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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #900 on: July 04, 2020, 11:05:07 PM »
NSIDC Area & Extent - some observations.

The contrast is even wider between the 7 Peripheral Seas and the 7 seas of the High Arctic.

High Arctic Extent has been lowest in the satellite record every day since June 18.
Peripheral Arctic Extent is currently 14th lowest

High Arctic Area has been in the lowest 4 in the satellite record every day since June 18, and is currently lowest.
Peripheral Arctic Area is currently 12th lowest

Obviously, up until now this has been very much to do with the Kara, Laptev & ESS. But in the last 2 days a new development (see next post if I am still awake).
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #901 on: July 04, 2020, 11:26:08 PM »
NSIDC Area Graphs - Siberian Seas & The Central Arctic Sea

Laptev & Kara continue the sea ice march to oblivion.
After a pause, look like the ESS sea ice also int trouble.

The Central Arctic Sea ice area has plummeted in the last 2-3 days. Note that this is NOT reflected in any loss of sea ice EXTENT. Seems to be all about low concentration. But if this continues questions on the resilience of the Central Arctic Sea's ice might surface (again).

EDIT:- Just got around to reading the PIOMAS thread & Oren's comments on how ice volume loss in the CAB played catch up in June, against conventional wisdom. Suddenly what used to be in my youth that solid icepack of thick ice (even in summer) isn't looking so solid anymore, even after what was supposed to be and looked like the rebound last winter.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2020, 11:39:20 PM by gerontocrat »
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #902 on: July 05, 2020, 05:42:12 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 4th, 2020:
     8,507,022 km2, a century drop of -126,111 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #903 on: July 05, 2020, 11:27:05 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,507,022 KM2 as at 04-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 126k, 45 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 81k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,941 k, 495 k, 9.1% more than the 10 year average of 5,446 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  95 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  91 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  167 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  418 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 54.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 72 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.00 million km2, 0.82 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #904 on: July 05, 2020, 02:57:08 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

2020-06-27  9.854
2020-06-28  9.723  -131
2020-06-29  9.575  -148
2020-06-30  9.445  -130
2020-07-01  9.262  -183
2020-07-02  9.142  -120
2020-07-03  8.942  -200
2020-07-04  8.807  -135

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #905 on: July 05, 2020, 03:53:31 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 04-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,426,266 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 6,426,266    km2      
-456,989    km2   <   2010's average.
-39,632    km2   <   2019
-1,077,052    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -212    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -50    k   loss
Central Seas___   -162    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -15    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -10    k   loss
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -15    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________    9    k   gain
East Siberian__   -27    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -84    k   loss
Laptev_______   -24    k   loss
Kara_________   -15    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 212 k, 100 k more than the 2010's average loss of 112 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 457 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1077 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 274 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 40 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 31 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
The last 2 days have been record daily losses in the 19 years 2002-2020. (Previous record 198,031).

If area loss on the 5th July is more than 122k 2020 area will be lowest in the satellite record. (Almost a certainty.)

2 or 3 more days of very high extent losses could also make extent #1.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #906 on: July 05, 2020, 05:14:49 PM »
Major area losses these days...
I am still looking for seas that lose 10% of their ice area every day. Laptev and Kara are close to that benchmark.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Pagophilus

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #907 on: July 05, 2020, 05:55:55 PM »
2 or 3 more days of very high extent losses could also make extent #1.
[/i]

Wouldn't this be extent remaining #1, Gerontocrat?  Or did I mistake the meaning?
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #908 on: July 05, 2020, 06:01:32 PM »
2 or 3 more days of very high extent losses could also make extent #1.
[/i]

Wouldn't this be extent remaining #1, Gerontocrat?  Or did I mistake the meaning?

in all tables averaging over 5 days

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #909 on: July 05, 2020, 09:49:23 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

2020-06-27  9.854
2020-06-28  9.723  -131
2020-06-29  9.575  -148
2020-06-30  9.445  -130
2020-07-01  9.262  -183
2020-07-02  9.142  -120
2020-07-03  8.942  -200
2020-07-04  8.807  -135

