JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 4,680,152 KM2 as at 18-Aug-2020
- Extent loss on this day 101k, 48 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,767 k, 676 k, 7.4% more than the 10 year average of 9,092 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is 0 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is 336 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is 374 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is 315 k LESS than 2007
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On average 91.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 27 days to minimum
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.82 million km2, 0.64 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
For a record low, remaining melt needs to be 74.9% or more above average.
For the 2020 minimum to be above the 2019 minimum of 3.96 million km2, remaining melt needs to be 16.2% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.
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What a difference 5 days of above average sea ice extent losses, including 2 century breaks, makes. Suddenly a 2nd lowest minimum by a decent margin looks very possible.
How long will this end-of-season gallop last?
How vulnerable is all that low concentration ice?
Will the ice edge breach the 85 North barrier?
How much oomph is left in the ocean heat collected this year?
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