Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data  (Read 456062 times)

igs

  • Guest
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1050 on: July 20, 2020, 08:23:48 PM »
I thought this article summarized what is happening very well:

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/baked-by-midsummer-sun-arctic-sea-ice-could-face-worst-losses-on-record/

If they only would measure the thickness of that icefloe and publish it, just that singel number would help a lot to assume what's coming next, In-Situ melt or a more moderate rest of the season once the lows and the sun-angle are going to slow top-melt down.


All their buoys (that can measure ice thickness) are currently down (Inactive/Pending) since days but they could still take a visual and do a manual approx measure to give the world an idea.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2071
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1001
  • Likes Given: 726
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1051 on: July 21, 2020, 05:33:44 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 20th, 2020:
     6,333,877 km2, a century drop of -114,342 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: July 21, 2020, 05:52:09 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2071
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1001
  • Likes Given: 726
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1052 on: July 21, 2020, 08:16:40 AM »
ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)
A quick look to minimums:

On July 20th, the year 2020 has already pass the minimum of 18 years (and there is more than one month and a half to the end of the melting season).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3727
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1053 on: July 21, 2020, 11:35:28 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,333,877 KM2 as at 20-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 114k, 25 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 89k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,114 k, 1,188 k, 17.2% more than the 10 year average of 6,925 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  642 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  895 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  823 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  911 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 69.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 56 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.31 million km2, 0.13 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low remaining melt needs to be  4.3% or more above average, as happened with remaining melt in 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2018
For the minimum to be above 4.0 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  22.9% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.

In every year from 2007 to 2019 remaining melt results in an extent below 3.96 million km2, which was the 2nd lowest extent in 2019.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

viggovang

  • New ice
  • Posts: 3
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1054 on: July 21, 2020, 02:16:32 PM »
Record leads over previous lows.

For each month this table shows the date and size of the maximum lead over the previous low using the VISHOP Extent data:

Date of new low   New low      Date of prev. low    Previous low          Lead
2005/01/22       13,209,681       2004/01/22         13,720,961       -511,280
2005/02/19       13,814,486       2004/02/19         14,570,793       -756,307
2005/03/27       13,828,610       2004/03/27         14,394,437       -565,827
2004/04/20       13,024,968       1995/04/20         13,586,119       -561,151
2016/05/16       11,197,909       2015/05/16         11,806,520       -608,611
2010/06/29         8,941,910       2006/06/29           9,405,346       -463,436
2007/07/28         6,410,368       2006/07/28           7,254,560       -844,192
2007/08/29         4,471,798       2005/08/29           5,606,865    -1,135,067
2007/09/10         4,144,892       2005/09/10           5,443,272    -1,298,380
2007/10/15         5,454,601       2005/10/15           6,915,101    -1,460,500
2016/11/19         8,302,669       2012/11/19           9,405,060    -1,102,391
2006/12/01         9,999,765       2005/12/01         10,782,722       -782,957

Notice that neither 2012 or 2020 appears in this list. If we look at daily record leads for all 365 days, the year 2007 has the most records with 106 days, followed by 2005 with 68 days and 2016 with 62 days. 2012 has the record for only 8 days and 2020 has the record for a mere 3 days (the last three days).Here is the full list:

Year        Daily records
2007      106
2005        68
2016        62
2006        53
2004        31
2010        22
2012          8
2015          5
2019          4
2017          3
2020          3

It will be interesting to see if 2020 will beat the July record held by 2007 on 28/07. The daily data can be downloaded here: https://tinyurl.com/yyk74uwz

Alphabet Hotel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 343
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1055 on: July 21, 2020, 02:59:46 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

7-day average:  (6600-7473)/7  = -125
14-day average: (6600-8455)/14 = -133

2020-07-06  8.455
2020-07-07  8.276  -179
2020-07-08  8.133  -143
2020-07-09  8.037    -96
2020-07-10  7.861  -176
2020-07-11  7.819    -42
2020-07-12  7.747    -72
2020-07-13  7.473  -274
2020-07-14  7.308  -165
2020-07-15  7.188  -120
2020-07-16  7.078  -110
2020-07-17  6.954  -124
2020-07-18  6.789  -165
2020-07-19  6.710    -79
2020-07-20  6.600  -110