These are impressive losses but for the newer members I would note that average loss on the curve made by Gerontocrat approaches 100k km^2/day at this time of year. I can not tell exactly from the curve but the maximum loss is around July 11th.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #910 on: July 05, 2020, 10:17:38 PM »
I always thought "century losses" are the rule for the first weeks in July. If you carefully look at gerontocrat's smoothed trend curve it never crosses the 100 k loss line. In reality century losses days occur frequently, but they are followed by some days of much slower area losses, which on average gives that smoothed trend curve.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #911 on: July 05, 2020, 10:25:36 PM »
2 or 3 more days of very high extent losses could also make extent #1.
[/i]

Wouldn't this be extent remaining #1, Gerontocrat?  Or did I mistake the meaning?

in all tables averaging over 5 days
For NSIDC data I use the standard NSIDC data which is the 5 day trailing average.
NSIDC do this as daily data is much more prone to error- especially when the sensors have problems distinguishing melt ponds from actual ice loss (e.g. at this time of year).

JAXA data, by the way, is a 2 day average, once again to minimise data error.

I attach a table of measurement uncertainties from a research letter  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf52c

To be sure of a new record low ideally several days a few tens of thousands of Km2 below the current minimum are needed to be sure. The current sensors have their limitations, but one must be grateful they exist at all. The NSIDc and JAXA instruments are well beyond their design life and as yet no announcemets of compatible replacements to mantain the continuous 41 year record.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Pagophilus

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #912 on: July 06, 2020, 04:36:00 AM »

I attach a table of measurement uncertainties from a research letter  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf52c

To be sure of a new record low ideally several days a few tens of thousands of Km2 below the current minimum are needed to be sure. The current sensors have their limitations, but one must be grateful they exist at all. The NSIDc and JAXA instruments are well beyond their design life and as yet no announcements of compatible replacements to maintain the continuous 41 year record.

Thank you, Gerontocrat.  I understand better now.  It is sobering to think that we may be having thrill flights for the uber-rich up into space soon, and yet we might not be sending anything up there to replace the NSIDC and JAXA instruments. 
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #913 on: July 06, 2020, 05:45:33 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 5th, 2020:
     8,374,940 km2, a century drop of -132,082 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #914 on: July 06, 2020, 08:39:10 AM »
Four out of the five last years are in the Top 5 list.  :(
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #915 on: July 06, 2020, 10:06:51 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,374,940 KM2 as at 05-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 132k, 43 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 89k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6,073 k, 538 k, 9.7% more than the 10 year average of 5,535 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  150 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  112 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  189 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  443 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 55.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 71 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.96 million km2, 0.78 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
I also attach a table of the July daily extent change for selected years. Later this week 2019 made its (short-lived) bid for stardom. Will 2020 maintain is #1 position?
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #916 on: July 06, 2020, 03:14:01 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

8-day trailing average is -151

2020-06-27  9.854
2020-06-28  9.723  -131
2020-06-29  9.575  -148
2020-06-30  9.445  -130
2020-07-01  9.262  -183
2020-07-02  9.142  -120
2020-07-03  8.942  -200
2020-07-04  8.807  -135
2020-07-05  8.648  -159

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #917 on: July 06, 2020, 03:31:04 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 05-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,255,804 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 6,255,804    km2      
-513,862    km2   <   2010's average.
-78,843    km2   <   2019
-1,151,636    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -170    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -44    k   loss
Central Seas___   -126    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -16    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -11    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    10    k   gain
East Siberian__   -38    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -59    k   loss
Laptev_______   -19    k   loss
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 170 k, 56 k more than the 2010's average loss of 114 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 514 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,152 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 322 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 79 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 44 k less than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Looks like area losses are going to reduce by a lot (though might stay at or a bit above average).
Extent losses set to remain high.

Looks like it might be the turn of the ESS to be walloped again.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #918 on: July 06, 2020, 04:45:47 PM »
As people will be thinking about the July poll, I have
- wiped the cobwebs off the extent analysis in Jaxa format (below),
- produced some montly average graphs for your delectation (post after this ne).

