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Ktb

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1000 on: July 17, 2020, 01:30:40 AM »
On vacation without access to laptop. Will post semi-monthly update at the end of the month.
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1001 on: July 17, 2020, 04:33:38 AM »
NSIDC daily extent

NSIDC updated their daily data today (July 16). It looks like they fixed whatever problem they were having.


2020-07-01  9.262  -183
2020-07-02  9.142  -120
2020-07-03  8.942  -200
2020-07-04  8.807  -135
2020-07-05  8.648  -159
2020-07-06  8.455  -193
2020-07-07  8.276  -179
2020-07-08  8.133  -143
2020-07-09  8.037    -96
2020-07-10  7.861  -176
2020-07-11  7.819    -42
2020-07-12  7.747    -72
2020-07-13  7.473  -274
2020-07-14  7.308  -165
2020-07-15  7.188  -120

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1002 on: July 17, 2020, 05:36:48 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 16th, 2020:
     6,820,565 km2, a century drop of -145,352 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 05:47:36 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1003 on: July 17, 2020, 05:41:44 AM »
NSIDC updated their daily data today (July 16). It looks like they fixed whatever problem they were having.

I'm just glad it wasn't a satellite issue and we are back to our regularly scheduled programming reporting-wise, even if this year's numbers are not quite so normal

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1004 on: July 17, 2020, 10:17:16 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,820,565 KM2 as at 16-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 145k, 57 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 88k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,627 k, 1,051 k, 16.0% more than the 10 year average of 6,576 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  604 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  675 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  648 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  776 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 66.1% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 60 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.45 million km2, 0.27 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
EDIT
For a record low remaining melt needs to be 8% or more above average, as happened with remaining melt in 2102 2012, 2015, and 2018

In 2102 there won't be any Arctic sea ice to melt?

______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 02:06:02 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1005 on: July 17, 2020, 03:30:37 PM »
My post#977 of NSIDC data  for 13th July has got bad data in it - victim of technical issues at NSIDC.
As it is more than 2 days old I cannot delete it. Ho hum.

Meanwhile....

NSIDC Total Area as at 16-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,345,255 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 5,345,255    km2      
-318,764    km2   <   2010's average.
 207,812    km2   >   2019
-1,119,375    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -98    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -29    k   loss
Central Seas___   -69    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -17    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -7    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -14    k   loss
East Siberian__   -18    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -15    k   loss
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 98 k, 3 k less than the 2010's average loss of 101 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 319 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,119 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 80 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 208 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 197 k more than 2012[/b]
_____________________________________________
NSIDC Sea Ice EXTENT...
Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 148 k, 50 k more than the 2010's average loss of 98 k

- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.
- 2020 EXTENT is 747 k less than the 2010's average
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,715 k less than the 2000's average
- 2020 EXTENT is 544 k less than 2016
- 2020 EXTENT is 412 k less than 2019
- 2020 EXTENT is 452 k less than 2012
   

GoTo the melting thread for much discussion on compaction & dispersion.      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Tom

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1006 on: July 17, 2020, 04:13:46 PM »
Jaxa has had quite an impressive run this month:

 1st July 2020     -101,897
 2nd July 2020     -63,951
 3rd July 2020    -119,837
 4th July 2020    -126,111
 5th July 2020    -132,082
 6th July 2020    -194,704
 7th July 2020    -179,077
 8th July 2020    -138,925
 9th July 2020    -103,732
10th July 2020      -96,893
11th July 2020   -134,180
12th July 2020     -79,277
13th July 2020   -144,613
14th July 2020   -186,534
15th July 2020   -151,088
16th July 2020   -145,352

Average (Jul): -131,141
Average (last 10 days): -135,967
Average (last  5 days): -141,373

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1007 on: July 17, 2020, 04:15:57 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

14-day average is (7078-9142)/14 = -147

2020-07-02  9.142
2020-07-03  8.942  -200
2020-07-04  8.807  -135
2020-07-05  8.648  -159
2020-07-06  8.455  -193
2020-07-07  8.276  -179
2020-07-08  8.133  -143
2020-07-09  8.037    -96
2020-07-10  7.861  -176
2020-07-11  7.819    -42
2020-07-12  7.747    -72
2020-07-13  7.473  -274
2020-07-14  7.308  -165
2020-07-15  7.188  -120
2020-07-16  7.078  -110

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1008 on: July 17, 2020, 04:31:10 PM »
Some NSIDC AREA graphs

Canadian Seas
It looks like staying very warm in Northern Canada, including the CAA & Hudson Bay

Hudson Bay. After a slow start sea ice area now a bit below average. It will melt out this month

Baffin Bay sea ice area has been well below average throughout the melting season. It could easily completely melt out. But maybe it will become an ice killing ground if ice starts flowing through the Nares Strait into the Bay.