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3727
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1056 on: July 21, 2020, 03:25:45 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,862,235 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,862,235    km2      
-426,605    km2   <   2010's average.
 63,777    km2   >   2019
-1,250,126    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -119    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas___   -104    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -18    k   loss
CAA_________   -15    k   loss
East Siberian__   -34    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -22    k   loss
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 119 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average loss of 95 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 427 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,250 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 249 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 64 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 68 k more than 2012[/b]         
___________________________________________         
Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 117 k, 27 k more than the 2010's average loss of 90 k            
            
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.            
- 2020 EXTENT is 920 k less than the 2010's average            
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,890 k less than the 2000's average            
- 2020 EXTENT is 898 k less than 2016            
- 2020 EXTENT is 507 k less than 2019             
- 2020 EXTENT is 616 k less than 2012
            
___________________________________________            
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

liefde

  • New ice
  • Posts: 55
  • ice melt will trump donald
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1057 on: July 22, 2020, 01:20:05 AM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,862,235 KM2         

Sea ice area loss on this day 119 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average loss of 95 k         
         
- 2020 Area is 68 k more than 2012[/b]         
Wow, so in 2-3 days we'll also see the alltime SI area record broken. That's a first, both extent and area at this level this early.

weatherdude88

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 154
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1058 on: July 22, 2020, 03:21:02 AM »
For 7.20.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 4.671064 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 84,614 square kilometers from the previous day.

The change from the previous daily value, over the past five days are as follows:

-140,430 (7.16)
-184,117 (7.17)
-119,271 (7.18)
-63,692 (7.19)
-84,614 (7.20)

The 2-day trailing average shows a reduction of 74,153 square kilometers per day. The slowdown may be here.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2071
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1001
  • Likes Given: 726
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1059 on: July 22, 2020, 05:35:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 21st, 2020:
     6,234,092 km2, an almost century drop of -99,785 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

And almost 1M km2 difference between 2020 & 2010 Average.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2020, 05:52:17 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3727
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1060 on: July 22, 2020, 10:44:25 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,234,092 KM2 as at 21-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 100k, 15 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 85k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,214 k, 1,203 k, 17.2% more than the 10 year average of 7,010 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  627 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  940 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  871 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  901 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 70.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 55 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.29 million km2, 0.12 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low, remaining melt needs to be  3.9% or more above average, as happened with remaining melt in 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2018
For the minimum to be above 4.0 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  24.0% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.

In every year from 2007 to 2019 remaining melt results in an extent below 3.96 million km2, which was the 2nd lowest extent in 2019.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

liefde

  • New ice
  • Posts: 55
  • ice melt will trump donald
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1061 on: July 22, 2020, 01:51:20 PM »
- Extent loss on this day 100k, 15 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 85k,

On average 70.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 55 days to minimum

For a record low, remaining melt needs to be  3.9% or more above average, as happened with remaining melt in 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2018
Extent loss was 15k more than average (of 85k), that's more than 17%. If only we need 3.9% to reach that record low, we're in for a record low alright. Yesterday's loss was more than 20% over average. Even when assuming losses will miraculously slow down, we have at least 4 melt-days until we reach the non-record percentage. Then within the ~54 days of melt left, losses should go below that 3.9% over average for at least ~30 days. Naa, ain't gonna happen. Earth still accumulated 126 million Hiroshima bomb detonations worth of energy the past year. That energy had to go somewhere.

Alison

  • New ice
  • Posts: 56
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 145
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1062 on: July 22, 2020, 03:08:19 PM »
Quote
0.12 million km2

0.11? Been fascinating watching this projection number tick down over the days...  :)

Pagophilus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 509
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 271
  • Likes Given: 419
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1063 on: July 22, 2020, 03:09:15 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,862,235 KM2         

Sea ice area loss on this day 119 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average loss of 95 k         
         
- 2020 Area is 68 k more than 2012[/b]         
Wow, so in 2-3 days we'll also see the alltime SI area record broken. That's a first, both extent and area at this level this early.

