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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #950 on: July 10, 2020, 12:37:00 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,758,502 KM2 as at 09-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 104k, 4 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 100k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6,689 k, 767 k, 12.9% more than the 10 year average of 5,922 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  195 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  430 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  351 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  664 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 59.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 67 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.73 million km2, 0.55 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #951 on: July 10, 2020, 03:33:06 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 09-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,966,478 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 5,966,478    km2      
-389,338    km2   <   2010's average.
 70,076    km2   >   2019
-1,119,322    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -32    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -40    k   loss
Central Seas___    8    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -21    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    6    k   gain
East Siberian__   -19    k   loss
Central Arctic_    42    k   gain
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 32 k, 67 k less than the 2010's average loss of 99 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 389 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,119 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 148 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 70 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 76 k less than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
The last few days have been all about the Central Arctic Sea switching from extreme area losses to extreme area gains. Melt ponds? Compaction? But perhaps if nothing else an indication that the sea ice in the Central Arctic Sea is unstable - at the mercy of the elements. It is not a great big solid lump anymore.

Central Arctic Sea ice extent is showing a stead, modest gradually increasing daily loss over the last week.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #952 on: July 10, 2020, 05:22:17 PM »
Despite the slow down in the High Arctic Seas Hudson, Baffin and Barents continue to lose their ice constantly, all three of them around 8% of their area.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #953 on: July 10, 2020, 07:05:12 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

The run of century breaks ends at 11 in a row.

2020-06-27  9.854
2020-06-28  9.723  -131
2020-06-29  9.575  -148
2020-06-30  9.445  -130
2020-07-01  9.262  -183
2020-07-02  9.142  -120
2020-07-03  8.942  -200
2020-07-04  8.807  -135
2020-07-05  8.648  -159
2020-07-06  8.455  -193
2020-07-07  8.276  -179
2020-07-08  8.133  -143
2020-07-09  8.037    -96

MrGreeny

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #954 on: July 11, 2020, 05:41:30 AM »
Expecting a bit over a century drop today, the magic globe tells me.
The ice spins right round baby right round, like a record baby right round round round ~

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #955 on: July 11, 2020, 05:43:04 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 10th, 2020:
     7,661,609 km2, a drop of -96,893 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #956 on: July 11, 2020, 11:22:26 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,661,609 KM2 as at 10-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 97k, 4 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 93k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6,786 k, 770 k, 12.8% more than the 10 year average of 6,016 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  178 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  463 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  315 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  621 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 60.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 66 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.73 million km2, 0.55 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
8 out of 10 of the projections from remaining melt in the last 10 years result in a minimum below 4 million km2.
The 2012 remaining melt that produced the record low was 22% above the average. For 2020 to produce a new record low requires remaining melt of 14% above the average. Still unlikely but no longer in the impossible category.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #957 on: July 11, 2020, 03:26:32 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,905,398 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 5,905,398    km2      
-350,048    km2   <   2010's average.
 123,008    km2   >   2019
-1,092,853    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -61    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -45    k   loss
Central Seas___   -16    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -23    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -11    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -11    k   loss
Central Arctic_    18    k   gain
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 61 k, 39 k less than the 2010's average loss of 100 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 350 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,093 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 84 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 123 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 40 k less than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Extent has now completed 10 days of century breaks, a total sea ice extent loss of  1.53 million km2.

Is sea ice area going to resume above average losses in the coming days?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #958 on: July 11, 2020, 08:05:17 PM »
Peripheral Seas - sea ice area

The Okhotsk, Bering, and St Lawrence are history for this year.

Of the 4 remaining in play..
- Another ordinary year in Hudson Bay i.e. finished in a week or two (though with it being very warm maybe very quickly),
- Looks like Baffin Bay is finishing melting out with a final flourish,
- The Barents Sea is nearly done - onl possibility is ice being ushed in from the Central Arctic,

- The Greenland Sea If not for a continuous supply of ice via the Fram and pushed south by the strong East Greenland Ocean Current, the Greenland Sea would be ice free by now. So the final minimum for this sea all depends on how much new ice is heading its way for the remainder of this melting season.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

JNap

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #959 on: July 12, 2020, 03:02:36 AM »
Here is a yearly extent comparison since 2000 for the period each year from June 27 - July 10 using NSIDC data. 

