average of 2,522 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  51 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 25.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 118 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.94 million km2, 0.77 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
To my surprise, extent losses reduced to below average despite temperature anomalies at or above +3 degrees celsius. These temperature anomalies set to persist with well above freezing temperatures over various parts of the Arctic at various times. Somethings gotta give?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #661 on: May 20, 2020, 04:13:24 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,448,838 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,448,838    km2      
-354,146    km2   <   2010's average.
-17,587    km2   <   2019
-811,153    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -96    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -50    k   loss
Central Seas___   -46    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -19    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -7    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -15    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______   -14    k   loss
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 96 k, -37 k more than the 2010's average loss of 59 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 354 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 811 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is -18 k less than 2019          
___________________________________________         
With posthumous apologies to William Butler Yeats

Turning and turning in the widening gyre   
The icepack cannot bear the strain;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the ice,
The blood-dimmed tide of melt is loosed,
And everywhere the floes are drowned;
The best ice lacks conviction, while the worst   
Is full of final decay.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #662 on: May 20, 2020, 05:40:59 PM »
Sea Ice Area analysis "relative area wise" May 06-May 19, 2020.
The melting has not started yet in CAA, CAB and ESS. Minor losses (5-8%) in Laptev, Beaufort and Hudson. Greater losses (10-19%) in Chukchi, Baffin, and Kara. Big losses in St Lawrence (-28%). Huge losses in Barents (-42%), Bering (-42%) and Okhotsk (-44%). A little gain in Grønland Sea, not because of re-freezing, but caused by permanent export from CAB through the Fram Strait.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #663 on: May 20, 2020, 07:29:47 PM »
On the 16th April the Sea Ice Area in the Central Arctic Sea was the highest in the satellite record for that day.

On the 19th May the sea ice area for that sea is 10th lowest.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #664 on: May 21, 2020, 05:42:39 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 20th, 2020:
     11,304,770 km2, a drop of -68,824 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #665 on: May 21, 2020, 08:31:20 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,304,770 KM2 as at 20-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 69k, -8 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 61k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,143 k, 560 k, 21.7% more than the 10 year average of 2,583 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  46 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 26.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 117 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.94 million km2, 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Yet again, Arctic temperature anomalies are set at or above +3 degrees celsius, & set to persist with well above freezing temperatures over various parts of the Arctic at various times.
The cold patch over the CAA is the one place that an unseasonable chill just will not dissipate
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #666 on: May 21, 2020, 03:29:00 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,351,631 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,351,631    km2      
-391,114    km2   <   2010's average.
-38,993    km2   <   2019
-846,990    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -97    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -51    k   loss
Central Seas___   -46    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -25    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______   -19    k   loss
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 97 k, -37 k more than the 2010's average loss of 60 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 391 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 847 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is -39 k less than 2019          
___________________________________________         
All 14 seas lost sea ice area on this day.
Doesn't happen often.

On a sea ice area basis, 2020 melt is one week ahead of the 2010's average & 2 weeks ahead of the 2000's average
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #667 on: May 21, 2020, 03:40:10 PM »
NSIDC Data - Sea Ice Area Graphs
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #668 on: May 21, 2020, 03:56:20 PM »
The melting season so far - Sea Ice Area from NSIDC Data

Peripheral Seas (1)

Okhotsk - nearly done.
Bering -  over in less than one month

Hudson Bay - large parts look ready to disintegrate.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #669 on: May 21, 2020, 04:14:28 PM »
The melting season so far - Sea Ice Area from NSIDC Data

Peripheral Seas (2)

St Lawrence - nearly done,
Baffin Bay - 44 days in succession at lowest area in the satellite record.
Greenland Sea - ice export from the CAB kept ice in the north high,
                      - southern half denuded of ice, result = average ice area.
Barents Sea     - after well above average ice all year, has the dam burst?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #670 on: May 21, 2020, 04:24:02 PM »
The melting season so far - Sea Ice Area from NSIDC Data

High Arctic Seas (1)

Chukchi, CAA & Beaufort all very slow to start melt.

