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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1650 on: October 02, 2020, 05:33:16 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 1st, 2020:
     4,164,656 km2, an increase of 24,445 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2020, 05:58:37 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1651 on: October 02, 2020, 12:56:23 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,164,656 KM2 as at 01-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 24k, 22 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 46k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 610 k, which is 59 k, 9% less than the 10 year average of 669 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  295 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  871 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  316 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  343 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 6.7% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 161 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.42 million km2, 0.45 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
______________________________
N.B. Click  on image for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1652 on: October 02, 2020, 02:24:22 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 01-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,104,348 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,104,348    km2      
-648,448    km2   <   2010's average.
-524,227    km2   <   2019
-1,458,452    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    25    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    9    k   gain
Central Seas___    16    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
Beaufort_____    12    k   gain
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__   -7    k   loss
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 25 k, 35 k less than the 2010's average gain of 60 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 648 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,458 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 521 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 524 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 257 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 01-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,291,279 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 44 k, 26 k less than the 2010's average gain of 70k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 740 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,620 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 899 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 356 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 369 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1653 on: October 02, 2020, 07:48:09 PM »
Interestingly, ESS ice area of today is even lower than in mid September...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1654 on: October 03, 2020, 05:31:20 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 2nd, 2020:
     4,184,732 km2, an increase of 20,076 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2020, 05:41:01 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1655 on: October 03, 2020, 11:49:03 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,184,732 KM2 as at 02-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 20k, 13 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 33k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 630 k, which is 75 k, 11% less than the 10 year average of 705 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  307 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  829 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  309 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  356 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 7.1% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 160 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.41 million km2, 0.47 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
______________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

uniquorn

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1656 on: October 03, 2020, 01:42:40 PM »
Wipneus' Central Arctic Basin extent has recently been creeping beyond the limit set by 2012.
data to sep30
cryosphere today regional map
« Last Edit: October 03, 2020, 10:03:37 PM by uniquorn »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1657 on: October 03, 2020, 02:32:53 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 02-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,133,104 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,133,104    km2      
-669,653    km2   <   2010's average.
-538,917    km2   <   2019
-1,506,482    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    29    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas___    21    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
Beaufort_____    18    k   gain
CAA_________   -4    k   loss
East Siberian__   -8    k   loss
Central Arctic_    15    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 29 k, 21 k less than the 2010's average gain of 50 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 670 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,506 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 533 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 539 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 203 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 02-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,341,494 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 50 k, 17 k less than the 2010's average gain of 67k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 756 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,652 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 875 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 369 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 352 k more than 2012   
________________________________________
Looks like area might be lowest in the satellite record after a few days      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1658 on: October 03, 2020, 02:42:29 PM »
NSIDC data
The Central Arctic Sea (CAS) & ESS graphs are attached. Some of the CAS increase is from freeze, some from ice drift from the ESS.

Note that the graph posted by Uniquorn above is of the CAB, area 4.4 million km2, which is 1.2 million km2 greater than the Central Arctic Sea from NSIDC.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1659 on: October 03, 2020, 09:59:44 PM »
Still very impressive losses of area and extent in the ESS.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1660 on: October 03, 2020, 10:04:02 PM »
But will the ESS reach 2012's low?
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1661 on: October 04, 2020, 05:30:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 3rd, 2020:
     4,205,637 km2, an increase of 20,905 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2020, 05:36:59 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1662 on: October 04, 2020, 12:44:34 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,205,637 KM2 as at 03-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 21k, 25 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 46k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 651 k, which is 97 k, 13% less than the 10 year average of 747 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  310 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  829 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  311 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  340 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 7.5% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 159 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.39 million km2, 0.49 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

Caveat: At this time last year and for a couple of weeks longer, it looked like 2019 might crash the record low maximum. It did not. Ho hum
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1663 on: October 04, 2020, 02:22:15 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 03-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,168,596 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,168,596    km2      
-679,694    km2   <   2010's average.
-539,318    km2   <   2019
-1,550,482    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    35    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    2    k   gain
Central Seas___    33    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____    20    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -6    k   loss
Central Arctic_    20    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________    0    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 35 k, 11 k less than the 2010's average gain of 46 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 680 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,550 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 521 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 539 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 153 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 03-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,386,403 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 45 k, 16 k less than the 2010's average gain of 61k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 772 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,700 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 848 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 376 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 339 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

jdallen

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1664 on: October 04, 2020, 08:28:15 PM »
<snip>
Sea ice area gain on this day 35 k, 11 k less than the 2010's average gain of 46 k         
<snip>
I anticipate 2020 will cross over 2012 to become lowest in both extent and area in about two weeks time, +/- a few.

This space for Rent.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1665 on: October 04, 2020, 08:36:24 PM »
Five more days like this and ESS ice area will be at zero.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1666 on: October 05, 2020, 05:35:30 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 4th, 2020:
     4,223,302 km2, an increase of 17,665 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2020, 05:52:55 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1667 on: October 05, 2020, 12:56:46 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,223,302 KM2 as at 04-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 18k, 41 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 59k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 669 k, which is 137 k, 17% less than the 10 year average of 805 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  311 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  875 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  296 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  366 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 8.1% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 158 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.34 million km2, 0.53 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1668 on: October 05, 2020, 03:01:40 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 04-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,209,083 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,209,083    km2      
-684,098    km2   <   2010's average.
-539,076    km2   <   2019
-1,588,500    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    40    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    2    k   gain
Central Seas___    39    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
Beaufort_____    10    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    29    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________    0    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 40 k, 5 k less than the 2010's average gain of 45 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 684 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,588 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 480 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 539 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 111 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 04-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,434,436 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 48 k, 19 k less than the 2010's average gain of 67k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 792 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,750 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 818 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 384 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 318 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1669 on: October 05, 2020, 07:15:58 PM »
Five more days like this and ESS ice area will be at zero.
Six more days like this and ESS ice area will reach zero.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1670 on: October 06, 2020, 05:34:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 5th, 2020:
     4,276,188 km2, an increase of 52,886 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2020, 05:55:05 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1671 on: October 06, 2020, 12:47:01 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,276,188 KM2 as at 05-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 53k, 11 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 64k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 721 k, which is 151 k, 17% less than the 10 year average of 873 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  280 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  878 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  247 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  376 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 8.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 157 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.33 million km2, 0.55 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

Although history tells us that this result is highly unlikely, it is a good measure of the extent to which sea ice extent gain must accelerate to catch up as refreeze is delayed.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1672 on: October 06, 2020, 02:39:28 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 05-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,255,161 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,255,161    km2      
-681,970    km2   <   2010's average.
-519,736    km2   <   2019
-1,617,450    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    46    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    3    k   gain
Central Seas___    43    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    39    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________    0    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 46 k, 2 k more than the 2010's average gain of 44 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 682 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,617 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 414 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 520 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 86 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 05-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,485,831 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 51 k, 18 k less than the 2010's average gain of 69k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 809 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,797 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 793 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 384 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 299 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1673 on: October 06, 2020, 02:44:18 PM »
NSIDC Data

Both the ESS and the Laptev sea ice extent are at record lows. Perhaps of the greatest interest, given the high heat content of the sea, will be how long before the Laptev re-freeze happens, and how quickly.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1674 on: October 06, 2020, 04:54:11 PM »
All the NSIDC Area graphs - looking from maximum to maximum.

Peripheral Seas - 1
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1675 on: October 06, 2020, 04:56:47 PM »
All the NSIDC Area graphs - looking from maximum to maximum.

Peripheral Seas - 2
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1676 on: October 06, 2020, 05:00:45 PM »
All the NSIDC Area graphs - looking from maximum to maximum.

High Arctic - 1
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1677 on: October 06, 2020, 05:41:05 PM »
All the NSIDC Area graphs - looking from maximum to maximum.

