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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #800 on: June 16, 2020, 05:48:27 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 15th, 2020:
     10,029,135 km2, a drop of -64,414 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Ktb

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #801 on: June 16, 2020, 06:35:42 AM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation - Mid monthly so no BOE comparison to other years

June 15th extent was 10,029,135 km2. With on average 90 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -100,324 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).
Just as an aside: From June 1st to its' respective minimum, 2012 dropped on average -76,535 km2. From July 1st to the minimum, 2012 dropped on average -73,894 km2. To anybody holding out hope for a BOE we need to be dropping ~33% more per day than the record year.

Total extent loss thus far in June 2020 was -805,341 km2. And total extent loss so far this season is -4,418,506 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily melt rate of -42,486 km2. If the month of June ended today, this would be the 6th slowest rate of melt for the same period for the years 2007-2020. (See Attachment 2).

Looking only at the month of June thus far, we have averaged -53,689 km2 per day. If the month of June ended today, this average daily drop places June 2020 as 11th out of 14 (2007-2020) in average daily June melt, ahead of only 2015, 2016, and 2018. (See Attachment 3).


There is so much heat coming into the Russian side of the arctic. I'll be shocked if the 2nd half of June doesn't do something spectacular.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #802 on: June 16, 2020, 09:26:31 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,029,135 KM2 as at 15-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 64k, 4 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 60k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,419 k, 459 k, 11.6% more than the 10 year average of 3,959 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -158 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  36 k MORE than 2016,
______________________________-
On average 39.8% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 91 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.04 million km2, 0.86 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
An uptick in the daily extent loss to just above average.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #803 on: June 16, 2020, 03:29:00 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 8,799,793 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 8,799,793    km2      
-22,739    km2   <   2010's average.
 289,130    km2   >   2019
-711,190    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -136    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -42    k   loss
Central Seas___   -94    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -24    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -16    k   loss
CAA_________   -11    k   loss
East Siberian__   -25    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______   -18    k   loss
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 136 k, 18 k more than the 2010's average loss of 118 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 23 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 711 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 302 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 289 k more than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #804 on: June 16, 2020, 03:43:21 PM »
Some graphs showing that as the season progresses,
- the variation in sea ice area in the peripheral seas between years declines,
- attention switches to the High Arctic.

Caveat- The Greenland Sea is a peripheral sea. But a substantial export of ice from the Central Arctic into the Greenland sea ia the Fram Strait, especially late in the season, would greatly increase the final sea ice area of the Greenland sea giving a false idea of the overall state of Arctic sea ice.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #805 on: June 17, 2020, 06:42:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 16th, 2020:
     9,954,585 km2, a drop of -74,550 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #806 on: June 17, 2020, 11:24:54 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,954,585 KM2 as at 16-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 75k, 7 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 68k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,493 k, 466 k, 11.6% more than the 10 year average of 4,027 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -194 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  23 k MORE than 2016,
______________________________-
On average 40.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 90 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.03 million km2, 0.85 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Just for variety, the last table attached shows the daily sea ice extent changes for the remainder of June for the 4 years 2007. 2012, 2016 & 2019, plus the 10 year average & 2020 to date.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #807 on: June 17, 2020, 04:02:12 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 16-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 8,631,924 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 8,631,924    km2      
-70,600    km2   <   2010's average.
 243,276    km2   >   2019
-774,032    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -168    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -38    k   loss
Central Seas___   -130    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -25    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -15    k   loss
CAA_________   -13    k   loss
East Siberian__   -42    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -14    k   loss
Laptev_______   -24    k   loss
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 168 k, 48 k more than the 2010's average loss of 120 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 71 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 774 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 198 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 243 k more than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
With sea ice area being the leading indicator of melt, (sea ice extent the lagging indicator), this somewhat large area loss does not bode well for extent, (one-day NSIDC daily extent fell by 127k on this day).

Given not much comment on the melting thread about storms & high winds, this area loss seems more to do with melt ponding & general disintegration of the ice in situ - i.e. from heat & insolation.

And note gain the extreme contrast between area losses in the Peripheral Seas - still just below average, and sea ice area losses in the High Arctic Seas - now 50k above average.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Phoenix

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #808 on: June 17, 2020, 04:35:20 PM »

Total Change   -168    k   loss


Wow.  :o The daily area loss must have been close to 300k. Is there a record somewhere for biggest daily advance ??

