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MrGreeny

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1450 on: September 04, 2020, 05:33:15 AM »
Seems like https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/ is offline for maintenance.
The ice spins right round baby right round, like a record baby right round round round ~

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1451 on: September 04, 2020, 05:37:45 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 3rd, 2020:

Our service will be stopped from Sep. 4th 12:00 JST  to 7th 12:00 JST by planned electrical  outage for legal inspection.
We sincerely apologize for inconveniencing you for a long time.

https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR/status/1300656613674463232?s=20
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

pauldry600

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1452 on: September 04, 2020, 08:14:46 AM »
Why do it now on such crucial dates?
Wouldnt November or something be better?

binntho

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1453 on: September 04, 2020, 08:22:18 AM »
This is how they can perform feats like filling in a sinkhole and open up for traffic again in 3 hours. By closing everything down for three days for an electricity audit ...
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

ArcticMelt2

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1454 on: September 04, 2020, 08:52:28 AM »
https://data.meereisportal.de/maps/latest/extent_long_n_en.png

Bremen University data

31.08 3.71
01.09 3.60
02.09 3.56
03.09 3.50

MrGreeny

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1455 on: September 04, 2020, 12:42:46 PM »
3 day maintenance, ouch.
The ice spins right round baby right round, like a record baby right round round round ~

glennbuck

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1456 on: September 04, 2020, 02:16:23 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area: September 3rd

Arctic Sea ice area: 2,737,994 million km^2.

Change from yesterday: Area loss of 24,907 km^2

(2020) NSIDC: Area daily: 2.737               NSIDC: Extent daily: 3.939


NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 17
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21
« Last Edit: September 04, 2020, 04:13:07 PM by glennbuck »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1457 on: September 04, 2020, 02:48:00 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 03-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,738,269 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,738,269    km2      
-416,275    km2   <   2010's average.
-238,704    km2   <   2019
-1,369,167    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    6    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -9    k   loss
Central Seas___    15    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    28    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 6 k, 27 k less than the 2010's average loss of 21 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 416 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,369 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 142 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 239 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 309 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 03-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,084,214 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 82 k, 48 k more than the 2010's average loss of 34k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 626 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,667 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 232 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 383 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 462 k more than 2012


End-of-season wobbles still continuing - area up, extent down a lot.
NSIDC daily extent down by 112k, after a 47k increase and a 196k decrease in the days before.
Daily extent now below 4 million km2 at 3.939 million km2.
Methinks the sensors and the algorithms are finding it difficult.

A closer look follows after this post.
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1458 on: September 04, 2020, 03:45:02 PM »
With JAXA out of commission, maybe some more NSIDC stuff will dry some tears.

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,084,214 KM2 as at 03-Sep-2020

- Extent loss on this day 82k, 48 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 34k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 10,800 k; 882 k, (8.9%) more than the 10 year average of 9,918 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  232 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  383 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  462 k MORE than 2012,
- Extent is  416 k LESS than 2007.
_____________________________________________
On average 97.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 11 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC-EXTENT-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.83 million km2, 0.44 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.39 million km2.
______________________________
Daily sea ice extent is already below 4 million km2 + a 112k dasily extent loss, so a few more above average extent losses may be on the cards.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1459 on: September 04, 2020, 04:00:59 PM »
NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average  EXTENT - a bit more...

The Plume shows that though the range of outcomes to the minimum is quite samll, there is a wide devergence of eaxtent gains in the second half of September. This widens the projections of the September monthly average made from looking at previous years.

The average projection is for a September average of 4.013 million km2, some 368K (or 4 years)  below the value calculated from the linear trend.