The GAAC that has been occurring during a near peak insolation period has made 2020 the leader for both total extent reduction as well as the percentage of extent reduction during this past 13 day period.

Year   Melt Total (000's)   % of Ice Melted during period
2000   1.015   9.4%
2001   0.886   8.2%
2002   1.078   9.7%
2003   1.015   9.4%
2004   0.886   8.2%
2005   1.200   11.5%
2006   1.207   12.0%
2007   1.808   17.4%
2008   1.078   10.4%
2009   1.596   15.0%
2010   0.890   9.4%
2011   1.479   15.2%
2012   1.548   16.0%
2013   1.730   16.6%
2014   1.529   15.2%
2015   1.203   11.7%
2016   1.141   11.8%
2017   1.258   12.7%
2018   1.124   11.1%
2019   1.664   17.2%
2020   1.993   20.2%
« Last Edit: July 12, 2020, 03:30:40 AM by JNap »
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #960 on: July 12, 2020, 05:42:21 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 11th, 2020:
     7,527,429 km2, a century drop of -134,180 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #961 on: July 12, 2020, 06:27:11 AM »
Here is a yearly extent comparison since 2000 for the period each year from June 27 - July 10 using NSIDC data. 
I made the same analysis using ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA) DATA.
From June 28th [1st 2020 century drop on JAXA] to July 11th.
My surprises: 2013 is the year with the biggest average drop & 2016 is the 16th.

The order could change a little. On the years 1979-1986, there are some years with no data on those days. I didn't make an average, I just erased those years without data.
 
« Last Edit: July 12, 2020, 06:33:11 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #962 on: July 12, 2020, 10:27:13 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,527,429 KM2 as at 11-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 134k, 40 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 94k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6,920 k, 810 k, 13.3% more than the 10 year average of 6,110 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  245 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  520 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  339 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  644 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 61.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 65 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.69 million km2, 0.51 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
To match the record low minimum of 2012 remaining melt needs to be 13.3% greater than the 10 year average (24k less than yesterday).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #963 on: July 12, 2020, 06:10:19 PM »
I added the monthly extent value for June 2020 into my long-term plot where I calculate the extent anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average (1979-2020) June extent is now 11.56 M km². June 2020 had an average extent of 10.58 M km², which is 0.98 M km² less than that long-term average.
The slghtly higher than normal development in June 2020 kept the actual value above the red long-term linear trend line by 0.23 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this June should have been at 10.35 M km²), but it came closer to it compared to earlier months this year.
The slope of the long-term linear trend line has stayed constant (-0.0549).

See attached graph.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #964 on: July 12, 2020, 06:23:57 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,827,158 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 5,827,158    km2      
-333,845    km2   <   2010's average.
 165,249    km2   >   2019
-1,080,704    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -78    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -34    k   loss
Central Seas___   -44    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -19    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -10    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______   -9    k   loss
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 78 k, 16 k less than the 2010's average loss of 94 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 334 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,081 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 46 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 165 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 20 k more than 2012[/b]         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #965 on: July 12, 2020, 08:50:30 PM »
I finally found the sea that loses 10% of its area day by day: It's Hudson Sea, now for five days in a row...
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #966 on: July 13, 2020, 05:39:41 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 12th, 2020:
     7,448,152 km2, a drop of -79,277 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #967 on: July 13, 2020, 11:31:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,448,152 KM2 as at 12-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 79k, 24 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 103k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6,999 k, 787 k, 12.7% more than the 10 year average of 6,213 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  270 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  460 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  325 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  597 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 62.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 64 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.71 million km2, 0.53 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on each image for full-size.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #968 on: July 13, 2020, 03:05:33 PM »
NSIDC Data

The daily extent data for the 12th July (7.819 million km2) from NSIDC  is exactly the same as for the 11th July.

This happened twice last month and both times significantly revised data was posted later in the day.