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #809 on: June 17, 2020, 05:50:57 PM »

Total Change   -168    k   loss


Wow.  :o The daily area loss must have been close to 300k. Is there a record somewhere for biggest daily advance ??
168k was #1 for this day - not usual but not rare at this time.

Max extent loss = 198k 2nd July 2003 (N.B. 5 - day average - hence not in the 300k+ slot)
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dnem

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #810 on: June 17, 2020, 06:03:07 PM »
I think Phoenix was saying the one day loss would have been around 300 (actually it would be 296) to jump the 5-day average from -136 yesterday to -168 today.

Phoenix

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #811 on: June 17, 2020, 06:12:22 PM »
I think Phoenix was saying the one day loss would have been around 300 (actually it would be 296) to jump the 5-day average from -136 yesterday to -168 today.

That's correct dnem, regarding what I was trying to say. 296k sounds about right.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #812 on: June 17, 2020, 06:22:16 PM »
I think Phoenix was saying the one day loss would have been around 300 (actually it would be 296) to jump the 5-day average from -136 yesterday to -168 today.
Yes, but the NSIDC don't put up a data file with daily area data @ ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/

And NSIDC know that daily area data is very prone to error, and 5-day averages smooth most of that away.

I also think NSIDC re-evaluate the current year's data sometime in the following year so I keep the previous 2 years open to pick up any late changes. Not an exact science -melt ponds & artefacts can screw up all the sensors..
« Last Edit: June 18, 2020, 11:00:29 AM by gerontocrat »
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #813 on: June 18, 2020, 06:22:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 17th, 2020:
     9,890,426 km2, a drop of -64,159 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #814 on: June 18, 2020, 10:54:48 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,890,426 KM2 as at 17-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 64k, 7 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 57k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,557 k, 474 k, 11.6% more than the 10 year average of 4,084 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -215 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  20 k MORE than 2016,
______________________________-
On average 41.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 89 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.02 million km2, 0.85 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #815 on: June 18, 2020, 03:12:39 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 17-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 8,438,992 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 8,438,992    km2      
-158,030    km2   <   2010's average.
 152,779    km2   >   2019
-854,416    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -193    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -42    k   loss
Central Seas___   -151    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -26    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -17    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -20    k   loss
CAA_________   -18    k   loss
East Siberian__   -51    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______   -16    k   loss
Kara_________   -18    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 193 k, 87 k more than the 2010's average loss of 106 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 158 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 854 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 93 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 153 k more than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
Is this area loss more to do with melt ponding & general disintegration of the ice in situ - i.e. from heat & insolation? Even if much is down to melt ponds, it surely indicates what a rotten state the ice is in.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #816 on: June 18, 2020, 09:11:15 PM »
It looks like ESS is taking the lead of the central seas and Hudson now is the front runner for the peripherical seas.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #817 on: June 19, 2020, 06:42:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 18th, 2020:
     9,841,792 km2, a drop of -48,634 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #818 on: June 19, 2020, 11:38:59 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,841,792 KM2 as at 18-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 49k, 7 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 56k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,606 k, 466 k, 11.3% more than the 10 year average of 4,140 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -195 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  45 k MORE than 2016,
______________________________-
On average 41.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 88 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.03 million km2, 0.85 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #819 on: June 19, 2020, 03:12:54 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 8,257,494 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 8,257,494    km2      
-233,764    km2   <   2010's average.
 55,260    km2   >   2019
-919,748    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -181    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -37    k   loss
Central Seas___   -144    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -23    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -22    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -29    k   loss
CAA_________   -20    k   loss
East Siberian__   -40    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -18    k   loss
Kara_________   -14    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 181 k, 75 k more than the 2010's average loss of 106 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 234 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 920 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 10 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 55 k more than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
Area loss just over 1 million km2 in just 7 days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #820 on: June 19, 2020, 04:01:35 PM »
The recent losses in sea ice area have ben concentrated in the 7 central seas of the High Arctic, so here is...
NSIDC - HIGH ARCTIC Area Analysis in Jaxa Format :-  N.B. 5 Day Trailing Average
ICE AREA:  6,676,638 KM2 as at 18-Jun-2020

- Area loss on this day 144k, 85 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 59k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,081 k, 340 k, 19.5% more than the 10 year average of 1,741 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  47 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  -150 k LESS than 2016
______________________________-
On average 43.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 88 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC-HIGH_ARCTIC-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 2.63 million km2, 0.56 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 2.07 million km2.
________________________________________________________
The area losses in the High Arctic have been nothing less than spectacular in the last week, but even so have only been sufficient to turn 2020 from a slow year to a contender.

