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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1250 on: August 12, 2020, 04:03:14 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

7-day average:  (5579 − 5783) / 7  =  −29
14-day average: (5579 − 6221) / 14  =  −46

2020-07-28  6.221
2020-07-29  6.090  −131
2020-07-30  6.069    −21
2020-07-31  6.036    −33
2020-08-01  5.976    −60
2020-08-02  5.852  −124
2020-08-03  5.790    −62
2020-08-04  5.783      −7
2020-08-05  5.860    +77
2020-08-06  5.812    −48
2020-08-07  5.760    −52
2020-08-08  5.645  −115
2020-08-09  5.549    −96
2020-08-10  5.595    +46
2020-08-11  5.579    −16

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1251 on: August 12, 2020, 09:06:30 PM »
Juan C & Gerontocrat: seems like good odds that melting rate this month could be record low unless it doesn't speed up soon.
JAXA Arctic Sea Ice losses in August (31.7. to 31.8. of each year, values in M km²). Bold: Exceptional values, compared to the other years.
2005: -1.48
2006: -1.25
2007: -1.82
2008: -2.25
2009: -1.53
2000s ave: -1.61
2010: -1.63
2011: -1.83
2012: -2.59
2013: -1.64
2014: -1.54
2015: -2.12
2016: -2.20

2017: -1.77
2018: -1.69
2019: -1.70
2010s ave: -1.87

2020 has so far lost 0.53 M km². A little more than a third of the month has passed, and the slope of decrease decreases towards the end of the month. A place in the lower part of the ranking list seems possible.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1252 on: August 13, 2020, 05:40:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 12th, 2020:
     5,184,791 km2, a drop of -46,565 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: August 13, 2020, 05:52:44 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1253 on: August 13, 2020, 04:06:19 PM »
The entire .colorado.edu Internet domain has disappeared this morning. So there may be some delay in getting NSIDC daily extent numbers, unless someone has an alternate source.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1254 on: August 13, 2020, 09:52:42 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

7-day average:  (5484 − 5860) / 7  =  −54
14-day average: (5484 − 6090) / 14  =  −43

2020-07-29  6.090
2020-07-30  6.069    −21
2020-07-31  6.036    −33
2020-08-01  5.976    −60
2020-08-02  5.852  −124
2020-08-03  5.790    −62
2020-08-04  5.783      −7
2020-08-05  5.860    +77
2020-08-06  5.812    −48
2020-08-07  5.760    −52
2020-08-08  5.645  −115
2020-08-09  5.549    −96
2020-08-10  5.595    +46
2020-08-11  5.579    −16
2020-08-12  5.484    −95

glennbuck

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1255 on: August 13, 2020, 11:10:45 PM »
Arctic sea ice area for Aug 12th,  3,216,550 km^2. NSIDC Daily Area. Change from yesterday of  136,263 km^2

lowests minimum: 2.241 (2012), 2.477 (2016)
(2019) minimum: 2.960
« Last Edit: August 13, 2020, 11:21:44 PM by glennbuck »

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1256 on: August 14, 2020, 05:56:49 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 13th, 2020:
     5,121,073 km2, a drop of -63,718 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 06:09:26 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

glennbuck

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1257 on: August 14, 2020, 02:29:32 PM »
Arctic sea ice area for Aug 13th,  3,105,480 million km^2. NSIDC Daily Area. Change from yesterday of  111,070 km^2.

Last 5 years average area remaining loss from Aug 13th to September Minimum is around 900,000 km^2.


lowests minimum: 2.241 (2012), 2.477 (2016)
(2019) minimum: 2.960
« Last Edit: August 15, 2020, 01:51:14 PM by glennbuck »

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1258 on: August 14, 2020, 04:37:19 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

7-day average:  (5383 − 5812) / 7  =  −61
14-day average: (5383 − 6069) / 14  =  −49

2020-07-30  6.069
2020-07-31  6.036    −33
2020-08-01  5.976    −60
2020-08-02  5.852  −124
2020-08-03  5.790    −62
2020-08-04  5.783      −7
2020-08-05  5.860    +77
2020-08-06  5.812    −48
2020-08-07  5.760    −52
2020-08-08  5.645  −115
2020-08-09  5.549    −96
2020-08-10  5.595    +46
2020-08-11  5.579    −16
2020-08-12  5.484    −95
2020-08-13  5.383  −101

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1259 on: August 15, 2020, 05:54:31 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 14th, 2020:
     5,039,562 km2, a drop of -81,511 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: August 15, 2020, 06:04:35 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1260 on: August 15, 2020, 01:37:22 PM »
As I was saying before I was so rudely interrupted by my daughter's dog.....

