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ChrisReynolds

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #350 on: March 03, 2022, 07:53:32 PM »
Why can't you Americans get it together and put the HYCOM option in Nullschool? 😡
Why can't you be civilized in your communication?

Why don't people do things themselves instead demanding of others? ;D

When a small group of us from this community got together and cracked how to handle the gridded PIOMAS data the results were very productive.

Thanks all for an interesting thread. I'd totally forgotten about HYCOM.

Jim Hunt

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #351 on: March 04, 2022, 04:28:49 PM »
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

johnm33

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #352 on: May 04, 2022, 03:27:03 PM »
Hycom SSS there's quite some vortice occuring south[40E] of the pole and what appears to be signiicant freshwater breakout at Jakobshvn.

Glen Koehler

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #353 on: May 07, 2022, 08:10:25 PM »
   
not really the right thread but here's mercator modelled thickness, sep1-may5  (2.4MB)
     The daily data thread covers Extent and Area.  PIOMAS thread used to cover Volume until that thread went silent last summer.  (I don't understand why loss of Google site could not be replaced, I wish Wipneus would come back.) 

     How about we rename the HYCOM thread the Thickness thread?  It could still be the place for discussing HYCOM, but would also be the thread to show items like Unicorn's excellent mercator thickness map, which I hope will be updated monthly.

    Here are some thickness data from last fall which I don't think received much attention.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2021/10/

    Finally, while Extent currently looks pretty "healthy", the ice age thickness chart from NSIDC reminds us that a higher than ever portion of that Extent is First Year Ice.  Looks can be deceiving when looking at a 3D entity with a 2D measurement.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2022, 09:31:56 PM by Glen Koehler »
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Steven

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #354 on: May 07, 2022, 09:46:08 PM »
As the freezing season in the Arctic Ocean is running on its last legs, I'll be updating the regional csv files again twice per month.

Regional HYCOM volume:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2pt2irkyya1258g/hycom_regional_volume.csv

Regional HYCOM area:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2qpwcjwnw6ujut6/hycom_regional_area.csv

---

Additionally, the image below shows the HYCOM ice thickness anomaly for yesterday (6 May 2022) relative to the average for the past 4 years for this date (6 May 2018-2021).  So green color = thicker ice in 2022 than in previous years, while blue color = thinner ice in 2022 than in previous years.


oren

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #355 on: May 07, 2022, 09:53:45 PM »
Steven - thanks a lot, very helpful.
Glen - I prefer this thread to remain a Hycom thread. Thickness estimates are quite variable and model-dependent, so best to keep each source in its own location. General thickness and ice age issues can go in another thread which can be opened.

Glen Koehler

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #356 on: May 07, 2022, 11:33:27 PM »
As the freezing season in the Arctic Ocean is running on its last legs, I'll be updating the regional csv files again twice per month.

Regional HYCOM volume:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2pt2irkyya1258g/hycom_regional_volume.csv

Regional HYCOM area:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2qpwcjwnw6ujut6/hycom_regional_area.csv
Nice!  Thanks!
RE Oren - Got it.  If somebody wants to open a thickness thread I'll read it, but I won't open one because that implies I would regularly have stuff to populate it.  I hope Uniquorn will keep posting the Mercator thickness.
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Freegrass

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #357 on: May 08, 2022, 11:11:20 AM »
As the freezing season in the Arctic Ocean is running on its last legs, I'll be updating the regional csv files again twice per month.

Regional HYCOM volume:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2pt2irkyya1258g/hycom_regional_volume.csv

Regional HYCOM area:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2qpwcjwnw6ujut6/hycom_regional_area.csv

---

Additionally, the image below shows the HYCOM ice thickness anomaly for yesterday (6 May 2022) relative to the average for the past 4 years for this date (6 May 2018-2021).  So green color = thicker ice in 2022 than in previous years, while blue color = thinner ice in 2022 than in previous years.


That's good news Steven. Thanks for that! Hope Gerontocrat can make the graphs again. Would love to see the difference with previous years. You're anomaly map is already doing a great job at that. Thank you!
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gerontocrat

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #358 on: May 08, 2022, 12:57:32 PM »
The  graphs from Steven's HYCOM analyses show that so far 2022 volume and thickness is consistently above 2021.

Here are the graphs for the total Arctic.

N.B. My understanding is that as the HYCOM system was modified (improved) data for previous years was not recalculated (as is done with most of the data produced by NOAA, NSIDC etc).
Hence the graph line for mid-2014 to mid-2015 should be taken with a large pinch of salt.

click images to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #359 on: May 08, 2022, 01:07:51 PM »
And here are the graphs for the 7 seas of the High Arctic.