However, if GFS is to be believed, we have at least another 5 days, and perhaps a good many more days, of very high Arctic temperatures.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #821 on: June 19, 2020, 04:16:59 PM »
Evaluation Arctic Sea Ice Area - "relative area wise" June 6 - June 18, 2020.

CAB -2%, melting has not really started

Okhotsk, Bering, St Lawrence, almost fully melted; evaluation not useful.

Grønland -9%, difficult to evaluate as it constantly gets new ice through Fram Strait.
_____
The other seas:
Chukchi  -14%
Beaufort -17%
CAA       -19%
Baffin     -21%
Hudson   -22%
ESS        -23%
Laptev    -25%
Kara       -28%
Barents  -35%

The Canadian/Alaskian side is slower than the Russian side.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #822 on: June 19, 2020, 05:05:53 PM »
Area Graphs for the High Arctic Seas from NSIDC Data

Chukchi - after a late start area at 2010's average.
Beaufort - also a late start & area well above 2010's averge.
CAA - also late start at close to 2010's average and about to hit the elbow (someone remind me why this happens?)
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #823 on: June 19, 2020, 05:18:02 PM »
Area Graphs for the High Arctic Seas from NSIDC Data - continued

Kara Sea - slowed a bit after a spectacular early start. Western Siberia might be even a bit chilly in the next week or two (GFS outlook), in contrast with extreme heat in the Central & Eastern Siberian shores. Maybe Kara will be late in fully opening the Northern (Russian) Sea Route.

Laptev - falling to bits,
ESS - ditto.

Central Arctic Sea (NSIDC area - sort of North of 80 Area). So far matching 2019's very slow start. Seems largely due to ice drift to the Barents & Greenland Sea with the Laptev bite not yet up to 80 North. Note that 2019 overall area managed a 2nd lowest minimum although not in this sea.



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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #824 on: June 19, 2020, 06:31:32 PM »
Area Graphs for the High Arctic Seas from NSIDC Data

Chukchi - after a late start area at 2010's average.
Beaufort - also a late start & area well above 2010's averge.
CAA - also late start at close to 2010's average and about to hit the elbow (someone remind me why this happens?)

Two distinct areas of melt with very different timing?

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #825 on: June 19, 2020, 09:10:50 PM »
AFAIK the CAA "elbow" is due to melt ponds draining. Initial area loss is due to water on the ice, not "real" loss, final area loss is only after the fast ice has broken and actually melted.
The same happens in other places with fast ice (parts of Laptev, ESS, Nares, next to Barrow), probably because fast ice has better capacity to hold melt water.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #826 on: June 20, 2020, 06:30:19 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 19th, 2020:
     9,803,776 km2, a drop of -38,016 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #827 on: June 20, 2020, 10:29:50 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,803,776 KM2 as at 19-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 38k, 25 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 63k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,644 k, 442 k, 10.5% more than the 10 year average of 4,202 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -169 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  73 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  98 k LESS than 2012
______________________________-
On average 42.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 87 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.06 million km2, 0.88 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
A very much below average sea ice extent loss on this day
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #828 on: June 20, 2020, 03:48:16 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 8,092,960 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 8,092,960    km2      
-297,798    km2   <   2010's average.
-43,564    km2   <   2019
-981,820    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -165    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -25    k   loss
Central Seas___   -140    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -14    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -24    k   loss
CAA_________   -33    k   loss
East Siberian__   -35    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -19    k   loss
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 165 k, 64 k more than the 2010's average loss of 101 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 298 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 982 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 59 k less than 2016
- 2020 Area is 220 k more than 2012         
- 2020 Area is 44 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #829 on: June 20, 2020, 10:28:32 PM »
Herewith NSIDC Total Arctic Sea Ice Area analysed as for JAXA extent data.