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,039,562 KM2 as at 14-Aug-2020

- Extent loss on this day 82k, 24 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,408 k, 555 k, 6.3% more than the 10 year average of 8,853 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  271 k MORE than 2019,
- Extent is  295 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  389 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  145 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 89.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 31 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.94 million km2, 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low, remaining melt needs to be  69.6% or more above average.
For the 2020 minimum to be above the 2019 minimum of 3.96 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  1.6% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.

Like most of us, I have been bemused by the rotten state of the sea ice so clearly shown on the melting season thread while measured sea ice losses have been so low. Just maybe today's above average extent loss is the beginning of sea ice disintegration being reflected in extent loss.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1261 on: August 15, 2020, 01:52:32 PM »
JAXA Extent data... a bit more.

I attach a table comparing the current extent with previous year's minima. There's a long way to go to even get to 2nd lowest.

I also attach the plume showing that at the moment it's a toss-up as to whether 2020 minimum gets to below 4 milliom km2.

I also attach of daily changes from March to end September for this year and the record low years.
2020 was pretty average apart from July.
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glennbuck

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1262 on: August 15, 2020, 02:13:02 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area

Arctic Sea ice area for Aug 14th,  3,078,077 million km^2.  Change from yesterday of 27,403 km^2.       

lowest minimum September area records on the left and ending extent on September minimum on the right. 31 days to September minimum 2020.

(2012) 2.241                           : 3.387
(2016) 2.477                           : 4.165
(2011) 2.940                           : 4.348
(2019) 2.960                           : 4.192
(2017) 3.020                           : 4.665
(2007) 3.050                           : 4.155
(2008) 3.120                           : 4.586
(2015) 3.160                           : 4.438

(2020), 3.078                          : 5.137         
« Last Edit: August 16, 2020, 02:06:22 AM by glennbuck »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1263 on: August 15, 2020, 03:21:37 PM »
Maybe my new computer gifted by a good many super people on the ASIF is operational just when the area and extent losses start to reflect the poorly state of the Arctic Sea Ice.

NSIDC Total Area as at 14-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,235,790 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,235,790    km2      
-559,441    km2   <   2010's average.
-87,728    km2   <   2019
-1,379,167    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -73    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -5    k   loss
Central Seas___   -69    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -11    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -13    k   loss
CAA_________   -7    k   loss
East Siberian__   -12    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -22    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 73 k, 40 k more than the 2010's average loss of 33 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 559 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,379 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 346 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 88 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 165 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 14-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,419,965 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 82 k, 11 k more than the 2010's average loss of 71k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 280 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,281 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 178 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 372 k more than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 482 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1264 on: August 15, 2020, 03:41:48 PM »
NSIDC Central Arctic Sea graphs

I attach area, extent & concentration graphs. One to watch...
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1265 on: August 15, 2020, 03:49:17 PM »
Ditto for the Beaufort Sea

The contrast between area & extent reflects the vast area of low concentration ice and the NSIDC low res 25x25=625km2 pixels.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1266 on: August 15, 2020, 05:47:35 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Today's single day change: −246

7-day average:  (5137 − 5760) / 7  =  −89
14-day average: (5137 − 6036) / 14  =  −64

2020-07-31  6.036
2020-08-01  5.976    −60
2020-08-02  5.852  −124
2020-08-03  5.790    −62
2020-08-04  5.783      −7
2020-08-05  5.860    +77
2020-08-06  5.812    −48
2020-08-07  5.760    −52
2020-08-08  5.645  −115
2020-08-09  5.549    −96
2020-08-10  5.595    +46
2020-08-11  5.579    −16
2020-08-12  5.484    −95
2020-08-13  5.383  −101
2020-08-14  5.137  −246

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1267 on: August 15, 2020, 07:42:39 PM »
NSIDC sea ice area - evaluation "relative area wise" Aug 01-Aug 14, 2020:

The big laggard:
CAB       -   3%
On the slow side:
CAA       - 13%
medium rate ice loss:
Beaufort  - 25%
Kara        - 28%
ESS        - 31%
Grønland - 36%
The front runners:
Laptev     - 55%
Chukchi   - 58%

Hudson, Baffin and Barents almost melted out - no analysis.