The CAA appeared to strongly melt, and then rebounded. Consensus says it was formation and then draining of melt ponds. The snow on the CAA islands was extra thick at the end of winter, and melted very suddenly. Loads of water run-off onto the ice-filled channels. What happens next? The warmth says melt - but will that just provide open water channels for CAB ice - the Garlic Press ?
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 05:04:38 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1009 on: July 17, 2020, 05:29:30 PM »
Some more NSIDC AREA graphs

Atlantic Front Seas


Barents Sea Earlier in the season he Barents sea ice area can be at the mercy of CAB ice pushed westwards into it. By now, the sea ice edge has retreatedso that this ice import is now very unlikely. The Barents is usually virtually ice free by the end of August. Maybe this year earlier.

Greenland Sea To repeat myself, it is only ice import from the Central Arctic that stops this sea from ending the season ice-free. This season has seen periods of above average ice import - which is, of course, destined for oblivion. What happens next? I don't know. The conversations in the melting thread have been known to get quite heated abut this. This is the sea to watch in the peripheral seas

Kara Sea One year the convention will be that the Kara Sea is part of the Atlantic Front, so given the way this season is going why not anticipate events?
Sea ice area has been well below the 2010's average all melting season Apart from an obstinate lump of solid looking ice on the West side of the New Siberian Islands North Land isles, sea ice in the Kara Sea is basically kaput. But this sea never completely melts out. This year?
_________________________________
EDIT - Whoops Not the New Siberian Islands - 'tis the "North Land", consisting of 3 islands, Ostrov Bolshevik, Ostrov October Revolution & Ostrov Komsomolets (means member of the Young Communists League).
___________________________________________
Off-topic
Komsomolets is also the name given to the ill-fated nuclear powered Russian Sub K-278 which sank 180kms SW from Norway's Bear Island in April 1989, complete with 2 nuclear tipped torpedoes.

« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 09:18:14 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1010 on: July 17, 2020, 05:51:10 PM »
Some more NSIDC AREA graphs

Russia


Laptev Sea The graph says it all. Sea Ice are has been at lowest in the satellte record for 45 days. Current area at 108k is 105k less than the 2nd lowest.

East Siberian Sea (ESS) Currently at #2 position (by a smidgeon).

Can anything stop these two seas becoming ice-free this year.

Pacific Gateway
Chukchi Sea
Last year a spectacular melt out. This year? Slow to start, still slow with sea ice area marginally above the 2010's average.

American Shore. The Beaufort Sea Just does not want to melt out. That sea is a mystery to me.
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sedziobs

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1011 on: July 17, 2020, 05:55:08 PM »
Apart from an obstinate lump of solid looking ice on the West side of the New Siberian Islands, sea ice in the Kara Sea is basically kaput. But this sea never completely melts out. This year?
I don't think NSIDC area will ever reach zero unless they apply a mask in the Gulf of Ob and the Yenisey Gulf. The NSIDC algorithm thinks ice is present there year-round. 

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1012 on: July 17, 2020, 06:21:16 PM »
ONE more NSIDC AREA graphs

The Central Arctic Sea (NSIDC Area 3.224 million km2)


I attach both the sea ice AREA and sea ice EXTENT graphs. Note that the y-axis scale & lower limit is the same in both graphs.

The maximum extent loss is 600k  (2012).
The maximum area loss is 1,500k  (2016).

In 2019 both extent and area loss were way below the 2010's average - but 2019 extent still ended up in 2nd place.

This year so far area loss is below that average, extent loss above. But extent loss has barely started. In the end, a new record extent or area minimum requires the Central Arctic Sea ice area and extent to also probably be at record lows. Hence the sometimes fierce debates on the melting thread.

