2020 Sea ice area and extent data

[Juan C. García]

Thank you, Gerontocrat and Juan, ...

And if you do put out a single, I will buy it!

You are welcome, Pagophilus. 
And I also thank many people who are working hard on this and other threads. 

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 13^th, 2020:
     3,554,798 km², a drop of -9,058 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,554,798 KM2 as at 13-Sep-2020

- Extent loss on this day 9k, 7 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 2k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 10,893 k, 1,017 k, 10.3% more than the 10 year average of 9,876 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  499 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  685 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  354 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  581 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 99.8% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 1 day to minimum

Projections.

The Plume tells us that just maybe there could be a further extent loss to below 3.5 million km2.

[gerontocrat]

As NSIDC extent is still reducing (though NSIDC data updates still looking odd), here is the extent analysis....

NSIDC put a new update out at lunchtime Colorado time - data changes not huge but enough to kill this post.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC - Central Arctic Sea

Extent still declines, now 53k less than the 2012 record low minimum.
Area increases.

[gerontocrat]

Repalcment posting since NSIDC post a revised update. I knew I should have waited.... ho hum.

NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 13-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,746,944 KM2         

Total EXTENT           3,746,944    km2       -771,341    km2   <   2010's average. -579,951    km2   <   2019 -1,815,964    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change   -12    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -4    k   loss Central Seas___   -8    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -5    k   loss St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    1    k   gain Barents ______   -0    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -1    k   loss Beaufort_____    2    k   gain CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__   -5    k   loss Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss Laptev_______    -    k   loss Kara_________    4    k   gain

         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 12 k, 11 k more than the 2010's average loss of 1k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 771 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,816 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 470 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 580 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 312 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click on an image to see it full-size         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 14^th, 2020:
     3,582,016 km², an increase of 27,218 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[glennbuck]

NSIDC Daily Area: September 13th

Arctic Sea ice area: 2,681,140 million km^2


NSIDC Daily Area, September 7th, 2,650,235 million km^2, is the current low for the year.

(2020) NSIDC: Area daily: 2.681               NSIDC: Extent daily: 3.740


NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 17
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,582,016 KM2 as at 14-Sep-2020

- Extent gain on this day 27k, 23 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of -4k,
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  444 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  687 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  385 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  516 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Melting Season. Is that it? is that all you've got? Maybe/probably
_____________________________________________

[Tom_Mazanec]

Looking at the curve for 2012 I suspect we will soon be #1 in extant again.

[DrTskoul]

A clean second... who would have thunk.  Climatology fast approaches the freak 2012 event. A few more years before it's a norm...

[glennbuck]

NSIDC Daily Area: September 14th

Arctic Sea ice daily area: 2,617,631 million km^2, low for the season set today, passing previous low of 2,650,235 million km^2 on September 7th.

Change from yesterday: Area loss of 63,509 km^2


(2020) NSIDC: Area daily: 2.617               NSIDC: Extent daily:


NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 17
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21

[gerontocrat]

What a switch round - area losses in the Central Arctic Sea make it possible that the minimum is not yet reached (see Glennbuck's post above).

NSIDC Total Area as at 14-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,695,225 KM2         

Total Area           2,695,225    km2       -416,027    km2   <   2010's average. -286,915    km2   <   2019 -1,385,911    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change   -23    k   loss Peripheral Seas    1    k   gain Central Seas___   -23    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    1    k   gain Barents ______    0    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -0    k   loss Beaufort_____    3    k   gain CAA_________    4    k   gain East Siberian__   -7    k   loss Central Arctic_   -24    k   loss Laptev_______    0    k   gain Kara_________    1    k   gain

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 23 k, 48 k less than the 2010's average gain of 25 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 416 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,386 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 66 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 287 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 444 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 14-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,740,476 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 6 k, 4 k more than the 2010's average loss of 2k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 776 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,810 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 520 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 554 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 322 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click on an image to see it full-size         

[gerontocrat]

Odd things going on on the Central Arctic Sea....

[VaughnAn]

As a long time lurker and persistent reader of this forum, I think it appropriate at this time to especially thank Oren, Juan C. Garcia, Frivolousz21, Jim Hunt, Born From The Void, Aluminum, A-Team, ArcticMelt2, Gerontocrat, and other participants on the ASIF for their continued outstanding analyses of the Arctic environment.  I also want to thank Neven for making this all possible as well. For people like me publishing these analyses in the concise and straightforward manner is a godsend for us.  The lack of garbage and political interference is indeed refreshing. So, "Thank You" to everyone.....

