2020 Sea ice area and extent data

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 1^st, 2020:
     4,164,656 km², an increase of 24,445 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,164,656 KM2 as at 01-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 24k, 22 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 46k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 610 k, which is 59 k, 9% less than the 10 year average of 669 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  295 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  871 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  316 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  343 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 6.7% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 161 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.42 million km2, 0.45 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
______________________________
N.B. Click  on image for full-size

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 01-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,104,348 KM2         

Total Area           3,104,348    km2       -648,448    km2   <   2010's average. -524,227    km2   <   2019 -1,458,452    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    25    k   gain Peripheral Seas    9    k   gain Central Seas___    16    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    2    k   gain Bering _______    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    2    k   gain Barents ______    1    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -1    k   loss Beaufort_____    12    k   gain CAA_________    4    k   gain East Siberian__   -7    k   loss Central Arctic_    9    k   gain Laptev_______    0    k   gain Kara_________   -1    k   loss

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 25 k, 35 k less than the 2010's average gain of 60 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 648 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,458 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 521 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 524 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 257 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 01-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,291,279 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 44 k, 26 k less than the 2010's average gain of 70k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 740 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,620 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 899 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 356 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 369 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Stephan]

Interestingly, ESS ice area of today is even lower than in mid September...

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 2^nd, 2020:
     4,184,732 km², an increase of 20,076 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,184,732 KM2 as at 02-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 20k, 13 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 33k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 630 k, which is 75 k, 11% less than the 10 year average of 705 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  307 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  829 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  309 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  356 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 7.1% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 160 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.41 million km2, 0.47 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
______________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge

[uniquorn]

Wipneus' Central Arctic Basin extent has recently been creeping beyond the limit set by 2012.
data to sep30
cryosphere today regional map

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 02-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,133,104 KM2         

Total Area           3,133,104    km2       -669,653    km2   <   2010's average. -538,917    km2   <   2019 -1,506,482    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    29    k   gain Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain Central Seas___    21    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    2    k   gain Bering _______    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    1    k   gain Barents ______    1    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -1    k   loss Beaufort_____    18    k   gain CAA_________   -4    k   loss East Siberian__   -8    k   loss Central Arctic_    15    k   gain Laptev_______   -0    k   loss Kara_________   -0    k   loss

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 29 k, 21 k less than the 2010's average gain of 50 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 670 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,506 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 533 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 539 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 203 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 02-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,341,494 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 50 k, 17 k less than the 2010's average gain of 67k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 756 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,652 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 875 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 369 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 352 k more than 2012   
________________________________________
Looks like area might be lowest in the satellite record after a few days      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC data
The Central Arctic Sea (CAS) & ESS graphs are attached. Some of the CAS increase is from freeze, some from ice drift from the ESS.

Note that the graph posted by Uniquorn above is of the CAB, area 4.4 million km2, which is 1.2 million km2 greater than the Central Arctic Sea from NSIDC.

[Stephan]

Still very impressive losses of area and extent in the ESS.

[Tor Bejnar]

But will the ESS reach 2012's low?

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 3^rd, 2020:
     4,205,637 km², an increase of 20,905 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,205,637 KM2 as at 03-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 21k, 25 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 46k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 651 k, which is 97 k, 13% less than the 10 year average of 747 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  310 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  829 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  311 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  340 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 7.5% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 159 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.39 million km2, 0.49 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

Caveat: At this time last year and for a couple of weeks longer, it looked like 2019 might crash the record low maximum. It did not. Ho hum
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 03-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,168,596 KM2         

Total Area           3,168,596    km2       -679,694    km2   <   2010's average. -539,318    km2   <   2019 -1,550,482    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    35    k   gain Peripheral Seas    2    k   gain Central Seas___    33    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    3    k   gain Bering _______    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____   -5    k   loss Barents ______    1    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    0    k   gain Beaufort_____    20    k   gain CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__   -6    k   loss Central Arctic_    20    k   gain Laptev_______   -0    k   loss Kara_________    0    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 35 k, 11 k less than the 2010's average gain of 46 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 680 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,550 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 521 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 539 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 153 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 03-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,386,403 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 45 k, 16 k less than the 2010's average gain of 61k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 772 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,700 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 848 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 376 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 339 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[jdallen]

<snip>
Sea ice area gain on this day 35 k, 11 k less than the 2010's average gain of 46 k         
<snip>

I anticipate 2020 will cross over 2012 to become lowest in both extent and area in about two weeks time, +/- a few.