Heady stuff, I agree.   :o    And yet it will be when/if dispersion occurs, and extent loss (not ice loss) temporarily slows or reverses, that we will be in really massive trouble.
Person.  Woman.  Man.  Vote.  November.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3727
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1064 on: July 22, 2020, 04:31:03 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 21-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,763,569 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,763,569    km2      
-430,973    km2   <   2010's average.
 38,337    km2   >   2019
-1,268,226    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -99    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -10    k   loss
Central Seas___   -88    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -16    k   loss
CAA_________   -12    k   loss
East Siberian__   -42    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______   -10    k   loss
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 99 k, 5 k more than the 2010's average loss of 94 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 431 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,268 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 262 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 38 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 42 k more than 2012[/b]         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 120 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average loss of 96 k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 945 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,913 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 945 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 512 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 675 k less than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3727
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1065 on: July 22, 2020, 07:01:41 PM »
Some NSIDC Area Graphs

Kara - area loss stalled.
Laptev still crashing out to zero.
ESS - following Laptev.

Central Arctic Sea - sea ice area below 2010's average, and lower than 2019, but above 2012 & 2016.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

weatherdude88

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 154
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1066 on: July 22, 2020, 07:33:38 PM »
For 7.21.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 4.630932 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 40,132 square kilometers from the previous day.

The change from the previous daily value, over the past five days are as follows:

-184,117 (7.17)
-119,271 (7.18)
-63,692 (7.19)
-84,614 (7.20)
-40,132 (7.21)

The 3-day trailing mean shows a loss of 62,813 square kilometers per day. It is likely the NSIDC 5-day trailing sea ice area mean will show below average losses within the next two days. NSIDC and JAXA sea ice compaction continue to increase.



Alphabet Hotel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 343
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1067 on: July 22, 2020, 11:12:10 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

7-day average:  (6475-7308)/7  = -119
14-day average: (6475-8276)/14 = -129

2020-07-07  8.276
2020-07-08  8.133  -143
2020-07-09  8.037    -96
2020-07-10  7.861  -176
2020-07-11  7.819    -42
2020-07-12  7.747    -72
2020-07-13  7.473  -274
2020-07-14  7.308  -165
2020-07-15  7.188  -120
2020-07-16  7.078  -110
2020-07-17  6.954  -124
2020-07-18  6.789  -165
2020-07-19  6.710    -79
2020-07-20  6.600  -110
2020-07-21  6.475  -125

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2071
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1001
  • Likes Given: 726
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1068 on: July 23, 2020, 05:33:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 22nd, 2020:
     6,116,303 km2, a century drop of -117,789 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

2020: -926K km2 versus 2012.   :P
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 07:24:37 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3727
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1069 on: July 23, 2020, 09:41:48 AM »
I am stunned by the sheer persistence of this above average extent loss.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,116,303 KM2 as at 22-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 118k, 35 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 83k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,331 k, 1,238 k, 17.5% more than the 10 year average of 7,093 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  629 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  1,011 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  926 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  903 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 71.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 54 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.26 million km2, 0.08 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low, remaining melt needs to be  2.8% or more above average, as happened with remaining melt in 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2018
For the minimum to be above 4.0 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  25.9% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.

In every year from 2007 to 2019 remaining melt results in an extent below 3.96 million km2, which was the 2nd lowest extent in 2019.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3727
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1070 on: July 23, 2020, 03:38:00 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,673,890 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,673,890    km2      
-432,913    km2   <   2010's average.
-1,734    km2   <   2019
-1,277,300    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -90    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -13    k   loss
Central Seas___   -77    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -12    k   loss
CAA_________   -7    k   loss
East Siberian__   -40    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 90 k, 2 k more than the 2010's average loss of 88 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 433 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,277 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 277 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 2 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 20 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 22-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,577,857 KM2

NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 125 k, 35 k more than the 2010's average loss of 90k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 980 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,938 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 978 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 543 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 740 k less than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 343
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1071 on: July 23, 2020, 04:24:12 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