PS: Gerontocrat: Welcome back here - we all missed you!
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

psymmo7

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1268 on: August 15, 2020, 09:15:32 PM »
Maybe my new computer gifted by a good many super people on the ASIF is operational just when the area and extent losses start to reflect the poorly state of the Arctic Sea Ice.

NSIDC Total Area as at 14-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,235,790 KM2         

Welcome back. We sorely missed you

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1269 on: August 16, 2020, 05:44:32 AM »
First postings using my shiny new computer thanks to a lot of people on the ASIF.

It is great that you are back, Gerontocrat!

ADS is a little late. I am waiting for their update.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1270 on: August 16, 2020, 07:05:56 AM »
It is 12:05 am on Mexico, so it is time for me to go to bed.
ADS JAXA is still not updated.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1271 on: August 16, 2020, 08:33:03 AM »
Still "No Data" for Aug. 15, 2020 available...
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1272 on: August 16, 2020, 03:22:56 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,173,417 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,173,417    km2      
-586,608    km2   <   2010's average.
-89,736    km2   <   2019
-1,399,836    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -62    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -5    k   loss
Central Seas___   -58    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss
CAA_________   -5    k   loss
East Siberian__   -8    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -22    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 62 k, 27 k more than the 2010's average loss of 35 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 587 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,400 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 349 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 90 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 130 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 15-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,341,251 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 79 k, 10 k more than the 2010's average loss of 69k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 290 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,308 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 180 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 333 k more than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 491 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1273 on: August 16, 2020, 03:59:23 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

7-day average:  (5200 − 5645) / 7  =  −64
14-day average: (5200 − 5976) / 14  =  −55

2020-08-01  5.976
2020-08-02  5.852  −124
2020-08-03  5.790    −62
2020-08-04  5.783      −7
2020-08-05  5.860    +77
2020-08-06  5.812    −48
2020-08-07  5.760    −52
2020-08-08  5.645  −115
2020-08-09  5.549    −96
2020-08-10  5.595    +46
2020-08-11  5.579    −16
2020-08-12  5.484    −95
2020-08-13  5.383  −101
2020-08-14  5.137  −246
2020-08-15  5.200    +63

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1274 on: August 16, 2020, 04:11:30 PM »
With JAXA out of action this day, here is a dose of methadone as a poor substitute. NSIDC Extent analysed as in my JAXA format.

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,341,251 KM2 as at 15-Aug-2020

- Extent loss on this day 79k, 10 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 69k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,543 k; 547 k, (6.1%) more than the 10 year average of 8,996 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  180 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  333 k MORE than 2019,
- Extent is  491 k MORE than 2012,
- Extent is  116 k LESS than 2007.
_____________________________________________
On average 88.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 30 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC-EXTENT-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.12 million km2, 0.73 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.39 million km2.
______________________________
Note the +300k greater than JAXA extent as at 14 Aug, at least partly due to that the NSIDC figure in the tables above is a 5 day trailing average, while JAXA data is a 2 day average. Also ice concentration and/or dispersion make the difference between the two measures variable.
_____________________________________
click each image for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

glennbuck

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1275 on: August 16, 2020, 04:58:57 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area

Arctic Sea ice area for Aug 15th, 3,072,745 million km^2. 

Change from yesterday,  5332 km^2.       


NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8 
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 18
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21

(2020), 3.072  <<  Area, Aug 15th            : 5.200  <<  Extent, Aug 15th       
« Last Edit: August 17, 2020, 09:31:15 AM by glennbuck »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1276 on: August 16, 2020, 05:02:20 PM »
NSIDC Graphs - Beaufort & Central Arctic

The questions are
 - how far can catch-up of Beaufort sea ice loss go?
- will Central Arctic Sea ice loss be a record breaker this year?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1277 on: August 17, 2020, 05:33:22 AM »
The ADS-NIPR-VISHOP (JAXA) page is not opening.  :P  :'(
I hope the problem is solved soon.

