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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1750 on: October 21, 2020, 02:43:35 PM »
More than a hint that the re- freeze may be on a trend to be delayed (as various science papers have predicted)?
We could then expect that peak daily ice growth will move into late November?
I make no predictions on when re-freeze moves into high gear. All I can say is that the data below says - not yet.

NSIDC Total AREA as at 20-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,141,321 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,141,321    km2      
-1,079,184    km2   <   2010's average.
-379,746    km2   <   2019
-2,126,380    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    52    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    3    k   gain
Central Seas___    49    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____    22    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    19    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 52 k, 62 k less than the 2010's average gain of 114 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 1,079 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 2,126 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 207 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 380 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 725 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 20-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,285,827 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 35 k, 93 k less than the 2010's average gain of 128k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,417 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,491 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 724 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 288 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 943 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1751 on: October 21, 2020, 07:42:19 PM »
Some thoughts on when and where re-freeze will happen in the next few days or weeks
(based on NSIDC Extent data)


Most extent gains, though very low, are occuring in the High Arctic (first graph), and mostly from just two regions***,
- the Central Arctic (2nd graph),
- the Beaufort sea (3rd graph).

Central Arctic sea ice extent is just under 300k below maximum, and is increasing at around 12k a day. Remaining open water is mostly from the Barents to the Laptev, Not much sign of rapid extent gains there.

Beaufort sea ice extent gains have been at an impressive 20k+ per day for some time. But the sea is nearly full up ice, just 100k to the maximum of 940k. So in a few day it is likely that the Beaufort will no longer provide sgnificant extentb gains.

Could the Peripheral regional seas (Graph 4) see a major accelerationn in sea ice gains?
So far extent gains have averaged well below 10 k per day, and on average only get up to around 50k per day from mid-November.

We are just left with 5 High Arctic Regions*** to consider - Kara, Laptev, ESS, Chukchi and the CAA - see next post.
___________________________________
*** I was recently told off for referring to the Central Arctic as the Central Arctic Sea (CAS) even though I was referring to the NSIDC defined area of 3.224 million km2, not the larger Central Arctic Basin of 4.4 million as used by Wipneus in his volume and other analayses (which goes back to the areas defined by the late lamented Cryosphere Today) .

So I had a ponder - neither definitions correpsond to any political map of the Arctic Seas. So what does NSIDC call them? NSIDC in their MASIE website refers to them all as REGIONS.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1752 on: October 21, 2020, 08:04:48 PM »
Some thoughts on when and where re-freeze will happen in the next few days or weeks (continued)
(based on NSIDC Extent data)


From the above post I speculate that any sgnificant acceleration in extent gains this re-freeze season must come from just 5 seas -  - Kara, Laptev, ESS, Chukchi and the CAA -

The Kara and Laptev regions are currently stalled at minimum.
Last year the Kara went to maximum almost verically, starting about now. But on average earlier and not so spectacularly fast,  and in 2016, extent gains only started in November and were not completed until the New Year.

The Laptev has a history of very fast extent gains to maximum, but will this year be different?

The ESS looked as if the rapid re-freeze had started, but now has stalled.

The Chukchi was re-freezing even faster, but has also stalled,

The CAA extent gains were average, but in recent days there has been a significant drop, but maybe as the Beaufort closes up there will be a final rush to completion. (see next post for graph).
_____________________________________

OVERALL - I see little prospect of a major increase in extent gains for the remainder of October. November - perhaps it's all about the Atlantic front including the ESS- salinity, the (compromised?) halocline, the amount of remaining available ocean heat.