7-day average:  (6330-7188)/7  = -123
14-day average: (6330-8133)/14 = -129

2020-07-08  8.133
2020-07-09  8.037    -96
2020-07-10  7.861  -176
2020-07-11  7.819    -42
2020-07-12  7.747    -72
2020-07-13  7.473  -274
2020-07-14  7.308  -165
2020-07-15  7.188  -120
2020-07-16  7.078  -110
2020-07-17  6.954  -124
2020-07-18  6.789  -165
2020-07-19  6.710    -79
2020-07-20  6.600  -110
2020-07-21  6.475  -125
2020-07-22  6.330  -145

JNap

  • New ice
  • Posts: 34
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 34
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1072 on: July 23, 2020, 06:33:12 PM »
To put some content around the amount of extent loss that has occurred over the past 24 days from June 29 through July 22, the table below shows the total extent loss for each year starting in 2001.  It also lists the percentage drop of the extent that year.

2020 leads in both extent loss (with more that 3.06 million km2) as well as percentage loss (33.4%). 

In terms of extent loss, 2007 and 2013 with losses of approximate 2.7 million, are about 300k behind 2020.  After that, the next closest year was 2019 with 2.44 million extent loss, approximately 600k behind 2020 for that period.

Year    Extent Loss    Percent Decline
2001   -1,630,836   -16.2%
2002   -2,148,569   -20.4%
2003   -1,945,950   -18.9%
2004   -1,604,575   -15.6%
2005   -2,038,679   -20.9%
2006   -1,806,967   -19.1%
2007   -2,716,544   -27.9%
2008   -2,096,592   -21.1%
2009   -2,406,101   -24.0%
2010   -1,559,462   -17.3%
2011   -2,364,505   -25.8%
2012   -2,240,915   -24.1%
2013   -2,725,735   -27.7%
2014   -1,998,228   -21.4%
2015   -2,325,684   -24.2%
2016   -1,956,457   -21.5%
2017   -2,145,284   -23.3%
2018   -2,032,152   -21.4%
2019   -2,444,626   -26.6%
2020   -3,063,773   -33.4%
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 07:51:33 PM by JNap »
Science matters.

weatherdude88

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 154
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1073 on: July 23, 2020, 08:28:31 PM »
For 7.22.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 4.490098 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 140,834 square kilometers from the previous day.

2020 now has the lowest sea ice area value for the date on record.

The change from the previous daily value, over the past five days are as follows:

-119,271 (7.18)
-63,692 (7.19)
-84,614 (7.20)
-40,132 (7.21)
-140,834 (7.22)



glennbuck

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 337
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1074 on: July 24, 2020, 01:04:05 AM »
To put some content around the amount of extent loss that has occurred over the past 24 days from June 29 through July 22, the table below shows the total extent loss for each year starting in 2001.  It also lists the percentage drop of the extent that year.

2020 leads in both extent loss (with more that 3.06 million km2) as well as percentage loss (33.4%). 

In terms of extent loss, 2007 and 2013 with losses of approximate 2.7 million, are about 300k behind 2020.  After that, the next closest year was 2019 with 2.44 million extent loss, approximately 600k behind 2020 for that period.

Year    Extent Loss    Percent Decline
2001   -1,630,836   -16.2%
2002   -2,148,569   -20.4%
2003   -1,945,950   -18.9%
2004   -1,604,575   -15.6%
2005   -2,038,679   -20.9%
2006   -1,806,967   -19.1%
2007   -2,716,544   -27.9%
2008   -2,096,592   -21.1%
2009   -2,406,101   -24.0%
2010   -1,559,462   -17.3%
2011   -2,364,505   -25.8%
2012   -2,240,915   -24.1%
2013   -2,725,735   -27.7%
2014   -1,998,228   -21.4%
2015   -2,325,684   -24.2%
2016   -1,956,457   -21.5%
2017   -2,145,284   -23.3%
2018   -2,032,152   -21.4%
2019   -2,444,626   -26.6%
2020   -3,063,773   -33.4%

Great info, i was looking at something similar 1st July to 31st July extent loss, from the JAXA data.
 
2007 -3,090,000
2008 -2,640,000
2009 - 2,920,000
2010 - 2.070,000
2011 - 2.680,000
2012- 2.840,000
2013 - 2,750,000
2014 - 2,180,000
2015 -2,870,000
2016 - 2,450,000
2017 - 2.480,000
2018 - 2,850,000
2019 -2,950,000
2020- 2,704,000 on 22nd of July with 9 days to go!