It is working now.  :)
« Last Edit: August 17, 2020, 06:46:21 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1278 on: August 17, 2020, 06:50:13 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 15th, 2020:
      4,963,420 km2, a drop of -76,142 km2.

I am waiting for data of August 16th...
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

MrGreeny

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1279 on: August 17, 2020, 07:11:47 AM »
Seems like it had another hiccup, most likely will update the next day..
The ice spins right round baby right round, like a record baby right round round round ~

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1280 on: August 17, 2020, 07:27:22 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 15th, 2020:
      4,963,420 km2, a drop of -76,142 km2.

I am waiting for data of August 16th...

Seems like it had another hiccup, most likely will update the next day..

Yes. Half an hour later of my post, they have not updated the data for August 16.
It's time for me to go to bed.
If someone else can do it.
Thank you!

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1281 on: August 17, 2020, 11:12:41 AM »
JAXA data still only up to the 15th - but you've gotta take what you can get...

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,963,420 KM2 as at 15-Aug-2020

- Extent loss on this day 76k, 14 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 62k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,484 k, 569 k, 6.4% more than the 10 year average of 8,915 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  229 k MORE than 2019,
- Extent is  320 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  414 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  185 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 89.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 30 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.93 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low, remaining melt needs to be  72.4% or more above average.
For the 2020 minimum to be above the 2019 minimum of 3.96 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  3.1% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

glennbuck

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1282 on: August 17, 2020, 02:50:56 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area

Arctic Sea ice area, Aug 16th, 3,028,731 million km^2.

Change from yesterday,  44,014 km^2.   



(2020) Area daily: 3.028                            Extent daily : 5.069       

NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 18
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21

   
« Last Edit: August 18, 2020, 10:29:28 AM by glennbuck »

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1283 on: August 17, 2020, 03:02:37 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

7-day average:  (5069 − 5549) / 7  =  −69
14-day average: (5069 − 5852) / 14  =  −56

2020-08-02  5.852
2020-08-03  5.790    −62
2020-08-04  5.783      −7
2020-08-05  5.860    +77
2020-08-06  5.812    −48
2020-08-07  5.760    −52
2020-08-08  5.645  −115
2020-08-09  5.549    −96
2020-08-10  5.595    +46
2020-08-11  5.579    −16
2020-08-12  5.484    −95
2020-08-13  5.383  −101
2020-08-14  5.137  −246
2020-08-15  5.200    +63
2020-08-16  5.069  −131

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1284 on: August 17, 2020, 03:48:29 PM »
A century break in extent is significant, especially as it's a 5 day trailing average.

NSIDC Total Area as at 16-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,109,044 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,109,044    km2      
-616,692    km2   <   2010's average.
-96,196    km2   <   2019
-1,425,604    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -64    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -6    k   loss
Central Seas___   -59    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -13    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -11    k   loss
CAA_________   -6    k   loss
East Siberian__   -9    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -17    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 64 k, 30 k more than the 2010's average loss of 34 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 617 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,426 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 330 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 96 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 99 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 16-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,239,163 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 102 k, 39 k more than the 2010's average loss of 63k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 329 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,349 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 209 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 271 k more than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 469 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1285 on: August 17, 2020, 05:15:38 PM »
Central Arctic Sea - approximates to North of 80

I attach area and extent graphs plus previous years minima of area and extent. This graph shows it was 2007 wot dunnit - suddenly the Central Arctic sea ice becomes more vulnerable.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1286 on: August 17, 2020, 05:32:46 PM »
NSIDC Graphs
I attach sea ice area & extent graphs for the High Arctic & the Peripheral Seas.
Seems to be a case of
- how much extent losses will catch up to area losses.
- how long the current reversion to above average measured sea ice losses lasts.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1287 on: August 17, 2020, 09:58:24 PM »
I am impressed by the large relative ice area losses in Chukchi Sea in the last four days.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Ktb

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1288 on: August 18, 2020, 04:48:34 AM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation - Mid monthly so no BOE comparison to other years

August 15th extent was 4,963,420 km2. With on average 29 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -136,670 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

Total extent loss thus far in August 2020 was -792,964 km2. And total extent loss so far this season is -9,484,221 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily melt rate of -57,480 km2. (See Attachment 2/3).

Looking only at the month of August thus far, we have averaged -52,864 km2 per day. If the month of August ended today, this average daily drop places August 2020 as 9th out of 14 (2007-2020) in average daily August melt. (See Attachment 4).