VaughnAn

[Shared Humanity]

As a long time lurker and persistent reader of this forum, I think it appropriate at this time to especially thank Oren, Juan C. Garcia, Frivolousz21, Jim Hunt, Born From The Void, Aluminum, A-Team, ArcticMelt2, Gerontocrat, and other participants on the ASIF for their continued outstanding analyses of the Arctic environment.  I also want to thank Neven for making this all possible as well. For people like me publishing these analyses in the concise and straightforward manner is a godsend for us.  The lack of garbage and political interference is indeed refreshing. So, "Thank You" to everyone.....

VaughnAn

Agreed.

[Juan C. García]

As a long time lurker and persistent reader of this forum, I think it appropriate at this time to especially thank Oren, Juan C. Garcia, Frivolousz21, Jim Hunt, Born From The Void, Aluminum, A-Team, ArcticMelt2, Gerontocrat, and other participants on the ASIF for their continued outstanding analyses of the Arctic environment.  I also want to thank Neven for making this all possible as well. For people like me publishing these analyses in the concise and straightforward manner is a godsend for us.  The lack of garbage and political interference is indeed refreshing. So, "Thank You" to everyone.....

VaughnAn

Agreed.

You are welcome! and 1+ thanks to everyone else!!! 

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 15^th, 2020:
     3,605,357 km², an increase of 23,341 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,605,357 KM2 as at 15-Sep-2020

- Extent gain on this day 23k, 15 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 8k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 10,842 k, 978 k, 9.9% more than the 10 year average of 9,864 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  401 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  648 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  427 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  463 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Two substantial extent gains. But the rule of three - two observations is just 2 points on a graph, 3 might be the beginning of a trend.
So if there is an extent increase tomorrow, I will start the freezing season analyses.
______________________________

N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size

[glennbuck]

NSIDC Daily Area: September 15th

Arctic Sea ice area: 2,583,432 million km^2, low for the season set today, passing previous low of 2,617,631 million km^2 on September 14th.

Change from yesterday: Area loss of 34,199 km^2


(2020) NSIDC: Area daily: 2.583               NSIDC: Extent daily: 3.743


NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 17
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21

[gerontocrat]

While JAXA data says the melting season has ended NSIDC data says not yet...

NSIDC Total Area as at 15-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,670,164 KM2         

Total Area           2,670,164    km2       -469,334    km2   <   2010's average. -300,762    km2   <   2019 -1,418,712    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change   -25    k   loss Peripheral Seas    3    k   gain Central Seas___   -28    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss Bering _______    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    3    k   gain Barents ______    0    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    0    k   gain Beaufort_____    3    k   gain CAA_________    5    k   gain East Siberian__   -5    k   loss Central Arctic_   -33    k   loss Laptev_______    0    k   gain Kara_________    2    k   gain

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 25 k, 53 k less than the 2010's average gain of 28 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 469 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,419 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 123 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 301 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 421 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 15-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,736,632 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 4 k, 4 k more than the 2010's average loss of 0k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 780 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,808 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 568 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 526 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 333 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click on an image to see it full-size         

[gerontocrat]

Oddness in the Central Arctic Sea continues...

Just two out of 14 seas are keeping this melting season open, the Central Arctic Sea and the East Siberian Sea (ESS).

In the last two days Central Arctic Sea area has declined by just over 50k, while Central Arctic Sea extent has declined by just over 16k and is now a new record low minimum at 71k less than the 2012 minimum. And this melt has mainly happened at or farther north than 85 North.

So the melting season stays open due to extent and area loss continuing at the northernmost ice edge. That is odd.


Meanwhile, in the last two days the ESS has lost over 10k area and 15k extent.

By now, average area gain approaches 30k, while extent loss average is at 1 or 2k. How long will this oddness continue?

[Alphabet Hotel]

NSIDC daily extent


2020-09-01  4.004
2020-09-02  4.051    +47
2020-09-03  3.939  −112
2020-09-04  3.822  −117
2020-09-05  3.822        0
2020-09-06  3.811    −11
2020-09-07  3.777    −34
2020-09-08  3.770      −7
2020-09-09  3.777      +7
2020-09-10  3.763    −14
2020-09-11  3.740    −23
2020-09-12  3.745      +5
2020-09-13  3.709    −36
2020-09-14  3.745    +36
2020-09-15  3.743      −2

[RoxTheGeologist]

Oddness in the Central Arctic Sea continues...

