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weatherdude88

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #700 on: May 26, 2020, 07:24:34 PM »
For 5.25.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 9.736833 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 65,683 square kilometers from the previous day.

For 5.25, this is also the largest single daily increase of NSIDC sea ice area on record.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #701 on: May 27, 2020, 05:45:01 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 26th, 2020:
     11,017,755 km2, a drop of only -8,348 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #702 on: May 27, 2020, 10:32:30 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,017,755 KM2 as at 26-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 8k, 35 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,430 k, 544 k, 18.9% more than the 10 year average of 2,886 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -46 k LESS than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 29.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 111 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.95 million km2, 0.78 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
It's as if the Arctic sea ice hasn't noticed how warm it is up there.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #703 on: May 27, 2020, 03:22:25 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 26-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,765,860 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,765,860    km2      
-593,490    km2   <   2010's average.
-253,355    km2   <   2019
-1,026,468    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -83    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -34    k   loss
Central Seas___   -49    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -7    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -10    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -9    k   loss
CAA_________   -4    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -16    k   loss
Laptev_______   -10    k   loss
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 83 k, -13 k more than the 2010's average loss of 70 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 593 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1026 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 85 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is -253 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
The NSIDC daily extent dropped by 166k on this day. Perhaps the slowdown in extent sea ice loss is over, especially given many predictions of mayhem in the melting thread, and it must be said, quite an awesome 5 day forecast from GFS.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #704 on: May 27, 2020, 06:10:35 PM »
Bering Sea: Great losses of 10% of the ice area every day since May 20th.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

weatherdude88

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #705 on: May 27, 2020, 09:43:02 PM »
For 5.26.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 9.699547 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 37,387 square kilometers from the previous day.

For 5.26, the daily value is 22,453 square kilometers more than the 5.24 value.

Even with average losses over the next 3 days, the NSIDC 5 day trailing sea ice area metric will show losses significantly below average.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #706 on: May 28, 2020, 05:58:12 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 27th, 2020:
     10,993,348 km2, a drop of -24,407 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #707 on: May 28, 2020, 10:08:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,993,348 KM2 as at 27-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 24k, 23 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 47k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,454 k, 521 k, 17.8% more than the 10 year average of 2,933 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -19 k LESS than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 29.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 110 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.98 million km2, 0.80 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Another well below average extent loss despite very warm temperatures over much of the Arctic yesterday.  I revert to normal mode - i.e. confused. Will the NSIDC data later today confuse me even more?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #708 on: May 28, 2020, 03:16:31 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 27-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,696,195 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,696,195    km2      
-593,502    km2   <   2010's average.
-270,055    km2   <   2019
-1,033,909    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -70    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -34    k   loss
Central Seas___   -36    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -10    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________   -5    k   loss
East Siberian__   -7    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -14    k   loss
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Kara_________    3    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 70 k, 0 k less than the 2010's average loss of 70 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 594 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1034 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 81 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 270 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #709 on: May 28, 2020, 04:51:57 PM »
NSIDC HIGH ARCTIC SEAS - ICE AREA:  7,567,736 KM2 as at 27-May-2020