I also attach the minima table, which compares the current 5 day trailing average extent with the minima of previous years. 2020 is guaranteed a 2nd place.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1460 on: September 04, 2020, 04:03:31 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Today's 1-day change was −112

7-day average:  (3939 − 4363) / 7  =  −61
14-day average: (3939 − 4704) / 14  =  −55

2020-08-20  4.704
2020-08-21  4.630    −74
2020-08-22  4.577    −53
2020-08-23  4.552    −25
2020-08-24  4.492    −60
2020-08-25  4.429    −63
2020-08-26  4.427      −2
2020-08-27  4.363    −64
2020-08-28  4.448    +85
2020-08-29  4.365    −83
2020-08-30  4.260  −105
2020-08-31  4.200    −60
2020-09-01  4.004  −196
2020-09-02  4.051    +47
2020-09-03  3.939  −112

UCMiami

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1461 on: September 04, 2020, 04:44:48 PM »
So on this day NSIDC 5 day trailing average has moved into second place for minimum passing 2016 - now in second place in both JAXA and NSIDC calculations of extent.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1462 on: September 04, 2020, 08:43:43 PM »
How unusual are CB losses in September for NSIDC?

KenB

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1463 on: September 04, 2020, 10:08:08 PM »
How unusual are CB losses in September for NSIDC?

Since 1979:

Once in 88, 96, 08, 10, 11
Twice in 84, 91, 99, 19

And now once twice (so far) in 20.

[Corrected, since there actually have been two times already, counting the 196 drop on the 1st]
« Last Edit: September 04, 2020, 10:28:00 PM by KenB »
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

S.Pansa

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1464 on: September 05, 2020, 08:00:08 AM »
https://data.meereisportal.de/maps/latest/extent_long_n_en.png

Bremen University data

31.08 3.71
01.09 3.60
02.09 3.56
03.09 3.50
As JAXA has taken a brake ... another century drop reported by University Bremen.

In their data set it is a neck and neck race between 2012 and 2020.
31.08 3.71
01.09 3.60
02.09 3.56
03.09 3.50
04.09 3.39

Darvince

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1465 on: September 05, 2020, 08:05:17 AM »
Was Bremen using the AMSR-2 for their extent calculations in 2012?

Jim Hunt

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1466 on: September 05, 2020, 10:40:49 AM »
Was Bremen using the AMSR-2 for their extent calculations in 2012?

Perhaps not?

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/09/facts-about-the-arctic-in-september-2020/#Sep-04

Data up to September 3rd only.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1467 on: September 05, 2020, 02:25:26 PM »
NSIDC per 9/4: 4,003 Men km2. Let's see if we can go below 4 Mn by tomorrow....

glennbuck

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1468 on: September 05, 2020, 02:26:11 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area: September 4th

Arctic Sea ice area: 2,728,205 million km^2.

Change from yesterday: Area loss of 9789 km^2

(2020) NSIDC: Area daily: 2.728               NSIDC: Extent daily: 3.822


NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 17
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21
« Last Edit: September 05, 2020, 08:53:27 PM by glennbuck »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1469 on: September 05, 2020, 02:26:52 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 04-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,751,720 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,751,720    km2      
-381,978    km2   <   2010's average.
-208,916    km2   <   2019
-1,337,575    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    13    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas___    22    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    32    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 13 k, 34 k different from than the 2010's average loss of 21 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 382 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,338 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 201 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 209 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 354 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 04-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,000,003 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 84 k, 47 k more than the 2010's average loss of 37k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 673 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,721 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 277 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 415 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 422 k more than 2012

_________________________________________________
And so it goes on, end-of-season wobbles - area up, extent down a lot.
NSIDC daily extent down by 117k, after a 112k decrtease, a 47k increase and a 196k decrease in the days before.
Extent (5-day)  now above 4 million km2 by a mere 3 km2.

Sit back and enjoy the ride.