That was my speculation that belongs to me
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 08:10:06 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1753 on: October 21, 2020, 08:08:46 PM »
& here is the CAA extent graph.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1754 on: October 21, 2020, 10:40:25 PM »
...and 2016, not too long ago, also was a "slow freezer" until November, with various entries of warm air masses from the Atlantic. Please just compare 2016's path with the 2010s average on gero's latest chart.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1755 on: October 22, 2020, 05:40:26 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 21st, 2020:
     5,192,141 km2, an increase of 64,390 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted the 5 years with a daily lowest min in September. In million km2:
     [ 1) 2012: 3.18,  2) 2020: 3.55,  3) 2019: 3.96,  4) 2016: 4.02  &  5) 2007: 4.07 ].
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

P.S. If 2020 does not have an average daily increase of 106K km2 from tomorrow to October 27th, then 2020 will have a million [or more] km2 less than any other year since 1979 (on October 27th).
« Last Edit: October 22, 2020, 06:33:37 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1756 on: October 22, 2020, 09:48:08 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,192,141 KM2 as at 21-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 64k, 53 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 117k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,637 k, which is 987 k, 38% less than the 10 year average of 2,624 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  565 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  1,073 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  1,389 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  1,358 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  1,677 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 26.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 141 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.54 million km2, 1.34 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

For the 2020-21 maximum NOT to be a record low, remaining extent gain has to be more than 18.2% above the average remaining extent gain of the last 10 years
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1757 on: October 22, 2020, 10:05:36 AM »
JAXA Extent data
With only 10 days to month end, the October Monthly Average is now guaranteed to be a record low by around half a million km2, or 1 million km2 below the linear trend value for the year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1758 on: October 22, 2020, 02:09:13 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 21-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,214,858 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,214,858    km2      
-1,124,258    km2   <   2010's average.
-373,269    km2   <   2019
-2,181,640    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    74    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas___    67    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
Beaufort_____    17    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    38    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Kara_________    2    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 74 k, 45 k less than the 2010's average gain of 119 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 1,124 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 2,182 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 236 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 373 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 821 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 21-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,323,749 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 38 k, 90 k less than the 2010's average gain of 128k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,508 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,563 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 808 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 365 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 1085 k less than 2012
______________________________________
Area gain increases - but still well below average..         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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romett1

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1759 on: October 22, 2020, 08:22:03 PM »
Thanks for the updates - it's crazy to think that on average 141 days to maximum. I'm starting to think this way - Nov 1 seems to be still "hot", we can say from there about 130 days to maximum.
130 days is 7.80% less than 141 days.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1760 on: October 23, 2020, 05:36:23 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 22nd, 2020:
     5,263,107 km2, an increase of 70,966 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted the 5 years with a daily lowest min in September. In million km2:
     [ 1) 2012: 3.18,  2) 2020: 3.55,  3) 2019: 3.96,  4) 2016: 4.02  &  5) 2007: 4.07 ].
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 05:48:00 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1761 on: October 23, 2020, 07:17:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

On the following days, 2019 is going to have several increases of more than 200K km2. As a result, on October 27th, the year 2016 starts having the lead as the lowest on record.

For 2020 to have a difference of less than one million km2 versus 2016, 2020 needs to have an average increase of more than 112.5K km2 until August October 27.

Will 2020 have this average increase? If it does not have it, then on August October 27th, the year 2020 will be more than one million km2 lower than any other year on record.

Edit:
October** JCG
Thanks
« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 03:42:29 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Ktb

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1762 on: October 23, 2020, 07:26:57 AM »
October** JCG
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1763 on: October 23, 2020, 12:09:21 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,263,107 KM2 as at 22-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 71k, 64 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 135k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,708 k, which is 1,048 k, 38% less than the 10 year average of 2,757 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  615 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  1,123 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  1,546 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  1,450 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  1,741 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 27.6% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 140 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.48 million km2, 1.40 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

For the 2020-21 maximum NOT to be a record low, remaining extent gain has to be more than 19.4% above the average remaining extent gain of the last 10 years
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1764 on: October 23, 2020, 12:22:30 PM »
Looking at these charts, we are not just at #1, we are champions by a yuuuuge margin. There is a yawning gap between where we are and what used to be the record. This is scary.
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be cause