High Arctic - 2

Seas of the Russian shore - the ones to watch at the moment?
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1678 on: October 06, 2020, 09:02:36 PM »
Thanks again gerontocrat for these very clear and informative graphs. :-)
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1679 on: October 07, 2020, 05:35:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 6th, 2020:
     4,322,747 km2, an increase of 46,559 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2020, 05:46:47 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1680 on: October 07, 2020, 12:24:00 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,322,747 KM2 as at 06-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 47k, 30 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 77k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 768 k, which is 183 k, 19% less than the 10 year average of 951 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  279 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  852 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  181 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  424 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 9.6% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 156 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.30 million km2, 0.58 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

Just 5 days to an inflection point where 2020 sea ice extent could be lowest in the satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1681 on: October 07, 2020, 02:31:05 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 06-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,289,080 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,289,080    km2      
-689,755    km2   <   2010's average.
-502,835    km2   <   2019
-1,654,119    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    34    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -3    k   loss
Central Seas___    37    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    38    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________    0    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 34 k, 8 k less than the 2010's average gain of 42 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 690 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,654 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 351 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 503 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 56 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 06-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,525,695 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 40 k, 10 k less than the 2010's average gain of 50k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 819 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,842 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 774 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 361 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 285 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1682 on: October 08, 2020, 06:28:13 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 7th, 2020:
     4,359,627 km2, an increase of 36,880 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2020, 06:38:24 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1683 on: October 08, 2020, 11:39:07 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,359,627 KM2 as at 07-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 37k, 53 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 90k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 805 k, which is 235 k, 23% less than the 10 year average of 1,040 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  291 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  820 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  136 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  489 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 10.5% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 155 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.25 million km2, 0.63 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

The chances of daily extent being at a record low for the day by the end of the weekend have increased significantly
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1684 on: October 08, 2020, 01:33:38 PM »
NSIDC Data

Both the ESS and the Laptev sea ice extent are at record lows. Perhaps of the greatest interest, given the high heat content of the sea, will be how long before the Laptev re-freeze happens, and how quickly.

Small quibble, but in 2007 ESS area and extent was even lower. And this metric bottoms out lately, the 3rd of October. But we are not far away (25 000 km² for area, not zero but almost) and still loosing ice. But overall, the Russian side (ESS + Laptev + Kara + Barents) is at a record low, and still loosing ice, which is pretty impressive.

P.S. : Graphs made in a hurry... (and, it is the same idea with extent by the way)
« Last Edit: October 08, 2020, 01:59:07 PM by aslan »

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1685 on: October 08, 2020, 02:19:31 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 07-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,328,959 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,328,959    km2      
-702,918    km2   <   2010's average.
-480,647    km2   <   2019
-1,688,704    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    40    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    0    k   gain
Central Seas___    40    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -9    k   loss
CAA_________    7    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    39    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 40 k, 13 k less than the 2010's average gain of 53 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 703 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,689 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 304 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 481 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 30 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 07-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,563,984 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 38 k, 17 k less than the 2010's average gain of 55k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 836 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,891 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 752 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 338 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 254 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1686 on: October 08, 2020, 05:02:21 PM »
Most (but not all) of the change in sea ice maximum is to do with the sea ice loss in the peripheral seas. Here is an analysis thereof.

NSIDC PERIPHERAL ARCTIC SEAS - ICE AREA:  264,701 KM2 as at 07-Oct-2020

- Area loss on this day 0k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of -3k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 168 k, 020 k, 13.2% more than the 10 year average of 149 k.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- Extent is  4 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  -28 k LESS than 2016
______________________________-
On average 3.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 157 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.47 million km2, 0.35 million km2 above the 2018 minimum of 4.11 million km2.
________________________________________________________
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1687 on: October 08, 2020, 05:40:35 PM »
In contrast to the peripheral seas of the Arctic, the seven seas of the High Arctic used to completely freeze over every year when measured by extent. Wobbles started areound a decade ago.  Area, however, has fluctuated with as yet no convincing trend.

The attached graphs show the contrast between High Arctic sea ice area and extent.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1688 on: October 08, 2020, 06:25:45 PM »
In contrast to the High Arctic, here are the graphs for the Peripheral Arctic from minimum to maximum and the March monthly average graphs.

Loss of sea ice in the Arctic Peripheral seas is a well-stablished trend.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1689 on: October 09, 2020, 05:46:22 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 8th, 2020:
     4,404,243 km2, an increase of 44,616 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2020, 05:56:36 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jdallen

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1690 on: October 09, 2020, 07:58:10 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 8th, 2020:
     4,404,243 km2, an increase of 44,616 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
I'm pretty certain - 2020 passes 2012 as lowest year in all metrics over the next week.

Not quite as fast as I thought, but close.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1691 on: October 09, 2020, 11:54:38 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,404,243 KM2 as at 08-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 45k, 35 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 80k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 849 k, which is 274 k, 24% less than the 10 year average of 1,124 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  247 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  780 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  89 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  546 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 11.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 154 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.21 million km2, 0.66 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_________________________________________
2020 looks like being lowest extent in the satellite record very soon- my guess on probabilities is:-
Friday's data - unlikely,
Saturday's data - possible,
Sunday's data - very likely.

How long it stays lowest will be interesting.

_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge
« Last Edit: October 09, 2020, 12:07:58 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1692 on: October 09, 2020, 02:23:53 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 08-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,375,105 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,375,105    km2      
-718,915    km2   <   2010's average.
-438,695    km2   <   2019
-1,716,258    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    46    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    1    k   gain
Central Seas___    46    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________    8    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    37    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________    0    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 46 k, 16 k less than the 2010's average gain of 62 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 719 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,716 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 268 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 439 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 6 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 08-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,598,932 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 35 k, 37 k less than the 2010's average gain of 72k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 872 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,941 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 744 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 324 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 205 k more than 2012   
_______________________________________________
Area at lowest tomorrow, extent in about a week?
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1693 on: October 09, 2020, 03:44:18 PM »
I expect we will be numero uno tomorrow?
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1694 on: October 09, 2020, 09:59:25 PM »
I added the monthly extent value for september 2020 into my long-term plot where I calculate the extent anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average (1979-2020) September extent is now 6.01 M km². September 2020 had an average extent of 3.93 M km², which is 2.08 M km² less than that long-term average.
The much higher than normal losses in July 2020 had pushed the actual value below the red long-term linear trend line, where it remains in August and in September. The difference of the actual month from that trend line is -1.01 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this September should have been at 4.94 M km²).
The slope of the long-term linear trend line has become again steeper by two digits (-0.0555 instead of -0.0553).

See attached graph. Click to enlarge.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1695 on: October 10, 2020, 06:07:23 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 9th, 2020:
     4,472,307 km2, an increase of 68,064 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2020, 06:20:21 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1696 on: October 10, 2020, 10:03:55 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,472,307 KM2 as at 09-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 68k, 16 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 84k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 918 k, which is 302 k, 25% less than the 10 year average of 1,220 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  166 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  758 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  66 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  587 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 12.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 153 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.20 million km2, 0.68 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

I am still going for Sunday's data, Monday's posting for 2020 at a record low sea ice extent for the day.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1697 on: October 10, 2020, 02:48:29 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 09-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,419,349 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,419,349    km2      
-746,485    km2   <   2010's average.
-411,705    km2   <   2019
-1,749,091    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    44    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -0    k   loss
Central Seas___    45    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____    9    k   gain
CAA_________    9    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    25    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 44 k, 28 k less than the 2010's average gain of 72 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 746 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,749 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 250 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 412 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 20 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 09-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,632,596 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 34 k, 42 k less than the 2010's average gain of 76k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 915 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,995 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 734 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 310 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 161 k more than 2012
_______________________________________
And as expected NSIDC area is again writing a line on a previously unused part of the graph paper (for the 19th day this year).         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1698 on: October 11, 2020, 05:39:47 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 10th, 2020:
     4,547,527 km2, an increase of 75,220 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1699 on: October 11, 2020, 09:57:53 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,547,527 KM2 as at 10-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 75k, 11 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 86k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 993 k, which is 327 k, 25% less than the 10 year average of 1,320 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  151 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  702 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  31 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  565 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 13.2% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 152 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.19 million km2, 0.69 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)