N.B. My understanding is that as the HYCOM system was modified (improved) data for previous years was not recalculated (as is done with most of the data produced by NOAA, NSIDC etc).
Hence the graph line for mid-2014 to mid-2015 should be taken with a large pinch of salt.

click images to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #360 on: May 08, 2022, 01:09:29 PM »
The  graphs from Steven's HYCOM analyses show that so far 2022 volume and thickness is consistently above 2021.

Here are the graphs for the 7 Peripheral seas of the Arctic.

N.B. My understanding is that as the HYCOM system was modified (improved) data for previous years was not recalculated (as is done with most of the data produced by NOAA, NSIDC etc).
Hence the graph line for mid-2014 to mid-2015 should be taken with a large pinch of salt.

click images to enlarge
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Freegrass

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #361 on: May 08, 2022, 10:26:07 PM »
Thanks Gero! I would just leave out those early years, they have no value at all in the overal picture. All they do is confuse people and mess up your graphs.
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uniquorn

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #362 on: May 28, 2022, 10:52:35 PM »
Interesting development on HYCOM thickness near 80N 180 somewhat validated by worldview
https://go.nasa.gov/3LUOPnd  (slight contrast)
« Last Edit: May 28, 2022, 10:58:48 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #363 on: May 28, 2022, 11:13:18 PM »
ns wind 45km/h

Freegrass

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #364 on: May 29, 2022, 01:03:48 AM »
Interesting development on HYCOM thickness near 80N 180 somewhat validated by worldview
https://go.nasa.gov/3LUOPnd  (slight contrast)
So happy you noticed that as well Uniquorn! I wanted to post something about that, but I wasn't sure if it would have been appreciated here considering the skepticism for HYCOM on this forum... The dispersion of the ice by those LPSs was picked up nicely by HYCOM. I found it amazing that HYCOM picked this up...  :)

I just wish HYCOM would fix the problems they have with fast ice... Not sure why they can't get that right...  :-[
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

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Freegrass

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #365 on: May 29, 2022, 01:49:47 AM »
And just one more thing... That ice isn't gone!. It just got dispersed... It didn't melt... It just got displaced and probably stacked up somewhere else... So keep that in mind that it'll probably come back one day...

That's how I read HYCOM...
The model isn't perfect, so keep that in the back of you mind! That ice has got to come back someday... Because it didn't melt...

It's a flawed model. But it does help me to read the ice... Just know that the model isn't perfect... You have to fill in the gaps yourself...

I don't know how my brain does it, but somehow my brain fills in the gaps...

It's whiskey day... Hope I'm still making sense a little...
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

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johnm33

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #366 on: May 29, 2022, 10:35:36 AM »
Thinking of the ocean it looks very much like a spouting out event took place though at that scale I guess it was rather subdued. Sometimes there's a kind of yinyang effect where there's an 'implosion'/dimple in the water before the spout, you can often see these [spouts] at the change of tide, at a very small scale they appear like satellite dishes with a water 'antenna' emanating from the center. So I suspect a change of direction, of ocean movement, caused a series of waves which caught up on one another leading first to a depression/compression event on the surface, then that pressure event 'lost ground' to the rotating frame and emerged to raise/expand the surface. 

uniquorn

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #367 on: May 29, 2022, 01:22:05 PM »
Seems unlikely to be any 'spouting' with a high of 1016hPa and a low of 1004, more an indication of the structural integrity of the 'ice pack' these days.

AWI AMSR2 SIC(LEADS50%invertedcolour) puts it more into perspective. This is not a melting event but there is little chance of refreeze in the small leads from here. This will be the largest floe size in this area for the start of the melting season.

added rammb, heavy contrast
https://col.st/Vb8eg
« Last Edit: May 29, 2022, 02:51:56 PM by uniquorn »

Freegrass

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #368 on: June 09, 2022, 02:40:19 AM »
Interesting development on HYCOM thickness near 80N 180 somewhat validated by worldview
https://go.nasa.gov/3LUOPnd  (slight contrast)
The carnage that this storm has left behind is starting to show now...

https://go.nasa.gov/39fSgHK
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nadir

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #369 on: September 17, 2022, 04:39:46 PM »
I can’t access the hycom website. Has this service been halted or moved somewhere else?

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #370 on: September 18, 2022, 02:47:21 AM »
I can’t access the hycom website. Has this service been halted or moved somewhere else?
I could not access it either. It is a military site and I have noticed access can become restricted at times. Waiting a day or two has worked in the past.

Freegrass

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #371 on: September 18, 2022, 01:07:13 PM »
There's nothing wrong with the HYCOM site. The data site we use is from a user outside of HYCOM I think, and that site is indeed offline now. It happens sometimes...