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1765 on: October 23, 2020, 12:37:52 PM »
indeed .. 2 yawning gap years in a row .. a yawning gap that continues to grow ... b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1766 on: October 23, 2020, 02:32:16 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 22-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,286,263 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,286,263    km2      
-1,176,387    km2   <   2010's average.
-374,737    km2   <   2019
-2,237,771    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    71    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas___    65    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
Beaufort_____    8    k   gain
CAA_________    7    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    44    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Kara_________    2    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 71 k, 53 k less than the 2010's average gain of 124 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 1,176 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 2,238 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 272 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 375 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 906 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 22-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,372,009 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 48 k, 84 k less than the 2010's average gain of 132k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,591 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,631 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 900 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 433 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,228 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1767 on: October 23, 2020, 03:13:01 PM »
Graphs from NSIDC Data

The gains in sea ice area and extent have been driven mostly by the Beaufort and the Central Arctic.

Beaufort sea ice extent is now only 70k below the maximum of 940k, and daily extent gain is already slowing by a lot, so will be a non-player in a week or so.
Central Arctic sea ice extent is just 250k below the maximum of 3.25 million km2. At the current daily increase of just under 20k, about 2 weeks to go.

Beaufort sea ice area is just over 200k below the maximum of 940k, and daily area gain is also already slowing significantly.  From now likely to be a minor element of area gain
Central Arctic sea ice area is just 600k below the maximum of 3.25 million km2. The daily sea ice area gain on this day was a massive 48k, so could be a major part of sea ice area fains for the next two weeks or so.

There is little or no sign as yet of other seas entering the fast lane of re-freeze.


 
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1768 on: October 24, 2020, 05:35:11 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 23rd, 2020:
     5,337,274 km2, an increase of 74,167 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted the 5 years with a daily lowest min in September. In million km2:
     [ 1) 2012: 3.18,  2) 2020: 3.55,  3) 2019: 3.96,  4) 2016: 4.02  &  5) 2007: 4.07 ].
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2020, 05:47:17 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1769 on: October 24, 2020, 09:56:09 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,337,274 KM2 as at 23-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 74k, 39 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 113k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,782 k, which is 1,093 k, 38% less than the 10 year average of 2,876 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  631 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  1,161 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  1,586 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  1,552 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  1,780 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 28.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 139 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.44 million km2, 1.44 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

For the 2020-21 maximum NOT to be a record low, remaining extent gain has to be more than 20.3% above the average remaining extent gain of the last 10 years. This is greater than any of at least the last 13 years.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1770 on: October 24, 2020, 02:28:44 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 23-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,345,534 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,345,534    km2      
-1,241,599    km2   <   2010's average.
-383,531    km2   <   2019
-2,303,434    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    59    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas___    53    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________    13    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    40    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Kara_________    3    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 59 k, 65 k less than the 2010's average gain of 124 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 1,242 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 2,303 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 338 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 384 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 998 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 23-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,439,684 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 68 k, 60 k less than the 2010's average gain of 128k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,651 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,676 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 987 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 478 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,345 k less than 2012   
____________________________________________
Note that NSIDC daily extent gain is accelerating.
Up by 92 k on the 22nd, 139k on the 23rd.
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1771 on: October 25, 2020, 04:31:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 24th, 2020:
     5,481,384 km2, a century break increase of 144,110 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum that happened on:
         1) Sep 16th, 2012: 3.18  (million km2).
         2) Sep 13th, 2020: 3.55
         3) Sep 17th, 2019: 3.96
         4) Sep   7th, 2016: 4.02
         5) Sep 17th, 2007: 4.07
   
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2020, 06:09:05 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1772 on: October 25, 2020, 09:20:22 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,481,384 KM2 as at 24-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 144k, 26 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 118k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,927 k, which is 1,053 k, 35% less than the 10 year average of 2,979 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  651 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  1,121 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  1,556 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  1,539 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  1,754 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 29.9% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 138 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.47 million km2, 1.41 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