Maybe the Beaufort is looking weak
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 04:34:43 PM by gerontocrat »
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be cause

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #671 on: May 21, 2020, 04:24:11 PM »
Hi G .. your remark that we are 1 week ahead of the 2010's , 2 ahead of 2000's holds true for 3 weeks ahead of the 90's and 4 ahead of the 80's .. In fact .. 31 days ahead of the 80's .. so we are already at the equivalent of 80's solstice today . Scary ! b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #672 on: May 21, 2020, 04:33:57 PM »
The melting season so far - Sea Ice Area from NSIDC Data

High Arctic Seas (2)

Kara - now lowest in satellite record for 5 days
Laptev - about to feel the Siberian heat?
ESS     - ditto?

Central Arctic Sea - last year very low area loss. This year?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #673 on: May 21, 2020, 05:30:17 PM »
& one more for luck.

I like to invert concentration into dispersion., i.e. extent divided by area.
The higher the dispersion, the more mobile the ice can be, & therefore more pone to damage by rough weather, and more radiation getting into the ocean?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #674 on: May 22, 2020, 06:25:39 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 21st, 2020:
     11,214,446 km2, a drop of -90,324 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record, practically tied with 2nd lowest (2019).
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #675 on: May 22, 2020, 09:37:53 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,214,446 KM2 as at 21-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 90k, -36 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,233 k, 596 k, 22.6% more than the 10 year average of 2,637 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  5 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 26.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 116 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.90 million km2, 0.72 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
+ve temperature anomalies above 3 degrees for the next 5 days, and then perhaps a gradual moderation by half a degree in the 5 days following. Above average daily sea ice loss more likely than below average.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 10:24:11 AM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #676 on: May 22, 2020, 03:58:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 21-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,265,595 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,265,595    km2      
-417,737    km2   <   2010's average.
-65,134    km2   <   2019
-869,596    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -86    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -39    k   loss
Central Seas___   -47    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -23    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______   -10    k   loss
Kara_________   -14    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 86 k, -27 k more than the 2010's average loss of 59 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 418 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 870 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 223 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is -65 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         

Will area loss in the rest of May bring 2010 to #1 in the satellite record by 1 June?
In a parallel universe perhaps yes, but in this one more likely 2020
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 09:58:52 PM by gerontocrat »
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be cause

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #677 on: May 22, 2020, 04:42:31 PM »
Like me , I see it is easy for G. to forget the odd passing decade . 2020 may yet take the lead this May .. but 2010 ? :)  b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #678 on: May 22, 2020, 09:43:09 PM »
Another look at area...

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA:  10,265,595 KM2 as at 21-May-2020

- Area loss on this day 86k, 27 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 59k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,097 k, 570 k, 22.6% more than the 10 year average of 2,527 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -65 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is  223 k MORE than 2016
______________________________-
On average 33.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 116 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 2.61 million km2, 0.36 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 2.25 million km2.
________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #679 on: May 22, 2020, 09:50:00 PM »
NSIDC Peripheral Seas Ice area - - just because the first table table shows zero minimum ice (even though this is extremely unlikely)

NSIDC PERIPHERAL ARCTIC SEAS - ICE AREA:  2,371,091 KM2 as at 21-May-2020

- Area loss on this day 39k, 6 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 33k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,380 k, 496 k, 26.4% more than the 10 year average of 1,884 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -91 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is  146 k MORE than 2016
______________________________-
On average 43.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 110 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 0.00 million km2, 0.08 million km2 below the 2018 minimum of 0.08 million km2.
________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #680 on: May 22, 2020, 10:06:45 PM »
& to complete the set...[