80,000 km^2 for 9 days average would finish 2020, 1st July-31st July at 3,424,000 million km^2 extent loss.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2020, 03:14:07 AM by glennbuck »

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1075 on: July 24, 2020, 05:29:56 AM »
Today on JAXA looks like a -75,000K day. 

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

MrGreeny

  • New ice
  • Posts: 45
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1076 on: July 24, 2020, 05:36:58 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 23rd, 2020:
     6,047,141km2, a extent drop of -69,162 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2020, 03:21:44 PM by MrGreeny »
The ice spins right round baby right round, like a record baby right round round round ~

Ktb

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 112
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1077 on: July 24, 2020, 05:49:59 AM »
Can people please just wait for JCG and Gerontocrat to do their things. It is always funny watching people try to jockey for the honorable position of daily data updater.

It clutters the thread, it doesn't look as nice or neat.

I say this gently, it is most typically new posters who do this. When I was new I was afraid to contribute to the main melting season threads. Still am for the most part. Read. Learn. Find a new way to look at data and then post here. Don't try to horn in by being 14 minutes earlier than JCG.
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6298
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2315
  • Likes Given: 1954
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1078 on: July 24, 2020, 08:36:07 AM »
As long as users post data ir's ok. Maybe not always useful but no harm. Thanks to all who make the effort.

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 715
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 166
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1079 on: July 24, 2020, 08:45:49 AM »
As long as users post data ir's ok.
Thanks.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3727
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1080 on: July 24, 2020, 11:41:40 AM »
Extent loss down to well below 100k - a blip or the shape of things to come ?

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,047,141 KM2 as at 23-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 69k, 5 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 74k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,401 k, 1,233 k, 17.2% more than the 10 year average of 7,168 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  618 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  1,021 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  892 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  847 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 72.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 53 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.26 million km2, 0.09 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low, remaining melt needs to be  3.1% or more above average, as happened with remaining melt in 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2018
For the minimum to be above 4.0 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  26.4% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.

In every year from 2007 to 2019 remaining melt results in an extent below 3.96 million km2, which was the 2nd lowest extent in 2019.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3727
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1081 on: July 24, 2020, 03:54:56 PM »
On this day Area & Extent loss lower but still above the 10 year average for the day

NSIDC Total Area as at 23-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,588,847 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,588,847    km2      
-438,500    km2   <   2010's average.
-57,823    km2   <   2019
-1,281,197    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -85    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -7    k   loss
Central Seas___   -78    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -15    k   loss
CAA_________   -8    k   loss
East Siberian__   -37    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 85 k, 4 k more than the 2010's average loss of 81 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 439 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,281 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 303 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 58 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 9 k less than 2012[/b]         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 23-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,480,367 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 97 k, 10 k more than the 2010's average loss of 87k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 985 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,935 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 985 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 513 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 777 k less than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 343
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1082 on: July 24, 2020, 04:18:50 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

7-day average:  (6301-7078)/7  = -111
14-day average: (6301-8037)/14 = -124

2020-07-09  8.037
2020-07-10  7.861  -176
2020-07-11  7.819    -42
2020-07-12  7.747    -72
2020-07-13  7.473  -274
2020-07-14  7.308  -165
2020-07-15  7.188  -120
2020-07-16  7.078  -110
2020-07-17  6.954  -124
2020-07-18  6.789  -165
2020-07-19  6.710    -79
2020-07-20  6.600  -110
2020-07-21  6.475  -125
2020-07-22  6.330  -145
2020-07-23  6.301    -29

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3727
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1083 on: July 24, 2020, 05:25:29 PM »
JAXA Extent -Comparisons with other years

With Juan having a bit of a rest (I hope - he certainly deserves one**) while others take up the slack, I attach my not-as-good-as-Juan's table of variations of Jaxa extent c.f. previous years from 2000.