For the 2020-21 maximum NOT to be a record low, remaining extent gain has to be more than 20.2% above the average remaining extent gain of the last 10 years. This is greater than any of at least the last 13 years.
_____________________________________________________
I didn't see that one coming - a doubling of the daily extent gain to well above average, and on the same day of the year 2019 daily extent gains started to go through the roof.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1773 on: October 25, 2020, 01:46:19 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 24-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,409,158 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,409,158    km2      
-1,300,448    km2   <   2010's average.
-391,426    km2   <   2019
-2,365,653    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    64    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    8    k   gain
Central Seas___    55    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss
CAA_________    16    k   gain
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_    37    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Kara_________    3    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 64 k, 58 k less than the 2010's average gain of 122 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 1,300 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 2,366 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 406 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 391 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 1,082 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 24-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,507,039 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 67 k, 60 k less than the 2010's average gain of 127k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,710 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,722 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1058 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 524 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,474 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

CalamityCountdown

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1774 on: October 25, 2020, 06:33:32 PM »
Gerontocrat - I have no idea how much of your day is spent on your posts, but I appreciate the fact that you dribble them out over the course of the day. Makes it easy to get to this thread by clicking on one of your posts under "recent posts". Then I usually cursor up to Juan's easy to comprehend daily post, and work my way down through your posts. Your efforts are much appreciated (as well as Juan's)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1775 on: October 26, 2020, 05:08:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 25th, 2020:

ADS (JAXA) is now 1 hour and 10 minutes late.
I am going to bed. If someone else makes the post when the data is updated.

Thanks.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: October 26, 2020, 05:40:34 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1776 on: October 26, 2020, 01:34:08 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 25-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,484,565 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,484,565    km2      
-1,348,456    km2   <   2010's average.
-426,042    km2   <   2019
-2,413,213    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    75    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    12    k   gain
Central Seas___    63    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss
CAA_________    17    k   gain
East Siberian__    9    k   gain
Central Arctic_    29    k   gain
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Kara_________    5    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 75 k, 48 k less than the 2010's average gain of 123 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 1,348 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 2,413 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 454 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 426 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 1,130 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 25-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,604,882 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 98 k, 31 k less than the 2010's average gain of 129k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,742 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,736 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1089 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 569 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,527 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

mabarnes

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1777 on: October 26, 2020, 03:05:41 PM »
JAXA differencing GIF ... for what it's worth.  Data still not up but image was ...

(click necessary to animate on some browsers)....

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1778 on: October 27, 2020, 04:38:04 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 25th, 2020:
     5,632,933 km2, a century break increase of 151,549 km2.

October 26th, 2020:
     5,769,170 km2, a century break increase of 136,237 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.
   
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 04:48:03 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1779 on: October 27, 2020, 11:44:12 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,769,170 KM2 as at 26-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 136k, 7 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 129k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 2,214 k, which is 976 k, 31% less than the 10 year average of 3,190 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  853 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  969 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  1,332 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  1,557 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  1,719 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 32.2% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 136 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.50 million km2, 1.38 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

For the 2020-21 maximum NOT to be a record low, remaining extent gain has to be more than 20.5% above the average remaining extent gain of the last 10 years. This is greater than any of at least the last 13 years.
_________________________________________
3 days of extent gains above average gains but below 2019 gains, so 2020 is #1 by a greater amount.
However, gains in 2016 were very low at this time, which means that 2020 extent is starting to play catchup with 2016, which was lowest from the 27th October.

_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1780 on: October 27, 2020, 01:25:23 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 26-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,573,553 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,573,553    km2      
-1,384,287    km2   <   2010's average.
-482,669    km2   <   2019
-2,443,110    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    89    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    13    k   gain
Central Seas___    76    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
Beaufort_____    6    k   gain
CAA_________    18    k   gain
East Siberian__    11    k   gain
Central Arctic_    21    k   gain
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Kara_________    6    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 89 k, 36 k less than the 2010's average gain of 125 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 1,384 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 2,443 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 464 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 483 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 1,154 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 26-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,705,794 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 101 k, 28 k less than the 2010's average gain of 129k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,770 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,744 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1088 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 644 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,548 k less than 2012   
_________________________________________
Area and extent daily gains continue to gradually increase but below the 10 year average.      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1781 on: October 27, 2020, 01:46:01 PM »
NSIDC Extent graphs - compare and contrast the Beaufort with the Laptev and the ESS
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1782 on: October 28, 2020, 04:32:16 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 27th, 2020:
     5,883,277 km2, a century break increase of 114,107 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.
   