Although... How can a site start with www7320.something?

https://www.hycom.org/
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html
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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #372 on: September 19, 2022, 04:43:36 AM »
.mil is a military designation

Freegrass

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #373 on: September 19, 2022, 10:38:27 AM »
.mil is a military designation
Yes, it looks like that's also an official site from the military. I thought it was a user site.
Never noticed the number after WWW. I didn't know that was possible.
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

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Jim Hunt

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #374 on: September 19, 2022, 06:29:27 PM »
Hycom is back. Perhaps because the US Navy are now back at their screens after a break over the weekend?
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johnm33

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #375 on: April 16, 2023, 11:17:23 PM »
Lookin at salinity, seems like Jakobshvn is primed.

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #376 on: April 17, 2023, 12:56:07 AM »
for future reference ...

I can’t access the hycom website. Has this service been halted or moved somewhere else?
I could not access it either. It is a military site and I have noticed access can become restricted at times. Waiting a day or two has worked in the past.

HYCOM is a military site. (NRLSSC) The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) detachment at John C. Stennis Space Center (SSC), Mississippi shuts down HYCOM when Russia is doing war games in the arctic. NRLSSC Dept 7320 is responsible for satellite data interpretation. No sense making it easy for them.

Note date...

Russia conducts military drills in Arctic sea opposite Alaska
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-conducts-military-drills-arctic-sea-opposite-alaska-2022-09-16/

Sept 16, 2022 (Reuters) - Russian nuclear-powered submarines fired cruise missiles in the Arctic on Friday as part of military drills designed to test Moscow's readiness for a possible conflict in its icy northern waters, the defence ministry said.

The drills, named Umka-2022, took place in the Chukchi Sea, an eastern stretch of the Arctic Ocean that separates Russia from the U.S. state of Alaska.

---------------------------------------------------

If WWIII should be in the plan, HYCOM will be down
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uniquorn

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #377 on: April 23, 2023, 11:50:03 AM »
Interesting pre-print. Has a detailed round up of sea ice products from section 3, page 9.

A Local Analytical Optimal Nudging for assimilating AMSR2 sea ice concentration in a high-resolution pan-Arctic coupled ocean (HYCOM 2.2.98) and sea ice (CICE 5.1.2) model
Keguang Wang1,*, Alfatih Ali2, and Caixin Wang1
https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2023-11/tc-2023-11.pdf

Quote
Abstract.
A Local Analytical Optimal Nudging (LAON) is introduced and thoroughly evaluated for assimilating the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Norwegian High-resolution pan-Arctic ocean and sea ice Prediction System (NorHAPS). NorHAPS is a developing high-resolution (3 − 5 km) pan-Arctic coupled ocean and sea ice modeling and prediction system based on the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM Version 2.2.98) and the Los Alamos multi-category sea ice model (CICE Version 5.1.2), with the LAON for data assimilation. In this study, our focus is on5 the LAON assimilation of AMSR2 SIC, which is designed to update the model SIC in every time step such that the analysis will eventually reach the optimal estimate. The SIC innovation (model minus observation) is designed to be proportionally distributed to the multiple sea ice categories.
A twin experiment is performed with and without the LAON assimilation for the period 1 January 2021 to 30 April 2022.
The results show that the LAON assimilation greatly improves the simulated sea ice concentration, extent, area, thickness and10 volume, as well as the sea surface temperature (SST). It also produces significantly more accurate sea ice edge and marginal zone (MIZ) than the observed AMSR2 SIC that is assimilated when evaluated against the Norwegian Ice Service (NIS) ice chart. The results are also compared with the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) operational SIC analyses from NEMO, TOPAZ4 and neXtSIM which use ensemble Kalman filters and direct insertion for data assimilation.
It is shown that the LAON assimilation produces significantly lower integrated ice edge error (IIEE) and integrated MIZ error15 (IME) than the CMEMS SIC analyses when evaluated against the NIS ice chart. The LAON also produces a continuous and smooth evolution of sub-daily SIC, which avoids abrupt jumps often seen in other assimilated products. This efficient and accurate method is promising for data assimilation in global and high-resolution models.

Freegrass

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #378 on: April 24, 2023, 02:32:02 PM »
Great find Uniquorn! I was hoping for a debate on this, so I could understand it better. Am I understanding it correctly that they will make HYCOM more accurate, and then more specifically the fast ice? That would be a good thing, because HYCOM is terrible at that.

Quote
It also produces significantly more accurate sea ice edge
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johnm33

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #379 on: May 13, 2023, 12:11:15 PM »
1. Looks like Pacific waters are pushing close to CAA meeting resistance and causing melt.