[Stephan]

Five more days like this and ESS ice area will be at zero.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 4^th, 2020:
     4,223,302 km², an increase of 17,665 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,223,302 KM2 as at 04-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 18k, 41 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 59k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 669 k, which is 137 k, 17% less than the 10 year average of 805 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  311 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  875 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  296 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  366 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 8.1% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 158 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.34 million km2, 0.53 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 04-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,209,083 KM2         

Total Area           3,209,083    km2       -684,098    km2   <   2010's average. -539,076    km2   <   2019 -1,588,500    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    40    k   gain Peripheral Seas    2    k   gain Central Seas___    39    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    4    k   gain Bering _______    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____   -7    k   loss Barents ______    1    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    2    k   gain Beaufort_____    10    k   gain CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__   -4    k   loss Central Arctic_    29    k   gain Laptev_______    0    k   gain Kara_________    0    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 40 k, 5 k less than the 2010's average gain of 45 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 684 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,588 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 480 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 539 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 111 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 04-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,434,436 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 48 k, 19 k less than the 2010's average gain of 67k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 792 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,750 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 818 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 384 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 318 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Stephan]

Five more days like this and ESS ice area will be at zero.

Six more days like this and ESS ice area will reach zero.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 5^th, 2020:
     4,276,188 km², an increase of 52,886 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,276,188 KM2 as at 05-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 53k, 11 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 64k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 721 k, which is 151 k, 17% less than the 10 year average of 873 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  280 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  878 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  247 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  376 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 8.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 157 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.33 million km2, 0.55 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

Although history tells us that this result is highly unlikely, it is a good measure of the extent to which sea ice extent gain must accelerate to catch up as refreeze is delayed.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 05-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,255,161 KM2         

Total Area           3,255,161    km2       -681,970    km2   <   2010's average. -519,736    km2   <   2019 -1,617,450    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    46    k   gain Peripheral Seas    3    k   gain Central Seas___    43    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    4    k   gain Bering _______    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____   -5    k   loss Barents ______    1    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    2    k   gain Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss CAA_________    4    k   gain East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_    39    k   gain Laptev_______    0    k   gain Kara_________    0    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 46 k, 2 k more than the 2010's average gain of 44 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 682 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,617 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 414 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 520 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 86 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 05-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,485,831 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 51 k, 18 k less than the 2010's average gain of 69k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 809 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,797 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 793 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 384 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 299 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Data

Both the ESS and the Laptev sea ice extent are at record lows. Perhaps of the greatest interest, given the high heat content of the sea, will be how long before the Laptev re-freeze happens, and how quickly.

[gerontocrat]

All the NSIDC Area graphs - looking from maximum to maximum.

Peripheral Seas - 1

[gerontocrat]

All the NSIDC Area graphs - looking from maximum to maximum.

Peripheral Seas - 2

[gerontocrat]

All the NSIDC Area graphs - looking from maximum to maximum.

High Arctic - 1

[gerontocrat]

All the NSIDC Area graphs - looking from maximum to maximum.

High Arctic - 2

Seas of the Russian shore - the ones to watch at the moment?