         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1470 on: September 05, 2020, 02:41:54 PM »
NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,000,003 KM2 as at 04-Sep-2020

- Extent loss on this day 84k, 47 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 37k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 10,884 k; 929 k, (9.3%) more than the 10 year average of 9,955 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  468 k LESS than 2007.
- Extent is  422 k MORE than 2012,
- Extent is  277 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  415 k LESS than 2019,
_____________________________________________
On average 97.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 10 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC-EXTENT-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.78 million km2, 0.39 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.39 million km2.
______________________________
click each image for full size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1471 on: September 05, 2020, 04:14:21 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Today's 1-day change was −117

7-day average:  (3822 − 4448) / 7  =  −89
14-day average: (3822 − 4630) / 14  =  −58

2020-08-21  4.630
2020-08-22  4.577    −53
2020-08-23  4.552    −25
2020-08-24  4.492    −60
2020-08-25  4.429    −63
2020-08-26  4.427      −2
2020-08-27  4.363    −64
2020-08-28  4.448    +85
2020-08-29  4.365    −83
2020-08-30  4.260  −105
2020-08-31  4.200    −60
2020-09-01  4.004  −196
2020-09-02  4.051    +47
2020-09-03  3.939  −112
2020-09-04  3.822  −117

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1472 on: September 05, 2020, 04:29:44 PM »
NSIDC Data - Area and extent graphs

The contrast between area vs extent, and the High Arctic vs the Peripheral Seas, is interesting.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1473 on: September 05, 2020, 04:45:06 PM »
NSIDC Graphs- Central Arctic Sea.

Extent still declines sharply, Area increases sharply.
Concentration increases verically.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1474 on: September 05, 2020, 04:55:49 PM »
NSIDC Area & Extent graphs

Beaufort Sea ice loss showing signs of running out of steam.

Greenland Sea is losing ice - but nowhere near a record low (yet).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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DavidR

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1475 on: September 06, 2020, 03:54:02 AM »
NSIDC Area & Extent graphs

Beaufort Sea ice loss showing signs of running out of steam.

Greenland Sea is losing ice - but nowhere near a record low (yet).
The difference between 2020 and 2012 in the Beaufort extent exceeds 300K, The difference between 2020 and 2012 extent across the entire Arctic is now just 277K so the Beaufort is the primary area preventing 2020 breaching 2012's record low extent. With sun angles in the Beaufort much higher than in the CAB there is still a possibility of the Beaufort losing close to the amount required for 2020 to catch 2012. If there is to be a late dive in extent the Beaufort would seem to  be the place it would most likely occur.

The biggest loss in extent from this date was 537K in 1991 which  would be sufficient to tale 2020 below 2012.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

glennbuck

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1476 on: September 06, 2020, 02:23:03 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area: September 5th

Arctic Sea ice area: 2,713,984 million km^2.

Change from yesterday: Area loss of 14,221 km^2

(2020) NSIDC: Area daily: 2.713               NSIDC: Extent daily: 3.822


NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 17
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21
« Last Edit: September 06, 2020, 02:53:40 PM by glennbuck »

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1477 on: September 06, 2020, 02:29:39 PM »
NSIDC extent for 5/9: 3,928 Mn km2. (5-day average).

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1478 on: September 06, 2020, 03:20:23 PM »
NSIDC DAILY extent at 3.822 million km2 is unchanged from the day before.

The last 3 (or was it 4?) times it happened the data was duff, and NSIDC put a revised set of spreadsheets out later in the day or the following day.

How likely is it chance? It has happened zero times in the last 5 years (after data was corrected), though it has happened 8 times in the 5 years before that.

There is a good chance the data is duff - and being Labour Weekend ?? So I am not posting today, unless revised data comes out later.

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OffTheGrid

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1479 on: September 06, 2020, 11:28:31 PM »
Mosaic say down from extent 3.5 yesterday to 3.4 today.
Where their data from?
Are NSIC and Jaxa just pr products for the masses now?

S.Pansa

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1480 on: September 07, 2020, 06:41:07 AM »
My guess would be they use the University Bremen data set: https://data.meereisportal.de/maps/latest/extent_long_n_en.png

While we are talking about it. Have we reached the bottom?

