Fram Export

[Vergent]

I checked back to 2007. No year lost this much thick ice, to the Fram, at this time of year.

Vergent

[Espen]

Yes Vergent I noticed this this morning, the Bordeaux area is getting smaller and smaller, but the Goathead remains! It is like the whole thing is sucked out!

[Neven]

Yes, there was a pretty hefty Beaufort Gyre in February and especially March, causing the cracking, but also pushing a lot of ice out towards Fram:

[solartim27]

I think this will be a big year for Fram export with the ice so broken up.  All it needs is the wind to blow that way, and this week it is doing that, so I thought I would bump this thread up.  This was posted on the Nares Strait thread, but I thought it works better here.

It looks to me that wind direction will be a major factor for this years melt.  I can't find very good overlaps on Polar View for the Fram area, but here is a look at what just 7 hours of wind did on the 15th to the northwest of Svalbard, the scenes shift over, but the larger cracks overlap.  I'll cross post this over in the Fram thread.

[Jim Hunt]

I'll try cross post my February 2015 AMSR2 animation also!



Which seems to work  Maybe I'll make the next iteration a bit taller 

[Jim Hunt]

I ended up making it wider instead!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/02/shock-news-ijis-arctic-sea-ice-extent-lowest-ever/

[solartim27]

4 days in the Fram from the DMI North East Water page.  Hey, gifs are fun!  That's a lot more ice going Bye Bye than over at Nares.  I guess the file size is too big for direct animation, you'll need to click.

On the 14th, there is an oval shape, and a 'South Carolina' shape midway on the right, I thought they were smashed, but found them on the next page down at Joekelbugt.  Anyone have estimates on distance?  This extra ice should fix the extent drop.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Joekelbugt/201502140703.NOAA.jpg

[viddaloo]

Check out this cyclone in the Fram this morning.



Update: We now have 2 cyclones operating in the ice–edge! The other one is in the Barentz. Will be interesting to see what they'll do for the export and extent figures; I guess it could go either way? Having more ice spread out by the storms could boost extent numerically for the first couple of days, at least locally. In the long run it will increase the melt.

[wili]

Yeah, that wind pattern ought to move a lot of ice out of the strait.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-47.64,50.78,278

[solartim27]

The wind from last week was in the Denmark strait. Fram has been pretty calm with easterlies compacting the ice. Looks like some serious export shaping up for this week though.

Interesting article about an ocean currents study from 2011. Results are on the journals link.
http://www.whoi.edu/denmarkstrait/

[solartim27]

NOAA Images from the North East Water page of DMI showing how stable Fram has been from 2/24 - 3/1.  You can see the wind starting to kick in today.  Click to animate.

[solartim27]

Lots of wind in Fram this weekend  Should see some serious export.
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/

[solartim27]

Winds building up in Fram all week, I had been expecting more motion from the cyclone, but there was a storm south of Iceland blowing to the north.  Now that everything is chopped to bits it will be very interesting.  This forecast image is for Friday.

[solartim27]

5 Days in Fram, Jun 9 - 13.  Click to animate.

[Tor Bejnar]

The modeled ice flow YouTube movie shown in [referenced at the end of] this post in the "Drift, Deformation and Fracture of Sea Ice" thread shows the significance of Fram Strait export.

This recent article about sea ice leads/fractures looks interesting:

https://www.dkrz.de/about-en/media/galerie/Vis/icesheet/sea-ice-leads

Despite of the importance of sea ice leads, relatively little is known on how well they can be represented by commonly used sea ice models. The goal of this work is to show that small scale sea ice linear features can be simulated by the traditional sea ice models with a certain skill. The prerequisite is a sufficiently high horizontal resolution along with numerical convergence of sea ice solvers which is frequently neglected. We simulate Arctic sea ice using the elastic-visco-plastic (EVP) approach in a global sea ice ocean model at a local resolution of 4.5 km and show that many characteristics of the simulated 'cracks' agree with the available observations already at this resolution. This allows us to discuss the variability and trend of the lead features from long model-generated time series.