[Stephan]

Thanks again gerontocrat for these very clear and informative graphs. :-)

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 6^th, 2020:
     4,322,747 km², an increase of 46,559 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,322,747 KM2 as at 06-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 47k, 30 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 77k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 768 k, which is 183 k, 19% less than the 10 year average of 951 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  279 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  852 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  181 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  424 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 9.6% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 156 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.30 million km2, 0.58 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

Just 5 days to an inflection point where 2020 sea ice extent could be lowest in the satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 06-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,289,080 KM2         

Total Area           3,289,080    km2       -689,755    km2   <   2010's average. -502,835    km2   <   2019 -1,654,119    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    34    k   gain Peripheral Seas   -3    k   loss Central Seas___    37    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    1    k   gain Bering _______    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____   -6    k   loss Barents ______    0    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    1    k   gain Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss CAA_________    4    k   gain East Siberian__    0    k   gain Central Arctic_    38    k   gain Laptev_______    0    k   gain Kara_________    0    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 34 k, 8 k less than the 2010's average gain of 42 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 690 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,654 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 351 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 503 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 56 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 06-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,525,695 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 40 k, 10 k less than the 2010's average gain of 50k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 819 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,842 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 774 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 361 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 285 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 7^th, 2020:
     4,359,627 km², an increase of 36,880 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,359,627 KM2 as at 07-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 37k, 53 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 90k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 805 k, which is 235 k, 23% less than the 10 year average of 1,040 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  291 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  820 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  136 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  489 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 10.5% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 155 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.25 million km2, 0.63 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

The chances of daily extent being at a record low for the day by the end of the weekend have increased significantly
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge

[aslan]

NSIDC Data

Both the ESS and the Laptev sea ice extent are at record lows. Perhaps of the greatest interest, given the high heat content of the sea, will be how long before the Laptev re-freeze happens, and how quickly.

Small quibble, but in 2007 ESS area and extent was even lower. And this metric bottoms out lately, the 3rd of October. But we are not far away (25 000 km² for area, not zero but almost) and still loosing ice. But overall, the Russian side (ESS + Laptev + Kara + Barents) is at a record low, and still loosing ice, which is pretty impressive.

P.S. : Graphs made in a hurry... (and, it is the same idea with extent by the way)

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 07-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,328,959 KM2         

Total Area           3,328,959    km2       -702,918    km2   <   2010's average. -480,647    km2   <   2019 -1,688,704    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    40    k   gain Peripheral Seas    0    k   gain Central Seas___    40    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    1    k   gain Bering _______    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____   -5    k   loss Barents ______    0    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    1    k   gain Beaufort_____   -9    k   loss CAA_________    7    k   gain East Siberian__    3    k   gain Central Arctic_    39    k   gain Laptev_______   -0    k   loss Kara_________   -0    k   loss

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 40 k, 13 k less than the 2010's average gain of 53 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 703 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,689 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 304 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 481 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 30 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 07-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,563,984 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 38 k, 17 k less than the 2010's average gain of 55k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 836 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,891 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 752 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 338 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 254 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[gerontocrat]

Most (but not all) of the change in sea ice maximum is to do with the sea ice loss in the peripheral seas. Here is an analysis thereof.

NSIDC PERIPHERAL ARCTIC SEAS - ICE AREA:  264,701 KM2 as at 07-Oct-2020

- Area loss on this day 0k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of -3k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 168 k, 020 k, 13.2% more than the 10 year average of 149 k.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- Extent is  4 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  -28 k LESS than 2016
______________________________-
On average 3.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 157 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.47 million km2, 0.35 million km2 above the 2018 minimum of 4.11 million km2.
________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

In contrast to the peripheral seas of the Arctic, the seven seas of the High Arctic used to completely freeze over every year when measured by extent. Wobbles started areound a decade ago.  Area, however, has fluctuated with as yet no convincing trend.

The attached graphs show the contrast between High Arctic sea ice area and extent.

[gerontocrat]

In contrast to the High Arctic, here are the graphs for the Peripheral Arctic from minimum to maximum and the March monthly average graphs.

Loss of sea ice in the Arctic Peripheral seas is a well-stablished trend.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 8^th, 2020:
     4,404,243 km², an increase of 44,616 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[jdallen]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 8^th, 2020:
     4,404,243 km², an increase of 44,616 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

I'm pretty certain - 2020 passes 2012 as lowest year in all metrics over the next week.

Not quite as fast as I thought, but close.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,404,243 KM2 as at 08-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 45k, 35 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 80k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 849 k, which is 274 k, 24% less than the 10 year average of 1,124 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  247 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  780 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  89 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  546 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 11.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 154 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.21 million km2, 0.66 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_________________________________________
2020 looks like being lowest extent in the satellite record very soon- my guess on probabilities is:-
Friday's data - unlikely,
Saturday's data - possible,
Sunday's data - very likely.

How long it stays lowest will be interesting.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 08-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,375,105 KM2         

Total Area           3,375,105    km2       -718,915    km2   <   2010's average. -438,695    km2   <   2019 -1,716,258    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    46    k   gain Peripheral Seas    1    k   gain Central Seas___    46    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss Bering _______    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    0    k   gain Barents ______   -0    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    2    k   gain Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss CAA_________    8    k   gain East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic_    37    k   gain Laptev_______   -0    k   loss Kara_________    0    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 46 k, 16 k less than the 2010's average gain of 62 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 719 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,716 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 268 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 439 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 6 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 08-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,598,932 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 35 k, 37 k less than the 2010's average gain of 72k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 872 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,941 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 744 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 324 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 205 k more than 2012   
_______________________________________________
Area at lowest tomorrow, extent in about a week?
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Tom_Mazanec]

I expect we will be numero uno tomorrow?

[Stephan]

I added the monthly extent value for september 2020 into my long-term plot where I calculate the extent anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average (1979-2020) September extent is now 6.01 M km². September 2020 had an average extent of 3.93 M km², which is 2.08 M km² less than that long-term average.
The much higher than normal losses in July 2020 had pushed the actual value below the red long-term linear trend line, where it remains in August and in September. The difference of the actual month from that trend line is -1.01 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this September should have been at 4.94 M km²).
The slope of the long-term linear trend line has become again steeper by two digits (-0.0555 instead of -0.0553).

See attached graph. Click to enlarge.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 9^th, 2020:
     4,472,307 km², an increase of 68,064 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,472,307 KM2 as at 09-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 68k, 16 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 84k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 918 k, which is 302 k, 25% less than the 10 year average of 1,220 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  166 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  758 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  66 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  587 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 12.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 153 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.20 million km2, 0.68 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

I am still going for Sunday's data, Monday's posting for 2020 at a record low sea ice extent for the day.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 09-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,419,349 KM2         

Total Area           3,419,349    km2       -746,485    km2   <   2010's average. -411,705    km2   <   2019 -1,749,091    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    44    k   gain Peripheral Seas   -0    k   loss Central Seas___    45    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____   -0    k   loss Barents ______   -0    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    3    k   gain Beaufort_____    9    k   gain CAA_________    9    k   gain East Siberian__    1    k   gain Central Arctic_    25    k   gain Laptev_______   -0    k   loss Kara_________   -1    k   loss

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 44 k, 28 k less than the 2010's average gain of 72 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 746 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,749 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 250 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 412 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 20 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 09-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,632,596 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 34 k, 42 k less than the 2010's average gain of 76k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 915 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,995 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 734 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 310 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 161 k more than 2012
_______________________________________
And as expected NSIDC area is again writing a line on a previously unused part of the graph paper (for the 19th day this year).         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 10^th, 2020:
     4,547,527 km², an increase of 75,220 km².
     2020 is 2^nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,547,527 KM2 as at 10-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 75k, 11 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 86k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 993 k, which is 327 k, 25% less than the 10 year average of 1,320 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  151 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  702 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  31 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  565 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 13.2% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 152 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.19 million km2, 0.69 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge