Semimonthly BOE evaluation - Mid monthly so no BOE comparison to other years
June 15th extent was 10,029,135 km2. With on average 90 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -100,324 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).
Just as an aside: From June 1st to its' respective minimum, 2012 dropped on average -76,535 km2. From July 1st to the minimum, 2012 dropped on average -73,894 km2. To anybody holding out hope for a BOE we need to be dropping ~33% more per day than the record year.
Total extent loss thus far in June 2020 was -805,341 km2. And total extent loss so far this season is -4,418,506 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily melt rate of -42,486 km2. If the month of June ended today, this would be the 6th slowest rate of melt for the same period for the years 2007-2020. (See Attachment 2).
Looking only at the month of June thus far, we have averaged -53,689 km2 per day. If the month of June ended today, this average daily drop places June 2020 as 11th out of 14 (2007-2020) in average daily June melt, ahead of only 2015, 2016, and 2018. (See Attachment 3).
There is so much heat coming into the Russian side of the arctic. I'll be shocked if the 2nd half of June doesn't do something spectacular.