- Area loss on this day 36k, 2 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 34k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,190 k, 418 k, 54.2% more than the 10 year average of 772 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -73 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is  -29 k LESS than 2016
______________________________-
On average 15.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 110 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 2.55 million km2, 0.48 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 2.07 million km2.
________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #710 on: May 29, 2020, 05:53:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 28th, 2020:
     10,958,548 km2, a drop of -34,800 km2.
     2020 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #711 on: May 29, 2020, 01:28:43 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,958,548 KM2 as at 28-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 35k, 11 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 46k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,489 k, 510 k, 17.1% more than the 10 year average of 2,979 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  17 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 29.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 109 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.99 million km2, 0.81 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
A modest increase in daily extent loss but still below average. Will May end with a flourish or a whimper?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #712 on: May 29, 2020, 03:13:59 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 28-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,652,338 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,652,338    km2      
-570,047    km2   <   2010's average.
-254,704    km2   <   2019
-1,022,681    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -44    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -33    k   loss
Central Seas___   -11    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -13    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 44 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average loss of 67 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 570 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1023 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 85 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 255 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
Big drop in sea ice area loss while extent loss up a bit.
Sea ice loss in the Central Arctic Sea halts.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #713 on: May 30, 2020, 05:47:28 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 29th, 2020:
     10,934,088 km2, a drop of -24,460 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #714 on: May 30, 2020, 11:13:52 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,934,088 KM2 as at 29-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 24k, 19 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,514 k, 491 k, 16.3% more than the 10 year average of 3,022 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  55 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 30.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 108 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.01 million km2, 0.83 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
May ends with a whimper
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #715 on: May 30, 2020, 03:20:20 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 29-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,648,400 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,648,400    km2      
-510,841    km2   <   2010's average.
-196,804    km2   <   2019
-971,699    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -4    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -11    k   loss
Central Seas___    8    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -20    k   loss
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 4 k, 59 k less than the 2010's average loss of 63 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 511 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 972 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 134 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 197 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
Area loss screeches to a halt; extent loss keeps on truckin'.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #716 on: May 31, 2020, 07:49:53 AM »
JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent - the top 17 list as of May 30. 2020 is #3 in the list.
All values in M km²
2016 - 10.48
2019 - 10.83
2020 - 10.88
2018 - 10.92
2015 - 10.94
(2010s 11.17)
2011 - 11.24
2006 - 11.26
2017 - 11.28
2014 - 11.47
2007 - 11.51
2012 - 11.52
2004 - 11.55
2005 - 11.56
2008 - 11.66
2009 - 11.68
1995 - 11.69
(2000s 11.72)
2013 - 11.74
Five out of the last six years are #1 to # 5 in the ranking list.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #717 on: May 31, 2020, 09:55:13 AM »
Sorry to be late. Thank you, Stephan.  :)
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 30th, 2020:
     10,882,933 km2, a drop of -51,155 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #718 on: May 31, 2020, 11:39:36 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,882,933 KM2 as at 30-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 51k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,565 k, 489 k, 15.9% more than the 10 year average of 3,076 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  402 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  50 k MORE than 2019,
_____________________________________________
On average 30.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 107 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.01 million km2, 0.83 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
A modest increase in daily sea ice extent loss,but still (just) below average.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #719 on: May 31, 2020, 03:25:19 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,625,331 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,625,331    km2      
-470,981    km2   <   2010's average.
-160,497    km2   <   2019
-936,402    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -23    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -27    k   loss
Central Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -19    k   loss
Central Arctic_    14    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 23 k, 40 k less than the 2010's average loss of 63 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 471 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 936 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 174 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 160 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
A modest increase in sea ice area loss, while extent loss accelerates.

But starting the coming Tuesday afternoon warmth spreads north in Central Canada, starting with the Hudson and reaching the Central Canadian Arctic shore by the weekend, with Southern Greenland perhaps getting very warm on occasion. This is in addition to the Siberian heat and above zero temperatures over much of the Arctic Ocean continuing.

I predict a lot of sea ice reduced to liquid. Flaming June?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #720 on: May 31, 2020, 05:04:42 PM »
Bering Sea Ice loss still impressive - although there is not much left. Since May 20 around 10% of the remaining sea ice are is lost every single day.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #721 on: June 01, 2020, 05:48:29 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 31st, 2020:
     10,834,476 km2, a drop of -48,457 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #722 on: June 01, 2020, 11:11:44 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,834,476 KM2 as at 31-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 48k, 12 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 60k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,613 k, 477 k, 15.2% more than the 10 year average of 3,136 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  407 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  66 k MORE than 2019,
_____________________________________________
On average 31.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 106 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.02 million km2, 0.84 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Another day of below average sea ice extent loss.

Overall, May saw above average extent loss, with the May monthly average extent below the linear trend.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2020, 02:12:38 PM by gerontocrat »
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Phoenix

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #723 on: June 01, 2020, 12:24:37 PM »
May is over !! Only 7 months left of this weird year  :D

I have a question. 3.61M km2 extent loss to date appears to be the highest on your chart which begins in 2007. Is this a season to date record through May ??

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #724 on: June 01, 2020, 03:11:26 PM »
May is over !! Only 7 months left of this weird year  :D

I have a question. 3.61M km2 extent loss to date appears to be the highest on your chart which begins in 2007. Is this a season to date record through May ??
Yes, apart from 1990 -  loss from maximum 3,791,907 km2 .
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #725 on: June 01, 2020, 03:53:25 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 31-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,626,182 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,626,182    km2      
-415,015    km2   <   2010's average.
-99,731    km2   <   2019
-883,055    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    1    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -19    k   loss
Central Seas___    20    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -12    k   loss
Central Arctic_    19    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________    4    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day -1 k, 56 k less than the 2010's average loss of 55 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 415 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 883 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 225 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 100 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
May bows out with a whimper.
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weatherdude88

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #726 on: June 01, 2020, 07:39:15 PM »
2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.                  
- 2020 Area is 225 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 100 k less than 2019
         

Another significant increase in the daily northern hemisphere NSIDC sea ice area value. 2020 now has more sea ice area than 2019 for the date.



The 5.31.2020 value is now 26,753 square kilometers of sea ice area more than the 5.24.2020 value.

With average NSIDC sea ice area losses, the trailing 5-day average will show 2019 zoom past 2020 within the next 4 days.

This is also the 2nd daily record gain in NSIDC sea ice area, in the last 7 days (5.25 & 5.31).
« Last Edit: June 01, 2020, 08:12:01 PM by weatherdude88 »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #727 on: June 01, 2020, 08:22:59 PM »
NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,552,886 KM2 as at 31-May-2020 (5 day trailing average)

- Extent loss on this day 57k, 13 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 44k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,331 k, 629 k, (23.3%) more than the 10 year average of 2,702 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  392 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  32 k LESS than 2019,
_____________________________________________
On average 26.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 106 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC-EXTENT-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.09 million km2, 0.70 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.39 million km2.
______________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #728 on: June 01, 2020, 08:34:12 PM »
NSIDC Extent (5 day trailing average) May monthly average just below linear trend.
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VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #729 on: June 01, 2020, 09:40:14 PM »
<It looks to me as a typo and should be:>
2020 Area is 3rd smallest after 2016 and 2019
2020 Area is 225 k more than 2016         
2020 Area is 100 k more than 2019

2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.                  
- 2020 Area is 225 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 100 k less than 2019
         

Another significant increase in the daily northern hemisphere NSIDC sea ice area value. 2020 now has more sea ice area than 2019 for the date.



The 5.31.2020 value is now 26,753 square kilometers of sea ice area more than the 5.24.2020 value.

With average NSIDC sea ice area losses, the trailing 5-day average will show 2019 zoom past 2020 within the next 4 days.

This is also the 2nd daily record gain in NSIDC sea ice area, in the last 7 days (5.25 & 5.31).

oren

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #730 on: June 01, 2020, 09:45:37 PM »
Gerontocrat normally uses the more appropriate 5-day average data from NSIDC.
Weatherdude88 uses 1-day data (when it suits his agenda of gains and recoveries).

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #731 on: June 02, 2020, 02:47:08 AM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation.

As of May 31st, extent is 10,834,476 km2. With on average 105 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -93,662 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

Total extent loss so far this season is -3,613,165 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -40,597 km2. Since the year 2007, this is the 4th highest average daily loss from maximum to April 30th (2007-2020). (See Attachment 2).

Total extent loss from maximum is 1st highest on record since 2007, knocking 2016 from lead in this metric. (See Attachment 3).

Looking only at the month of May, 2020 lost -1,792,544 km2, nearly 200,000 km2 more than the 2007-2019 average. This is the 2nd largest loss since 2007, behind only 2010. (See Attachment 4).
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Ktb

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #732 on: June 02, 2020, 02:50:43 AM »
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from June 1st to their respective minimums. (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From June 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement is the 6th lowest value, of which 2016 is the leader. (See attachment 2).
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #733 on: June 02, 2020, 06:03:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 1st, 2020:
     10,805,937 km2, a drop of -28,539 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. From June 4th to June 13th,  the ASI on 2012 dropped 1,130K km2, an average of -126K km2 on 9 days.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

binntho

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #734 on: June 02, 2020, 07:12:53 AM »

Another significant increase in the daily northern hemisphere NSIDC sea ice area value. 2020 now has more sea ice area than 2019 for the date.



This looks very suspicious to me, that black line taking off like that. I would assume that this was an errror in the data unless proven otherwise.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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oren

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #735 on: June 02, 2020, 12:41:30 PM »
No mystery here. The NSIDC algorithm can see wet ice or melt ponds as loss of area, thus local surface freezing or snow can increase concentration. Besides, there is a reason why they use 5-day averaging - the data is known to be noisy. In general, I would appreciate if posters don't feed into wd88's posts.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #736 on: June 02, 2020, 01:32:35 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,805,937 KM2 as at 01-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 29k, 30 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 59k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,642 k, 447 k, 14.0% more than the 10 year average of 3,195 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  401 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  135 k MORE than 2019,
_____________________________________________
On average 32.1% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 105 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.05 million km2, 0.87 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Yet another day of below average extent losses
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #737 on: June 02, 2020, 03:20:28 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 01-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,662,025 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,662,025    km2      
-321,531    km2   <   2010's average.
 5,190    km2   >   2019
-796,149    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    36    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -4    k   loss
Central Seas___    40    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
Beaufort_____    10    k   gain
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    26    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Kara_________    3    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss GAIN on this day 36 k, 94 k MORE than the 2010's average LOSS of 58 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 322 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 796 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 308 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 5 k more than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
A sea ice area daily gain of this size at this time of year is likely to be a record-breaker.
Edit: which it is at least since 2002 - no other year on this day had a  sea ice area gain/i]
« Last Edit: June 02, 2020, 03:31:14 PM by gerontocrat »
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The Walrus

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #738 on: June 02, 2020, 03:31:31 PM »
No mystery here. The NSIDC algorithm can see wet ice or melt ponds as loss of area, thus local surface freezing or snow can increase concentration. Besides, there is a reason why they use 5-day averaging - the data is known to be noisy. In general, I would appreciate if posters don't feed into wd88's posts.