2. and has caused the ice to stretch out as so much moves towards Fram.
 switched animations to gifs from links to Hycom.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2023, 09:37:32 AM by johnm33 »

uniquorn

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #380 on: May 13, 2023, 10:50:22 PM »
Might be unrelated but whoi top5 picked this warm eddy up a bit further north at 79.08N -132.31 on apr17.

It has a more defined temp profile, salinity changes at surface are small.

added full date range of near surface for ref. (different scale vmin=27.35, vmax=28.65)
« Last Edit: May 13, 2023, 11:05:52 PM by uniquorn »

johnm33

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #381 on: May 14, 2023, 12:43:00 AM »
As you know I see the blue 'stripes' as internal wave forms, I think the orthogonal 'stripes' add weight to that. I suspect that energy [am?] moves along the waves rather like magnetism around a live wire and tthat's what generates the orthogonal waves. The area of interest had a host of cross hatch internal waves at the time of the melt so perhaps the melt was caused by a series of 'spouting out' forms emerging from the depths, so maybe not Pacific penetration, though I still suspect that that's what caused the waves.

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #382 on: May 21, 2023, 10:15:33 PM »
from Hycom a gif that shows, towards the end the ice beggining to open from it's center of expansion, as ice on the Barents side retreats faster than freezing takes place. I think.

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #383 on: May 21, 2023, 10:37:55 PM »
not the first opening in the outlook lately @ the centre of anticipated low . Where's the ice going ? Hycom has it exported into the CAB .. Shirley some big mistake (for now ).
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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #384 on: May 23, 2023, 10:34:29 AM »
There seems to be an increased flow in from the Pacific side, it's now affecting the Amundsen tidal gyre, which I'm guessing is now drawing in the current from the west and pumping it out where meeting resistance it turns north. So an overall increase of pressure on the 'garlic press'. here it's difficult to induce flow because the main channel follows, more or less, a parallel which calls for a powerful flow of southern water to overcome both the inertia of 'resident' waters the dampening effect of waters driven into that channel from the north and the earths tangential rotation speed at that latitude. Last year the channel cleared so it's cover may not be very robust so if the Pacific influx persists it's possible there may be enough kinetic energy to sweep the resident ice through to Baffin, allowing for the possiblity of clearing out the garlic press and reducing the pressure of the ice on the Barents island chain and freeing the ice to rotate and flow throuh Fram more readily.
click
« Last Edit: May 24, 2023, 10:42:10 AM by johnm33 »

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #385 on: May 24, 2023, 10:40:06 AM »
I chose the depth to illustrate the routes into the Arctic, It's a model so built on expectations since there's not enough sensors in place to do real-time, but probably enough to make it much better than my guesswork. It's 4hourly.
The second is 'tuned' to the slow pace of flow south across the CAA front, again 4hourly.
Just for comparison to above Hycom.

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #386 on: July 19, 2023, 06:19:26 AM »
Has anyone checked out the regional products on the HYCOM site recently? Their Beaufort Sea forecast has that big blob of older thicker ice getting decimated over the next few days, curious to see whether that comes to pass or not. Feels like many recent seasons that Beaufort arm has held steady through September to some degree, would be a change in pace to see it mostly go up in smoke before August even starts

Edit: after watching again it seems the damage may already be done when looking closer at the dates. Concerning to say the least since most of the gif is a hindcast with the last few frames initiated yesterday (17-Jul)

Click to play gif:

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #387 on: August 02, 2023, 10:59:26 AM »
Sea ice thickness and salinity
I saw what I took to be a pair of glitches in the salinity gif but looking closer at the two I saw that there was a possibility of a pair of strong pulses, of Atl. waters?, being blocked from entering the Arctic proper. There are indications along the ESS shelf slope of increased Pacific waters causing melt as they mix with Atl. coming from the opposite direction. The ice is looking very thin so subject to wind pressure. IF it's true that more Pacific waters are entering then they may build sufficient pressure to force movement between McLure/Lancaster.
Glitch is more likely, I checked the snapshot archive it looks like many dailies are missing and they ran with the predictions they had.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2023, 09:21:13 PM by johnm33 »

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #388 on: August 30, 2023, 12:04:37 PM »
Thickness and SSS which looks very different to last year.

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #389 on: August 30, 2023, 01:30:04 PM »
Hycom has been a mass/mess of glitches this year as well as having the garlic press open and active since April .
There is no death , the Son of God is We .

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #390 on: September 02, 2023, 09:01:07 PM »
Latest run looks realistic !
There is no death , the Son of God is We .

oren

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #391 on: September 03, 2023, 02:03:14 AM »
Hycom can't recognize static ice, a major deficiency in the model. I hope they fix it at some point.

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Re: HYCOM
« Reply #392 on: March 23, 2024, 07:02:36 PM »
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... is the welcome I received from HYCOM today
There is no death , the Son of God is We .