Just two out of 14 seas are keeping this melting season open, the Central Arctic Sea and the East Siberian Sea (ESS).
....

and, usually, area declines precede extent declines.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 16^th, 2020:
     3,630,218 km², an increase of 24,861 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

3 days of significant extent increases says to me - freezing season has commenced, even if NSIDC 5 day average data is still dithering around the minimum. So here is the first freezing season 2020-21 analysis.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,630,218 KM2 as at 16-Sep-2020

- Extent gain on this day 25k, 34 k more than the average LOSS on this day (of the last 10 years) of 9k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 75 k, 7 k, 8.0% more than the 10 year average of 82 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  361 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  603 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  453 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  440 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 0.8% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 176 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Whoops:-
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 13.48 million km2, 0.40 million km2 below the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

Whoops again...
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 13.48 million km2, 0.40 million km2 below the March 2017 minimum maximum of 13.88 million km2.

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.48 million km2, 0.40 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

I really should rescue my brain from the car park before doing this stuff.

_____________________________________________
Caveat:- Last year it looked really possible that the low minimum and slow refreeze would produce a low maximum. It did not work out like that.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size

[charles_oil]

Thanks again for all the hard work - esp .Juan amd Gero for the regular updates


But - have I missed something?


Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of
13.48 million km2, 0.40 million km2 below the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

[be cause]

I'm confussed ... b.c.

  but no more .. 

[gerontocrat]

Whoops - corrected.

[glennbuck]

NSIDC Daily Area: September 16th

Arctic Sea ice area: 2,583,432 million km^2, no change from yesterday, it looks like this will be the low for the year, finishing third lowest NSIDC daily area behind 2012 and 2016.


(2020) NSIDC: Area daily: 2.583               NSIDC: Extent daily:


NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 17
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21

[gerontocrat]

& NSIDC Area refuses to admit the melting season is over ....

NSIDC Total Area as at 16-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,641,426 KM2         

Total Area           2,641,426    km2       -526,887    km2   <   2010's average. -343,161    km2   <   2019 -1,455,177    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change   -29    k   loss Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain Central Seas___   -33    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss Bering _______    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    4    k   gain Barents ______   -0    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    0    k   gain Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________    6    k   gain East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_   -36    k   loss Laptev_______   -0    k   loss Kara_________   -0    k   loss

         
Sea ice area LOSS on this day 29 k, 58 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 29 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 527 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,455 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 170 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 343 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 391 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 16-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,743,424 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT GAIN on this day 7 k, 9 k more than the 2010's average loss of 2k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 771 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,797 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 592 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 496 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 355 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click on an image to see it full-size         

[gerontocrat]

Oddness in the Central Arctic Sea continues for yet another day...

Just two out of 14 seas continue to keep this melting season open, the Central Arctic Sea and the East Siberian Sea (ESS).

In the last three days Central Arctic Sea area has declined by just over 90k. Central Arctic Sea extent has declined by just over 20k and is now a new record low minimum at 78k less than the 2012 minimum. And this melt has mainly happened at or farther north than 85 North.

So the melting season stays open due to area loss continuing at the northernmost ice edge. That is odd.


Meanwhile, in the last two days the ESS has lost over 15k area and 21k extent.

This oddness now qualifies as very odd?

[Shared Humanity]

Thanks again for all the hard work - esp .Juan amd Gero for the regular updates

I agree. the data from Juan and gerontocrat make this thread crucial and I visit it daily.

[UCMiami]

Gerontocrat - I wonder if you shouldn't be using the 2016 minimum for area comparison instead of the 2016 daily value now that we have passed 2016s minimum for the year?
'- 2020 Area is 170 xxx k less more than 2016 minimum'

Since this is generally about melt season to minimum that would be more in keeping with the general tenor.

One other question on your area and extent graphs - these are based on the standard definition of the central arctic seas and not on Wipneus' definitions? I believe he has a larger CAB and smaller surrounding seas

Thanks to you and Juan and everyone else who has provided such fabulous daily record keeping for this season.

[Alphabet Hotel]

NSIDC daily extent

Looks like it's done.