I also attach another not-as-good-as-Juan's table, this one showing extent on this day c.f. previous years MINIMA from 2000. As extent diminishes 2020 will slide down the table.
___________________________________________
** Juan can't go to bed until the JAXA data arrives, and sometimes it doesn't..
Me, I can yawn, scratch my arse, get up, have a coffee or 3 and only then wake my laptop up.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 715
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 166
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1084 on: July 24, 2020, 08:10:16 PM »
I’d be surprised if you could read those numbers that you display, Gero. I certainly can’t, and I don’t need glasses.

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2466
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1180
  • Likes Given: 1027
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1085 on: July 24, 2020, 08:34:49 PM »
You can actually click to enlarge.
Plus you might need them. Just check.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 486
  • Likes Given: 238
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1086 on: July 24, 2020, 08:37:40 PM »
Evaluation of the individual seas "relative area wise" July 11-23, 2020
The big laggard:
CAB        -   6%
On the slower side:
Grønland - 15%
Chukchi   - 16%
Beaufort  - 20%
CAA         - 25%
Fast ice area losers:
ESS         - 48%
Kara        - 48%
Barents    - 52%
Ahead of the others:
Hudson    - 65%
Baffin      - 67%
The "winner":
Laptev     - 78%

Just as a note: Hudson, Baffin, Barents, Kara and Laptev contain together only ca. 0.22 M km² of ice. Big daily losses are no longer possible there. So it is up to ESS, Chuckchi, CAA and mostly Beaufort to speed up to keep the pace ice melt had in July 2020.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2071
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1001
  • Likes Given: 726
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1087 on: July 24, 2020, 11:57:39 PM »
Can people please just wait for JCG and Gerontocrat to do their things. It is always funny watching people try to jockey for the honorable position of daily data updater.

As long as users post data ir's ok. Maybe not always useful but no harm. Thanks to all who make the effort.

JAXA Extent -Comparisons with other years

With Juan having a bit of a rest (I hope - he certainly deserves one**) while others take up the slack, I attach my not-as-good-as-Juan's table of variations of Jaxa extent c.f. previous years from 2000.

I also attach another not-as-good-as-Juan's table, this one showing extent on this day c.f. previous years MINIMA from 2000. As extent diminishes 2020 will slide down the table.
___________________________________________
** Juan can't go to bed until the JAXA data arrives, and sometimes it doesn't..
Me, I can yawn, scratch my arse, get up, have a coffee or 3 and only then wake my laptop up.

Thank you all for your comments. The true is that it is hard to be the one that has the job to post 10 or 15 minutes after ADS makes public their data. Sometimes I want to go to bed earlier and sometimes I am doing other stuff and I have to leave it, just because it is the time to post. So, sometimes I just want to skip the post.

Yesterday I was watching Netflix with my wife and I have to stop watching, to make the post 15 minutes later than usual. In a way, it was a relief to saw the posts of Frivolousz21 and MrGreeny (*). I decided to return to watch TV. I think there is not harm if I don't post every single day.

So, thank you, Frivolousz21 and MrGreeny.

I understand the excitement that we have now, with all the records that are being broken. I share this excitement, so, as it is said on boxing, I am not throwing the towel. I will look to continue posting.

If I haven't made the post in 15 minutes after the JAXA data has been released, please feel free to make the post.
 
________________________
(*) P.S. A great relief that there was not a century drop...  :)
« Last Edit: July 25, 2020, 12:41:33 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2071
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1001
  • Likes Given: 726
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1088 on: July 25, 2020, 05:37:42 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 24th, 2020:
     6,042,112 km2, a small drop of -5,029 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: July 25, 2020, 05:51:07 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3295
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 204
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1089 on: July 25, 2020, 10:18:05 AM »
Can people please just wait for JCG and Gerontocrat to do their things. It is always funny watching people try to jockey for the honorable position of daily data updater.

As long as users post data ir's ok. Maybe not always useful but no harm. Thanks to all who make the effort.



JAXA Extent -Comparisons with other years

With Juan having a bit of a rest (I hope - he certainly deserves one**) while others take up the slack, I attach my not-as-good-as-Juan's table of variations of Jaxa extent c.f. previous years from 2000.