So no update from me until this evening at least.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

FishOutofWater

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #969 on: July 13, 2020, 04:04:16 PM »
Thanks for the quality control, Gerontocrat. Well done.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #970 on: July 13, 2020, 06:50:17 PM »
& Lo & Behold, a revised update from NSIDC (Daily extent now 7.747 instead of an unchanged 7.819)

NSIDC Total Area as at 12-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,732,704 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 5,732,704    km2      
-335,509    km2   <   2010's average.
 181,986    km2   >   2019
-1,086,357    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -94    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -24    k   loss
Central Seas___   -70    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -18    k   loss
CAA_________   -5    k   loss
East Siberian__   -20    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______   -12    k   loss
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 94 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 93 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 336 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,086 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 37 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 182 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 78 k more than 2012[/b]

It is very warm in and around Hudson Bay - a surprise to see ice loss reducing so much.         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Michael Hauber

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #971 on: July 14, 2020, 02:53:17 AM »
What might the 2020's average look like?

If I guess what it might look like by assuming it drops at about the same rate as 90s to 10s (i.e. half of the drop), then we get these stats (ADS/Jaxa):

July 12 2020:  7,448,152
July 12 20s avg: 7,201,182
Currently 246,970 above the 20s average.

2020s avg Sep minimum: 3,255,659, which is slightly above the 2012 minimum of 3,177,455

So currently we are still a bit slower than my imaginary average 2020s melt season, but need to be a bit faster to break the minimum record.

This ignores the possibility that the decline in minimum may be speeding up or slowing down.

Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Frivolousz21

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #972 on: July 14, 2020, 02:58:48 AM »
What might the 2020's average look like?

If I guess what it might look like by assuming it drops at about the same rate as 90s to 10s (i.e. half of the drop), then we get these stats (ADS/Jaxa):

July 12 2020:  7,448,152
July 12 20s avg: 7,201,182
Currently 246,970 above the 20s average.

2020s avg Sep minimum: 3,255,659, which is slightly above the 2012 minimum of 3,177,455

So currently we are still a bit slower than my imaginary average 2020s melt season, but need to be a bit faster to break the minimum record.

This ignores the possibility that the decline in minimum may be speeding up or slowing down.

Getting  to essentially  melt outside will require some record early melting of Snow cover over land near the arctic including those rivers melting out earlier than on modern record to bring May much further into the melt season.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #973 on: July 14, 2020, 03:05:43 AM »
NSIDC daily extent

NSIDC updated their daily data after an initial release showing 12 July at 7.819

2020-06-27  9.854
2020-06-28  9.723  -131
2020-06-29  9.575  -148
2020-06-30  9.445  -130
2020-07-01  9.262  -183
2020-07-02  9.142  -120
2020-07-03  8.942  -200
2020-07-04  8.807  -135
2020-07-05  8.648  -159
2020-07-06  8.455  -193
2020-07-07  8.276  -179
2020-07-08  8.133  -143
2020-07-09  8.037    -96
2020-07-10  7.861  -176
2020-07-11  7.819    -42
2020-07-12  7.747    -72

Jacobus

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #974 on: July 14, 2020, 05:54:38 AM »
July 13th, 2020

7,303,539 km2

A loss of -144,613 km2

The lowest on record for the date, per JAXA.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 06:06:47 AM by Jacobus »

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #975 on: July 14, 2020, 06:09:20 AM »
July 13th, 2020

7,303,539 km2

A loss of -144,613 km2

The lowest on record for the date, per JAXA.
Thank you, Jacobus.  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 13th, 2020:
     7,303,539 km2, a drop of -144,613 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #976 on: July 14, 2020, 09:24:36 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,303,539 KM2 as at 13-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 145k, 42 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 103k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,144 k, 829 k, 13.1% more than the 10 year average of 6,315 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  345 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  454 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  420 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  621 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 63.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 63 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.67 million km2, 0.49 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
If this lead over 2019 persists, perhaps time to think about the 365 day trailing average extent heading for a new record low late this year or next year?
__________________________________
N.B. Click once for full-size images
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #977 on: July 14, 2020, 05:21:53 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,645,617 KM2         

<Post deleted at G's request due to data errors. O>
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 04:38:47 PM by oren »
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #978 on: July 14, 2020, 06:51:53 PM »
NSIDC Area Graphs of the Russian Shore + the Chukchi

I like these graphs as they show how in summer these seas have been changed from icy deserts to open water with what must be inevitable climate change.

The shallow V-shape of the 1980's has changed to a U-shape, both widened and deepened as the years roll by, i.e. earlier, faster melt and later, even faster refreeze.

All these seas eventually completely freeze over. I always wonder when this will no longer be the case.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #979 on: July 14, 2020, 07:34:11 PM »
Evaluation of sea ice area "relative area wise" Jul 01-Jul 13, 2020
One sea with increasing sea ice:
CAA        + 15 %

Two laggards:
CAB       - 7 %
Beaufort - 8 %
Slow decrease in:
Grønland - 20 %
Medium decrease:
Chukchi  - 28 %
ESS        - 30 %
High decrease, almost identical:
Kara       - 49 %
Laptev    - 50 %
Baffin     - 53 %
Hudson   - 55 %
The leader:
Barents   - 67 %
Okhotsk, Bering, St. Lawrence melted out. No analysis.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #980 on: July 14, 2020, 07:34:22 PM »
NSIDC Area Graphs of the Russian Shore + the Chukchi

I like these graphs as they show how in summer these seas have been changed from icy deserts to open water with what must be inevitable climate change.

The shallow V-shape of the 1980's has changed to a U-shape, both widened and deepened as the years roll by, i.e. earlier, faster melt and later, even faster refreeze.

All these seas eventually completely freeze over. I always wonder when this will no longer be the case.

Thank you for the graphs and the crisp analysis, Gerontocrat.  Vivid representations of extraordinary change.  I like the V's to U's description -- memorable.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #981 on: July 14, 2020, 07:35:53 PM »
One sea with increasing sea ice:
CAA        + 15 %


Or draining meltponds?  That is what it has got to be, doesn't it? 

Sorry, interpretation on a data thread.  I will now shut up.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #982 on: July 14, 2020, 08:22:52 PM »
One sea with increasing sea ice:
CAA        + 15 %


Or draining meltponds?  That is what it has got to be, doesn't it? 

Sorry, interpretation on a data thread.  I will now shut up.
There was a row last year - that was due to long and many posts by various people arguing about their favourite hypotheses usually without any reference to the current year's data (or any data at all).

Me, I personally don't have a problem with a crisp comment on a piece of data. I would have made a similar comment. The question now is, given what looks like well above freezing temperatures over the CAA for the forseeable future, will CAA sea ice lose its ice really fast for real this time.

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #983 on: July 14, 2020, 09:05:14 PM »
One sea with increasing sea ice:
CAA        + 15 %


Or draining meltponds?  That is what it has got to be, doesn't it? 

Sorry, interpretation on a data thread.  I will now shut up.
There was a row last year - that was due to long and many posts by various people arguing about their favourite hypotheses usually without any reference to the current year's data (or any data at all).

Me, I personally don't have a problem with a crisp comment on a piece of data. I would have made a similar comment. The question now is, given what looks like well above freezing temperatures over the CAA for the forseeable future, will CAA sea ice lose its ice really fast for real this time.

Thank you, Gerontocrat.  This lowly Fraziler feels gratified and validated.  Hope that CAA garlic press does not open up!
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 09:17:41 PM by Pagophilus »
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #984 on: July 15, 2020, 05:32:18 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 14th, 2020:
     7,117,005 km2, a drop of -186,534 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: July 15, 2020, 05:44:38 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #985 on: July 15, 2020, 06:26:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

A long way for 2020, to become the lowest on record...
Will it make it?
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #986 on: July 15, 2020, 10:29:16 AM »
I have moved the messages dealing with analysis and prediction of the rest of the season to the melting season thread, where they will have wider readership. Please keep this thread for "dry" data only. (Gerontocrat's daily boilerplate analysis is grandfathered in as part of his data posts).