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,957,284 KM2 as at 05-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 157k, 41 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 116k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,927 k, 500 k, (09.2%) more than the 10 year average of 5,427 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  58 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  77 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  64 k MORE than 2012,
- Extent is  328 k LESS than 2007.
_____________________________________________
On average 53.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 71 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC-EXTENT-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.22 million km2, 0.83 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.39 million km2.
______________________________
Given that above average extent loss is guaranteed for the 6th July and probably for the 2 days after, extent will be #2 on the 6th (goodbye 2010), and might be #1 soon after.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #919 on: July 06, 2020, 04:58:05 PM »
NSIDC EXTENT - Monthly Average Graphs

I attach graphs for June to September based on actual extent to the 5th July, and after that average daily losses of the last 10 years.

In summary each month shows the average a bit below trend. Expected above average extent losses in the next 2-3 days would push the averages down another 50 to 100k.

The trend value for the September monthly average is just over 4.4 million km2, with an annual trend reduction of over 80k. So when I look at a guess for the 2020 September average, I think about how many years deviation from trend either way is most likely.

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ArcticMelt2

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #920 on: July 06, 2020, 06:28:41 PM »

I attach a table of measurement uncertainties from a research letter  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf52c

To be sure of a new record low ideally several days a few tens of thousands of Km2 below the current minimum are needed to be sure. The current sensors have their limitations, but one must be grateful they exist at all. The NSIDc and JAXA instruments are well beyond their design life and as yet no announcements of compatible replacements to maintain the continuous 41 year record.

Thank you, Gerontocrat.  I understand better now.  It is sobering to think that we may be having thrill flights for the uber-rich up into space soon, and yet we might not be sending anything up there to replace the NSIDC and JAXA instruments.

Answered in another thread
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2750.msg272161.html#msg272161

Pagophilus

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #921 on: July 07, 2020, 03:56:38 AM »

Thank you, Gerontocrat.  I understand better now.  It is sobering to think that we may be having thrill flights for the uber-rich up into space soon, and yet we might not be sending anything up there to replace the NSIDC and JAXA instruments.

Answered in another thread
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2750.msg272161.html#msg272161

Thank you, ArcticMelt.  Glad to know AMSR2 has a secure future! 

Note to self, stay on topic.

(Further note to self, had I not strayed off-topic I would still be fretting about AMSR2.)
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #922 on: July 07, 2020, 05:47:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 6th, 2020:

It seems that the ADS server is not working.
I have 3 options of internet connection and I haven't been able to connect in anyone of them.     

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. It is working now. Soon I will post.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2020, 05:57:51 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #923 on: July 07, 2020, 06:11:21 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 6th, 2020:
     8,180,236 km2, an almost double century drop of -194,704 km2:o
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

MrGreeny

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #924 on: July 07, 2020, 09:27:12 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 6th, 2020:
     8,180,236 km2, an almost double century drop of -194,704 km2:o
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
 

:o I was expecting a slightly lower drop but this, damn...
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #925 on: July 07, 2020, 09:57:02 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,180,236 KM2 as at 06-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 195k, 102 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 93k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6,267 k, 640 k, 11.4% more than the 10 year average of 5,628 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  230 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  221 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  243 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  543 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 56.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 70 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.86 million km2, 0.68 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Note that if remaining melt this year matches the remaining melt of 2012, the resulting minimum would be less than 3 million km2.
Note also that remaining melt in 6 of the last 10 years would give a minimum of less than 4 million km2.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #926 on: July 07, 2020, 04:06:42 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

9-day trailing average is -155

2020-06-27  9.854
2020-06-28  9.723  -131
2020-06-29  9.575  -148
2020-06-30  9.445  -130
2020-07-01  9.262  -183
2020-07-02  9.142  -120
2020-07-03  8.942  -200
2020-07-04  8.807  -135
2020-07-05  8.648  -159
2020-07-06  8.455  -193

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #927 on: July 07, 2020, 04:19:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 06-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,142,884 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 6,142,884    km2      
-521,570    km2   <   2010's average.
-71,666    km2   <   2019
-1,192,587    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -113    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -43    k   loss
Central Seas___   -70    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -18    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -13    k   loss
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    11    k   gain
East Siberian__   -36    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -16    k   loss
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 113 k, 8 k more than the 2010's average loss of 105 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 522 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,193 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 324 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 72 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 101 k less than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #928 on: July 08, 2020, 05:52:30 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 7th, 2020:
     8,001,159 km2, a century drop of -179,077 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Frivolousz21

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #929 on: July 08, 2020, 07:07:39 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 7th, 2020:
     8,001,159 km2, a century drop of -179,077 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

I would have to think a slowdown is coming.