(Their paper is here, Wang et al. 2016).  On the above webpage they also have a video of their simulation for 2005-2014:

[Alas, I don't know how to show the opening screen of the youtube... {Edit: so that the Youtube can be watched right there - IOW I don't know how to embed a Youtube.}]

[magnamentis]

[Alas, I don't know how to show the opening screen of the youtube...]

is it this what you mean ? sorry if not just let me know if i can help :-)

[Jim Hunt]

I don't know how to embed a Youtube.}][/size]

Remove the 's' from "https" in the link YouTube gives you:

[Tor Bejnar]

...
Remove the 's' from "https" in the link YouTube gives you:
...

Thanks so much!  (I read/watched four "how to embed a YouTube", and not one gave this advice.)

[johnm33]

Thanks to A-Team we can see that where the advancing waters of the Atlantic meet the edge of the continental shelf the melt of the spreading ice stops. Neither the ice or the melt extends much beyond that line. I wondered what happened next, there's a whole bunch of products here http://marine.copernicus.eu/web/69-interactive-catalogue.php which help. I haven't found a measure of temp. anom. but the salinity products are interesting.
This one shows the spread of the now less saline water into the Nansen basin, where again it seems defined by the bathymetry, specifically the arctic mid ocean ridge. Some of it appears to be spreading to the east north of Laptev, the rest out of Fram.
 
added:- Best bathymetry http://www.arctic.io/maps/bathymetry/

[romett1]

I remember somebody suggested that we should create new topic "Fram Strait". I found the idea interesting and wanted to create it, but saw that it's already existing. Here is movement over the last 3 days (Worldview). But of course any kind of discussion expected, not only pictures.

[Hyperion]

Gosh. Thanks for hauling this up Romett. That salinity product is interesting. Seems the halocline has advanced significantly in 11 months. Well past the continental shelf edge at 5m depth. Almost to Bering strait at 50m. That long front where its flaming the ice will be cooling the incoming salty stuff. Subducting it. Imho this could be accelerating the amoc and setting up big incoming current momentum. Preparing it to flood the whole basin come sept. The Halocline looks in serious danger.

[Andreas T]

I have made another animation of worldview AMSR2 images for May.
The one for April is here:

I have experimented with tracking floes in AMSR images on Worldview
 https://go.nasa.gov/2oRASQc
squashing the colour scale to 155 / 270K

I have produced this animation with an attempt at measuring area exported through Fram strait in the 30 days from 2. April to 2. May which surprised me with a smaller area export than March
Northern edge of the marked floes on 2. April was 82.9N i.e. 322km from their position on 2. May (the date chosen for visibility)
The marked area is 136500 square km
I have marked points which do not lie on the 80N parallel on 2. 5. because I wanted to see what happens between the converging floes.
It would be interesting to look at the area north of Svalbard where ice is compacting and PIOMAS and Cryosat are showing thickness anomalies but it is difficult to track floes there, the compaction it seems makes it look more amorphous in the AMSR images (weather effects are not helping either)
Svalbard has seen snowfalls in April, possibly that area too?

This of course is area I would expect volume exported to be larger because thicker ice is leaving, and that is shown by Wipneus in the PIOMAS thread.

[romett1]

Fram Strait over the last 3 days (May 4 - May 6), Worldview.

[Bruce Steele]

Hyperion, I cannot reconcile the large differences between the salinity charts you linked above and the data from the one remaining ITP Buoy still sending temperature / salinity contours.
At 5 meters the #97 ITP is showing 28.5 which is about what this buoy and every other buoy I have watched in the Beaufort has shown for surface waters for as long as the ITP program has sent us data...for this time of year.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136

If I am reading the model chart you linked correctly it is showing salinity in the Beaufort at 5 meters between 32 and 34.7  The 50 meter chart also seems far too saline.
This is again a case of choosing between a well tested and calibrated data base built with years of temperature and salinity readings from buoys and a model based upon I do not know what.

ps  This should be posted on another thread because Fram Export isn't where it belongs.

[Hyperion]

If I am reading the model chart you linked correctly it is showing salinity in the Beaufort at 5 meters between 32 and 34.7  The 50 meter chart also seems far too saline.
This is again a case of choosing between a well tested and calibrated data base built with years of temperature and salinity readings from buoys and a model based upon I do not know what.

ps  This should be posted on another thread because Fram Export isn't where it belongs.

Agreed Bruce. My experience of Austrians is if you suggest anything outside the neat boxes they are packaging everything in, a glazed look, stare into space, and "THIS IS NOT CORRECT!" response ensues  . So bottom up reduction-ism is the order of the day. A holistic systems approach might deserve its own thread also. 



https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2021.0.html

[Neven]

It's true what you say about Austrians, but not all of them, and none of those are here on this forum. Unless you were referring to me, but I'm not Austrian. 

[Ninebelowzero]

Fram Export.

Great name for a Danish lager served up on a hot Sunny day in a glass topped with slushy ice.

[Andreas T]

this looks interesting, graphs of temps and flowrates, unfortunately the links on this page don't seem to work.
http://arctic-roos.org/members/AWI

[romett1]

Fram Strait May 5 - May 7, Worldview.

[romett1]

Fram Strait May 6 - May 8, Worldview.

[romett1]

Fram Strait May 7 - May 9, Worldview.

[DoomInTheUK]

It's like watching sand through an egg-timer.

[romett1]

Fram Strait May 8 - May 10, Worldview.

[romett1]

Fram Strait May 9 - May 11, Worldview.

[Andreas T]

These  tracks are buoys placed in October 2016 by The Alfred Wegener Institute
http://data.meereisportal.de/gallery/index_new.php?lang=en_US&active-tab1=method&active-tab2=buoy
T39 was at 86.7N 57.8E on 6. October
T44 was at 87.4N 65.6E on 6. October

T39 crosses 80N on the 7. May, and on the 11. May it turns back towards the northeast. This indicates that is has reached the edge of the pack and is is swept back in one of the eddies which can be seen in the fragments which in the satellite images have the appearence of "froth"

[Tor Bejnar]

This cross post from a year ago (referencing a 2015 paper) may be useful to us.  I've included figures from the paper showing seasonal changes in Fram export.  We are headed into the traditional slow export season, it shows. [edit: re-snagged the figures - now attached.]

From August of last year

http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/9/4205/2015/tcd-9-4205-2015-print.pdf

Fram Strait spring ice export and
September Arctic sea ice
M. H. Halvorsen1
, L. H. Smedsrud1,2,3
, R. Zhang4
, and K. Kloster5

The Arctic Basin exports ∼ 10 % of the sea ice area southwards annually through Fram
Strait. A larger than normal export decreases the remaining mean thickness and ice
area. A new updated timeseries from 1979–2013 of Fram Strait sea ice area export
shows an overall increase until today, and that more than 1 million km2
5 has been exported
annually in recent years. The new timeseries has been constructed from high
resolution radar satellite imagery of sea ice drift across 79◦ N from 2004–2013, regressed
on the observed cross-strait surface pressure difference, and shows an increasing
trend of 7 % per decade. The trend is caused by higher southward ice drift
10 speeds due to stronger southward geostrophic winds, largely explained by increasing
surface pressure on Greenland. Spring and summer area export increases more
(∼ 14 % per decade) than in autumn and winter, and these export anomalies have
a large influence on the following September mean ice extent.

[romett1]

Strong favorable winds last 24 hours and intensive Fram export again. Some 3 days ago export was bit stalled/quiet, as winds were from south. Looking through earth.nullschool, we should have decent export this week. Images: Worldview, May 20 - May 22.

[Tfisher]

Average wind speed over the next 5 days is forecast over 5 m/s (11mph) thru Fram.

[Paddy]

Are there any numbers to be had on total export this year compared to previous?

[romett1]

Fram export has been strong over the last 6 days. I tracked one ice sheet, it has traveled about 135 km over the last 6 days, this is about 23 km per day or 26 cm per second. And forecasted low pressure developing over the weekend means increased/favorable wind speed until at least May 31. Images: Worldview, May 20 - May 26.