We may yet have some more green days on my spreadsheet, if and only if those double centuries people keep talking about materialize.

I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1289 on: August 18, 2020, 05:36:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 16th, 2020:
     4,843,519 km2, a century drop of -119,901 km2.

August 17th, 2020:
     4,781,603 km2, a drop of -61,916 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: August 18, 2020, 05:52:17 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1290 on: August 18, 2020, 06:12:13 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 17th, 2020.

With today's extent, 2020 is already the 11th lowest minimum on record.
Still around one month for the 2020 melting season to end.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2020, 06:21:02 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1291 on: August 18, 2020, 10:44:53 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,781,603 KM2 as at 17-Aug-2020

- Extent loss on this day 62k, 7 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 55k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,666 k, 628 k, 6.9% more than the 10 year average of 9,038 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  147 k MORE than 2019,
- Extent is  319 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  405 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  248 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 90.8% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 28 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.87 million km2, 0.69 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low, remaining melt needs to be  75.8% or more above average.
For the 2020 minimum to be above the 2019 minimum of 3.96 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  10.0% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.

A few days of above average extent losses makes 2020 much more likely to end up as 2nd lowest sea ice extent in the satellite record
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size
« Last Edit: August 18, 2020, 11:15:39 AM by gerontocrat »
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1292 on: August 18, 2020, 11:24:42 AM »
This might be of interesting: it seems like NSIDC has revised the 2019 minima upward. This revision means that the 2019 seasonal minima nominally was the fourth lowest behind 2012, 2007 and 2016.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1293 on: August 18, 2020, 03:12:54 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 17-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,066,666 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,066,666    km2      
-615,889    km2   <   2010's average.
-79,529    km2   <   2019
-1,431,623    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -42    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -7    k   loss
Central Seas___   -36    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -11    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -4    k   loss
East Siberian__   -8    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 42 k, 1 k less than the 2010's average loss of 43 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 616 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,432 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 298 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 80 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 100 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 17-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,134,351 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 105 k, 46 k more than the 2010's average loss of 59k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 375 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,394 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 256 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 216 k more than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 443 k more than 2012

_______________________________
Sea ice area losses in decline, extent losses staying very high.         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1294 on: August 18, 2020, 03:22:05 PM »
This might be of interesting: it seems like NSIDC has revised the 2019 minima upward. This revision means that the 2019 seasonal minima nominally was the fourth lowest behind 2012, 2007 and 2016.
M'lud,

??Are you referring to the graph in ..
Central Arctic Sea - approximates to North of 80

because that is for the Central Arctic Sea only.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1295 on: August 18, 2020, 03:50:14 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

7-day average:  (4957 − 5595) / 7  =  −91
14-day average: (4957 − 5790) / 14  =  −60

2020-08-03  5.790
2020-08-04  5.783      −7
2020-08-05  5.860    +77
2020-08-06  5.812    −48
2020-08-07  5.760    −52
2020-08-08  5.645  −115
2020-08-09  5.549    −96
2020-08-10  5.595    +46
2020-08-11  5.579    −16
2020-08-12  5.484    −95
2020-08-13  5.383  −101
2020-08-14  5.137  −246
2020-08-15  5.200    +63
2020-08-16  5.069  −131
2020-08-17  4.957  −112

glennbuck

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1296 on: August 18, 2020, 04:04:25 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area: August 17

Arctic Sea ice area: 3,005,325 million km^2.

Change from yesterday:  23,405 km^2


(2020) Area daily: 3.005                            Extent daily : 4.957       

NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 18
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21
« Last Edit: August 19, 2020, 12:20:42 AM by glennbuck »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1297 on: August 18, 2020, 09:02:55 PM »
NSIDC Graphs...
The Central Arctic Sea continues to suggest a big ice loss this year, but.....
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1298 on: August 18, 2020, 09:05:59 PM »
NSIDC Graphs...

Meanwhile, the Beaufort sea shows large sea ice area losses continuing, but extent losses continue to lag well behind.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1299 on: August 18, 2020, 09:13:46 PM »
NSIDC Graphs...

Looks like the Chukchi has realised resistence is futile & given up.

The CAA continues to confuse, area losses continue steadily while extent losses dither.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)