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

2020: 942K km2 versus 2016 (2nd lowest). That is a huge difference!!!
« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 04:46:38 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

aslan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1783 on: October 28, 2020, 09:30:24 AM »
NSIDC Extent graphs - compare and contrast the Beaufort with the Laptev and the ESS

We can also look at it from the standpoint of a specific day to see the crash. Here it is the sum of Laptev, East Siberian and Kara seas 5 day mean of sea cie extent from NSIDC.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1784 on: October 28, 2020, 10:51:26 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,883,277 KM2 as at 27-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 114k, 9 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 123k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 2,328 k, which is 984 k, 30% less than the 10 year average of 3,312 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  950 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  942 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  1,286 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  1,685 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  1,728 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 33.4% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 135 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.49 million km2, 1.39 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

For the 2020-21 maximum NOT to be a record low, remaining extent gain has to be more than 21.0% above the average remaining extent gain of the last 10 years. This is greater than any of at least the last 13 years.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1785 on: October 28, 2020, 01:30:33 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 27-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,678,437 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,678,437    km2      
-1,403,784    km2   <   2010's average.
-540,341    km2   <   2019
-2,460,932    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    105    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    18    k   gain
Central Seas___    87    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    13    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    10    k   gain
Beaufort_____    13    k   gain
CAA_________    18    k   gain
East Siberian__    16    k   gain
Central Arctic_    19    k   gain
Laptev_______    8    k   gain
Kara_________    5    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 105 k, 19 k less than the 2010's average gain of 124 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 1,404 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 2,461 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 446 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 540 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 1,148 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 27-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,808,913 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 103 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average gain of 126k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,793 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,742 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1069 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 742 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,526 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1786 on: October 28, 2020, 04:21:33 PM »
NSIDC Extent graphs - compare and contrast the Beaufort with the Laptev and the ESS

We can also look at it from the standpoint of a specific day to see the crash. Here it is the sum of Laptev, East Siberian and Kara seas 5 day mean of sea cie extent from NSIDC.

These two dramatic drops over the past 2 decades do suggest we may be witnessing a state change in the three seas.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1787 on: October 28, 2020, 04:23:50 PM »
Very encouraging to see the dramatic jump in gains over the last few days. Hopefully this can be sustained.

coelho

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1788 on: October 28, 2020, 07:39:25 PM »

For the 2020-21 maximum NOT to be a record low, remaining extent gain has to be more than 21.0% above the average remaining extent gain of the last 10 years. This is greater than any of at least the last 13 years.
But if I understand correctly, a lot of large sees that go to near 100% ice coverage each year (Laptev, East Siberian Sea), are late. As long as it's again going to 100%, this loss compared to the average will be made up completely. So, making up a significant part of the difference is expected. Or am I missing something?

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1789 on: October 28, 2020, 10:40:13 PM »
Just assuming that Laptev and ESS (and CAA, Beaufort and Hudson) will be 100 % covered with ice early spring this will not make a difference to previous decades. The wildcards are those seas which do not necessarily freeze completely like Baffin, Okhotsk, Grønland, and maybe Kara and Chukchi. They can make a difference when it comes to the annual maximum.
 
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1790 on: October 29, 2020, 04:40:01 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 28th, 2020:
     6,015,690 km2, a century break increase of 132,413 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.
   
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 04:49:29 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Ktb

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1791 on: October 29, 2020, 06:06:29 AM »
2020 spent 95 days below 6 million km2. Previous record held by 2019 with 86 days.