[Ice Shieldz]

Paddy, this from our most outstanding Wipneus

The monthly figure does not show a particular large or small Fram export, bit below 2016 a bit above 2015, quite normal.

I will look at the daily data, see if that shows something dramatic.
 https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg112187.html#msg112187

The average export can in part be attributed to the diminished thickness of the ice being exported.  I initially thought that the increased mobility of the pack along with all the storms, and activity through the Fram would have driven numbers up more.

and romett1 thanks for all the Fram updates!

[Andreas T]

Another animation of passive microwave (AMSR2) images from worldview  https://go.nasa.gov/2rDovs7
not yet marked any floes but the movement is visible following a distinct probably older floe towards its doom across the 80th parallel.
What stands out for me is the comparison with the PIOMAS animation by Wipneus, which seems to have less movement. This is possibly due to compaction where floes converge and dispersion as they accelerate in Fram strait.

[seaicesailor]

Another animation of passive microwave (AMSR2) images from worldview  https://go.nasa.gov/2rDovs7
not yet marked any floes but the movement is visible following a distinct probably older floe towards its doom across the 80th parallel.
What stands out for me is the comparison with the PIOMAS animation by Wipneus, which seems to have less movement. This is possibly due to compaction where floes converge and dispersion as they accelerate in Fram strait.

Yes, it is the fact that Piomas is gridded and the only way to account correctly for the increase in spacing of the accelerating floes is: reduction of grid effective thickness.

[magnamentis]

Paddy, this from our most outstanding Wipneus

The monthly figure does not show a particular large or small Fram export, bit below 2016 a bit above 2015, quite normal.

I will look at the daily data, see if that shows something dramatic.
 https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg112187.html#msg112187

The average export can in part be attributed to the diminished thickness of the ice being exported.  I initially thought that the increased mobility of the pack along with all the storms, and activity through the Fram would have driven numbers up more.

and romett1 thanks for all the Fram updates!

the currently exported and/or ready to be exported ice is thicker than usual, at least that's how it appears on WIP's image and how it could be expected from earlier piomas images

[Andreas T]

as a heads up about some interesting research in this area, here is a link to a press release by the AWI
https://www.awi.de/nc/en/about-us/service/press/press-release/arktisches-meereis-erneut-stark-abgeschmolzen.html

......
During the past weeks, sea-ice thickness measurements were the main topic of the TIFAX (Thick Ice Feeding Arctic Export) campaign, which involved research aircraft using laser scanners and a towed electromagnetic probe. In the area surveyed, which lies to the north of the Fram Strait between Greenland and Svalbard, the sea-ice thickness was ca. 1.7 metres, roughly 50 centimetres more than was recorded in 2016. This is most likely due in part to a higher percentage of several-year-old ice in the area. Nevertheless, the measured thickness is ca. 30 per cent lower than between 2001 and 2004. As Marcel Nicolaus summarises, “Despite the warm winter, the sea ice wasn’t unusually thin. Our explanation is that the small and thin ice coverage from the previous summer – the second-smallest area ever recorded – grew faster and thicker than in other years, since thin ice grows faster than thick ice.”

[Tom_Mazanec]

More on Fram Strait:
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/08/world/arctic-beneath-ice-intl/index.html

[b_lumenkraft]

More on Fram Strait:
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/08/world/arctic-beneath-ice-intl/index.html

Woah, beautiful pictures in this video.

[Glen Koehler]

Maybe this belongs in "Stupid Questions", but... given the importance of Farm Strait export, there must be a daily updated graph showing estimates of how much is moving out the Arctic and into the Atlantic ice killing zones.  Any suggestions of where to see that?

[oren]

Wipneus posts such a graph in the PIOMAS thread as part of each volume data update - normally twice a month. Note that as the ice north of the export line becomes thinner, the export volume tends to be below the long-term average.

Here is a link to the latest graph.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg203472.html#msg203472

[johnm33]

" Any suggestions of where to see that?"
Both ice and water?