This is ridiculous.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

wallen

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #930 on: July 08, 2020, 08:11:13 AM »
Mmm interested in knowing how much of this is from Hudson Bay. JAXA seems to show quite drop there from 6/7 to 7/7.  Bit obscured by cloud, but Worldview doesn't show the same level of drop, IMO.

thejazzmarauder

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #931 on: July 08, 2020, 08:24:59 AM »
That's a loss of 751,811 km2 over the past five days (7/3-7/7).
« Last Edit: July 08, 2020, 08:34:24 AM by thejazzmarauder »

blumenkraft

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #932 on: July 08, 2020, 10:21:01 AM »
It has taken a lot of time and energy, successes and failures to build a library of spreadsheets and data sources. So it is a bit annoying to think people have to wade through a load of clutter to reach the data.

This is a data thread. So, please please please bring data or a new way of looking at the data (when discussion is great).
If not, bugger off.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #933 on: July 08, 2020, 01:01:01 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,001,159 KM2 as at 07-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 179k, 88 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 91k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6,446 k, 728 k, 12.7% more than the 10 year average of 5,718 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  284 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  346 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  370 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  625 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 57.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 69 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.77 million km2, 0.59 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #934 on: July 08, 2020, 03:48:54 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 07-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,050,105 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 6,050,105    km2      
-505,717    km2   <   2010's average.
-51,116    km2   <   2019
-1,209,936    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -93    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -49    k   loss
Central Seas___   -44    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -26    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -14    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    9    k   gain
East Siberian__   -29    k   loss
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 93 k, 16 k less than the 2010's average loss of 109 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 506 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,210 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 308 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 51 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 146 k less than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
As expected , Area loss declined while extent loss remained high         
As a result, for the first day this year extent is lowest in the satellite record         
So NSIDC 5-day Area & Extent + JAXA Extent are all at #1.
         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #935 on: July 08, 2020, 04:09:03 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

10-day change is -1578

2020-06-27  9.854
2020-06-28  9.723  -131
2020-06-29  9.575  -148
2020-06-30  9.445  -130
2020-07-01  9.262  -183
2020-07-02  9.142  -120
2020-07-03  8.942  -200
2020-07-04  8.807  -135
2020-07-05  8.648  -159
2020-07-06  8.455  -193
2020-07-07  8.276  -179

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #936 on: July 08, 2020, 05:09:54 PM »
Evaluation of sea ice area "relative area wise" Jun 22-Jul 07, 2020
One sea with increasing sea ice:
CAA        + 15 %
One laggard:
Beaufort - 4 %
Slow decrease in:
CAB        - 15 %
Grønland - 17 %
ESS        - 18 %
Medium decrease:
Chukchi  - 27 %
High decrease, almost identical:
Kara      - 51 %
Laptev   - 52 %
Hudson  - 54 %
Baffin    - 54 %
Barents  - 54 %
Okhotsk, Bering, St. Lawrence melted out. No analysis.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

MrGreeny

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #937 on: July 09, 2020, 05:34:46 AM »
Seems like the ads.nipr.ac.jp website is offline, will check again soon to see if it's online.
The ice spins right round baby right round, like a record baby right round round round ~

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #938 on: July 09, 2020, 05:37:50 AM »
Seems like the ads.nipr.ac.jp website is offline, will check again soon to see if it's online.
Yes, it is also happening to me. I will try to post later...

Edit:

The ADS server has been out of order for more than 40 minutes. It is time for me to go to bed.
I appreciate if someone else post the data.

Thanks.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

2nd Edit:

A message from ADS:
« Last Edit: July 09, 2020, 06:17:51 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

MrGreeny

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #939 on: July 09, 2020, 08:00:02 AM »
A note from ADS_NIPR:
The Arctic Data Archive System (ADS) will be closed at the following times due to system maintenance.
We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.
・Maintenance date and time
Thursday, July 7, 2020, from 12:00 to 17:00

According to JST time the servers will be down for another two hours.