2020-09-02  4.051
2020-09-03  3.939  −112
2020-09-04  3.822  −117
2020-09-05  3.822        0
2020-09-06  3.811    −11
2020-09-07  3.777    −34
2020-09-08  3.770      −7
2020-09-09  3.777      +7
2020-09-10  3.763    −14
2020-09-11  3.740    −23
2020-09-12  3.745      +5
2020-09-13  3.709    −36
2020-09-14  3.745    +36
2020-09-15  3.743      −2
2020-09-16  3.774    +33

[gerontocrat]

Gerontocrat - I wonder if you shouldn't be using the 2016 minimum for area comparison instead of the 2016 daily value now that we have passed 2016s minimum for the year?
'- 2020 Area is 170 xxx k less more than 2016 minimum'

Since this is generally about melt season to minimum that would be more in keeping with the general tenor.

One other question on your area and extent graphs - these are based on the standard definition of the central arctic seas and not on Wipneus' definitions? I believe he has a larger CAB and smaller surrounding seas

The daily posts look at the current day and compare with the same date in other years.

But as we are perhaps, or perhaps not, at the minimum area for 2020, I attach the comparison of today's current 2020 minimum with the minima pf previous years,, and yes..
- the minimum in 2016 is 192k less than the current 2020 minimum,
- the minimum in 2012 is 393k less than the current 2020 minimum.
But I am waiting until the area is at the minum for sure before posting any thoughts on the season end.

I also attach the comparison between the arctic basin seas' areas as in NSIDC, and as developed by the late lamented Cryosphere Today and used by Wipneus in all his files including the PIOMAS volume analyses. The seas affected are Central Arctic (CAB vs CAS), Kara, Laptev, ESS, Chukchi, Beaufort (& CAA marginally).
____________________________________
click image for full size

[Stephan]

The second lowest minimum extent of Arctic Sea Ice was one of the topics in the radio news (Deutschlandfunk - a nationwide public radio programme in Germany). They also explained the higher than average temperatures in the Arctic were one of the reasons for this event.

[Glen Koehler]

Whoops - corrected.

       Huh?  I'm still confused (not unusual in my case. Try it, you get used to it after a while).
     
       Here is the supposedly corrected statement at
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg286733.html#msg286733
 
"Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 13.48 million km2, 0.40 million km2 below the March 2017 minimum maximum of 13.88 million km2."

       I think the correct correction would be:
      "Average remaining melt freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 March 2021 of 13.48 million km2, 0.40 million km2 below the March 2017 minimum maximum of 13.88 million km2."

      Is this right, or is there need to correct my correction of the correction?

      We nitpick because we care.  You only hurt the ones you love.  Ditto thanks to all the data providers for what has been a wild ride of a melting season.  I don't think Friv has even been so thrilled as he was this July.  At least somebody's happy!  And thanks to Oren we got through it with minimal umbrage and personal insults about our pet theories!

      I think there is truth in be cause's tag line:
"2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021"

      And I would add "+ 1 = 2022".  Seriously, the bus could be leaving the station.  The trend has been for changes to occur sooner not later than expected.  When's the last time you saw a climate change story about how things are evolving slower or less drastically than anticipated?   For those of you in the U.S., and everybody everywhere for your own elections, please vote and tell everybody you know to vote for climate rationality.  This infection has to be healed or it will kill us. (Sorry, I couldn't resist... I haven't had a good climate scream for awhile.) 

      Getting back to ASIF business, the path ahead for the coming freeze season, and especially the 2021 melt season, look to be "interesting" (in the Chinese curse sense of "May you live in interesting times", which we certainly are).   

[gerontocrat]

I think my brain has been on Planet Zog today.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 17^th, 2020:
     3,734,834 km², a 100K+ increase of 104,616 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. The melting season is officially over! 

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,734,834 KM2 as at 17-Sep-2020

- Extent gain on this day 105k, 103 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 2k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 180 k, 98 k, 119.6% more than the 10 year average of 82 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  229 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  559 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  521 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  331 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 0.8% of extent gains from minimum to maximum done, and 175 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.58 million km2, 0.30 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_____________________________________________
A century break - Did anyone see that one coming? I certainly did not. I wonder what NSIDC will come up with today.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size

[gerontocrat]

Waiting to see if NSIDc put out a revised update - data looks odd but maybe simply end-of-season dithering.

[glennbuck]

NSIDC Daily Area: September 17th

Arctic Sea ice area: 2,656,684 million km^2, 

Change from yesterday: gain of 73,252 km^2

It looks like the NSIDC daily Area low was set on the 15th September at 2.583,432 million km^2, which would be the third lowest on record behind 2012 and 2016.

