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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1700 on: October 11, 2020, 05:09:25 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 10-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,483,320 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,483,320    km2      
-757,941    km2   <   2010's average.
-386,368    km2   <   2019
-1,768,281    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    64    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas___    58    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
Beaufort_____    20    k   gain
CAA_________    10    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    22    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________    0    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 64 k, 11 k less than the 2010's average gain of 75 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 758 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,768 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 231 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 386 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 31 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 10-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,676,540 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 44 k, 36 k less than the 2010's average gain of 80k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 951 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,043 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 709 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 297 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 109 k more than 2012   
___________________________________________
And NSIDC area again writes a line on a previously unused part of the graph paper (now for the 20th day this year),  & extent now only 2nd lowest by 109k.

BUT it looks like daily area and extent gains are increasing, though still below the average for this time of year.   

      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1701 on: October 12, 2020, 05:50:31 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 11th, 2020:
     4,636,863 km2, an increase of 89,336 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2020, 06:00:54 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1702 on: October 12, 2020, 12:36:52 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,636,863 KM2 as at 11-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 89k, 9 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 98k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,082 k, which is 347 k, 24% less than the 10 year average of 1,429 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  128 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  657 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  45 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  507 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 14.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 151 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.18 million km2, 0.70 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
______________________________________
Lowest extent for the day - for the 38th day this year.
Should stay at lowest for at least the next few days, though if daily extent gain is at or above average this week, extent will likely end up above 2019 by next Sunday.

_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click  on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1703 on: October 12, 2020, 02:13:23 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 11-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,562,250 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,562,250    km2      
-759,396    km2   <   2010's average.
-351,178    km2   <   2019
-1,778,868    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    79    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    8    k   gain
Central Seas___    71    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    8    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    7    k   gain
Beaufort_____    26    k   gain
CAA_________    14    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    24    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 79 k, 1 k less than the 2010's average gain of 80 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 759 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,779 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 202 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 351 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 26 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 11-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,734,385 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 58 k, 30 k less than the 2010's average gain of 88k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 981 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,083 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 663 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 270 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 50 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1704 on: October 13, 2020, 05:34:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 12th, 2020:
     4,744,432 km2, a century break increase of 107,569 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2020, 05:42:13 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1705 on: October 13, 2020, 11:03:14 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,744,432 KM2 as at 12-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 108k, 11 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 97k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,190 k, which is 336 k, 22% less than the 10 year average of 1,525 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  87 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  624 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  51 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  392 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 15.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 150 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.19 million km2, 0.69 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
Extent is lowest in the satellite record for a second day and for the 39th day this year.
However, if daily extent gain continues at the current rate or more, 2020 extent will be greater than 2019 extent  in 2 or 3 days.

_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1706 on: October 13, 2020, 02:45:01 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 12-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,637,255 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,637,255    km2      
-772,061    km2   <   2010's average.
-333,588    km2   <   2019
-1,792,185    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    75    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas___    69    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
Beaufort_____    28    k   gain
CAA_________    14    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    19    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 75 k, 13 k less than the 2010's average gain of 88 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 772 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,792 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 193 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 334 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 16 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 12-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,797,666 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 63 k, 30 k less than the 2010's average gain of 93k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1010 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,116 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 630 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 250 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 9 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1707 on: October 14, 2020, 05:35:12 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 13th, 2020:
     4,824,373 km2, an increase of 79,941 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2020, 05:44:48 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1708 on: October 14, 2020, 12:11:56 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,824,373 KM2 as at 13-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 80k, 15 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 95k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,270 k, which is 351 k, 22% less than the 10 year average of 1,621 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  56 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  613 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  87 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  393 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 16.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 149 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.17 million km2, 0.70 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
____________________________________________________________

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for a third day and for the 40th day this year.
However, if daily extent gain continues at the current rate or more, 2020 extent will be greater than 2019 extent in 2 or 3 days.

_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1709 on: October 14, 2020, 02:32:57 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 13-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,720,112 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,720,112    km2      
-781,295    km2   <   2010's average.
-319,864    km2   <   2019
-1,801,749    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    83    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    13    k   gain
Central Seas___    70    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    11    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
Beaufort_____    27    k   gain
CAA_________    15    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    17    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 83 k, 9 k less than the 2010's average gain of 92 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 781 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,802 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 175 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 320 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 0 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 13-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,881,365 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 84 k, 7 k less than the 2010's average gain of 91k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1017 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,132 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 575 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 205 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 27 k less than 2012   
____________________________________________
Extent and Area on this day the lowest in the satellite record - as regards area, by a mere 247km2 compared with 2012. But for how much longer?      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1710 on: October 15, 2020, 05:34:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 14th, 2020:
     4,905,681 km2, an increase of 81,308 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2020, 05:43:48 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1711 on: October 15, 2020, 10:56:08 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,905,681 KM2 as at 14-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 81k, 37 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 118k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,351 k, which is 392 k, 23% less than the 10 year average of 1,743 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  37 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  634 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  196 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  431 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 17.5% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 148 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.14 million km2, 0.74 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_________________________________________________
2012 daily extent gain in the next few days is very large, and 2020 extent already 196k less than 2012.
2020 extent now only 37k less than 2019, but 2019 daily extent gain starts to increase from now. What will 2020 daily extent gain do?
So it looks like for some time 2020 is more or less guaranteed to be 2nd lowest, and it's a toss-up whether it will be lowest.

_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1712 on: October 15, 2020, 02:21:42 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 14-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,812,393 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,812,393    km2      
-782,320    km2   <   2010's average.
-293,348    km2   <   2019
-1,805,095    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    92    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    10    k   gain
Central Seas___    82    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    10    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
Beaufort_____    29    k   gain
CAA_________    10    k   gain
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_    26    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 92 k, 1 k less than the 2010's average gain of 93 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 782 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,805 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 149 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 293 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 0 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 14-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,966,234 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 85 k, 12 k less than the 2010's average gain of 97k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1029 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,155 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 534 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 171 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 98 k less than 2012   
_________________________________________
Extent still lowest, but area back to 2nd lowest by a mere 463km2. What a tease.      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1713 on: October 15, 2020, 02:29:57 PM »
Actually I think when you tie a record the latter is number 1.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1714 on: October 16, 2020, 05:35:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 15th, 2020:
     4,938,567 km2, an increase of 32,886 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2020, 05:46:30 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1715 on: October 16, 2020, 10:26:33 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,938,567 KM2 as at 15-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 33k, 102 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 135k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,384 k, which is 495 k, 26% less than the 10 year average of 1,878 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  96 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  722 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  452 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  516 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 18.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 147 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.04 million km2, 0.84 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_____________________________________________________
Extent is 1.2 million km2 less than the 2010's average - well above the average decadal extent loss.

A very very low extent gain on this day  looks like it has cemented 2020 as 2nd lowest for some time, and if extent gains from now just marginally below average at #1.

It is difficult to believe that the maximum will be so low as the average projection suggests. But it does mean a very large amount of extent gain is being significantly delayed.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1716 on: October 16, 2020, 10:40:08 AM »
JAXA Data - a bit more

If extent gains for the remauinder of October are at average (which is high at this time of year), the October monthly average will be a record low for the second year running, at over 200k less than the 2019 record low, and 800k or nearly 10 years below the linear trend value for October 2020.

Even if extent gains follow 2019's accelerated trend at the end of the month a record low will still happen.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1717 on: October 16, 2020, 02:20:10 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 15-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,887,961 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,887,961    km2      
-805,384    km2   <   2010's average.
-275,792    km2   <   2019
-1,826,124    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    76    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    8    k   gain
Central Seas___    68    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
Beaufort_____    27    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_    23    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 76 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average gain of 99 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 805 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,826 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 142 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 276 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 48 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 15-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,039,187 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 73 k, 29 k less than the 2010's average gain of 102k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1058 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,193 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 523 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 143 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 201 k less than 2012
_______________________________________
After a blip on the 14th, area now lowest again by a more convincing 48k.    
So JAXA extent & NSIDC area and extent (5 day average) and NSIDC Area and Extent (daily value) all lowest on this day, i.e. a Full House      

Extent and area gains continue below average

___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1718 on: October 16, 2020, 02:37:16 PM »
NSIDC Area & Extent Graphs.

Attached are the summary graphs for the High Arctic and the peripheral Seas, that show
- that the Peripheral Seas are losing maximum far more than the High Arctic,
- area is far more variable than extent.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1719 on: October 17, 2020, 06:00:03 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 16th, 2020:
     4,928,965 km2, a drop of -9,602 km2:o
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted the 5 years with a daily lowest min in September. In million km2:
     [ 1) 2012: 3.18,  2) 2020: 3.55,  3) 2019: 3.96,  4) 2016: 4.02  &  5) 2007: 4.07 ].
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2020, 06:34:25 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1720 on: October 17, 2020, 11:33:35 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,928,965 KM2 as at 16-Oct-2020

- Extent loss on this day 10k, 132 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 122k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,374 k, which is 627 k, 31% less than the 10 year average of 2,001 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  193 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  784 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  714 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  625 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 20.1% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 146 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.90 million km2, 0.97 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_____________________________________________________
A daily extent loss  in October is unusual, but has happened 12 times in the last 18 years.
What is unusual, perhaps unprecedented,  is to have a simple projection of a record low maximum by nearly 1 million km2.  It looks very much like fantasy land, but that is where the data, i.e. a low minimum and very low freeze to date, have taken us.

Every day that extent gain is delayed is one day less for extent gain to occur and from a lower extent value.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1721 on: October 17, 2020, 11:51:37 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,928,965 KM2 as at 16-Oct-2020

_____________________________________________________
A daily extent loss  in October is unusual, but has happened 12 times in the last 18 years.

_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
Thanks !
could you say what are these 12 dates?
I am curious to know if there is an increase in the frequency of these occurrences (even if I know that we cannot make a trend with 12 values), and how many are after October 15, where the gain is maximum
Maybe i have to post this on other topic, i don't know, i m sorry if is the wrong place to my question :-\
thank you again
Sorry, excuse my bad english

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1722 on: October 17, 2020, 12:38:34 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,928,965 KM2 as at 16-Oct-2020

_____________________________________________________
A daily extent loss  in October is unusual, but has happened 12 times in the last 18 years.

_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
Thanks !
could you say what are these 12 dates?
I am curious to know if there is an increase in the frequency of these occurrences (even if I know that we cannot make a trend with 12 values), and how many are after October 15, where the gain is maximum
Maybe i have to post this on other topic, i don't know, i m sorry if is the wrong place to my question :-\
thank you again

Highlighted in red on screenshot attached. looks pretty random to me

click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1723 on: October 17, 2020, 02:49:20 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 16-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,938,403 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,938,403    km2      
-853,025    km2   <   2010's average.
-281,541    km2   <   2019
-1,872,835    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    50    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas___    45    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
Beaufort_____    25    k   gain
CAA_________   -5    k   loss
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_    11    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 50 k, 48 k less than the 2010's average gain of 98 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 853 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,873 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 150 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 282 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 157 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 16-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,101,019 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 62 k, 46 k less than the 2010's average gain of 108k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1104 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,239 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 544 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 133 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 321 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1724 on: October 17, 2020, 08:18:39 PM »
NSIDC Area Graphs

The Russian Shore


Barents. Kara, Laptev, ESS - how late will the freeze be? How fast when it does happen?

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1725 on: October 17, 2020, 08:40:27 PM »
NSIDC sea ice Area Graphs

Chukchi - refreeze behind 2010's average
Beaufort - refreeze about 2 weeks ahead of 2010's average
CAA - pretty much at 2010's average

Central Arctic- refreeze more than 2 weeks behind 2010's average
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1726 on: October 18, 2020, 05:33:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 17th, 2020:
     4,959,023 km2, an increase of 30,058 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted the 5 years with a daily lowest min in September. In million km2:
     [ 1) 2012: 3.18,  2) 2020: 3.55,  3) 2019: 3.96,  4) 2016: 4.02  &  5) 2007: 4.07 ].
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2020, 05:43:40 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1727 on: October 18, 2020, 09:49:05 AM »
NSIDC Area Graphs

The Russian Shore


Barents. Kara, Laptev, ESS - how late will the freeze be? How fast when it does happen?
The ESS, Laptev and Kara numbers are staggering.  Barents numbers are bad, but not so much by comparison.

This is no doubt already seriously throwing off northern hemisphere weather.
This space for Rent.

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1728 on: October 18, 2020, 10:15:18 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,959,023 KM2 as at 17-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 30k, 91 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 121k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,404 k, which is 719 k, 34% less than the 10 year average of 2,123 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  277 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  798 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  845 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  681 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  1,406 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 21.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 145 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.81 million km2, 1.06 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_________________________________________________________
Extent has been lowest from 11th October, and for 44 days in total this year.

The projection moves further into fantasy land as the simple projection is for a record low maximum now by over 1 million km2.  This is where the data, i.e. a low minimum and very low freeze to date (0.72 million km2 below average), is taking us.

Every day that extent gain is delayed is one day less for extent gain to occur and from a lower extent value.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1729 on: October 18, 2020, 12:08:56 PM »
Nico Sun's Arctic sea ice graph @ https://cryospherecomputing.tk/ uses NSIDC's daily area data, so gives a hint on the direction of travle of the NSIDC 5 day data I use.

And yesterday's graph shows a drop in area of nearly 40k. Another day's delay in the refreeze.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1730 on: October 18, 2020, 02:54:09 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 17-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,991,722 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,991,722    km2      
-898,256    km2   <   2010's average.
-283,257    km2   <   2019
-1,925,241    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    53    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas___    47    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    11    k   gain
Beaufort_____    26    k   gain
CAA_________   -6    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 53 k, 46 k less than the 2010's average gain of 99 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 898 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,925 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 147 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 283 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 298 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 17-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,160,826 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 60 k, 56 k less than the 2010's average gain of 116k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,161 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,286 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 558 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 129 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 476 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1731 on: October 18, 2020, 04:12:54 PM »
...mesmerizing...

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1732 on: October 18, 2020, 04:41:13 PM »
NSIDC Data - Graphs

Compare & contrast - the Beaufort & the Central Arctic regions.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1733 on: October 18, 2020, 05:43:27 PM »
NSIDC Data - Peripheral Seas - sea ice area graphs

- Okhotsk - almost zero,
- Bering - almost zero,
- Hudson Bay - almost zero,
- Baffin Bay - almost zero.

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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1734 on: October 18, 2020, 05:50:46 PM »
NSIDC Data - Peripheral Seas - sea ice area graphs

- St. Lawrence- zero,
- Greenland- at 2010's average,
- Barents - almost zero.

Greenland sea ice is more than 80% of total area of the seven seas. i.e. the freezing season is still mostly about ice export from the Central Arctic into the Greenland Sea.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1735 on: October 18, 2020, 05:55:48 PM »
Gero, it’s been a while since we’ve seen the 12 month average extent graph that I feel is one of the best snapshots of state of ASI. After the last couple of months of low extent data, and now a growing gap with all other years, it must be telling a bit of a tale.

Fingers crossed you might produce?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1736 on: October 18, 2020, 06:56:52 PM »
Gero, it’s been a while since we’ve seen the 12 month average extent graph that I feel is one of the best snapshots of state of ASI. After the last couple of months of low extent data, and now a growing gap with all other years, it must be telling a bit of a tale.

Fingers crossed you might produce?

There is a thread just for this set up by Paddy, follow the link...

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=2909.msg290324#msg290324
_________________________________________________
ps: Attached is the October monthly averages graph - 2020 average assumes average extent gains from 18th October, actual extent gains to 17th October. Record low almost guaranteed.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1737 on: October 19, 2020, 05:39:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 18th, 2020:
     4,999,690 km2, an increase of 40,667 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted the 5 years with a daily lowest min in September. In million km2:
     [ 1) 2012: 3.18,  2) 2020: 3.55,  3) 2019: 3.96,  4) 2016: 4.02  &  5) 2007: 4.07 ].
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2020, 05:49:23 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1738 on: October 19, 2020, 10:15:15 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,999,690 KM2 as at 18-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 41k, 97 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 138k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,445 k, which is 813 k, 36% less than the 10 year average of 2,258 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  367 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  852 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  970 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  790 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  1,503 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 22.6% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 144 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.72 million km2, 1.16 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
______________________________________________________
& so it goes on..... for how long?
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
« Last Edit: October 19, 2020, 10:21:55 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1739 on: October 19, 2020, 02:12:16 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 18-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,042,183 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,042,183    km2      
-952,257    km2   <   2010's average.
-311,972    km2   <   2019
-1,988,501    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    50    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas___    43    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    12    k   gain
Beaufort_____    27    k   gain
CAA_________   -10    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 50 k, 54 k less than the 2010's average gain of 104 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 952 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,989 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 146 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 312 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 448 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 18-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,204,839 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 44 k, 81 k less than the 2010's average gain of 125k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,242 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,355 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 589 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 169 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 647 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1740 on: October 20, 2020, 05:40:41 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 19th, 2020:
     5,066,151 km2, an increase of 66,461 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted the 5 years with a daily lowest min in September. In million km2:
     [ 1) 2012: 3.18,  2) 2020: 3.55,  3) 2019: 3.96,  4) 2016: 4.02  &  5) 2007: 4.07 ].
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

This is truly uncharted territory!
900K+ km2 versus 2007 & 2016; 1+ million km2 versus 2012.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2020, 06:07:12 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jdallen

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1741 on: October 20, 2020, 06:53:11 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
This is truly uncharted territory!
900K+ km2 versus 2007 & 2016; 1+ million km2 versus 2012.
Words aren't adequate.
This space for Rent.

Ktb

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1742 on: October 20, 2020, 07:40:02 AM »
64 days under 5 million km2
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1743 on: October 20, 2020, 11:47:21 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,066,151 KM2 as at 19-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 66k, 74 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 140k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,511 k, which is 883 k, 37% less than the 10 year average of 2,394 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  434 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  939 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  1,064 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  925 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  1,577 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 24.0% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 143 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.64 million km2, 1.24 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
________________________________________________________
Modest upticks in daily extent gain in the last 2 days.
Since 2007,every year's remaining freeze would lead to a record low maximum -except 2019-20.

Sea ice extent is 1.577 million km2 less than the 2010's average. - that is the area of France+Germany+Poland+UK, or more than twice the area of Texas.
That is an awful lot of ice gone missing.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1744 on: October 20, 2020, 01:15:14 PM »
JAXA Data

The 7 day trailing average of daily extent gain shows clearly why 2020 is currently at a record low.

The plume of ice extent from previous years remaining extent gains shows the nearly 4 million km2 wide range of possible outcomes from the previous 10 years,
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1745 on: October 20, 2020, 02:25:18 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 19-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,089,469 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,089,469    km2      
-1,017,439    km2   <   2010's average.
-353,761    km2   <   2019
-2,056,658    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    47    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    9    k   gain
Central Seas___    38    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
Beaufort_____    25    k   gain
CAA_________   -7    k   loss
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 47 k, 65 k less than the 2010's average gain of 112 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 1,017 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 2,057 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 170 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 354 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 593 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 19-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,251,325 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 46 k, 82 k less than the 2010's average gain of 128k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,324 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,417 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 644 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 222 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 793 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1746 on: October 21, 2020, 05:38:03 AM »
Words aren't adequate.
Thank you for the comment.  ;)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 20th, 2020:
     5,127,751 km2, an increase of 61,600 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted the 5 years with a daily lowest min in September. In million km2:
     [ 1) 2012: 3.18,  2) 2020: 3.55,  3) 2019: 3.96,  4) 2016: 4.02  &  5) 2007: 4.07 ].
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

Almost half a million km2 less than 2019 and more than a million km2 less versus 2012, 2016 and 2007!  :o
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 05:53:54 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

aslan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1747 on: October 21, 2020, 06:47:10 AM »

Almost half a million km2 less than 2019 and more than a million km2 less versus 2012, 2016 and 2007!  :o

This said, in 2007 at this time of the year, we were about 1.0 to 1.5 millions km² below the previous daily record, 2005 (something like 6 to 6.5 millions km² in 2007 versus 7.5 to 8 millions km² in 2005).

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1748 on: October 21, 2020, 10:18:55 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,127,751 KM2 as at 20-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 62k, 47 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 109k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,573 k, which is 929 k, 37% less than the 10 year average of 2,502 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  498 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  1,025 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  1,221 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  1,121 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  1,625 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 25.1% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 142 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.59 million km2, 1.28 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_________________________________________
If you look at graph Arc-4, you will see that at this time last year 2019 was lowest in the satellite record by an astonishing amount. To see two years in a row like this is very unusual.

And if you look at the table Arc-3, you will see that at this time in 2018, 2018 was lowest (just).

More than a hint that the re- freeze may be on a trend to be delayed (as various science papers have predicted)?
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 10:26:46 AM by gerontocrat »
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Shared Humanity

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1749 on: October 21, 2020, 02:25:05 PM »


More than a hint that the re- freeze may be on a trend to be delayed (as various science papers have predicted)?

We could then expect that peak daily ice growth will move into late November?