I also attach another not-as-good-as-Juan's table, this one showing extent on this day c.f. previous years MINIMA from 2000. As extent diminishes 2020 will slide down the table.
___________________________________________
** Juan can't go to bed until the JAXA data arrives, and sometimes it doesn't..
Me, I can yawn, scratch my arse, get up, have a coffee or 3 and only then wake my laptop up.

Thank you all for your comments. The true is that it is hard to be the one that has the job to post 10 or 15 minutes after ADS makes public their data. Sometimes I want to go to bed earlier and sometimes I am doing other stuff and I have to leave it, just because it is the time to post. So, sometimes I just want to skip the post.

Yesterday I was watching Netflix with my wife and I have to stop watching, to make the post 15 minutes later than usual. In a way, it was a relief to saw the posts of Frivolousz21 and MrGreeny (*). I decided to return to watch TV. I think there is not harm if I don't post every single day.

So, thank you, Frivolousz21 and MrGreeny.

I understand the excitement that we have now, with all the records that are being broken. I share this excitement, so, as it is said on boxing, I am not throwing the towel. I will look to continue posting.

If I haven't made the post in 15 minutes after the JAXA data has been released, please feel free to make the post.
 
________________________
(*) P.S. A great relief that there was not a century drop...  :)



I know how stressful it can be.

Espen
Have a ice day!

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3727
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1090 on: July 25, 2020, 12:44:51 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,042,112 KM2 as at 24-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 5k, 89 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 94k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,406 k, 1,144 k, 15.8% more than the 10 year average of 7,261 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  575 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  948 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  668 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  744 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 73.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 52 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.35 million km2, 0.17 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low, remaining melt needs to be  6.5% or more above average, as happened with remaining melt in 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2018
For the minimum to be above 4.0 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  24.1% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.

In every year from 2007 to 2019 remaining melt results in an extent below 3.96 million km2, which was the 2nd lowest extent in 2019.

On this day the lowest daily extent loss certainly since 2002, on the day 2012 had a massive 229k drop.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3727
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1091 on: July 25, 2020, 03:18:23 PM »
Are we in a transition from one Arctic weather pattern to another, and if so, what will be the effect on sea ice extent and area. Don't ask me - not a clue.

NSIDC Total Area as at 24-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,505,320 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,505,320    km2      
-441,318    km2   <   2010's average.
-94,340    km2   <   2019
-1,283,228    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -84    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -9    k   loss
Central Seas___   -75    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -15    k   loss
CAA_________   -13    k   loss
East Siberian__   -26    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 84 k, 3 k more than the 2010's average loss of 81 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 441 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,283 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 315 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 94 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 30 k less than 2012[/b]         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 24-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,400,666 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 80 k, 4 k less than the 2010's average loss of 84k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 981 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,914 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 982 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 516 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 794 k less than 2012
   

Daily NSIDC extent increased by 10 k on this day, after a very low loss the day before.      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3727
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1092 on: July 25, 2020, 03:39:27 PM »
Some NSIDC AREA Graphs

The Laggards

The CAA
after an extremely exaggerated hiatus has resumed area losses, and area is now back down to the 2010's average.

The Beaufort  Sea melt might just have swung into action after a very slow start. Area has just dropped to below the 2000's average.

The Chukchi Sea melt has been very much average, following 2012 rather than the amazing 2019. Area is currently above the 2010's average.

The Central Arctic Sea. Although area is well above that of 2012 & 2016, area is well below 2019 and just below the 2010's average.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2020, 06:51:44 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3727
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1093 on: July 25, 2020, 03:54:09 PM »
Some NSIDC AREA Graphs

The Sprinters

The Kara Sea
Is doing its usual end of melting dither to minimum.

The Laptev Sea After its spectacular melt the Gompertz curve has imposed itself, slowing melt. However, we are looking at record open water throughout the entire period of high insolation.

The ESS Sea melt has also been very much average, and seems destined to imitate the Laptev & Kara seas melt out.