That is one of the main advantages to using extent instead of area - less noise.

weatherdude88

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #739 on: June 02, 2020, 07:50:49 PM »
Gerontocrat normally uses the more appropriate 5-day average data from NSIDC.
Weatherdude88 uses 1-day data (when it suits his agenda of gains and recoveries).

A sea ice area daily gain of this size at this time of year is likely to be a record-breaker.

The one day data sets give invaluable where the trailing 5-day average is headed. Especially if there are varying considerable 1-day values about to drop off the 5 day trailing mean.

We are able to see the trailing 5-day average has had 2 consecutive days of sea ice area gains in prime sea ice melt season. The significant change in the 5-day trailing mean was inevitable given the substantial sea ice loss daily values dropping off combined with the record gains in the most recent daily values.

Additionally, there are other member that post different 1-day sea ice data values.

No agenda, just raw data.   

Phoenix

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #740 on: June 02, 2020, 08:18:19 PM »
I appreciate the raw data. Last year when the area losses took off in June, Neven provided the information letting us know we had two days in a row of 200K+ area losses.

When we see unusual anomalies in the 5 day average, there is a natural curiosity about the daily number.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #741 on: June 03, 2020, 06:12:44 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 2nd, 2020:
     10,765,593 km2, a drop of -40,344 km2.
     2020 is now 4th lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. From June 4th to June 13th,  the ASI on 2012 dropped 1,130K km2, an average of -126K km2 on 9 days.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #742 on: June 03, 2020, 12:22:42 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,765,593 KM2 as at 02-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 40k, 18 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,682 k, 429 k, 13.2% more than the 10 year average of 3,253 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  391 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  172 k MORE than 2019,
- Extent is  29 k MORE than 2018,
_____________________________________________
On average 32.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 104 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.07 million km2, 0.89 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

Note:- the massive melt of 2012 distorts (exaggerates?) that 10 year average remaining melt by around 200k. (see plume graph)
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #743 on: June 03, 2020, 03:54:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 02-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,696,076 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,696,076    km2      
-220,600    km2   <   2010's average.
 104,219    km2   >   2019
-705,589    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    34    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    1    k   gain
Central Seas___    33    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    10    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    22    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Kara_________    2    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss gain on this day 34 k, 101 k more than the 2010's average loss of 67 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 221 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 706 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 415 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 104 k more than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
Another record-breaking daily sea ice area GAIN; total area gone back to 28th May
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #744 on: June 03, 2020, 04:05:26 PM »
Table to show recent unusual recent NSIDC sea ice area daily change.... (5 day trailing average data)
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weatherdude88

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #745 on: June 03, 2020, 08:01:13 PM »
For 6.2.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 9.775282 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 4,964 square kilometers from the previous day.

For 6.2.2020, the daily value is 98,188 square kilometers more than the 5.24.2020 value (10 days).

The change from the previous daily value, over the past five days are as follows:

+43,574 (5.29)
-35,428 (5.30)
+86,619 (5.31)
+53,058 (6.1)
+4,964 (6.2)

Four out of the past 5 daily values have recorded an increase compared with the previous day.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #746 on: June 04, 2020, 06:19:44 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 3rd, 2020:
     10,731,898 km2, a drop of -33,695 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. From June 4th to June 13th,  the ASI on 2012 dropped 1,130K km2, an average of -126K km2 on 9 days.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Phoenix

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #747 on: June 04, 2020, 09:55:29 AM »
It looks like we have exceeded the daily average SIE loss just once in the last 12 days.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #748 on: June 04, 2020, 12:04:43 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,731,898 KM2 as at 03-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 34k, 7 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,716 k, 421 k, 12.8% more than the 10 year average of 3,294 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  173 k MORE than 2019,
- Extent is  381 k MORE than 2016,
______________________________-
On average 33.1% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 103 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.08 million km2, 0.90 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
& yet another lower than average daily sea ice extent loss
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #749 on: June 04, 2020, 03:19:05 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 03-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,711,019 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,711,019    km2      
-136,295    km2   <   2010's average.
 175,803    km2   >   2019
-622,946    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    15    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -10    k   loss
Central Seas___    25    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    13    k   gain
Central Arctic_    16    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss gain on this day 15 k, 84 k more than the 2010's average loss of 69 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 136 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 623 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 505 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 176 k more than 2019
         
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And yet another record breaking daily sea ice area gain (but a bit less) when losses are the norm.

Maybe the data is on the turn - maybe
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)