31.08 3.71
01.09 3.60
02.09 3.56
03.09 3.50
04.09 3.39
05.09 3.39
06.09 3.39

MrGreeny

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1481 on: September 07, 2020, 09:15:05 AM »
"Arctic Data archive System (ADS) will be unavailable due to the planned system maintenance.
We are sorry for the inconvenience this may cause.

<Maintenance window>
7 Sep. 2020 at 12:00 JST  -  10 Sep. at 12:00 JST"

Source: https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR/status/1302860263046049795

Extra 3 day maintenance.
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glennbuck

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1482 on: September 07, 2020, 02:23:17 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area: September 6th

Arctic Sea ice area: 2,672,677 million km^2.

Change from yesterday: Area loss of 41,307 km^2

(2020) NSIDC: Area daily: 2.672               NSIDC: Extent daily:


NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 17
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1483 on: September 07, 2020, 02:34:29 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 06-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,730,628 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,730,628    km2      
-372,291    km2   <   2010's average.
-238,563    km2   <   2019
-1,337,630    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -13    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -3    k   loss
Central Seas___   -10    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____    6    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -9    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 13 k, 1 k less than the 2010's average loss of 14 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 372 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,338 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 242 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 239 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 375 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Extent Analysis to follow
___________________________________________
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1484 on: September 07, 2020, 03:01:03 PM »
I still think that maybe NSIDC will do some post-processing on the data when they all get back after the Labour Weekend. I may be  totally wrong - here is the analysis anyway.

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,889,395 KM2 as at 06-Sep-2020

- Extent loss on this day 38k, 15 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 10,995 k; 986 k, (9.9%) more than the 10 year average of 10,008 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  511 k LESS than 2007.
- Extent is  364 k MORE than 2012,
- Extent is  338 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  479 k LESS than 2019,
_____________________________________________
On average 98.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 8 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC-EXTENT-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.72 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.39 million km2.

This late in the season, with so little remaining melt, any projection is really just a shot in the dark.
______________________________
click each image for full size
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1485 on: September 07, 2020, 03:31:40 PM »
NSIDC Extent & Area Graphs

We have a record breaker - Central Arctic Sea ice extent at 6 September is already the lowest minimum in the satellite record, lower than the 2012 minimum by 938 km2.

The Beaufort ice loss seems to be running out of steam.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2020, 12:40:16 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1486 on: September 07, 2020, 03:33:47 PM »
NSIDC Extent & Area Graphs - a few more

The East Siberian Sea - ice loss recommenced.

The Greenland Sea - ice loss continuing.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1487 on: September 07, 2020, 07:59:43 PM »
It's 'old news' now, but Jim Petit's gaph/table of NSIDC extent was finally updated.  This is only the 2nd year with a 'permanent' orange band (under 4M km2) [Click on URL for current image.]
Image URL sometimes isn't as current as the actual image, for some reason: image at http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/sie_nsidc_max_min_plus_step_days.png
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Frivolousz21

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1488 on: September 08, 2020, 07:07:27 AM »
So now jaxa is down for 3 more days??

How can they genuinely schedule this stuff during the minimum??

Its ridiculous..  do this in December
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wallen

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1489 on: September 08, 2020, 10:55:26 AM »
So now jaxa is down for 3 more days??

How can they genuinely schedule this stuff during the minimum??

Its ridiculous..  do this in December

From their twitter page.

Our service will be stopped from Sep. 4th 12:00 JST  to 7th 12:00 JST by planned electrical  outage for legal inspection.
We sincerely apologize for inconveniencing you for a long time.
2:47 PM · Sep 1, 2020·Twitter Web App

A legal inspection?   The outage may have been beyond their control

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1490 on: September 08, 2020, 12:38:59 PM »
So now jaxa is down for 3 more days??

How can they genuinely schedule this stuff during the minimum??

Its ridiculous..  do this in December

From their twitter page.