But for me it is that sea ice area graph that shows the increasing vulnerability of Arctic Ocean summer ice.

Next - let's hope Wipneus gets the mid-month PIOMAS data from the Polar Science Centre.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1013 on: July 17, 2020, 07:43:22 PM »
Gerontocrat,
thank you very much for the tables and graphs. What would ASIF look like without your (and Juan's) precise and regular information?
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

forkyfork

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1014 on: July 17, 2020, 08:47:39 PM »
today's nsidc's daily area shows a -140 drop

gregcharles

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1015 on: July 17, 2020, 10:50:34 PM »
Here's something interesting: if JAXA Extent doesn't change at all, it will still set daily records for the next five days. At that point, it will have obliterated all of 2011's daily record lows, and started to eat into 2019's.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1016 on: July 18, 2020, 05:37:43 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 17th, 2020:
     6,675,362 km2, a century drop of -145,203 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 05:49:48 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1017 on: July 18, 2020, 01:08:00 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,675,362 KM2 as at 17-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 145k, 55 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 90k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,772 k, 1,106 k, 16.6% more than the 10 year average of 6,666 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  648 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  780 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  699 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  835 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 67.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 59 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.39 million km2, 0.21 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low remaining melt needs to be 8% or more above average, as happened with remaining melt in 2102, 2015, and 2018
______________________________
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1018 on: July 18, 2020, 03:39:54 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

14-day average is (6954-8942)/14 = -142

2020-07-03  8.942
2020-07-04  8.807  -135
2020-07-05  8.648  -159
2020-07-06  8.455  -193
2020-07-07  8.276  -179
2020-07-08  8.133  -143
2020-07-09  8.037    -96
2020-07-10  7.861  -176
2020-07-11  7.819    -42
2020-07-12  7.747    -72
2020-07-13  7.473  -274
2020-07-14  7.308  -165
2020-07-15  7.188  -120
2020-07-16  7.078  -110
2020-07-17  6.954  -124

Killian

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1019 on: July 18, 2020, 05:14:36 PM »
Apart from an obstinate lump of solid looking ice on the West side of the New Siberian Islands, sea ice in the Kara Sea is basically kaput. But this sea never completely melts out. This year?
I don't think NSIDC area will ever reach zero unless they apply a mask in the Gulf of Ob and the Yenisey Gulf. The NSIDC algorithm thinks ice is present there year-round.

Of course it will if things continue as they are, just maybe not in your lifetime.

grixm

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1020 on: July 18, 2020, 06:02:08 PM »
I don't think NSIDC area will ever reach zero unless they apply a mask in the Gulf of Ob and the Yenisey Gulf. The NSIDC algorithm thinks ice is present there year-round.

Of course it will if things continue as they are, just maybe not in your lifetime.

He means that it is literally impossible for the NSIDC area to reach zero because the model erroneously but consistently reports ice in areas where there is none, such as the gulf of Ob.

Pagophilus

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1021 on: July 18, 2020, 06:18:22 PM »
American Shore. The Beaufort Sea Just does not want to melt out. That sea is a mystery to me.

It may be that the recent persistent high has just kept subtly pushing ice from the east into the Beaufort, crowding the ice there and preventing its rapid decline?
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1022 on: July 18, 2020, 07:15:28 PM »
Apologies if someone already mentioned it, but I thought it worth noting that the sea ice extent as measured by NSIDC on July 17th (6.954 million km2) is already lower than the September minimum extents from 1980 (7.533), 1982 (7.16), 1983 (7.204), 1986 (7.122), 1988 (7.048), 1992 (7.159), and 1996 (7.147).

weatherdude88

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1023 on: July 18, 2020, 09:35:06 PM »
For 7.17.2020, the currently posted NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area data 5-day trailing mean value is 5.230522 (pole hole adjustment) millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 114733.6 square kilometers from the previous day.

NSIDC sea ice area 5-day trailing mean losses are above average.

The single daily value decreased 184,117 square kilometers. NSIDC sea ice area is in third place for the date.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1024 on: July 18, 2020, 09:40:35 PM »
Internet returns - so can I.

NSIDC Total Area as at 17-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,230,522 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 5,230,522    km2      
-337,040    km2   <   2010's average.
 186,410    km2   >   2019
-1,140,205    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -115    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -32    k   loss
Central Seas___   -83    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -20    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -12    k   loss
East Siberian__   -18    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -30    k   loss
Laptev_______   -13    k   loss
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 115 k, 19 k more than the 2010's average loss of 96 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 337 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,140 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 110 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 186 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 170 k more than 2012[/b]   

Note how the Canadian Seas - Hudson, CAA, Baffin are now feeling the heat   

_____________________________
NSIDC Extent - also 5 day trailing average.   
Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 159 k, 67 k more than the 2010's average loss of 92 k

- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.
- 2020 EXTENT is 814 k less than the 2010's average
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,782 k less than the 2000's average
- 2020 EXTENT is 658 k less than 2016
- 2020 EXTENT is 481 k less than 2019
- 2020 EXTENT is 518 k less than 2012


___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1025 on: July 18, 2020, 09:59:39 PM »
The Russian Seas - no comment required.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1026 on: July 19, 2020, 05:39:40 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 18th, 2020:
     6,551,222 km2, a century drop of -124,140 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 05:58:16 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1027 on: July 19, 2020, 07:35:25 AM »
JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent has now reached the 1990s average September minimum (6.55 M km²), almost two months in advance...
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1028 on: July 19, 2020, 09:30:29 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,551,222 KM2 as at 18-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 124k, 36 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 88k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,896 k, 1,142 k, 16.9% more than the 10 year average of 6,754 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  638 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  852 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  751 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  885 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 67.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 58 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.35 million km2, 0.18 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

In every year since 2007 remaining melt results in an extent below 4 million km2.

For a record low remaining melt needs to be 5.5% or more above average, as happened with remaining melt in 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2018

ps: I attach a table showing previous year's minimum extent compared with the current extent.
______________________________
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PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1029 on: July 19, 2020, 02:06:20 PM »
The most recent day where extent did not have a century drop was July 2nd. If these century drops continue for the rest of July, sea ice extent will drop to 5,551,222 square kilometres or lower. The record low for July 31st is currently taken by 2019 at 5,955,851, which is over 400k higher than this extrapolation.
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1030 on: July 19, 2020, 03:53:08 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

7-day average: (6789-7819)/7 = -147
14-day average: (6789-8807)/14 = -144

2020-07-04  8.807
2020-07-05  8.648  -159
2020-07-06  8.455  -193
2020-07-07  8.276  -179
2020-07-08  8.133  -143
2020-07-09  8.037    -96
2020-07-10  7.861  -176
2020-07-11  7.819    -42
2020-07-12  7.747    -72
2020-07-13  7.473  -274
2020-07-14  7.308  -165
2020-07-15  7.188  -120
2020-07-16  7.078  -110
2020-07-17  6.954  -124
2020-07-18  6.789  -165

be cause

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1031 on: July 19, 2020, 05:19:03 PM »
Alphabet's numbers are really adding up .. 3.065 million in 21 days .. averaging 146 sq km pd ..  that's a 31.1% loss .
  b.c.
 
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 05:51:20 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1032 on: July 19, 2020, 05:31:27 PM »
Alphabet's numbers are really adding up .. 3.065 million in 21 days .. averaging 146 sq km pd .. b.c.

It's got to slow down soon.
Else we'll be down to zero in about 45 days. :-|

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1033 on: July 19, 2020, 05:40:30 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,103,698 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 5,103,698    km2      
-371,480    km2   <   2010's average.
 136,017    km2   >   2019
-1,177,909    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -127    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -32    k   loss
Central Seas___   -95    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss
CAA_________   -13    k   loss
East Siberian__   -19    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -35    k   loss
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 127 k, 35 k more than the 2010's average loss of 92 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 371 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,178 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 154 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 136 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 125 k more than 2012[/b]   
___________________________________-
Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 137 k, 50 k more than the 2010's average loss of 87 k

- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.
- 2020 EXTENT is 864 k less than the 2010's average
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,830 k less than the 2000's average
- 2020 EXTENT is 759 k less than 2016
- 2020 EXTENT is 500 k less than 2019
- 2020 EXTENT is 555 k less than 2012
      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1034 on: July 19, 2020, 06:03:25 PM »
Evaluation of sea ice area "relative area wise" Jul 06-Jul 18, 2020
Three seas with daily 10-15% of loss marked in green.
One sea without relevant change:
CAB        +  0 %
Two laggards:
CAA        - 10 %
Beaufort  - 10 %
Slow decrease:
Grønland - 18 %
Medium decrease:
Chukchi  - 20 %
ESS        - 30 %
High decrease:
Barents   - 54 %
Kara       - 55 %
Laptev    - 62 %
Baffin     - 63 %
The leader:
Hudson   - 71 %

Okhotsk, Bering, St. Lawrence melted out. No analysis.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1035 on: July 19, 2020, 06:06:19 PM »
Juan C, what outcome do we get if we use the most conservative historical numbers from now and onward? Where would that minimum end up in terms of SIE?

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1036 on: July 19, 2020, 08:24:42 PM »
Juan C, what outcome do we get if we use the most conservative historical numbers from now and onward? Where would that minimum end up in terms of SIE?
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,551,222 KM2 as at 18-Jul-2020

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.35 million km2, 0.18 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

In every year since 2007 remaining melt results in an extent below 4 million km2.

For a record low remaining melt needs to be 5.5% or more above average, as happened with remaining melt in 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2018
Gerontocrat analyzes the years 2007-2019 on his table (the latest 13 years). According to his latest post, the maximum that we can have is 3.89M km2, if 2020 lose the same ASI than 2013/2014.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jdallen

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1037 on: July 19, 2020, 08:32:09 PM »
Gerontocrat analyzes the years 2007-2019 on his table (the latest 13 years). According to his latest post, the maximum that we can have is 3.89M km2, if 2020 lose the same ASI than 2013/2014.
Thank you for the correction.  I miss-read the tables was using 6.89 million as the starting point.

But confirmed, the possibility of this year not reaching at least 2nd is approximately zero.
This space for Rent.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1038 on: July 19, 2020, 09:08:51 PM »
NSIDC analysis as in JAXA extent posts...

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA:  5,103,698 KM2 as at 18-Jul-2020

- Area loss on this day 127k, 35 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 92k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,260 k, 525 k, 06.8% more than the 10 year average of 7,735 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  136 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  -154 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  125 k MORE than 2012
______________________________
On average 76.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 58 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 2.66 million km2, 0.41 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 2.25 million km2.
________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1039 on: July 19, 2020, 09:33:08 PM »
Thank you Juan C!

Are JAXA numbers only going back to 2000? While 3,89 Mn km2 from 2013-2014 is the most conservative numbers for the last 20 years, how much is that value valid if we use the much more unlikely numbers for the early years1979-2000?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1040 on: July 19, 2020, 09:33:33 PM »
NSIDC EXTENT analysis as in JAXA extent posts...

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,060,420 KM2 as at 18-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 137k, 50 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 87k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,823 k, 1,123 k, (16.8%) more than the 10 year average of 6,700 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  759 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  500 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  555 k LESS than 2012,
- Extent is  831 k LESS than 2007.
_____________________________________________
On average 65.8% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 58 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC-EXTENT-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.58 million km2, 0.19 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.39 million km2.
______________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1041 on: July 20, 2020, 12:06:06 AM »
Thank you Juan C!

Are JAXA numbers only going back to 2000? While 3,89 Mn km2 from 2013-2014 is the most conservative numbers for the last 20 years, how much is that value valid if we use the much more unlikely numbers for the early years1979-2000?
Here are the ADS (JAXA) numbers for all the years (1st. attachment).

It is interesting 2006, that was a very bad year on May, June and the first half of July, but it stopped the strong melting afterwards. 2020 will have 4.24M km2 at the end of the melting season, if it follows the melting of 2006.

Comparing 2005 and 2006, 2005 was the September lowest on record at his time and 2006 was in the path of being the new lowest on record, before it stopped its fast melting (2nd. attachment, NSIDC Graph).

As an anecdote, -in my opinion- 2005 & 2006 were the years that made some scientists think that the IPCC models were very conservative. They published their study on 2007, but it was before the huge melting of the 2007 summer. Of course, after the melt of 2007, this study and specially the graph, became famous.

I miss this graph, that compares the IPCC models with the real values (3rd. & 4th. attachments). I hope they will have it again to evaluate the new models (Sounds hard, but it is a fact to me: I don't trust the old & new IPCC models, if I don't have this graph to show how they really work).

This study was:
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L09501, doi: 10.1029/2007GL029703, 2007
Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast
Julienne Stroeve,1 Marika M. Holland,2 Walt Meier,1 Ted Scambos,1 and Mark Serreze1
Received 15 February 2007; accepted 26 March 2007; published 1 May 2007.

P.S. The years in yellow have not ADS (JAXA) official data. Average used.

P.S. [2] I started on topic and I ended off topic.
I recommend that we follow this subject in "Freeform season chatter and light commentary":
« Last Edit: July 20, 2020, 02:26:54 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Michael Hauber

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1042 on: July 20, 2020, 02:10:33 AM »
Since that chart was released 7 years have passed without the 2012 record being broken.  A new release of CMIP models has seen a more aggressive prediction of Arctic Ice loss.  My best effort to update the chart to 2019 data is:

Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1043 on: July 20, 2020, 02:31:16 AM »
Jim Petit's graph (below) shows the fastest three 'even millions' of extent reduction in the NSIDC record (9+7+7=23 days - graph shows we are 2 days into the next 'bin') [click to enlarge, or 'show image'.] (Click on Jim's site's link for 'updated daily' graph (it is clearer than this screen print!) and other wonderful graphs.)

3.5 bins to go for a new record!

[Edit:  9+7+7=23, not 24...]
« Last Edit: July 20, 2020, 03:15:55 PM by Tor Bejnar »
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1044 on: July 20, 2020, 02:31:53 AM »
Since that chart was released 7 years have passed without the 2012 record being broken.  A new release of CMIP models has seen a more aggressive prediction of Arctic Ice loss.  My best effort to update the chart to 2019 data is:
I started on topic and I ended off topic.
I recommend that we follow this subject in "Freeform season chatter and light commentary":
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1045 on: July 20, 2020, 05:38:27 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 19th, 2020:
     6,448,219 km2, a century drop of -103,003 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: July 20, 2020, 05:53:49 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1046 on: July 20, 2020, 12:28:38 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,448,219 KM2 as at 19-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 103k, 21 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 82k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,999 k, 1,163 k, 17.0% more than the 10 year average of 6,836 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  622 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  892 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  767 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  899 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 68.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 57 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.33 million km2, 0.16 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low remaining melt needs to be 5.5 5.0% or more above average, as happened with remaining melt in 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2018

In every year from 2007 to 2019 remaining melt results in an extent below 3.96 million km2, which was the 2nd lowest extent in 2019.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1047 on: July 20, 2020, 03:20:03 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,980,817 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,980,817    km2      
-403,188    km2   <   2010's average.
 94,993    km2   >   2019
-1,213,294    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -123    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -21    k   loss
Central Seas___   -102    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -17    k   loss
CAA_________   -12    k   loss
East Siberian__   -26    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -28    k   loss
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 123 k, 32 k more than the 2010's average loss of 91 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 403 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,213 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 209 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 95 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 89 k more than 2012[/b]   
____________________
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 19-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,940,656 KM2

Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 120 k, 29 k more than the 2010's average loss of 91 k

- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.
- 2020 EXTENT is 893 k less than the 2010's average
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,861 k less than the 2000's average
- 2020 EXTENT is 837 k less than 2016
- 2020 EXTENT is 497 k less than 2019
- 2020 EXTENT is 572 k less than 2012

___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1048 on: July 20, 2020, 04:14:48 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

2020-07-05  8.648
2020-07-06  8.455  -193
2020-07-07  8.276  -179
2020-07-08  8.133  -143
2020-07-09  8.037    -96
2020-07-10  7.861  -176
2020-07-11  7.819    -42
2020-07-12  7.747    -72
2020-07-13  7.473  -274
2020-07-14  7.308  -165
2020-07-15  7.188  -120
2020-07-16  7.078  -110
2020-07-17  6.954  -124
2020-07-18  6.789  -165
2020-07-19  6.710    -79

FrostKing70

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1049 on: July 20, 2020, 04:23:12 PM »