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA:  8,092,960 KM2 as at 19-Jun-2020

- Area loss on this day 165k, 64 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 101k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 5,270 k, 451 k, 09.4% more than the 10 year average of 4,819 k.
- Area is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Area is  -44 k LESS than 2019
- Area is  -59 k LESS than 2016
- Area is  220 k MORE than 2012
______________________________
On average 47.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 87 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 2.73 million km2, 0.48 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 2.25 million km2.
________________________________________________________
The large sea ice area losses mainly concentrated in the 7 seas of the High Arctic plus high Arctic temperatures continuing suggest that just maybe 2020 may be a contender
« Last Edit: June 20, 2020, 11:00:55 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #830 on: June 20, 2020, 10:53:53 PM »
Herewith NSIDC Total Arctic Sea Ice Area analysed as for JAXA extent data.

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA:  8,092,960 KM2 as at 19-Jun-2020

- Area loss on this day 165k, 64 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 101k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,270 k, 451 k, 09.4% more than the 10 year average of 4,819 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -44 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is  -59 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  220 k MORE than 2012


I think you may have done a copy and paste at some point from an "extent' write-up. Pretty sure you mean "area".

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #831 on: June 20, 2020, 11:03:49 PM »
Herewith NSIDC Total Arctic Sea Ice Area analysed as for JAXA extent data.

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA:  8,092,960 KM2 as at 19-Jun-2020

- Area loss on this day 165k, 64 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 101k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,270 k, 451 k, 09.4% more than the 10 year average of 4,819 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -44 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is  -59 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  220 k MORE than 2012


I think you may have done a copy and paste at some point from an "extent' write-up. Pretty sure you mean "area".
Thanks Phoenix..

Not a copy & paste - a copy of the entire Jaxa Extent spreadsheet re-jigged to link to NSIDC data

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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #832 on: June 21, 2020, 07:36:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 20th, 2020:
     9,752,527 km2, a drop of -51,249 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #833 on: June 21, 2020, 11:13:17 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,752,527 KM2 as at 20-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 51k, 16 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 67k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,695 k, 426 k, 10.0% more than the 10 year average of 4,269 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -160 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  116 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  53 k LESS than 2012
______________________________-
On average 42.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 86 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.07 million km2, 0.89 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________

ps: Yesterday @ 21.44 GMT, the Sun stopped, looked around, and said "That's far enough. I'm heading back down South".
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #834 on: June 21, 2020, 03:15:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,926,777 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 7,926,777    km2      
-373,409    km2   <   2010's average.
-142,123    km2   <   2019
-1,047,302    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -166    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -41    k   loss
Central Seas___   -125    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -20    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -7    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -12    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -11    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -11    k   loss
CAA_________   -40    k   loss
East Siberian__   -28    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -20    k   loss
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 166 k, 75 k more than the 2010's average loss of 91 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 373 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1047 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 118 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 142 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 122 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note the steady increase in daily EXTENT loss in the central seas (1st table)
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #835 on: June 21, 2020, 03:44:39 PM »
NSIDC Extent & Area data

The extent and area graphs attached show...

- in the High Arctic both extent and area are lowest in the satellite record,
- in the Peripheral Seas area and extent loss is slow, area being above and extent at the 2010's average.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #836 on: June 22, 2020, 05:58:35 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 21st, 2020:
     9,700,181 km2, a drop of -52,346 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #837 on: June 22, 2020, 10:21:31 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,700,181 KM2 as at 21-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 52k, 20 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 72k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,747 k, 406 k, 9.3% more than the 10 year average of 4,342 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -114 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  129 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  60 k LESS than 2012
______________________________-
On average 43.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 85 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.09 million km2, 0.91 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
JAXA Extent losses in recent days lagging behind both NSIDC extent and area losses
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #838 on: June 22, 2020, 03:19:54 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 21-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,829,939 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 7,829,939    km2      
-384,250    km2   <   2010's average.
-171,789    km2   <   2019
-1,046,387    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -97    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -42    k   loss
Central Seas___   -55    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -14    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -11    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -16    k   loss
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________   -30    k   loss
East Siberian__   -11    k   loss
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 97 k, 11 k more than the 2010's average loss of 86 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 384 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1046 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 105 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 172 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 81 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Looks like a hiatus in Area losses is on the cards - drained melt ponds?
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #839 on: June 22, 2020, 03:59:39 PM »
__________________________________________________
You have to click on each image to see it in its full glory - (forum software change)
___________________________________________________

3 NSIDC  Area Graphs..

Canadian Archipelago (CAA)

You will see the elbow or dogleg that happens right now in every year.
The valid assumption is that melt ponds and snowmelt run-off confuses the sensors which take this as sea ice area loss. When those melt ponds drain bingo - the ice reappears.