Our service will be stopped from Sep. 4th 12:00 JST  to 7th 12:00 JST by planned electrical  outage for legal inspection.
We sincerely apologize for inconveniencing you for a long time.
2:47 PM · Sep 1, 2020·Twitter Web App

A legal inspection?   The outage may have been beyond their control
That the outage has been extended to the 10th suggests that maybe there is a problem.
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scottie

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1491 on: September 08, 2020, 01:05:07 PM »
Their lastest twitter page says the system is now down for "planned system maintenance" which does seem ridiculous at this time ???

Arctic Data archive System (ADS) will be unavailable due to the planned system maintenance.
We are sorry for the inconvenience this may cause.
<Maintenance window>
7 Sep. 2020 at 12:00JST  -  10 Sep. at 12:00 JST

grixm

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1492 on: September 08, 2020, 01:09:54 PM »
Bremen extent data.

01.09 3.60
02.09 3.56
03.09 3.50
04.09 3.39
05.09 3.39
06.09 3.39
07.09 3.41

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1493 on: September 08, 2020, 02:14:47 PM »
The melting season is not over - yet.

NSIDC Total Area as at 07-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,707,776 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,707,776    km2      
-382,282    km2   <   2010's average.
-276,759    km2   <   2019
-1,352,275    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -23    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -4    k   loss
Central Seas___   -19    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -11    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 23 k, 10 k more than the 2010's average loss of 13 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 382 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,352 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 249 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 277 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 366 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 07-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,834,377 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 55 k, 30 k more than the 2010's average loss of 25k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 760 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,824 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 367 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 529 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 317 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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oren

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1494 on: September 08, 2020, 02:55:08 PM »
Thanks for the updates Gero.
Candidate min 5-day NSIDC area just moved from Aug 30th to Sep 7th. (I was watching to see whether an Aug min would be possible by some fluke).
1-day NSIDC area should also hit a new min. It was 2.656 Mkm2 on Aug 30th and 2.672 on Sep 6th.

glennbuck

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1495 on: September 08, 2020, 04:41:21 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area: September 7th

Arctic Sea ice area: 2,650,235 million km^2, low for the year to date.

Previous low was 30th August, 2,656,970 million km^2.

Change from yesterday: Area loss of 22,442 km^2

(2020) NSIDC: Area daily: 2.650               NSIDC: Extent daily: 3.777


NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 17
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21
« Last Edit: September 08, 2020, 09:40:36 PM by glennbuck »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1496 on: September 08, 2020, 05:07:13 PM »
NSIDC Data Problem?
Time to rain on the parade....

I wrote on Saturday to NSIDC about the unusual occurence of zero change in daily sea ice extent on 5th September (3.822 4th, 3.822 5th Sept).

Got an e-mail today at 8.20 a.m. Colorado time.

Nic, Sep 8, 2020, 8:20 MDT:
Hi Matt,

I'm sorry to say there is an issue with the database that posts data to the site, so the data has not updated. This is a problem on our end, and it is currently being fixed. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Best,
Nic


I don't know whether the current data is OK. I will see if there is an update later in the day.

Whoops - looks like NSIDC.org have gone offline, or is it just me
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wdmn

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1497 on: September 08, 2020, 05:21:10 PM »
Back up now...

Sept. 7th: 3.834

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1498 on: September 08, 2020, 06:14:05 PM »
Daily number was 3,777 Mn km2. A drop from 3,812 Mn km2. The 5-day average will likely continue to drop by tomorrow.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1499 on: September 08, 2020, 06:43:55 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Today's 1-day change was −34

7-day average:  (3777 − 4200) / 7  =  −60
14-day average: (3777 − 4492) / 14  =  −51

2020-08-24  4.492
2020-08-25  4.429    −63
2020-08-26  4.427      −2
2020-08-27  4.363    −64
2020-08-28  4.448    +85
2020-08-29  4.365    −83
2020-08-30  4.260  −105
2020-08-31  4.200    −60
2020-09-01  4.004  −196
2020-09-02  4.051    +47
2020-09-03  3.939  −112
2020-09-04  3.822  −117
2020-09-05  3.822         0
2020-09-06  3.811    −11
2020-09-07  3.777    −34