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oren

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1792 on: October 29, 2020, 09:56:44 AM »
Please focus only on actual data in this thread. Discussions of expectations for the rest of the season should take place in the season thread, or in the long term season predictions thread.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1793 on: October 29, 2020, 01:50:55 PM »
Please focus only on actual data in this thread. Discussions of expectations for the rest of the season should take place in the season thread, or in the long term season predictions thread.

I'm sorry. I think I started it.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1794 on: October 29, 2020, 02:02:09 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,015,690 KM2 as at 28-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 132k, 28 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 104k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 2,461 k, which is 954 k, 28% less than the 10 year average of 3,415 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  1,047 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  825 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  1,234 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  1,755 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  1,700 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 34.4% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 134 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.52 million km2, 1.36 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

For the 2020-21 maximum NOT to be a record low, remaining extent gain has to be more than 20.9% above the average remaining extent gain of the last 10 years. This is greater than any of at least the last 13 years.

However, above mostly above average daily gains in recent days while 2016 gains are low means the 2020 extent difference with 2016 is quickly reducing.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1795 on: October 29, 2020, 02:05:05 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 28-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,803,538 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,803,538    km2      
-1,403,863    km2   <   2010's average.
-605,380    km2   <   2019
-2,462,009    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    125    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    13    k   gain
Central Seas___    112    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    12    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    14    k   gain
Beaufort_____    23    k   gain
CAA_________    19    k   gain
East Siberian__    21    k   gain
Central Arctic_    19    k   gain
Laptev_______    11    k   gain
Kara_________    5    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 125 k, 0 k less than the 2010's average gain of 125 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 1,404 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 2,462 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 400 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 605 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 1,125 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 28-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,920,829 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 112 k, 9 k less than the 2010's average gain of 121k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,801 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,730 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1037 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 865 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,479 k less than 2012   
____________________________________
Daily extent and area gains continue to increase      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1796 on: October 30, 2020, 04:36:41 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 29th, 2020:
     6,263,660 km2, a double century break increase of 247,970 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.
   
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 04:46:41 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1797 on: October 30, 2020, 10:13:32 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,263,660 KM2 as at 29-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 248k, 158 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 90k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 2,709 k, which is 794 k, 23% less than the 10 year average of 3,503 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  954 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  609 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  1,139 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  1,649 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  1,541 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 35.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 133 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.68 million km2, 1.20 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

For the 2020-21 maximum NOT to be a record low, remaining extent gain has to be more than 18.7% above the average remaining extent gain of the last 10 years. This is greater than any of at least the last 13 years.
______________________________________________________
Are we looking at 2020 following 2019 (and 2012 and 2007) but just a a few days later?

3 or 4 days of +200k daily sea ice extent gains would see 2020 extent toppled off its #1 perch by 2016.

_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1798 on: October 30, 2020, 01:34:24 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 29-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,941,137 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,941,137    km2      
-1,391,304    km2   <   2010's average.
-645,208    km2   <   2019
-2,448,062    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    138    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    13    k   gain
Central Seas___    125    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    15    k   gain
Beaufort_____    26    k   gain
CAA_________    25    k   gain
East Siberian__    29    k   gain
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
Laptev_______    11    k   gain
Kara_________    11    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 138 k, 13 k more than the 2010's average gain of 125 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 1,391 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 2,448 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 319 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 645 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 1,106 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 29-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,083,569 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 163 k, 52 k more than the 2010's average gain of 111k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,749 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,664 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 938 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 929 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,375 k less than 2012   
______________________________________________
Has the dam burst? Or is it just a couple of days of flash freezing?

Both 5 day average area and extent daily gains well above average. The DAILY extent gains in the last 2 days are spectacular.
   NSIDC daily extent change in Km2 Million
25 October 2020   0.145
26 October 2020   0.083
27 October 2020   0.104
28 October 2020   0.181
29 October 2020   0.299

This more than matches the very high extent gains recorded by JAXA.

___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1799 on: October 31, 2020, 04:52:23 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 30th, 2020:
     6,548,425 km2, a double century break increase (almost triple) of 284,765 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.
   
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 05:06:06 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.