NSIDC HIGH ARCTIC SEAS - ICE AREA:  7,894,504 KM2 as at 21-May-2020

- Area loss on this day 47k, 21 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 863 k, 280 k, 47.4% more than the 10 year average of 584 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  26 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  77 k MORE than 2016
______________________________-
On average 11.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 116 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 2.69 million km2, 0.62 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 2.07 million km2.
________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #681 on: May 23, 2020, 05:49:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 22nd, 2020:
     11,131,215 km2, a drop of -83,231 km2.
     2020 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: May 23, 2020, 06:42:45 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #682 on: May 23, 2020, 07:43:58 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,131,215 KM2 as at 22-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 83k, -40 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,316 k, 636 k, 23.7% more than the 10 year average of 2,681 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -41 k LESS than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 26.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 115 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.86 million km2, 0.68 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #683 on: May 23, 2020, 03:31:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,160,702 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,160,702    km2      
-458,979    km2   <   2010's average.
-108,116    km2   <   2019
-905,323    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -105    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -52    k   loss
Central Seas___   -53    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -27    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss
CAA_________   -4    k   loss
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -13    k   loss
Laptev_______   -10    k   loss
Kara_________   -17    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 105 k, -41 k more than the 2010's average loss of 64 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 459 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 905 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 180 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is -108 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
I am used to commenting on how one or two seas in part of the Arctic are behaving. It is unusual in my experience to see the ice disappearing just about everywhere.

It is important to remember that the NSIDC Sea Ice Area data is the 5-day trailing average. So the 105k sea ice area loss is the average of the last 5 days - over half a million km2 of sea ice area gone in the last 5 days. This also means that as 105k is greater than in the previous 4 days, the 5-day daily area loss will stay high for the following 2-3 days even if the one-day loss slows.

_____________________________________________
ps: I'm feeling smug - I wrote the following sentence on the 11th May...
Watch this space for the unfolding of the Great 2020 Mid-May Melting Event ?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg263728.html#msg263728
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #684 on: May 23, 2020, 04:35:45 PM »
When the data starts to head towards zero, spreadsheets start to break down. This is true for my spreadsheet that looks at sea ice area in the Peripheral Arctic Seas. Nevertheless, these spreadsheets have  a value - in this case showing that the peripheral seas are, even by early summer, essentially open water seas.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #685 on: May 24, 2020, 05:49:19 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 23rd, 2020:
     11,085,705 km2, a drop of -45,510 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #686 on: May 24, 2020, 12:48:34 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,085,705 KM2 as at 23-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 46k, 2 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 48k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,362 k, 633 k, 23.2% more than the 10 year average of 2,729 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -62 k LESS than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 27.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 114 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.86 million km2, 0.69 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Despite the slightly lower than average daily extent loss on this day, I see nothing but the probability of above average daily extent and area losses during the next 5 to 10 days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #687 on: May 24, 2020, 03:18:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,050,116 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,050,116    km2      
-507,742    km2   <   2010's average.
-150,790    km2   <   2019
-946,377    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -111    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -45    k   loss
Central Seas___   -66    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______   -10    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -15    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss
CAA_________   -5    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -17    k   loss
Laptev_______   -24    k   loss
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 111 k, -49 k more than the 2010's average loss of 62 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 508 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 946 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 140 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is -151 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
This rate of daily sea ice area loss usually starts in mid-June.
Note that the rate of melt is now greater in the Central Seas
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #688 on: May 25, 2020, 05:41:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 24th, 2020:
     11,051,320 km2, a drop of -34,385 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #689 on: May 25, 2020, 08:09:13 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,051,320 KM2 as at 24-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 34k, 24 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,396 k, 610 k, 21.9% more than the 10 year average of 2,786 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -54 k LESS than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 28.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 113 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.89 million km2, 0.71 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
A 2nd day of below average extent loss, but temperature anomalies of between +2.5 & +3.5 still suggest the probability of above average extent loss in the 5-10 days to come.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #690 on: May 25, 2020, 03:14:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 24-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,932,382 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,932,382    km2      
-560,329    km2   <   2010's average.
-208,080    km2   <   2019
-999,807    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -118    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -50    k   loss
Central Seas___   -68    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -17    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -9    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss
CAA_________   -6    k   loss
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -22    k   loss
Laptev_______   -18    k   loss
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 118 k, -53 k more than the 2010's average loss of 65 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 560 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1000 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 95 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is -208 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         

Is the sensor being fooled - e.g. by melt ponds? If so, it is very persistent and widespread
Sea ice area loss greater in the High Arctic Seas than in the Peripheral Seas for the 4th day in a row.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #691 on: May 25, 2020, 03:23:03 PM »
Sea Ice Area in the 7 central seas of the High Arctic now LOWEST in the satellite record (just).