The sheer quantity of above average energy gain in these seas of the Russian Shore must be a record.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2020, 04:03:45 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 343
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1094 on: July 25, 2020, 04:11:11 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

7-day average:  (6311-6954)/7  = -92
14-day average: (6311-7861)/14 = -111

2020-07-10  7.861
2020-07-11  7.819    -42
2020-07-12  7.747    -72
2020-07-13  7.473  -274
2020-07-14  7.308  -165
2020-07-15  7.188  -120
2020-07-16  7.078  -110
2020-07-17  6.954  -124
2020-07-18  6.789  -165
2020-07-19  6.710    -79
2020-07-20  6.600  -110
2020-07-21  6.475  -125
2020-07-22  6.330  -145
2020-07-23  6.301    -29
2020-07-24  6.311  +10

MrGreeny

  • New ice
  • Posts: 45
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1095 on: July 26, 2020, 12:38:07 AM »

Thank you all for your comments. The true is that it is hard to be the one that has the job to post 10 or 15 minutes after ADS makes public their data. Sometimes I want to go to bed earlier and sometimes I am doing other stuff and I have to leave it, just because it is the time to post. So, sometimes I just want to skip the post.

Yesterday I was watching Netflix with my wife and I have to stop watching, to make the post 15 minutes later than usual. In a way, it was a relief to saw the posts of Frivolousz21 and MrGreeny (*). I decided to return to watch TV. I think there is not harm if I don't post every single day.

So, thank you, Frivolousz21 and MrGreeny.

I understand the excitement that we have now, with all the records that are being broken. I share this excitement, so, as it is said on boxing, I am not throwing the towel. I will look to continue posting.

If I haven't made the post in 15 minutes after the JAXA data has been released, please feel free to make the post.

You're welcome, guess I saved you the trouble of having to post so you could continue watching what ever it was on Netflix :P Wonder if today we'll see a small drop again, forecasts are not looking very good at the moment so... we'll see.
The ice spins right round baby right round, like a record baby right round round round ~

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2071
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1001
  • Likes Given: 726
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1096 on: July 26, 2020, 05:35:43 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 25th, 2020:
     5,994,562 km2, a drop of -47,550 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: July 26, 2020, 05:49:42 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3727
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1097 on: July 26, 2020, 03:32:42 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,994,562 KM2 as at 25-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 48k, 26 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 74k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,453 k, 1,117 k, 15.2% more than the 10 year average of 7,336 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  514 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  918 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  623 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  697 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 73.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 51 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.38 million km2, 0.20 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low, remaining melt needs to be  7.7% or more above average, as happened with remaining melt in just 2 years, 2012 & 2016.
For the minimum to be above 4.0 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  23.7% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.

In every year from 2007 to 2019 remaining melt results in an extent below 3.96 million km2, which was the 2nd lowest extent in 2019.

As we approach the end of the season, with less remaining melt, daily extent losses are likely to enter the wobbly season.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3727
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1098 on: July 26, 2020, 04:03:22 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,419,485 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,419,485    km2      
-459,915    km2   <   2010's average.
-143,632    km2   <   2019
-1,289,155    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -86    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -11    k   loss
Central Seas___   -74    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -13    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss
CAA_________   -15    k   loss
East Siberian__   -21    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -18    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 86 k, 19 k more than the 2010's average loss of 67 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 460 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,289 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 333 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 144 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 73 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 25-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,329,768 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 71 k, 10 k less than the 2010's average loss of 81k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 970 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,888 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 988 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 498 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 783 k less than 2012
   
__________________________________________
Area loss above average, extent loss below average. Is it the start of a tend or a blip?
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
« Last Edit: July 26, 2020, 04:07:17 PM by oren »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 343
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1099 on: July 26, 2020, 05:54:30 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

7-day average:  (6246-6789)/7  = -78
14-day average: (6246-7819)/14 = -112

2020-07-11  7.819
2020-07-12  7.747    -72
2020-07-13  7.473  -274
2020-07-14  7.308  -165
2020-07-15  7.188  -120
2020-07-16  7.078  -110
2020-07-17  6.954  -124
2020-07-18  6.789  -165
2020-07-19  6.710    -79
2020-07-20  6.600  -110
2020-07-21  6.475  -125
2020-07-22  6.330  -145
2020-07-23  6.301    -29
2020-07-24  6.311    +10
2020-07-25  6.246    -65