This year the melt was very late & very fast. Snow on the Canadian shore and the islands of the CAA has been & is melting very fast, and will continue to do so. (See https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2876.msg269893.html#msg269893).

This year just maybe the year when extreme heat melts the CAA ice so fast that sea ice area breaks through the dogleg... watch this space.
_____________________________
The Chukchi just may have got into its stride.
The ESS maybe going to take a breath
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #840 on: June 23, 2020, 05:58:26 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 22nd, 2020:
     9,616,182 km2, a drop of -83,999 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #841 on: June 23, 2020, 11:21:18 AM »
_________________________________________________
You have to click on each image to see it in its full glory - (forum software change)
___________________________________________________

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,616,182 KM2 as at 22-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 84k, 8 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 76k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,831 k, 414 k, 9.4% more than the 10 year average of 4,417 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -112 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  101 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  73 k LESS than 2012
______________________________-
On average 44.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 84 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.08 million km2, 0.91 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #842 on: June 23, 2020, 03:19:19 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,785,412 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 7,785,412    km2      
-335,602    km2   <   2010's average.
-133,466    km2   <   2019
-997,646    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -45    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -40    k   loss
Central Seas___   -5    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -13    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -11    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________   -20    k   loss
East Siberian__    14    k   gain
Central Arctic_    13    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 45 k, 48 k less than the 2010's average loss of 93 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 336 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 998 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 34 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 133 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 126 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Looks like a hiatus in Area losses is happening - drained melt ponds? How temporary?
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #843 on: June 23, 2020, 03:35:26 PM »
Yesterday I wrote
Quote
Canadian Archipelago (CAA) -NSIDC  Area Graph..

You will see the elbow or dogleg that happens right now in every year.
The valid assumption is that melt ponds and snowmelt run-off confuses the sensors which take this as sea ice area loss. When those melt ponds drain bingo - the ice reappears.

This year the melt was very late & very fast. Snow on the Canadian shore and the islands of the CAA has been & is melting very fast, and will continue to do so.

This year just maybe the year when extreme heat melts the CAA ice so fast that sea ice area breaks through the dogleg... watch this space.

Area loss on 22nd June for all the Central Seas just 5k, but the CAA managed 20k.

So at least on this day the CAA has pushed past the dogleg (2nd day @ '#1).
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___________________________________________________
« Last Edit: June 23, 2020, 03:42:08 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #844 on: June 24, 2020, 06:08:13 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 23rd, 2020:
     9,537,428 km2, a drop of -78,754 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #845 on: June 24, 2020, 10:01:10 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,537,428 KM2 as at 23-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 79k, 6 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 73k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,910 k, 420 k, 9.3% more than the 10 year average of 4,490 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -121 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  112 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  73 k LESS than 2012
______________________________-
On average 45.1% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 83 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.08 million km2, 0.90 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #846 on: June 24, 2020, 03:11:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 7,733,847 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 7,733,847    km2      
-298,472    km2   <   2010's average.
-82,176    km2   <   2019
-955,401    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -52    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -46    k   loss
Central Seas___   -5    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -16    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -16    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    7    k   gain
Beaufort_____    17    k   gain
CAA_________   -12    k   loss
East Siberian__    15    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Kara_________   -18    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 52 k, 37 k less than the 2010's average loss of 89 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 298 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 955 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 17 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 82 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 154 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Another really low daily sea ice area loss, though the Peripheral Seas lost more sea ice area as did the CAA & the Kara Sea.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

wdmn

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #847 on: June 25, 2020, 06:29:22 AM »
In lieu of Juan's update.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 24th, 2020:
     9,436,977 km2, a drop of -100,451 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record, 105,126 km2 behind 2016.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #848 on: June 25, 2020, 06:46:16 AM »
In lieu of Juan's update.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 24th, 2020:
     9,436,977 km2, a drop of -100,451 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record, 105,126 km2 behind 2016.
Thanks wdmn  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 24th, 2020:
     9,436,977 km2, a century drop of -100,451 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #849 on: June 25, 2020, 09:41:34 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,436,977 KM2 as at 24-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 100k, 24 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 76k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,011 k, 444 k, 9.7% more than the 10 year average of 4,567 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -161 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  105 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  124 k LESS than 2012
______________________________-
On average 45.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 82 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.05 million km2, 0.88 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Is this the start of a substantial new wave of extent losses?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)