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #987 on: July 15, 2020, 11:12:04 AM »
“Grandfathering” in Gerontocrat’s excellent analyses seems somehow highly appropriate  :)

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #988 on: July 15, 2020, 12:38:03 PM »
Not surprising that the data is causing such a stir. The graph is very much in uncharted territory.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,117,005 KM2 as at 14-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 187k, 89 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 98k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,331 k, 917 k, 14.3% more than the 10 year average of 6,414 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  454 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  494 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  560 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  686 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 64.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 62 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.58 million km2, 0.40 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

Only 2 of the last 10 years remaining melt would cause a minimum of more than 4 million km2.
Remaining extent loss 11.4% above the average would cause a new record low.
______________________________
N.B. Click once for full-size images
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #989 on: July 15, 2020, 01:34:11 PM »
JAXA Sea Ice Extent - 365 Day Averages

Around this time last year it looked as if 2019 extent would be low enough to make a new record low 365 day trailing average extent. But came late autumn and winter 2019-20 and extent rebounded.

So here we are again, 2020 extent so far below 2019 extent as to possibly make a new record 365 day low later this year. It's all about whether 2020 extent will stay below 2019 extent and by how much.

Extent on this day is already 113k below the 1980's average with about 60 days to minimum. The table attached shows extent must reduce by 564k before it is below the highest minimum in the current century.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #990 on: July 15, 2020, 03:07:43 PM »
university of Bremen extent and area
After a thousand steps on the ice, it cracked.
The Man looked down at the infinite blue of the sea.
On the horizon, standing still, the polar bear had just scented his next meal.

 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #991 on: July 15, 2020, 03:20:35 PM »
I think NSIDC have put duff data on https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/.
If it's like the last 3 times, revised updates will be uploaded later in the day.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #992 on: July 15, 2020, 05:53:06 PM »
I sent an email to NSIDC about their data. A quick reply!
Note they say problems with the last 2 days data. So maybe yesterday's posting on NSIDC data is a load of......

You have been warned.
_______________________________________________________
Nic, Jul 15, 2020, 8:51 AM MDT:
Dear Matthew,

Thank you for contacting NSIDC. Thank you for catching this issue. We have been experience issues with ingesting the data used for the sea ice analysis for the past two days, and are currently performing planned maintenance. However, it isn't immediately obvious what caused discrepancies in previous months.

I've sent a note the Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis team, and I'll get back in touch with you shortly.

Best regards,
Nic
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #993 on: July 16, 2020, 05:31:59 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 15th, 2020:
     6,965,917 km2, a century drop of -151,088 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 05:43:07 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Killian

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #994 on: July 16, 2020, 07:43:04 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 15th, 2020:
     6,965,917 km2, a century drop of -151,088 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.

-381k

Just a week ago I thought -298 by the 24th would be bad news.
 :o
 :(

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #995 on: July 16, 2020, 09:56:25 AM »
I looked at the data and my tables, somewhat stunned. A minimum of 3.5 million km2 with average remaining melt?

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,965,917 KM2 as at 15-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 151k, 76 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 75k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,482 k, 993 k, 15.3% more than the 10 year average of 6,488 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  531 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  548 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  629 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  728 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 65.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 61 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.50 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a new record low minimum extent, remaining melt needs to be 9.5% above the average.
______________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #996 on: July 16, 2020, 11:24:50 AM »
NSIDC data
Another email from NSIDC . Looks like just a data hiccup with planned maintenance.
With luck normal service resumes this early afternoon  (UK time).

Mind you, I would have thought that the data would be cleaned before making it available on sea-ice-tools.
___________________________________________________
Hi,

I checked with the team, and they reminded me that the data in that spreadsheet is NRT (near real time), so as things are processed and quality checked and updated (particularly if we've had downtime at any point or difficulties in sea ice processing overnight) the data will change. Basically, those updates are a result of quality checking and updating. This recent occurrence, and at least one of the other dates you mentioned, happened during planned maintenance downtime, and were probably a result of the processing and quality checks catching up.

The archived data is more statics, as it has already been quality checked and updated if necessary.
https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives

Best,
Nic
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #997 on: July 16, 2020, 04:39:25 PM »
What a time to have to have a big maintenance job.

I attach "Unwanted Arctic Image of The Day"
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #998 on: July 16, 2020, 05:07:55 PM »
...at least the median ice edge is clearly visible...  ;)
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #999 on: July 16, 2020, 05:49:59 PM »
For 7.15.2020, the currently posted NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area data 5 day trailing mean value is 5.508814 (pole hole adjustment) millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 46,097.7 square kilometers from the previous day.

NSIDC sea ice area losses remain well below average.