EDIT: The servers are back online, however extent data has not been updated.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2020, 08:22:39 AM by MrGreeny »
The ice spins right round baby right round, like a record baby right round round round ~

pauldry600

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #940 on: July 09, 2020, 08:27:23 AM »
Hope it's up then. Dont think it's as high as last two days. Bremen looks less but I could be wrong.  100k? maybe

Michael Hauber

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #941 on: July 09, 2020, 09:52:06 AM »
Drop of 179k.  370k ahead of 2012.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Neven

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #942 on: July 09, 2020, 09:56:50 AM »
Drop of 179k.  370k ahead of 2012.

That was yesterday. No new data as of yet.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #943 on: July 09, 2020, 04:45:35 PM »
But NSIDC data is here...

NSIDC Total Area as at 08-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,998,358 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 5,998,358    km2      
-456,436    km2   <   2010's average.
 2,775    km2   >   2019
-1,176,927    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -52    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -42    k   loss
Central Seas___   -10    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -22    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -11    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -12    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    8    k   gain
East Siberian__   -24    k   loss
Central Arctic_    35    k   gain
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 52 k, 49 k less than the 2010's average loss of 101 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 456 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,177 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 260 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 3 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 131 k less than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Area may be now at #2, but NSIDC Extent & JAXA Extent are still at #1.
And as Jack Nicholson, in the role of US President in "Mars Attacks", remarks after the Martians have zapped Congress " We've still got the Judiciary, we've still got the Executive, and 2 out of 3 ain't bad".

Note how the Central Arctic Sea has switched from large area losses to large area gains.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #944 on: July 09, 2020, 06:18:08 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

11-day change is -1721
11-day average is -156

Has there ever been a series of numbers like this before? I'm too lazy to look through the historical data. I may load it all into a SQL database to run some queries.

2020-06-27  9.854
2020-06-28  9.723  -131
2020-06-29  9.575  -148
2020-06-30  9.445  -130
2020-07-01  9.262  -183
2020-07-02  9.142  -120
2020-07-03  8.942  -200
2020-07-04  8.807  -135
2020-07-05  8.648  -159
2020-07-06  8.455  -193
2020-07-07  8.276  -179
2020-07-08  8.133  -143

ArcticMelt2

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #945 on: July 09, 2020, 06:38:16 PM »
Has there ever been a series of numbers like this before? I'm too lazy to look through the historical data. I may load it all into a SQL database to run some queries.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

ajouis

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #946 on: July 09, 2020, 11:32:12 PM »
Bremen university data
After a thousand steps on the ice, it cracked.
The Man looked down at the infinite blue of the sea.
On the horizon, standing still, the polar bear had just scented his next meal.

 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

Rodius

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #947 on: July 10, 2020, 04:13:30 AM »
NSIDC daily extent

11-day change is -1721
11-day average is -156

Has there ever been a series of numbers like this before? I'm too lazy to look through the historical data. I may load it all into a SQL database to run some queries.


I am bored so I visually scanned for competing drops.
Strickly speaking, no it hasn't happened since 1999 (that is as far back as I felt like going back)

But there are close examples.
26 Jun to 5 Jul 2013: -1.569 in 10 days (ave 1.56 per day)
4 Jul to 13 Jul 2011: -2.264 in 18 days (ave 1.25 per day)
1 Jul to 16 Jul 2007: -2.129 in 16 days (ave 1.33 per day)

None of the above maintained over 0.100 on every single day during those runs.
I think 2020 is doing something extraordinary here.

MrGreeny

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #948 on: July 10, 2020, 05:33:48 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 8th, 2020:
    7,862,234km2 a century drop of -138,925km2 (oops made an error there, need more coffee..)
    2020 is lowest on record.


July 9th, 2020:
    7,758,502km2 a century drop of -103,732km2
    2020 is lowest on record.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: July 10, 2020, 05:46:04 AM by MrGreeny »
The ice spins right round baby right round, like a record baby right round round round ~

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #949 on: July 10, 2020, 05:43:43 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 8th, 2020:
     7,862,234 km2, a century drop of -138,925 km2.

July 9th, 2020:
     7,758,502 km2, a century drop of -103,732 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.