Sea ice area of the Central Arctic Sea (aka CAB) down from highest (#42) on April 16 to 5th lowest on 4th May.

Sea ice area of the 7 Peripheral seas (only) 2nd lowest.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #692 on: May 25, 2020, 03:35:21 PM »
Peripheral Seas Area projections


Sea ice area @ 24th May                                                2.22 million km2.
Average area loss from now to minimum (last 10 years)    2.36 million km2.

i.e. maximum sea ice area loss from now MUST be lower than average.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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marcel_g

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #693 on: May 25, 2020, 07:43:18 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,050,116 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,050,116    km2      
-507,742    km2   <   2010's average.
-150,790    km2   <   2019
-946,377    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -111    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -45    k   loss
Central Seas___   -66    k   loss
   
Wow, a century area loss 2 days in a row. Seems like a steeper than normal curve.

Edit: wait, I kept reading, and it's 3 centuries in a row! wow.[/td][/tr][/table]

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #694 on: May 26, 2020, 06:36:33 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 25th, 2020:
     11,026,103 km2, a drop of only -25,217 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S:
Sea ice area loss on this day 118 k, -53 k more than the 2010's average loss of 65 k         
...
___________________________________________         
Is the sensor being fooled - e.g. by melt ponds? If so, it is very persistent and widespread
Sea ice area loss greater in the High Arctic Seas than in the Peripheral Seas for the 4th day in a row.

So, The action is in NSIDC area, as it is posted by Gerontocrat.
Still, 2020 is 2nd lowest on JAXA extent and it is a different sensor.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2020, 06:55:39 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #695 on: May 26, 2020, 11:48:04 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,026,103 KM2 as at 25-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 25k, 31 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 56k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,422 k, 579 k, 20.4% more than the 10 year average of 2,842 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -56 k LESS than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 28.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 112 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.92 million km2, 0.74 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
A third day of below average sea ice extent loss while sea ice area drops like a stone.
But based on the GFS weather forecasts I still say extent has gotta play catch up sooner rather than later.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

weatherdude88

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #696 on: May 26, 2020, 03:23:48 PM »
For 5.25.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 11.94 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 9,000 square kilometers from the previous day.

NSIDC sea ice extent is in 5th place for the date. 2020 now has more sea ice extent than 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2019 for the date.

Over the past 4 days, NSIDC sea ice extent has decreased a total of 18,000 square kilometers.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #697 on: May 26, 2020, 03:31:41 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,849,016 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,849,016    km2      
-580,578    km2   <   2010's average.
-232,544    km2   <   2019
-1,014,532    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -83    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -27    k   loss
Central Seas___   -56    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss
CAA_________   -5    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -18    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 83 k, -20 k more than the 2010's average loss of 63 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 581 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1015 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 87 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is -233 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
For the 5-day average sea ice area loss to drop by 34k means the one-day sea ice area loss on this day must be minimal. Is the next instalment to come another swap, extent loss galloping ahead while area loss slows to a crawl?
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weatherdude88

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #698 on: May 26, 2020, 04:14:39 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,849,016 KM2         

Total Change   -83    k   loss
      
For the 5-day average sea ice area loss to drop by 34k means the one-day sea ice area loss on this day must be minimal. Is the next instalment to come another swap, extent loss galloping ahead while area loss slows to a crawl?

NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area raw daily values show the following losses VS. the previous day:

5.21.2020 29,394 square kilometers
5.22.2020 177,901 square kilometers
5.23.2020 116,908 square kilometers
5.24.2020 159,348 square kilometers

The four-day average shows a loss of 120,888 square kilometers of sea ice area per day.

The 5.25 value should show a significant gain in sea ice area VS. the previous day, when the single daily value data set updates.

We may be at a start of a sensor correction for NSIDC sea ice area data.



Phoenix

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #699 on: May 26, 2020, 04:24:28 PM »
      
For the 5-day average sea ice area loss to drop by 34k means the one-day sea ice area loss on this day must be minimal. Is the next instalment to come another swap, extent loss galloping ahead while area loss slows to a crawl?

Hudson went really cold and probably had a refreeze. 5 day average went from -17k to +2k. That's the biggest part of it.