(2020) NSIDC: Area daily: 2.656               NSIDC: Extent daily:


NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 17
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC did put a revised update out at 10.30 Colorado time. I was out buying booze.
But here it is.

NSIDC Total Area as at 17-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,631,888 KM2         

Total Area           2,631,888    km2       -565,947    km2   <   2010's average. -383,304    km2   <   2019 -1,469,683    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change   -10    k   loss Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain Central Seas___   -17    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss Bering _______    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    7    k   gain Barents ______   -0    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    0    k   gain Beaufort_____    7    k   gain CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_   -23    k   loss Laptev_______   -0    k   loss Kara_________    0    k   gain

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 10 k, 40 k less than the 2010's average gain of 30 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 566 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,470 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 184 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 383 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 367 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 17-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,756,383 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 13 k, 14 k more than the 2010's average loss of 1k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 757 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,783 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 593 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 456 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 370 k more than 2012
_______________________________________
Extent definitely past the minimum.
Daily area probably past the minimum.
Maybe, or maybe not, just one day more for the 5-day average area vto reduce a teeny bit more.

people always seem to look for a clean switch from melting to freezing season & vice-versa, but that's not how it works.         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[gerontocrat]

And another day's oddness in the Central Arctic Sea ... but perhaps the last day

In the last four days Central Arctic Sea area has declined by just over 117k.
Central Arctic Sea extent declined by just another 4k on this day and is now a new record low minimum at 82k less than the 2012 minimum. And this melt has mainly happened at or farther north than 85 North.

And just maybe some real weather hits the central arctic by middle of next week

[be cause]

Definitely 'maybe' ..

 Q .. can anyone show me any of the almost 30,000 sq kms of sea ice that currently appears to reside in NSIDC's Kara ?   I seem to be in a parallel universe .   How it has been increasing lately in the warm waters is also beyond my ken .. b.c.

[gerontocrat]

Definitely 'maybe' ..

 Q .. can anyone show me any of the almost 30,000 sq kms of sea ice that currently appears to reside in NSIDC's Kara ? I seem to be in a parallel universe . How it has been increasing lately in the warm waters is also beyond my ken .. b.c.

It seems that NSIDC since forever has shown ice where it is not. See image.
Now they and we have to stick with it, as getting it right for this year means changing data going way back in the satellite record.

By now you should be used to being in a parallel universe - Global warming? No problem, more CO2 is good news.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 18^th, 2020:
      ADS has not post today's data yet...
      https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Edit:
They are one hour late.
Maybe they are evaluating yesterday's century break increase.
If someone else post the new data.

Thanks.

[Stephan]

From the image a further relevant increase should be expected. Large areas of newly formed ice in N Beaufort Sea.
But still no numerical data available.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 18-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,638,100 KM2         

Total Area           2,638,100    km2       -588,956    km2   <   2010's average. -426,064    km2   <   2019 -1,468,562    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    6    k   gain Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain Central Seas___   -1    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    6    k   gain Barents ______   -0    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    0    k   gain Beaufort_____    10    k   gain CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss Laptev_______    0    k   gain Kara_________    0    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 6 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average gain of 29 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 589 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,469 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 175 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 426 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 354 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 18-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,779,679 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 23 k, 18 k more than the 2010's average gain of 5k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 739 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,755 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 589 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 412 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 382 k more than 2012
___________________________________________
With NSIDC daily area up for a second day to 2,709,430 km2 looks like the NSIDC 5 day trailing average AREA minimum was on 17th September at 2,631,888 km2.

And with the NSIDC daily extent minimum way back on 11th September, it looks like the NSIDC 5 day trailing average EXTENT minimum was on 15th September at 3,736,632 km2.

Mind you, that has not stopped another drop in Central Arctic Sea (5 day) Area & Extent.
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Stephan]

The last evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Area of this melting season "relative area wise"
Two seas still lost ice:
ESS       - 63%
CAB       -   1%
Three seas have already gained some ice:
Grønland + 4%
Beaufort  + 6%
CAA        + 8%
The other seas (almost completely melted out) were not analysed.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 17^th, 2020:
     3,734,834 km², a 100K+ increase of 104,616 km². (confirmed)
September 18^th, 2020:
     3,745,309 km², an increase of 10,475 km².

September 19^th, 2020:
     3,723,586 km², a drop of -21,723 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent